FX Expert Funded

June 2024

Weekly Market Outlook (01-05 July)

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Swiss Retail Sales, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, Eurozone CPI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings, Fed Chair Powell.Wednesday: Australia Retail Sales, China Caixin Services PMI, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, US Jobless Claims, US ISM Services PMI, FOMC Meeting Minutes.Thursday: […]

Weekly Market Outlook (01-05 July) Read More »

Newsquawk Week Ahead: French & UK elections, US ISM & NFP, EZ CPI, FOMC Minutes

Week Ahead 1st-5th July: Sun: French Parliamentary ElectionMon: Canada Day; Japanese Tankan (Q2), Japanese, Chinese Caixin, EZ, UK & US Manufacturing Final PMI (June), German Prelim. CPI (June), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)Tue: RBA Minutes (June), Australian & Canadian Manufacturing PMI Final (June), EZ Flash CPI (June), Unemployment Rate (May), US JOLTS Job Openings (May)Wed:

Newsquawk Week Ahead: French & UK elections, US ISM & NFP, EZ CPI, FOMC Minutes Read More »

MUFG: EUR/USD outlook amid French elections and June NFP print

MUFG discusses the potential impact of the French elections and the June NFP print on EUR/USD. The focus is on the risk premium already priced into EUR/USD and how the election results could influence further movements. Key Points: Current Situation: Stabilization: EUR/USD has stabilized around the 1.0700 level after initially dropping by two big figures

MUFG: EUR/USD outlook amid French elections and June NFP print Read More »

At the close: S&P 500 reverses lower after touching a fresh record high

Closing changes: S&P 500 down 0.4%Nasdaq down 0.7%Russell 2000 +0.1%DJIA -0.1%Toronto TSX Comp -0.5% The S&P 500 closed the half-year up a tidy 14% but today’s reversal from an all-time high is somewhat ominous. However against that backdrop note that the first three trading days of July are traditionally three of the strongest ones of

At the close: S&P 500 reverses lower after touching a fresh record high Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Benign PCE report collides with tumultuous politics

US May core PCE +0.1% vs 0.1% expectedUMich June final consumer sentiment 68.2 vs 65.6 prelimCanada April GDP M/M 0.3% vs. 0.3% expectedJoe Biden says he isn’t going anywhereDallas Fed May PCE price index +1.4% m/m annualized vs +2.7% priorFed’s Daly: The PCE data is ‘good news’ but the Fed is not done yetFed’s Bowman:

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Benign PCE report collides with tumultuous politics Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Currencies lightly changed awaiting US PCE

Headlines: Major currencies move back to little changed on the dayJapan chief Cabinet secretary says closely watching FX movesLatest poll sees Le Pen’s faction winning 37% of votes in first round of French electionWhat are the main events for today?ECB’s Villeroy: Disinflation process is on trackFed’s Barkin: Policy tightening will eventually slow the economy furtherFed’s

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Currencies lightly changed awaiting US PCE Read More »

US preparing to evacuate Americans from Lebanon as tensions remains high

According to NBS the US is preparing to evacuate Americans from Lebanon should the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel intensify. The increased military activity and the rhetoric suggest a risk of escalation, potentially opening up another front. The Pentagon is repositioning U.S. military assets closer to Israel and Lebanon.USS Wasp and Marines from the 24th

US preparing to evacuate Americans from Lebanon as tensions remains high Read More »

Fed’s Daly: The PCE data is ‘good news’ but the Fed is not done yet

It’s taking longer for policy to work, but it’s workingI’m looking at scenarios, we will react. It’s too early to tell what we will doInflation data shows it’s cooling, policy is working as expectedAnticipate generative AI will boost productivity, but it’s too early to speculate on”I think we’ll continue to see inflation printing above 2%,

Fed’s Daly: The PCE data is ‘good news’ but the Fed is not done yet Read More »

Dallas Fed May PCE price index +1.4% m/m annualized vs +2.7% prior

The Dallas and Cleveland PCE remix data illustrates why Fed officials and markets are feeling better about the pricing picture. One month annualized trimmed mean 1.4% vs 2.7% prior (lowest this year)Six month annualized 3.0% vs 3.1% prior12-month 2.8% vs 2.9% prior Digging through the numbers, some drivers of inflation: Prescription drugsTobaccoSpectator sportsHospitalsUsed trucks Some

Dallas Fed May PCE price index +1.4% m/m annualized vs +2.7% prior Read More »

Japan MoF replaces currency diplomat Kanda with Atsushi Mimura

Japan’s Ministry of Finance appoints Atsushi Mimura as top currency diplomat, replacing Masato Kanda – Nikkei.Japan’s Ministry of Finance appoints Hirotsugu Shinkawa as Vice-Minister of Finance, replacing Eiji Chatani – Nikkei. The USDJPY saw some marginal downside after the news. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan MoF replaces currency diplomat Kanda with Atsushi Mimura Read More »

Fed’s Bowman: We have strong employment but haven’t quite reached our inflation goal

Bowman is a hawk so ‘haven’t quite’ isn’t a exactly banging the table for more hikes. We will continue to work toward Fed’s inflation goal ‘on our pace’There doesn’t seem to be a lot of appetite for a central bank digital currency in Congress This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Bowman: We have strong employment but haven’t quite reached our inflation goal Read More »

ECB’s Villeroy: Disinflation process is on track

We are gaining more confidence in the forecastAnd there is more scope to disregard the smaller bumps in the disinflation processBeing “data-driven” currently does not mean being “flash-driven”Data is inherently noisy and there is a risk of overreacting to volatile newsShould refrain from changing 2% inflation target He’s taking heart in the better headline reading

ECB’s Villeroy: Disinflation process is on track Read More »

All set for the US inflation report… and the other PCE

Happy Friday, unless you’re a Democratic Presidential candidate and the knives are coming from all directions. It will be interesting to see where this is going because the status quo doesn’t look tenable. The market is going to have to deal with that but here’s a spoiler: Politics (and especially the President) is the most-overrated

All set for the US inflation report… and the other PCE Read More »

EBC Financial Group Wins “Most Trusted FX Broker” and “Best CFD Broker” Awards

EBC Financial Group (EBC) is proud to announce that it has been honoured with two prestigious awards at the World Finance Awards 2024: Most Trusted FX Broker and Best CFD Broker. These accolades reflect EBC’s unwavering commitment to transparency, regulatory compliance, and exceptional customer service. This double recognition highlights global investors’ trust in EBC’s top-tier

EBC Financial Group Wins “Most Trusted FX Broker” and “Best CFD Broker” Awards Read More »

There are all kinds of political rumors on Biden but it will be an interesting weekend

The US political landscape could look far different when markets re-open on Monday. There are all kinds of rumors and reporting after Biden’s disastrous debate performance. The main ones indicate that Biden and his team plan to continue but I don’t really see those as insightful — people always want to continue. The question is

There are all kinds of political rumors on Biden but it will be an interesting weekend Read More »

Stock market today: Positive momentum in Healthcare, Tech sees a mixed bag

Overview of Today’s Market Dynamics The US stock market displayed varied performances across different sectors, with notable gains in healthcare driven by UnitedHealth (UNH) and a mixed sentiment in the technology sector. Here is a deep dive into the sectors, highlighting significant movers and the overall market sentiments that could help shape your investment decisions.

Stock market today: Positive momentum in Healthcare, Tech sees a mixed bag Read More »

Japan’s Suzuki says rapid FX moves are undesirable

I’m not sure how many times we’ve heard these comments before, but here we go: Japan FinMin Suzuki: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Rapid FX moves undesirable.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Deeply concerned about excessive, one-sided moves on forex.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Closely watching

Japan’s Suzuki says rapid FX moves are undesirable Read More »

If Trump wins here are seven concrete trade ideas from Jim Cramer

The odds of a Trump Presidency skyrocketed yesterday after a poor performance in the debate from Joe Biden. CNBC’s Jim Cramer showed up with the right attitude today, looking for concrete winners and losers if Trump takes power in November, particularly if there is a Republican sweep of the House and Senate. Cramer said he

If Trump wins here are seven concrete trade ideas from Jim Cramer Read More »

Macron’s camp trails far behind in the latest French poll

The latest IFOP polling data: Far right 36.5%Left popular front 29.0%Macron’s centrist camp 20.5% The poll sees Le Pen’s National Rally getting 225-265 seats with the left wing getting 170-200 and Macron’s camp getting 70-100 seats. It takes 289 seats to get a majority so the politics — assuming these ranges are right — the

Macron’s camp trails far behind in the latest French poll Read More »

Fed’s Barkin: I don’t think forward guidance is particularly helpful right now

Real time consumer demand indicators still seem solid, not frothyI’m still hearing good solid demand growth in conversations with contactsCompanies have cut back on their hiring but they have also cut back on firing On the headline remark, he’s responding to the outlook for rate cuts. Once again, it just reaffirms that they’re not looking

Fed’s Barkin: I don’t think forward guidance is particularly helpful right now Read More »

European equity close: French stocks slump ahead of Sunday’s vote

The euro isn’t concerned today about the French election but equities are. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX +0.1%UK FTSE 100 flatFrench CAC -0.8%Italy MIB -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.2% French stocks tried to rebound last week but it all evaporated late this week and we’re trading at the lowest since January. This article was written by

European equity close: French stocks slump ahead of Sunday’s vote Read More »

USDJPY Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upside

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Yesterday, we also got the US Jobless Claims figures where the data showed that the labour market continues to rebalance via less job

USDJPY Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upside Read More »

Fed’s Barkin: Policy tightening will eventually slow the economy further

There are still lags to policy transmission that are playing outOpen to the idea that rate hikes are not constraining the economy as much as the Fed thinksThat is given the ‘remarkable’ strength in the economy that they are seeingServices, shelter price-setters still have room to push prices higherWill proceed ‘deliberately’ on policy He definitely

Fed’s Barkin: Policy tightening will eventually slow the economy further Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1268 (vs. estimate at 7.2727)

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1268 (vs. estimate at 7.2727) Read More »

BDSwiss Collects Two Prestigious Awards at UF AWARDS Global 2024

BDSwiss continues to take 2024 by storm, with the brokerage once again standing out from the competition thanks to another successful performance, this time at UF AWARDS Global 2024. The company picked up two prestigious trophies, receiving the “Best Research and Education Provider – Global” and “Best Trade Execution – Global” awards in a glittering

BDSwiss Collects Two Prestigious Awards at UF AWARDS Global 2024 Read More »

Canada April GDP M/M 0.3% vs. 0.3% expected

April GDP 0.3% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.0% prior.May Advance GDP 0.1% vs. 0.3% prior.Services producing industries +0.3%.Goods producing industries +0.3%.15 of 20 sectors increasing in the month. Wholesale trade, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and manufacturing were the largest contributors to growth in April after recording declines in the previous month. Following

Canada April GDP M/M 0.3% vs. 0.3% expected Read More »

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The bearish momentum seems to be fading

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Yesterday, we also got the US Jobless Claims figures where the data showed that the labour market continues to rebalance via less job

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The bearish momentum seems to be fading Read More »

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 28 Jun: Presidential debate was a nothing burger

It was a relatively quiet Asia-Pac session for markets. The presidential debate saw mostly muted market reactions as we didn’t really learn much from it. The USD saw some initial upside at the start of the debate, but some of the move moderated as the debate drew to a close. Equity markets are well supported

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 28 Jun: Presidential debate was a nothing burger Read More »

Latest poll sees Le Pen’s faction winning 37% of votes in first round of French election

Compared to the last publication of the poll, National Rally is now seen winning as much as 37% of the popular vote. That is up 2% from previously. Meanwhile, Macron’s Together ensemble is seen garnering just 20% of the vote – down 2% from previously. As an aside, just be wary that this does not

Latest poll sees Le Pen’s faction winning 37% of votes in first round of French election Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar slips on data but later rebounds

US May durable goods orders +0.1% vs -0.1% expectedUS Q1 final GDP +1.4% vs +1.3% expectedUS initial jobless claims 233K vs. 236K expectedUS May goods trade balance (advance) -100.62B vs. -97.95B priorUS May wholesale inventories +0.6% vs +0.1% priorUS sells 7-year notes at 4.276% vs 4.279% WIFed’s Bostic: Sees a cut this year and 4

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar slips on data but later rebounds Read More »

Grab your popcorn for the upcoming presidential debate

Hope you have your popcorn ready for the upcoming presidential debate between Biden and Trump (due at 9PM NY time). Bloomberg was out with some helpful thoughts on what type of topics could be important for markets: Topics like taxes, tariffs, electric cars, semiconductors, and cryptocurrencies could be focal points in the debate.Stocks with high

Grab your popcorn for the upcoming presidential debate Read More »

Fed’s Bowman: We’re not at a point yet to consider a rate cut

If inflation moves towards 2%, eventually a rate cut is on the tableMonetary policy is currently restrictiveInflation should ease with current policy settingUpside risks to inflation persistEconomy strong but activity has moderatedStill willing to raise rates again if inflation doesn’t rise Bowman is a hawk so her comments aren’t a surprise. This article was written

Fed’s Bowman: We’re not at a point yet to consider a rate cut Read More »

Tech sector shines amidst today’s mixed market conditions

Overview of Today’s US Stock Market Today’s stock market presented a mixed picture highlighted by strong performances in technology and communication services, contrasted with difficulties in the semiconductor and financial sectors. The market’s divergent path showcases the unfolding dynamics in investor sentiments and their strategic impact on portfolio management. 📈 Technology & Communication: A Beacon

Tech sector shines amidst today’s mixed market conditions Read More »

BofA: Excess JPY supply this summer to drive USD/JPY toward 163

Bank of America anticipates that an imbalance in the demand and supply of the Japanese yen (JPY) this summer will contribute to USD/JPY reaching 163 by September 2024. Various factors, including increased investments in foreign equities, trade balance struggles, and political risks, are expected to exert downward pressure on the yen. Key Points: Imbalance in

BofA: Excess JPY supply this summer to drive USD/JPY toward 163 Read More »

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary says won’t comment on FX levels

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Won’t comment on forex levels, potential FX intervention.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Will take appropriate steps on excessive FX moves.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Rapid FX moves undesirable. This article was written by Arno V Venter

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary says won’t comment on FX levels Read More »

RBA’s Hauser: It would be a bad mistake to set policy on the basis of one number

We don’t do that (setting policy based on one data point)Inflation has picked up a little bitBut it could just be that monetary policy is taking longer to feed through to the services sectorThe right policy response to that, clearly, would be to hold your nerveWe’re coming down in a slightly bumpy way, but we

RBA’s Hauser: It would be a bad mistake to set policy on the basis of one number Read More »

Crédit Agricole on what a labour victory means for Sterling

The GBP has been trading at a ‘political premium’ ahead of the elections due to expectations of political stability.Polls indicate a decisive win for Labour, which is expected to form a majority government. This is seen as a positive development for political stability. FX investors hope that political stability, coupled with growing real incomes and

Crédit Agricole on what a labour victory means for Sterling Read More »

BOJ’s Uchida says closely monitoring yen movement in conducting monetary policy

Weaker yen is an upward factor for pricesClosely monitoring that in conducting monetary policy The remarks are cited by a Japanese Cabinet office official, so it isn’t exactly the usual jawboning. But still, worth noting. USD/JPY continues to sit around 160.30-50 levels on the day, currently around 160.45. This article was written by Justin Low

BOJ’s Uchida says closely monitoring yen movement in conducting monetary policy Read More »

US Q1 final GDP +1.4% vs +1.3% expected

Second reading was +1.3%Final Q4 reading was +3.2% annualizedQ3 was +5.2% annualized Details: Consumer spending +1.5% vs +2.0% second reading GDP final sales +1.8% vs +1.7% second readingGDP deflator +3.1% vs +3.1% second readingCore PCE +3.7% vs +3.6% second reading Corporate profits -2.7% vs -1.7% in second readingPCE services inflation excluding energy and housing +5.1%

US Q1 final GDP +1.4% vs +1.3% expected Read More »

US pharmacy giant offers up a big warning on the US consumer

The second-largest US pharmacy chain doesn’t like what it’s seeing from the US consumer. The company lowered its guidance in what it said was “reflecting challenging pharmacy industry trends and a worse-than-expected US consumer environment.” Oftentimes, companies blame macro for poor execution but at other times they can offer an early sign of trouble. We

US pharmacy giant offers up a big warning on the US consumer Read More »

BOJ reportedly conducting survey of bond market players over its tapering plans

The report notes that the survey is expected to be used as a basis for discussions when the BOJ is to meet with bond market participants on 9-10 July. The sources add that the survey is asking market players about their expectations on the range and pace of the tapering process. As they look to

BOJ reportedly conducting survey of bond market players over its tapering plans Read More »

Eurozone June final consumer confidence -14.0 vs -14.0 prelim

Economic confidence 95.9 vs 96.2 expectedPrior 96.0Industrial confidence -10.1 vs -9.6 expectedPrior -9.9Services confidence 6.5 vs 6.4 expectedPrior 6.5 Euro area economic sentiment eased a touch in June, with manufacturing confidence being the slight drag. Adding to that, consumer inflation expectations did nudge up a little to 13.1 – up from 12.5 previously. It points

Eurozone June final consumer confidence -14.0 vs -14.0 prelim Read More »

USDCAD Technical Analysis – The bounce from the key support extends higher

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the

USDCAD Technical Analysis – The bounce from the key support extends higher Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY tentative above 160 mark

Headlines: BOJ’s Uchida says closely monitoring yen movement in conducting monetary policyBOJ reportedly conducting survey of bond market players over its tapering plansECB’s Kažimír: I think we can expect one more rate cut this yearBOE says that UK households, businesses are coping with higher ratesRBA’s Hauser: It would be a bad mistake to set policy

ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY tentative above 160 mark Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: USD/JPY breaks 160.00 and keeps on rising

Japan’s top currency diplomat: Seriously concerned about recent rapid yen weakeningUS May new home sales 0.619m vs 0.640m expectedECB’s Lane: If baseline holds, there will be more cutsPierre Andurand ditches oil in favor of copper and cocoaUS 5-year notes sell at 4.331% vs 4.335% WIThe latest poll puts Le Pen at 36%EIA US weekly crude

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: USD/JPY breaks 160.00 and keeps on rising Read More »

BOE says that UK households, businesses are coping with higher rates

Counter-cyclical buffer maintained at 2%Risk management in private equity sector needs improving to reduce vulnerabilitiesGlobal financial risk environment “broadly unchanged” from Q1Adjustment to higher interest rates is still not completeMarket prices are still vulnerable to a sharp correctionMany UK households are under pressure from higher living costs, ratesUK businesses “broadly resilient” to current economic outlookFull

BOE says that UK households, businesses are coping with higher rates Read More »

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The price is bouncing on a key support level

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The price is bouncing on a key support level Read More »

EURUSD Technical Analysis – Messy price action amid quarter-end flows

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the

EURUSD Technical Analysis – Messy price action amid quarter-end flows Read More »

Commodities had a mixed day overall with platinum soaring while natgas wet the bed

A mixed result for commodities with platinum up over 3% while natgas down more than 4%. Compared to the strength in the USD the results shows a lot more noise than signal. It’s always tricky to pin down reasons for moves when we have quarter-end flows to deal with so just keep that in mind

Commodities had a mixed day overall with platinum soaring while natgas wet the bed Read More »

Goldman likes med-term USD upside ahead of the US election

Upcoming debate could put some short-term focus on upcoming US electionsLikes med-term USD upside exposureUSD upside exposure has added benefit of hedging against non-US political risks (France)Thinks the most negative scenario for both the USD and the S&P500 is a democrat sweep, while the most positive scenario for both is a republican sweep Below is

Goldman likes med-term USD upside ahead of the US election Read More »

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 27 Jun – Intervention risks brewing

It’s been a very quiet session on the Asia-Pac side with very little notable news releases or fundamental news. The biggest focus for markets have been the continued weakness in the JPY which saw the USDJPY trade very close to the 161 level, but has since backed off the highs. Looking at the price action

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 27 Jun – Intervention risks brewing Read More »

Scotia thinks the June BoC cut was a policy mistake

The BoC’s preferred core inflation gauges, such as trimmed mean and weighted median CPI, surged in May, indicating a reacceleration of underlying inflationary pressures.Core services inflation, including shelter costs, remains very high. Shelter inflation is broadening, with rents continuing to soar and other drivers of shelter costs entering a new phase.Categories that previously contributed to

Scotia thinks the June BoC cut was a policy mistake Read More »

Consumer discretionary and comms on sectors in the green today

Looking across US equity sectors we only had two sectors in the green, that being Consumer Discretionary (+1.45%) and Communication Services (+0.01%) which was basically flat. The rest of the sectors were pressured with energy (-0.98%) and financials (-0.63%) taking the biggest punch. Worth noting that despite the shaky price action the YTD performance is

Consumer discretionary and comms on sectors in the green today Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1270 (vs. estimate at 7.2765)

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1270 (vs. estimate at 7.2765) Read More »

Japan’s Suzuki saying watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency

Japan FinMin Suzuki: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan FinMin Suzuki: FX stability is desirable.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Watching FX moves with high sense of urgency.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Deeply concerned about FX impact on economy.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Will take necessary actions on FX This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Suzuki saying watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency Read More »

Credit Agricole: EUR oversold and CHF overbought according to positioning model

Credit Agricole’s latest G10 FX PIX 2.0 model indicates significant shifts in currency positioning. The EUR is now deemed oversold, while the CHF has turned overbought. These findings are based on recent IMM flow data and overall market sentiment. Key Points: G10 FX PIX 2.0 Model Insights: The model shows GBP, CHF, and NZD as

Credit Agricole: EUR oversold and CHF overbought according to positioning model Read More »

Fed stress tests says banks reported higher losses than in 2023 tests

Fed: Banks reported higher losses than in 2023 stress test as bank balance sheets are riskier and expenses are higher.US Federal Reserve stress test shows large US banks are well positioned to weather severe recession and stay above minimum capital requirements.Fed: Thirty-one large US banks reported nearly $685 billion in losses under 2024 Fed stress

Fed stress tests says banks reported higher losses than in 2023 tests Read More »

Amazon shares rise to record high, crossing $2 trillion valuation

Shares of Amazon are catching a bid today, rising 3.1% to an all time high. The climb above $192 along with 10.406 billion shares outstanding puts the company above a $2 trillion market cap for the first time. That’s against earnings guidance of $10-14 billion in the current quarter and consensus earnings of $5.74 next

Amazon shares rise to record high, crossing $2 trillion valuation Read More »

MUFG: Australian inflation data raises prospect of RBA rate hike

MUFG anticipates that the latest inflation data from Australia could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider another rate hike at its upcoming meeting on August 6th. The surprising uptick in inflation, coupled with fiscal stimulus measures and the RBA’s current policy bias, strengthens the case for maintaining a hawkish stance. Key Points: Inflation

MUFG: Australian inflation data raises prospect of RBA rate hike Read More »

Martin Schlegel named new chairman of the Swiss National Bank

Martin Schlegel was widely tapped for the job once Thomas Jordan announced his retirement. Antoine Martin is set to become the new vice-chairman while Petra Tschdin was appointed to the three-member governing board of the SNB. All appointments are effective Oct 1. Update: He’s out with some comments. Great honor to be named next ChairmanStresses

Martin Schlegel named new chairman of the Swiss National Bank Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1248 (vs. estimate at 7.2698)

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1248 (vs. estimate at 7.2698) Read More »

Trademax Australia Limited Announces Revocation of Interim Stop Orders

Trademax Australia Limited, operating under the TMGM brand, a leading provider of contracts for difference (CFDs) and margin forex trading services, announces that the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has revoked the interim stop orders previously issued in relation to TMGM’s contracts for difference. On June 13, 2024, ASIC issued interim stop orders prohibiting

Trademax Australia Limited Announces Revocation of Interim Stop Orders Read More »

ABN AMRO sees first Fed rate cut by September

ABN AMRO with some thoughts on the Fed: Expected to cut rates starting in September 2024Recent macro data indicate a cooling economy, with lower consumption as excess savings are depleted.But believes household balance sheets and accommodative financial conditions are expected to provide a floor for economic activity, preventing a deeper recession.Reasons for expecting cuts in

ABN AMRO sees first Fed rate cut by September Read More »

Resilient tech: Apple shines amid mixed market signals

Overview of Today’s Stock Market Today’s stock market presents a complex tapestry of gains and losses across various sectors, compelling investors to take a nuanced view of the market dynamics. From the heatmap, the technology sector shows a resilient performance, particularly highlighted by Apple Inc.’s rise. In contrast, companies in the consumer cyclical and communication

Resilient tech: Apple shines amid mixed market signals Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY trades up to highest since 1990

Headlines: USD/JPY slowly testing the waters above the 160.00 markUSDJPY Technical Analysis – The market is testing the intervention level againIs a rate hike back on the menu for the RBA?Equities see early gains fade as the push and pull continuesECB’s Panetta says should avoid even “casual forward guidance” on timing of rate movesECB’s Rehn:

ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY trades up to highest since 1990 Read More »

Japan’s top currency diplomat: Seriously concerned about recent rapid yen weakening

Comments from Masato Kanda: Closely monitoring market’s movement with high vigilanceAlways prepared to respondDon’t have specific levels in mindBelieve that majority view yen weakness as speculativeRecent yen moves are rapidIt is certain that current moves are one-sided USD/JPY quickly lower on this, though the comment about specific levels sounds to me like a hint that

Japan’s top currency diplomat: Seriously concerned about recent rapid yen weakening Read More »

EIA US weekly crude oil inventories +3591K vs -2850K expected

Prior was -2547KGasoline stocks +2654K vs -1024K expectedRefinery utilization -1.3% vs +0.1% expectedDistillates -377K vs -1050K expectedProduction unchanged at 13.2 mbpd These numbers are bearish. API inventory numbers from late yesterday: Crude +914KGasoline +3843KDistillates -1178K This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

EIA US weekly crude oil inventories +3591K vs -2850K expected Read More »

RBA’s Kent says recent data reinforce need to be vigilant to upside inflation risks

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Gov Kent: Range of measures shows monetary policy is restrictive.RBA’s Kent: Policy contributing to slower growth of demand, lower inflation.RBA’s Kent: Recent data reinforced need to be vigilant to upside inflation risks.RBA’s Kent: Hence, not ruling anything in or out for interest rates.RBA’s Kent: Cash rate is above our range

RBA’s Kent says recent data reinforce need to be vigilant to upside inflation risks Read More »

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 21 June +0.8% vs +0.9% prior

Prior +0.9%Market index 212.0 vs 210.4 priorPurchase index 147.8 v 146.0 priorRefinance index 552.4 vs 552.7 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.93% vs 6.94% prior Mortgage applications were a touch higher in the past week, with a rise in purchase activity helping to offset a marginal decline in refinancing activity. Overall, housing activity remains rather tepid at

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 21 June +0.8% vs +0.9% prior Read More »

Shares of Fedex jump as 2025 guidance lowers capex, highlights cost savings

There are two ways for a company to improve profitability — raise prices and lower costs. Those both boost stock prices but have very different macro implications. Shares of FedEx are up 8.7% in after-market trading following earnings. The jump would get shares back close to the April highs. Highlights: Sees 2025 capex of $5.2B

Shares of Fedex jump as 2025 guidance lowers capex, highlights cost savings Read More »

Germany July GfK consumer sentiment -21.8 vs -18.9 expected

Prior -20.9; revised to -21.0 German consumer sentiment dips in July, ending a streak of four consecutive rises. GfK notes that “the interruption of the recent upward trend shows that the road out of the sluggish consumption will be difficult and there can always be setbacks”. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Germany July GfK consumer sentiment -21.8 vs -18.9 expected Read More »

USDCAD Technical Analysis – The hot Canadian CPI trims rate cuts bets

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report yesterday. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it also supports the risk sentiment

USDCAD Technical Analysis – The hot Canadian CPI trims rate cuts bets Read More »

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 26 Jun: AUD jumps after hot CPI data

FX: The star performer in the session has been the AUD. The currency saw a jolt higher following hotter-than-expected CPI data with the weighted CPI YY measure printing at 4.0% (highest since Nov 2023) and the CPI YY measure coming in at 4.1%. Market probability for an RBA rate hike has increased as a result

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 26 Jun: AUD jumps after hot CPI data Read More »

BNP Paribas on what’s priced into FX markets with upcoming French elections

Indicators suggest valuations and positioning are not at stretched levels.EURUSD valuations are far from having overshot in the move lower.Reinforces conviction for appealing risk-reward to hold short EUR exposure.Elections compound the scope for downside.Positions not near extreme levels, indicating scope for further shorts to be added ahead of the event.Recommends EURJPY shorts Looking at EURUSD

BNP Paribas on what’s priced into FX markets with upcoming French elections Read More »

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Another hot Australian CPI raises hike bets

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report yesterday. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it also supports the risk sentiment

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Another hot Australian CPI raises hike bets Read More »

Copper Technical Analysis

Fundamental Overview Copper remains under pressure, albeit the bearish momentum appears to be slowing. Last week, the FT reported that stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses hit their highest level since 2020 amid weak demand due to China’s real estate sector downturn. Given the high prices reached in the previous month, manufacturers refrained from buying since they

Copper Technical Analysis Read More »

ECB’s Panetta says should avoid even “casual forward guidance” on timing of rate moves

ECB could gradually reduce interest rates if outlook holdsCurrent macroeconomic picture is consistent with normalisation of monetary stanceWe have reasons to believe that sticky services inflation is not abnormal in any way Expanding on the headline remark, Panetta also advised his colleagues to stay the course as deviating from that would mean veering away from

ECB’s Panetta says should avoid even “casual forward guidance” on timing of rate moves Read More »

Switzerland June UBS investor sentiment 17.5 vs 18.2 prior

Prior 18.2 UBS notes that: “Ahead of elections in France and the US, domestic politics in those countries is the biggest concern. In Switzerland, economic growth is the primary concern. Survey participants expect the Swiss franc to appreciate further against the euro and US dollar.” This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Switzerland June UBS investor sentiment 17.5 vs 18.2 prior Read More »

USDJPY Technical Analysis – The market is testing the intervention level again

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report yesterday. Such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year and supports the risk sentiment amid a

USDJPY Technical Analysis – The market is testing the intervention level again Read More »

Credit Agricole: Hawkish RBA hold reinforces long AUD/USD and AUD/NZD

Credit Agricole discusses the impact of the RBA’s hawkish hold, arguing it strengthens the case for being long on AUD/USD and AUD/NZD. This decision has reduced speculation about rate cuts and even led to some pricing in potential rate hikes. Meanwhile, NZ’s Chief Economist sounded less hawkish, supporting the long AUD/NZD trade. Key Points: RBA’s

Credit Agricole: Hawkish RBA hold reinforces long AUD/USD and AUD/NZD Read More »

USDCNY keeps grinding towards previous intervention levels around 7.37

The USDCNY is approaching the previous max pain level around 7.37 where the PBoC intervened in 2023 so worth keeping that level marked up. The PBoC continuously adjusted the mid-point weaker in recent sessions with yesterday seeing the weakest setting since Nov 2023. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

USDCNY keeps grinding towards previous intervention levels around 7.37 Read More »

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hints that he’s not going anywhere

I wrote earlier that the knives were likely to come out for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after he lost a by-election in a Liberal stronghold. However it sounds like he will have to be dragged out kicking and screaming, or via an election that’s not due until October 20, 2025. He released a statement

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hints that he’s not going anywhere Read More »

Commodities didn’t have a great day with silver and natgas both down over 2%

Commodities are mostly in the red across the board as we get closer to the Asia-Pac session. The easy blame for this today was the stronger dollar, but to be fair the commodity/USD inverse correlation has been hit and miss over the last few months with a few occasions showing a positive correlation. We also

Commodities didn’t have a great day with silver and natgas both down over 2% Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Canadian inflation re-heats

Canada May CPI 2.9% versus 2.6% expectedUS June consumer confidence 100.4 vs 100.0 expectedRichmond Fed June manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expectedFed’s Cook: Current policy is well positioned, attentive to inflation expectationsShares of Fedex jump as 2025 guidance lowers capex, highlights cost savingsShares of Nvidia surge nearly 7% to lead tech reboundUS sells 2-year Treasury

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Canadian inflation re-heats Read More »

Here are the bull and bear cases for stocks from JPMorgan

The Nasdaq struggled yesterday but bounced back today in a rebound from three days of selling. What next? The JPM desk offered up this. The bull case: Economic data inflects higherPositive July seasonals;Earnings deliver on expectationsBond yields peakPositioning tailwinds The bear case: Macro sentiment deterioratesTactical pullback arrivesWeaker guidanceAI theme abandonmentExogenous shocks h/t @MrMBrown This article

Here are the bull and bear cases for stocks from JPMorgan Read More »

Japan finance minister says will closely monitor currency movements

The two sides are putting out a joint statement, remarking that: Japan, South Korea share serious concerns on respective currency depreciationWill continue to take appropriate steps to respond to declining value of currency Suzuki then adds that it would be “desirable for FX to move stably, reflecting fundamentals”. All in all, nothing that we haven’t

Japan finance minister says will closely monitor currency movements Read More »

Market vibrance amid volatility: Insights from today’s stock heatmap

Introduction to Today’s Market Dynamics Today’s trading session exhibits a colorful mosaic of gains and losses across various sectors, revealing subtle yet significant market movements. A deep dive into today’s stock market heatmap provides us with a clearer picture of which sectors are thriving and which are just surviving. 🌐 Technology Sector In the technology

Market vibrance amid volatility: Insights from today’s stock heatmap Read More »

Forex Expo Dubai Set to Be World’s Largest Online Trading Event with Over 15,000 Attendees

Forex Expo Dubai is gearing up to host over 15,000 attendees from more than 50+ countries, solidifying its position as the largest event of its kind this year. Scheduled to take place once again in Dubai on 7th-8th October, this underscores Dubai’s enduring role as a global hub driving growth and innovation in the fintech

Forex Expo Dubai Set to Be World’s Largest Online Trading Event with Over 15,000 Attendees Read More »

Fed’s Cook: Current policy is well positioned, attentive to inflation expectations

At some point it will be appropriate to cutTiming of policy adjustments wil ldepend on data and outlookRise in inflation expectations would imply keeping policy restrictive for longerInflation has slowed, labor market tightness has easedExpect disinflation trend to continueExpect 12 month inflation moving sideways for the rest of the year, slowing more sharply next yearExpect

Fed’s Cook: Current policy is well positioned, attentive to inflation expectations Read More »

Fed’s Daly: Must be thoughtful about not loosening too early or holding too long

They’re going to hold too long. It was written in stone they would hold too long after they blew it on inflation. Initial claims still coming in lowWe see cautious optimism in the business communityAt this point, the risks to inflation and employment are in better balanceFrom contacts, concerns now are the ones we had

Fed’s Daly: Must be thoughtful about not loosening too early or holding too long Read More »

USDCAD Technical Analysis – A look at the chart ahead of the Canadian CPI

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be generally positive for risk sentiment going forward.

USDCAD Technical Analysis – A look at the chart ahead of the Canadian CPI Read More »

US May national activity index +0.18 vs. -0.23 prior

National Activity Index 0.18 vs. -0.23 prior (revised to -0.26). This is very volatile data and not a market moving release. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.18 in May from

US May national activity index +0.18 vs. -0.23 prior Read More »

Gold Technical Analysis – The strong US PMIs weighed on the market

Fundamental Overview Gold got hit hard last Friday by the strong US PMIs as real yields rose following the data release. The report though showed that inflationary pressures continue to abate and that’s also the reason why the market’s expectation for interest rates remained unchanged. The overreaction from the US PMIs is getting slowly erased

Gold Technical Analysis – The strong US PMIs weighed on the market Read More »

FP Markets Adds Two More Industry Benchmark Awards to Its Collection

Extending its winning streak, global multi-asset Forex and CFD broker, FP Markets, was crowned ‘Most Transparent Broker’ and also took home ‘Best Trading Conditions’ for the second year in a row at the highly anticipated Global Ultimate Fintech (UF) Awards 2024. Following last year’s ‘Most Trusted Broker’ acknowledgement and the ‘Best Trade Execution’ award received

FP Markets Adds Two More Industry Benchmark Awards to Its Collection Read More »

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Waiting for a breakout

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be generally positive for risk sentiment going forward.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Waiting for a breakout Read More »

Richmond Fed June manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expected

Manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expected and 0 prior.Services index -11 vs. 3 prior.Manufacturing shipments index -9 vs. 13 prior. Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from 0 in May to −10 in June. Of its

Richmond Fed June manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expected Read More »

US June consumer confidence 100.4 vs 100.0 expected

Prior was 102.0 (revised to 101.3)Expectations 73.0 vs 74.9 priorPresent situation 141.5 vs 140.8 prior14.1% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14.3%.12 month inflation expectations 5.3% vs 5.4% prior “Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in

US June consumer confidence 100.4 vs 100.0 expected Read More »

July Bank of Canada rate cut odds fall after hot inflation report. What’s next for CAD

The Bank of Canada’s job just got a little tougher. Yesterday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem spoke about wages and productivity. He dismissed stickier wage data: “Depending on the measure you look at, wage growth peaked at between 4½% and 6%. This was roughly twice the pre-pandemic average of 2% to 3%. With inflation

July Bank of Canada rate cut odds fall after hot inflation report. What’s next for CAD Read More »

Eyes on Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau today after a devestating election loss in Toronto

Today is likely the beginning of the end of Justin Trudeau’s hold on Canadian federal politics. Polls have been bad for the Prime Minister for many months but they’ve deteriorated further lately and yesterday he suffered a crushing defeat. A special election was held in his Liberal Party’s stronghold yesterday after the retirement of a

Eyes on Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau today after a devestating election loss in Toronto Read More »

Forexlive European FX news wrap 25 June – A mostly uneventful session

Fed’s Bowman: not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut ratesMajor currencies not showing much appetite on the dayFrance on the verge of a political standstill?Japan finance minister says will closely monitor currency movementsEuropean equities on the backfoot again after the gains yesterdaySpain Q1 final GDP +0.8% vs +0.7% q/q prelimWhat are

Forexlive European FX news wrap 25 June – A mostly uneventful session Read More »

A Top-down View: Discussing Infinox’s Journey with Jay Mawji, CEO

INFINOX has become a major player in the Forex and CFD trading industry, earning respect and recognition for its unwavering commitment to traders. As one of the online trading industry pioneers, INFINOX started with a clear mission: to support and empower traders in every possible way. This dedication is seen in every aspect of their

A Top-down View: Discussing Infinox’s Journey with Jay Mawji, CEO Read More »

Fed’s Bowman: not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates

Not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates.Should data show inflation moving sustainably to 2%, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower policy rate.Baseline outlook continues to be inflation will return to 2% with policy rate held steady for some time.Willing to raise the target rate at a future meeting

Fed’s Bowman: not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates Read More »

Fed’s Daly: Bumpiness of inflation data so far this year has not inspired confidence

Recent inflation readings more encouraging but hard to now if on track to price stabilityWe have made a lot of progress on inflation, still work to doNearer to a point where benign outcome on labor market could be less likelyMust fully restore price stability without a painful disruption to the labor marketIf inflation falls more

Fed’s Daly: Bumpiness of inflation data so far this year has not inspired confidence Read More »

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 25 Jun – Equity futures attempts marginal bounce

Following yesterday’s move lower, US equity futures have attempted to put in a marginal bounce of their lows from yesterday. Traders will have to wait for the US cash open with eyes on Nvidia to see whether that will be sustained. Forex has traded fairly mixed today with the JPY leading while the USD the

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 25 Jun – Equity futures attempts marginal bounce Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Nvidia and bitcoin cracked lower

BOC’s Macklem: Increasingly we look to be on our way to hitting inflation targetBOC’s Macklem Q&A: You can see some weakening of the labor force under the hoodFed’s Daly: Bumpiness of inflation data so far this year has not inspired confidenceFed’s Daly: Must be thoughtful about not loosening too early or holding too longMacron’s poll

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Nvidia and bitcoin cracked lower Read More »

China Premier Li says confident and capable to achieve growth target of around 5%

China Premier Li: We are confident and capable to achieve the full year growth target of around 5%.China Premier Li: Electric vehicles, lithium batteries produced by Chinese companies have not only met domestic demand but enriched global supply.China Premier Li: We should build a more fair non-discriminatory business environment for tech innovation.China Premier Li: We

China Premier Li says confident and capable to achieve growth target of around 5% Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1225 (vs. estimate at 7.2587)

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1225 (vs. estimate at 7.2587) Read More »

Goldman expects USD upside under a Republican victory

Heading into the Trump/Biden debate this week, Goldman was out with a useful note on their expectations for a Republican victory. USD: Upside bias under a Republican victory Tariff Policies: Trump has proposed several potential tariff policies, including a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China. These tariffs are

Goldman expects USD upside under a Republican victory Read More »

BOC’s Macklem Q&A: You can see some weakening of the labor force under the hood

We’ve seen inflationary pressures ease and we think they will continue to easeWe need to have conversations on improving our productivityWe’ve had exceptionally-strong supply shocksWe have too many small differences between provinces creating barriersThe economy has been changing rapidlyMy intention today was to highlight the things we’re looking at in the labor marketWe are looking

BOC’s Macklem Q&A: You can see some weakening of the labor force under the hood Read More »

Japan chief cabinet sec doesn’t comment on FX levels

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Excessive FX volatility undesirable.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Closely watching FX moves, will respond appropriately to excessive volatility. This article was written by Arno V Venter at

Japan chief cabinet sec doesn’t comment on FX levels Read More »

Dallas Fed June manufacturing index -15.1 vs -19.4 prior

Prior was -19.4 Details: General business activity -15.1 vs -19.4 priorCompany outlook -6.9 vs -13.4 priorPrices paid +21.5 vs +20.4 priorNew orders -1.3 vs -2.2 priorShipments +2.8 vs -3.0 priorEmployment -2.9 vs -5.3 prior The pricing numbers all ticked higher. Comments in the report are much more negative than the report numbers. Food manufacturing We

Dallas Fed June manufacturing index -15.1 vs -19.4 prior Read More »

Canada announces 30-day consultation on China EV tariffs

Canadian Finance Minister Freeland announced a 30-day consultation on potential tariffs on Chinese-made EVs. They will look at restricting what kinds of vehicles are eligible for Canada’s consumer EV incentives. Canada let so many industries go and told them to ‘learn to code’ but now in a ‘climate emergency’ this is the one they decide

Canada announces 30-day consultation on China EV tariffs Read More »

Germany June Ifo business climate index 88.6 vs 89.7 expected

Prior 89.3Current conditions 88.3 vs 88.5 expectedPrior 88.3Expectations 89.0 vs 91.0 expectedPrior 90.4; revised to 90.3 Slight delay in the release by the source. The German business climate declined in June, missing on estimates in all three readings. That’s not a good sign on how economic sentiment is holding up towards the end of Q2.

Germany June Ifo business climate index 88.6 vs 89.7 expected Read More »

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – We are back at the key support zone

Fundamental Overview Despite good data on the inflation and growth front, Bitcoin couldn’t find a sustained bid amid the generally positive risk sentiment. There was no real catalyst for the drop other than a key technical support getting breached. We got a quick drop into a key support zone today which will likely attract more

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – We are back at the key support zone Read More »

BOC’s Macklem: Increasingly we look to be on our way to hitting inflation target

We continue to think we don’t need a large rise in the jobless rate to get inflation to targetThere is room to grow and add jobs even as inflation moves closer to 2%Signs of financial stress are particularly evident among rentersWe can’t rule out bumps but increasingly we look to be on our way to

BOC’s Macklem: Increasingly we look to be on our way to hitting inflation target Read More »

ICYMI: Goolsbee says it’s worth wondering where we are on our restrictiveness scale

Highlights what ‘seems to be a cooling of consumer spending’It’s worth wondering where we are on our restrictiveness scaleIf we get more ‘months’ like the last one on inflation, coupled with more weakening data then you have to start questioning where we should be on ratesOptimistic we’ll see improvement in inflation dataHopeful that Fed will

ICYMI: Goolsbee says it’s worth wondering where we are on our restrictiveness scale Read More »

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The BoE weighs on the Pound

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment for the time

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The BoE weighs on the Pound Read More »

JustMarkets Awarded Best CFD Broker and Best IB/Affiliate Programme within UF Awards 2024

JustMarkets is an internationally trusted CFD broker that received two significant awards: Best IB/affiliate programme and Best CFD broker during iFX EXPO 2024 in Cyprus. iFX Expo International is one of the biggest events in the online finance world. Global brands, C-level professionals, startups, and fintech innovators gather to exchange experiences. More than 10,000 attendees

JustMarkets Awarded Best CFD Broker and Best IB/Affiliate Programme within UF Awards 2024 Read More »

Tech turbulence and healthcare stability: Insights from today’s market heatmap

Introduction: Mapping the Day’s Market Movements Today’s stock market presents a varied landscape of gains and losses across different sectors. A closer look at the market’s heatmap reveals significant trends that could shape investment strategies in the short term. Sector Overview Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector is notably struggling, with NVDA taking a sharp decline of

Tech turbulence and healthcare stability: Insights from today’s market heatmap Read More »

Market Outlook for the Week of 24 – 28 June

On Monday, the economic calendar is relatively light. In Canada, BoC Governor Macklem will deliver a speech titled “Workers, Jobs, Growth, and Inflation—Today and Tomorrow” at the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce. Tuesday brings inflation data for Canada, as well as the CB consumer confidence and the Richmond manufacturing index for the U.S. On Wednesday, attention

Market Outlook for the Week of 24 – 28 June Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen edgy to start the week

Headlines: The nerves are starting to show again in USD/JPYWhat are the main events for today?Weekly update on interest rates expectationsGermany June Ifo business climate index 88.6 vs 89.7 expectedUK June CBI trends total orders -18 vs -25 expectedSNB total sight deposits w.e. 21 June CHF 451.8 bn vs CHF 453.5 bn priorChina calls for

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen edgy to start the week Read More »

USDJPY Technical Analysis – We reached the intervention level

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment for the time

USDJPY Technical Analysis – We reached the intervention level Read More »

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 24 Jun – Quiet start for Asia-Pac

It’s been a quiet start to the week for Asia-Pac, with very little market-moving news and very little price action to get excited about. Equities: futures started the week on the softer side with marginal downside seen in equity futures (mostly across the board), but have since regained some composure albeit we are still down

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 24 Jun – Quiet start for Asia-Pac Read More »

US prosecutors recommend criminal charges against Boeing

Justice Department has until July 7th to decide whether to go ahead with prosecutionJustice department’s findings is that the company breached a 2021 agreement that shielded it from fraud chargesRelatives of the victims are urging the prosecutors to seek for a $25 billion fine as well as criminal prosecution Source: reuters This article was written

US prosecutors recommend criminal charges against Boeing Read More »

Japan Finance Minister Suzuki on the wires

Japan FinMin Suzuki: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Desirable for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Excessive FX change undesirable.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Want to respond appropriately as needed.Japan FinMin Suzuki says no comment, when asked if current FX moves are excessive. This article was written by Arno V Venter

Japan Finance Minister Suzuki on the wires Read More »

South Korea, Japan, US strongly condemn deepening Russia/North Korea military cooperation

South Korea, US, Japan strongly condemn deepening North Korea, Russia military cooperation – South Korea Foreign Ministry.South Korea, US, Japan say Putin’s visit to North Korea triggered grave concern – South Korea Foreign MinistrySouth Korea, U.S., Japan say they will further strengthen security cooperation to counter threats by North Korea – South Korea Foreign Ministry.

South Korea, Japan, US strongly condemn deepening Russia/North Korea military cooperation Read More »

Interest rate expectations for the Fed after Friday’s Flash PMI data

Despite a solid US Flash PMI print on Friday, money market bets for the Fed wasn’t much changed. Expectations into the data was for around 47 basis points of easing by year-end, and expectations stayed very close to that despite the beat. It’s important to keep in mind that there has been a disconnect between

Interest rate expectations for the Fed after Friday’s Flash PMI data Read More »

Japan FX Diplomat Kanda doesn’t comment on FX levels

Won’t comment on daily forex levels.Will take appropriate steps if there is excessive forex move.No impact at all from U.S. report on forex monitoring.US govt suggests there is no problem in Japan’s forex intervention.Don’t have specific forex level in mind.Will respond to rapid forex moves by speculators.Won’t comment if recent forex moves are excessive This

Japan FX Diplomat Kanda doesn’t comment on FX levels Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1201 (vs. estimate at 7.2647)

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1201 (vs. estimate at 7.2647) Read More »

Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 23 June 2024

Welcome to another trading week. Hope you all had a great weekend and is ready to get the show on the road. As usual, early Asia-Pac trading means thinner liquidity and lower volumes so always keep that in mind. For now, exchange rates for major FX pairs are as follows: EUR/USD 1.0688USD/JPY 159.79GBP/USD 1.2631USD/CHF 0.8934USD/CAD

Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 23 June 2024 Read More »

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include: US PCE, BoJ SOO, Biden/Trump debate

Week Ahead 24-28th June: Mon: BoJ Summary of Opinions, German Ifo Survey (Jun), German Import Prices (May) Tue: Japanese Services PPI (May), Canadian CPI (May), UK GDP (Q1) Wed: Australian CPI (May), German GfK Consumer Sentiment Thu: Biden/Trump debate on CNN, Riksbank Announcement, CBRT Announcement, CNB Announcement, European Council, Chinese Industrial Profits YTD (May), EZ

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include: US PCE, BoJ SOO, Biden/Trump debate Read More »

Key Events and Releases to Watch Next Week in Trading

Mon, Jun 24, 3 AM ET. USD: FOMC member Waller speakingMon, Jun 24, 1:45pm CAD: BOC Gov Macklem Speaks Tuesday June 25 Tue, Jun 25, 8:30am CAD: CPI m/m (Estimate: 0.3%, Previous: 0.5%), Median CPI y/y (Estimate: 2.6%, Previous: 2.6%),Trimmed CPI y/y (Estimate: 2.8%, Previous: 2.9%)Tue, Jun 25, 10:00am USD: CB Consumer Confidence (Estimate: 100.2,

Key Events and Releases to Watch Next Week in Trading Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 21 Jun: The USD moves higher helped better flash S&P

US equities finish the week on a soft noteKey Events and Releases to Watch Next Week in TradingGold rally proves short-lived as it falls $40MUFG: BOJ likely to raise rates next month, MOF under pressure to interveneBaker Hughes oil rig count -3 to 485European equity close: Soft finish but a better weekUS May existing home

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 21 Jun: The USD moves higher helped better flash S&P Read More »

Tune in Monday for the Bank of Japan Summary of its June meeting

The Bank of Japan meeting in June produced the commitment to trim back JGB buying from the following, July, meeting: Will decide on specific bond buying reduction plan for the next 1-2 years at next policy meeting.BOJ governor Ueda says will begin tapering bond purchases immediately after July meeting On Monday we’ll get more detail

Tune in Monday for the Bank of Japan Summary of its June meeting Read More »

Japan will resume subsidies for utilites and continue with gasoline subsidies

Fuji News Network (FNN) citing Prime Minister Kishida: to resume utility subsidiesto maintain gasoline subsidies Also, via NHK: Japan’s government is in the final preparation stage to adopt additionnal steps to ease the burden of higher electricity and gas prices USD/JPY is off from its earlier highs: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Japan will resume subsidies for utilites and continue with gasoline subsidies Read More »

MUFG: BOJ likely to raise rates next month, MOF under pressure to intervene

MUFG highlights the yen’s recent weakening trend and anticipates the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising rates at next month’s meeting. Concurrently, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) faces increased pressure to intervene in the currency markets to prevent the yen from further depreciation beyond critical levels. Key Points: Yen Weakness and Intervention Reversal: USD/JPY has risen

MUFG: BOJ likely to raise rates next month, MOF under pressure to intervene Read More »

Treasury proposes ban on many investments in Chinese semiconductor production

The US is determined to dominate semiconductors and not allow China to catch up. New proposed rules restrict US investment in key sectorsRules ban certain investments in design, automation, fabrication and advanced packaging toolsQuantum computers and AI also targeted Proposes notification requirements for all other investments in Chinese AI system development The US is going

Treasury proposes ban on many investments in Chinese semiconductor production Read More »

European equity close: Soft finish but a better week

Closing changes in the main European bourses: Stoxx 600 -0.6%German DAX -0.35%UK FTSE 100 -0.4%French CAC -0.4%Italy MIB -0.9%Spain IBEX -1.0% On the week: Stoxx 600 +0.9%German DAX +1.1%UK FTSE 100 +1.6%French CAC +1.8%Italy MIB +2.1%Spain IBEX +0.5% These are some nice weekly numbers but they come after a battering on political worries. This article

European equity close: Soft finish but a better week Read More »

Fed’s Barkin says wants clearer signals on falling inflation before a rate cut

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin: wants to see clearer signs of falling inflation before a rate cutsays the Federal Reserve is positioned well, has necessary tools for the jobthe flow of data will determine further moves after the first rate cut This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Barkin says wants clearer signals on falling inflation before a rate cut Read More »

GBPJPY tests the highs from last week after dip today bounced off MA support

The GBPJPY has been on an upward trend this week, but it turned lower during the European session following weaker-than-expected flash PMI data. The price dropped below its 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart above at 200.77) but found support near the 200-hour moving average and the lower boundary of a swing area

GBPJPY tests the highs from last week after dip today bounced off MA support Read More »

France June business confidence 99 vs 99 prior

Prior 99Manufacturing confidence 99Prior 99Services confidence 101Prior 101; revised to 102 The French business climate remains steady in June, keeping just under its long-term average of 100. The services reading was marginally lower on the month while manufacturing is seen unchanged from May. Of note, employment conditions did ease a touch though with the reading

France June business confidence 99 vs 99 prior Read More »

Canada April retail sales +0.7% vs +0.7% expected

Prior was -0.2%Ex autos +1.8% vs +0.7% expectedEx autos and gasoline +1.4%Motor vehicle and parts dealers -2.2%Food and beverage retailers +1.9%, led by grocery storesAlberta +3.1%, Ontario -1.0% with Toronto sales -2.5% (Toronto is weakest housing market right now)Preliminary May data -0.6% m/m Yesterday, RBC reported a slump in Canadian discretionary spending in May so

Canada April retail sales +0.7% vs +0.7% expected Read More »

Market dynamics explored: Tech surges while semiconductors slide

Today’s snapshot of the US stock market Today’s trading session highlighted a distinct divergence in market sector performance, with technology generally outpacing other areas, although noteworthy declines were observed in the semiconductor subsector. 📉 Semiconductor Sector Analysis A significant red zone in today’s heatmap is unmistakably the semiconductor sector, led by a sharp 3.04% fall

Market dynamics explored: Tech surges while semiconductors slide Read More »

AUDUSD moves lower and tests converged 100/200 bar MAs on 4-hour chart at 0.6638

The AUDUSD this week traded down to test a swing area between 0.6575 and 0.6590. The subsequent move to the upside then tested the high of a swing area between 0.6677 and 0.66896 (see the chart below). Staying with the confines of the “red box” where most of the trading has taken place over the

AUDUSD moves lower and tests converged 100/200 bar MAs on 4-hour chart at 0.6638 Read More »

China warns of ‘trade war’ if EU continues to escalate trade frictions

The responsibility lies entirely with the EU sideHopes that EU would meet China halfway and handle differences through dialogue For some context, the EU launched five new anti-dumping investigations against China in May. That was seen totaling to roughly $1.71 billion. And they are following that up with proposed tariffs on Chinese electric cars. If

China warns of ‘trade war’ if EU continues to escalate trade frictions Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Euro slips after soggy PMI data

Headlines: Japanese yen stays in focus as inflation data slows further in MayEuro, yields dip on softer French and German PMI readingsFrance June flash services PMI 48.8 vs 50.0 expectedGermany June flash manufacturing PMI 43.4 vs 46.4 expectedEurozone June flash services PMI 52.6 vs 53.5 expectedUK June flash services PMI 51.2 vs 53.0 expectedUK May

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Euro slips after soggy PMI data Read More »

JP Morgan says covering of shorts, less short selling, helpful in fueling higher equities

A note via JP Morgan says less short selling, combined with short covering, has been a factor fuelling the run for stocks, a “steady flow of support”. JPM nominate one support for the US equity market over the past 12 months has originated from a fall in short interest on the two biggest equity ETFs,

JP Morgan says covering of shorts, less short selling, helpful in fueling higher equities Read More »

BOJ’s Uchida: Uncertainty surrounding economic, price outlook remains high

Japanese economy is recovering moderately, albeit with some weak signsUnderlying inflation likely to gradually accelerateYet to decide on specifics of bond tapering planBut size of reduction in bond purchases likely to be significant For now, it seems like only the bond taper is on the cards for July. There’s no mention of any follow up

BOJ’s Uchida: Uncertainty surrounding economic, price outlook remains high Read More »

The NZD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as the NA sesson begins

As the NA session begins the NZD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. The USD is mixed. In Japan all hands are on deck to slow the JPYs fall. Overnight,Japan’s officials, including Masato Kanda, Finance Minister Suzuki, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi, emphasized the need for stable foreign exchange (FX) levels and

The NZD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as the NA sesson begins Read More »

Heads up for San Francisco Fed President Daly speaking soon

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly is speaking as part of a panel: “The Transformative Power of AI: How is Technology Changing Our Lives?” in coordination with Syracuse University and the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. The topic doesn’t sound like there will be anything from here on the economy

Heads up for San Francisco Fed President Daly speaking soon Read More »

USD/CAD edges higher after softer retail sales data and PPI. BOC cut odds rise

The July Bank of Canada decision is shifting more-decisively towards a rate cut after today’s softer retail sales and PPI numbers. The market is now pricing in a 73% chance of a back-to-back cut. Retail sales matched the +0.7% estimate for April but the May advance report showed a 0.6% decline and the March reading

USD/CAD edges higher after softer retail sales data and PPI. BOC cut odds rise Read More »

Kickstart the FX trading day for June 21 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

In the kickstart video for June 21, I take a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective and explain what the bias is, what the risks are, and what the targets are for each. The EURUSD corrected up to tested 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low at

Kickstart the FX trading day for June 21 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD Read More »

USDCHF tests the highs for the week after the sharp rebound after the SNB rate cut

The Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday and that reversed the downward bias that the USDCHF was experiencing going into the rate decision. The subsequent move higher move back above the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2023 low at 0.8883, a swing area between 0.8881 and 0.8892,

USDCHF tests the highs for the week after the sharp rebound after the SNB rate cut Read More »

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says stable FX levels are desirable

Earlier in the session we had Kanda: Japan’s Kanda says ready to take action if excessive FX move seen Hayashi now: Addition of Japan to the US currency monitoring list does not mean that Japan’s foreign exchange policy is a problemStable forex levels are desirableImportant that forex rates reflect fundamentalsWill continue to closely monitor moves

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says stable FX levels are desirable Read More »

The FX moves this week leave a lot to be desired

Here are the changes among key dollar pairs on the week as we look to the final day of US trading later: EUR/USD: -0.1%USD/JPY: +0.9%GBP/USD: -0.2%USD/CHF: +0.3%USD/CAD: -0.3%AUD/USD: +0.6%NZD/USD: -0.2% Outside of the Japanese yen and perhaps arguably the aussie, the changes on the week are rather insignificant thus far. The mid-week break also didn’t

The FX moves this week leave a lot to be desired Read More »

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY pops above 159.10 briefly

Tune in Monday for the Bank of Japan Summary of its June meetingBank of Spain Deputy Governor speaking FridayJapan will resume subsidies for utilites and continue with gasoline subsidiesEx-Fed Bullard says he expects a slow pace of rate cuts from the FOMCNorth Korean soldiers crossed into South Korea again, the third time this month (so

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY pops above 159.10 briefly Read More »

North Korean soldiers crossed into South Korea again, the third time this month (so far)

South Korean media (Yonhap) report on the third crossing of North Korean troops into South Korea so far in June. Both previous crossings were said to be unintentional, as was this third. Hard to believe really. North Korean troops working in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) briefly crossed the border into the Southcrossed the Military Demarcation

North Korean soldiers crossed into South Korea again, the third time this month (so far) Read More »

Australia preliminary June PMI: Manufacturing 47.5 (prior 49.7) Services 51.0 (prior 52.5)

Preliminary Judo Bank S&P Australian Manufacturing PMI 47.5 prior 49.7 Services 51.0 prior 52.5 Composite 50.5 prior 52.1 Wow, what an awful set of numbers. Early 2024 was promising but that’s fallen in a heap now. Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank this in brief on the employment and inflation aspects: “The composite

Australia preliminary June PMI: Manufacturing 47.5 (prior 49.7) Services 51.0 (prior 52.5) Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2698 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2698 – Reuters estimate Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1196 (vs. estimate at 7.2698)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1196 (vs. estimate at 7.2698) Read More »

Japan finance minister Suzuki – excessive, disorderly fx moves could hurt economies

Japan finance minister Suzuki: To visit Seoul on June 25 to meet with s. Korean counterpartWill communicate closely with US, other countries on FX based on G7 agreement that excessive, disorderly fx moves could hurt economiesDon’t think US sees Japan’s fx policy as problematic Suzuki joins in with earlier verbal intervention efforts today: Japan’s Kanda

Japan finance minister Suzuki – excessive, disorderly fx moves could hurt economies Read More »

Trump immigration policy – College graduates to automatically get a Green Card

Trump news crossing on immigration policy If you graduate from a college you should get automatically as part of your diploma a green card to be able to stay in United States Info comes via Reuters. I’m no politics expert but amongst those looking for greater US productivity growth this is going to be a

Trump immigration policy – College graduates to automatically get a Green Card Read More »

Japan’s Kanda says ready to take action if excessive FX move seen

Masato Kanda is vice-minister for international affairs at Japan’s Ministry of Finance. He is the official who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary, and is often referred to as Japan’s ‘top currency diplomat’. US exchange rate list assessed against mechanical criteriaReady to take actions if excess fx move seenFx intervention

Japan’s Kanda says ready to take action if excessive FX move seen Read More »

ICYMI – Yellen spoke Thursday on inflation, China tariffs

US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke On Thursday. In her remarks were comments on inflation and China. Yellen firmly stepping into election territory here: Biden understands struggles of American households with higher costs for housing, basic necessitiesBiden wants to cut taxes for hardworking families through expansion of child tax creditBiden has made affordability a top priority

ICYMI – Yellen spoke Thursday on inflation, China tariffs Read More »

USD/CNH surging towards 7.30 as the PBoC dial back yuan support – fixing coming soon

USD/CNH and USD/CNY have risen again overnight. The background to the weaker yuan is that the People’s Bank of China has loosened up on dampening USD/CNY, we had a warning of this on Monday: HSBC expect the USD/CNY reference rate to drift higher (yuan weaker) And since then the Bank have indeed allowed the CNY

USD/CNH surging towards 7.30 as the PBoC dial back yuan support – fixing coming soon Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US housing starts plunge

US May housing starts 1.277m vs 1.370m expectedUS initial jobless claims 238K vs 235k estimateUS June Philly Fed +1.3 vs +5.0 expectedUS sells 5-year TIPS at 2.050%France election poll: National Rally leading, Macron lags behindWhite House’s Brainard: There is every reason to expect further inflation progressEIA weekly crude oil inventories -2547K vs -2200K expectedAtlanta Fed

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US housing starts plunge Read More »

Bank of America has lowered its forecast on EUR/USD, not liking the dollar as much either

Bank of America forecasts for EUR/USD: 1.12 at the end of 20241.17 at the end of 2025 (from previously projecting 1.20)1.20 in 2026 BoA citing: Federal Reserve to cut, but more gradually than previously thoughtSay that with persistent inflation it’ll be a shallow easing cycle Despite the timing of its EUR/USD forecast B of A

Bank of America has lowered its forecast on EUR/USD, not liking the dollar as much either Read More »

US Treasury report clears Japan of FX manipulation, but says will monitor them

This from the US Treasury twice yearly currency manipulation report Found that no major US trading partner manipulated currency to gain unfair trade advantage in four quarters through December 2023Found no major trading partner met criteria for enhanced analysis in four quarters ending December 2023Monitoring list of trading partners whose currency practices ‘merit close attention’

US Treasury report clears Japan of FX manipulation, but says will monitor them Read More »

Canada’s government is preparing a potential tariff package on Chinese-made EVs

Ontario Premier Doug Ford was in the news on Thursday calling on the federal government to place a 100% tariff on electric vehicles manufactured in China. Ford warned that not doing so places jobs at “risk” in Ontario. – Ford may have been playing a bit of politics, the Canadian govmt has such tariffs under

Canada’s government is preparing a potential tariff package on Chinese-made EVs Read More »

Economic calendar in Asia Friday, 21 June 2024 – Tokyo CPI & flash PMIs Japan + Australia

Tokyo inflation data the focus. USD/JPY has continued its rise, this gave it a little tailwind yesterday: Japan survey of firms – very few believe wage growth quicker than inflation achievable But it was heading higher regardless. Evan Kanda couldn’t stop it: Japan top currency diplomat says there is no limit to FX intervention resources

Economic calendar in Asia Friday, 21 June 2024 – Tokyo CPI & flash PMIs Japan + Australia Read More »

Crude oil settles August settles up $0.58 at $81.28.

Crude oil for August settled up $0.58 at $81.29. That’s up $0.58 or 0.71% Today, EIA weekly inventory data showed Crude oil stocks had a drawdown of-2.547M versus expectations of a drawdown of -2.200 million barrelsGasoline stocks had a surprise drawdown of -2.280 million versus expectations of a build of 0.620 million barrelsDistilates showed a

Crude oil settles August settles up $0.58 at $81.28. Read More »

Wealthy younger people are destined to be terrible investors

Bank of America is out with a survey of wealthy investors but they divided them into two cohorts: Ages 21-43 and age 44+. The results are shockingly different. Young investors see real estate and crypto as top opportunities, while U.S. stocks rank lowest. A striking 72% of them believe it’s impossible to achieve above-average returns

Wealthy younger people are destined to be terrible investors Read More »

SNB chairman Jordan: Swiss franc appreciation is due to political uncertainties

Swiss franc has significantly increased in past few weeksUnderlying inflation pressure has decreasedWe will continue to monitor developments closely, adjust policy if necessaryWilling to be active in foreign exchange markets as necessary The comment on the franc having “significantly increased” does change things up a bit. That perhaps says they are comfortable with the currency

SNB chairman Jordan: Swiss franc appreciation is due to political uncertainties Read More »

France election poll: National Rally leading, Macron lags behind

According to a Harris interactive poll on the France election: Far-right National Rally (RN) party seen leading first round of French Parliament election with 220-250 seats.Left Wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition seen in second place of French election with 135-165 seats.Macron’s ‘Together’ centrist camp seen in third place of French election with 95-130 seats.Conservative

France election poll: National Rally leading, Macron lags behind Read More »

EIA weekly crude oil inventories -2547K vs -2200K expected

This data was delayed because of the US holiday yesterday. WTI crude oil was trading 60-cents higher ahead of the release. The consensus is: Prior was +3730K Gasoline -2280K vs +620K expectedDistillates -1726K vs +261K expectedProduction unchanged at 13.2 mbpdRefinery utilization -1.5% vs +0.1% expected Tuesday’s API reading was surprisingly bearish, though the market has

EIA weekly crude oil inventories -2547K vs -2200K expected Read More »

PBOC Loan Prime Rates (LPR) remain unchanged at today’s rate setting, as expected

The unchanged rates were widely expected after the MLF was unchanged earlier this week: People’s Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%) The hold today is despite subdued economic data and widespread expectations that the Bank will be forced to cut rates at some stage. A critical constraint on the

PBOC Loan Prime Rates (LPR) remain unchanged at today’s rate setting, as expected Read More »

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – A look at the chart ahead of the BoE

Fundamental Overview The USD has been generally weaker this week after the strength seen last week due to some risk off sentiment. In fact, it looks like it’s just sentiment that’s been driving the market recently as fundamentally the soft US inflation figures just consolidated the market’s expectation of two cuts for this year despite

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – A look at the chart ahead of the BoE Read More »

USD/JPY is on track for the highest close of the year in sixth consecutive gain

USD/JPY has risen for six straight trading days and is up another 64 pips today to the highest levels since the April 28 spike higher and intervention. A close here would be the highest since 1990. There are about Japanese banks after Norinchukin Bank said it will sell $63 billion of sovereign bonds, mostly Treasuries

USD/JPY is on track for the highest close of the year in sixth consecutive gain Read More »

The AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins

As the North American session begins the AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The USD is mostly stronger with declines only vs the AUD. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 1.25% from the previous 1.50%. This decision, announced as

The AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins Read More »

USDCHF pushes higher after SNB rate cut. Technically, price is back above key levels.

The USDCHF moved lower earlier this week, breaking below its 200 day moving average and 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2023 low. Those levels come in at 0.88958 and 0.8883 respectively. Today, the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25 basis points which was a tossup. That sent the USDCHF higher

USDCHF pushes higher after SNB rate cut. Technically, price is back above key levels. Read More »

Tech and healthcare lead today’s stock market dance

Introduction Today’s stock market presents a dynamic ballet of sector performances, signified by prominent growth in tech and healthcare amidst minor slumps in consumer electronics. Our deep dive into the heatmap shows how different sectors tell their own stories, shaping investor sentiment and future market endeavors. Tech Triumphs, Semiconductor Woes The Tech sector shows a

Tech and healthcare lead today’s stock market dance Read More »

White House’s Brainard: There is every reason to expect further inflation progress

There is not enough progress on healthcare and housing pricesThe aberrations in Q1 inflation haven’t stretched into Q2 I take these comments with a grain of salt, as she’s not exactly an unbiased voice now. However the comment about the ‘aberration’ in particular shows how some in the Fed are seeing inflation, or how they

White House’s Brainard: There is every reason to expect further inflation progress Read More »

Kickstart the FX trading day for June 20 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

In the kickstart video for June 20, 2024, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: The EURUSD held resistance against the 200 hour MA yesterday and again today. That moving average currently comes in at 1.0743. Stay below that level keeps the sellers more

Kickstart the FX trading day for June 20 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Franc, sterling fall after central bank decisions

Headlines: BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expectedAugust back in the picture for the BOE?SNB cuts key policy rate by 25 bps to 1.25% from 1.50% previouslySNB chairman Jordan: FX intervention can be in both directionsSwiss franc falls as SNB continues with rate cutsECB’s Knot: Optimal policy path is broadly in line with

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Franc, sterling fall after central bank decisions Read More »

SNB cuts key policy rate by 25 bps to 1.25% from 1.50% previously

Prior 1.50%Ready to intervene in FX market if needed and as necessaryA renewed increase in geopolitical tensions could result in weaker global activityAble to maintain appropriate monetary conditions as suchWill adjust monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium-termInflation in Switzerland is currently being driven

SNB cuts key policy rate by 25 bps to 1.25% from 1.50% previously Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1192 (vs. estimate at 7.2653)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1192 (vs. estimate at 7.2653) Read More »

SNB chairman Jordan: FX intervention can be in both directions

There has been appreciation in the Swiss francThat has an impact on monetary conditionsExchange rate plays a very important role as it influences inflation outlookWill adjust policy rate to ensure inflation stays in the range of price stability The fact that he continues to allude to the franc having appreciated should be a signal that

SNB chairman Jordan: FX intervention can be in both directions Read More »

Federal Reserve speakers Thursday include Kashkari, Barkin, Daly

It looks like Barkin may have the most interesting comments given the topic. Times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format 1245/0845 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat before the Michigan Bankers Association Annual Conference From Kashkari earlier: Fed’s Kashkari says its reasonable that rate cut could come

Federal Reserve speakers Thursday include Kashkari, Barkin, Daly Read More »

US initial jobless claims 238K vs 235k estimate

Prior week 242KInitial jobless claims 238K vs 235K estimate4-week moving averege 232.75K vs 227.25K last weekContinuing Claims 1.828M vs 1.805M estimatePrior week continuing claims 1.820M revised to 1.813M4-week Moving average for continuing claims 1.806M vs 1.795M last week The claims data is for the survey week and as such is higher than the prior month.

US initial jobless claims 238K vs 235k estimate Read More »

US CPC: July-Sept temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures for much of the US

Surface temperatures are above average in the west-central Pacific oceanLa Nina watch now in effect, favored to develop during July-Sept (65% chance) and persist into winter 2024-25Temp outlook favors enhanced probabilities of above normal temp reaching 60-70% are found over the Gulf coast We are just out of the warmer El Nino phase and now

US CPC: July-Sept temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures for much of the US Read More »

ICYMI – New Zealand Q2 consumer confidence falls to 82.2 from 93.2 in Q1

There is a hiccup on the data calendar, this was out earlier in the week so just clarifying that: Westpac McDermott Miller consumer sentiment survey for the second quarter of 2024 — You’ll not next up from NZ is the economic growth data for Q1, quickie preview here, along with another for the PBOC rate

ICYMI – New Zealand Q2 consumer confidence falls to 82.2 from 93.2 in Q1 Read More »

ECB’s Knot: Optimal policy path is broadly in line with just under three rate cuts in 2024

There is strong case for using projection meetings to recalibrate policy stanceHigh uncertainty warrants a data-dependent approachDisinflation process remains bumpyNot all the signs are green yet when it comes to core inflationRecent shift in market expectations shows that the road to meet inflation target is bumpyWe can look through small deviations from target as long

ECB’s Knot: Optimal policy path is broadly in line with just under three rate cuts in 2024 Read More »

NVIDIA leads the charge in a bull market

The excitement around artificial intelligence is beginning to resemble the California gold rush; only now are companies, not individuals, chasing the new El Dorado. Representatives of all industries seem determined to incorporate the latest technology into their operations to increase productivity and reduce costs. Merchants find themselves in a situation similar to that of 150

NVIDIA leads the charge in a bull market Read More »

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The positive sentiment lifts the Kiwi

Fundamental Overview The USD has been generally weaker this week after the strength seen last week due to some risk off sentiment. In fact, it looks like it’s just sentiment that’s been driving the market recently as fundamentally the soft US inflation figures just consolidated the market’s expectation of two cuts for this year despite

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The positive sentiment lifts the Kiwi Read More »

Germany’s Ifo institute raises 2024 GDP forecast, says “new hope is emerging”

On the optimistic change, Ifo says that: “The German economy is slowly working its way out of the crisis. New hope is now emerging. The second half of 2024 should be significantly better than the first. As the year progresses, the purchasing power of private households should continue to gain strength and the overall economic

Germany’s Ifo institute raises 2024 GDP forecast, says “new hope is emerging” Read More »

Japan survey of firms – very few believe wage growth quicker than inflation achievable

Reuters Japan corporate survey: Only 7% of Japanese companies believe PM Kishida’s pledge to have wages grow faster than inflation is achievable 61% of japanese companies see no need for govt to take countermeasures against China’s excess production capacity That 7% on wage rises is troubling for the Bank of Japan’s inflation goal – the

Japan survey of firms – very few believe wage growth quicker than inflation achievable Read More »

Japan top currency diplomat says there is no limit to FX intervention resources

Will thoroughly respond to excessive FX movesFX market is determined by various factors, including interest rate differentialsRecent FX intervention was quiet effective in responding to speculators A bit of verbal jawboning there as USD/JPY continues to trickle higher since last week. The pair is holding just above 158.00 now, not much changed from before the

Japan top currency diplomat says there is no limit to FX intervention resources Read More »