NZ business confidence fell sharply in Q1 as Hormuz disruptions lifted uncertainty. Activity held steady but hiring and investment weakened. Inflation pressures remain contained, with RBNZ still expected to begin tightening later this year. New Zealand Q1 business confidence -4% vs 48% prior New Zealand Q1 capacity utilisation 91.2% vs 89.8% prior Summary: Business confidence […]

Sector Overview: Tech and Consumer Cyclical Provide Lift The US stock market today showcases a resilient tech sector, with significant gains driven by Microsoft (MSFT), which is up 1.89%. This upward movement underscores a positive sentiment surrounding software infrastructure stocks, supported further by Oracle (ORCL), showing a solid 3.07% increase. The consumer cyclical sector also

We are still dealing with the legacy of the policy errors in 2021 and 2022 Once you let inflation take hold, it’s harder to bring down We need fundamental policy reforms to fix inflation Inflation is less severe but Americans are still feeling it Says he wants a new inflation framework We need new tools

Prior was +0.6% Ex-autos +1.9% vs +1.4% expected Prior ex autos +0.5% Ex autos and gas ++0.6% vs +0.4% prior (revised to +0.2%) Control group +0.7% vs +0.2% expected Prior control +0.5% Retail sales y/y +% vs +3.7% prior Never underestimate the spending power of the US consumer. That’s two solid data points today ahead

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos suggests the central bank has to maintain a “cool head” and be cautious on interest rates adjustments amid the geopolitical uncertainty. While headline inflation has recently spiked to 2.6% due to the US-Iran war, core inflation moderated further towards the 2% target (2.3% in March). The ECB projections suggest

A couple of data points from New Zealand today. NZIER Survey of Business Opinion (Q1) Westpac notes the Q1 NZIER Survey of Business Opinion points to a fragile recovery backdrop, with headline confidence improving modestly but underlying activity still soft. Firms reported a slight lift in expected own activity, suggesting conditions may be stabilising after

Prior -0.5 Current conditions -73.7 vs -70.0 expected Prior -62.9 That’s the worst reading since December 2022 as the fallout from the US-Iran conflict continues to weigh heavily on German investor morale. Surging energy prices is the key issue and that’s reverberating across to many parts of the economy, even with gas prices coming off

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.1760 and 1.1800 levels. The technical snapshot for the currency pair right now is that price action is settling between some key near-term levels. The floor is set out

Westpac sees the US dollar weakening as markets look through Middle East risks, with improving trade flows and global growth expected to support EUR, GBP and emerging market currencies. Summary: USD struggling to rally despite Middle East tensions Markets pricing gradual normalisation in shipping flows Westpac sees sustained USD downtrend ahead Euro, sterling, yen and

This is very much a formality process but Warsh still has to play his part in keeping appearances to get officially be confirmed as Fed chair. The testimony is just the hearing before lawmakers with everything else already settled. It’s now a question of when with the investigation probe on Powell still ongoing. That is

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold rallied on Friday following a barrage of positive news on the US-Iran front that seemed to point to an imminent deal after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The positive price action reversed heading into the weekend though after Trump said that the US would keep the blockade of

Silver consolidates above a key support ahead of ceasefire deadline; eyes on US-Iran talks BoJ to hold rates steady in April – Nikkei Germany April ZEW economic sentiment -17.2 vs -5.0 expected ECB’s de Guindos: ECB has to keep cool head, be cautious on rates Iran state media says that no delegation has yet departed

Westpac sees US dollar weakening as markets look through energy shock and tensions Recapping – NZD rises after CPI beat as markets price higher odds of May RBNZ rate hike Japan fin min says closely monitoring financial markets, will take measure if needed China shows resilience to energy shock but weak demand limits growth outlook,

NZ CPI held at 3.1% y/y in Q1, above target, with electricity and petrol driving gains. Quarterly inflation rose 0.9%, underscoring persistent price pressures and supporting expectations for a cautious RBNZ policy stance. This is January – March data, ahead of the fuel shock. Bear that in mind… Summary: Annual CPI holds at 3.1%, above

Japan finmin Katayama: Seeing high volatility in financial markets, closely watching with high sense of vigilance Continue to closely monitor financial markets, will take measures if needed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump tweeting, is he laying the ground work for a deal not involving getting the dust? Operation Midnight Hammer was a complete and total obliteration of nuclear dust sites in Iran Digging nuclear dust sites in Iran out will be a long and difficult process This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump is out with a lengthy post on Truth Social: The DEAL that we are making with Iran will be FAR BETTER than the JCPOA, commonly referred to as “The Iran Nuclear Deal,” penned by Barack Hussein Obama and Sleepy Joe Biden, one of the Worst Deals ever made having to do with the Security

BOJ survey shows flat loan demand and stable credit conditions, pointing to weak domestic momentum and supporting a cautious, gradual policy tightening path despite persistent inflation pressures. Summary: Loan demand broadly flat across firms, households and governments Credit conditions stable, neither tightening nor easing materially Manufacturing relatively resilient; smaller firms weaker Household demand mixed, consumer

Shuffling at Apple. Effective September 1, 2026 Tim Cook to become Apple executive chairman, will assist with certain aspects of co, including engaging with policymakers around the world John Ternus, currently senior VP of hardware engineering, to become Apple CEO This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NZD rose after a stronger CPI print lifted expectations for a May RBNZ hike, while bond yields jumped and business confidence weakened, highlighting a growing tension between inflation pressures and slowing growth. Summary: NZD rises after stronger-than-expected CPI Q1 inflation beats, annual CPI holds above target Markets price ~45% chance of May RBNZ hike Bond

With the amount of headlines crossing, the misinformation and disinformation, I’m not sure we managed to gather all too much yesterday. The bottom line is that Iran has returned to maintaining a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the weekend. And after, Tehran officials are maintaining a hard line in their negotiating

Fitch says China remains resilient to global energy shocks but weak consumer demand is limiting growth, with fiscal deficits staying elevated and risks rising if energy disruptions hit trade and manufacturing. Summary: China seen resilient to global energy shock Domestic consumption remains weak, confidence subdued No near-term acceleration in household demand Fiscal deficit to remain

Prior 5.2% Employment change 25k vs 35k expected Prior 84k Average weekly earnings +3.8% vs +3.6% 3m/y expected Prior +3.9%; revised to +4.1% Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.6% vs +3.5% 3m/y expected Prior +3.8% March payrolls change -11k Prior 20k; revised to -6k The standout number is the one in the headline, which sees

This is via the Wall Street Journal conveying Kevin Warsh’s views. On inflation he clearly speaks with forked tongue. Inflation in the US has been creeping higher over the past year, above the Bank’s 2% target. All this time Warshy has been calling for rate cuts. LOL. Summary: Warsh says Fed independence depends on internal

Pakistan has reportedly urged both Washington and Tehran to prolong the ceasefire by a further two weeks, while local media suggest Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif could formally announce an extension as early as Tuesday, according to Al Arabiya. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China signalled readiness to advance talks on upgrading its Switzerland FTA, aiming to expand cooperation into services, digital trade and investment, reinforcing support for open trade amid global protectionist pressures. Summary: China signals willingness to advance China–Switzerland FTA upgrade Talks aim for “high-standard” agreement covering services and digital economy Existing 2014 FTA already removes most

US stocks fell on Monday to halt a 13-day winning streak in the Nasdaq but the fall was hardly a retracement as the index declined by just 0.3% after a monster, 15% rally since the final day of March. The trigger for the selling (as if one was needed) was the failure of Friday’s announcement

This is just a data post. New Zealand Q1 consumer price index +0.9% q/q (expected +0.8%, prior +0.6%) +3.1% vs year ago (expected +2.9%, prior +3.1%) Non-tradables +1.1% q/q Non-tradables +3.5% y/y A shorthand way of thinking about ‘non tradeables’ is domestically generated inflation. I’ll have more to come on this separately, details and implications.

Iran’s top negotiator (Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf) rejected negotiations conducted under threat, saying Trump is attempting to shift talks into what he described as a “table of surrender.” Earlier: Pakistan may announce US-Iran ceasefire extension of 2 weeks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump: My deal will be better than JCPOA Trump: I’m winning the war by a lot Trump says ceasefire will end Wednesday, won’t open Strait until deal is signed Warsh to tell Congress he’s committed to ensuring monetary policy is strictly independent Canada’s Q1 Business Outlook Survey: sentiment bounces back, then the Middle East happened

At some point the dust will settle on the Iran war and I expect the Canadian dollar to be a beneficiary. Yes, that will mean lower oil prices and that will weaken Canada’s top export but the war has also exposed one-fifth of the world’s oil to be at risk of supply disruption. With that

More from Trump: I’m winning a War, BY A LOT, things are going very well, our Military has been amazing and, if you read the Fake News, like The Failing New York Times, the absolutely horrendous and disgusting Wall Street Journal, or the now almost defunct, fortunately, Washington Post, you would actually think we are

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 eventually reached a new all-time highs after a crazy rally since the start of April on growing expectations of an end to the war. The playbook has been very similar to April 2025 when we first get Trump backtracking on tariffs (this time Trump started talking about ceasefire) and then

The ceasefire is scheduled to end late today after 14 days but if talks are scheduled for Wednesday then presumably that will be extended. That said, I don’t know how good CNN’s reporting is here because an hour ago, Trump spoke to the New York Post and said the US delegation was on the way

I don’t take this as a meaningful headline but oil prices are ticking lower on it. A US plane arrived in Islamabad today’ that presumably carrying JD Vance. He wouldn’t be going there if Iran hadn’t already agreed to talks, despite some of the rhetoric that’s been floating around. Update: Trump confirms that Vance is

Pakistan Army Chief Munir spoke to Trump, told him Hormuz blockade is hurdle to talks Trump told Munir he would consider his advice A senior Pakistani security source has confirmed that Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir held a conversation with US President Trump regarding the escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. During

Tech downturn: Energy pops while semiconductor sector struggles The stock market witnessed a turbulent day as tech giants found themselves in decline, while the energy sector shone brightly. The market displayed mixed signals, manifesting the volatile and uncertain dynamics of today’s trading landscape. 📉 Technology Sector: Clouds Over Semiconductors Semiconductors: Once again, the semiconductor sector

It’s going to be another messy week, innit? Hopes for peace talks did not last long as Iran refused any concessions with the US continuing to maintain its military presence in the region. Tehran was not happy with the naval blockade still put in place, thus deciding to “close” the Strait of Hormuz again. That

Headlines: Are markets waiting for Trump to come to the rescue once again? Oil prices rebound on escalating US-Iran tensions as ceasefire deadline approaches Iran continues to reaffirm that US demands have been “unserious” and “unrealistic” Differences over nuclear programme remains unresolved, says senior Iranian official Pakistan Army Chief Munir spoke to Trump, told him

Trump says it’s ‘highly unlikely’ he will extend negotiations and that he won’t open the Strait until a deal is signed. He said a meeting “could benefit everyone involved”. Tasnim reports at the same time that Iran isn’t keen to participate in negotiations, and that they are a waste of time. Al Jazeera reports: Tehran

This Iran war saga is unlike anything in modern markets. The amount of information, disinformation and utter nonsense is unprecedented. It’s a cesspit of information that’s nearly impossible to swim through without being dragged down into an abyss of uncertainty and second guessing. The market today is ignoring the collapse of Friday’s heralded reopening of

More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.5% CPI m/m +0.9% vs +1.1% expected Prior CPI m/m +0.5% Core measures: BOC core 2.5% vs 2.3% prior BOC core m/m +0.2% vs +0.4% prior Core CPI 0.0% m/m +0.2% vs prior CPI median +2.3% vs +2.3% expected (prior was 2.3%) CPI trim +2.2% vs 2.3% expected (prior was 2.3%) CPI common

There are just a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 level. The expiries hold close by to the 200-hour moving average of 1.1740 and may yet just play a role in terms of keeping price action more sticky in European

US futures trade is open for the new week, gaps: S&P500 futures -1%, NQ also Brent +7% CL +7% Early FX rates indicated the moves, as usual: Monday open FX (unlike the closed Strait of Hormuz). Indicative rates 20 April 2026. Oil and equity index futures open at the top of the hour. Early FX

The report cites two Pakistani officials in saying that “Iranian authorities have expressed willingness to send a delegation for a second round of talks in Islamabad this week”. Adding that there is “cautious optimism” between the US and Iran but could not share details of travel plans for either side due to security reasons. Iran

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar extended the losses on Friday following a barrage of positive news on the US-Iran front that seemed to point to an imminent deal after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The greenback eventually erased the losses heading into the weekend after Trump said that the US

US envoy Waltz said all options, including strikes on Iran infrastructure, remain on the table ahead of talks, signalling continued pressure and keeping escalation risks elevated despite diplomatic efforts. Summary: The United States stepped up its messaging campaign over the weekend, with Ambassador Mike Waltz delivering a coordinated series of interviews and statements that reinforced

The March data shows: Producer prices (monthly) +2.5% m/m Producer prices (annual) -0.2% y/y That isn’t a surprise with the jump being largely from a sharp increase in prices for almost all energy products. Mind you, the year-on-year figure was -3.3% in February. So, the lower natural gas and electricity prices in the preceding months

We moved back to more aggression in the Gulf over the weekend: Monday open FX (unlike the closed Strait of Hormuz). Indicative rates 20 April 2026. Early FX indicated the USD higher and therefore risk off. As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres

Trump has tweeted that US Marines have boarded an Iranian ship. Trump sent the message ut on his own social media app, driving views and revenue. US CENTCOM have not confirmed this action by Marines. Iran has denied it. But Trump has confirmed it, leaving little doubt. Earlier: Trump tweeted that Iran violated the ceasefire:

It is reported that Pakistan has intensified its diplomatic contacts since Sunday so as to try and get the US and Iran to sit down for talks “as soon as Tuesday”. In case you missed the headlines over the weekend, US president Trump said that he was still optimistic about a deal. And that is

Here is a look at the companies reporting this week, with a particular focus on the macro. It’s all likely to be overshadowed by the Middle East but hopefully the war ends and we can get back to earnings fundamentals. Monday, April 20 After close: Steel Dynamics, Alaska Air Quiet start to the week. STLD

The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has historically been China’s main benchmark lending rate, introduced in its current form in August 2019 as part of broader interest rate reform. It is set monthly based on submissions from a panel of commercial banks and is intended to reflect the actual borrowing costs faced by the real economy,

The report says that the BOJ is likely to hold off from raising interest rates in April next week, as heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict continues to put policymakers off from wanting to rush a decision. The sources claim that the central bank is leaning towards keeping policy unchanged in order to size

UAE held talks with the US on a potential financial backstop as war disrupts oil exports and dollar flows, with officials even raising yuan use in a stress scenario, signalling rising financial risks in the Gulf. Summary: UAE exploring US financial backstop amid war risks Currency swap line discussed but not formally requested Oil export

Summary: South Korea’s Lee visits India for first time in eight years Target to double trade to $50bn by 2030 Focus on shipbuilding, AI, finance, defence cooperation Supply chain risks driving closer ties Korea seeks more naphtha from India Trade imbalance remains a key issue South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is set to meet

Iran’s top joint military command: U.S. violated ceasefire by firing at one of Iran’s commercial ships Iran will soon respond and retaliate against this ‘Maritime and armed robbery’ by U.S. military CopyReferring to: Trump reveals classified Iran war information, again. US Marines’ location tweeted out. Coming up: Oil and equity index futures open at the

The highlight for Monday will be Canada’s CPI release. This will be followed by New Zealand’s inflation data on Tuesday, which will be a busy day. The U.K. will publish the claimant count change, average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate while the U.S. will get the ADP employment change, retail sales m/m and

Posting some of the majors, use our app to check markets you are interested in. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Coming up: PBoC rate setting (doesn’t matter) — The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under

The brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz barely lasted a day. That before Iran’s military decided to shut down passage of the waterway again as Tehran is dissatisfied with the continued US naval blockade. After that, US president Trump said that he was still optimistic that a deal could get done but not before

US proposals have been ‘unserious’, and its demands ‘unrealistic’ Tehran has clearly stated its demands and will not change them We do not believe in deadlines or ultimatums when it comes to safeguarding national interests Tehran is definitely being quite vocal about the situation here to start the new week. Adding to this is that

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar extended the losses on Friday following a barrage of positive news on the US-Iran front that seemed to point to an imminent deal after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The greenback eventually erased the losses heading into the weekend after Trump said that the US

Differences over nuclear programme remain unresolved The gaps have not narrowed Continuation of US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz undermines efforts for peace talks At the same time, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson is also out in saying that “there is no plan for a second round of negotiations with the US for now”. Well,

Progress seen but core issues divide US and Iran India and South Korea target $50bn trade as both seek deeper economic ties Carney says Canada must reduce US reliance as tariffs reshape trade outlook Some, not all, of the Monday morning gaps are filling. Oil, no. Equites, NO. FX, some. PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices plunged on Friday following a barrage of positive news. It all started with an Axios report saying that under a compromise proposal under discussion, some of the highly Iran’s enriched uranium would be shipped to a third country, not necessarily the US, and some of it would be down-blended in Iran

New Zealand monthly trade suprlus for March 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US-Iran gaps are said to have narrowed, but disputes over nuclear limits, uranium stockpiles, Hormuz access and sanctions relief remain unresolved, keeping prospects for a deal uncertain and risks to energy markets elevated. Summary: Pakistan sources say US-Iran gaps narrowing Nuclear programme remains core disagreement US wants uranium custody; Iran rejects Hormuz blockade vs restrictions

Earlier: PBOC leaves loan prime rates unchanged, as expected. – The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The one-year LPR serves as the primary benchmark for most lending in China, particularly corporate loans, short-term business financing, and some consumer credit. It effectively acts as the core pricing reference for credit in the real economy and is the key rate to watch when policymakers aim to support growth. By contrast, the five-year LPR

Summary: US seizes Iranian cargo ship attempting to breach blockade Iran threatens retaliation, labels move “armed piracy” Tehran rejects second round of peace talks Pakistan mediation efforts continue but outlook weak Hormuz transit remains unstable despite brief reopening Oil rebounds sharply as disruption risk persists Earlier: US futures, Globex, open for the new week’s trade.

Iran says Hormuz security isn’t free while exports are restricted, as UAE warns 600m barrels blocked and rejects “protection racket” claims, highlighting deepening divide over oil access and rising global cost risks. Summary: Iran ties Hormuz security to ability to export oil freely Warns global costs will rise without equal market access UAE says ~600m

Canada PM Carney said US ties are now a weakness as tariffs rise, signalling a push to diversify trade and investment amid growing economic uncertainty and tensions with Washington. Summary: Carney says US ties now a “weakness,” not strength Points to surge in US tariffs and protectionism Canada to diversify trade and attract new investment

Sen. Tillis blocks Trump’s Fed nominee Warsh until a DOJ probe into Powell concludes, creating a Senate deadlock and raising concerns over Fed independence as leadership uncertainty builds. Wall Street Journal (gated) with the info so far. Summary: Tillis blocking Fed nominee Warsh until Powell probe ends Creates effective deadlock in Senate Banking Committee Trump

Welcome to another fog of war week. The current situation has taken a tilt for the worse after the optimism of late last week. Weekend: Iran says that Strait of Hormuz is closed once again, situation returns to previous state Trump tells reporter he still thinks he can get a deal with Iran, says “it

Mon: BoC SCE (Apr), Chinese LPR (Apr), German PPI (Mar), Canadian Inflation (Mar), New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (Q1), New Zealand Inflation (Q1) Tue: Eurogroup Foreign Affairs Council (Apr), UK Jobs (Feb), German/EZ ZEW Sentiment Index (Apr), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US Retail Sales (Mar), US Pending Home Sales (Mar), Warsh Senate Hearing Wed:

Once again, it’s been a crazy weekend for the US-Iran war as it looked (looks?) like the whole thing could fall apart. First, the opening of the Strait on Friday turned out to be a false start at best as Iran reversed it after the US refused to lift its blockade. Then, Iran fired on

Iran has come out with a statement that the US has failed to live up to their end of the bargain. And as such, the Iranian military has moved to “close” the Strait of Hormuz once again. Iran is claiming that the US “did not fulfill their obligations” as the naval blockade is still ongoing.

If war creates high inflation, weak labor market, could call for holding rates steady The longer Middle East war remains unresolved, inflation and job risks increase High inflation, weak job market would be challenging for Fed March headline PCE inflation likely to hit 3.5% year over year Possible energy price surge could have lasting inflation

Trump is out with an interview with CBS reiterating that the US will get Iran’s uranium. “Our people, together with the Iranians are going to work together to go get it. And then we’ll take it to the United States,” he said. However, Iran’s Parliamentary National Security Committee Spokesman tells Al Jazeera they will not

RBC expects global central banks to largely hold rates despite oil-driven inflation risks, with policymakers prioritising growth concerns, while the RBA remains an outlier with further tightening likely. Summary: RBC expects major central banks to hold rates despite oil-driven inflation risks Energy shock seen as dampening growth, reducing urgency to hike Fed, BoC, ECB, and

Axios reports that the US and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war. It details: One element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium. S&P 500 futures are up 40 points, roughly doubling

This is the headline we’ve been looking for for seven weeks. On twitter, Araghchi writes: In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of

Shares of Netflix were trading at $108.03 at the close and are quickly down 8% on the release at $98.70. The company beat on pretty much every Q1 line that matters so it wasn’t about quarterly metrics. Revenue $12.25B vs. $12.18B consensus. EPS $1.23 vs. $0.76 — but the EPS beat is almost entirely the

The S&P 500 is at the highs of the day, up 1.45%, or 102 points to 7143. That’s a record high as well and more than a 10% gain from the March 30 low. It’s been an incredible rally and the latest leg higher came after Trump told AFP that there are no sticking points

Trump posts on Truth Social: IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU! Oil has cratered on the announcement from Iran’s foreign minister: That’s a big head and shoulders pattern. The market has been sniffing out a TACO since the start of the month

It’s been that kind of week in European trading, where markets are left in a bit of a bind but keeping the steady optimism for the most part. US-Iran developments continue to be the key thing to watch out for and market players are hanging on to hope that there will be some good news

Trump spoke with Axios and said: “The Iranians want to meet. They want to make a deal. I think a meeting will probably take place over the weekend. I think we will get a deal in the next day or two.” It sounds like all the details have been worked out and Trump’s talk about

Absence of immigration really matters, as does investment in technologies Right now making up low labor force growth by higher productivity growth Zero job growth might be new steady state Heading toward zero labor force growth based on demographics Outlook depends on how long rise in oil prices, how long conflict will persist Those are

Prior was 250.9K Single-detached homes- 4% m/m Multiple starts -3% m/m Seasonally adjusted starts -3% “March housing starts data point to a continued loss of momentum in housing construction, broadly in line with CMHC’s housing market outlook. While actual starts increased compared to a year ago, this largely reflects the exceptionally low level of construction

Another message from Trump on Truth Social and another big indication that a peace deal is coming: The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear “Dust,” created by our great B2 Bombers – No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form. This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA

Full speech here In her speech, Sarah Breeden, the Bank of England’s Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, assesses the current state of the global financial system against a backdrop of significant geopolitical and economic shocks. She begins by acknowledging that while the system has shown remarkable resilience over the last six years, weathering a pandemic,

On possible release of more emergency oil reserves, “we are not there yet” However, it is definitely under consideration We should prepare ourselves for volatile markets for some time If Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy prices We estimate it will take approximately two years for overall oil

It is vital to be careful about over-responding to high-frequency data, which contrasts with the perspective of financial markets I am of the opinion that inflation expectations have not lost their anchor The outlook for inflation seems less bleak than in 2022, largely due to increased slack in the labor market Maintaining focus on the

Trump is out with another message: THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN

IEA warns Europe may have just six weeks of jet fuel left as Hormuz disruptions hit supply, raising risks of higher inflation, flight cuts and a global economic slowdown. Summary: IEA warns Europe may have ~6 weeks of jet fuel left if Hormuz disruption persists Energy shock seen as “largest ever,” with global inflation and

Headlines: Oil prices remain under pressure amid US-Iran deal optimism. What’s next? Markets keep with the more optimistic view in the final stretch of the week Gold struggles to gain steam amid US-Iran optimism as neutral Fed caps momentum IEA chief Birol says release of more emergency oil reserves is under consideration How have interest

China signals loose policy, boosts fiscal and tech investment push ICYMI: IEA warns Europe may have ~6 weeks of jet fuel India ICYMI: RBI FX intervention intensifies, curbs refiners’ dollar buying NZ PM Luxon rejects leadership challenge as political pressure builds – watch the kiwi PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8622

ECRI argues a synchronised global inflation upturn is underway beyond oil effects, with pressures broadening across major economies and posing a challenge for central banks. Summary: ECRI says global inflation cycle is turning higher beyond oil-driven effects Current inflation impulse predates the escalation in geopolitical tensions Current inflation impulse also reflects deeper cyclical forces tied

Even as the dollar has had its troubles in the past two weeks, USD/JPY continues to stay underpinned with the yen currency itself also unable to get off the floor. As the US-Iran conflict drags on and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Japan remains one of the biggest losers in all of this. That

There are reports that a source close to Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Tehran plans to begin “initial steps” toward blocking the Bab al-Mandab Strait from midday tomorrow, though the claim remains unverified This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trade balance in the euro area already recorded a deficit of €1.0 billion (revised) in January, but at least returned to a surplus in February with an estimate of €11.5 billion. This improvement was primarily driven by the machinery and vehicles sector, where the surplus rose from €1.5 bn in January 2026 to €10.2 bn

China signalled continued policy support, with the PBOC maintaining a loose stance and officials accelerating fiscal spending and investment in tech and energy to support growth amid global risks. Summary: PBOC signals “appropriately loose” policy, prioritising consumption support China warns on global imbalances, protectionism, and policy spillovers NDRC rolls out large-scale fiscal and industrial support

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices have been pulling back since Monday as the positive US-Iran deal expectations kept weighing on the market. The second round of talks is expected to happen before the April 22 ceasefire deadline. Trump mentioned today that they might have a meeting this weekend. In the meantime, we got reports that US

G7 finance chiefs warned the Middle East war risks damaging growth and fuelling inflation, signalling readiness to act on energy shocks while accelerating efforts to diversify critical minerals supply chains. Summary: G7 flags urgent need to limit economic fallout from Middle East war Central banks ready to act to prevent energy shock feeding into core

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The bullish momentum in gold waned recently despite lots of tailwinds like lower real yields, looser financial conditions and lower US dollar. It’s certainly not been the same since the late January crash, and the major difference is that the Fed has pivoted away from the dovish stance. Nonetheless, gold should remain supported

Singapore NODX rose 15.3% y/y in March, beating forecasts, as AI-driven electronics exports surged, though non-electronics remained weak and MAS warned of downside risks from global conditions. Summary: Singapore NODX +15.3% y/y in March vs +9.4% expected (Reuters poll) Electronics exports surge +74% y/y, driven by AI demand Non-electronics still weak (-0.6% y/y), highlighting uneven

The data from New Zealand is all that is on the calendar. These are unlikely to move the kiwi too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

more to come Trump is speaking at an event in LasVegas. Feedng the chooks. – Earlier: Iran stresses need for full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon Unverified reports Tehran plans to begin “initial steps” toward Bab al-Mandab block This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan finance ministry official: No comment when asked whether delay in BoJ rate hikes could trigger sharp yen falls It’s clear from data many currencies are weakening vs dollar, not just yen This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% on March 18 by an 11–1 vote. The decision was expected, but the message shook Wall Street: the Dow plunged more than 750 points after Chair Jerome Powell admitted the Fed had “not made as much progress on inflation as hoped” and called the economic

NZ food prices fell 0.6% m/m (prev -0.1%) while retail card spending rose 0.7% (prev 1.4%), showing easing inflation and slowing demand, reinforcing expectations the RBNZ will hold rates steady. Summary: NZ food prices -0.6% m/m (prev -0.1%), annual pace 3.4% – Stats NZ Core retail card spending +0.7% m/m (prev +1.4%), signalling slower momentum

Summary: G20 sees Middle East conflict as key driver of global economic outlook – Ueda Japan flags oil-driven deterioration in terms of trade and growth drag Supply shock complicates policy, with inflation and growth effects pulling in opposite directions BoJ maintains highly accommodative stance, keeps data-dependent approach G7 sees limited direct damage but highlights need

The U.S. is warning European allies of likely weapons delivery delays as the Iran war strains already stretched defence stockpiles, with competing demands from Ukraine, Israel, and Gulf missile defence adding pressure. Summary: U.S. likely to delay some weapons deliveries to European allies due to Iran war demand – Reuters Affected countries include Baltic states

Trump announces Isreal and Lebanon ceasefire Trump says Iran meeting could be on weekend; Netanyahu confirms Lebanon ceasefire US initial jobless claims 207K vs 215K expected US April Philly Fed business index +26.7 vs +10.0 expected Gulf and European officials expect the US to take six months for an Iran deal Fed’s Miran: I would

The latest from Trump: Trump is happy with stock markets bouncing back. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

This the latest, Iranian media citing Foreign Ministry spokesperson: Iran stresses need for full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon Iran welcomes ceasefire in Lebanon, saying it was part of Iran-U.S. ceasefire understanding mediated by Pakistan That first demand sounds like to might be sticking point. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran’s agreed they won’t have a nuclear weapon If there’s no deal with Iran, fighting will resume We have a lot of agreement with Iran Iran has agreed to give us back the nuclear dust Next meeting with Iran may take place over the weekend US blockade of Hormuz is holding up well I think

At this moment, it is not appropriate for the Fed to provide specific forward guidance Monetary policy is currently situated in the correct position Inflation figures will stay “significantly higher” than 3% during the coming months The economic consequences will grow more severe the longer the conflict continues Markets are currently weighing a robust U.S.

I don’t love the price action in oil at the moment. For one, it highlights the lingering risks around a peace deal in Iran. The market briefly shuddered on a report that said it could take six months to do the deal. Now presumably the broad contours are agreed before then and the Strait of

Proprietary trading firms have become a notable funding path for experienced crypto traders looking to operate beyond their personal capital. Rather than risking personal savings, traders can access firm capital after passing structured evaluations, sharing profits in return. But the growing number of programs on the market makes it harder to separate serious platforms from

No hard evidence yet of second-round inflation effects It may be difficult to conclude by April meeting if a rate hike is needed Leaving things to the June meeting offers us more data However, a rate move at the April meeting still cannot be ruled out As things stand, traders are only pricing in a

Headlines: Markets continue to keep the faith awaiting more positive US-Iran developments After 5 months, the Nasdaq finally hits a new record high amid US-Iran deal optimism Netflix earnings is tonight. Are you holding? Senior Iranian Official: Fundamental disagreements continue over nuclear issues ECB policymaker Muller: A rate move at the April meeting cannot be

A newswire report is just out talking about a six month timeline for an Iran deal, citing Gulf and European officials. It’s worth highlighting that the original JCPOA took two years to negotiate. The nightmare strategy here is that the Strait stays closed during negotiations or that risks are so high that tankers won’t take

This isn’t a big surprise given the leaks all week but it’s still progress and a great signal that the US and Iran are on track: I just had excellent conversations with the Highly Respected President Joseph Aoun, of Lebanon, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel. These two Leaders have agreed that in order

Every meeting is a live meeting; a lot can happen until April 30 ECB policy meeting Market pricing of two rate hikes this year is reasonable Energy price developments are not far from baseline but moves volatile, uncertain Have not seen large second-round inflation impacts materialise Firms may start adjusting prices quicker than in the

Sector Overview The latest stock market snapshot reveals a mixed landscape across sectors, with energy stocks soaring while tech giants experience a downturn. The energy sector, represented by notable figures such as ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), witnessed gains of 1.23% and 1.26%, respectively, reflecting a strong drive in oil and gas prices. In contrast,

If you’ve been using AI lately, you know the discourse. It’s been a frustrating few weeks for the power users and there’s a growing chorus on Reddit and X that the latest updates from Google and Anthropic have been “nerfed”—shaved down at the edges, made more cautious, and frankly, a bit dumber in the name

Iran has proposed allowing ships safe passage via the Omani side of Hormuz as part of US talks, signalling potential easing of disruptions, though flows remain far below pre-war levels. Summary: Iran has reportedly proposed allowing ships to transit the Omani side of Hormuz without attack. The proposal is conditional on progress in negotiations with

Prior was 219K (revised to 218K) 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 209.75K versus 209.5K last week Continuing claims 1818K vs 1810K expected Prior week 1794K (revised to 1787K) This is a good reading and while the Iran war was going on there have been a series of upbeat readings on the economy.

There was a report from Iranian media two days ago that a ceasefire was hours away and that turned out to be not true. Note that this one is from Haaretz, which is a daily Israeli newspaper. It says that the Israeli army is preparing to halt combat operations between 7 pm and midnight local

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been on the backfoot since Monday as the positive US-Iran deal expectations kept weighing on the greenback. The second round of negotiations were expected to begin today but we never had an official date. They are expected to happen before the April 22 ceasefire deadline though. In the

The energy supply shock has had a large impact on near-term inflation compensation in the euro area Longer-term inflation compensation had remained broadly stable Despite strong increases in spot prices for oil and gas, it was argued that energy markets could still be seen as rather sanguine about the situation The strong backwardation of futures

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. As things stand, markets are continuing to feel more optimistic about the US-Iran situation. And with lower oil prices (at least on paper), that is helping to spread some relief across other asset classes. In particular, US

Prior +1.9% Core CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% No surprises there as euro area inflation is seen picking up in March as a result of surging energy prices. The US-Iran conflict is the main issue impacting the inflation outlook now and will continue to be the case for the months ahead. The

Pakistani army chief trip to Iran helped reduce differences in some areas After the trip, there are greater hopes for extending the ceasefire and holding a second round of talks Fundamental disagreements continue over nuclear issues The fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium and the duration of its nuclear restrictions remain unresolved Following a high-level

Conflict in the Middle East is already pushing inflation higher Despite ongoing challenges, monetary policy remains “well positioned” Economic prospects are deeply uncertain due to the impact of war New signs of disruptions in supply chains are beginning to emerge Portions of the energy shock are now filtering into broader prices A rapid resolution to

Poor data re the property sector from China once again. China’s stats people say: In March 2026, home prices in Tier-1 cities rose m/m, declines in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities narrowed or stabilized more cities saw m/m gains in both new and existing home prices the number of cities seeing month-on-month increases in both new

Miran is a joke and is only there to take orders from the White House but even he can’t ignore the oil shock and its impact on inflation. So he says he would now pencil in 3 cuts this year compared to 4 previously. That’s a sign of which way the wind is blowing and

Prior was +0.2% (revised to +0.7%) Manufacturing output -0.1% vs +0.1% exp Prior manufacturing output +0.2% (revised to +0.4%) Capacity utilization 75.7% vs 76.3% prior The revisions essentially sterilize the miss here. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been on the backfoot since Monday as the positive US-Iran deal expectations kept weighing on the greenback. The second round of negotiations were expected to begin today but we never had an official date. They are expected to happen before the April 22 ceasefire deadline though. In the

Bitcoin price prediction: Maybe something like this (watch $80k area on bitcoin futures) Bitcoin Price Analysis on the Above 4h Chart: The Path to $80,000 The current technical setup suggests Bitcoin is entering a “price discovery” phase within its established ascending corridor. While the trend remains bullish, the $80,000 level represents more than just a

Trump posts upbeat comments on Israel -Lebanon peace talks -“Nice!” Today’s FX winner is Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, She’s sent the yen higher. ICYMI – Reports that Iran proposes partial Hormuz reopening for ships via Oman waters Fox says its confirmed that Iran used Chinese satellite to target US bases Japan’s Katayama says closely watching

Prior was +18.1 Details: New orders 33.0 vs 8.6 prior Shipments 34.0 vs 22.2 prior Unfilled orders -10.2 vs -4.7 prior Delivery times 1.7 vs 18.9 prior Inventories -1.9 vs 1.4 prior Prices paid 59.3 vs 44.7 prior Prices received 33.5 vs 21.2 prior Number of employees -5.1 vs 0.8 prior Average employee workweek 7.7

PBOC injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4$, unchanged. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Netflix earnings analysis: a simple risk check many stock investors overlook NFLX stock went up a staggeting 44% in the last 36 trading days. That’s quite a fast and big move. If you were a bit greedy when others were fearful AND were following investingLive.com’s original items, then you may have bought the dip apx

Trump pumping talks between Israel and Lebanon, adding to positive sentiment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Focus on April hike is premature The ECB would have no hesitation to act if and when necessary There’s no rush to act at the moment There’s no predetermined rate path The ECB will need critical mass of data before acting Our vigilance is first and foremost on the risk of persistent inflation Underlying inflation

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq surged into a new all-time high amid US-Iran deal optimism. The US-Iran war has been pushing the market lower on negative growth expectations and as those expectations now get repriced on the positive side, the stock market has room to run. The playbook is very similar to April 2025. The second

Summary: Reports (FT, echoed by Reuters/Fox) say Iran used a Chinese satellite to monitor US bases. The IRGC allegedly gained access to the satellite after launch and used it for targeting support. Satellite imagery was reportedly used before and after strikes on US-linked sites. The development suggests a significant upgrade in Iran’s ISR (intelligence, surveillance,

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama has been verbally intervening today: Not once, but twice: Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said to intensify communication with Bessent Dropping in the B word in is more forceful verbal intervention Japan’s Katayama says closely watching FX as oil volatility hits yen This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fed’s Musalem said oil prices from the Iran war could keep core inflation near 3% this year, likely forcing the Fed to hold rates for longer as supply shocks lift costs and growth slows. Summary: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said high oil prices are likely to keep core inflation near 3% this year,

Iran’s leadership has hardened after the war, with hardliners gaining control and reducing prospects for peace, while disruption to the Strait of Hormuz adds to global energy and geopolitical risks. Summary: Iran’s leadership has hardened following the war, with more radical figures consolidating power. The emergence of Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC-linked figures has reduced prospects

It’s wild to see how markets are running with this much optimism when we haven’t seen any actual progress yet on the Middle East conflict. The fact of the matter remains that the Strait of Hormuz is in de facto closure and set to enter its eighth straight week under such circumstances. Yet, oil prices

The revised call comes as we are also starting to see ECB policymakers preach more patience rather than taking a more proactive step come later this month. Goldman Sachs had previously forecast the ECB to raise key interest rates in April and June but have now pushed back that timeline by just a little bit.

It has been that kind of the week in European trading for the most part. The action is rather minimal as traders continue to wait on US-Iran headlines, especially with much resting on the next round of talks. US president Trump offered up much optimism at the start of the week and that helped to

Since the December meeting, financial market situation has been characterised by elevated volatility Middle East conflict has resulted in surge in energy prices, which led to a global rise in inflation expectations With the appreciation of the Swiss franc since December, monetary conditions are tighter However, monetary policy remains expansionary The board discussed the various

Schnabel signalled the ECB has room to stay patient after the Iran shock, arguing inflation is back at target and policy is neutral, allowing officials to wait for evidence of any lasting second-round effects. Summary: ECB’s Isabel Schnabel said the euro zone is in a relatively favourable position because inflation had already been brought back

Prior +1.5% HICP +1.6% vs +1.5% y/y prelim Prior +1.5% The jump in Italy’s headline inflation is not as profound as elsewhere in the region. However, it still reflects the same characteristics with energy price inflation spiking higher. Energy price inflation was down by 6.6% year-on-year in February but now reflect a 2.3% decline only

Australia employment rose 17.9k in March (exp 20k) with unemployment steady at 4.3%, underscoring labour market resilience and giving the RBA room to keep tightening as inflation risks remain elevated. Summary: Australia employment rose +17.9k in March (exp +20k; prior +49.6k revised). Unemployment rate held at 4.3% (exp 4.3%; prior 4.3%). Full-time jobs surged +52.5k,

China will issue 15.5bn yuan ($2.3bn) in offshore bonds in Hong Kong on April 22, marking its largest CNH sale since October 2023 and supporting yuan liquidity amid global market volatility. Summary: China will issue 15.5 billion yuan ($2.3 billion) in sovereign bonds in Hong Kong on April 22. This is the largest offshore yuan

Goldman Sachs’ FICC revenue fell 10% as Iran war-driven volatility hit its rates desk, with losses on positions held during market swings, while rivals posted strong gains from heightened trading activity. Summary: Goldman Sachs’ FICC revenue fell 10% in Q1, underperforming peers amid Iran war-driven volatility. Losses were concentrated in the rates business, where sharp

Prior 0.0%; revised to +0.1% GDP +1.0% vs +0.6% y/y expected Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.7% Services +0.5% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior 0.0%; revised to +0.1% Industrial output +0.5% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior -0.1% Manufacturing output -0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected Prior +0.1%; revised to +0.2% Construction output +1.0% vs 0.0% m/m expected

Japan finmin Katayama: Regarding exchange rates, agreed to further intensify communication with US Treasury Secretary Bessent Katayama is visiting Washington, DC for the annual IMF meetings. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

IMF says the BOJ can look through Iran war-driven inflation, with limited second-round effects, allowing gradual rate hikes to continue as inflation still converges to the 2% target by 2027. Summary: The IMF said the Bank of Japan can “see through” inflation pressures from the Iran war, with limited second-round effects expected. IMF mission chief

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

China Q1 GDP rose 5.0% y/y (exp 4.8%), beating forecasts, but officials warned the external outlook is becoming more complex as the Iran war-driven oil shock raises risks for growth. Summary: China Q1 GDP rose 5.0% y/y (exp 4.8%; prior 4.5%), beating expectations. Quarterly growth came in at 1.3% q/q (exp 1.3%; prior 1.2%). The

Australian March 2026 jobs data. I’ll have more to come on this separately, details and implications. … Added: Australia jobs resilience, unemployment rate steady, keeps RBA focused on inflation risks Preview here: Australian jobs data preview: Labour data to miss Iran impact, slowdown seen later This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ECB officials are leaning toward holding rates in April, opting to wait for clearer evidence on the Iran war’s impact, even as markets continue to price further rate hikes later this year, Bloomberg reports. Earlier: ECB’s Schnabel says bank can take time to assess Iran shock Summary: ECB policymakers are leaning toward holding rates at

I posted a preview of the Australian jobs report here: For the Reserve Bank: despite a softening labour outlook, inflation risks tied to the energy shock remain the dominant concern. As a result, upcoming labour data is unlikely to materially shift near-term policy expectations. China’s first-quarter GDP is expected to show a modest pickup in

Japan’s Katayama said authorities are closely watching FX and in dialogue with the US, warning oil-driven volatility is impacting the yen and economy, keeping intervention risk in focus. Earlier: Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said to intensify communication with Bessent Summary: Japan Finance Minister Katayama said authorities are closely watching FX moves and have communicated this

The Pentagon is in talks with US automakers and manufacturers to boost weapons production as conflicts in Ukraine and Iran deplete stockpiles, in a push to expand the defence industrial base, WSJ reports. Summary: The Pentagon is exploring partnerships with major US manufacturers, including automakers, to boost weapons production. Talks with companies like GM and

China industrial output beat forecasts in March, but retail sales missed and property investment stayed weak, highlighting a fragile recovery as the Iran war adds to growth risks. Earlier: China Q1 GDP beats forecasts but Iran war risks loom China March new home prices -3.4% y/y (February -3.2%) Summary: China industrial production rose 5.7% y/y

Summary: The White House is urging major US oil companies to ramp up production to ease surging fuel prices. Top executives from Exxon, Chevron and others are set to join a high-level call with Energy and Interior officials. The push comes as the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruption drive oil above $100 and tighten supply.

The market is increasingly looking beyond the war in Iran and that makes it a good time to look to future fundamentals. An interesting spot to watch this year is USD/CAD as USMCA negotiations will be front and center shortly. The way that Trump handled the war is a reminder of his negotiating strategy, which

Fed’s Beige Book: Overall activity showed slight to modest growth in 8 of 12 districts ECB sources report: Policymakers wary of April rate hike Japan’s Katayama said she spoke with Bessent about currencies US and Iran said to be weighing two-week ceasefire extension US EIA weekly crude oil inventories -913K vs +154K expected US NAHB

Slight to modest growth in 8 of 12 districts Two districts with little change Two districts with modest declines The April Beige Book landed with a thud. Eight of twelve districts managed slight-to-modest growth, but two were flat and two — Boston and New York — actually contracted. That’s not a recession signal, but it’s

The S&P 500 is trading up 34 points to 7001, edging above the previous record set January 28. That’s an impressive gain in just 11 trading days since the March 30 low. It begs the question: Was there a tell at the bottom. In terms of fundamentals, if we go back to the start of

Prior was 38 Single family 37 vs 42 prior Prospective buyers 22 vs 25 prior Sales expectations 42 vs 49 prior The US housing industry is in a deep recession and rising rates following the Iran war aren’t going to help. If there’s any good news it’s that borrowing costs have ticked down since the

Westpac sees little immediate labour market impact from the Iran war, but expects a delayed slowdown as energy shocks filter through. Summary: March labour data unlikely to reflect Iran war impact yet Westpac sees unemployment dipping to 4.2% short-term Labour market to weaken later as oil shock feeds through RBA still focused on inflation, not

High energy could bring inflation but could also weigh on growth Rates are in a good place, baseline is staying on hold for while Risks go in both ways for monetary policy The job market is reasonably in balance Fed has been missing inflation target for five years Consumers have been facing extended period of

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Predicts that oil prices will drop back to or below previous levels China has not responded to the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz If Iran doesn’t agree to give up nuclear weapons, there will be no deal Iran will not have nuclear weapons The headline comment is pretty much a rehash of what he

I hope that Warsh gets confirmed next week If Powell doesn’t leave, I have to fire him We have to find out what happened on probe of Powell, need to show the incompetence Thinks that interest rates will go lower when Warsh gets in as Fed chair It’s no surprise there but does he really

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been surging like crazy as traders kept on unwinding the bearish war-led bets amid US-Iran deal optimism. The US-Iran war has been pushing the market lower on negative growth expectations and as those expectations now get repriced on the positive side, the S&P 500 has lots of room to

Trump speaking with ABC news in the US: said that he isn’t thinking about extending the ceasefire adding that he doesn’t think it will be necessary. “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead. I really do,” Oil as remained heavy and shares supported through the session here. This article was

Credit Agricole argues that markets are currently riding a wave of optimism all thanks to US president Trump giving hope that a peace deal looks to be on the cards. However, the firm doesn’t quite see things panning out that way with the US and Iran still unable to come to terms on “a number

Prior was -0.2 New orders +19.3 vs +6.4 prior Prices paid +51.0 vs +36.6 prior Employment +9.8 vs +5.8 prior Separately, the US was out with import/export price data: Import prices +0.8% vs +2.0% exp Export prices +1.6% vs +1.5% exp Those numbers align with PPI data released earlier this week that were surprisingly benign.

Al Mayadeen cites a senior “Iranian political-security source” who says that a ceasefire in Lebanon will be approved tonight. The source also says it’s “possible” that Netanyahu may move to undermine it. The ceasefire is said to be for one week but will extend with the Iran-US ceasefire, which was reported by the Associated Press

With news of a two-week truce, crude oil price has slipped below $100 a barrel. Even though the Strait of Hormuz has not reopened yet and despite U.S. threats to block Iranian tankers and those of its supporters, markets still seem to be holding out hope that this conflict might be winding down. What could

At the same time, they are also threatening to disrupt all commercial shipping in the Red Sea if the blockade continues. In case you missed it, the US military had earlier in the day announce that it has now “fully implemented” a naval blockade on all Iranian ports. This even led to some murmurs about

Prior was +3081K Gasoline -6328K vs -2077K expected Distillates -3122K vs -2437K expected The oil market has bigger things to worry about than this but there are around 100 VLCC’s heading to the US Gulf, so there is going to be a very large call on US oil supplies in the next few weeks. WTI

Via oilprice.com Expectations I had seen centred on: Crude -1.3mln Distillate -2.5mln Gasoline -2.2mln This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite different.The official government data

The US stock market is buzzing with activity today as the tech sector shows significant strength. With giants like Microsoft and Broadcom posting impressive gains, the market landscape is increasingly optimistic for technology-based investments. Let’s delve into the details of today’s financial dynamics and what they could mean for savvy investors. 📊 Sector Overview Technology

Prior +0.9% HICP +2.0% vs +1.9% y/y prelim Prior +1.1% On the month itself, headline inflation rose by 1.0% and that is largely tied to a surge in energy prices (+8.9%). That’s no surprise given the impact of the US-Iran conflict, which has seen European gas prices skyrocket last month. Of note, prices for petroleum

It is reported that Iran will be seeking alternative means to get shipments in/out of the country amid the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz currently. These alternative ports are said to be located in the southern region of Iran. No specific names are being mentioned as to which ports these may be though.

As a reminder, Japan had previously release around 50 days’ worth of oil from its reserves already in March. So, this 36 million barrels will roughly equate to another 20 days’ worth of its oil reserves. The details of the plan is expected to be finalised by the end of April with the action to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold extended the gains into new highs since the negative Monday open as the risk sentiment turned around following several positive news and reports that increased the probabilities of a peace deal between US and Iran. The second round of negotiations are expected to start tomorrow. Trump delivered some upbeat remarks tonight mentioning

Trading currencies while traveling the world used to be either a fantasy or a cautionary tale (mostly the latter) for the better half of the last decade. But something seems to have shifted, and the data makes a solid case that the digital nomad trader, once a punchline, has become a real and growing part

Full report here The US is increasing its military presence in the Middle East as the two-week ceasefire approaches the April 22 deadline. The Pentagon is deploying approximately 10,000 additional personnel, including 6,000 troops aboard the USS George H.W. Bush and 4,200 with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit. This

Full report here AP News is reporting that mediators are working to extend the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran before it expires next week on April 22. Despite a US naval blockade and renewed threats from Tehran, regional officials report that both nations have reached an agreement in principle to continue diplomatic efforts.

Headlines: Markets keep the calm awaiting a potential US-Iran deal Gold remains supported amid US-Iran deal optimism as real yields extend the drop US president Trump: I think the war with Iran can be over very soon Trump says he thinks extending the ceasefire will not be necessary Mediators move closer to extending US-Iran ceasefire

Prior was -3.0% (revised to -3.1%) Wholesale sales vs +2.0% vs +2.3% expected Prior wholesale -1.0% (revised to -1.1%) The Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (MSM), conducted by Statistics Canada, is a key indicator of the health of Canada’s industrial sector. The survey covers approximately 6,500 manufacturing establishments classified under the North American Industry Classification System

Prior -1.5%; revised to -0.8% Euro area factory output nudged up more than estimated just before the start of the US-Iran conflict, and that is despite a more positive revision to the January figure as well. Amid higher energy prices and surging input cost inflation, expect conditions to change up more dramatically in the months

Former Fed Chair Yellen sees one Fed cut possible as Iran-driven inflation clouds outlook. Iran clears missile base tunnels during ceasefire, signalling rearmament risk Heads up for NZD and CHF traders, RBNZ Gov Breman and SNB Chair Schlegel to speak Much chatter that Iran talks to resume as ceasefire extension discussed PBOC sets USD/ CNY

One of the big risks to a ceasefire in the Middle East is that Israel refuses to stop operations in Lebanon or that Iran makes a total ceasefire there a definite condition of any deal. My guess is that we wouldn’t have gotten this far down the road if there weren’t some positive indications. The

Footage from Trump’s Fox interveiw to air Wednesday morning US time, his remarks are that he had intervene, and if he hadn’t done so, Iran would now possess a nuclear weapon. And: “I view it as very close to over. If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild

Summary: Reopening Hormuz is necessary but not sufficient to fix oil supply Market split: shipping flows vs actual production shut-ins Over 500mn barrels potentially lost due to halted output Restarting production likely delayed weeks to months Near-term optimism tempered by persistent structural supply tightness The oil market may be underestimating the depth of the current

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar extended the losses yesterday as the unwinding of the war-led positions on positive US-Iran deal expectations kept weighing on the greenback. The second round of negotiations are expected to start tomorrow. Trump delivered some upbeat remarks tonight mentioning that we’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead.

There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 and 1.1800 levels. The fact of the matter is that markets are looking to turn the page on the US-Iran conflict. And that means running with the optimism so far

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Iran is rebuilding access to underground missile bases during the ceasefire, highlighting the temporary nature of the pause and the risk of renewed conflict. Summary: Iran clearing debris from underground missile bases during ceasefire US–Israel strikes targeted tunnel entrances to disable launchers Around half of Iran’s missile launchers assessed still intact “Missile cities” designed to

Yellen sees one Fed rate cut still possible this year, despite inflation risks from the Iran war shifting market expectations away from easing. Summary: Janet Yellen sees one Fed cut still possible this year Iran war driving broad supply shock, lifting inflation pressures Markets have priced out cuts despite earlier expectations Fed remains data-dependent with

tradeCompass Summary Map for today’s ETH futures day traders Bullish threshold: $2425Bearish threshold: $2230 ETH has clearly improved from the February low and the chart now shows a decent repair phase with higher lows and a healthier short-term trend. But price is also nearing an important upper band and prior reaction area. So the market

In her teaser video Maria Bartiromo says Trump told her the war is over. Which is what he’s been saying for weeks. “He said, its over.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary: Bessent signals tariffs could return to prior levels by July Treasury still sees strong US growth, potentially above 3–3.5% Policy stance framed as “de-risking,” not full China decoupling Tariff threat adds to global risks alongside ongoing Iran war Markets face rising stagflation and trade fragmentation concerns US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled that tariffs

Positive sentiment continues here in Asia with goose comments from Vance and Trump: Vance signals US–Iran progress, pushes ‘grand bargain’ as ceasefire holds Heads up for Trump interview. “He said, its over.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Blockade compliance and improved Hormuz flows support cautious optimism, as talks resume and ceasefire extension is discussed. Summary: US blockade of Iranian ports sees compliance, no interdictions in first 24h Tanker flows through Hormuz improving, with 20+ vessels transiting US–Iran talks likely to resume, per UN’s António Guterres Regional diplomacy ramps up with multiple foreign

Hope springs eternal. And so far this week, markets are running with the optimism that there will be something done when we get to the second round of US-Iran talks. The next round of negotiations are set to take on Thursday, with plenty of upbeat commentary ahead of it. US president Trump is the main

RBNZ Governor Breman and SNB Chair Schlegel will discuss how open economies navigate a shifting global landscape, focusing on trade fragmentation, capital flows, and inflation challenges amid rising geopolitical tensions and a more uncertain international financial environment. 15 April 2026, 1:00pm to 2:00pm US Eastern time (1700 – 1800 GMT) This article was written by

Vance signals progress in US–Iran talks and a potential “grand bargain,” but key gaps remain despite a holding ceasefire. Summary: Vance signals continued US–Iran negotiations, ceasefire holding ~7 days “Grand bargain” aims to integrate Iran into global economy Clear red line: Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons Talks progressing in Pakistan, but gaps remain Markets cautiously

Deutsche Bank turns bearish on the dollar, expecting EUR/USD to break 1.20 as Fed policy lags more hawkish ECB and BoE amid easing Iran risk and shifting energy dynamics. Summary: Deutsche Bank sees broad USD weakness, EUR/USD targeting a break above 1.20 Fed expected to stay on hold while ECB/BoE lean more hawkish Iran war

Trump: Iran talks ‘could be happening over next two days’ in Pakistan IMF lowers 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% vs 3.3% prior US March PPI final demand 4.0% y/y vs +4.7% expected Lebanon ambassador: The preliminary meeting with Israel was good Bessent: Trump hasn’t opted to raise 10% tariff to 15% “at this

Japan’s manufacturers see the sharpest confidence drop in three years as oil shocks and supply disruptions bite, while domestic sectors remain more resilient. Summary: apan manufacturers’ sentiment posts biggest drop in over three years Oil shock and supply disruptions from Iran war hit confidence Chemicals sector flips negative as input costs surge Non-manufacturers remain resilient

US stocks continue to make fresh daily highs and have erased the Iran war decline. It’s an impressive turnaround given that just three days ago, JD Vance was walking away from negotiations in Pakistan. The market quickly realized that was more of a stunt than a sign of the way that things are going. The

US Treasury’s Bessent backs “wait and see” on rates China exports miss, imports surge as trade surplus shrinks sharply Some China trade data dribbling out. Q1 trade data shows imports surge, exports stay firm HSBC warns peace deal needed to restore energy flows and curb inflation Australia business confidence plunges to -29 as Iran war

When US tariffs were struck down by a 6-3 decision in the Supreme Court, the President announced a 10% global tariff under a different authority immediately. This was done under Section 122, which has a 150-day limit and a cap of 15%. Initially the rate of 10% rather than 15% was framed as an administrative

Bloomberg reports: Iran is considering a short-term pause to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and scuppering a fresh round of peace talks They cited a person familiar with Iran’s deliberations. At this point, I don’t think we need a headline to tell us the state of play. The

It’s not impossible to see the Fed and ECB take different paths in the short term We are absolutely focused on delivering on inflation target If shocks take inflation off target but not persistently, we should be measured in our response How measured of a response is the question? Does that mean not moving rates

China exports miss sharply as imports surge, narrowing trade surplus. Summary: Exports +2.5% y/y (vs +8.6% expected) Imports +27.8% y/y (vs +11.2% expected) Trade surplus $51.1bn (vs $108.2bn expected) Yuan exports stronger due to FX effects Strong domestic demand, weaker external demand China’s March trade data showed a sharp divergence between imports and exports, with

The ECB needs to take a medium-term view Need to keep eyes on the medium term while checking data daily We have to be completely agile We have to be data dependent The captain won’t leave the ship with clouds on the horizon This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview The stock market today painted a green picture for the Technology sector, with notable performances from major tech giants driving market sentiment up. Microsoft (MSFT) grew by an impressive 2.11%, indicating continued investor confidence. In the semiconductor space, Nvidia (NVDA) leaping 1.88% and Micron (MU) soaring 3.06% highlights a bullish stance among investors,

The S&P 500 has completely retraced the Iran war move; the euro is back to pre-war levels; but gold isn’t. There may be an opportunity there. Gold has come to life during US trading today and is up 2% to $4831. That’s still $440 below pre-war levels, or about 9%. Silver is even stronger today,

WTI crude is down a little over 2% today to just below $97 now, effectively closing the Monday gap higher. This comes after some positive headlines yesterday, with reports of a second round of talks later this week. For the most part, markets seem to be taking their cue from what US president Trump has

The euro is back to where it was when the Iran war began. That’s a good sign for peace but also for resilience. The energy shock is a big hit for Europe but the market is pricing in a transitory effect. Notably, the IMF is out with its latest growth forecasts and sees GDP this

Nothing is authentic on the internet and you’re likely a target of stock-market boosting campaigns. Wired is out with an interesting article about a Brooklyn rock band called Geese that had a monster 2025. Their album Getting Killed landed on every year-end list that mattered. They booked Saturday Night Live. They sold out a fall

Yesterday, there was an Atlantic report that said talks were coming on Thursday, citing sources from Tehran. Now Trump says they’re more ‘inclined’ to go to Pakistan for Iran talks. There was a quick uptick in stocks on this and the S&P 500 is now at the highs of the day, up 0.8%. This article

The euro is one of the most-straightforward Iran war trades, albeit not one with the highest torque. The reasoning is simple: Much of the oil and the refined products shipped through the Strait of Hormuz ends up in Europe, fuelling autos and airplanes. The cut off of those supplies endangers the European economy more than

US March NFIB small business optimism index 95.8 vs 97.9 expected A tricky time for the oil market as the “smart money” has moved on Investors surveyed in early April were most bearish in 10 months – BofA ECB’s Rehn: Interest rate decisions are not locked in beforehand Three tankers were said to pass through

The report is from earlier today with it noting that there were three tankers that entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz on the first day of the US naval blockade. It is believed that the three vessels were not heading to Iranian ports, so they were not stopped by the blockade that was

Prior was 3.4% y/y PPI M/M +0.5% vs +1.1% expected Prior +0.7% Core PPI Core PPI Y/Y +3.8% vs +4.2% expected Prior +3.9% Core PPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.5% expected Prior Core PPI MoM +0.5%(revised to +0.3%) PPI Ex Foor/Energy/Trade YoY 3.6% vs 3.5% last month PPI Ex Food/Energy/Trader MoM +0.2% vs +0.5% last month

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The market mood has swung around since this same time yesterday, with optimism bouncing back after US president Trump talked up hopes for a deal with Iran. Adding to that is reports that we are likely to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar opened the week higher yesterday following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. The gains didn’t extend further though as the ceasefire remained intact and we got reports of US and Iran continuing to exchange messages through diplomatic backchannels. There were still risks of another escalation after Trump

IMF cuts 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% vs 3.3% in January on Middle East conflict United States 2026 growth trimmed to 2.3% vs 2.4% prior; 2027 ticks up to 2.1% vs 2.0% Euro area forecast slashed to 1.1% vs 1.3% in January as energy headwinds deepen India growth upgraded to 6.5% vs 6.4% prior

IEA flags readiness for further oil releases as war deepens supply shock. Summary: IEA signals readiness for further oil reserve releases Record 400m barrel release already deployed Additional supply could be mobilised if shock worsens War driving worst-ever global energy disruption Reserve releases seen as stabilisation, not solution The International Energy Agency has made clear

Its difficult not to read nefarious motives into comments from senior US officials given the stink of insider trading within the administration. Vance says progress made in Iran talks, sees path to broader deal But, leaving that aside for now, Vance has been a tailwind for risk. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

This via a Reuters piece. US-Iran talks end without deal but leave door open for further dialogue. Summary: US-Iran talks end without agreement Sides reportedly “close” before breakdown Key disputes: nuclear programme, Hormuz, sanctions Talks described as tense but ongoing Dialogue continues via intermediaries De-escalation incentives remain for both sides Earlier: Vance says progress made

UK retail boosted by Easter, but underlying spending weakens as fuel shock bites. Summary: UK retail sales jump on Easter timing effect BRC like-for-like +3.1% y/y vs +0.7% prior Total sales +3.6% y/y vs +1.1% prior Barclays spending softer at +0.9% vs +1.0% Travel spending drops 3.3% y/y Consumers delaying purchases, building savings UK consumer

Prior 98.8 Full report here The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, leaving it below its 52-year average of 98.0. The last time the Optimism Index fell below its historical average was April 2025. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points from February to 92, well above its historical average

Trump: We were called this morning by the right people from Iran Iran thought they were close to an agreement on Sunday morning – report Fed’s Goolsbee: Oil futures show this will be a short-run problem (why he’s wrong) US March existing home sales 3.98m vs 4.06m expected Iran officials are studying abandoning enrichment –

The US-Iran war has made things very complicated for the oil market, not least needing to balance out supply and demand dynamics. But from a financial perspective, it is also getting a bit dicey in trying to price out the difference between paper oil and physical oil. I talked a bit about the massive $30

Prior +2.3% HICP +3.4% vs +3.3% y/y prelim Prior +2.5% Core annual inflation is seen at 2.9% and that is a step up from the 2.7% reading in February. As higher energy prices bump up headline inflation, it will eventually also spill over to core prices down the road. That even more so the longer

This via a Reuters piece. US-Iran talks end without deal but leave door open for further dialogue. Summary: US-Iran talks end without agreement Sides reportedly “close” before breakdown Key disputes: nuclear programme, Hormuz, sanctions Talks described as tense but ongoing Dialogue continues via intermediaries De-escalation incentives remain for both sides Earlier: Vance says progress made

MAS tightens policy as imported inflation rises, even as growth outlook softens. An expected move. Summary: MAS tightens via steeper S$NEER appreciation slope No change to band width or centre Inflation forecasts raised to 1.5–2.5% (from 1.0–2.0%) Imported energy costs driving price pressures GDP growth seen slowing in 2026 Q1 GDP 4.6% y/y, but -0.3%

Summary: Bessent urges Fed to “wait and see” on rate cuts Sees recent inflation spike as temporary Confident inflation expectations remain anchored Notes strong economic momentum into early 2026 Geopolitical risks complicating policy outlook U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled a cautious approach to monetary policy, arguing that the Federal Reserve should adopt a “wait-and-see”

This is mostly a repeat to what we’ve heard from earlier in the day, that both sides are eyeing talks on Thursday in Islamabad. But as the echo chamber gets louder, we’re seeing market players pick up on the optimism and running with it. It’s a funny thing that even though the latest development is

Summary: Recession risks seen rising if war persists Global trade growth downgraded to 2–5% Growth driven more by prices than volumes Supply chain risks flagged by majority of exporters Firms adapting via stockpiling and diversification Eurozone downside growth seen near 0.2% Recession risks are expected to become more pronounced later this year (US fall season)

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 1bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

HSBC warns energy shock will persist without Middle East peace deal. Summary: HSBC warns peace deal key to restoring energy flows Oil near $100 as Hormuz disruption persists ~10mb/d supply already impacted, more at risk Energy-driven inflation seen rising Growth outlook increasingly uncertain Central banks may stay on hold HSBC Chair Brendan Nelson warned that

Australian business confidence collapses as energy shock crushes outlook. Earlier: RBA’s Hauser warns of stagflation risk as energy shock hits economy. says not sure interest rates are at the right level to tame inflation, adds rates need to bring inflation to the 2-3% target and that Q2 headline inflation is around 5% due to fuel

Summary: Hauser flags stagflation risk as central bank “nightmare” Inflation still too high in Australia Supply capacity described as constrained Energy prices seen as major income shock Focus on preventing rise in inflation expectations RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that Australia is facing a difficult macroeconomic backdrop, with elevated inflation and constrained supply capacity

Earlier here: Top Trump official says gas prices will rise even higher in coming weeks More detail now. Summary: Oil prices seen peaking in coming weeks Peak tied to resumption of Hormuz shipping Prices likely to rise until flows normalise U.S. blockade adding to near-term disruption Venezuela supply ramp offers partial offset U.S. Energy Secretary

China’s yuan-denominated imports rose 19.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, while exports increased 11.9%, according to customs data. Total trade (imports + exports) exceeded CNY 11 trillion for the first time on record, with growth marking the strongest pace in five years. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary: Vance says talks made “a lot of progress” U.S. gained insight into Iran’s negotiating stance No deal yet, but framework for “grand deal” exists Iran seen as not fully authorised to agree Hormuz reopening and uranium key U.S. demands Ball now “in Iran’s court” U.S. Vice President JD Vance struck a cautiously optimistic tone

Japan’s Katayama outlines global meeting agenda, offers no new policy signals. Summary: Katayama to attend G7, G20, IMF, World Bank meetings Talks to cover financial markets and energy situation Japan signals readiness to support Asian economies Monitoring JGB yields, maintaining market dialogue Monetary policy decisions left to BoJ Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama outlined her

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Miran is speaking soon. He is a political appointee and a motivated speaker for rate cuts. His views are irrelevant and he is ignored by sober members of the FOMC. Chinese trade data the focus otherwise today. China’s export momentum is expected to have eased in March as the boost from AI-driven demand runs into

Trump officials are weighing another possible face-to-face with Iranian leadership, according to CNN. That’s likely a soft float towards an earlier report that cited Iranian sources and said a meeting would take place on Thursday. In any case, the oil market is speaking much louder than the headlines. WTI is now trading at $97.19 from

The next round of talks is scheduled for Thursday in Islamabad, according to a source from Iran cited by the Atlantic. That’s another positive sign. It seems highly likely that the US thinks it can get a deal on nuclear material in exchange for whatever Iran is reasonably asking for (sanctions relief +). Next round

Anyone in the oil market would tear that argument apart: The backwardated curve (front at $100, December at $77) doesn’t mean “the market thinks prices will fall to $77.” It means holders of physical oil are demanding a large premium for near-term delivery relative to deferred delivery. That’s a statement about current scarcity and inventory

Prior was +4.8% Non-residential -24.0% Residential +1.7% This drop was mostly the result of quirks as institutional permits were halved in the month. Often times these are lumpy things like hospitals. When you look at commercial alone, it fell 8%, which also isn’t great. The surprise is that residential continues to hold up despite high

A new report from Axios’ Barak Ravid says Iran was caught off guard by JD Vance leaving talks in Pakistan. Iran thought they were close to an agreement on Sunday morning, he says. The main sticking points were differences over Iran’s nuclear program and whether Iran will agree not to enrich uranium at all and

Tech Giants Propel Amid Semiconductor Strains Sector Overview Today’s stock market demonstrates a divergent landscape, heavily influenced by movements within the technology sector. The software-infrastructure segment shines with notable gains, spearheaded by Microsoft (MSFT), up 1.76%, and Oracle (ORCL), leaping by an impressive 7.25%. In contrast, the semiconductor sector faces challenges, with Micron Technology (MU)

Summary: ANZ expects the RBNZ to begin hiking earlier and more aggressively, driven by rising inflation risks from energy and persistent price pressures, even as the domestic economy remains uneven. ANZ has revised its outlook for New Zealand monetary policy, now expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to begin a tightening cycle earlier

Vance has done a good job on Iran talks, they want to make a deal badly Says sticking point is on nuclear Iran didn’t agree not to have a nuclear weapon Thinks Iran will now agree on nuclear We’ll get nuclear material back If Iran doesn’t agree to no nuclear weapons, there will be no

US stock markets are showing incredible resilience, even as the US starts squeezing off the only traffic hauling oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade went into effect at 10 am ET. The market is sensing this is all theatre in the lead up to some kind of deal where Iran gives up nuclear

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold opened lower today following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. I don’t think anybody sane expected them to reach an agreement on the first round given the strong divergence in proposals. There have been reports of US and Iran continuing to exchange messages through diplomatic backchannels, but for now we

The blockade will be enforced in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, east of the Strait of Hormuz It will apply to all vessel traffic regardless of flag However, it will not impede neutral transit through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations But neutral vessels may still be subject to the

Summary: Japan 10-year JGB yield hits 29-year high (2.49%) as oil shock builds US–Iran talks collapse and Hormuz blockade fears lift inflation expectations Energy-driven inflation risks push yields higher across the curve Highlights Japan’s sensitivity to imported energy shocks Reinforces BoJ policy dilemma amid rising global inflation pressures Japan’s government bond market came under renewed

Prior was 4.09m Sales -3.6% vs +2.7% prior Median price $408,800, up 1.4% y/y Inventory 4.1 months The National Association of Realtors’ existing home sales series measures the annualized transaction volume of previously owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, based on closing data from multiple listing services. Because closings typically lag contract signings by

The market is sensing a deal where Iran gives up nuclear and gets basically everything else it’s asking for. The thinking is that Trump wants a way out and can’t have the Strait closed for much longer. The latest report is from the New York Post and said that Iranian officials are studying abandoning uranium

This is a micro signal of macro stress in oil markets. While global supply hasn’t collapsed, downstream rationing behaviour suggests tightening logistics and precautionary inventory control. For oil, it reinforces a bullish risk premium narrative. For India, it raises concerns about inflation and growth via transport costs. Broader EM sentiment could be pressured if similar

Recapping this ICYMI earlier. Hungary’s election removes a key EU disruptor, signalling a shift toward greater integration, policy alignment, and potential economic support flows from Brussels. Summary: Hungary delivers political shock with Orbán ousted after 16 years Centre-right Tisza party wins decisive majority amid record turnout Outcome signals shift back toward EU alignment and policy

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 and 1.1700 levels. The dollar has opened with a gap higher today after US-Iran talks collapsed over the weekend. So, that is still going to be the key driver

A sharp drop in floating storage reflects Middle East tankers restarting movement after ceasefire news, signalling easing disruption. Its already dated data given weekend developments and the renenewed underlying geopolitical risk. Massive w/w draw in floating storage (-47.2mmb) as Middle East flows restart (data via Vortexa) Ceasefire and US–Iran talks triggered movement of previously stranded

New Zealand’s services sector is contracting more deeply, with broad-based weakness and falling confidence driven by geopolitical uncertainty. The data point to slowing growth and rising downside risks to the economic outlook. New Zealand Services PMI for March 2026 46.0 prior 48 Composite 48.8 prior 50.5 Summary: New Zealand services sector contracts further in March

Headlines: A softer risk mood to start the new week but the feeling is that it could’ve been worse US president Trump reaffirms blockade on Iranian ports starting from later today Iran: No security for Persian Gulf ports if own is threatened Oil prices surge after US-Iran talks collapse over the weekend Oil prices jump

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Japanese economy, prices moving roughly in line with BOJ forecasts Financial markets are seeing unstable movements due to conflict in the Middle East Rising oil prices are weighing on Japan’s economy due to worsening terms of trade If the conflict is prolonged, it could weigh on corporate activity Should it also push up inflation expectations,

From his Truth Social post: “The United States to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports on April 13 at 10:00 A.M. ET. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT” That means the blockade will officially begin at 1400 GMT later today. As a reminder, the blockade that Trump is referring to

The negotiations between the US and Iran over the weekend failed to produce a deal. In the end, trying to come to a nuclear agreement proved to be a bridge too far. Even though it might just be a singular point, it is one massive gap that both sides are unable to compromise on. So,

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Scanning some of the futures opening prices (earlier FX gave indications of the trouble): S&P500 and Nasdaq futures down more than 1% Oil up, brent above $102.50 and US crude (CL) above %105.20 Weekend: US-Iran talks break down. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices opened higher today following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. This shouldn’t be a surprise though given the strong divergence in stances ahead of the talks. There have been reports of US and Iran continuing to exchange messages through diplomatic backchannels, but for now we don’t have any official

You can check out market charts free here: Live Charts In a nutshell, oil is not even approaching its gap, but FX and equities are faring a little (a very little) better. The news: the collapse of recent US–Iran talks US Navy would implement a blockade targeting vessels interacting with Iranian ports, focusing on Iranian-linked

The BOK is signalling readiness to respond to excessive won weakness as geopolitical risks drive FX volatility, while inflation concerns rise and growth remains uneven. Summary: BOK governor nominee flags readiness to act against excessive won weakness FX volatility driven by Middle East tensions and failed US–Iran talks Inflation risks rising, now key factor for

BOK nominee flags intervention action on won weakness as inflation risks rise China still has room to ease as inflation remains below target, BofA says Some retracement gap filling happening in Asia trade. But not for oil. Recap – Orbán ousted as Hungary shifts toward EU alignment in election shock PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference

China’s inflation outlook has been nudged higher, but externally driven price pressures and weak domestic demand mean policymakers still have room to ease further. Summary: BofA lifts China inflation forecasts but sees pressures externally driven CPI seen at 1.0%, PPI at 1.2% for 2026 Inflation remains below PBoC comfort levels Weak domestic demand keeps easing

Energy shock meets politics: Trump braces for high fuel prices as Iran pressure ramps up. Summary: Trump flags gasoline prices likely to stay elevated into November midterms US announces targeted Hormuz blockade focused on Iranian-linked shipping Clarification: transit to non-Iranian ports still allowed War-driven energy shock feeds into domestic political pressure Opposition questions strategy; approval

Iran’s foreign minister: In intensive talks at highest level in 47 years, Iran engaged with U.S in good faith to end war But when just inches away from ‘Islamabad Mou’, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade ‘Zero lessons learned’ Dude is just having a bitch. Posting these if of interest to anyone. This article

WSJ (gated) report that Trump is weighing limited strikes alongside a Hormuz blockade after talks failed, keeping diplomacy alive but shifting toward pressure tactics. The policy path remains uncertain, with escalation and restraint both carrying significant risks. Summary: Trump weighing limited strikes alongside Hormuz blockade after talks collapse Full-scale war seen as less likely but

The unsurprising news from the weekend: US-Iran talks break down. Trump announces blockade of the Strait of Hormuz As I said on Friday, prior US administrations had extensive talks with Iran over years and years, occasionally achieving an incremental agreement on an issue. The goal of this admin was to get a wide ranging agreement

Sat: US/Iran Talks Sun: Hungary Election Mon: OPEC MOMR (Apr), Chinese M2 Money Supply (Mar), US Existing Home Sales (Mar), US Monthly Budget Statement (Mar) Tue: IEA OMR (Apr), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr), Chinese Balance of Trade (Mar), Japanese Industrial Production Final (Feb), German Wholesale Prices (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Mar), US

Fars is reporting that Israel will announce it’s commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time (it is 10:15 PM now in Beirut). The announcement gives a path to peace talks between the US and Iran this weekend… WHat to expect? The U.S. position, led by JD Vance, is centered on security and stability.

The GBPUSD is heading into the close trading near the lower end of a well-defined swing-area ceiling between 1.34708 and 1.3488 (see red numbered circles on the chart below). This zone has repeatedly capped upside attempts over the past six or so weeks, making it a key barometer for buyer conviction. Each test has attracted

The talks in Islamabad have beguin, according to reports from all sides. Notably, Iran has said it can’t open Hormuz because of mines in the water. The US seems to be calling that bluff as ‘several’ US navy ships passed through. Trump said “We’re now starting the process of clearing out Hormuz”. I wonder if

Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices close above 100 day moving averages Isreal wil announce its commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time Crude oil futures settles at $96.57. Down sharply on the week US March Budget deficit for March -$164.00 billion versus -$156.75 billion estimate Israeli Broadcasting Authority Netanyahu approves every attack

Iranian officials land at Nur Khan Airbase in Islamabad under Pakistan’s Air Force escort ahead of peace talks, two Pakistani sources involved in talks Iranian delegation led by Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf arrived in Islamabad ahead of peace talks with U.S. Iran says talks with U.S. to begin if “preconditions are accepted” – Iranian media

The major stock indices were mixed in trading today with the Dow industrial average and S&P index falling, but the NASDAQ index rising. While the indices were higher on the week with the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices closing above their 100 day moving averages. The Dow industrial average trading above its 100 day moving

The price of crude oil is settling at $96.57. That is down $-1.30 or -1.33% on the day. For the week, the price is down $-16 or -14.29%. The price is also below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at $102.87 and $103.57. The big catalyst was the announcement of a cease-fire and the

US February PCE inflation 2.8% y/y vs 2.8% expected US initial jobless claims 219K vs 210K estimate US final Q4 GDP +0.5% vs +0.7% expected Netanyahu opens up direct negotiations with Lebanon Trump will ask Netanyahu to reduce bombing in Lebanon to help negotiations Iran wants a complete ceasefire in Lebanon before negotiations Statement from

Prior was +0.1% Ex-transport +1.2% vs +0.4% prior (revised to +0.5%) Revisions to durable goods orders: Orders -1.3% vs -1.4% prelim Ex-transport +0.9% vs +0.8% prelim Capital goods orders nondefense ex-air +0.7% vs +0.6% prelim Capital goods shipments nondefense ex-air +1.4% vs +1.3% prelim This is a solid report with the ex-transport number looking particularly

In an unusual post on TruthSocial, Pres. Trump says: Shares of Palantir reached a new low going back to June 2025 today at $122.68. The price is now trading at $128.20. The high reached $129.17. It is great Trump has the time to post on his stock picks, with all the other stuff going. Amazing.

There is the Strait of Hormuz and then there is domestic production. In the current week, the Baker Hughes rig count fell -3 at 545. Looking at the pieces: Oil rigs aree unchanged at 411 Natural Gas is down -3 at 127. Total rigs -3 at 545. Crude oil is is trading up $0.57 at

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. Earlier: ING turns bullish on Chinese yuan, shifts USD/CNY forecast lower to 6.70–7.05 Yuan seen strengthening to

The S&P index has dipped into negative territory with the price is now down 5 points or -0.08% at 6819.25. The low price reached 6818.42. The NASDAQ index is still higher by 66 points or 0.29% but trading at session lows. The Dow industrial average is down 223 points or -0.47%. The S&P index is

The major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. The gains were led by Italy’s FTSE MIB which is closing just below its all-time high price reached back to 2000 at 48909.04. Spain’s Ibex close at 18204.31, which is getting close to its all-time high close of 18573.83. A look at the daily

In an interview with the New York Post President Donald Trump said US warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” in case strikes on Iran resume Warned military action will follow if peace talks fail Said outcome of negotiations should be known within ~24 hours Peace talks taking place in Pakistan (Islamabad) following a

Prior month 53.3 Consumer Sentiment 47.6 vs 52.0 estimate. Worst on record. Year on year -8.8% Current conditions 50.1 versus 55.8 last month.Year on year -16.2% Expectations and 46.1 versus 51.7 last month. Year on Year -2.5% 1 year inflation expectations 4.8% versus 3.8% last month 5 year inflation expectations 3.4% versus 3.2% last month

The Fed nominee Kevin Warsh nomination hearing scheduled for next week is to be delayed. This is according to the New York Post. No new hearing date scheduled yet Delay due to Senate Banking Committee awaiting required paperwork Committee must give at least one week’s notice before holding the hearing Deadline to proceed as planned

The geopolitical tension continues with reports that Trump had a tense call with Israel Netanyahu on Lebanon. Trump wants Israel to slow down its bombings on Lebanon while negotiations for a cease-fire continue with Iran. Netanyahu does not want to stop the bombing. In other geopolitical news: Iran also wants the release of blocked assets

The USDCHF is trading to fresh session lows heading into the weekend, reaching its lowest level since March 24. The downside momentum is gaining traction as the price continues to move further away from the 100-day moving average at 0.7886. Earlier this week, the pair dipped below that moving average on Wednesday and again yesterday,

The EURUSD is pushing to a new session high following weaker-than-expected data from the University of Michigan. Sentiment dropped to a fresh record low at 47.6 (vs 52.0 expected), while 1-year inflation expectations jumped sharply to 4.8% from 3.8%. Ongoing tensions tied to the Iran conflict are clearly weighing on consumer confidence and shaping the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board on Wednesday after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. Since then, the price action became more rangebound due to Israeli attacks against Lebanon which the Iranians have been

China exits factory-gate deflation, but weak consumer demand and rising energy costs highlight an uneven and fragile inflation backdrop. Summary: China PPI turns positive at +0.5% y/y, ending multi-year deflation CPI soft at +1.0% y/y, below expectations and slowing from prior Confirms earlier theme: imported energy inflation vs weak domestic demand Oil shock from Iran

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a notable upswing in the semiconductor sector, with major players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) leading the charge. Nvidia is up by 2.22% and Broadcom by an impressive 5.45%, signaling strong investor confidence in this high-tech segment. Meanwhile, consumer cyclicals also see gains, particularly with Amazon (AMZN)

Japan March PPI 2.6% y/y expected 2.4%, prior 2% and 0.8% m/m expected 0.9%, prior -0.1% I’ll have more to come on this separately, details and implications. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fars is out with the following report: An informed source, in an interview with Fars reporter following up on the negotiation axes, stated: Tehran considers the option of negotiating with Washington off the table until a complete ceasefire is established in Lebanon, and it has strongly asserted this position. According to this informed source, one

ADB warns prolonged Middle East disruptions could significantly slow Asia growth and drive a sharp rise in inflation. Summary: ADB warns Asia-Pacific growth could slow sharply if Middle East disruptions persist Growth seen at 4.7% in 2026 under prolonged disruption vs ~5.1% baseline Region could lose 1.3pp of growth over 2026–27 if conflict drags on

The broader US stock indices are set to open modestly higher with the NASDAQ up 60 points in premarket trading and the S&P index up around 10 points. Yesterday, the S&P closed above its 100 day moving average for the 1st time since March 4. That moving average currently comes in at 6804.01. The closing

Japan expands oil reserve releases and diversifies supply routes to mitigate Middle East disruption risks. Summary: Japan to release an additional 20 days of oil reserves from May Follows earlier 50-day release initiated in March Total reserves remain substantial at ~230 days Tokyo aims to source over 50% of imports outside Hormuz routes Diversifying supply

Headlines: Oil prices consolidate ahead of the US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad. What’s next? The oil market faces a major reckoning if US-Iran peace talks fail Iran does not offer any goodwill gestures on Strait of Hormuz crossing ahead of talks After talking the talk, it is time for US (and Iran) to walk the

Japan’s wholesale inflation surge highlights rising cost pressures, with the BoJ warning of potential stagflation risks amid the Iran-driven energy shock. Summary: Japan wholesale inflation (CGPI) rises 2.6% y/y, above expectations Input costs surge, with import prices jumping 7.9% y/y Broad-based price pressures driven by oil, metals, chemicals BOJ flags vigilance on stagflation risk but

It all comes down to this. After agreeing on a two-week ceasefire, it now boils down to negotiations between the US and Iran to see what becomes of this temporary truce. There have been a lot of mixed messages since the start of the week but all of that won’t matter if we get positive

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board on Wednesday after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. Since then, the price action became more rangebound due to Israeli attacks against Lebanon which the Iranians have been

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 2bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As we count down to negotiations in Islamabad, it looks like Iran continues to want to hold its leverage ahead of talks with the US. According to the latest shipping data from Reuters, there’s still very minimal and restricted activity along the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. The data shows that only

Summary: New Zealand manufacturing PMI eased to 53.2 in March (from 54.8 prior) Sector remains in expansion but momentum is slowing New orders strongest component; deliveries weakest at neutral Negative sentiment among firms jumped sharply to 62% Iran war cited as a key source of uncertainty and concern Data suggests solid Q1 growth, but rising

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices dived on Wednesday after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. Since then, the price action became more rangebound due to Israeli attacks against Lebanon which the Iranians have been saying was part of the ceasefire

Summary: Japan FinMin Katayama downplays immediate oil shortage risks despite war backdrop Signals limited urgency on energy contingency measures for now G7 aligned that Middle East conflict must not be prolonged Highlights upcoming focus on critical minerals at G7 Plays down risks from private credit, no signs of systemic stress Uncertainty remains on domestic policy

While the data is not really the focus there is some big news expected from Chinese wholesale inflation data for March. China’s prolonged battle with deflation may be nearing a turning point, with early signs suggesting a return to positive price growth across key indicators. Rising global energy costs and base effects are expected to

Suspiciously timed trades and prediction market gains during the Iran conflict have sparked ethics concerns, prompting a White House warning and calls for tighter regulation. The Wall Street Journal (gated) carries the report. Summary: White House warned staff against betting on markets amid Iran war developments Warning followed suspiciously timed surge in oil futures trading

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

The price for oil that you’re seeing on the screen is nothing more than a mirage. That is where markets are currently sitting at. WTI crude is sitting under $100 and even though it has been climbing a little since the Wednesday plunge, it belies the fact that prices in the physical market are much

Summary: BoJ’s Himino says Japan not currently in stagflation Warns prolonged Middle East conflict could create stagflation-like conditions Highlights policy dilemma: weaker growth vs rising inflation BoJ to assess scale and duration of shock before adjusting policy Reaffirms data-dependent approach at each meeting Signals flexibility, but no shift away from inflation target Bank of Japan

Mixed signals dominate as Trump talks up oil flows while diplomacy remains unclear. Summary: Trump claims oil will “very quickly” start flowing again Comment clashes with ongoing shipping disruption and weak Hormuz traffic Reports of US–Iran talks in Pakistan emerge, then are denied by Iranian state-linked media Conflicting signals highlight lack of coordinated diplomacy Iran-linked

Bank of Korea, the South Korean central bank, kept its policy interest rate steady at 2.5%, as expected. Eyeing fuel and domestic inflation, growth risks. Governor Rhee Chang-yong will hold a press conference at 0210 GMT. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan finmin Katayama: Govt ready to take action on all fronts vs markets We are of the view that speculative action is heightening in crude oil, futures and FX markets I have been saying govt ready to take decisive action but won’t elaborate on future response Verbal intervention effort. This article was written by Eamonn

Dos Bocas matters less as a global crude-supply swing factor than as a refining and fuel-security risk. In today’s market, that still matters. Summary: Dos Bocas is Mexico’s flagship new refinery and a core part of Pemex’s energy self-sufficiency push. Nameplate capacity is about 340,000 bpd, but recent runs have been closer to roughly 205,000

ICYMI: Zandi warns the labour market is weaker than payrolls suggest, with his VCI indicator signalling recession risks may already be materialising. Summary: Mark Zandi warns March payrolls overstate labour market strength Job growth weak when stripping out distortions and healthcare hiring Recession risks remain elevated, near “coin flip” odds New “Vicious Cycle Index (VCI)”

China inflation. PPI first positive y/y since September of 2022. I’ll have more to come on this separately, detail, analysis etc. PPI m/m +1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US regulators convene major banks over AI-driven cyber risks, highlighting growing concern over systemic vulnerabilities. Info via Bloomberg (gated). Summary: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held urgent meeting with major banks Focus: cyber risks tied to advanced AI model “Mythos” Model reportedly capable of identifying and exploiting system vulnerabilities Regulators

Warsh hearing delay signals Powell likely to remain in place for now. Summary: Senate Banking Committee drops plans for Warsh hearing next week Delay due to missing nomination paperwork Pushes back timeline for any Fed leadership transition Suggests Jerome Powell likely remains in place for now Adds near-term policy continuity amid elevated macro uncertainty Markets

Closing changes: S&P 500 +0.6% Nasdaq Comp +0.8% Russel 2000 +0.6% DJIA +0.6% Toronto TSX Comp -0.4% There were some large divergences today. Amazon was up 5.5% on a report that it may sell its AI chips to other companies, making it a direct competitor to Nvidia. Meta also continued to gain, climbing 2.7% as

Yesterday’s relief rally in software stocks was quickly crushed and today the war lows were promptly taken out. The IGV software ETF is down 4.6% on the day. While the war was going on, Anthropic released more details on Claude and just yesterday, Meta released a solid model that highlights that scaling laws still apply.

Iran Pres. Pezeshkian is on the wires saying: Cease-fire reflects imposing the will of the Iranian nation on the enemy Iran “is not at war with any nation” Actions described as a response to aggression, not escalation Cease-fire approved unanimously by key pillars of the regime Decision made with guidance and approval from top leadership

Today’s USD 22bln 30-year bond auction will be watched closely after the prior sale stopped at a high yield of 4.871%, which was above the six-auction average of 4.745%. The last auction showed a tail of -0.7bps, better than the -0.3bps six-auction average, while the bid-to-cover came in at 2.45x, a touch above the 2.42x

Second reading was +0.7% The final Q3 reading was +4.4% Consumer spending final 1.9% vs +3.5% prior Q4 corporate profits after tax +5.7% vs +4.7% prior GDP final sales +0.3% vs +4.5% prior Inflation metrics: GDP deflator 3.7% vs 3.8% expected Core PCE final 2.7% vs 2.7% expected PCE prices final 2.9% vs 2.8% prior

High yield 4.876% Level at the time of the auction 4.871% Tail 0.5 basis point versus auction average of -0.3 basis points Bid to cover 2.39X versus auction average of 2.42X Directs 24.23% versus auction average of 24.0% Indirects 64.14% versus auction average of 66.0% Dealers 11.62% versus 6 auction average of 9.9% AUCTION GRADE:

I take this as good news that the two issues are being linked by the US. We may be seeing some kind of final flurry of strikes before the Strait is opened and Israel and Lebanon have a ceasefire as well. The market is also taking this as good news as the S&P 500 ticks

The NZDUSD surged higher yesterday, driven by broad USD selling following the cease-fire headlines and supported by a slightly more hawkish tilt from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The combination gave buyers the momentum needed to break through key technical levels. From a technical perspective, the pair pushed above the 100-bar moving average on

There are some real questions about the health of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with some suggesting he’s in a coma but a statement was read on Iran State TV that was attributed to him. Regarding the region, the statement says Iran is still awaiting an appropriate reaction from southern neighbors so that Iran can

Trump in a phone interview with NBC says: He is optimistic that an Iran peace deal is within reach. Iranian leaders speak differently when in a meeting than they do to the press They are much more reasonable They are agreeing to all things that they have to agree to. Remember they been conquered. They

US oil industry warns Hormuz toll plan risks global shipping cost surge and precedent. Summary: US oil industry pushing back on Hormuz toll proposal Lobbying White House, State Department, VP Vance Estimated cost: ~$2.5mn per shipment Would significantly raise transport and insurance costs Major concern over global precedent Risk other chokepoints adopt similar toll systems

The USDJPY is pushing higher, supported by a modest rebound in yields. The 10-year yield is up about 2 basis points—nothing dramatic, but a shift from earlier declines that is helping underpin the pair. From a technical perspective, yesterday’s sharp move lower tested a key swing area between 158.01 and 158.26. Sellers briefly pushed the