Prior quarter was +0.4% Real GDP y/y +2.6% vs +2.2% expected Prior y/y GDP was +2.1% Final consumption expenditure +0.5% vs +0.6% prior GDP chain price index +1.4% vs +0.8% prior Gross fixed capital expenditure +0.7% vs +3.0% prior This is a good report, though there has been little reaction from AUD. Australia just dropped […]

Tuesday was a bruising day for gold but let’s try to keep it in perspective. It was caught up in a ‘sell everything’ deleveraging market as all the weak hands regarding the Iran war got shaken out. In all likelihood, this will go just as the US expects, with a 4-5 week bombing campaign that’s

The major US stock indices are closing lower on the day, but well off their session lows after buyers stepped in during the latter part of trading. Concerns about the Iranian war, sharply higher oil prices and yields initially pushed the indices lower, but a reversal in the US session helped to retrace some of

The USDCHF moved higher earlier in the day, breaking above the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 0.78208. That break helped ignite additional buying momentum, pushing the pair up toward — and briefly through — the 61.8% retracement level at 0.78726. The rally ultimately stalled after reaching a high of 0.7878. However, as

S&P and NASDAQ index close down near 1% Trump: DFC to provide political risk insurance and guarantees to all Maritime Trade Pres. Trump speaking from the White House: Felt strongly Iran was going to attack first Feds Kashkari: Iran war impact could have monetary policy impact ECB’s Kazaks: Current rates are appropriate based on what

We are now into Day 2 of fully open trading since the war in Iran began, and the tone remains decisively risk-off. US equities are under heavy pressure: Nasdaq: -474 points S&P 500: -103 points Dow: -719 points At the same time, classic defensive flows are in play: Crude oil +6.3% 10-year yield +3.4 bps

We’re talking about some very big trade deals. We’re doing very well. Felt strongly Iran was going to attack first. Based on the way the talks were going. If anything, I might have forced Israel’s hand. Iran attacking countries that had nothing to do with what’s going on. Iran hitting only civilian places. Iran no

When I survey the scene in markets after one day of post-Iran war trading, there isn’t much surprising given the news. Naturally, oil rallied and the 8% climb is about what I would have expected given the broad attack and retaliation. A critical detail shortly after the war yesterday was Trump touting a 4-5 week

ECB’s Kazaks: Current rates are appropriate based on what I am seeing. There is no need to rush a hike. There are opposing forces coming from Iran shock and it depends on which one is a stronger. February inflation readings will keep us in cautious mode. The overall tone of the Kazaks comments are neutral

Too soon to know how Iran war will affect inflation. Iran war impact could have monetary policy impact. Elevated headline inflation bears watching given recent inflation path. Had thought monetary policy was in a good place. Fed need to see how big and longer-range shock will be. Uncertainty about tariff outlook has increased. Doesn’t think

If inflation ebbs, “further reductions” in policy rate target “eventually” warranted Central bank’s rate policy stance currently “well positioned” Eventual rate cuts aimed at keeping policy from being too restrictive Expects the unemployment rate to edge down this year and next Sees 2.5% GDP growth in 2026 on array of supporting factors Expects inflation to

While gold traditionally serves as a “flight-to-safety” asset during crises, the current price action is defying that playbook. After failing to clear key overhead resistance yesterday at the topside channel trendline (see video from yesterday), a breakdown at the $5,240–$5,250 confluence zone triggered significant selling momentum. This bearish move has systematically cleared several critical support

Prior was 2.6% Jobs-to-applicants ratio 1.18 vs 1.19 expected Prior ratio 1.19 Japan’s unemployment rate held at 2.6% for four consecutive months through December, up from 2.4% in June and a cycle low of 2.2% in mid-2024. While 2.6% remains low by international standards, the gradual upward drift represents a notable shift in a labour

The escalating blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered significant supply concerns, sending crude oil prices on a vertical tear. Prices have surged over 8.5% in today’s session, reclaiming levels not seen since mid-2025 as the market tests the critical $77.57 resistance zone. While sellers have initially defended this level, a clean break above

The S&P and NASDAQ indices are under pressure, with volatile two-way price action dominating the session. Sellers have regained control intraday, pushing both indices lower and forcing traders to reassess key technical levels. In the video above, I break down what the move to the downside means from a technical perspective, highlighting the support zones

The USD/CAD is currently locked in a tug-of-war as technical support meets a sharp fundamental shift in energy markets. While broad US Dollar strength provided an early lift, the pair has encountered a significant “ceiling” that remains unbroken. The Fundamental Context: Oil vs. Greenback The primary catalyst for the recent reversal is a 7.3% surge

The impact of the Iran conflict currently would be transmitted through oil prices, financial market conditions, and asset prices. The market reaction to the Iran conflict has been muted so far. Increased uncertainty may also have an impact. While movements in oil prices do not fundamentally shift the U.S. economy as they did 50 years

AI will change productivity growth, demand for labor. Only seen the beginning of how AI will change the economy. Higher productivity should mean higher real earnings over time. Size of AI impact is the question and is still to be determined. Do not believe AI will shift to structural unemployment, new technologies create more jobs

Sector overview The US stock market today paints a picture of volatility, with a pronounced downturn in the technology and consumer cyclical sectors. The semiconductor industry has taken a significant hit, while the energy sector shows resilience amidst widespread selling. 📉 Semiconductor Struggles: The semiconductor industry is experiencing sharp declines, with Micron Technology (MU) sinking

S&P and NASDAQ indices erase war declines and close higher on the day Reports of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is sending oil prices back higher Trump; US continues to carry out large scale combat operations in Iran Gold’s “Blow-off Top”: Geopolitical Spike Meets Technical Resistance ISM Manufacturing PMI for February 52.4 versus 51.8

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq opened lower yesterday after the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack over the weekend against various Iran’s targets that included key officials and military facilities. Their operation managed to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and many other regime officials. Iran responded with broad attacks against Israel and US bases in

No room to be complacent on inflation Inflation is hot, demand is outpacing supply No mention of Iran conflict in prepared remarks I hear optimism from contacts about the year ahead; I share it Growth trajectory remains strong, helped by fiscal policy Labor market is in balance Services inflation strong and faster than consistent with

The precious metal tends to move in tandem with gold prices when it comes to such situations but after the volatile selling at the end of January, the landscape has changed quite a lot. Despite the recovery momentum in recent weeks and also at the start of this week, the volatility bouts are still running

Nasdaq stays under pressure amid lower growth and higher inflation fears on US-Iran war Inflation fears reemerge as markets digest higher energy prices from US-Iran conflict Will Iran really manage to fully block the Strait of Hormuz? EURUSD falls back to January lows despite ECB rate hike bets as US Dollar surges Eurozone February preliminary

Oil prices are surging again today with WTI crude now bordering on 5% gains near $74.65 on the day. The resurgence of the petrodollar trade is one argument as to why the dollar is managing to come out on top this week, after having been shunned as a safe haven asset in previous occasions since

On Monday evening, a commander from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that the Strait of Hormuz was “closed” and warned that any vessel attempting to pass through would be attacked. As expected, on Tuesday oil, gas, and gold prices all jumped higher, while shipping traffic in the region only worsened. Yet there’s still no sign

French economic exposure to Mideast tensions are limited The ECB won’t decide on interest rates only on the basis of energy prices It would be a mistake to predict rate move in a hurry European gas prices have surged on Monday after Qatar announced it was halting LNG production following an Iranian drone attack. Oil

The sources mentioned that the market volatility triggered by the US-Iran conflict has now raised the odds of the BOJ holding off on raising interest rates later this month. Adding that the only real factor that could see policymakers lean towards a rate hike would be to address the sharp decline in the Japanese yen

The reaction in the bond market to the US-Iran conflict is something that should warrant more attention. While traders are focused on the risk side of things and safety flows, it’d be easy to miss that Treasury yields have actually gone up since the end of last week. 10-year yields are up another 5 bps

The AUD/USD is staging a resilient intraday recovery, climbing back toward session highs as the initial wave of market fear dissipates. The primary catalyst is a broad rebound in U.S. equities, with all three major indices now trading in positive territory. The Macro Backdrop: Stocks Lead the Way As the “risk-on” sentiment returns, the Australian

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar rallied across the board yesterday on safe haven demand as US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and yesterday’s ISM

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is the Eurozone Flash CPI. The Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 1.7% vs 1.7% prior, while the Core Y/Y is seen at 2.2% vs 2.2% prior. The data is not going to change anything for the ECB as central banks are trying to assess the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar rallied across the board yesterday on safe haven demand as US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and yesterday’s ISM

It’s looking rough out there at the open again as equities are being hammered lower. Investors are seeking shelter amid the US-Iran conflict and the favoured play right now looks to be the dollar. The greenback is once again higher across the board with European currencies in particular struggling. In Europe, natural gas prices are

Expected was +5.0% (some at 5.5%) Prior was -14.9% Private house approvals +1.1% vs +0.4% prior Building approvals +8.7% y/y vs +13.3% prior This is a sharp two-month drop in construction activity but think of it more as a normalization. Australian dwelling approvals were characterised by significant monthly volatility through 2025, driven almost entirely by

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at the 157.00 level. However, the expiries don’t tie to any technical significance and may not have too much impact considering prevailing trading sentiment in broader markets. As traders digest the US-Iran conflict and

There was a bit of profit-taking at the onset yesterday but given time to digest the Middle East situation, we’re starting to see oil prices surge higher again today. The jump on the day now sees prices move back up to contest the highs from the opening gap higher yesterday. WTI crude oil is now

The firm argues that but for plausible intervention by the SNB yesterday, the Swiss franc would’ve recorded better gains in reaction to the US-Iran conflict thus far. The key line in the sand that they’re highlighting is the obvious one at 0.90 for EUR/CHF. That is one that has become quite evident after the break

The latest update from the US Central Command: “US forces have destroyed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities, Iranian air defense capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields during sustained operations. We will continue to take decisive action against imminent threats posed by the Iranian regime.” At first read, this should

Board uncertain if financial conditions sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to midpoint of target in reasonable timeframe Range of indicators tell us that labour market conditions are tight Economic data since Feb rate hike support that move Underlying demand in economy further from supply potential than we had assessed Large part of unexpected increase in

With all that is happening in the Middle East, let’s not forget that there is also an ongoing trade war between the US and the rest of the world. The Supreme Court shooting down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs has changed the landscape here dramatically. And that is making for a bit of an awkward setting ahead

New Zealand building consents rose 1.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, clawing back some of December’s 4.5% decline. The monthly number is fine but the real story here is in the annual figures — and for the first time in a while, there’s something constructive to talk about. In the year ended January

Prolonged conflict could lead to a “substantial spike” in inflation At the same time, it could also cause a “sharp drop in output” in the euro area Directionally, a jump in energy prices puts upward pressure on inflation especially in the near-term The magnitude of the shock heavily depends on “the breadth and duration of

Crude oil prices have pushed back above the $72.50 level, with WTI now trading roughly 7.8% higher on the day, as geopolitical risk continues to dominate price action. The latest advance follows a corrective pullback earlier in the North American session that saw prices dip toward the $70 area before buyers stepped back in and

Gold jumped at the weekly open due to uncertainty around the Iran war but that quickly gave way to profit taking and it sagged down to $5300. Then a second and third wave of bids arrived in Europe and the US leading to a session high of $5419 before selling into the US close and

It’s been a challenge for traders and investors seeking a ‘back to risk-on sentiment’ vibe with all the action around. The market landscape remains highly sensitive to headlines, as evidenced by reports of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz which once again sent oil prices climbing. This volatility initially pressured equities, yet the S&P and

The market is trying to suss out what the plan is for Iran. Yesterday there was an interview with John Bolton that emphasized that Trump is impulsive and likes to improvise. Trump himself also outlined a 4-5 week timeline, which suggests there is a plan. What’s less clear are the goals of the mission, which

The broader S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices closed higher on the day after staging an impressive rebound from sharp losses seen shortly after the open. Early selling pressure faded as buyers stepped back in, allowing equities to recover into the close. The S&P 500 fell as much as 72 points at session lows before reversing

The USD/CAD has undergone a decisive shift during the North American session. As the recent surge in oil prices began to lose steam, the pair found the momentum needed to snap higher, fundamentally altering the short-term technical landscape. The Bullish Breakout: Reclaiming the Moving Averages The initial spark for this move was a successful breach

The USD/JPY bulls made a massive power play in today’s session, but the momentum has hit a significant wall. While the morning was defined by aggressive buying, the failure to sustain the breakout has handed the “short-term steering wheel” back to the sellers. The Rise: Clearing the 100-Hour MA and Last Week’s High The day

Choosing a forex broker can be confusing. One site advertises “low spreads,” another emphasises “fast execution,” and a third promotes a bonus while hiding real costs in the fine print. Most traders end up doing the same thing: opening 10 tabs, taking notes, and still feeling unsure. That’s why here at investingLive, we have launched

The EUR/USD experienced a sharp sell-off today, cascading from a high near the converged 100 and 200-hour moving averages (1.1786) down to a session low of 1.1671. While fundamental drivers sparked the volatility, the price action is currently being defined by a high-stakes tug-of-war between two major technical levels. The Support Zone: 200-Day Moving Average

Iran refused to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons Regime ballistic missile program was growing rapidly Would have soon had missiles capable of reaching America Ensuring they cannot obtain nuclear weapon Ensuring cannot fund or direct armies outside their borders We are ahead of our time projections An Iran with nuclear weapons would be intolerable

Prior month 52.6 ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 51.8 estimate Prices paid 70.5 versus 60.0 estimate. Last month 59.0. Highest level since June 2022 Employment 48.8 versus 48.1 last month New orders 55.8 versus 57.1 last month. Weakest since December 2025 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Even when markets are volatile and there is a lot of uncertainty, we would still make necessary decision At times, we might need to shift policy precisely because markets are volatile It’s not as if we would hold off on changing policy just because markets are volatile Appropriate to keep monetary conditions accommodative and gradually

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Crude oil opened with a big positive gap today after the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack over the weekend against various Iran’s targets that included key officials and military facilities. Their operation managed to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and many other regime officials. Iran responded with broad attacks against Israel

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ initially buckled under the weight of escalating tensions in Iran, but the “first move” once again proved to be an overreaction. After a steep premarket slide, buyers stepped in during early U.S. trading, sparking a sharp recovery and stabilizing risk sentiment. The NASDAQ’s intraday journey was particularly telling: after plunging

The escalation of the conflict in Iran sent gold prices on a vertical trajectory, with the metal surging $140.71 to hit a session high of $5,419.32. However, the rally proved short-lived. Since that peak, the market has undergone a violent reversal, erasing all gains to trade slightly into the red (down ~$18.00 from the previous

Sector Overview: Technology Decline and Financial Fluctuations The US stock market is witnessing a significant downturn in the technology sector today, with key players such as Microsoft (MSFT) barely breaking even at +0.07% and Oracle (ORCL) dropping by 2.21%. Notably, semiconductor giants like Broadcom (AVGO) and Micron (MU) are down 3.43% and 3.53% respectively, indicating

Prior +0.3% UK house prices were seen steady, growing slightly again in February. That brings the average price of a dwelling in the UK to £273,176. The annual house price growth keeps unchanged as in January at +1.0%. Nationwide notes that: “This reinforces the view of a modest recovery after a dip at the end

The USD is higher vs the major currencies as the market digests the war in Iran. A snapshot shows: Swiss Franc (CHF): +1.08% Euro (EUR): +0.77% New Zealand Dollar (NZD): +0.77% Japanese Yen (JPY): +0.72% British Pound (GBP): +0.58% Australian Dollar (AUD): +0.55% Canadian Dollar (CAD): +0.12% In the video above, I take a technical

It looks like we’re finally getting a feel of where the SNB wants to draw the line next in EUR/CHF. This has been a key debate since the start of the year and especially more so after the pair fell below the previous line in the sand around 0.9200. That led to the hot question

Central Banker Comments Bank of Canada — Kozicki Key Messages Monetary policy may need tightening even during economic weakness. Supply-side developments are increasingly important in fighting inflation. Policy Bias: Hawkish bias — willingness to prioritize inflation control even if growth softens. European Central Bank (ECB) Kocher Key Messages ECB should be ready to move rates

Since last year, the dollar hasn’t been the favoured haven currency in most negative risk events. In fact, it’s also not the yen but instead the franc took over the mantle. That amid the own problems brought about by the US administration and Tokyo’s policy directive change after Takaichi took over as prime minister. But

Some of you have already seen this bull flag in oil in my previous oil technical analysis article, well before the war started over the weekend. But here it is again with a detailed technical explanation. Remember, there is no “one single way” to do “technical analysis”. I use broad perspectives such as the ones

Real interest rates still significantly negative; policy remains accommodative following December’s hike to 0.75% Natural rate of interest estimated between -1% and +0.5%, wide range makes precise policy calibration difficult Food price inflation primarily supply-side shock, not demand driven; expects deceleration below 2% in H1 2026 US economy resilience surprised to upside; AI-related investment spillover

The early stages of the US-Iran conflict is seeing the US dollar and the Swiss franc among the more favoured currencies so far today. The Japanese yen typically has safen haven traits but has lost a lot of that allure in recent months. And now with oil prices swinging higher, that’s compounding woes as energy

Prior month 51.2 revise from 52.4 S&P Global manufacturing PMI 51.6 versus 51.2 expected Chris Williamson (S&P Global Market Intelligence) signaled that US manufacturing momentum softened in February, reflecting slower demand, tariff uncertainty, and weather disruptions. While inflation pressures are easing and optimism has improved somewhat, businesses remain cautious on hiring and investment amid ongoing

Comments from U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth U.S. will conclude operations under “America First” conditions. Iran was building a shield for nuclear ambition This is not an endless war. Iran operation will include casualties. Operation is not directed at Iraq and is not an endless war. U.S. mission in Iran is to destroy Iran’s missiles,

In view of the current international situation, we are more prepared to intervene in currency markets We are ready to intervene in the FX market to dampen any rapid, excessive appreciation of the franc More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Crypto futures are navigating a heavy geopolitical backdrop, but the price response so far has been more controlled than many would have expected after an intense weekend. Rather than a straight-line liquidation, both Bitcoin and Ether are showing two-way trade with clear areas where participation has concentrated and where follow-through has repeatedly stalled. This write-up

Monday begins with the release of manufacturing PMI data for the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. On Tuesday, the euro area will publish flash estimates for CPI y/y and core CPI y/y, while in the U.K., attention will focus on the annual budget release. Wednesday brings GDP q/q data from Australia and the CPI

The European Commission is said to have sent an email to EU governments, in noting that it sees no immediate impact on the bloc’s security of oil supply from the situation in the Middle East. That according to Reuters, who has glanced over the email details with it stating that: “At this stage, we do

There is just one to take note of for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 level. But on a day like this, the impact of any larger option expiries should be negated. This one keeps near to the current spot price but I would say that it

There’s plenty to digest as we get the new week/month underway in trading today. The main story is that the US, alongside Israel, finally decided to launch military attacks against Iran. Reports are saying that the strikes were supposed to be carried out last week but were delayed due to operational and intelligence reasons. Nonetheless,

Prior 49.2 That’s a slight improvement to the January estimate, as production levels were seen broadly stable in February. That being said, the order books declined for a third straight month albeit at a slower rate at least. On the price front, Spanish manufacturers saw another steep rise in input prices with the rate of

Prior was 49.1 Key findings: Comment: This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Oil futures opened for the week in what will surely be the most-closely followed market today and for the next few weeks. WTI crude jumped 11% to $74.57 ($75.33 was the high print). Brent is trading up about 8% after briefly touching $82.37. It’s taken only seconds for some selling to kick in. The war

Crude oil futures opened the new week with a sharp gap higher, reflecting a renewed geopolitical risk premium following weekend developments in the Middle East. Early trade has been volatile and two‑sided, with price discovery stretching across a wide intraday range (roughly $69.20 to $75.33 on the session data shown), before settling back into the

Things are just getting messier by the hour. QatarEnergy is the state-owned integrated energy company of Qatar. And they have just announced a stop to its LNG production and associated products. That follows attacks on its operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City. For some context, Qatar ranks as among the

Headlines: Gold prices surge as US-Iran conflict triggers a flight to safety: Record highs in sight This Technical Map Shows Oil’s Technical Analysis Before and After the War Dollar holds firmer across the board as markets digest US-Iran conflict Swiss franc tumbles after SNB warning earlier We are more prepared to intervene in FX market

A Reuters source is reporting that Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery, which is the largest oil refinery in the Middle East, was hit by a drone attack and forced to shut down as a precautionary measure. The source did note that the “situation is under control” though. However, the strike continues to highlight the kind

Prior 51.2 The final estimate is a slight nudge up to the initial reading, so it at least sees back-to-back months of increase in French manufacturing activity at the start of 2026. That being said, the February reading is rather marginal as production expanded in the absence of new order growth. On the price front,

I just finished writing up an interview with former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton and he talked about how Trump “doesn’t do strategic thinking” and his latest comments to the New York Times underscore that. “The president offered a variety of often inconsistent visions of how a new government could take shape after the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold started to rally steadily on Friday after we got various reports of evacuations that indicated a possible strike to follow over the weekend. Sure enough, the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack against various Iran’s targets that included key officials and military facilities. Their operation managed to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader

PEC+ agreed a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day on Sunday. The initial expectations were for no change but last week a leak said they were considering an additional 137K bpd. Ultimately, they decided on even more — likely due to the US strikes on Iran. The crude won’t be produced until

All eyes are on Iran at the moment but let’s change gears for a moment and have a look at the US earnings calendar. The last few weeks have been dominated by mega-cap tech and AI infrastructure, this week provides the a read-through on the global consumer. We have major discount retailers, big-box tech stores,

Prior +0.1%; revised to +1.2% The drop here needs to be put into context a little more, as it comes after a major bump up in the December 2025 retail sales jump. That figure was seen revised from +0.1% to +1.2% on the month. So, the miss on estimates in the headline isn’t as bad

Prior 49.5 Germany’s improvement is the main story driving the recovery in the euro area manufacturing sector to start the new year. Hopes of a sustained return to growth is making for a more optimistic picture at the moment. The headline reading is a 44-month high with the manufacturing output index also moving up to

Prior 48.1 Key findings: Fresh growth in output and new orders, ending two-month run of decline Brightest 12-month outlook in just over five years Intensification of cost and charge inflation Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “In February, we saw tentative signs of improvement in Italy’s

Prior 48.8 Hopes for a recovery in the Swiss industry were dashed with this being another contractionary reading in February. This marks a 38th straight month that Switzerland’s manufacturing sector recorded below the 50-point growth threshold. Of note, production slumped back lower with new orders also softening once again. The details: It reaffirms that the

Prior 51.8 Key findings: New export orders rise at quickest pace in four and-a-half years Business sentiment stays close to January’s recent high Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “UK manufacturing has made an encouraging start to 2026. Output rose at the quickest pace in 17 months during February, building on a

BOJ’s Himino: GDP is tracking okay Trump floats lifting sanctions against a new Iranian regime Bolton warns Trump may not have thought past the trigger on Iran OPEC+ hiked oil production by 206,000 bpd in Sunday’s meeting Trump: We have hit hundreds of targets Markets: WTI crude oil up $3.74 to $5.6% US 10-year yields

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get the final PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The data isn’t going to change anything for the respective central banks and will certainly be overshadowed by the conflict in the Middle East. In fact, depending on the length of the conflict, all the data

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John Bolton gave a candid interview to Politico and it’s worth reading carefully if you’re trying to figure out what comes next for oil markets and geopolitical risk. The former National Security Adviser praised the strikes as the “most consequential decision” of Trump’s presidency, but his warnings were pointed. Bolton said he’s “very worried” that

It’s going to be a dramatic day in markets as we reprice everything based on the war in Iran. Oil is obviously the big asset to watch but I’d warn that there was heavy front-running in the lead-up to the war. I’d estimate a premium of $5-8 so there is an incentive for the people

When the market hears bombs, it buys bonds. Or at least that’s usually the case. This time, the market is weighing whether the war in Iran is inflationary due to the 4.5% rise in oil prices so far. Notably, the gains in the oil market have been halved since the open but yields are at

By now, everyone knows what’s happening as the US and Israel strike Iran. Here is the state of play one hour into futures trading: WTI crude up $5.37 to $72.40 (about 8%) Gold up 2% to $5385 The US dollar leads in FX, narrowly ahead of CHF AUD/USD is the biggest mover, down 60 pips

Comments from Trump in a newly-released video: On Iran: We have hit hundreds of targets including Revolutionary Guard facilities, air defense systems and nine ships plus naval building On Iran: Combat operations continue On Iran: Military operations will continue until all of our objectives are achieved There will likely be more U.S. casualties Iranian regime

Highlights include US NFP, Retail Sales, ISM PMIs, OPEC, EZ Flash HICP, ECB Minutes and Australian GDP Sun: OPEC Meeting Mon: German Retail Sales (Jan), Final Manufacturing PMIs (Feb), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Tue: Japanese Unemployment (Jan), EZ Flash HICP (Feb), US RCM/TIPP (Mar), UK Spring Statement Wed: Australian GDP (Q4), Chinese NBS PMIs

As the Israel-Iran war moves into its second day, the story is escalating fast, and markets are already treating it as a week-level event rather than a one-night shock. Reuters reported that Iranian state media confirmed the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following US and Israeli strikes. (Reuters) In parallel, U.S. President

Major US stock indices close lower. S&P and NASDAQ index down for the month Why private equity stocks are getting wrecked today Trump: Not happy with Iran but more talks expected on Friday Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q1 3.0% versus 3.1% last Iran strikes loom large over today’s trade Silver sprints higher, gains

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q1 dipped to 3.0% from 3.1% last. In their own words The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 3.0 percent on February 27, down from 3.1 percent on February 24. After this morning’s releases from the

According to Israeli Media: A Broad US–Israel Strike Campaign in Iran and Markets May Be Entering a Full Geopolitical Week In the last hour, Israeli media is describing a large-scale, coordinated strike campaign inside Iran, framed not as a limited tactical action but as the opening phase of a broader, multi-day operation. The attack started

As the trading week comes to a close, the AUDUSD is higher on the week and continues to trade above a key cluster of moving averages, including the 100-hour moving average at 0.7093, the 200-hour moving average at 0.7078, and the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.7070. Holding above this moving average

US Pres. Trump is speaking on Iran and says: Not happy with Iran, but were talks expected Friday. Has not made a decision on Iran and not happy with how they negotiate. Iran cannot have nuclear weapon. There may or may not be a regime change in Iran. Wants to make a deal with Iran.

Both the S&P index only NASDAQ index closed lower for the month. The S&P fell -0.87% after a gain of 1.37% in the month of January. The NASDAQ index-3.38%. That was its worst month since March 2025. The Dow industrial average rose by a modest 0.17%. For the trading day, the major indices are all

In the video above, I take a deep dive into some of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective as the week comes to a close and the new week and month starts. In the video, I take a look at the: EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF USDCAD and AUDUSD Prepare for the new week

I don’t think anyone will be shedding a tear for the declines in private equity stocks but Blue Owl (which is notorious for software loans): -6% Jefferies -10.3% Apollo -8.4% KKR -7.3% Ares -7.1% Goldman Sachs -7% Morgan Stanley 6.6% The fundamental pitch of private equity is leveraged lending and buyouts. There were buyouts of

Prior +2.1% HICP +2.0% vs +2.1% y/y expected Prior +2.1% Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.5% prior We have slight misses here but that was pretty much expected after the softer German states readings here. Having said that, the core measure matched the prior reading. The data won’t change anything for the ECB. The market

Silver is up nearly 6% as it looks to break out of a recent range. These are the best levels since the crushing rout on January 30. Notably, that was the final trading day of January and this is the final trading day of February. The chart suddenly looks more promising as it breaks above

Prior YoY was +3.0% PPI M/M +0.5% vs 0.3% expected Prior +0.5% (revised to 0.4%) Core PPI Core PPI Y/Y +3.6% vs +3.0% expected Prior +3.3% Core PPI M/M +0.8% vs +0.3% expected Prior Core PPI MoM +0.7% (revised to 0.6%) WHAT THE US PPI MEASURES? The Producer Price Index (PPI) is an economic indicator

The NASDAQ index pushed to a high on Monday but failed to extend above its falling 100-hour moving average, a rejection that triggered a sharp move lower. The decline reached Tuesday’s weekly low near 22,193, aligning with the top of a key swing support area. A subsequent rebound carried the index back above the 100-hour

Headlines: Gold remains supported amid US-Iran uncertainty, but downside risks linger with NFP next Oil prices remain supported amid US-Iran uncertainty; traders likely to hedge into weekend Major currencies not up to much as we get into the final stretch of the week Bavaria February CPI +1.9% vs +2.1% y/y prior France February preliminary CPI

German inflation remains one of, if not the key sticking point for the ECB in trying to sort out monetary policy setting. Price pressures in Europe’s largest economy hasn’t dropped off enough to allow for the central bank to take more steps in lowering interest rates further. And late last year, there were still stagflation

There is no sense over-analyzing price action today across markets. Yes, there is the usual software anxiety in stock markets but the overarching theme across bonds, FX, commodities and precious metals is simple — angst about US strikes on Iran. That thinking has US 10-year yields below 4% for the first time since November while

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come – Earlier, PBOC trimming some support for the yuan: PBOC cuts FX risk reserve ratio to 0%, slowing yuan appreciation This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar continues to bounce around as macro and geopolitical uncertainty is keeping the market rangebound. The greenback strengthened yesterday after early reports suggested the third round of US–Iran talks had broken down, with Iran reportedly rejecting US demands. Later in the day, however, new headlines indicated that the discussions had

The broader market sentiment is one that looks to be more cautious, especially with the sudden hit in Wall Street overnight. In the end, US stocks ended lower but it could’ve been worse. Tech shares led the declines as the S&P 500 fell by 0.5% and Nasdaq by 1.0%, while the Dow closed flat. That’s

The USDCHF is moving lower in North American trading, pressured by a softer US dollar backdrop as risk sentiment deteriorates. US equities opened sharply lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.78% and the NASDAQ falling 1.08%. At the same time, US yields are declining despite higher-than-expected PPI data, signaling markets are looking past inflation strength

UK confidence slips as unemployment rises and car output weakens, clouding the early-year growth outlook. Summary: UK consumer confidence fell to -19 in February, a three-month low Unemployment rose to 5.2%, highest since early 2021 Car production dropped 8.2% y/y in January; exports down 10.1% Commercial vehicle output plunged 68.6% amid restructuring Savings rate remains

The USDCAD moved lower in the latest hourly bar, testing Monday’s low near 1.3649. The break lower has been modest so far, but sellers remain in control as downside pressure persists. Earlier in the session, the pair briefly moved higher following the PPI release, but that rally quickly faded after the price tested the 100-hour

Sector Overview The stock market today showcases a complex tapestry of trends and fluctuations. The technology sector is under significant pressure, with major players like Microsoft (MSFT) down by 2.63% and Nvidia (NVDA) witnessing a 2.24% decline. Notably, Broadcom (AVGO) is also down by 3.11%, pointing towards a widespread downturn within the tech space. On

Major banks reaffirm confidence in NVIDIA’s AI growth runway, lifting targets and flagging multi-year demand visibility. Summary: JPMorgan maintains Buy, lifts price target to $265 from $250 UBS reiterates Buy, keeps $245 target UBS says it’s “hard to see” why shares remain rangebound Analysts point to stronger guidance, demand visibility, backlog into 2027 Street sees

While a lot of focus on the BOJ is turning to the outcome of the spring wage negotiations in the weeks ahead, ANZ is one to argue that the bigger picture outlook might be one that limits the scope for the central bank to stay on the tightening path. And the firm argues that it

Development process during the 14th ‘five-year plan’ period is “extremely unusual and extraordinary” China’s economic strength and comprehensive national strength has jumped to a whole new level To make greater efforts to protect and improve people’s livelihood To continue to expand domestic demand, optimise supply conditions Will implement more active and promising macro policies And

Prior was +0.5% Private construction +0.5% Residential construction +1.5% Non-residential construction -0.7% Public construction -0.5% m/m Public construction +3.6% y/y Given the jumps in shares of CAT and DE, there better be some construction spending in the pipeline. The annualized rate in the report is $2,168.8 billion, which is down 0.4% from last December. Private

Prior -0.5%; revised to -0.4% Swiss economic output bounces back in the final quarter of last year, after a drag in the third quarter. The decline was largely due to a big fall in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, but that has now rebounded (+1.9%) in Q4 2025. Domestic demand conditions (+0.5%) held up and

UK political developments are looking set to return into the picture, especially with the latest happening in Manchester. The Gorton and Denton by-election saw a rather seismic result, with Labour losing a seat that they have held for nearly a century. For some context, the by-election was triggered after MP Andrew Gwynne resigned due to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices surged yesterday after early reports suggested the third round of US–Iran talks had broken down, with Iran reportedly rejecting US demands. Later in the day, however, new headlines indicated that the discussions had actually made significant progress and that another round was scheduled for next week. The prices pulled back on

Prior was +2.6% GDP -0.2% q/q vs +0.6% prior Real GDP increased 1.7% in 2025 The number might not be as bad as it looks as the fourth quarter decrease was largely due to withdrawals of business inventories following inventory accumulations in the third quarter. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

U.S. equity futures are under pressure this morning, with the Nasdaq (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES) both down 0.9%, while the Russell 2000 (RTY) is lagging further with a 1.3% drop. While the “Magnificent 7” are seeing modest declines led by Microsoft (-2.5%), the real story is a violent resumption of selling in the software

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight is going to be the German inflation data both the state readings and the national CPI. We will also get the French and Spanish inflation figures, but the German data is generally more market-moving because it carries more weight in the Eurozone CPI calculations. The German

TGIF. The USD is little changed to start the North American session as traders await the US January PPI report at 8:30 AM ET. Expectations are for a +0.3% MoM increase, while the YoY rate is forecast to ease to 2.6% from 3.0%. The dollar is trading mixed against the major currency pairs — EURUSD,

Block’s AI-explicit workforce reset, rewarded with a ~25% after-hours pop. May WILL become the template other CEOs copy next. Block will cut 4,000+ roles, taking headcount from 10k+ to just under 6k (nearly half). Management framed the move explicitly as an AI-enabled operating model: smaller, higher-talent teams using AI to automate more work. The market

Japan’s Katayama flags FX “urgency” as Takaichi fiscal push keeps yen pressured USD/CNY rebounds as PBOC scraps FX risk reserve ratio to cool yuan rally – recap Japan capital CPI slips under BOJ target in policy test USD/CNY & USD/CNH jump as PBoC cuts FX RRR to zero, cooling yuan gains PBOC sets USD/ CNY

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary: Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan is watching the yen’s slide “with a strong sense of urgency” and is in close communication with the US. The warning lands as PM Sanae Takaichi pushes a more expansionary fiscal stance that markets see as yen-negative at the margin. Takaichi has also nominated two dovish-leaning BOJ board

Tokyo core inflation dips below 2%, but firm underlying prices keep BOJ tightening bias intact. Summary: Tokyo February headline CPI: 1.6% y/y (exp 1.4%) Core (ex fresh food): 1.8% y/y (exp 1.7%, prior 2.0%) Core-core (ex fresh food & energy): 2.5% y/y (exp 2.3%, prior 2.4%) Core inflation slips below BOJ’s 2% target for first

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold got stuck in another consolidation as the bullish momentum remains weak amid conflicting signals. Yesterday, it looked like the third round of US-Iran talks went bad as we got reports of Iran rejecting US demands. The markets went into risk-off, eventually supporting gold prices. Later on, we got reports that the talks

Prior +2.3% HICP +2.5% vs +2.3% y/y expected Prior +2.4% The main thing to watch is core annual inflation and that is seen at 2.7%, a step up from the 2.6% reading in January. The trend for core prices is looking rather dicey for Spain as it is moving upwards since the middle of last

Prior +0.5% French Q4 GDP is confirmed at +0.2% q/q, reflecting slight growth in the final quarter of last year. This leads to overall GDP being 0.9% for the year 2025, which is slightly softer than the 1.1% growth in 2024. Looking at the overall breakdown for the year, domestic demand conditions held up well

Prior +0.3% HICP +1.1% vs +0.7% y/y expected Prior +0.4% The bigger jump in the annual estimates is largely tied to base effects, as electricity prices had fallen more sharply in February 2025. That being said, the monthly estimates also show a rebound in prices with headline inflation up 0.8% in February. That follows the

Netflix has opted not to increase its bid for Warner Bros., stepping away from the deal. Shares of Netflix surged as much as 13% in after-hours trading, while the company will receive a $2.8 billion breakup fee following its withdrawal. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq sold off yesterday after early reports suggested the third round of US–Iran talks had broken down, with Iran reportedly rejecting US demands. Later in the day, however, new headlines indicated that the discussions had actually made significant progress and that another round was scheduled for next week. This kind of back-and-forth

The other readings released around the same time (updated on the go): North Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.8% vs +2.0% y/y prior Saxony CPI +1.9% vs +2.1% y/y prior Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI +1.8% vs +2.1% y/y prior The early indications point to headline annual inflation softening by a bit more than the January readings. At the balance,

Summary: PBOC will cut FX risk reserve ratio to 0% from 20%, effective March 2 Move reverses a September 2022 tightening aimed at curbing yuan losses Lower ratio reduces cost of USD buying via forwards USD/CNH jumped to 6.8599 (+0.3%) after the announcement Seen as a step to slow recent yuan strength after sharp gains

Summary: PBOC cut FX risk reserve ratio to 0% from 20%, effective March 2 Move reduces cost of betting against yuan via forwards USD/CNY midpoint held at 6.9228, defying expectations for fresh lows USD/CNH rebounded as traders pared yuan-long positions Analysts see USD/CNY stabilising in 6.90–6.95 range China’s central bank has signalled that the rapid

Data only, I’ll have more to come on this, details and analysis, separately. Japan January: Retail Sales +1.8% y/y expected -0.4%, prior -0.9% Industrial Production +2.2% m.m expected 5.3%, prior -0.1% Manufacturers see: February output -0.5% m/m prior forecast -4.3% March output -2.6% m/m This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s central bank will cut the foreign-exchange risk reserve ratio for forward FX sales to 0% from 20%, effective March 2, 2026, aiming to enhance currency market development and support companies’ exchange-rate hedging needs. The PBOC said it will continue encouraging financial institutions to strengthen hedging services while maintaining the renminbi broadly stable at a

This is just the data, I’ll have more, details and analysis, to come on this separately. Tokyo February 2026 CPI y/y Headline 1.6% expected 1.4%, prior Excluding fresh food 1.8% expected 1.7%, prior 2.0%) Excluding Fresh Food & Energy 2.5% expected 2.3%, prior 2.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The GBPUSD dipped below its 200-hour moving average during the European session but rebounded into the US morning. That recovery, however, ran out of steam ahead of the session highs. When price rolled back below the 200-hour MA (1.3521) and then the 100-hour MA (1.35125), sellers reasserted control and downside momentum accelerated. The pair extended

The AUDUSD is one of the larger movers today, down -0.46%, pressured by a broader risk-off tone as US equities slide. Nvidia’s earnings failed to extend yesterday’s upside momentum, and that weighed on commodity-linked and higher-beta currencies like the Aussie. Technically, the pair also failed where it mattered most. The Asian session high stalled below

We can now see that our efforts to bring inflation down have been effective We continue to expect inflation to stabilise at our 2% target in the medium-term We therefore decided to keep key ECB interest rates unchanged at our monetary policy meeting earlier this month We will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting

Bitcoin surged roughly 6% yesterday, but today the tone has shifted. The price is currently down about -1.75%, giving back a portion of those gains as sellers lean against key resistance. The turning point came right where it mattered. On the hourly chart, yesterday’s rally stalled at the February 16 high, a clear resistance level.

High-yield 3.790% WI level at the time of the auction 3.790% Tail 0.0 basis points vs 0.4 basis point six-month averages Bid to cover 2.50X vs 6 month average of 2.46X Dealers 10.4% versus 11.4% six-month average Directs 26% versus 26.0% six-month average Indirects 63.6% vs 62.6% six-month average This article was written by Greg

Nvidia put its best foot forward with a big earnings beat but it isn’t enough for the market. Shares were up around 1% in the pre-market but opened lower and are now down almost 5%. The drop is spreading beyond the company and the Nasdaq is down 1.7% and it’s now even hitting FX with

Japanese media with the news drop. I’ll have more to come on this separately. Under some pressure: The Japanese Yen sinks as PM Takaichi signals opposition to further BoJ rate hikes This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It’s nice to wrap up the trading week with it being the final day of the month. And interestingly enough, did you realise that the March calendar is a repeat of February (only with the additional 3 days). In February trading, the dollar has been rather resilient after struggling towards the end of last year.

If you want to know how talks are going between Iran and the USA then you don’t need to look any further than the intraday WTI crude oil chart. It was lower earlier on some profit taking ahead of talks but since the talks ended, it’s been one-way traffic higher. Reports continue to highlight that

The problem with being all show is that eventually you have to deliver real results. Earlier today there was a Politico report about Howard Lutnick and how the vast majority of his $18 trillion in touted investment deals into the US is basically smoke-and-mirrors, AI investment, or a repackaging of things that were already announced.

Takata says Japan is near 2% inflation “mission accomplished,” backing further gradual BoJ normalisation. — In summary, BoJ Policy Board member Hajime Takata argues Japan is close to meeting the 2% price-stability goal, with the deflationary “norm” largely broken. He sees the global backdrop shifting in 2026 toward stronger growth as monetary and fiscal settings

The U.S. Treasury sold $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 3.615%: WI level at the time of the auction 3.608% Tail 0.7 basis points v 6 month average up 0.3 basis pointss Bid to cover 2.32X versus 6 month average of 2.36X Dealers 12.8% versus 6 month average of 10.1%

NVIDIA delivered a monster Q4, posting record revenue of $68.1 billion — comfortably ahead of the $66.2 billion consensus estimate — with earnings of $1.62 per share (non-GAAP). Revenue surged 73% year-over-year, driven almost entirely by the data center juggernaut, which pulled in $62.3 billion and now accounts for 91% of total sales. But the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver pulled all the way back into a key swing level around the 92.00 handle as some renewed tariff uncertainty and the risk of a military escalation between US and Iran has kept the market supported. Nonetheless, the bullish momentum from the Friday’s US Supreme Court decision seems to have already waned given

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices stabilized after last week’s sharp surge, which was driven by fears of a possible military escalation over the weekend. Attention is now turning to the third round of US–Iran nuclear talks taking place in Geneva today. Based on the developments so far, the prospects for an agreement appear slim. In fact,

Reuters report that Toyota prepares potential $19bn share unwind in major governance reform signal. Summary: Toyota is preparing a potential ¥3 trillion (~$19bn) share sale via financial institutions to unwind cross-shareholdings, sources told Reuters. The plan could take place as early as 2026 but remains subject to change. Toyota may use buybacks to absorb shares;

Prior was 206K (revised to 208K) Four-week moving average 220.25K vs 219.50K last week Continuing claims 1.833M vs 1,858M expected Prior continuing claims 1.864M revised from 1.869M The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 14 were in Iowa (+377), Michigan (+105), Florida (+84), and Nevada (+1). The largest decreases were in

Prior -12.4 Economic confidence 98.3 vs 99.8 expected Prior 99.4; revised to 99.3 Industrial confidence -7.1 vs -6.1 expected Prior -6.8 Services confidence 5.0 vs 7.5 expected Prior 7.2 Slight delay in the release by the source. Euro area economic sentiment drops slightly in February, keeping below the long-term average score of 100 still. The

Takata warns of inflation overshoot, reinforcing expectations of further BOJ tightening and lifting the yen. Summary: BOJ board member Hajime Takata warned of inflation overshoot risks. Repeated call for gradual further rate hikes. Said Japan has effectively achieved the 2% inflation target. Flagged rising medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Remarks came after PM Sanae Takaichi

Bitcoin and Ether futures cool off after the rebound as traders watch key acceptance zones Bitcoin futures (BTC1!) and Ether futures (ETH1!) are both in a “pause after the push” phase. The daily charts still reflect a rebound attempt that is stalling under overhead supply, while the 4H footprint view adds an important layer: the

Sector Overview: Mixed Movements Across Key Sectors Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a mixed picture across sectors, with distinct movements shaping the day’s trading landscape. The technology sector demonstrates resilience, while semiconductors experience notable declines. Let’s delve into the details. 📈 Technology Sector: A Bright SpotThe technology sector shines brightly today. Microsoft (MSFT) gains 0.86%

The USDCAD is pushing higher after a move lower in the Asian Pacific session stalled ahead of this week’s low near 1.3649. Sellers had an opportunity to press the pair to new weekly lows but failed to generate follow-through. That inability to extend lower invited buyers back in. The bounce has now carried the price

Prior was -$9.68 (revised to -$5.27B) 14th consecutive quarter of current account deficits Trade in goods and services balance posted a $3.1 billion deficit in the fourth quarter vs $4.4 billion in Q3 Goods deficit $4.5B vs $9.5B prior Foreign investors acquired a record $33.6 billion of federal government bonds Canadian investors acquired $18.5 billion

To be fair, she could use better choice of words here if she wants to sound more assuring. But in all likelihood, it looks like she wants to maintain optionality in her decision. How typical of a central banker these days, eh? The key word in her answer that is baseline. As we all know,

The US dollar is kicking off the session mixed. EURUSD and GBPUSD are lower (firmer USD), while USDJPY is also lower (softer USD vs JPY). As we head toward the North American session and the end of the week, the focus shifts to whether these pairs can break out of tight ranges and establish clearer

The bar was already set incredibly high for Nvidia going into this week’s earnings call, as it has been for many quarters now. And once again, the chip giant defies concerns to the AI trade with a strong triple beat so to speak. All three of revenue, earnings, and guidance hit their market and then

Major US indices close higher for the 2nd consecutive day Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says will examine the impact of rate hikes so far Bitcoin Technicals: Bitcoin is up sharply today. What did the rally do to the technicals? Israeli press: There is a high chance of an attack on Iran Fed’s Musalem: Inflation

The S&P 500 remains supported by positive macro backdrop, but downside risks linger US futures hold caution ahead of the open later Silver retreats from a key level as focus turns to US-Iran talks and the NFP report Eurozone February final consumer confidence -12.2 vs -12.2 prelim ECB president Lagarde: My baseline is that I

The big story in the equities market came after the close yesterday, with Nvidia delivering a major beat in their earnings report across the board. That saw shares of the tech giant rose by over 3% for a brief period in after-hours trading before settling with more modest gains. In turn, broader market sentiment also

Does not think that the BOJ is behind the curve for now But want to ensure BOJ doesn’t fall behind the curve in addressing inflation risks Difficult to determine the desirable pace of rate hikes and also the terminal rate Pace of future rate hikes will depend on economic, price, market developments at the time

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar continues to bounce around potentially due to some uncertainty around tariffs after the US Supreme Court ruled against the previous levies. It’s pretty clear at this point that tariffs are here to stay as Trump reimposed them using different laws. Overall, not much has changed. The price action remains

Singapore MAS survey: 2026 GDP seen at 3.6%, April tightening odds rise China Two Sessions 2026: growth target, fiscal stance and 15th plan signals in focus Toyota plans $19bn share unwind in landmark governance reform move – Reuters Recap – BOJ hawk Takata flags inflation overshoot risk, yen strengthened on hike signals Bank of Korea

Israel’s Ynet reports that US strikes on Iran are increasingly likely. The report citing Israeli diplomatic sources estimates that the new Iranian proposals do not meet the American threshold conditions. One of the sources estimated there is a high chance the US will launch an attack. “It’s hard for us to see the Americans walking

BOJ governor Ueda came out today with a bold statement, at least by his standards, in saying that their upcoming policy meetings in March and April will be live. The timing of that remark says a lot as it comes after his meeting with prime minister Takaichi, as well as the report yesterday that Takaichi

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases that won’t change anything for the market. The focus today will likely be on the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, which are seen as the last-ditch effort to prevent a conflict.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 320.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% in open market operations today. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 rebounded from the monthly lows as risk sentiment improved. There was no real catalyst for the move as the market continues to trade in a range amid uncertainty on the macro and geopolitical fronts. The short-term uncertainty caused by the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs might have weighed on

There are just a couple to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are all for EUR/USD lined up in between the 1.1800 to 1.1825 level. Given the lack of key catalysts in the session ahead, the expiries could act as bookends for price action in European

The ANZ Business Outlook survey is a well-regarded monthly survey tracking the sentiment of hundreds of New Zealand businesses concerning the economy’s future. It measures confidence, hiring, investment, and inflation expectations, with findings recently showing, for instance, a 30-year high in December 2025. From the Reserve Bank of Australia we get its ‘Bulletin’. The Reserve

Summary: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says markets are misjudging AI’s impact on software firms. Huang argues AI will enhance, not replace, companies like ServiceNow. Q4 revenue surged 73% y/y to $68.13bn, beating estimates. Q1 guidance of $78bn ±2% significantly topped expectations. Strong outlook counters concerns of an AI hardware spending bubble Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang

This is ‘just the data’ post. Australian Private Capital Expenditure Q4 2025 +0.4% q/q expected 0%, prior +6.4% CapExp for 2025-26, estimate 5 is AUD199.3bn prior 191.3bn Plant Machinery CapEx -1.7% q.q prior +11.5% Building CapExp +2.3% q/q prior +2.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BOK’s new dot plot reinforces a 2.50% hold bias, with only a small minority pricing a cut. Summary: More from the Bank of Korea’s Feb 26 decision: the hold at 2.50% was unanimous. The new six-month “dot plot” shows the board’s centre of gravity is a prolonged hold. 16 of 21 dots sit at 2.50%,

China’s Two Sessions (4–11 March) is shaping up as a “targets + 15th plan signalling” event, more about direction and policy bias than a single mega-stimulus headline. Summary: China’s “Two Sessions” will open in Beijing on 4 March (CPPCC) and 5 March 2026 (NPC), with the headline policy statement coming via the Government Work Report

BOK holds at 2.50% and unveils Fed-style dot plot as policy pause deepens. Summary: Bank of Korea held its benchmark rate at 2.50%, as expected. Decision unanimous among seven-member board. 2026 GDP forecast at 2.0%; 2027 growth seen at 1.8%. 2025 inflation forecast at 2.2%; 2027 inflation at 2.0%. BOK introduces quarterly “dot plot”-style forward

With gold now angling for a renewed push above $5,200, ANZ continues to argue for a more bullish rhetoric for the precious metal amid recent developments. Most of the overarching themes underpinning gold have been the same since last year, but ANZ is adding one more to the list. That being a “less crowded” investor

IMF sees solid US growth but warns rising deficits and debt heighten vulnerabilities. Summary: IMF completes US Article IV review 2026 growth seen at 2.4% Employment growth to slow structurally Unemployment near 4% in 2026–27 Core PCE at 2% by early 2027 Deficits seen at 7–8% of GDP Debt projected at 140% of GDP by

Ueda keeps tightening bias intact, flags further hikes if outlook firms. Summary: Ueda reiterates conditional tightening bias Rates to rise if outlook materialises Underlying inflation still below 2% Policy aimed at preventing overshoot BoJ says not “behind the curve” Inflation expected to re-accelerate No change to January projections Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforced

Summary: Q1 revenue guidance $76.44B–$79.56B vs $72.78B est Q4 revenue $68.13B, +73% y/y, beat vs $65.91B Data centre revenue $62.3B, +75% y/y, ahead of estimates Gaming revenue $3.7B, below consensus Gross margin 75.2%, remains exceptionally strong Adjusted operating income $46.11B, +81% y/y Free cash flow $34.9B vs $15.5B y/y FY27 tax rate seen 17%–19% Nvidia

IMF’s Georgieva says tariffs lifted goods inflation, backs gradual Fed easing and deficit action. Summary: Goods inflation partly tariff-driven Fed funds at 3.25%–3.5% consistent with full employment US debt requires determined fiscal action IMF shares concern on trade deficits Current account deficit “too big” No formal view yet on tariff court ruling Court implications to

Confidence remains high, but rising cost and wage pressures keep inflation risks alive. Summary: Business confidence fell 5 points to 59.2 but remains elevated. Own-activity outlook improved slightly to 52.6. Pricing intentions eased marginally but remain high at 53%. Cost expectations rose to 79.4% — highest since mid-2023. Wage expectations lifted to 3.01%, highest since

Economists upgrade Singapore’s 2026 growth outlook and are increasingly split on whether the MAS will tighten policy at its April 2026 review. Summary: Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) Q1 survey (released 25 February 2026) shows economists lift 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.6% (prev. 2.3%). Nearly 47.4% now expect a policy tightening at the April

Ueda keeps March and April rate-hike window open, says wage gains could speed target timing. Earlier here, recapping now ICYMI. Summary: Ueda keeps tightening bias intact March and April meetings live Target timing could be brought forward Strong wage talks key upside risk No need to wait for April Tankan BOJ says not behind curve

Australian business investment edges higher as renewables drive capex upgrade. Summary: Q4 private capex +0.4% q/q (0% exp), prior +6.4 (data post here) Annual growth accelerated to +7.8% y/y. Buildings & structures +2.3%; equipment -1.7%. Non-mining investment at record high in real terms. 2025/26 capex estimate lifted to A$199.3bn (+4.3% revision). First 2026/27 estimate A$158.4bn

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The price of Bitcoin is staging an aggressive rebound today after sliding to its lowest level since February 6 just yesterday. The low reached $62,525, marking a key test of channel support. Since then, buyers have stepped in decisively. Bitcoin is currently higher by roughly $5,000, a gain of 7.8% on the day. That is

Major US indices close higher for the 2nd consecutive day. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index with a rise of 1.26%. The S&P index rose by 0.81% and the Dow industrial average rose by 0.63%. The Russell 2000 rose by 0.41%. The gains come ahead of the earnings from Salesforce, and Nvidia after

My baseline outlook is economy grows at or above 2% Financial conditions are accommodative, there is deregulation and fiscal tailwinds Half of excess inflation comes from tariffs, this will fade as the year progresses Job market is vulnerable to an increase in layoffs Inflation could stay higher for longer but that’s not my baseline Policy

I expect China tariff level to remain in place We don’t intend to escalate tariffs on China Trade law on discrimination against US could be helpful in some situations New trade investigations will look at excess industrial capacity, forced labour in supply chains Tariffs will go up to 15% for some countries There will be

The average tariff rate on U.S. imports jumped from 2.6% to 13% over the course of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. On paper, that kind of increase should have pushed inflation higher. Instead, headline inflation actually eased from 2.9% year over year in December 2024 to 2.7% in December 2025.

Bitcoin is up 6% today as it accelerates higher in North American trade. The gains have traced out and inverted head and shoulders bottom that targets just above $70,000. I also take this is a good sign for the risk trade, Nasdaq and software stocks. The AI disruption trade got too far ahead of itself

The USDCAD is currently locked in a high-stakes technical battle. While the overall bias has shifted back to the upside, the “bulls” are facing a significant ceiling that must be cleared to sustain a long-term rally. After a roller-coaster week driven by U.S. tariff headlines and legal rulings, the price action has settled into a

Prior 0.0% GDP Y/Y 0.4% vs 0.4% preliminary Prior 0.3% No changes to the preliminary estimates. The German economy has been recovering gradually due to the expansionary fiscal policies and the ECB rate cuts. The momentum should hold in the first quarter given the strong data we had so far, unless there is a major

Statistics Canada out with the non-residential capital and repair expenditures report for 2026 intentions, and the headline is a deceleration in spending growth. Total capex by businesses, governments and institutions is expected to rise $14.4 billion in 2026, down from the $17.4 billion increase seen in 2025. The composition matters here though — machinery and

While the market has faced significant headwinds recently, there are growing indicators of a serious potential turnaround in crypto as the following analysis of current trends will show. Despite the fact that it is shaping up to be another rough week for cryptocurrencies, much of the downward pressure stems from specific technical liquidations rather than

Generic and non specific comments on investment and manufacturing (manufacturing jobs are lower so far under Trump!). He does mention lower drug prices. Whole stack of stuff not of relevance to markets. Excerpts provided by WSJ (gated). His central economic policy has collapsed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese Yen extends losses as Takaichi’s opposition to rate hikes weighs on the currency Renewed uncertainty around tariffs weighs on the Indian Rupee amid Trump threats Eurozone January final CPI +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y prelim The Australian dollar weakens as RBA’s Bullock signals patience on judging policy Gold’s momentum wanes as focus turns to US-Iran

We recognized in February that inflation was too high The economy is in quite a good position, policy judgments are difficult Have to be patient in judging policy There’s been some weakness in the Australian dollar after her comments. It looks like she doesn’t want to overreact to near-term data and take a more patient

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 409.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% in open market operations today. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump says Iran advancing missile, nuclear programs despite negotiations Japan govmt nominates new BOJ board members as rate-hike path comes into focus SOTU Trump: Says tariffs stay despite Supreme Court loss, pivots to new global levy Nikkei hits record high as AI fears fade and yen weakens Oil holds near seven-month highs ahead of US-Iran

I find David Tepper’s investment in Whirlpool to be an interesting one and I’ve written about it before. He’s a macro investor who has done it better than almost anyone at Appaloosa . In Q3, he disclosed a nearly 10% stake in the appliance maker but so far it hasn’t proven to be a great

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlights are the final German Q4 GDP and the final Eurozone CPI report. The preliminary German Q4 GDP report beat expectations showing a 0.3% Q/Q growth. The preliminary Eurozone CPI figures saw headline CPI Y/Y coming at 1.7%, while the core CPI Y/Y printed at 2.2%. The

The Japanese yen has been declining against most major currencies throughout the entire session as Takaichi’s opposition for further rate hikes put downward pressure on the currency. There’s nothing in the near-term that could support the yen, unless we get a very hot Tokyo CPI report on Friday. As things stand, the yen should continue

FX Kickstart: Major Pairs Stalled in “Non-Trending” Ranges The US Dollar is starting the North American session on a mixed note. While the Greenback is lower against the Yen, it has found some footing against the Euro and Pound. Greg Michalowski highlights a market currently lacking a clear trend, with price action largely dictated by

OPEC meets this weekend and Reuters sources say they will consider a 137K bpd oil output hike. OPEC had paused production hikes in the first quarter of the year after a series of boosts last year. The report says OPEC is preparing for peak summer demand and that the hike will come from the eight

In an exclusive interview with Reuters, former Bank of Japan chief, Haruhiko Kuroda expressed concerns about potential inflationary upswing coming from Takaichi’s big spending plans and a weak yen. Kuroda is famous for leading the BoJ during the Abenomics era. He launched a massive monetary stimulus in 2013 in an attempt to bring Japan out

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary: Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed to a new record high on Wednesday, buoyed by a rebound in technology shares as concerns about artificial intelligence disruption eased and the yen weakened. The benchmark Nikkei rose 1.4% in early trade to 58,100 and above, surpassing its previous peak set earlier this month following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s

EUR/USD 1.1900 (EUR 5.09 bn) 1.1850 (EUR 2.19 bn) 1.1800 (EUR 3.91 bn) 1.1750 (EUR 1.82 bn) USD/JPY 156.00 (US$ 2.92 bn) 155.00 (US$ 1.80 bn) GBP/USD 1.3550 (GBP 552.83 mn) 1.3475 (GBP 448.12 mn) USD/CHF 0.7790 (US$ 560.71 mn) 0.7725 (US$ 787.67 mn) USD/CAD 1.3650 (US$ 646.00 mn) AUD/USD 0.7150 (AUD 1.45 bn) 0.7100

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold pared back Monday’s gains yesterday as the price pulled back to retest the broken 5100 level. The bullish momentum from the Friday’s US Supreme Court decision seems to have already waned, which is something we expected given no changes to the big picture. In fact, Trump has already imposed new tariffs under

Prior +2.0% Core CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim Prior +2.3% No changes to the preliminary estimates. Compared with December 2025, annual inflation fell in twenty-three Member States, remained stable in one and rose in three. In January 2026, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+1.45%), followed by

Firm January inflation keeps the RBA on a tightening footing, lifting May hike expectations and supporting the Australian dollar. Summary: Headline CPI 0.4% m/m; 3.8% y/y Trimmed mean 3.4% y/y, above forecasts Goods inflation firm; services still elevated Housing major contributor May hike odds increased Separately, construction data weak Australia’s January inflation data came in

Via oilprice.com: — Oil markets swung in both directions on Tuesday but ultimately closed lower as signs of improving US-Iran relations weighed on prices. WTI and Brent futures were volatile overnight, briefly edging higher during the European session amid limited oil-specific headlines. Sentiment shifted sharply, however, after Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Tehran is

Harvard-led research suggests AI can replicate most active-fund trading patterns, leaving true alpha concentrated in a smaller set of non-routine decisions. Summary: AI model predicted 71% of fund trades Neural network trained on 1990–2023 data Unpredictable trades linked to outperformance Routine activity appears systematic Larger, competitive funds less predictable Active-fee justification under scrutiny (ps. I

Japan’s latest BOJ nominations highlight how board composition could shape the pace of future rate hikes under Takaichi’s administration. Summary: Government nominates Toichiro Asada, Ayano Sato to the Bank of Japan monetary policy board Both appointments subject to parliamentary approval Changes come amid gradual BOJ tightening Board balance key to future rate path Market wary

Japan’s services inflation stayed sticky at 2.6%, reinforcing wage pass-through risks and keeping the BOJ on a tightening bias. Summary: Corporate services prices +2.6% y/y in January, unchanged from December’s 2.6% Construction and temp staffing drove increases Gauge supports view of wage-driven inflation persistence BOJ ended stimulus in 2024 Policy rate lifted to 0.75% in

Oil is pinned near seven-month highs as traders weigh US-Iran diplomacy against conflict risk and a potentially heavy US crude stock build. Summary: Brent/WTI hover near seven-month highs US-Iran talks slated Thursday in Geneva Conflict risk sustains a risk premium Iran remains key OPEC producer API shows big crude build Gasoline/distillates reportedly declined EIA data

Martin Schlegel is the Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). He took over as chairman in 2024 and leads the SNB’s three-member Governing Board, which sets Switzerland’s monetary policy. He spoke Tuesday. Schlegel downplayed short-term deflation risks, keeps medium-term inflation focus, and leaves FX intervention on the table. Summary: SNB

Trump warned Iran is advancing missile and nuclear ambitions despite negotiations, demanding a clear pledge against nuclear weapons in a record-length State of the Union. Summary: Trump accuses Iran of advancing missile capabilities Claims Tehran pursuing longer-range systems Says negotiations ongoing but incomplete Says he prefers diplomacy towards a solution Seeks explicit renunciation of nuclear

Trump is reframing the Supreme Court tariff loss as a detour, not a derailment, as his team shifts the broad tariff base to Section 122 while keeping key sector and China-related tariffs intact. Summary: Trump addressed tariffs during his SOTU address Supreme Court ruled IEEPA doesn’t authorise tariffs (Feb 20, 2026) White House pivoted to

Strategists see near-term consolidation for the Nikkei before earnings growth and foreign inflows drive a break above 60,000 by 2027. Summary: Nikkei seen at 57,500 by mid-2026 Forecast lifted from November poll 60,750 projected by mid-2027 Foreign inflows accelerating AI theme supportive but selective Correction risk viewed as limited Japan’s Nikkei 225 is expected to

Goldman sees Japan’s rally extending on political stability and reform momentum — but sustainable gains hinge on ROE delivery. Summary: Takaichi’s landslide boosts political stability History suggests post-election multiple expansion Governance reform key to next leg ROE improvement central to re-rating Fiscal concerns easing post-election Foreign positioning improving, not stretched Reform delivery now critical Japanese

USD/CAD momentarily touched the highest level since January 26 today before fading back to unchanged on the day. The pair has been climbing for the past two weeks as the US dollar recovers. This is an interesting level for the pair as it tests resistance from the Feb 5 high of 1.3724. Some things to

This is just a post for data, I’ll have details and analysis posted separately. Here we go, added: Australia CPI beats estimates, lifting RBA hike odds and boosting Aussie dollar Background: Australia January CPI preview: core inflation steady, electricity lifts headline This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The focus is the Australian CPI data for January: Australia January CPI preview: core inflation steady, electricity lifts headline Trump will speak later. State of the Union speech. His centrepiece economic policy has completely collapsed. He’s scrambling to recover: Trump considers new Section 232 tariffs after Supreme Court ruling This article was written by Eamonn

The NZDUSD has rebounded in the North American session after sellers failed to sustain a break below the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.5945. The pair briefly dipped to 0.5943, but the move lacked follow-through, triggering a bounce that shifted short-term momentum back toward the buyers. That recovery gathered pace once price

High-yield 3.455% WI level at the time of the auction Tail 0.1 basis points versus 6 month average of -0.5 basis points Bid to cover 2.63X vs 6 mother average of 2.63X Dealers 9.81% versus 6 month average of 10.7% Directs 34.3% versus 6 month average of 32.0% Indirects 55.9% versus 6 month average of

The GBPUSD continues to trade within a relatively tight consolidation range. Yesterday, the pair reached a high of 1.35344 and a low of 1.3474. Today’s price action marginally extended beyond both extremes, with the low dipping to 1.3471 and the high pushing to 1.3536. However, despite those slight breaks, the overall 65-pip range remains narrow

Goods price inflation was lower than expected, possibly reflecting China exports Last week’s headline inflation was pretty much where we thought we’d be Pill: Bearing down on inflationary pressures remains necessary This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Globally renowned broker XM, with over 15 million clients worldwide, has officially obtained a license from the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) of Kenya. This achievement marks a significant milestone in XM’s strategic expansion across Africa and reinforces its commitment to providing a secure and regulated trading environment for local investors. The granting of the CMA

The US Treasury will auction 2 year notes. Below is some color from BMO: Today’s $69 bn 2-year auction comes amid the bond-bullish tone-shift that has defined the last several weeks of price action in the Treasury market. While there isn’t a compelling outright discount with WI 2-year rates at 3.45%, there is a sizable

The USDCAD is pushing higher in early North American trading and is now testing the February high at 1.37241. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the late-January high at 1.37383, followed by the 61.8% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.37572. Yesterday, the pair

Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are rebounding today after yesterday’s declines of -1.04% and -1.13%, respectively. However, the recovery rally is already running into technical resistance, keeping the broader bias in question. For the NASDAQ, the 100-hour moving average — currently near 22,848 — is acting as a near-term ceiling. Price briefly pushed

Prior month -6 Details: Composite manufacturing index fell to -10 in February from -6 in January. Estimate was -8 Shipments dropped to -13 from -5 last month New orders decreased to -9 from -6 lat month Employment edged down to -7 from -6 last month Local business conditions index declined to -15 from -8 last

The USDCHF is trading in a tight consolidation today, confined to a modest 35-pip range as the market searches for its next directional catalyst. On the topside, price action has respected the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.7769, with today’s high stalling just shy of that level at 0.7765. Sellers continue to

The US may be heading towards structurally higher unemployment, something the central bank cannot offset The Fed has maintained focus on economic outcomes across groups; this data is important in understanding labour market slack Hope that guardrails protecting Fed independence will be maintained Even with rising productivity, Fed needs to keep focus on inflation; responding

Prior was +1.4% House price index +0.5% m/m vs 0.0% prior Home price data from the FHFA: Prices +1.8% y/y vs +1.9% prior (revised to +2.1%) Prices 0.1% m/m vs +0.6% prior The US housing market’s deceleration has been the story for months now, and the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite continues to tell it clearly. The

The Swiss franc is not one that is talked about too often but as mentioned last week, it is certainly one key spot to take note of in the major currencies space. If not for geopolitical tensions, then at least in terms of added trade uncertainty now. That will just pile on the negativity to

Home Depot’s fiscal fourth quarter results paint a familiar picture: the American homeowner remains cautious, selective, and increasingly uncertain about the macro backdrop. The retailer posted $38.2 billion in revenue for the quarter ended February 1, a 3.8% decline year-over-year — though roughly $2.5 billion of that gap is explained by a missing 14th week

The AUDUSD ran into willing sellers earlier in the session at the 200-hour moving average currently at 0.70681, with bears leaning against that level on three separate tests. That repeated rejection kept sellers firmly in short-term control and helped fuel a downside extension into the European session early US session. The move lower pushed the

Prior was the lowest reading since 2014 at 84.5 Details: Present situation 120.0 vs 113.7 prior Expectations 72.0 vs 65.1 prior Jobs plentiful % vs 23.1% prior Jobs hard to get vs 20.8% prior The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index traced a dramatic arc through 2025, defined by a steep erosion of sentiment tied to

Tech stocks wobble while consumer electronics thrive The US stock market showcases a mix of performances today, with notable fluctuations in the technology and consumer electronics sectors. Investors at InvestingLive.com should remain astute as dynamic market forces present both opportunities and risks. 📊 Technology Sector: Struggling for Stability Software and Semiconductors: A difficult day for

Reserve Bank of Australia economist Plumb Will continue to focus on quarterly CPI data for forecasting Have also been analysing underlying inflation measures using monthly CPI Remain focused on quarterly trimmed mean, any change some way off Aim to assess which underlying inflation measures from monthly data will be preferred in a post-quarterly CPI world

Well, you can certainly bet that Beijing is smirking and if not laughing with glee over the whole situation. Their hard line stance against Trump looks to be paying off now as the US administration is forced to back down on the high tariffs applied against China. And one can reasonably assume that this will

Gold and silver are both pushing higher today, moving above and away from their key short-term moving averages. Of the two, gold is showing the stronger technical profile. Gold reclaimed its 100-hour moving average last Wednesday and, importantly, has held above it since. Friday’s trade brought renewed upside momentum, and that strength has extended into

AI could trigger most significant reorganization of work in generations Rise in unemployment from AI may not indicate increased slack Current neutral rate possibly higher than pre-pandemic amid soaring AI investment Job displacement may precede job creation as AI transition unfolds Standard monetary policy may not address AI-driven unemployment without stoking inflation Overall unemployment still

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dipped below 6%, and to the lowest level since September 2025. The break marks a meaningful psychological and financial shift for the housing market. Not long ago, rates were pressing toward 7%, and just one year ago the same rate stood at 6.89%. That’s nearly a full percentage

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The resulting policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback, even though nothing has actually changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer

Major US stock indices close lower as markets ponder uncertainty from tariffs RBA Economist Plumb Focuses on CPI for Forecasting Crude oil futures settle at $66.31. Buyers failed to keep momentum going. Mortgage rates fall below 6% for the first time since September 2025 ECB’s Lagarde: Inflation in policy are in a good place Gold.

The dollar is having a bit of a choppy last few sessions, having to deal with geopolitical risks and the Supreme Court decision in shooting down Trump’s tariffs. The former is mostly centering around tensions between US and Iran right now. And despite uncertain and erratic policy handling by the US administration, the dollar isn’t

French business confidence fell roughly two points in February to 97 (unrounded 97.4) after the 99 (unrounded 99.3) reading in January. This puts a dent in the recovery optimism with this being the weakest estimate since October last year. Of note, the business climate continues to hold below the long-term average of 100 still. The

China’s central bank kept benchmark rates unchanged for a ninth month, balancing growth support with yuan stability. Summary: PBOC keeps 1-year LPR at 3.0%, 5-year at 3.5% Ninth consecutive month of unchanged benchmark rates Growth slowed to 4.5% y/y in Q4, weakest since post-Covid reopening Yuan appreciation adds currency-stability considerations Policymakers balancing stimulus needs with

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being a modest-sized one for EUR/USD at the 1.1765 level. It isn’t one that ties to any technical significance, so the impact of the expiries is likely to be less pronounced. If anything, it could just act

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq continues to consolidate near monthly lows as weakness in software stocks has been putting a lid on the index. There’s also been lots of uncertainty on the macro and geopolitical side that’s been keeping the market on edge. The risks we had were the US Supreme Court decision on tariffs, the

Summary: Apple to begin assembling some Mac mini units in Houston in 2026 Production to take place at a Foxconn facility Move aimed at meeting local U.S. demand Majority of Mac mini output to remain in Asia Part of broader supply-chain diversification trend Apple plans to shift part of its Mac mini production to the

The ninth consecutive month without a change. More on the LPRs, and why they don’t matter so much any more, here: Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, February 24, 2026 – China and Japan return This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The onshore yuan hit a 2½-year high as USD/CNY fell below 6.90, with the PBOC signalling greater tolerance for strength. Summary: USD/CNY falls to 6.8954, lowest in 2½ years (since May 2023, so a bit longer) Onshore yuan (CNY) hits fresh multi-year high Shanghai Composite rises 0.8% on market reopen PBOC sets firmer fix at

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The resulting policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback, even though nothing has actually changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer

This relates to their meeting last week here: BOJ governor Ueda says had regular information exchange with Japan prime minister Takaichi It was a short and quick meeting, with it lasting for less than 20 minutes at the time. Yet, it’s still enough for Takaichi to voice her concerns with Ueda on the matter. However,

Rabobank and UBS see the Swiss franc staying firm as safe-haven demand outweighs intervention risks. Summary: Rabobank and UBS expect CHF to stay well supported Safe-haven flows underpinned by strong Swiss fundamentals SNB easing or FX intervention seen as limited in impact EUR/CHF forecast trimmed to 0.91 (3-month, Rabobank), from 0.92 Strong franc a headwind

China’s CSI300 and Shanghai Composite rallied on reopen as investors cheered the U.S. tariff ruling’s potential export relief. Summary: CSI300 +1.4%, Shanghai Composite +1.2% at open Rally follows nine-day mainland holiday Investors cite U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling as positive for exports Hang Seng reverses after Monday’s 2.5% surge Analysts see potential easing of U.S.–China

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the French business confidence data which is not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we get the weekly US ADP jobs data and the US Consumer

It’s a near empty economic calendar today. I was expecting the People’s Bank of China to set its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) yesterday but I was out by 24 hours. Its today. Markets overwhelmingly expect the People’s Bank of China to leave its benchmark lending rates untouched, with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate seen holding

PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead. The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 526bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% in open market operations today. after maturities net drain is 926.4bn yuan, largest in more than 4 months This

The report says that Japan’s ministry of finance is considering revisions to the framework of its existing liquidity-enhancement auctions for JGBs. This is a move that is said to be intended to ease supply pressures on the super-long end of the curve in the bond market. For some context, the liquidity-enhancement auctions are ones that

Apple to move some Mac mini production to Houston in 2026 – WSJ China adds 20 Japanese firms to export control list, tightening dual-use trade China stocks jump as U.S. tariff ruling boosts export hopes USD/CNY drops to 2½-year low as onshore yuan surges China holds loan prime rates steady as growth slows and yuan

China moved to restrict dual-use exports to 20 Japanese entities, a fresh escalation in trade frictions amid already strained bilateral ties. Summary: China’s Commerce Ministry adds 20 Japanese entities to an export control “watch list” Measures ban exports of dual-use items to listed entities without licences Overseas parties also barred from re-transferring China-origin dual-use items

Crude oil futures are settling down $0.17 (-0.26%), but the broader technical picture remains constructive. Earlier today, price pushed to $67.28, the highest level since August 2025, before rotating lower into the close. Even with the pullback, crude is still up roughly 21% from the December low at $55.08, underscoring the strength of the recent

UBS sees gold climbing to USD 6,200 as geopolitics, Fed cuts and tight supply reinforce the bull case. Summary: UBS lifts conviction on gold, targets USD 6,200/oz in coming months Geopolitical risks seen staying elevated amid US–Iran tensions Fed easing cycle expected to continue, pressuring real yields Global gold demand tops 5,000 tonnes in 2025;

After the Supreme Court curtailed key second-term tariffs, the Trump administration is turning to Section 232 to pursue new national security levies. Summary: Administration considering new Section 232 tariffs on six industries Follows 6–3 Supreme Court ruling striking down many levies New 232 tariffs separate from recently announced global 15% levy Steel and aluminium 232

January CPI is set to show electricity-driven headline strength and still-firm core inflation, keeping a May RBA hike in play. Summary: Headline CPI seen at 0.4% m/m (seasonally adjusted) in January Annual inflation forecast at 3.6–3.7% y/y Electricity prices a key upside driver; fuel partly offsets Trimmed mean seen at 0.3% m/m, annual pace steady

The major US stock indices are closing down over 1% with the Dow industrial average down -1.66%. Shares of IBM tumbled -13.13% (that is a bad luck number). Shares of American Express were down -7.21%, and Visa fell -4.57%. Other big losers for the day with declines of over 5% include: CrowdStrike Holdings: -9.88% Snowflake:

ECBs Lagarde: Inflation and policy are in a good place She adds: Completing her term is my baseline. Lagarde’s current term as President of the European Central Bank runs through October 2027. Last week, she said her baseline intention is to complete her full term and remain focused on delivering price stability and policy continuity

Business confidence in Belgium dropped significantly in February, erasing the modest gains seen in January and falling back to levels last seen in May 2025, according to the National Bank of Belgium’s latest survey released today. The overall synthetic curve fell to -13.7 from -8.8 in January, a 4.9-point decline that underscores the fragile nature

The code word for the day is “Uncertainty.” Uncertainty surrounding US tariffs — their scope, timing, and impact on countries, industries, and index components — continues to weigh on markets. With little clarity on what policy will look like today or tomorrow, investors are de-risking. That uncertainty has pushed the broader indices sharply lower, with

USDCAD moved lower alongside the broader USD in the early Asian-Pacific session, extending the decline toward the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.36517. That level — previously broken to the upside — acted as a key technical support zone. Sellers pushed into it, but downside momentum began to stall, signaling profit-taking and

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices rallied all the way back to the resistance around the 66.50 level after a report from Axios suggested that a war between the U.S. and Iran appeared increasingly likely. Traders hedged into the weekend risk driving prices higher. There was no escalation over the weekend, on the contrary, we got some

After the Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s sweeping IEEPA tariffs on Friday, the White House immediately fired back, slapping a 15% global tariff on imports using Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. Global Trade Alert took a look at US tariff rate changes based on a 15% universal tariff (with some exemptions)

General business activity: +0.2 (prev. -1.2) Production: 12.5 (prev. 12.2) New orders: 11.1 (unchanged) Capacity utilization: 11.8 (prev. 6.8) Employment: 7.5 (unchanged) Hours worked: 6.1 (prev. 0.7) Finished goods prices paid: 17.9 (unchanged) Raw materials prices paid: 31.7 (prev. 36.7) Wages and benefits: 31.9 (prev. 17.4) Texas factory activity continued to expand in February, with

Well, the timing of this is quite uncanny. Amid all the speculation surrounding Lagarde’s future, this leak is now popping up and Lagarde is being placed under scrutiny for receiving about €140,000 a year from the BIS as her role as a board member. The Financial Times reports that some ECB employees have voiced their

The USD is lower but off the lowest level. EURUSD Technicals EURUSD moved higher in the Asian session, reclaiming the 100-hour MA at 1.1799, but the rally stalled near strong resistance at 1.1830–1.1832 — the 50% midpoint of the 2026 range (1.1830) and the falling 200-hour MA (1.1832). The failure to break that ceiling shifted

Jan jobs data was a surprise and may be appropriate to hold rates if it continues in Feb Also possible that Jan jobs data was noise and would still argue for a cut in March if Feb jobs data is weak It is possible labor market has pivoted to a more sound footing after a

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1845 level. It isn’t one that holds too much technical significance but could act as a bit of a light ceiling to price action for the session ahead. That as it keeps

Everything about how Europe has negotiated tariffs has been a disaster. They were the one jurisdiction with the market size and diversification to stand up to US tariffs and they folded in pathetic fashion despite the likelihood — now proven — that the US Supreme Court would strike down tariffs. Now they want a do-over

Prior was +2.7% Factory orders ex-transport +1.0% vs +0.2% prior Revisions to durable goods orders: Orders -1.4% vs -1.4% prelim Ex defense -2.4% vs -2.5% prelim Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.8% vs +0.6% prelim This is mostly in-line but note the small improvement in core US orders. It’s tough to find a signal in

The U.S. stock market today presents a mixed picture, with some sectors surprising investors while others face pressure under unexpected dynamics. By examining a comprehensive heatmap of sectors, we see varying levels of performance impacting trading decisions and sentiments. 📊 Sector Overview Technology Sector: This sector is enduring a challenging day. Notably, Microsoft (MSFT) is

It will be a light week in terms of scheduled economic events for the FX market. On Monday, the U.S. will release factory orders m/m and on Tuesday attention will be on the U.K.’s Monetary Policy Report hearings and the U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed manufacturing figures. Wednesday will bring inflation

The news from Friday was of Trump’s tariffs found illegal: investingLive Americas market news wrap: Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs Trump later replaced them with MOAR tariffs: That didn’t take long: Trump increases global tariff to 15% from 10% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The report says that the EU is set to put on hold the ratification process of its trade deal with the US after the latest changes to the US administration’s tariffs policy. Adding that they will be seeking out more details from Washington on what their plans are with the new tariffs in place. I

Headlines: The biggest winners and losers from the latest US tariffs shift US customs say will halt collection of IEEPA tariffs on 24 February US president Trump: The Supreme Court tariffs ruling has given me more power than before EU reportedly to press pause on US trade deal approval amid latest tariffs kerfuffle Is this

To recap, the biggest news hitting markets since Friday is the Supreme Court shooting down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs from April last year. The 6-3 decision now sees those tariffs, enacted under the IEEPA, are deemed unconstitutional/illegal. As such, the US administration has to halt collecting duties related to the tariffs imposed through that. So, what’s

US and Iranian negotiators are poised to meet in Geneva after Tehran submits a detailed nuclear proposal. Officials describe the talks as potentially the last diplomatic window before the Trump administration considers military action, though interim arrangements remain possible. Summary: US and Iranian negotiators expected to meet in Geneva Thursday Trump administration awaiting detailed Iranian

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold got a boost on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The initial reaction saw gold coming under pressure but eventually the market turned around, and we reached a new monthly high as Trump imposed new tariffs under a different law. Overall, not much has changed on the

China is back from its week long ‘Spring Break’ Lunar New Year holiday today. The calendar is light. We’ve had some NZ data already. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

From the man himself: “The supreme court (will be using lower case letters for a while based on a complete lack of respect!) of the United States accidentally and unwittingly gave me, as President of the United States, far more powers and strength than I had prior to their ridiculous, dumb, and very internationally divisive

Bitcoin. Not just this though, ETH down 4.5% also, whole crypto complex getting hit. Daily chart looks headed back to the lows: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil opened slightly lower in early trade as markets balanced escalating Iran–US tensions against renewed nuclear talks and rising tariff concerns that threaten global demand. Summary: Oil opens slightly softer in Sunday evening Globex trade Iran–US conflict risk underpins geopolitical risk premium Fresh nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday temper escalation fears Rising tariff concerns weigh

The big news since Friday and over the weekend is of course Trump’s tariffs mess. The Supreme Court ruled against the US president in a landmark 6-3 decision, stating that Trump exceeded his constitutional authority by unilaterally imposing broad global tariffs under the guise of national emergency powers. The tariffs announced in April last year

Prior 87.6 Current conditions 86.7 vs 86.3 expected Prior 85.7 Expectations 90.5 vs 90.3 expected Prior 89.5; revised to 89.6 The headline reading is a six-month high as German business morale picks up in the early stages of the new year. That comes alongside an improvement in both the current conditions and expectations/outlook index. The

Services CPI has been slightly concerning in recent months Services CPI has not fallen as quickly or as far as hoped I am looking for service price inflation to normalise along with wage growth this year I have become more reassured that we are proceeding towards inflation normalisation at a reasonable pace Weaker than expected

Summary: FT reports Iran agreed €500m arms deal with Russia in December Contract covers 500 Verba MANPADS launchers and 2,500 9M336 missiles Deliveries scheduled in tranches from 2027 to 2029 Deal negotiated between Rosoboronexport and Iran’s defence ministry representative Tehran formally requested systems in July Earlier: NYT: Trump weighs limited Iran strikes as nuclear deal

Summary: NYT reports Trump weighing limited US airstrikes on Iran in coming days Potential targets: IRGC, nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure Broader campaign, including pressure on Khamenei, possible if strikes fail Parallel diplomacy continues alongside military planning Proposal from IAEA chief Rafael Grossi could allow limited enrichment for medical fuel Framework would let Iran retain token

The USD is heavy in Asia trade on the new tariff debacle. Japan is closed today for a holiday. China is NOT back from its holiday today. I thought they were but I’ll have to wait until Tuesday, February 24, 2026. HK shares are up, Hang Seng +1.4% or so. This article was written by

Prior +1.2% HICP +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y prelim Prior +1.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. Looking at the details, services inflation is the one that is keeping higher at 2.5% last month. Meanwhile, goods price inflation is actually recording a -0.2% annual change. Overall, that leaves core annual inflation at 1.7% in

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback because on net, not much has changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is going to be the German IFO survey. The IFO is correlated with the German Composite PMI given that they measure basically the same thing. The Business Climate index is expected to tick higher to 88.3 vs 87.6 prior, but whatever the data, the market reaction

The USD is lower in early Asia trade. Its still VERY early, with thin liquidity, thinner than usual, due to the Japanese marekts being closed today for holiday. China is back, though, returning from their week-long Spring break / Lunar New Year holiday. USD down. – The Supreme Court ruling striking down much of President

Goldman raised its 2026 Q4 Brent/WTI forecasts to $60/$56 on tighter OECD stocks, while maintaining a 2026 surplus assumption. The bank sees firmer prices in 2027 but flags sanctions relief in Iran/Russia as a key downside risk. Summary: Goldman raises 2026 Q4 Brent/WTI by $6 to $60/$56 Assumes no Iran-related supply disruption and still sees

China urges US to drop unilateral tariffs after Supreme Court ruling Ethereum Futures Breakdown Accelerates Here’s why Bitcoin dropped sharply back under US$65K. No, its not a tariff tumble! BOJ could hike in March if yen weakens, says ex-policymaker Sakurai Goldman Sachs raises 2026 oil forecast, sees Brent at $60 by Q4 Bitcoin smashed lower,

Former BOJ board member Sakurai says a renewed yen slide could trigger a March rate hike, though April remains the more logical timing. He sees the policy rate rising toward 1.75% over coming years but warns against tightening too quickly. Via an interview with Reuters. Summary: Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai says March hike

I’ll have more to come on this separately … ADDED, ok, details here: BOJ could hike in March if yen weakens, says ex-policymaker Sakurai This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Markets overwhelmingly expect the People’s Bank of China to leave its benchmark lending rates untouched, with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate seen holding at 3.00% and the 5-year at 3.50%. Economists argue that commercial lenders are already grappling with historically thin net interest margins, meaning any further trimming of the LPR could squeeze bank profitability

Summary: Rolls-Royce is expected to announce a fresh share buyback of up to £1.5bn (~$2bn) with annual results this week, Sky News reported The company has not commented Rolls-Royce already reinstated payouts last year, unveiling a £1bn buyback alongside results Management has been running additional capital returns, including a £200m “interim” buyback ahead of FY25

Well, the news of note, from Friday, is of course: Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs Karen was quick to throw a tantrum: That didn’t take long: Trump increases global tariff to 15% from 10% Guide to early FX rates, not signficantly changed from late Friday I’ll be back with weekend news soon. This article

ECB’s Lagarde urges clarity as US tariff turmoil returns. Summary: Lagarde warns renewed US tariff uncertainty risks fresh disruption Says businesses need clarity on trade and investment rules Hopes new tariff plans are “sufficiently thought through” and constitutional Notes consumers ultimately bore the cost of prior tariffs Defends central bank independence amid US political backdrop

Ethereum traders are seeing something unusual beneath the surface. On Feb 20, options flow across two Ethereum-linked ETFs told very different stories. One reflected institutional accumulation, the other showed retail caution. When flows diverge like this, it often matters more than the headline sentiment label. Let’s break it down. But first, the backdrop music from

Trump is raising the tariff he just announced yesterday from 10% to 15%. He announced on Truth Social: Based on a thorough, detailed, and complete review of the ridiculous, poorly written, and extraordinarily anti-American decision on Tariffs issued yesterday, after MANY months of contemplation, by the United States Supreme Court, please let this statement serve

The NYT reports: President Trump is planning to invoke new trade authorities in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning his sweeping tariffs, according to two people familiar with his plans, potentially including a new, across-the-board tariff on U.S. trading partners. This is no surprise, many government officials have said this was coming. The report

Fed’s Logan: I’m not fully convinced we are on a path all the way to 2% Policy is well positioned to deal with risks Worried about demand outstripping supply Is cautiously optimistic that economy on path for a return to target One of the biggest uncertainties is the tech sector On the labor side, doesn’t

Supreme Court rules against Trump tariffs US Q4 advance GDP +1.4% vs +3.0% expected US December PCE inflation +2.9% vs +2.8% expected Trump says he will invoke 10% Section 122 global tariff Atlanta Fed GDP now growth estimate for the 1st quarter 3.1% University of Michigan sentiment index 56.6 versus 57.3 estimate Manufacturing PMI for

We are stepping into what might be the most consequential week of the Q4 earnings season. The spotlight is squarely on the AI complex, but we also have a massive slate of consumer and enterprise tech names ready to set the tone for the rest of the quarter. Here is the breakdown of the key

I would have expected the Supreme Court decision to be a negative for gold, as it opens the pathway to a reversal of tariffs and a re-affirmation of the dollar-based system. Instead, the market seems to be taking it as a sign of further turmoil and uncertainty, which is gold bullish. The ongoing worries about

Comments from Trump and what he’s hinting at: “Proud of the justices that voted in favour” and “no way anyone can argue with those who dissented” The dissent was Kavanaugh, joined by Thomas and Alito. Kavanaugh’s dissent argued for a foreign affairs exception to the major questions doctrine and read IEEPA’s text more broadly. The

Tech struggles as communication services edge up: A mixed market day Today’s US stock market presents a dynamic landscape with tech giants faltering while the communication services sector displays resilience. Here’s a thorough breakdown of sector performances, significant movers, and the overall market mood shaping the day. 📉 Technology Sector: Pulling Back Software and Semiconductors:

The NASDAQ index has rebounded in the wake of the Supreme Court decision, pushing to an intraday high of 22,948.87. That rally brought the index to within roughly 13–14 points of the falling 100-hour moving average (currently at 22,961.75) — a level that has attracted early selling interest. Sellers leaned against the moving average on

The Atlanta Fed’s initial GDPNow estimate for Q1 2026 real GDP growth came in at 3.1% (annualized) as of February 20, pointing to a solid start to the year. At the same time, the advance estimate for Q4 2025 GDP, released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, showed growth of just 1.4% — a

Prior was +2.8% PCE M/M +0.4% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.2% Core PCE Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.9% expected Prior +2.8% Core PCE M/M +0.4% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.2% Consumer spending and income for December: Personal income +0.3% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.3% (revised to +0.4%) Personal spending +0.4% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.5% (revised

A Supreme Court decision on key Trump tariffs is expected in the current opinion window (with Feb 20 highlighted), and JPMorgan’s trading desk outlines sharply different equity outcomes depending on whether tariffs are upheld, struck down, or swiftly replaced. With ~$124bn in customs duties through January, fiscal incentives may reinforce rapid “replacement” efforts if IEEPA

Market action in the wake of the tariff decision has been choppy. There aren’t many tariff/Supreme Court experts on trading desks, so markets are understandably confused. Trump and other administration officials have said many times that they have other opportunities to reconstitute tariffs. The initial reaction in markets largely suggests they’re taking that at face

The USD initially moved lower following the Supreme Court’s 6–3 decision striking down the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariff authority. The greenback sold off in the immediate aftermath as markets reacted to the removal of tariff-related price pressures. However, the reaction has been mixed across asset classes. U.S. yields have pushed higher — with the 10-year

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar is now trading higher against most major currencies after another slate of strong US data this week and the US-Iran tensions potentially supporting the greenback. The market is still pricing 57 bps of easing by year-end but the crowded bearish positioning on the US dollar requires strong reasons for

Trump says the Supreme Court decision is a ‘disgrace’ and that he will find other ways to impose them, according to CNN. The thing is, IEEPA tariffs are immediately voided and that’s 60% of tariff revenue. I’d imagine there is rush to get those over the border and that’s going to create a huge trade

There is just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at the 155.00 level. Similar to yesterday, the expiries may factor into play in acting as a magnet for price action during the session ahead. However, the impact of the one for

Manufacturing flash index 51.2 versus 52.6. Prior month 52.4 Services PMI flash for February 52.3 versus 53.0 estimate. Prior 52.7. Composite 52.3 versus 53.0 last month The good news is that each of the a indices were above the 50.0 level indicating growth. The bad news is that each of the estimates were below the

Prior 1.3% revised to 1.2% Retail sales ex auto – +0.1% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month revised to 1.6% from 1.7% Sales C$70.0b Advance retail sale for January is expected at 1.5% Details: Retail sales fell -0.4% to $70.0B in December 3 of 9 subsectors declined, led by motor vehicle & parts dealers Core retail

Key Points for crude oil traders and investors: Crude oil futures have broken out of a classic daily bull flag pattern. The $65 area on crude is now a key line that separates strength from failure. UCO is forming higher lows near $25, showing buyers are stepping in on dips. As long as support holds,

Summary: Westpac says January’s jobs data show a stable unemployment rate at 4.1%, but participation declines are doing most of the work. Underlying hiring remains subdued, and a rebound in participation could lift unemployment back toward 4.5% in coming months. — Westpac says Australia’s January labour force report paints a steadier picture than the volatility

Final Q3 GDP was +4.4% Consumer spending (PCE):+2.4% GDP final sales (excluding inventories) +1.2% vs +2.6% expected GDP price index (GDP deflator): vs +2.9% expected Core PCE (excluding food & energy): +2.7% vs +2.6% expected Business investment (nonresidential fixed investment): 2025 annual GDP at about 2.23% Contributions to GDP in percentage points: Government -0.9 vs

The group is the one managing the infamous Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), which provides fiscal budget projections and economic analysis of major US legislation without advocacy. And by their estimates, the US could owe over $175 billion in tariff refunds should the Supreme Court rule against Trump’s broad emergency tariffs. As a reminder, the

The major US indices are opening mixed with the Dow industrial average down -0.37%. The S&P index trading above and below unchanged, and the NASDAQ index up around 0.20%. As a reminder The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to release opinions this morning, with announcements typically issued at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on scheduled opinion

In a 6-3 decision, the US Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. “The Government thus concedes, as it must, that the President enjoys no inherent authority to impose tariffs during peacetime,” the Supreme Court ruled. “If Congress were to relinquish that weapon

Blue Owl permanently restricted withdrawals from its $1.6bn private-debt fund, selling $1.4bn of loans at 99.7% of par and planning a 30% NAV distribution in Q1. El-Erian questioned whether it’s an early warning sign for private credit, though not a 2008-scale threat. Summary: $1.6bn Blue Owl Capital Corp. II fund permanently restricts investor withdrawals. Blue

Japan’s February flash PMIs strengthened across the board, with composite output rising to 53.8 and manufacturing gaining momentum. Export demand surged, backlogs hit record highs and price pressures firmed, while business confidence improved. Summary: Composite PMI: 53.8 (Jan 53.1), fastest growth since May 2023. Services PMI: 53.8 (Jan 53.7), quickest pace since May 2024. Manufacturing

University of Michigan sentiment index for February final: Sentiment 56.6 versus 57.3 current conditions 56.6 versus 57.7 expectations 56.6 versus 56 6 preliminary 5 year inflation 3.3% versus 3.4% preliminary 1 year inflation 3.4% versus 3.5% preliminary From Consumer Director Joanne HsuConsumer sentiment stagnated this month with very little change, just 0.2 index points higher

The bounce here sees silver trade up by over 3% today to now above $81. It’s a solid recovery from the lows on Tuesday, which saw a dip just under the $72 level at the time. The price swings this week are not as volatile as what we’ve seen in late January to early February

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar is now trading higher against most major currencies after another slate of strong US data this week and the US-Iran tensions potentially supporting the greenback. The market is still pricing 57 bps of easing by year-end but the crowded bearish positioning on the US dollar requires strong reasons for

Prior 49.1 Services PMI 53.4 vs 52.4 expected Prior 52.4 Composite PMI 53.1 vs 52.3 expected Prior 52.1 Key Points: Business activity growth ticks up to four-month high in February Comment: Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Hurray, German industry is growing again.

Prior +0.4% Retail sales +4.5% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.5%; revised to +1.9% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +2.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.3% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +5.5% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +3.1%; revised to +2.5% That’s an impressive beat in terms of the monthly figure, with the headline being

Prior 51.6 Manufacturing PMI 50.8 vs 50.0 expected Prior 49.5 Composite PMI 51.9 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.3 The most notable thing here is the rebound in the manufacturing sector, with the reading there being a 44-month high. That is largely led by the recovery in Germany, which saw its industry return to expansion territory

MUFG says recent dollar gains driven by stronger U.S. data and cautious Fed minutes are unlikely to last. Political uncertainty and concerns about Fed independence under President Trump may keep investor sentiment toward the greenback fragile. Summary: MUFG’s Derek Halpenny says recent U.S. dollar strength is unlikely to be sustained. Durable goods, housing and industrial

Despite the Fed staying in pause mode to start the year, market expectations are still leaning towards more rate cuts down the road. And that is reflected by the pricing in Fed funds futures as well. Currently, we’re still seeing traders price in ~57 bps of rate cuts by year-end. The recent solid US economic

Will not pursue reckless fiscal policy that undermines market confidence To push bold investment through multi-year budgets and long-term funds The necessary spending will be funded through the initial budget as much as possible Will steadily lower the debt-to-GDP ratio and restore fiscal sustainability To maintain market trust and clarify concrete fiscal indicators Will ensure

Prior 54.0 Manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.8 Composite PMI 53.9 vs 53.2 expected Prior 53.7 Key Findings: Rebound in UK private sector business activity continues in February, but job losses persist Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The early PMI data for February bring further signs of

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlights will be the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. Given the market pricing, we will likely need surprisingly soft data for the Eurozone to trigger a decent market reaction as traders could start betting on rate cuts. Better than expected data is

Prior 48.4 Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 51.0 expected Prior 51.2 Composite PMI 49.9 vs 49.7 expected Prior 49.1 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.2% The much softer reading here owes a lot to base effects, in particular the impact of energy prices. That is also the main reason for the drag on the year-on-year reading, which was 3.0% lower than January 2025. When energy prices are excluded, producer prices in January 2026 rose by 0.6% compared with

INR tests 91 but steadies as suspected RBI selling checks holiday-thinned, NDF-led pressure. Summary: INR last: 90.9450 on the interbank matching system after briefly slipping past 91. Traders said the Reserve Bank of India likely sold U.S. dollars before the local spot open to prevent a cleaner break above 91/$. Offshore 1-month NDF had pointed

Lagarde signals intent to finish ECB term, amid politically sensitive succession chatter. Westpac warns Australia’s unemployment rate masks soft demand and falling participation FX INTERVENTION: Reports the Reserve Bank of India is selling USD/INR to support the rupee Goldman: Gold to grind higher to $5,400/oz by end-2026 on strong demand NZD, AUD fall as RBNZ

Japan inflation cools sharply in January, easing near-term pressure on the BoJ. Summary: Headline CPI y/y: 1.5% (exp. 1.6%, prev. 2.1%) — lowest since March 2022. Core CPI (ex fresh food) y/y: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.4%). Core-core CPI (ex food & energy) y/y: 2.6% (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.9%). National CPI ex fresh food &

Ether futures analysis: medium-term structure stabilizing after heavy two-sided trade Ether futures are trading near $1,960 after a volatile stretch that saw sharp downside pressure followed by responsive buying. The broader crypto space remains sensitive to macro headlines and equity sentiment, but ETH is currently attempting to stabilize rather than extend lower. What underlying crypto

For months on end, it has been hard to ignore the political side of things when viewing the Japanese yen outlook. The snap election results earlier this month continued to put the focus on that, with intervention risks as high as ever at the moment. The general feeling is that the yen is ready to

RBNZ signals steady hand on rates, nudging NZD lower and dragging AUD with it. Summary: NZD and AUD both fall, with Kiwi leading declines during Asian trade. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr (Breman remarks cited) says inflation likely already back inside target band in Q1. RBNZ confident inflation will return to the 2% midpoint within 12

Lagarde told The Wall Street Journal she expects to complete her term as ECB president through October 2027, dampening speculation of an early departure that could allow France to influence the succession before its 2027 election. Summary: Christine Lagarde told The Wall Street Journal (gated) she expects to serve as ECB president until October 2027.

This is just a post with the data. I’ll have more, analysis and implications posted separately. Note that the 1.5% overall pace is below 2% for the first time since March 2022. The latest on the BoJ: BOJ expected to reach 1% by mid-year as yen intervention risks rise near 160 USD/JPY JBA chief says

Goldman sees gold grinding higher to $5,400/oz by end-2026, with upside skew from diversification. Summary: Goldman expects central bank gold buying to re-accelerate in 2026 at the pace seen in 2025. This is in a conservative base case that assumes no additional private-sector diversification beyond current trends. Goldman’s core view: central bank demand plus private

The oil market continues to signal a rising chance of US military intervention in Iran. Oil had been bouncing around in a range of $62-$66 as headlines around Iran shifted the narrative but today crude broke out. It’s up $1.34 to $66.53 and has simultaneously broke above the October high. Oil briefly bounced around today

NQ (Nasdaq Futures) analysis: Energy heats up, Tech cools down as rotation pressure builds Nasdaq futures (NQ) are trading around 24,844, modestly lower on the session. The broader S&P 500 heatmap shows internal divergence rather than broad liquidation, while crude oil futures (CL) are trading near $66.46, up about +2.17% on the day, confirming renewed

Canadian Tire reported Q4 numbers today and the read-through on the Canadian consumer is clear: they’re still spending and there are no indications of weakness. Comp sales came in at +4.2% across all banners, with SportChek ripping at +9.5% and Mark’s up 7.2%. Normalized EPS jumped 38% to $4.47. What’s interesting from the call this

Prior was +8530K Gasoline -3213K vs -284K exp Distillates -4566K vs -1440K exp Refinery utilization +1.6% vs +0.4% exp The huge swings in this report continue. The API data from late yesterday showed: Crude -609K Gasoline -312K Distillates -1560K WTI crude oil was up $1.46 to $66.65 per barrel. The market is focused on the

The Minneapolis Fed President is something of a hawk lately and is out with some comments: Fed is close on both mandates Crypto is “utterly useless” AI could be a boost to productivity in the next 5-10 years Fed is cautious about using AI internally Fed is committed to making the best decisions based on

Walmart shares are indicated flat in the pre-market despite what looks like a solid beat on the top and bottom line. The quarter itself was strong — but the guidance is pointing to a deceleration. Shares initially fell on the weaker guidance but the CFO said it’s prudent to start the year with conservative guidance

There were weeks of breathless commentary about 5% GDP growth in the US in the fourth quarter and now here we are — less than 24 hours from the release — and the tracker has been revised all the way down to 3.0%. The quarter started off with a super-strong trade balance reading for October