A 25bp cash rate cut is almost unanimously expected. The latest set of forecasts I have seen have all analysts look for 25bp but two, who are looking for a 50bp rate cut.
I’m on the 25bp, 50 seems a little extreme for a usually very timid RBA. Earlier:
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In its note, TD Securities expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut at today’s policy meeting, bringing the cash rate to 3.85%. The forecast aligns with market consensus and fully priced expectations in OIS markets.
The bank notes that recent inflation and labour market data have broadly matched the RBA’s February projections, providing sufficient grounds to shift toward an easing stance.
While attention will centre on the rate decision, TD says the RBA’s commentary on global tariff risks will be key. “We see risks of minor downgrades to GDP forecasts,” analysts wrote, “but doubt that CPI projections will shift materially.”
Markets will be closely watching the RBA’s forward guidance for signals on whether this marks the start of a broader easing cycle.
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Bolding above is mine. I don’t expect too much in the way of promises of future cuts, but the RBA will leave the door open, data dependent etc.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock’s news conference will follow an hour after the Statement.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
