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ICYMI: Former NY Fed President Dudley says FOMC needs to cut next week, September too late

William Dudley served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from 2009 to 2018. Greg had the headlines from him overnight: Fed’s Dudley: It may be too late to fend off a recession Dudley’s long held previous view was for a rate cut later this year, but: “The facts have changed, so

ICYMI: Former NY Fed President Dudley says FOMC needs to cut next week, September too late Read More »

Japan’s Kanda says finance leaders discussed China’s excessive capacity

Earlier: Japan finance minister Suzuki spoke from Brazil – didn’t comment on FX levels This now from Kanda on China. He didn’t mention FX either: Won’t comment on current situation in FX – Japan’s Finance Ministry’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Kanda. He is the official who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when

Japan’s Kanda says finance leaders discussed China’s excessive capacity Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2706 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2706 – Reuters estimate Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1321 (vs. estimate at 7.2706)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1321 (vs. estimate at 7.2706) Read More »

European Central Bank President Lagarde speaking on Thursday, July 25, 2024

European Central Bank President Lagarde will be appearing at Paris Summit 2024 Sport for Sustainable Development (S4SD) “Faster, Higher, Stronger – Together for a Better Future” in Paris, France. This doesn’t sound like the sort of event that’ll bring forth comments relevant to traders. But, you never know. Due at 1500 GMT / 1100 US

European Central Bank President Lagarde speaking on Thursday, July 25, 2024 Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 24 Jul:Watch out below! Broad indices worst day since 2022

VIX has closed at its highest since April 19Big Wins and Misses: IBM and Chipotle Beat Expectations, Ford Falls ShortNASDAQ index has its worst trading day since November 2, 2022Crude oil settles at $77.59Bitcoin consolidating between 100 and 200 hour moving averagesU.S. Treasury auctions off $70 billion of the 5-year note at a high yield

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 24 Jul:Watch out below! Broad indices worst day since 2022 Read More »

ING: “PBOC surprises markets with an off-schedule 20bp cut to the MLF”

Earlier today: People’s Bank of China reduces 1 year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate to 2.3% This followed the Bank leaving the MLF rate unchanged last week: PBOC to lower collateral for Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) loans ING say the decision today was a surprise for two reasons: 1. The timing After keeping the MLF

ING: “PBOC surprises markets with an off-schedule 20bp cut to the MLF” Read More »

Israeli PM Netanyahu: America and Israel must stand together

Israeli PM Netanyahu is addressing U.S. Congress. He will meet individually with Pres. Biden and VP Harris and will also meet with GOP nominee Trump tomorrow. Says: America and Israel must stand togetherCame to assure you of one thing, that we will win.Actively engaged in intensive efforts to secure hostages release.Thanks Biden for his heartfelt

Israeli PM Netanyahu: America and Israel must stand together Read More »

Economic calendar in Asia on Thursday, July 25, 2024 – some data from Japan

Lower-tier data due from Japan. The Corporate Service Price Index is Japan’s Services PPI. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to

Economic calendar in Asia on Thursday, July 25, 2024 – some data from Japan Read More »

Chinese bank (one of the world’s largest banks) cuts time deposit rates

Bank of China have announced a 10bps-20bps cut in time deposit rates. Cuts begin today. — About that awkward headline. No doubt someone will confuse this for a PBOC rate cut. It is not. The PBOC did cut rates, and dropped in other easing measures, on Monday: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: A series of

Chinese bank (one of the world’s largest banks) cuts time deposit rates Read More »

David Rosenberg says more Bank of Canada rate cuts are needed, “still too high “

The Bank of Canada cut by 25bp on Wednesday, news and analysis posts here: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 24 Jul:Watch out below! Broad indices worst day since 2022 From noted economist David Rosenberg, calling for plenty more to come: The Bank of Canada’s decision to lower its key interest rate to 4.5% is the

David Rosenberg says more Bank of Canada rate cuts are needed, “still too high “ Read More »

Big Wins and Misses: IBM and Chipotle Beat Expectations, Ford Falls Short

Key earnings after the close IBM: shares are up 1.83% in after-hours trading Revenues 15.77 billion versus 15.62 billion estimat – BEATEPS $2.43 versus $2.20 expected- BEAT Chipotle: Shares are up 8.155% in after-hours trading Revenues $2.97 billion versus $2.94 billion expected: BEATEPS $0.34 versus $0.32 expected: BEAT ServiceNow: Shares are up 6.15% in after-hours

Big Wins and Misses: IBM and Chipotle Beat Expectations, Ford Falls Short Read More »

Fed’s Bowman speaking – no comments on the economy nor on monetary policy

Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaking unrelated to her views on the economy and monetary policy. She is delivering Opening Remarks at “Advance Together: Celebrating the Achievements of Texas Community Partnerships,” a public event at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas, Texas (via pre-recorded video) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Fed’s Bowman speaking – no comments on the economy nor on monetary policy Read More »

US stocks close lower ahead of Tesla and Alphabet earnings

The major US stock indices closed lower ahead of Tesla and Alphabet earnings. Dow Industrial Average average fell -57.27 points or -0.14% at 40,358.10S&P index fell minus 8.65.4 -0.16% at 5555.75NASDAQ index fell -10.22 points or -0.06% at 17997.35 The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 22.61 points or 1.02% at 2243.26. Ahead of earnings, Alphabet rose

US stocks close lower ahead of Tesla and Alphabet earnings Read More »

U.S. Treasury auctions off $70 billion of the 5-year note at a high yield of 4.121%

High-yield 4.121%WI level at the time of the auction 4.110%Tail 1.1 basis point versus a six month average of 0.5%Bid to cover 2.40X versus six month average of 2.36XDealers 13.97% vs six month average of 16.3%Directs (domestic investors) 18.78% vs six month average of 17.9%Indirects (international investors) 67.25% versus the six month average of 65.8%

U.S. Treasury auctions off $70 billion of the 5-year note at a high yield of 4.121% Read More »

U.S. Treasury to auction off $70 billion of five-year notes at the top of the hour

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $70 billion of five-year note at the top of the hour. The success or failure of the auction will be dependent on the components and their relationship to the six month averages. More specifically: Tail 0.5 basis pointsBid to Cover 2.36XDirects 17.9%Indirects 65.8%Dealers 15.3% The last option high-yield was

U.S. Treasury to auction off $70 billion of five-year notes at the top of the hour Read More »

US goods trade balance for June -$96.8 billion versus $-98.8 billion estimate

Prior month $-98.4 billion revised to $-99.37 billionTrade deficit for June $-96.8 billion versus expectations of $-98.8 billion This is just the deficit for goods. The US always runs a negative goods trade balance with the rest of the world due to the large inflow of imported goods. In contrast the US runs a service

US goods trade balance for June -$96.8 billion versus $-98.8 billion estimate Read More »

GBPJPY reverses June/early July surge and follows similar technical tools. Watch and learn

Earlier this month, I did a series of posts, following the trend of the GBPJPY on a trend move higher. The move to the upside was helped by dips finding support against the 100-hour MA. That continued until it didn’t and the technical story changed. Here is the succession of posts. https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-gbpjpy-is-trading-at-highest-level-since-2008-and-bounced-off-support-todaywhat-next-20240705/https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/has-the-song-remained-the-same-for-the-technicals-driving-the-gbpjpy-trend-move-higher-20240708/https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpjpy-still-remains-above-the-100-hour-ma-20240709/https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpjpy-continues-its-run-to-the-upside-hints-of-a-top-yesterdayfails-20240710/ When the high

GBPJPY reverses June/early July surge and follows similar technical tools. Watch and learn Read More »

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD and JPY gained ground (USD/JPY lower)

European Central Bank speakers on Wednesday include de Guindos, Lane and BuchAustralia Q2 CPI preview – “June CPI should not close the door on a rate cut”Earnings results update 23 July 2024 (AMC)NZD/USD, AUD/USD extend their dribbling lossesPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1358 (vs. estimate at 7.2795)USD/JPY drops to a fresh low for

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD and JPY gained ground (USD/JPY lower) Read More »

European Central Bank speakers on Wednesday include de Guindos, Lane and Buch

0645 GMT / 0245 US Eastern time: Chairing of Session 5 by ECB board member Luis de Guindos at joint conference of the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, and IMF Economic Review “Global Challenges and Channels for Fiscal and Monetary Policy” in Frankfurt, Germany 1200 GMT/0800 US Eastern time: Participation by ECB board member

European Central Bank speakers on Wednesday include de Guindos, Lane and Buch Read More »

ICYMI – European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane spoke Tuesday – nothing for traders

Lane gave ‘Opening remarks’ at the Joint ECB-IMF-IMFER Conference 2024 You can find the full text here: I am pleased to welcome you to this research conference (if you are having trouble sleeping) The ECB bill the conference as: jointly organised by the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the IMF Economic Review,

ICYMI – European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane spoke Tuesday – nothing for traders Read More »

Market tumult: Big tech takes a hit while telecom thrives

Understanding Today’s Volatile Market Trends Today’s US stock market presents a varied landscape of gains and losses across different sectors, painting a picture of evolving market dynamics and investor sentiments. A deep dive into the heatmap reveals significant movements that are crucial for investors at every level. Technology and Communication Sectors The technology sector, typically

Market tumult: Big tech takes a hit while telecom thrives Read More »

EIA weekly crude oil inventories drawdown of -3.741M vs drawdown of -1.583M estimate

The private oil inventory data released late yesterday showed another drawdown in crude oil stocks. Gasoline, distilates and Cushing all showed drawdowns as well: The EIA numbers are now out showing: Crude oil drawdown of -3.741M vs drawdown of -1.583M estimateDistilates drawdown of -2.753M vs build of +0.249M estimate. Gasoline drawdown of -5.572M vs drawdown

EIA weekly crude oil inventories drawdown of -3.741M vs drawdown of -1.583M estimate Read More »

A technical look at broader stocks and key forex pairs including EURUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD

This video is a potpourri of various instruments. At first I take a look at the broader stock indices which are getting hammered on concerns of growth slowing (and costs increasing). I then transition into some of the major currency pairs which are moving today including the: EURUSD – Trying to bounceUSDJPY – Continuing to

A technical look at broader stocks and key forex pairs including EURUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD Read More »

Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 2Q comes in at 2.6% vs 2.7% previously

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 2Q comes in at 2.6% versus 2.7% previously. This will be the last model report for the 2Q. smart 8:30 AM, the advanced GDP will be released. The survey of economists estimates a lower value at 2.0%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP

Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 2Q comes in at 2.6% vs 2.7% previously Read More »

Reuter/Ipso Poll: Harris 44% Trump 42% among registered voters

A Reuter/Ipsos poll (get used to them), has Harris leading Trump in a two way race 44% to 42%: Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 44% to 42% among registered voters, within 3-point margin of error, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds.56% of registered voters in Reuters/Ipsos poll consider Harris ‘mentally sharp’; Trump seen as

Reuter/Ipso Poll: Harris 44% Trump 42% among registered voters Read More »

TSLA stock technical analysis video, after negative earnings

Tesla (TSLA) technical analysis, 24 July 2024 – what is expected from the stock after last night’s earnings and into the next several weeks/months Tesla’s recent earnings report has had a notable impact on its stock price. Here is an in-depth technical analysis and price forecast for TSLA post-earnings, incorporating key technical levels to help

TSLA stock technical analysis video, after negative earnings Read More »

US new home sales for June 0.617M vs 0.640M estimate

Prior month 0.619M annualized (lowest level since December 2023. The high level came in at 0.693M annualized pace) revised to 0.621MNew-home sales 0.617M which is lower than the estimate of 0.640M Details: Sales of New Single-Family Houses: June 2024: Seasonally adjusted annual rate of 617,0000.6% below the revised May rate of 621,0007.4% below the June

US new home sales for June 0.617M vs 0.640M estimate Read More »

USDJPY continues to push lower. Stocks continue its run to the downside

Worries about recession are gaining momentum. Former Fed Gov. Dudley warned that the Fed may be too late and is pushing for a cut now (at the meeting next week). Earnings calls did have some warnings. LVMH, the European luxury retailer said: Concerns about demand from Chinese consumers impacted other luxury stocks:Sales in Asia (excluding

USDJPY continues to push lower. Stocks continue its run to the downside Read More »

Fed’s Dudley: It may be too late to fend off a recission

Overnight, Fed’s Dudley to Bloomberg said that: Historically deteriorating labor markets generate a self reinforcing feedback loop When jobs are hard to find, household trim spending, the economy weakens, and businesses reduce investment, which leads to layoffs and further spending cuts.Although it might already ready to fend off a recession, dawdling now unnecessarily increases the

Fed’s Dudley: It may be too late to fend off a recission Read More »

The Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25 basis points to 4.50% from 4.75%

The Bank of Canada cut rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%. Highlights from the Macklem’s prepared text: BoC lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%.Key considerations for the decision:Monetary policy is easing broad price pressures.Economy has excess supply and slack in the labor market, allowing for growth without inflation.Balancing risk

The Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25 basis points to 4.50% from 4.75% Read More »

All analysts surveyed expect the Bank of Canada to cut by 25bp today, Wednesday, July 24

The Bank of Canada meet today, announcement due at 0945 Eastern time: The survey referred to is conducted by the Wall Street Journal: All 14 economists surveyed last week by The Wall Street Journal predicted Canada’s central bank would cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point, to 4.5%. majority of analysts surveyed expect the

All analysts surveyed expect the Bank of Canada to cut by 25bp today, Wednesday, July 24 Read More »

Germany August GfK consumer sentiment -18.4 vs -21.0 expected

Prior -21.8; revised to -21.6 German consumer morale recovers significantly going into August as income expectations for households hit the highest in over two years. That comes amid stronger wage increases and slightly lower inflation, according to GfK. That said, the institute does warn that while the signs are promising, “it can also as quickly

Germany August GfK consumer sentiment -18.4 vs -21.0 expected Read More »

Bank of Canada’s Macklem. We need to be more symmetric in our policy

There is another excess supply in the economy to bring inflation back down toward 2% targetWe need to be more symmetric in our policyindicators are suggesting that broad base price pressures are easingIf inflation continues to move down as we expect, it is reasonable to expect lower rates. We don’t want to predetermine policy This

Bank of Canada’s Macklem. We need to be more symmetric in our policy Read More »

Bank of Canada rate decision decision at 9:45 AM ET. USDCAD near high of swing area.

The Bank of Canada will announce her interest rate decision at 9:45 AM ET (CLICK HERE). The tilt is for a 25 basis point cut to 4.5% from 4.75%. However, a survey 30 economists and Reuters puts the average rate at 4.57%. So there is some dissension. The press conference will begin at 10:30 AM

Bank of Canada rate decision decision at 9:45 AM ET. USDCAD near high of swing area. Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen gains continue, equities in retreat mode

Headlines: USD/JPY drops below 155.00 mark for the first time in seven weeksUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – The sellers remain in controlEurozone July flash services PMI 51.9 vs 53.0 expectedFrance July flash services PMI 50.7 vs 49.8 expectedGermany July flash services PMI 52.0 vs. 53.1 expectedGermany August GfK consumer sentiment -18.4 vs -21.0 expectedUK July flash

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen gains continue, equities in retreat mode Read More »

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 19 July -2.2% vs +3.9% prior

Prior +3.9%Market index 209.3 vs 214.1 priorPurchase index 134.8 vs 140.4 priorRefinance index 614.9 vs 613.0 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.82% vs 6.87% prior Mortgage applications fell back in the past week with a drop in purchases activity offsetting a marginal increase in refinancing activity. Overall, it still points to a more subdued sentiment in the

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 19 July -2.2% vs +3.9% prior Read More »

Japan flash PMIs (July): Manufacturing 49.2 (prior 50.0) Services 53.9 (prior 49.4)

Jibun Bank S&P Global PMI Flash / Preliminary for July 2024 for Japan Manufacturing PMI 49.2, first time under 50 (and into contraction) in 3 month expected 50.5, prior 50.0sub indexes show that output and new orders fell slightly, higher prices weigh on margins (input cost inflation to the highest since April 2023)new orders weakest

Japan flash PMIs (July): Manufacturing 49.2 (prior 50.0) Services 53.9 (prior 49.4) Read More »

Eurozone July flash services PMI 51.9 vs 53.0 expected

Prior 52.8Manufacturing PMI 45.6 vs 46.1 expectedPrior 45.8Composite PMI 50.1 vs 51.1 expectedPrior 50.9 The growth in the Eurozone economy has stalled in July, with services activity growing at a slower pace and manufacturing conditions continuing to dawdle. The former reading is a 4-month lower while the latter reading is a 7-month low. That suggests

Eurozone July flash services PMI 51.9 vs 53.0 expected Read More »

Bank analysts see a higher USD if Trump wins the election – despite his talk of lower

Bloomberg (gated) gathered together views on the USD from Deutsche, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley. Deutsche Bank say that tarriffs & associated stronger implications for the USD are significantly more likely to be dominant than stated polices to seek a weaker USDBarclays say in isolation the tariff risk is enough to support a rally for the

Bank analysts see a higher USD if Trump wins the election – despite his talk of lower Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 23 Jul: USD continues fall vs JPY, but rises vs other CCYs

Oil: Private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw larger than expectedEarnings after the close led by Alphabet and Tesla. Tesla misses. Alphabet beatsUS stocks close lower ahead of Tesla and Alphabet earningsGOP Nominee Trump: I will go ahead and debate Harris. Happy to do more.Crude oil futures settle at $76.96Macron:Outgoing majority has lost

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 23 Jul: USD continues fall vs JPY, but rises vs other CCYs Read More »

Biden’s Exit Fuels Bitcoin Surge Amid Trump Re-Election Talk

Trump supports crypto, attracting votes from the sector Bitcoin (BTC) is on the cusp of significant price movements due to two major catalysts: the launch of new Ethereum ETFs and the evolving political landscape with Donald Trump’s increased engagement in the crypto space. Ethereum ETF Approval, Trump’s Crypto Endorsement, and Bitcoin’s Bullish Outlook Recently, the

Biden’s Exit Fuels Bitcoin Surge Amid Trump Re-Election Talk Read More »

Germany July flash services PMI 52.0 vs. 53.1 expected

Services PMI 52.0 vs. 53.1 expected and 53.1 prior.Manufacturing PMI 42.6 vs. 44.0 expected and 43.5 prior.Composite PMI 48.7 vs. 50.7 expected and 50.4 prior. Key Findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 48.7 (June: 50.4). 4-month low. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 52.0 (June: 53.1). 4-month low. HCOB

Germany July flash services PMI 52.0 vs. 53.1 expected Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2795 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2795 – Reuters estimate Read More »

The ECB wants to cut rates further but it still hasn’t gotten the green light yet

But alas, the ECB has to keep their focus on inflation pressures first and foremost. If growth expectations were the main argument, there would be a strong reason to push with a rate cut in September after the PMI data earlier. Instead, the situation now presents a bit of a headache for the central bank.

The ECB wants to cut rates further but it still hasn’t gotten the green light yet Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1358 (vs. estimate at 7.2795)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1358 (vs. estimate at 7.2795) Read More »

Australia Q2 CPI preview – “June CPI should not close the door on a rate cut”

Main points made by Westpac in thier CPI preview, saying “June CPI should not close the door on a rate cut”: Westpac confirms its June quarter CPI forecast of 1.0%qtr/3.8%yr which we first released on June 18 and left unchanged at our July 2 update. Our Trimmed Mean forecast is also unchanged at 0.9%qtr/4.0%yr. For

Australia Q2 CPI preview – “June CPI should not close the door on a rate cut” Read More »

Earnings after the close led by Alphabet and Tesla. Tesla misses. Alphabet beats

Visa Inc (V) Q3 2024 (USD): Shares are trading down -2.11% after the close. Adj. EPS: $2.51 (exp. $2.43) BEATRevenue: $8.9B (exp. $8.89B) BEA Tesla Inc (TSLA) Q2 2024 (USD): Shares are trading down -5.22% after trading down -2.04% during the day today Adj. EPS: $0.52 (exp. $0.62) MISSRevenue: $25.5B (exp. $24.77B) BEAT Tesla’s focus

Earnings after the close led by Alphabet and Tesla. Tesla misses. Alphabet beats Read More »

MUFG warn that the yen could turn back around again and fall – eyes on BOJ

JPY has been the outperformer, surging against the USD. Analysts at MUFG Bank are a little wary though: Japanese politicians are nervous about the snail’s pace of monetary policy normalizationyen’s weakness, along with Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership election in September are factors favouring a rate rise next week, not waiting until laterMUFG expect

MUFG warn that the yen could turn back around again and fall – eyes on BOJ Read More »

Five factors that will drive global equites higher still in H2 of 2024

Snippet via HSBC on likely potential tailwinds for stockmarkets globally in this second half the year. Analysts at the bank say their discussion with clients indicate to much attention being paid to downside risks, and overlooking 5 key potential triggers for higher prices yet to come: Earnings reports remain positiveThe ‘Goldilocks macroeconomic landscape to underpin

Five factors that will drive global equites higher still in H2 of 2024 Read More »

Australian flash PMI (July): Manufacturing 47.4 (prior 47.2) Services 50.8 (prior 51.2)

Judo Bank S&P Global PMI Flash / Preliminary for July 2024 While manufacturing is up a touch, services is down. Composite (reflecting both) is down. Not a great report. Comments from the report, Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank, in brief: Flash PMI report is an early read on Australia’s economy in July

Australian flash PMI (July): Manufacturing 47.4 (prior 47.2) Services 50.8 (prior 51.2) Read More »

USD/JPY swings continue, tracking a near 50 point range so far in Asia

USD/JPY is up from its late US/early Asia lows under 155.60. We haven’t seen news headlines out of Japan apart from the data: Japan flash PMIs (July): Manufacturing 49.2 (prior 50.0) Services 53.9 (prior 49.4) This data is not usually much of a yen mover, and today is no different. The bounce back happened well

USD/JPY swings continue, tracking a near 50 point range so far in Asia Read More »

Oil: Private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw larger than expected

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: – Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.6mn barrelsDistillates +0.2mn bblsGasoline -0.4mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

Oil: Private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw larger than expected Read More »

Deputy PM Novak: Russia cut oil production in July, nearly to OPEC agreed target level

Russian news outlet Interfax had the comments from Novak on Tuesday: “We have nearly reached it [the required level of oil output within OPEC+]. We are close to it. We have somewhat ‘underperformed’ the target at full volume, so to speak,” said that the Energy Ministry would send the OPEC Secretariat a schedule for offsetting

Deputy PM Novak: Russia cut oil production in July, nearly to OPEC agreed target level Read More »

Economic calendar in Asia 24 July 2024 – Japan and Australia flash PMIs

more to come This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

Economic calendar in Asia 24 July 2024 – Japan and Australia flash PMIs Read More »

Macron:Outgoing majority has lost elections,but French want non-far right to work together

France President Macron: The outgoing majority has lost elections, but the French wanted non-far right to work togetherWhen asked about left-wing alliance PM candidate, Macron says issue of the moment is not about names.Neither left-wing alliance nor outgoing majority can apply their program.Urges political parties in parliament to work together to reach compromises during the

Macron:Outgoing majority has lost elections,but French want non-far right to work together Read More »

Jeffries and Schumer officially endorse VP Harris as the Democratic nominee

As expected, Senate Majority Leader Schumer and House Minority Leader Jeffries officially endorse VP Harris as the Democratic nominee for President. The money has been flowing into the Harris coffers with $140M raised since Sunday. As a comparison Biden raised $96M up until July. Meanwhile, over at Trump headquarters, after the assassination attempt, it was

Jeffries and Schumer officially endorse VP Harris as the Democratic nominee Read More »

Politico: Schumer and Jeffries to endorse Harris for president later today

Politico is reporting that Senate Majority Leader Schumer and House Minority Leader Jeffries are to officially endorse Harris for president at a 1 PM press conference: Late yesterday Harris secured the necessary delegates for the Democratic nomination. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Politico: Schumer and Jeffries to endorse Harris for president later today Read More »

U.S. Treasury auctions off $69 billion of 2-year notes at a high yield of 4.434%

US treasury auctions off $69 billion at a high yield of 4.434% High yield 4.434%Tail -2.3 basis points vs six month average of 0.2 basis pointsBid to cover 2.81X vs six month average of 2.58X. Best since August 2023Direct (a measure o domestic demand) 14.42% versus six month average of 21.0%. Weakest since Jan of

U.S. Treasury auctions off $69 billion of 2-year notes at a high yield of 4.434% Read More »

Market dynamics in focus: Today’s winners and losers guide strategic shifts

Overview of Today’s Stock Market Dynamics Investors and traders continue to navigate a patchwork of performance across various sectors in today’s trading session. A look at the latest stock market heatmap provides valuable insights into sector leaders and laggards, informing strategies in a market characterized by mixed sentiments. Technology and Semiconductors: A Mixed Picture Semiconductors

Market dynamics in focus: Today’s winners and losers guide strategic shifts Read More »

BOC rate decision and lower oil price help to push USDCAD higher. Technicals more bullish.

As the market awaits the Bank of Canada rate decision tomorrow, the USDCAD has moved higher in anticipation of a cut in rates. Also helping the pair is sharply lower oil prices which has take the price down nearly 8% from the high reached last Wednesday (today the price bounced off of $76.40). Technically, the

BOC rate decision and lower oil price help to push USDCAD higher. Technicals more bullish. Read More »

Kickstart the FX trading day for July 23 w/a technical look @ EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

In the kickstart video for July 23, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, it traded up and down yesterday and tried to get back above its 200-hour moving average (green line), but could not find any upside momentum on the breaks above. As a result, buyers turned

Kickstart the FX trading day for July 23 w/a technical look @ EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD Read More »

The closing bell rings and the tech sector/small cap stocks lead the way in tandem

The closing bell rings, and the tech sector/small cap stocks lead the way higher in tandem with each other today. Last week, the Russell outperformed vs the NASDAQ on a rotation out to high cap tech into the small cap stock sector. . Both the NASDAQ and the small-cap Russell 2000 rose by around 1.6%

The closing bell rings and the tech sector/small cap stocks lead the way in tandem Read More »

Forexlive European FX news wrap 23 July – The US Dollar remains in the driver’s seat

Silver hangs on at the June lows for nowDollar keeps on firmer footing following last week’s advanceAUD/USD looks poised for longest losing streak since August last yearJapanese yen continues to find bids in the early stages this weekEuropean equities open in a more mixed mood to start the dayWhat are the main events for today?ECB’s

Forexlive European FX news wrap 23 July – The US Dollar remains in the driver’s seat Read More »

Analyst says the “forces underway for inflation to fall like a rock are in place”

Tom Lee is Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder and head of research. Spoke with CNBC on Monday. He is expecting inflation data from the US due on Friday (PCE) to be cooler. “One print can be uncertain, but I think the forces underway for inflation to fall like a rock are in place”there do not seem

Analyst says the “forces underway for inflation to fall like a rock are in place” Read More »

Major European indices close mixed. German DAX higher. France CAC and UK FTSE lower

The major European indices are ending the day with mixed results. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.77%France CAC, -0.31%UK FTSE 100 -0.38%Spain’s Ibex, +0.61%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.07% Benchmark 10 year yields or trading modestly lower: As London/European traders had for the exits, the major US stock indices are trading higher: Dow

Major European indices close mixed. German DAX higher. France CAC and UK FTSE lower Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2746 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2746 – Reuters estimate Read More »

Richmond Fed July manufacturing index -17 vs. -7 expected

Manufacturing index -17 vs. -7 expected and -10 prior.Services index 5 vs. -11 prior.Manufacturing shipments index -21 vs. -9 prior. Fifth District manufacturing activity worsened in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −10 in June to −17 in July. Of its

Richmond Fed July manufacturing index -17 vs. -7 expected Read More »

Forex vs. Futures Trading: A Comparative Analysis

Diving into the world of financial markets, investors are often faced with the choice between Forex and Futures trading. Both avenues offer unique opportunities and come with their own sets of risks and rewards. Understanding the key differences between these two types of trading can help investors make more informed decisions. But which trading option

Forex vs. Futures Trading: A Comparative Analysis Read More »

Ufunded.com Unveils High-Tech Headquarters in Dubai’s Iconic Opus Tower

Ufunded.com has opened its futuristic headquarters in the heart of Dubai, spanning across a third of an entire floor in the prestigious Opus Tower, designed by the legendary Zaha Hadid. The new headquarters reflect Hadid’s futuristic vision and align seamlessly with Ufunded.com’s disruptive ethos. Overlooking the expansive Dubai skyline in 360°, including iconic landmarks such

Ufunded.com Unveils High-Tech Headquarters in Dubai’s Iconic Opus Tower Read More »

Secret Service Director Cheatle resigns according to sources.

The Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resigns according to sources. The move comes after intense questioning from House Oversight Committee members yesterday harshly criticizing the director related to the recent assassination attempt on former Pres. Donald Trump. During her testimony yesterday, she acknowledged significant and colossal security failures at the rally. One rallygoer died from

Secret Service Director Cheatle resigns according to sources. Read More »

Broader US indices extend to new session highs. Gains are led by the NASDAQ index

The US broader indices are trading at at session highs. The gains are led by the NASDAQ and the switch is currently up 114 points or 0.64%. At session lows, the price approached its rising 200 hour moving average, but found early buyers against at that level. That kept the buyers and control. There is

Broader US indices extend to new session highs. Gains are led by the NASDAQ index Read More »

TD on gold, wary of downside risks from many directions, including an “Asian buyer strike”

Amongst concerns TD ennumerate on gold are: discretionary trader positioning “remains bloated” (to the long side), which means positioning risks are now asymmetrically skewed to the downsidefroth above and beyond what is consistent with expectations of Fed cutsAsia on a buyer’s strikenotable long liquidations on Shanghai Futures Exchange TD says a “a liquidity vacuum could

TD on gold, wary of downside risks from many directions, including an “Asian buyer strike” Read More »

Deutsche Bank expect further losses still to come for large cap tech stocks

Via CNBC, thoughts from Deutsche Bank on further losses still to come for large cap tech stocks: rotation away from big tech into small caps that happened will be more than a short-term blipmarket is still pricing in too much optimism about the growth areas of the market that have led most of the bull

Deutsche Bank expect further losses still to come for large cap tech stocks Read More »

USDCHF breaks above resistance today after the 200 day MA based the pair at the low

The USDCHF waffled up and down during yesterday’s trade, but late yesterday early today, the price did find support buyers against its 200 day moving average and 38.2% retracement near 0.8883.That was “the tell” for traders, and the buyers entered. The price has since moved higher and extended above the 38.2% retracement of the move

USDCHF breaks above resistance today after the 200 day MA based the pair at the low Read More »

South Korean June PPI +2.5% y/y, seventh straight month of higher

South Korean Producer Price Index for June 2024: -0.1% m/m prior +0.1% +2.5% y/y prior +2.3% The Bank of Korea is eyeing rising inflation but there are signs it’ll begin to fall from August. SK’s finance minister is thinking the same – says inflation may temporarily rebound higher in Julyu, it should stabilise from Augsyt.

South Korean June PPI +2.5% y/y, seventh straight month of higher Read More »

Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing business outlook for July -10.0 versus +15.1 in June

The Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing activity in the region declined in July, as reported by the firms in the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Key indicators such as general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues turned negative. The full-time employment index also suggested a decline in employment. Both price indexes showed continued overall price

Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing business outlook for July -10.0 versus +15.1 in June Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 22 Jul: Markets digest the Biden exit & Harris entrance

Analyst says the “forces underway for inflation to fall like a rock are in place”The closing bell rings and the tech sector/small cap stocks lead the way in tandemCrude oil futures settle at $79.78Israel PM Netanyahu and US Pres. Biden meeting postponed until Wednesday/ThursdayMore on Schumer and Jeffries: Are due to meet with Harris shortlyCNN:

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 22 Jul: Markets digest the Biden exit & Harris entrance Read More »

UBS says PBOC 0.1% rate cut on Monday maybe just a ‘down payment’ on more to come

There were a string of policy easings from the People’s Bank of China yesterday, summarised here: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: A series of easings from the People’s Bank of China Via UBS on the Bank’s rate cuts: The decision of the People’s Bank of China to cut rates by 0.1 percentage point was perhaps

UBS says PBOC 0.1% rate cut on Monday maybe just a ‘down payment’ on more to come Read More »

ECB’s de Guindos: September is a much more convenient month for taking decisions

Will look particularly closely at wage developmentsCurrent level of uncertainty is huge, so have to be prudent when taking decisions The comments don’t add anything to the prevailing outlook. They’ve already said before July that they will defer their next “live” decision to September, so this just continues that. This article was written by Justin

ECB’s de Guindos: September is a much more convenient month for taking decisions Read More »

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The US Dollar came back with a vengeance

Fundamental Overview The USD regained some strength in latter part of last week. From the monetary policy perspective, nothing has changed as the market continues to expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year and sees some chances of a back-to-back cut in November. The data continues to suggest that the

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The US Dollar came back with a vengeance Read More »

European Central Bank chief economist Lane speaks on fiscal & monetary policy Tuesday

0700 GMT / 0300 US Eastern time, European Central Bank chief economist and board member Philip Lane will be giving opening remarks at a joint conference of the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, and IMF Economic Review “Global Challenges and Channels for Fiscal and Monetary Policy” in Frankfurt, Germany This article was written by

European Central Bank chief economist Lane speaks on fiscal & monetary policy Tuesday Read More »

JP Morgan is Leaning Towards a Hold at This Week’s BoC Meeting

JP Morgan considers the upcoming Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting to be a close call but leans towards the BoC holding rates steady. Governor Macklem has previously emphasized a gradual easing approach to avoid jeopardizing progress on inflation. Recent data showing reacceleration in core inflation and wage firming, despite some labor market softening, suggests a

JP Morgan is Leaning Towards a Hold at This Week’s BoC Meeting Read More »

China’s loan collateral tweak will ease ‘asset famine’

Yesterday the People’s Bank of China lowered the collateral requirement for medium-term loans: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: A series of easings from the People’s Bank of China The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it would lower the collateral requirement for the medium-term lending facility (MLF) loan to increase the size of tradable bonds

China’s loan collateral tweak will ease ‘asset famine’ Read More »

Macquarie analysts reiterate that “Trump 2.0 will be a more inflationary policy regime”

I posted last week on Macquarie pointing to populist economic policies as “inflationary by design“, and that the Fed’s easing cycle may be shallower than presumed: while US inflation may continue to stay low in the next few months and allow the Fed to start easing in September, once ‘popunomics’ is invoked, inflation will be

Macquarie analysts reiterate that “Trump 2.0 will be a more inflationary policy regime” Read More »

Vice President Harris speaking – presenting policy position

Scanning here comments there isn’t much of relevance for markets yet: gun laws – universal background checks, assault weapons banwill support Congress passing reproductive freedom laws Yeah, nothing on economic policy in this speech, but a heads up if you are interested. Harris vs. Trump This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Vice President Harris speaking – presenting policy position Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1334 (vs. estimate at 7.2746)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1334 (vs. estimate at 7.2746) Read More »

Westpac on AUD/USD – look to dips into the 0.6625-35 zone as buying opportunities

A snippet from WPAC on the Australian dollar, in brief for the week ahead: AUD might find support from a likely very benign US June PCE this week, reinforcing September Fed rate cut pricing, while Biden dropping out of the US presidential race likely stymies the rush to bullish-USD Trump trades for the time being.

Westpac on AUD/USD – look to dips into the 0.6625-35 zone as buying opportunities Read More »

The AUD and the easing from China – given more a nudge lower

The Australian and New Zealand dollars have been on the soft side. Yesterday’s easings from the People’s Bank of China not bolstering them either. The summary of the PBOC is here ICYMI: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: A series of easings from the People’s Bank of China NAB comments via Reuters report: “For the Aussie

The AUD and the easing from China – given more a nudge lower Read More »

US SEC approves first spot ether ETFs to start trading Tuesday (July 23, 2024)

Reuters have the report, citing The U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission has told at least two of the eight firms that have applied to launch the first U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to the price of ether that their products can begin trading on Tuesday. Products from BlackRock, VanEck and six others will begin trading

US SEC approves first spot ether ETFs to start trading Tuesday (July 23, 2024) Read More »

Australian Consumer Confidence Index, weekly survey, hits its highest in 6 months

A better showing for this indicator of consumer sentiment in Australia. Comes in this week at 84.4 a 6 month highprior 78.5 The 5.9 point rise is the largest rise in a week since April 2021 ANZ says: Each of the subindices rose by at least 5pts AUD/USD is little changed around 0.6643 This article

Australian Consumer Confidence Index, weekly survey, hits its highest in 6 months Read More »

A warning not to get too complacent on politics from PIMCO: Still 3.5 months to go!”

The US presidential election, so far, has had significant implications for trade, prompting swings across markets. PIMCO with the timely warning: In what has been a series of stranger than fiction events – from the disaster of the debate to the assassination attempt of former President Trump to the first time an incumbent president is

A warning not to get too complacent on politics from PIMCO: Still 3.5 months to go!” Read More »

Israel PM Netanyahu and US Pres. Biden meeting postponed until Wednesday/Thursday

The meeting between Israeli PM Netanyahu and US Pres. Biden is to be postponed until Wednesday and perhaps Thursday, depending on the president’s health. Biden has Covid and is doing well, but has been absent from the public. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Israel PM Netanyahu and US Pres. Biden meeting postponed until Wednesday/Thursday Read More »

NZDUSD downtrend persists, breaches key Fibonacci level. AUDUSD also lower.

The NZDUSD has continued its run lower (SEE CHART ABOVE) started last week after the pair initially found resistance against its 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (higher blue line at 0.6082 at the time), 100-day moving average at 0.6060, 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low at 0.60363Downward sloping

NZDUSD downtrend persists, breaches key Fibonacci level. AUDUSD also lower. Read More »

US stocks are set to open higher as relief from Biden’s withdrawal provides a boost

The US stocks are set to open higher with the NASDAQ index leading the way. Recall from last week, the NASDAQ index had its worst training week since April 15, falling by -3.65%. The S&P index fell by -1.97%, but the rotation sent the Dow industrial average up 0.72%. The Russell 2000 also advanced last

US stocks are set to open higher as relief from Biden’s withdrawal provides a boost Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steady but mixed, stocks look to bounce back

Headlines: USD/JPY slides lower ahead of European morning tradeUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – Keep an eye on this important resistanceECB’s Kažimír: Market pricing of two rate cuts by year-end is not entirely misplacedBundesbank calls for rate cuts to be “carefully considered” as inflation risk persistsPBOC lowers standing lending facility rates by 10 bpsSNB total sight deposits

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steady but mixed, stocks look to bounce back Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2624 – Reuters estimate

Earlier from the People’s Bank of China: PBoC announces cut to 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.70% from 1.80% *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2624 – Reuters estimate Read More »

Tech sector shines: A deep dive into today’s market resilience

Today’s US Stock Market Overview Today’s US stock market showcases a robust performance in the tech sector, with noticeable gains from key players. This sturdy performance comes amidst a backdrop of mixed sentiments in other sectors, evidencing a dynamic trading landscape ready for strategic investments. Sector Spotlight Technology Sector: The technology sector is looking particularly

Tech sector shines: A deep dive into today’s market resilience Read More »

VP Harris speaking at WH: Biden’s legacy of accomplishment is unmatched in modern history

Biden is feeling betterLegacy of Biden accomplishment is unmatched in modern history Meanwhile, billionaire Michael Bloomberg is putting support behind the Dems and says: Democrats now have a chance for fresh start, have four weeks to take pulse of the voters before the convention starts. Initial thoughts that WV Sen. Manchin would make a run

VP Harris speaking at WH: Biden’s legacy of accomplishment is unmatched in modern history Read More »

Trouble for China hedge funds? Reuters: Brace for upheaval from tough new rules

Reuters with the info, and the worrisome headline: China hedge funds brace for upheaval from tough new rules In brief: China’s $715 billion hedge fund industry is facing renewed pressure from stringent regulations coming into effect next month, forcing some investment firms to seek fresh capital from white knights or even shut shop. New guidelines

Trouble for China hedge funds? Reuters: Brace for upheaval from tough new rules Read More »

The money taps have been turned on again for the Democrats since Biden’s announcement

Social media, and traditional media reporting a sum in excess of USD50mn has been donated to the Democrats. One of the key concerns of the party was the drying up donations under an incumbent President deemed unfit to run. That seems to have been reversed now. This election looks like a contest again. This article

The money taps have been turned on again for the Democrats since Biden’s announcement Read More »

Kickstart the FX trading for July 22 w/a technical look at the EURUSD , USDJPY & GBPUSD

The kickstart video each day looks at the 3 major currency pairs from a technical perspective. Those 3 pairs include the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. To start the trading week, the price action is mostly up-and-down in those three major currency pairs. EURUSD: The EURUSD moved higher but fell just short of its resistance target

Kickstart the FX trading for July 22 w/a technical look at the EURUSD , USDJPY & GBPUSD Read More »

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Keep an eye on this important resistance

Fundamental Overview The USD regained some strength in latter part of last week. From the monetary policy perspective, nothing has changed as the market continues to expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year and sees some chances of a back-to-back cut in November. The data continues to suggest that the

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Keep an eye on this important resistance Read More »

ECB’s Kažimír: Market pricing of two rate cuts by year-end is not entirely misplaced

No need to rush decisionsData will set the stage for September decisionThe door remains open to additional easing should conditions warrant it The ECB narrative now is that they would want to cut rates further but are going to let the data in the coming weeks to decide that. Not much of a change to

ECB’s Kažimír: Market pricing of two rate cuts by year-end is not entirely misplaced Read More »

Bundesbank calls for rate cuts to be “carefully considered” as inflation risk persists

Some of the factors supporting the economy are making it more difficult to achieve inflation targetThe labour markets is still operating at a high capacityWage growth is brisk and prices are rising strongly, particularly in the services sectorPossible further interest rate cuts should therefore be carefully considered in light of current data Besides that, they

Bundesbank calls for rate cuts to be “carefully considered” as inflation risk persists Read More »

The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins

The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed after the weekend news of the Pres. Biden stepping down and endorsement of Kamala Harris as the Presidential candidate. Can she turn the Dem story and negative momentum around? Who will be her VP candidate

The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins Read More »

Bank of England Executive Director, Markets, speak Monday on its balance sheet

1330 GMT / 0930 US Eastern time will bring Bank of England’s Executive Director, Markets, Victoria Saporta. Speaking at AFME seminar ‘The future Bank of England balance sheet – managing its transition towards a new system for supplying reserves’ will discuss the Bank’s latest thinking on the future of its balance sheet, and how it

Bank of England Executive Director, Markets, speak Monday on its balance sheet Read More »

Copper Technical Analysis – The PBoC rate cuts might reverse the recent rout

Fundamental Overview Copper experienced a strong rout last week with market participants blaming the soft Chinese economic data and the increase in inventories in most global warehouses suggesting some weak demand. The PBoC tonight surprised with rate cuts across many key benchmarks. Moreover, the recent PBoC policy framework reform suggests that the Chinese officials could

Copper Technical Analysis – The PBoC rate cuts might reverse the recent rout Read More »

Nvidia reportedly working on version of new flagship AI chip just for Chinese market

The report cites three sources familiar with the matter. And it pertains to Nvidia’s “Blackwell” chip series, which was unveiled during March. The chip is due to be mass produced later this year with the sources saying Nvidia will work with Inspur, who is one of the firm’s major distributors in China, on the launch

Nvidia reportedly working on version of new flagship AI chip just for Chinese market Read More »

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – The bullish bias remains intact

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin rallied strongly last week after a failed attempt to assassinate the former US President Trump. The market reacted positively to the event because he’s been a supporter of the crypto industry and Trump’s odds of winning the election soared. Last night, the price of Bitcoin dipped on the news that Biden dropped

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – The bullish bias remains intact Read More »

Monday morning open levels, indicative FX rates 22July2024, little change from late Friday

Justin was lightning fast with the breaking news on Sunday afternoon US time: It’s finally Joever Major FX rates are little changed on the political news, minor wiggles for major FX only. As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices

Monday morning open levels, indicative FX rates 22July2024, little change from late Friday Read More »

Hang Seng Index Technical Analysis – Will the rate cuts be enough for a rally?

Fundamental Overview The PBoC tonight surprised with rate cuts across many key benchmarks. It’s no secret that rate cuts are generally positive for stocks, but the question will be if it’s going to be enough for a sustained rally after the big correction from the cycle high set on May 20th. The recent PBoC policy

Hang Seng Index Technical Analysis – Will the rate cuts be enough for a rally? Read More »

PBOC to lower collateral for Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) loans

People’s Bank of China: To lower collateral requirements for medium term lending facility loans from julyThe move is meant to increase the size of tradable bonds in the marketMove is to alleviate pressure on supply and demand of bonds in the market PBOC is wading in to easing, this from earlier: PBoC announces cut to

PBOC to lower collateral for Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) loans Read More »

Early Monday FX rates – 22 July 2024 – US dollar little changed after Biden pulls out

I posted the bleary-eyed super-early rates here: Monday morning open levels, indicative FX rates 22July2024, little change from late Friday Just updating now after the huge political news on Sunday from the US, Biden has dropped out of the presidential election: It’s finally Joever Its still very early here in Asia, just before 7 am

Early Monday FX rates – 22 July 2024 – US dollar little changed after Biden pulls out Read More »

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period began on the weekend

The ‘blackout’ policy from the Federal Reserve limits the extent to which Federal Open Market Committee participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews. The period begins the two Saturdays preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and ends the Thursday following the decision (decisions are always on Wednesdays). That was on the

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period began on the weekend Read More »

PBoC announces cut to 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.70% from 1.80%

People’s Bank of China has cut its interest rate for the 7-day reverse report to 1.7% from 1.8% PBOC will strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment to “better support the real economy” The rate cut is, at the margin, a headwind for yuan … but the strengthening of the counter cyclical adjustment is the opposite! The rate

PBoC announces cut to 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.70% from 1.80% Read More »

PBOC cut 7-day rates, eased requirements for 1 year MLF loans. LPS ahead – a cut looming?

The People’s Bank of China has cut rates: PBoC announces cut to 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.70% from 1.80% And have also eased MLF requirements: PBOC to lower collateral for Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) loans The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting is due at 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time). The cuts we have

PBOC cut 7-day rates, eased requirements for 1 year MLF loans. LPS ahead – a cut looming? Read More »

Economic calendar in Asia Monday, July 22, 2024 – China monetary policy rate setting day

The People’s Bank of China announces the 1- and 5-year loan prime rates on Monday, 22 July 2024. The announcement is usually on the 20th, but since that was on Saturday it’ll be today instead. Last week we had the monthly Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) setting: The PBoC has kept the 1-year MLF interest rate

Economic calendar in Asia Monday, July 22, 2024 – China monetary policy rate setting day Read More »

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: A series of easings from the People’s Bank of China

Bank of England Executive Director, Markets, speak Monday on its balance sheetThe money taps have been turned on again for the Democrats since Biden’s announcementPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1335 (vs. estimate at 7.2624)China cuts 1 and 5 year loan prime rates by 10 basis points eachPBOC cut 7-day rates, eased

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: A series of easings from the People’s Bank of China Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1335 (vs. estimate at 7.2624)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1335 (vs. estimate at 7.2624) Read More »

Unnamed sources say that all 50 Democratic US State Chairs back Harris

Via Reuters: All 50 Democratic party state chairs have thrown their weight behind Vice President Kamala Harris to be the party’s new presidential nominee, according to sources familiar with the matter. The Democratic nomination is still a month away. *** US President Biden removed himself from the race for the 2024 election. It was not

Unnamed sources say that all 50 Democratic US State Chairs back Harris Read More »

Here we go – US equity index futures markets are open for the week’s trade!

Globex has opened for trade, brought to you by the CME! The big news markets are responding to is the withdrawal of US President Biden from the 2024 presidential election. Justin was all over the weekend news as it happened! It’s finally Joever The USD is little changed, EUR/USD is circa 1.0886 and USD/JPY circa

Here we go – US equity index futures markets are open for the week’s trade! Read More »

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include US PCE, BoC, PBoC LPR, PMI’s and Tokyo CPI

Week Ahead 22nd-26th July: Mon: PBoC LPRTue: NBH Policy Announcement; US Existing Home Sales (Jun), Richmond Fed (Jul), EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Jul)Wed: BoC Policy Announcement & MPR; Japanese Flash PMIs (Jul), German GfK (Aug), EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Jul)Thu: CBR Announcement, CBRT Announcement; EZ M3 (Jun), German Ifo (Jul), US Durable Goods

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include US PCE, BoC, PBoC LPR, PMI’s and Tokyo CPI Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Something of a ‘sell everything’ day

Canada May retail sales -0.8% vs -0.6% expectedBiden’s family has started discussing his exit plan – reportCanada industrial product prices for June 0.0% vs 0.2% expectedFed’s Williams: Central banks must own the inflation-control missionAdd Dem Senator Heinrich to the ranks of “It is time to quit Joe”… and more.Crowdstrike CEO: Many customers rebooting systems, could

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Something of a ‘sell everything’ day Read More »

How would the bond and FX markets react to Biden dropping out of the race?

The bond market is usually the first to figure things out but even it’s struggling with the political turmoil and economic uncertainty right now. Notably, long dated Treasury yields jumped in the immediate aftermath of the debate on June 28 in a signal about a Republican sweep coupled with further tax cut and a deficit

How would the bond and FX markets react to Biden dropping out of the race? Read More »

Buying FTSE China A50 index (XIN9) on the monthly chart

FTSE China A50 Index Futures: A practical guide for investors The FTSE China A50 Index Futures (ticker: XIN9) are a vital tool for international investors aiming to tap into China’s vibrant A-share market. Traded on the Singapore Exchange (SGX), these futures mirror the performance of the 50 largest A-share companies listed on the Shanghai and

Buying FTSE China A50 index (XIN9) on the monthly chart Read More »

Credit Agricole: GBP remains a best G10 FX bet despite risk aversion

Credit Agricole sees GBP as one of the best-performing G10 currencies, despite recent setbacks due to returning risk aversion and stickier-than-expected UK inflation. The GBP’s relative strength is attributed to expectations that the BoE will maintain rates, reinforcing its status as a top performer in the G10 FX space. Key Points: Recent Performance: End of

Credit Agricole: GBP remains a best G10 FX bet despite risk aversion Read More »

Stocks move to new lows. Crowdstrike down -10.66%. Musk says “We just deleted Crowdstrike”

Overnight Crowdstrike uploaded an update that crashed Microsoft products and in turn many businesses. I am still having some issues with my technology. Crowdstrike shares are down -10.60% at $306.40. At least the stock is off the low at $290.10. Meanwhile, the major indices have moved to new lows in the current hourly bar. Dow

Stocks move to new lows. Crowdstrike down -10.66%. Musk says “We just deleted Crowdstrike” Read More »

Market mosaic: Navigating through a mixed performance landscape

Market mosaic: Navigating through a mixed performance landscape Today’s stock market presents a vibrant tapestry of performances across various sectors, illustrated vividly in the latest heatmap snapshot. As markets oscillate, understanding sectoral dynamics becomes crucial for informed investment strategies. 📉 Technology Sector: A close scrutiny The technology sector shows a divergent performance with Microsoft (MSFT)

Market mosaic: Navigating through a mixed performance landscape Read More »

Biden’s family has started discussing his exit plan – report

NBC reports that Biden’s family has specifically discussed how he wants to end his campaign, including the timing. They cite sources. Biden’s family members have specifically discussed how he would want to end his re-election bid on his own timing and with a carefully calculated plan in place. Considerations about the impact of the campaign

Biden’s family has started discussing his exit plan – report Read More »

Fed’s Williams set to speak on ‘A new era for monetary policy’

I’m curious to hear exact what this ‘new era’ looks like because I strongly suspect it will be just like the old era where central banks are behind the curve and forecast poorly. Fingers crossed that the ‘new era’ isn’t the same old talking points about high and sticky inflation. In terms of monetary policy,

Fed’s Williams set to speak on ‘A new era for monetary policy’ Read More »

Tech shares fall as global IT outage greets Europe in the morning

It is just about everywhere and the Australian government has even called an emergency meeting amid the whole fiasco. Trading brokerages are also impacted but that hasn’t stopped the selling in the meantime. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.3% on the day with Nasdaq futures down 0.5%. Microsoft shares in Frankfurt are also down

Tech shares fall as global IT outage greets Europe in the morning Read More »

USDCAD higher on the day. Retail sales weak pave the way for a BOC rate cut next week.

The USDCAD has climbed higher during the North American session following weaker-than-expected retail sales earlier today. This, coupled with a weaker CPI earlier this week, sets the stage for a rate cut by the Bank of Canada next week (Wednesday). Technically, the price has broken above a downward sloping trendline, maintaining the bullish trend established

USDCAD higher on the day. Retail sales weak pave the way for a BOC rate cut next week. Read More »

China news conference on the Third Plenum is due at the top of the hour

Chinese Communist Party Third Plenum has concluded. The news conference with some details, I don’t expect too many, is due at 10am Beijing time 0200 GMT2200 US Eastern time The property sector has been a huge, and prolonged, drag on the economy. More support measures are likely. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

China news conference on the Third Plenum is due at the top of the hour Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Global tech outage chaos, futures recover after brief dip

Headlines: Global tech outages impact markets at the European openTech shares fall as global IT outage greets Europe in the morningMicrosoft says underlying issue causing the tech outage has been resolvedECB’s Villeroy: market expectations on rates seem rather reasonableECB’s Muller: It’s important not to pre-commit on SeptemberECB’s Šimkus: I agree with markets which sees two

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Global tech outage chaos, futures recover after brief dip Read More »

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Upward Price Trend Breaks Through Key Resistance Levels

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a notable upward price trend, fueled by significant exchange outflows and bullish sentiment, with many eyeing the $72,000 mark as a potential target. This article focuses on the technical factors driving this trend and explores emerging opportunities in the crypto market such as the Minotaurus ($MTAUR) presale. Bitcoin (BTC) on the

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Upward Price Trend Breaks Through Key Resistance Levels Read More »

Add Dem Senator Heinrich to the ranks of “It is time to quit Joe”

The “calls to quit” line gets longer with Dem Senator Heinrich, and then you watch GOP Nominee Trump ramble and ramble in his acceptance speech when he had a chance to unite. SMH. Anyone one candidate is nominated. The Dems convention is not until August 19-22. Will Biden step down this weekend? PS Meanwhile, Biden

Add Dem Senator Heinrich to the ranks of “It is time to quit Joe” Read More »

The USD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. UK retail sales was weaker overnight (-1.2% versus -0.6% estimate) The big news is the global downage as a result of a software update at Crowdstrike that then impacted Microsoft (and others) grounded airlines and impacted many businesses

The USD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins Read More »

Four more House Democrats call for Biden to quit the campaign

Representatives Jared Huffman of California, Marc Veasey of Texas, Mark Pocan of Wisconsin and Jesus “Chuy” Garcia of Illinois issued a joint letter to Mr. Biden on Friday morning saying: “It is now time for you to pass the torch to a new generation of Democratic leaders… “We must face the reality that widespread public

Four more House Democrats call for Biden to quit the campaign Read More »

Fed’s Williams: Central banks must own the inflation-control mission

Fed remains committed to achieving the 2% inflation targetPrice stability is key to financial stabilityLonger run trends affecting R-star are still in place The comments are slowly rolling out, it doesn’t appear there is a text of the speech released. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Williams: Central banks must own the inflation-control mission Read More »

USDCHF rebounds near resistance at 0.8900, potential for reversal

The USDCHF has continued to rebound from its session lows earlier this week, and in doing so, it has moved back above the 200-day moving average (MA) and the broken 38.2% retracement level. However, it is currently encountering resistance around the falling 100-hour MA near 0.8900, which aligns closely with the high of a recent

USDCHF rebounds near resistance at 0.8900, potential for reversal Read More »

Canada May retail sales -0.8% vs -0.6% expected

Prior was +0.7% (revised to +0.6%)Ex autos -1.3% vs -0.5% expectedPrior ex-autos +1.8% (revised to +1.7%)Ex autos and gasoline -1.4% vs +1.4% prior Largest decrease in sales was at food and beverage retailers (-1.9%)Lower sales in May were also reported at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-2.7%) and general merchandise retailers (-1.0%)Preliminary

Canada May retail sales -0.8% vs -0.6% expected Read More »

Nasdaq Technical Analysis – The bearish momentum looks to be waning

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been on the backfoot recently as the goldilocks data led to a strong rotation into small caps stocks. Yesterday, there was general weakness across all the indices although it wasn’t triggered by any catalyst. The fundamentals haven’t changed, on the contrary, they strengthened the case for a soft landing. The

Nasdaq Technical Analysis – The bearish momentum looks to be waning Read More »

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – The pullback extends further

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been on the backfoot recently as the goldilocks data led to a strong rotation into small caps stocks. Yesterday, there was general weakness across all the indices although it wasn’t triggered by any catalyst. The fundamentals haven’t changed, on the contrary, they strengthened the case for a soft landing.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – The pullback extends further Read More »

Fed’s Logan: We’re making progress in getting banks ready to use the discount window

Fed emergency lending programs have been effectiveAll eligible banks should be prepared for the discount window This doesn’t relate to monetary policy and isn’t a market mover but it’s critical that the Fed gets this right ahead of the next crisis (whenever it is). This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Logan: We’re making progress in getting banks ready to use the discount window Read More »

Microsoft says underlying issue causing the tech outage has been resolved

The cause pointed out by Microsoft was that there was a flawed update of CrowdStrike program that took down its systems. That has resulted in massive IT failures and outages across the globe, hindering services and businesses all around. CrowdStrike did also earlier say that they had deployed a fix to the issue while confirming

Microsoft says underlying issue causing the tech outage has been resolved Read More »

Kickstart the FX trading day for July 19 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

In the kickstart video for July 19th, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD has moved down continuing the decline from yesterday, and in the process tested its rising 200 hour moving average at 1.08794. That moving average will be a key barometer on

Kickstart the FX trading day for July 19 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD Read More »

Crowdstrike CEO: Many customers rebooting systems, could be some time for some to recover

The Crowdstrike outage is continuing and we have some details from the CEO who spoke with NBC: Says only Microsoft operating system is affectedWe are working with every customer to bring them back onlineIssue has been resolved, now issue is recovering systemsFull interview This is a real mess. Crowdstrike shares have been a market darling

Crowdstrike CEO: Many customers rebooting systems, could be some time for some to recover Read More »

Explosion reported in Tel Aviv – cause is unclear – looks to be near US consulate

The US dollar has popped. But gold has dropped. Correlation is not necessarily causation. There is no other fresh news about. The reports are not on mainstream media, only social sources for now. Added: Initial reports suggest a car bombin the Ben Yehuda area of Tel Avivnear several embassies and diplomatic sites including the US

Explosion reported in Tel Aviv – cause is unclear – looks to be near US consulate Read More »

Japan private sector economic council members say cant overlook weak yen negative effects

more to come Japan’s government cut growth forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2025 to a 0.9% expansion from a 1.3% gain projected in January expects the economy to grow 1.2% in fiscal 2025consumption took a hit from rising import costs due to a weak yenprojected growth to accelerate next year on

Japan private sector economic council members say cant overlook weak yen negative effects Read More »

Japan finance minister Suzuki scolds government minister speaking about markets

Japan finance minister Suzuki: Also will attend G7 meetings to be held on the sidelines of g20 meetingsPlan to discuss various topics including world economy and currency at g20Hope that politicians should be mindful about commenting on market-related comments due to their impact It looks like Suzuki is responding to Kono earlier: Japan government minister

Japan finance minister Suzuki scolds government minister speaking about markets Read More »

European equities slightly lower at the open, tech outages reported globally

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.3%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.4% US futures have also erased earlier gains, with S&P 500 futures now down 0.1%. It is being reported that a major outage by Microsoft is also impacting banks, media outlets, and several other platforms. Of note, Sky News is down in

European equities slightly lower at the open, tech outages reported globally Read More »

Eurozone May current account balance €37.0 billion vs €38.6 billion prior

Prior €38.6 billion Slight delay in the release by the source. Looking at the details, surpluses were recorded for goods (€33 billion), services (€15 billion) and primary income (€4 billion). These were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€14 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Eurozone May current account balance €37.0 billion vs €38.6 billion prior Read More »

Canada industrial product prices for June 0.0% vs 0.2% expected

Prior IPPI prices 0.0% revised to 0.2%IPPI prices 0.0% versus 0.2% expectedIPPI prices YoY 2.8% Raw material price index -1.4% versus -0.7% expected. Prior month -1.5%RMPI YoY +7.5% for the 4th consecutive year-over-year increase. Base executed the level year-over-year increase as the RMPI fell -5.4% in May. THe June 2023 number showed at -2.0% decline

Canada industrial product prices for June 0.0% vs 0.2% expected Read More »

UK consumer confidence in July hits its highest in nearly 3 years

The GfK consumer confidence survey hit -13 in July expected -12, prior -14highest since September 2021subindex measuring consumers’ willingness to make major purchases jumped 7 points, an encouraging result Joe Staton, GfK’s client strategy director: “July’s consumer confidence poll suggests a note of caution as people wait to see exactly how the UK’s new government

UK consumer confidence in July hits its highest in nearly 3 years Read More »

There may be 130 million fewer Chinese people than thought

There is a wild story about China published by Newsweek today. It University of Wisconsin-Madison researcher Yi Fuxian who says China’s official population numbers are wrong and that the 1.41 billion population estimate is off by nearly 10%. Citing births and deaths data, he says the true figure is about 130 million people smaller. “Economically,

There may be 130 million fewer Chinese people than thought Read More »

China’s senior party official says China’s economic recovery is not strong enough

China’s senior party official for economic affairs: China’s economic recovery is not strong enoughNeed to implement macro policies more effectivelyShould speed up the issuance and use of special bondsShould give full play to the role of fiscal funds in leveraging economic growth and structural adjustmentMonetary policy should be flexible, moderate, accurate and effectiveMaintain reasonable and

China’s senior party official says China’s economic recovery is not strong enough Read More »

Unnamed source – Biden doing ‘soul searching’ amid calls to exit 2024 presidential race

Newswires conveying the latest scuttlebutt, citing unnamed “sources familiar with the matter” Biden is taking calls to step aside as the Democratic presidential candidate seriouslymultiple Democratic officials think an exit is a matter of time “His soul searching is actually happening, I know that for a fact,” said one of the sources, who requested anonymity.

Unnamed source – Biden doing ‘soul searching’ amid calls to exit 2024 presidential race Read More »

ECB’s Muller: It’s important not to pre-commit on September

It’s important that we wouldn’t promise too much in advance.It’s true that at least one more cut is expected by the market but I personally wouldn’t comment. There are still fluctuations on inflation. Wage growth is not in line with the 2% target.It’s realistic that in next 12 months inflation will keep to decelerate.The Eurozone

ECB’s Muller: It’s important not to pre-commit on September Read More »

Japan PM Kishida says need to be cautious about effect of rising prices due to weak yen

Careful on this folks. Kishida sounds like he is not happy with the weak yen. Reuters conveying report in Kyodo news: Govt must be vigilant about impact of rising prices, driven in part by weak yen, on economy to achieve domestic-demand driven recoverySays need to be cautious about effects of rising prices due to weak

Japan PM Kishida says need to be cautious about effect of rising prices due to weak yen Read More »

Trump’s Taiwan Comments: Textbook on How to Spook Investors

Traders and investors are not known for being timid. With mental and emotional toughness as a natural trait, few things can truly unsettle them. However, comments by former President Donald Trump have shaken their confidence. Shares of some of the world’s largest chipmakers have dropped following Trump’s statement that Taiwan, a key player in the

Trump’s Taiwan Comments: Textbook on How to Spook Investors Read More »

BOJ bond meeting minutes shows some mixed views on pace of tapering

It is highly uncertain to what extent financial firms can bear interest rate risk (1)BOJ should proceed cautiously with reduction of bond purchases (1)In order to stimulate demand, BOJ should swiftly reduce purchases to target level originally set to be achieved in over around two years’ time (2)Even if BOJ reduces amount significantly to start,

BOJ bond meeting minutes shows some mixed views on pace of tapering Read More »

Fed’s Daly sees inflation data improving, but says not at target yet

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participating in a ‘fireside chat’ at a conference: Recent data has been really goodEconomy is not there yet on inflationLabor market is coming back into balanceRisks on both side for monetary policy choicesFed remains data dependant for monetary policyPreemptive or urgent policy actions risk making mistakesWe

Fed’s Daly sees inflation data improving, but says not at target yet Read More »

Westpac eyeing Australia expected to follow the same broad disinflation trend as peers

A summary of a note from WPAC on inflation in Australia and the RBA: Recent inflation data overseas has reminded market participants that sticky inflation need not imply stuck inflation. After a few wobbles, disinflation has resumed in the United States, Canada and New Zealand. Expectations of near-term cuts in policy rates have therefore come

Westpac eyeing Australia expected to follow the same broad disinflation trend as peers Read More »

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD added a little to its gains

China’s senior party official says China’s economic recovery is not strong enoughJapan PM Kishida says need to be cautious about effect of rising prices due to weak yenJapan finance minister Suzuki scolds government minister speaking about marketsChina says it will encourage the development and expansion of private economyJapan private sector economic council members say cant

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD added a little to its gains Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2706 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2706 – Reuters estimate Read More »

UK June retail sales -1.2% vs -0.4% m/m expected

Prior +2.9%Retail sales -0.2% vs +0.2% y/y expectedPrior +1.3%; revised to +1.7%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -1.5% vs -0.5% m/m expectedPrior +2.9%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.8% vs +0.2% y/y expectedPrior +1.2%; revised to +1.6% That’s a disappointing reading and once again reaffirms that household spending continues to suffer amid higher prices in the UK.

UK June retail sales -1.2% vs -0.4% m/m expected Read More »

Economic calendar in Asia – Friday, 19 July 2024 – Japan inflation data for June

On the agenda today we have Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participating in a ‘fireside chat’ at a conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at the same event later, on “Accountability and Reform”. Also

Economic calendar in Asia – Friday, 19 July 2024 – Japan inflation data for June Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: ECB holds rates, the dollar perks up

ECB leaves key rates unchanged in July monetary policy decision, as expectedLagarde opening statement: Q2 growth was likely slower than Q1Lagarde Q&A: Question of what we do in September is wide open, will be data dependentECB sources: Officials consider if only one more cut is feasible in 2024Biden may be about to drop out –

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: ECB holds rates, the dollar perks up Read More »

China says it will encourage the development and expansion of private economy

China’s Senior Party Official For Policy Research: Promoting Chinese-style modernisation faces many complex contradictions and problems, but it is necessary China’s senior party official for deepening reform: We have consolidated and developed the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristicsWe will continue to improve and develop the socialist systemWe will inject strong impetus into

China says it will encourage the development and expansion of private economy Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1315 (vs. estimate at 7.2706)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1315 (vs. estimate at 7.2706) Read More »

Macquarie warns on populist US economic policies fuelling inflation, shallow Fed rate cuts

Macquarie analysts cited in a Dow Jones / Market Watch (gated) piece: US “neoliberal vision” of economic policy management may be fading outTaken over by a “populist economic vision” Macquarie analysts refer to the new populism as “popunomics” and say its “inflationary by design”: while US inflation may continue to stay low in the next

Macquarie warns on populist US economic policies fuelling inflation, shallow Fed rate cuts Read More »

Labour wants to avoid a repeat of the Liz Truss ‘mini-budget’ crisis

Liz Truss rose to the top of UK politics. Unfortunately, all she will be remembered for is being the shortest-serving UK Prime Minister ever, in large part due to a budget drafted by her Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng. On September 23, 2022 Kwarteng announced a mini-budget that proposed abolishing the 45% rate of

Labour wants to avoid a repeat of the Liz Truss ‘mini-budget’ crisis Read More »

Lagarde opening statement: Q2 growth was likely slower than Q1

More jobs were likely created in Q2, mainly in servicesLabour market is more resilientExpect recovery to be supported by consumptionMost inflation measures were either stable or edged down in JuneWages are still rising at an elevated rateLatest surveys indicate that wages will moderate over the next yearInflation expected to fluctuate around current levels for the

Lagarde opening statement: Q2 growth was likely slower than Q1 Read More »

Hawks on the ECB open to September rate cut provided upcoming data confirms disinflation

The traditional ECBs sources leak is out saying: ECB hawks open to September rate Provided upcoming data confirms disinflation underway Going back to the cut in June,, from the get-go, the ECB members felt uneasy about the cut. Since then, they seem to have been influenced by talking too much about a bias. Lagarde gave

Hawks on the ECB open to September rate cut provided upcoming data confirms disinflation Read More »

IMF says Fed should wait until at least late 2024 to cut rates

It would be prudent for the Fed to wait for clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to 2%US should consider scaling back tax exemptions for employer-paid health care, capital gains on the sale of primary residencesUS has a pressing need to reverse ongoing increase in public debtUS should consider progressively raising income tax rates,

IMF says Fed should wait until at least late 2024 to cut rates Read More »

USDCHF Technical Analysis – General US Dollar weakness sends the pair lower

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. This week, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should continue to support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for

USDCHF Technical Analysis – General US Dollar weakness sends the pair lower Read More »

ECB leaves key rates unchanged in July monetary policy decision, as expected

Prior decisionMain refinancing rate 4.25% vs 4.25% expectedPrior 4.25%Deposit facility rate 3.75% vs 3.75% expectedPrior 3.75%Marginal lending facility 4.50%Prior 4.50%Incoming information broadly supports previous assessment of inflation outlookNot pre-committing to a particular rate pathDetermined to ensure inflation returns to 2% target in a timely mannerWill keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary

ECB leaves key rates unchanged in July monetary policy decision, as expected Read More »

The technical bias in NASDAQ is tilting more to the downside after break of 200 hour MA

The Nasdaq index moved higher in the first few minutes of trading today, giving buyers some hope after the sharp move lower. Recall from yesterday (see post here and here), the Nasdaq moved down by over 500 points. In the post, I started to talk about the 200 hour MA as the next target. Today,

The technical bias in NASDAQ is tilting more to the downside after break of 200 hour MA Read More »

Several top Democrats say Biden will exit, possibly this weekend

Axios reports: Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend. There have been fresh calls for Biden to drop out today along with reports that Jeffries, Pelosi and Schumer

Several top Democrats say Biden will exit, possibly this weekend Read More »

GBPUSD sellers push price below rising MA, weakening bullish control

The GBPUSD moved higher yesterday, reaching its highest level since July 18, 2023, with a peak at 1.3043 before slowing. This move pushed the price above the July 28 high of 1.2995 and the psychological resistance at 1.3000. Today, however, the price has rotated lower, falling back below both the 1.3000 and 1.2995 levels, indicating

GBPUSD sellers push price below rising MA, weakening bullish control Read More »

Fed’s Goolsbee: I feel ‘a lot better’ about multiple months of improvement in CPI

It’s very clear that inflation has come way down in 12-18 monthsThis is about as fast as inflation has ever fallenInflation path isn’t done but it makes me feel a lot better to see components decline, including housing The labor market has been cooling to a position of better balanceSo far this doesn’t look like

Fed’s Goolsbee: I feel ‘a lot better’ about multiple months of improvement in CPI Read More »

Nasdaq Technical Analysis – The rotation continues to hit the tech heavy index

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq posted its biggest daily decline since December 2022 yesterday as the rotation out of big tech stocks into more rate sensitive names continues. We can clearly see this internal market dynamic unfolding as the Russell 2000 and the Dow keep on gaining. In the big picture, the fundamentals did not change,

Nasdaq Technical Analysis – The rotation continues to hit the tech heavy index Read More »

USDCAD technical bias has a little tilt to the upside this week. Can the buyers push more?

Yesterday at this time, the USDCAD was basing at the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart and moving above the 200-bar MA on the same chart. I noted that this price action tilted the technical bias to the upside (see my post by clicking HERE). However, the price couldn’t sustain the upward momentum and fell

USDCAD technical bias has a little tilt to the upside this week. Can the buyers push more? Read More »

Australian data: Q2 business survey shows conditions eased and forward indicators softened

Business conditions +5 index prior +10trading conditions and profitability both fell 6ptsemployment index fell 3ptsforward orders fell 4pts to -6 Business confidence -1 prior-2 NAB comments: “Consistent with our monthly business survey, today’s release shows business conditions eased in Q2 as slow economic growth and soft consumer demand weighed on firms,”“At +5, conditions are still

Australian data: Q2 business survey shows conditions eased and forward indicators softened Read More »

Copper Technical Analysis – The price continues to melt amid negative catalysts

Fundamental Overview Copper experienced a pretty strong selloff this week with market participants blaming the soft Chinese economic data and the increase in inventories in most global warehouses suggesting some weak demand. In the big picture, stable global growth and major central banks cutting rates into resilient economies should be bullish drivers for the copper

Copper Technical Analysis – The price continues to melt amid negative catalysts Read More »

US July Philly Fed +13.9 vs +2.9 expected

Prior was +1.3Six month index +38.7 vs +13.8 priorCapex +7.4 vs +12.1 priorEmployment: +15.2 vs -2.5 priorNew orders: +20.7 vs -2.2 priorPrices paid: +19.8 vs +22.5 priorPrices received: +24.2 vs +13.7 priorShipments: +27.8 vs -7.2 priorUnfilled orders: +9.1 vs +8.9 priorDelivery times: +8.5 vs -9.4 priorInventories: -9.4 vs -6.4 priorAvg employee workweek: -1.6 vs +4.8

US July Philly Fed +13.9 vs +2.9 expected Read More »

Former Bank of Japan Exec Director says Bank of Japan unlikely to raise rates this month

Hideo Hayakawa is a former Bank of Japan Executive Director and now a Senior Fellow at the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research. He spoke in an interview with Bloomberg, saying “I don’t think there’s a chance of a rate hike in July”: The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates this month Will

Former Bank of Japan Exec Director says Bank of Japan unlikely to raise rates this month Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steadies alongside risk mood, ECB up next

Headlines: Not much to get excited about the ECB meeting decision laterMajor currencies slow things down after the action yesterdayBOJ data does not suggest evidence of intervention on 17 JulyJapan chief Cabinet secretary says no comment on FX movesUK May ILO unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.4% expectedSwitzerland June trade balance CHF 6.18 billion vs CHF

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steadies alongside risk mood, ECB up next Read More »

US initial jobless claims 243K vs 230K estimate. Highest level since August of last year.

Prior week 222k revised to 223K.Initial jobless claims 243K vs. 230K estimate. Highest since August of last year.4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 234.75K vs 233.75K last weekprior week continuing claims 1.852M revised to 1.847M.Continuing claims 1.867M vs 1.855M estimate. This is the 6th week above 1.800M. Highest since November 2021.4-week moving average of

US initial jobless claims 243K vs 230K estimate. Highest level since August of last year. Read More »

USDJPY Technical Analysis – A key breakout increased the bearish momentum

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. This week, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should continue to support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for

USDJPY Technical Analysis – A key breakout increased the bearish momentum Read More »

The AUD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as the NA session begins

As the North American session begins the AUD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. Australia employment change was higher than expectations with a gain of 50.2 K vs 19.9K estimate. That helped to prop up the pair. The USD is mixed with little changes vs all the major currencies. Up-and-done trading has

The AUD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as the NA session begins Read More »

European equities look for a slight rebound after the more sluggish showing this week

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.9%Spain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% The selloff in tech shares yesterday weren’t too impactful for European indices, as they are less concentrated in that area in general. And the rotation into the Dow is arguably a net positive reflection for European stocks at the balance. In

European equities look for a slight rebound after the more sluggish showing this week Read More »

Federal Reserve speakers on Thursday include Logan, Daly, Bowman

All three are speaking before the “Exploring Conventional in an Unconventional World” conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Times below are in GMT / US Eastern time format. 1745/1345 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks2205/1805 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Federal Reserve speakers on Thursday include Logan, Daly, Bowman Read More »

Tech giants lead the charge: Analyzing today’s vibrant stock market dynamics

Spotlight on today’s market: Tech Titans Propel Stocks Forward Today’s stock market demonstrates a striking dynamism, particularly led by major technology entities. The prevailing mood among investors accompanies a cautious optimism, influenced notably by how specific sectors are reacting to ongoing economic developments. 🚀 Technology and Communication Services: A Surge of Green Nvidia (NVDA) impressively

Tech giants lead the charge: Analyzing today’s vibrant stock market dynamics Read More »

USDCHF bounces off the support target at 0.8819. Buyers are making a play.

In the video and post yesterday, I spoke of the support target between 0.8818 and 0.8825 (see: “USDCHF breaks lower below technical levels, increasing the bearish bias. What next?“). In that post (and in the video), I wrote On the downside, the next target area comes between 0.8818 and 0.8825. Below that is the 50%

USDCHF bounces off the support target at 0.8819. Buyers are making a play. Read More »

Von der Leyen re-elected at European Commission but vote split highlights tensions

Ursula von der Leyen has been re-elected as the President of the European Commission for a new five-year term but it wasn’t easy. Her re-election was supported by 401 deputies, with 284 voting against and 15 abstaining. It was a secret ballot with no one standing against her. In June, Italy’s Meloni abstained on the

Von der Leyen re-elected at European Commission but vote split highlights tensions Read More »

Lagarde Q&A: Question of what we do in September is wide open, will be data dependent

There is no pre-determined path for SeptemberSept projections plus other data will be taken into accountDecision today was unanimousSurveys indicate wage growth will decline in 2025 and 2026Various wage measures point in the direction of rather elevated levelsWe’re data dependent, not data-point dependentWe will stay in restrictive territory as long as is necessaryWe must look

Lagarde Q&A: Question of what we do in September is wide open, will be data dependent Read More »

Kickstart the FX trading day for July 18 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

In the kickstart video for July 18, 2024, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. The key levels are in play? What is the bias? the risk? the targets? for each pair and explain why. For other videos and posts on

Kickstart the FX trading day for July 18 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD Read More »

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY dropped to 155.50, recovered

Federal Reserve speakers on Thursday include Logan, Daly, BowmanCanada – Trudeau holds meeting with Mark Carney to join governmentChinese Communist Party news conference called for July 19 – Third Plenum briefingBank of England speaker Thursday on financial stabilityAustralian data: Q2 business survey shows conditions eased and forward indicators softenedAustralian June unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.0%

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY dropped to 155.50, recovered Read More »

Australian jobs report due today – preview and implications for the RBA

The Australian Labour market report for June is due at 1130 Sydney time on Thursday, 18 July 2024: 0130 GMT2130 US Eastern time (Wednesday evening)This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case

Australian jobs report due today – preview and implications for the RBA Read More »

European Central Bank monetary policy decision due today – on hold widely expected

The European Central Bank cut rates from a record high in June, but this month they expected to hold. While September is being eyed for the next cut, guidance is likely to be non-committal and contain caveats. Due at 0815 US Eastern time, with Lagarde following a half hour later: Comments via a Reuters report

European Central Bank monetary policy decision due today – on hold widely expected Read More »

Canada – Trudeau holds meeting with Mark Carney to join government

The background to this is here: Canadian finance minister could walk the plank. Mark Carney could be tapped Canadian media, Globe and Mail (gated) are reporting that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has urged Mark Carney to join his Liberal government. Four unnamed sources were quoted, so it appears to be getting closer. This article was

Canada – Trudeau holds meeting with Mark Carney to join government Read More »

China’s Communist Party central committee adopts resolution on further deepening reforms

To adopt resolution on further deepening reform comprehensivelyMust consciously place reform in a more prominent positionReform tasks set out in this decision to be completed by 2029Will implement measures to prevent, defuse risks in key areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutionsWill raise the level of party’s leadership

China’s Communist Party central committee adopts resolution on further deepening reforms Read More »

NASDAQ tumbles and has worst day since Dec 2022. DJIA closes at a record high

The NASDAQ tumbled today and had its worst trading day since December 2022 when the index fell -3.23%. The decline today pushed the index down -512.42 points or -2.77% to 17996.92 . Meanwhile, the Dow industrial average rose 243.60 points or 0.59% to 41198.09. That was good enough for another record close for that index.

NASDAQ tumbles and has worst day since Dec 2022. DJIA closes at a record high Read More »

US politics – “Schumer forcefully made case it would be better for Biden … to bow out.”

During Schumer’s one-on-one meeting with Biden on Saturday, “Schumer forcefully made the case that it would be better for Biden, better for the Democratic party, and better for the country if he were to bow out.” How much longer does this charade go on? Biden is under pressure from all over to step aside. The

US politics – “Schumer forcefully made case it would be better for Biden … to bow out.” Read More »

Bank of England speaker Thursday on financial stability

0715 GMT / 0315 US Eastern time: Bank of England executive director of financial stability strategy Nat Benjaminspeaking on how margining practices, now under close scrutiny by regulators globally after volatility in markets in recent years, could impact financial stability This doesn’t look like it’ll have anything on the economy or monetary policy. This article

Bank of England speaker Thursday on financial stability Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1285 (vs. estimate at 7.2587)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1285 (vs. estimate at 7.2587) Read More »

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The UK data pushed back imminent rate cut hopes

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. This week, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should continue to support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The UK data pushed back imminent rate cut hopes Read More »

Goldman Sachs – Global hedge funds reducing exposure to US stocks for 5 days in a row

A note from Goldman Sachs, info via Reuters, citing GS ‘without providing figures’: value of stocks hedge funds ditched over the last five trading sessions was the biggest since November 2022 and is close to a five-year recordde-risking has been led by the information technology sector, followed by industrial, healthcare, consumer discretionary and communications services

Goldman Sachs – Global hedge funds reducing exposure to US stocks for 5 days in a row Read More »

Chinese Communist Party news conference called for July 19 – Third Plenum briefing

Chinese Communist Party Central Committee will condiuct the press conference: Scheduled for July 19 (I don’t have a time yet)it’s a briefing on the third plenum held this week We may get some info on moves to support the economy. Perhaps. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese Communist Party news conference called for July 19 – Third Plenum briefing Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Nasdaq suffers worst drop since 2022. USD/JPY pressured

Fed’s Waller:Time to cut rates is getting closer based on analysis of potential scenariosBeige Book: Economic activity maintained a slight to modest paceUS June housing starts 1.353M vs 1.300M expectedUS June industrial production +0.6% vs +0.3% expectedAtlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 comes in at 2.7% up from 2.5% priorEIA weekly crude oil inventories

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Nasdaq suffers worst drop since 2022. USD/JPY pressured Read More »

Beige Book: Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace

Overall Economic Activity Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of DistrictsSeven Districts reported some increase in activity, while five noted flat or declining activityPreviously two noted no change in activity Labor Markets Employment rose at a slight pace in most DistrictsMore mentions of flat or declining employmentSeveral Districts

Beige Book: Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2587 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2587 – Reuters estimate Read More »

UK May ILO unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.4% expected

Prior 4.4%Employment change 19k v s 18k expectedPrior -140kJune payrolls change 16kPrior -3k; revised to 54kMay average weekly earnings +5.7% vs +5.7% 3m/y expectedPrior +5.9%May average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +5.7% vs +5.7% 3m/y expectedPrior +6.0% The jobless rate held steady in the reported month with nominal earnings also easing slightly in the three months

UK May ILO unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.4% expected Read More »

Japan data – June exports +5.4% y/y (expected 6.4%) & imports +3.2% y/y (expected 9.3%)

Rising exports and rising imports but not by as much as was expected, and not as much as in May. Exports to: China +7.2% y/ythe EU -13.4% y/ythe US +11% y/y USD/JPY has been heavy on the session: USD/JPY under 155.50 now Its around 155.60 as I update This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Japan data – June exports +5.4% y/y (expected 6.4%) & imports +3.2% y/y (expected 9.3%) Read More »

Some USD/JPY option expiries to be aware of for 10am NY time today

There are some option expiries to be aware of for 10am NY tome today (Thursday, 18 July 2024): 155.50-60 US$527mn156.00 US$325 mn Those amounts are almost ‘drop in the bucket’ size, but a heads up regardless. There are much larger volumes ones above, but they are so far away: 158.00 3.8bn USD159.00 1.2bn USD161.00 1.2bn

Some USD/JPY option expiries to be aware of for 10am NY time today Read More »

JP Morgan on oil – wary of diminished incentivization driving a spike to US $100 / barrel

Via a note from JPM on oil ICYMI: estimate the equilibrium price of WTI oil at around $70/bbleven at $60/bbl, WTI prices are too low to incentivize production, potentially leading to a spike to $100/bbl in following year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

JP Morgan on oil – wary of diminished incentivization driving a spike to US $100 / barrel Read More »

UBS expect the Federal Reserve to cut in September, say get into attractive yield now

Snippet from UBS’ global wealth management division on their outlook for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and investor implications. UBS expects the first rate cut from the FOMC in Septemberinvestors should “act now to put cash to work” as attractive yield from ‘quality fixed income’ is unlikely to persist much longer UBS have caught

UBS expect the Federal Reserve to cut in September, say get into attractive yield now Read More »

Bank of America’s global fund manager survey – most expect first Fed rate cut in September

Via the Bank of America’s global fund manager survey for July Most investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September56% of responding investors expect a first Fed rate cut at the September 17/18 meeting87% anticipate a first cut in H2 I popped up this from FedWatch (CME) yesterday, the probability

Bank of America’s global fund manager survey – most expect first Fed rate cut in September Read More »

ING: EUR/USD more likely to hit 1.08 than 1.10 after ECB meeting

Synopsis: ING believes that EUR/USD is more likely to fall to 1.08 rather than rise to 1.10 after this week’s ECB meeting. The current balance between USD-positive US political developments and USD-negative Fed rate repricing is keeping EUR/USD near 1.09, with minimal contribution from the euro leg. Key Points: Current Trading: EUR/USD remains close to

ING: EUR/USD more likely to hit 1.08 than 1.10 after ECB meeting Read More »

ICYMI – Fed’s Beige Book eyes growth slowing, consumers tightening belts

From the ForexLive glossary: The Beige Book is a report published by the Federal Reserve (Fed) eight times a year, that provides an overview of economic conditions in each of the Fed’s twelve districts. The report is compiled using information from the Fed’s business contacts, economists, and other experts, and covers a wide range of

ICYMI – Fed’s Beige Book eyes growth slowing, consumers tightening belts Read More »

Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, 18 July 2024 – Australian jobs report

Australia’s employment report is expected to show a continued rise in employment and a steady unemployment rate. I post a preview separately on this. You’ll also note the RBA Bulletin is due. This is going to be a monetary policy decision, we’ll have to wait for the next meeting (due on August 5 and 6)

Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, 18 July 2024 – Australian jobs report Read More »

AUDUSD sellers push the price back toward key MA, retracement and swing area support

In the new trading day in Australia, the employment report will be released.That report will likely have an impact on the prices. Knowing the key technical levels is a way to map out the roadmap for the event. On the downside, the nextkey area comes between 0.6708 and 0.6713. Her level corresponds with the rising

AUDUSD sellers push the price back toward key MA, retracement and swing area support Read More »

Democratic representative Adam Schiff calls on Biden to step down

The tides have sure changed. Democratic representative Adam Schiff (California) has called for Pres. Biden to step down as the Democratic candidate for president of the United States. Schiff commented that there are growing concerns within the Democratic Party about President Biden’s ability to defeat former President Trump in the upcoming November election. These concerns

Democratic representative Adam Schiff calls on Biden to step down Read More »

NASDAQ index now down -500 points. Biggest percentage decline since December 2022

The NASDAQ index continues to get hit with the price now down 500 points or -2.72%. That is its largest decline since December 2022. Looking at the hourly chart below, the price gap lower and immediately moved below its 100-hour moving average (blue line currently at 18194). The next key target area comes between 17820

NASDAQ index now down -500 points. Biggest percentage decline since December 2022 Read More »

US treasury auctions off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.466%

High yield 4.466% (last month was a little lower at 4.452%)WI level at the time of the auction 4.467%Tail -0.1 basis points vs six-month average of -0.6 basis pointsBid to cover 2.68X vs six-month average of 2.63XDealers 8.47% vs six-month average of 12.1%Directs 14.32% vs six-month average of 18.2%Indirects 77.2% vs six-month average of 69.7%

US treasury auctions off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.466% Read More »

Weekly oil inventory data is due at the bottom of hour. Private data show -4.4 draw in oil

The weekly oil inventory data will be released at the bottom of the hour. The private data released late yesterday showed a surprise draw down to -4.44M barrels The expectations were for a small change of -0.033M in oil inventories. Gasoline is expected to show a drawdown of -1.600MDistilates are expected to show a draw

Weekly oil inventory data is due at the bottom of hour. Private data show -4.4 draw in oil Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jul. The shift into the Russell 2000 and Dow continues

Dow and S&P close at recordsI know it is just the Dow 30, but it is on pace for best % move since June 2023Crude oil futures settles at $80.76Fed’s Kugler: Will be appropriate to ease later this year if conditions evolve favorablyThere hasn’t been a better week to own the Russell 2000 in 24

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jul. The shift into the Russell 2000 and Dow continues Read More »

Fed’s Barkin: Remarkable how strong consumer spending has remained

On the point about the consumer, yesterday’s retail sales report was very strong but there was a huge seasonal adjustment that has the usual bears questioning the underlying strength. Other comments from Barkin: Expectation of a recession as needed to slow inflation has not played outFirms are reluctant to let people go, and some sectors

Fed’s Barkin: Remarkable how strong consumer spending has remained Read More »

Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 comes in at 2.7% up from 2.5% prior

Just a couple weeks ago, the Atlanta Fed GDP growth estimate was near 1.5%. In its most recent calculation just released, the expected growth rate rose to 2.7% from 2.5% last. Growth goes from below trend to above trend in a short period of time. IN their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real

Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 comes in at 2.7% up from 2.5% prior Read More »

ICYMI – IMF says the Bank of Japan is facing challenges ensuring price stability

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas spoke on Tuesday (US time). He had remarks on the Fed posted earlier: IMF expect only one Fed rate cut this year and the IMF published its latest growth forecasts on Tuesday: IMF leaves 2024 global growth forecast unchanged, bumps 2025 GDP Gourinchas also spoke on Japan,

ICYMI – IMF says the Bank of Japan is facing challenges ensuring price stability Read More »

Financial Times: Donald Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before the election

We had the news on this posted many hours ago: Trump wants to hold rates high until after the election, no cut until after the election (which is three and half months away); Trump was speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV when he gave, says the FT, the ‘warning’ to Powell not to cut.

Financial Times: Donald Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before the election Read More »

Fed’s Williams says rate cut could be warranted in the coming months

Latest data getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we’re looking forBut would like to see more data to gain further confidence inflation is moving sustainably to 2% goalLast week’s data reflects a broad decline in inflationThings are moving in the right directionEven if Fed begins to cut rates, policy will remain restrictive enough

Fed’s Williams says rate cut could be warranted in the coming months Read More »

NZDUSD respecting technical levels Where are those levels? Find out in this video

The NZDUSD fell sharply yesterday and in the process tested the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low and also a trendline support level on the 4-hour chart. The subsequent bounce off of the USD selling has in the price extend above the 100 day moving average at 0.60629, 200 day moving

NZDUSD respecting technical levels Where are those levels? Find out in this video Read More »

EIA weekly crude oil inventories -4.870M draw versus expectations of a draw of -0.033M

Crude oil draw of -4.870M vs expected draw of -0.033MGasoline inventories build of 3.328M vs expected draw of -1.600MDIstillates build of 3.454M vs expected draw of -0.833MCushing drawdown of -0.875M vs last week -0.702M drawRefining utilization -1.7% versus expected -0.1%. Previous +1.9% Crude oil is trading at $82.04 up $1.31 after the data. The private

EIA weekly crude oil inventories -4.870M draw versus expectations of a draw of -0.033M Read More »

USDCHF breaks lower below technical levels, increasing the bearish bias. What next?

Flight to safety flows into the Swiss franc and movement out of the US dollar has the USDCHF moving sharply lower in trading today. The pair also tumbled below a key technical target defined by the: 200 day moving average at 0.888438.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2023 low at 0.8883, and

USDCHF breaks lower below technical levels, increasing the bearish bias. What next? Read More »

Moe from Fed’s Waller: Exact timing of rate cut doesn’t matter a lot

More from Fed Gov. Waller: Exact timing of rate cut doesn’t matter a lot. Key to easing when conditions just defy itLabor market is in a sweet spot, firms have the workers they wantIt is important for the Fed to maintain current labor market conditions.We have done our job with the high rates, open question

Moe from Fed’s Waller: Exact timing of rate cut doesn’t matter a lot Read More »

Teranet-National Bank Canada June house price index 0.0% vs +0.2% m/m prior

Prior was +0.2%Prices up 3.6% y/y vs +5.7% prior led by AlbertaPrices in Toronto +0.8% y/yFull report There are some real creaks appearing in the Canadian housing market and that’s a big reason the Bank of Canada will likely ride to the rescue next week with a second consecutive rate cut. This article was written

Teranet-National Bank Canada June house price index 0.0% vs +0.2% m/m prior Read More »

Japan data – Reuters Tankan for July: Manufacturers Index +11 (prior +6)

Reuters Tankan survey for June 2024 Manufacturers sentiment index +11 in July vs +6 in June first gain in four monthsmanufacturers expect the index to fall back to plus 9 over the next three months Service-sector +27, down from June’s +31 Reuters report some comments from the survey: “Domestic price hikes have weakened consumption and

Japan data – Reuters Tankan for July: Manufacturers Index +11 (prior +6) Read More »

There are unconfirmed rumours that Chinese President Xi Jinping had a stroke

There are unconfirmed rumours on Chinese social media that Chinese leader Xi Jinping suffered a stroke during Third Plenum meetings. These rumors have gotten some traction so keep an eye on them. That said, these kinds of rumours always seem to perk up, including persistent rumours that Vlad Putin has died. These reports, evidently originated

There are unconfirmed rumours that Chinese President Xi Jinping had a stroke Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen jumps, dollar slumps; US stocks poised for an off day

Headlines: Japanese yen surge continues in European morning tradeJapan top currency diplomat Kanda says no choice but to respond to speculatorsUS futures fall further as tech shares feel skittishTraders trim BOE rate cut bets for August after inflation dataUK June CPI +2.0% vs +1.9% y/y expectedEurozone June final CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelimFed’s Williams

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen jumps, dollar slumps; US stocks poised for an off day Read More »

easyMarkets Concludes the Bernabéu Crossbar Championship with Grand Celebrations

easyMarkets is proud to announce the conclusion of the Bernabéu Crossbar Championship, an extraordinary event held in partnership with Real Madrid at the iconic Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. While the contestants were unable to hit the crossbar, the spirit of competition was celebrated, and each participant received $2,500, totaling $10,000 in prizes. Beyond the competition, the

easyMarkets Concludes the Bernabéu Crossbar Championship with Grand Celebrations Read More »

Red swathes across tech: Analyzing today’s volatile stock market

Overview of Today’s Market Today’s stock market presents a mixed but predominantly negative outlook, particularly in the technology sector which shows significant declines. As we dissect the segments of the market, notable trends emerge that could signal key movements for investors and traders. Sector Analysis Technology & Semiconductors: A sea of red dominates the semiconductor

Red swathes across tech: Analyzing today’s volatile stock market Read More »

More from Richmond Fed Pres Barkin: Fed will debate whether inflation is still “elevated”

Richmond Fed Pres Barkin adds to his comments from earlier saying: He is sure that the US central bank will debate at July policy meeting whether it is still appropriate to describe inflation as elevated Looking for low inflation to sustain and broaden, starting to see the broadening.No one 25 basis point interest rate cut

More from Richmond Fed Pres Barkin: Fed will debate whether inflation is still “elevated” Read More »

RBNZ’s own preferred inflation model 3.6% y/y (prior 4.2%) for Q2 2024

Earlier today we had the official CPI data from NZ: New Zealand Q2 CPI 0.4% q/q (expected 0.5%) & 3.3% y/y (expected 3.4%)ANZ forecast an RBNZ interest rate cut in November (previously forecasting February 2025)NZD/USD remains higher after the lower than expected NZ inflaiton data Now this from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand: You

RBNZ’s own preferred inflation model 3.6% y/y (prior 4.2%) for Q2 2024 Read More »

Feds Waller:Time to cut rates is getting closer based on analysis of potential scenarios

Time for cut in rates is getting closer based on analysis of potential scenariosOptimistic scenario is more good inflation and data, which could mean interest rate cut in not too distant future.Second and probably more likely scenario is uneven inflation data ahead that still shows progress, that would make a rate cut in near future

Feds Waller:Time to cut rates is getting closer based on analysis of potential scenarios Read More »

Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Barkin, Waller and Schmid

Info incoming from the Federal Reserve later on Wednesday 17 July 2024: 1300 GMT / 0900 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin gives informal remarks on the economy before the Greater Prince George’s Business Roundtable 1335 GMT / 0935 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on

Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Barkin, Waller and Schmid Read More »

European equities open lower as the struggle continues on the week

Eurostoxx -0.5%Germany DAX -0.4%France CAC 40 -0.3%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB -0.3% US futures are also being pressured after the better showing in Wall Street yesterday. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5%, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%, and Dow futures down 0.3% currently. It’s shaping up to be more of a retreat in risk

European equities open lower as the struggle continues on the week Read More »

Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw vs build expected

Via Oil Markets Editor @OPIS — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +1 mn barrelsDistillates -0.5 mn bblsGasoline -1.7 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The

Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw vs build expected Read More »

Kickstart the FX trading for July 17 with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD.

In the kickstart video, I look at the 3 major currencies – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, it based yesterday at the 50% midpoint of the move down from the December 2023 high (see video yesterday “EURUSD bounces off the 50% midpoint, giving the buyers the “go-ahead” to push higher“). That gave

Kickstart the FX trading for July 17 with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD. Read More »

Economic calendar in Asia Wednesday, 17 July 2024 – New Zealand inflation data for Q2 2024

A lower y/y inflation reading is expected from NZ. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will welcome this. The NZ economy is in dire straits. Plummetting PMIs the latest indications of this: New Zealand services PMI for June 2024: 40.2 (prior 43.0)New Zealand June Manufacturing PMI 41.1 (prior 47.2) There are some indications we are

Economic calendar in Asia Wednesday, 17 July 2024 – New Zealand inflation data for Q2 2024 Read More »

Japan top currency diplomat Kanda says no choice but to respond to speculators

He makes mention that “if speculators cause excessive moves in FX market, we have no choice but to respond appropriately”. They stepped into the market on Thursday and Friday last week, and that seems to have finally broken the resolve of dip buyers. USD/JPY is markedly lower again today, down by 1% to 156.75 currently.

Japan top currency diplomat Kanda says no choice but to respond to speculators Read More »

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Rotation continues to weigh on the market

Fundamental Overview The upward momentum in the S&P 500 has been kept at bay recently as the goldilocks data triggered a strong rotation into small caps stocks with the Russell 2000 having its best week in 24 years. It also looks like the rotation has been driven by hedge funds facing short squeezes on their

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Rotation continues to weigh on the market Read More »

USDCAD Technical Analysis – The Canadian CPI sealed the rate cut

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. Yesterday, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending might have been exaggerated. Overall, this should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk

USDCAD Technical Analysis – The Canadian CPI sealed the rate cut Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2630 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2630 – Reuters estimate Read More »

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The pair bounced from the key support

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. Yesterday, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk sentiment.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The pair bounced from the key support Read More »

Despite the US data on Tuesday a September cut remains priced in

US data released Tuesday was strong, ICYMI summary here: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jul. The shift into the Russell 2000 and Dow continues Bank of Montreal cite a less hawkish Powell: A Fed cut in September remains effectively fully priced in even with consumption and imported inflation surprising on the upside. The price

Despite the US data on Tuesday a September cut remains priced in Read More »

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: NZD/USD higher after inflation data

RBNZ’s own preferred inflation model 3.6% y/y (prior 4.2%) for Q2 2024Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Barkin, Waller and SchmidHeads up for RBA’s John Simon to speak on WednesdayAustralian June leading index – economy improving but to remain below trend into 2025Financial Times: Donald Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: NZD/USD higher after inflation data Read More »