FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar has been under some pressure since last week as the soft US inflation data led to a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations. There’s now just a 15% chance of a rate hike in July, but the probabilities for a September move remain above 50% (currently 61%). […]

I guess that is how quickly things can unravel in Westminster. From earlier: UK prime minister Burnham announces VAT cut from energy bills to bring down cost of living As mentioned in the announcement earlier, the policy cost of cutting VAT from energy bills would be around £850 million. And it was reported that it will

WTI crude oil futures settled at $82.48, up $0.70 or 0.85%, after another volatile day of trading driven by shifting geopolitical headlines. The session featured a wide trading range, with prices climbing to a high of $84.60 before plunging to an intraday low of $79.58. That sharp decline followed reports suggesting that a 10-day cease-fire

Earlier, Shanghai Securities News reported that China is said to have room to cut rates, including RRR, in Q3 as the government seeks to complement fiscal measures aimed at supporting the economy. — The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a

The Canadian dollar softened modestly on the news earlir, extending a period of currency weakness tied to the broader tariff standoff with Washington. Carney’s measured tone, emphasising continued willingness to negotiate rather than immediate retaliation, may limit further downside for now, though markets will be watching closely for any sign Ottawa moves to match the

A hotter than expected print raises the odds the RBNZ needs to extend its recently restarted tightening cycle beyond what markets currently price. With the cash rate only just lifted to 2.50% after three years on hold, today’s data strengthens the case for follow through hikes and is likely to support the New Zealand dollar

Full report here The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey showed that euro area banks continued to tighten lending standards in the second quarter, reflecting heightened concerns over the economic outlook, geopolitical tensions and energy-related risks. Banks reported a moderate tightening of credit standards for corporate loans (net 7%), as well as for housing loans (9%) and

The major U.S. stock indices have erased much of their earlier gains, with the S&P 500 now slipping into negative territory as late-session selling accelerates. Earlier in the day, optimism pushed all three major averages sharply higher, but that enthusiasm has faded as investors take profits and selling broadens. The S&P 500, which was up

Unchanged from Q1 takes some pressure out of the inflaiton readings today.  More detail: RBNZ’s sectoral factor model, its preferred underlying inflation measure. Earlier: New Zealand’s Q2 CPI rose 4.1% y/y and 1.5% q/q, both above forecasts and the RBNZ’s own 3.9% estimate. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Rising oil prices and Treasury yields are still two key factors that should continue to drive markets in the week ahead. And both are very much driven themselves by US-Iran developments at the moment. Tensions remain high as US president Trump claims that Iran will pay “many times over” for the killing of American soldiers.

The renewed political pressure comes just days after the FSC tripled the minimum deposit requirement for single stock leveraged ETFs, a move aimed at cooling speculative trading in a corner of the market that has drawn regulatory scrutiny for months. Continued lawmaker attention suggests further tightening cannot be ruled out if trading volumes or investor

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Previous close was 6.7690 PBOC says it injected 253 bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos in Open Market Operations today. Rate rmeains 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The scale and speed of the intervention, nearly $9 billion deployed in a single weekend, signals policymakers are treating the AI driven tech selloff as a stability risk worth countering directly rather than waiting it out. Monday’s rebound in the Shanghai Composite and a partial recovery in the ChiNext suggest the move is having some

The intensifying US Iran conflict keeps a geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in crude prices, with traders weighing the credibility of ceasefire signals against the reality of an expanding air campaign. Brent and WTI both touched fresh one month highs before paring gains on reports of a proposed cooling off period, only to firm again

US stocks reverse sharply as Middle East tensions erase early rally CBS News: Nearly 100 U.S. Troops injured in Iranian attacks. Most return to duty Axios: Trump is focusing on making Iran pay for violations of MOU and recent US deaths Crude oil future settle at $82.48 UK names John Healey Chancellor of the Exchequer

Q2 held the peak of the global oil price shock and as such the NZ data is expected to show elevated CPI. Given the renewed conflict its not going to be possible to shrug it off and look though it. I’ll get a preview of this data posted separately.  In brief, any further upside to

Crude is trading in a narrow band so far this session, holding close to Monday’s settle rather than extending the sharp gains seen over the past week and a half. The lack of follow through despite a steady drumbeat of escalation headlines, including fresh tanker attacks and Iranian claims of strikes on US assets in

CBS News is reporting that nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured in Iranian attacks on multiple military bases across the Middle East since July 7. According to U.S. officials, most of the injuries were minor concussions or traumatic brain injuries, and 96% of those affected have already returned to duty. Pentagon spokesman Sean

Currency strategists broadly agree the ECB’s tone this week matters more for the euro than the widely expected hold itself, with the degree of hawkishness on further hikes seen as the key swing factor against the dollar. A clear signal that the Bank remains willing to act beyond September is viewed as the main defence

Fresh comments from a U.S. official suggest that any potential ceasefire with Iran remains secondary to the Trump administration’s broader objective of holding Tehran accountable. According to the official, President Trump is focused on making Iran “pay” for alleged violations of the memorandum of understanding, its continued actions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the

Prior month 0.1% Leading economic index -0.2% versus -0.1% estimate Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board said: “In June, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined and partially reversed gains registered in May and April. While some components of the LEI were little changed, the largest positive contribution

US and Iran continue to trade strikes in the Middle East and that is continuing to cast a dark cloud on markets to start the new week. Iran is making their presence known in attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and that has now led to the US imposing their own blockade again. Meanwhile,

Back from the World Cup where he posed with the championship team Spain as they lifted the World Cup Trophy, Trump is on TruthSocial saying that: Iran will pay for killing American Soldies many times over.  Isreal’s Netanyhu “will not be arrested, in any way, shape or form while in the United States of America”.  

The good news at least is that there is some form of exchange in order to try and de-escalate, with Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Baghaei insisting that a “binary choice of negotiations or war is not useful”. He maintains that “diplomacy does not negate defense” and that “defense is not incompatible with diplomacy”. Adding that Iran has

John Healey has been announced as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer.  This is a surprise as Shabana Mahmood was considered the favourite to become Burnham’s chancellor. Who he is: Healey is one of Labour’s most experienced hands. He was PPS to the Chancellor (Gordon Brown) from 1999-2001 and a minister continuously from 2001-2010, serving

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Gold continues to consolidate near monthly lows as the ongoing US-Iran crisis is keeping a lid on precious metals due to renewed upside inflation risks. Overall, the risk/reward has flipped to the upside after the recent soft US inflation data and the dovish repricing, but traders will need a clear de-escalation to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar has been under pressure since last week as the soft US inflation data led to a repricing of Fed rate hike bets. There’s now just a 14% chance of a rate hike in July, but the probabilities for a September move remain above 50% (currently 62%). The US-Iran

The USD is mixed and little changed vs the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – while the AUD and NZD move higher on risk on flows. The video above takes a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective and outlines the bias, the risks, and he

The major US stock indices are pushing to the upside led by the NASDAQ index. Looking at the major indices, a snapshot currently shows: Dow industrial average up 165 points or 0.31% have 52315. S&P index of 54 points or 0.72% at 7511.20 NASDAQ index up 285 points or 1.12% at 25805. Chip and AI

Headlines: Oil prices ease a bit after Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson suggests diplomatic efforts are continuing despite the attacks Iran says that diplomatic efforts have been “active” in recent days, received proposals from several mediators Gold stays under pressure as the US-Iran crisis keeps inflation and rate hike risks elevated ECB’s Q2 SAFE survey shows

US rates are trading higher on the day and so is the US dollar. Looking at the yield curve: 2 year yield is at 4.216% up 4.5 basis points. 5 year yield is at 4.316%, up 4.3 basis points 10 year yield is at 4.581%, up 4.1 basis points 30 year yield is that 5.096%,

Goldman Sachs’ estimates point to central bank gold demand running well ahead of what official reserve figures capture, with China’s actual purchases potentially several times the reported numbers. The bank says this accelerating buying, concentrated heavily in China, should act as a price floor even as gold faces near term pressure from hawkish Federal Reserve

June producer prices -0.3% vs -0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.3% German producer prices eased in June as a result of a notable drop in energy prices for the most part. Excluding energy, producer prices were actually up 0.2% compared to May. The breakdown shows that energy prices fell by 1.8% on the month, with prices for

The trade data itself is broadly neutral for the New Zealand dollar, with a modest monthly surplus doing little to offset the currency’s softer tone this morning. The larger driver is external: broad US dollar strength tied to the escalating US Iran conflict is weighing on the kiwi alongside other majors, as investors lean into

CPI MoM -04% versus -0.2% estimate. Prior month +1.0% CPI YoY 2.8% versus 2.9% estimate. Prior month 3.2% CPI BOC COre YoY 2.1% versus 2.2% last month CPI BoC Core MoM 0.1% versus 0.6% last month CPI MOM SA -0.1% vs. 05% last month Core CPI MoM SA 0.2% versus 0.2% last month CPI median +1.9% versus 2.1% estimate. Prior

A senior Iranian source reported that mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes to find ways to revive the US-Iran deal. Risk sentiment improved further on the headline and oil prices extended the losses. Earlier in the session, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Tehran would consider diplomacy based on its national interests, while

Negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests Mediators have shared messages with Tehran over recent days We have received proposals from mediators in war with US Sovereign rights over Strait of Hormuz are non-negotiable Iran’s interior minister to visit Pakistan today Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran would consider

Monday begins with Marine Day in Japan then later the focus will shift to the Canadian inflation data. On Tuesday, New Zealand will release its CPI data, while the U.K. will publish the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate. Wednesday’s highlight will be the U.K.’s inflation report then, on

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Oil prices rallied on Friday as traders hedged into the weekend risk amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Both sides continue to exchange strikes, but the catalyst for the latest surge was a Washington Post report, citing a US official, saying that the US is planning for a wider war and that the Pentagon

The sharp drop in Strait of Hormuz transits, to just four vessels on Sunday from eight the day before, is a tangible sign that the conflict is already disrupting flows through a chokepoint that normally handles about a fifth of global oil trade. With no visible LNG tankers passing since Thursday and only a handful

There are a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered in between the 1.1400 to 1.1450 levels. The expiries don’t tie much to any technical significance and so could just play a role in terms of limiting

Reports that the Pentagon is increasing the number of military aircraft in the region signal Washington is positioning for a longer and potentially wider campaign, reinforcing the geopolitical risk premium already embedded in oil and shipping markets. That build-up, paired with warnings that air defence and long range munitions stockpiles are running low, suggests the

Oil futures opened the new trading week up roughly 2%, with the move tracking closely to weekend developments in the US-Iran conflict rather than any shift in physical supply or demand. The catalyst is an unnamed US official’s acknowledgment that Washington is planning for a wider war, paired with reports the Pentagon is increasing the

Oil rebound seen pressuring Asian currencies, MUFG says. Indian rupee hit hard. Best-performing market of 2026 hit by chip volatility, ETF unwind. Citi hits Kospi more, downgrades Oil gapped higher to open the new week – recap ICYMI Beijing moves to steady markets after brutal tech stock slide – regulator calls stability meeting, state buyers

Japan is closed for a holiday today.  South Korea is open, returning from a long weekend after the holiday on Firday. The Kospi is expected to come under pressure again.  There is not a lot on the data calendar expected to move financial marekts areound too much upon release.  The People’s Bank of China is

The CSRC’s decision to convene market participants for a stability meeting, alongside roughly 110 billion yuan already deployed by two state-owned investment firms, signals Beijing is treating the recent selloff as a policy priority rather than a routine correction. Monday’s higher open across the Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Composite, CSI 300, ChiNext and STAR 50 suggests

Oil opened with a gap higher on Sunday evening US time, Monday morning in Asia, as a fresh night of escalation left little doubt the conflict is deepening rather than cooling. President Trump’s confirmation that Iran was struck very hard again, alongside a spread of reported explosions across Iranian cities including Bandar Mahshahr, Bandar Imam

The Kospi’s 4% drop on its first session back from Friday’s holiday confirms the market is still working through the unwind of one of 2026’s most crowded trades, and Citi’s move to tactical neutral after a year of overweight adds an institutional signal to what has largely been a retail-driven rout. With Korean stocks down

Monday’s early rally in both oil and the US dollar reflects a classic risk-off reaction to a conflict that is now spreading across multiple Gulf states rather than staying contained to Iraq and Jordan. Crude, already up around 2% on the wider war speculation from an unnamed US official, is drawing further support from the

A more freely convertible won would deepen offshore liquidity and give foreign investors and corporates cheaper, easier access to Korean assets and hedging tools, a modest positive for capital inflows over time. The shift toward TWAP based benchmark rates and round the clock electronic trading should reduce FX volatility transmission into the domestic economy and

The move underscores growing regulatory unease with prediction markets across Europe, with France joining Germany, Italy and Spain in restricting or blocking access to platforms like Polymarket. For an increasingly mainstream and fast-growing product, tighter enforcement in a major European market signals that regulators are prepared to escalate from transaction bans to full site blocks

Trump now says he is going to war against smoke from Canada: We are holding Canada responsible for the fact that they are not properly maintaining their Forests, and Brush therein, and the United States is being unnecessarily invaded by filthy, polluted, and unhealthy air, the quality of which is dangerous, and totally unacceptable! I

US June import prices +0.3% vs -0.7% expected US housing starts for June 1.427 million versus 1.310 million estimate. US June industrial production +0.1% vs +0.2% expected Why Kimi K3 is adding to the market worries US July prelim UMich consumer sentiment 54.4 vs 51.0 expected Meta weighs multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure deal with Anthropic Baker

Here is an interesting chart from Luke Kawa. It shows monthly returns of Goldman Sachs’ basket of retail favorite stocks. It’s down 12% this month through yesterday, which would make it the worst month since April 2022. Note that the bad and good months tend to cluster as momentum takes over. There were a couple

The escalation is showing no signs of stopping in the Middle East. There were reports that Iran targeted Kuwait yesterday and hit a desalization plant and now Iran’s semi-official Tasnim says that the Revolutionary Guard targeted a ship that ignored warning and tried to pass through Hormuz. Oil is having another big day with WTI

Tthe market’s view of artificial intelligence is that one of the big winners will be the model-makers,. after all those are the people who invented it. Markets — at least private markets — have assigned huge valuations to the companies building the models, predominantly OpenAI and Anthropic. The history of great invesntions suggests investors should be

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The dollar is managing to recoup losses from earlier this week, following the softer US CPI and PPI reports. The turn owes much to the continued focus on inflation worries, as well as a more hawkish Fed

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

Vessel traffic along the Strait of Hormuz has dropped back significantly in the past week or so. And we’ve only been seeing an average of around 10-15 vessels transit through the strait this week. Yesterday marked the first full day of the re-enforced US blockade and there were zero VLCCs or LNG tankers that transited

Crude oil has spent the week behaving like a pinball inside a technical machine, ricocheting between key support and resistance levels as buyers and sellers repeatedly score points at familiar chart levels. The action began on Monday when the price dipped to its rising 100-hour moving average near $77.55. Buyers leaned against that support, defining

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Previous close was 6.7711 PBOC injects 450.5bn via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

No change to government stance that specific monetary policy is left for the BOJ to decide upon Government will work to avoid misunderstanding in markets over fiscal, monetary policy stance Keeping a close eye on daily market moves, economic data Will strive to stably lower Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio Rate moves are determined by markets The

The Trump administration notified Israel it is sending dozens more refueling planes to the country ahead of a potential expansion of military operations against Iran, according to Axios. The report says Trump is considering a massive offensive in Iran. It says that among the options being considered are bombing Iranian infrastructure facilities like power plants, conducting

Bank week is behind us and the calendar now opens up into the good stuff: the companies that actually touch oil wells, rail cars, copper mines, housing lots, consumer wallets and some megacap tech. If you want to know whether the economy really absorbed a $93 average WTI quarter and a Strait of Hormuz closure

The modest size of Friday’s move, given the scale of the overnight escalation, suggests the market has already absorbed much of the risk from a broadening conflict that now touches Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait alongside Iran itself. With both benchmarks already up close to 12% on the week, further headline-driven spikes look increasingly likely to

Prior was 48.9 Conditions 54.9 vs 48.7 expected Prior was 48.4 Expectations 54.20 vs 51.7 expected Prior expectations 49.3 One-year inflation 4.2% vs 4.6% prior Five-year inflation 3.3% vs 3.3% prior  This indicator has been completely taken over by politics and has little value in predicting spending. This article was written by Adam Button

A couple things are roiling markets at the moment: 1) The release of Kimi K3, a Chinese open source model from Moonshot 2) Rumors that a hedge fund or two are in trouble The two are partly connected.  There is talk about Situational Awareness but it could be someone else as Jim Cramer writes: ”[By] this

The USDCHF has been on a rollercoaster ride this week, with sharp swings in both directions but little net progress. The pair surged early in Tuesday’s Asian-Pacific session, breaking above the June high at 0.81392 and extending to 0.8151 before momentum abruptly reversed. Sellers then drove the pair lower, finding initial support in the familiar

Prior month housing starts 1.177 million revised to 1.199 million. Prior month building permits 1.410 million. Housing starts for the month of June 1.427 million versus 1.310 million estimate Housing starts percentage change +19.0% versus -15.2% last month Building permits for the month of June 1.367 million versus 1.400 million estimate Building permits percentage change -3.0% versus

Headlines: Tech shares continue to stay under pressure in final stretch of the week How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? IRGC reaffirms that no oil and gas will pass through the Strait of Hormuz so long as US attacks continue Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged at July meeting

Prior import prices +1.9% (revised to +1.7%) Export prices -0.6% vs -0.4% expected Prior export prices +1.3% (prior revised to +1.2%) The import number swings the other way from CPI and PPI, perhaps highlighting that inflation pressures aren’t going away. At the same time, oil prices are near the highs of the day with brent

In Warsh’s testimony this weeek, he emphasized to the House Financial Services Committee that his annoucned review of the Fed’s $6.8 trillion balance sheet ​would also look at the ‘ample-reserves’ regime that requires it to maintain large holdings of bonds. This harkens back to Warsh’s first term as Fed Governor when he resigned in 2011 over

Generally speaking, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are considered risk-sensitive currency pairs. When investor sentiment deteriorates—such as during stock market selloffs—both currencies tend to come under pressure against the U.S. dollar. That risk-off theme is evident today. S&P 500 futures are down nearly 100 points, Dow futures are lower by around 600 points, and Nasdaq futures

Earlier: US airforce destroy a key bridge connecting the exporting city of Bandar Abbas to the rest of Iran, other infrasstructure targeted also Update from Centcom confirms: forces have redirected 3 commercial vessels trying to run the blockade disabled 1 that didn’t comply boarded 1 to ensure full compliance with the ongoing U.S. naval blockade

Prior was +0.1% Capacity utilization 76.1% vs 76.2% expected Manufacturing output 0.0% vs +0.1% expected Prior output 0.0% (revised to +0.1%) This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump to sell faster access to his Truth Social posts Google Gemini launch delayed as tech falls short of goals – report Fed’s Logan: Investment demand for AI is big, real and near-term inflationary Fed’s Schmid: Recent inflation encouraging but too early to say What United Airlines tells us about the shape of the US

The USD is mixed heading into the North American session, trading higher against the EUR, GBP, AUD, and NZD, but lower versus the JPY, CHF, and CAD. In the video above, I take a technical look at three of the major currency pairs against the greenback—the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. The USDJPY initially moved lower

The equity slide spans both Asian and US futures, with Japan’s Nikkei taking the sharpest hit at down 4.25% while Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures point to a more modest opening pullback, suggesting the pressure is broad-based rather than tied to a single catalyst. Separately, Japan’s move to formally leave specific monetary policy tools to

The muted price reaction on Globex reopening, barely lower rather than sharply higher, suggests the market had already priced in an escalation of this scale after days of strikes and blockade actions. What’s new here is the shift toward transport and telecoms infrastructure rather than purely military targets, which raises the stakes on Iran’s threatened

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is now down 6% on the day as the tech selloff from Wall Street yesterday bleeds over to Asia. And things look to be getting worse with US futures also deeply in the red today as S&P 500 futures fall by 0.8% and Nasdaq futures now down 1.5% today. The broader

Asian tech stocks slide as AI rally unwinds, oil set for biggest weekly gain since April Oil steady despite fresh wave of strikes across Gulf, Iraq and Iran Rupee nears record low as RBI intervenes but oil, risk aversion weigh China’s SAFE says FX market stable, resilient amid complex global backdrop Asian and US equities

S&P 500 futures are down 0.8% with Nasdaq futures down 1.5% on the day currently. It’s looking rough out there after the heavy selling yesterday, which translated into a big selloff in Asia as well earlier today. The Nikkei closed down by 4% and KOSPI down by over 6% and that is helping to set

For markets, the relevant angle is less the election dispute itself and more what it signals about the US-China relationship heading into a planned September meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, one markets have been counting on to consolidate the trade truce reached after last year’s costly tariff war. Indeed, AUD has already been marked

Trump is speaking now.  China …   This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Quick update, equites getting hited with middle east escalaion cited alongside poor lead from the US on Thursday.  Nikkei -3% ES -0.3% on Globex trade NQ -0.6% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   The S&P 500 has been mostly rangebound in the past couple of weeks as the US-Iran crisis brought back inflation and growth risks. This has also happened amid overcrowded stock market positioning which has led to deleveraging across the board. The peak inflation narrative got stronger following this week’s soft US inflation

The rupee’s slide despite improving portfolio flows, equities have flipped to inflows and debt has stayed positive, points to the pressure being driven more by oil-linked importer demand and broader risk aversion than by any capital flight narrative, which limits how much a flow-based recovery could help near term. The RBI’s near-daily intervention across spot

The muted oil reaction to yet another wave of strikes, this time hitting five more bridges in southern Iran alongside reported explosions in Erbil, Doha, Bahrain and Chabahar, reinforces the pattern seen through the week: the market appears to have largely priced in a broadening conflict and is now waiting for an actual disruption to

It’s an ugly tape today as the Nasdaq decline nears 2%. Chip stocks are getting beaten up and we’re awaiting Netflix earnings after hours. I imagine anxiety about the AI trade is mostly driving the market but that might not be all. Trump has scheduled a prime time speech today and the rumors say the

The miss against consensus, and the sharp deceleration from May’s two-decade high, suggests the AI-driven electronics export surge may be starting to normalize after several months of extraordinary growth, even though the underlying electronics strength to Taiwan and the US remains intact. The divergence between surging electronics shipments and declining non-electronics exports points to a

Food prices make up around 19% of New Zealand’s consumer price index. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar has been under pressure in the past few days following the surprisingly soft US inflation figures. The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations with traders scaling back significantly the probabilities for a rate hike in July which is now comfortably off the table.  The Fed

The GBPUSD surged higher yesterday, breaking through a series of important technical hurdles and shifting the near-term bias in favor of the buyers. The rally began with the pair finding support against the rising 200-hour moving average (currently at 1.3404) before powering through a cluster of key moving averages near 1.3400, including the 100-hour, 100-day,

What stands out in SAFE’s remarks is as much what wasn’t emphasized as what was: the regulator devoted little specific commentary to the yuan’s level or direction beyond a passing reference to stability, which could be read as a signal that Beijing currently has limited concern about where the currency is trading. That relatively muted

Crude gave back some of the week’s gains after Brent and WTI each touched their highest settlement levels in roughly a month on Wednesday. The pullback reflects profit-taking rather than any easing of risk, given both benchmarks were up over 1% intraday before fading. Traders are now pricing in the possibility that Hormuz and the

The pullback reflects a broader rotation out of semiconductor plays into sectors like banking following strong lender earnings, leaving Asia disproportionately exposed given its heavy weighting toward chips. South Korea’s Kospi has already lost roughly a third of its value since a June record despite the market being closed Friday, and Seoul’s move to temporarily

The price of crude oil settled at $78.95, down $0.65 (-0.82%). Trading was relatively contained, with a low of $78.58 and a high of $80.87, as the market continued to consolidate after Tuesday’s breakout to the topside. That breakout was technically significant, with the price pushing above both the 38.2% retracement of the decline from

Hoisington’s capitulation carries symbolic weight well beyond the size of its roughly $2 billion book, given the firm built its reputation calling the multi-decade decline in yields correctly. The shift from a 20-year-plus duration position to under a year signals the firm now sees limited near-term case for a yield decline, and its inflation range

Iran is continuing to strike its neighbours in the region: Reports that Iran has targeted King Fahd Causeway connecting Bahrain to Saudi Arabia – note, UNCONFIRMED Explosions heard in Doha Qatar government alert sent to cell phones — ps that ‘map’ above is not to scale, Iran is not that close.  This article was written

Logan’s remarks reinforce a hawkish read on the inflation outlook even as she found no current evidence of a wage-price spiral. Her framing of AI investment as a near-term inflationary force, alongside data-center electricity demand, adds a fresh and somewhat underappreciated input to the inflation debate beyond the usual energy and labour channels. Her comments

Gold’s slide tracks a familiar playbook traders keep reaching for: rising oil prices lifting inflation expectations, which in turn firms up bets on higher US rates and weighs on non-yielding bullion. Whether that chain of reasoning fully holds this time is worth questioning, given this week’s US inflation data actually came in soft, with consumer

The AI and chip related stocks continued their runs to the downside sending the Nasdaq down by -1.47%. The NASDAQ 100 fell by -1.61%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average fell -106.01 points or -0.20% to 52558.27 S&P index fell -38.63 points or -0.51% to 7533.76 Nasdaq index fell -387.28 points or -1.47% to 25881.95 Russell 2000 fell

The WSJ reports that Trump’s Truth Social is planning to sell access to a faster API in order to get Trump’s tweets sooner. There are large and obvious market-moving implications if they go down that route.  This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Just an update. Market movement is becomimg a bit jaded with the never ending attacks. Supportive for oil and the USD though.  Iran media report hits on at least two bridges: in the vicinity of Kahurestan and Bandar Khamir and a railway station Bandar Abbas area and Iranshahr airport. Other key infrastructure also targeted.  This all

There is a report that the latest Gemini release has been delayed and shares of Alphabet are quickly lower and down 2% on the day. The Bloomberg report says Google is months behind schedule on Gemini 3.5 Pro, its next flagship AI model, as it works to improve performance—particularly in coding. The delay is creating frustration

This chart is as ugly as it gets in terms of a topping formation. Micro shares have fallen $400 in the past three weeks and are now at the lowest since May 26. They’re down 32% after initially surging on the most-recent quarterly earnings report. In that report, the company forecast it would earn $31

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar weakened across the board in the past couple of days following the surprisingly soft US inflation figures. The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations with traders scaling back significantly the probabilities for a rate hike in July which is now comfortably off the table.  

Prior was +0.5% (revised to +0.6%) This is in-line with estimates but there is a slight upwards revision to the April reading, which should add a touch to GDP estimates. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Labor market seems roughly stable Recent inflation encouraging but too early to put too much weight on it Inflation is proving persistent across a broad selection of goods and services Inflation remains concerning Inflation shocks are not intrinsically transient, disagrees the Fed should look through certain types of inflation Schmid has been a hawk for

Very optimistic on long-term productivity improvements from AI Even with conservative estimates, electricity prices from data centers likely to be a source of modest inflationary pressure Increase in oil exports has come from inventories, not production Even if oil prices stay high, constraints like gas takeaway capacity may keep producers from hiking output With Warsh,

Prior week 215K initial jobless claims vs 217K estimate 4 week moving average of initial claims Continuing claims prior 1.814 million continuing claims versus an .815 million estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Micron (MU) has fallen to its lowest level since May 22, trading down to $847.46. That decline has pushed the stock into a key swing area between $818.67 and $860.68, a zone that could attract buyers looking for value after the sharp selloff. Since peaking at an all-time high the day after its better-than-expected earnings

United Airlines is not a perfect proxy for the US consumer, its passengers skew wealthier, more corporate and more internationally oriented than the population as a whole. However in terms of market, that kind of customer is the US customer as publicly-listed companies (aside from dollar stores) increasingly cater to the middle class and above.

Gold is under heavy pressure, falling about $70 to around $3,900 and extending its move back below the psychologically important $4,000 level. The latest decline has shifted the focus squarely onto the swing lows from late June and early July. Initial support was at $3,962, followed by the 2026 cycle low at $3,942.43. Those levels

U.S. retail sales came in close to expectations, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surprised sharply to the upside, likely reflecting improved business sentiment following the Middle East ceasefire and the decline in oil prices. Housing data, however, remained soft. Despite the mixed economic backdrop, Treasury yields pushed higher, with both the 2-year and 10-year

May trade balance (non-seasonally adjuted) -€7.8 billion vs -€1.6 billion Prior -€1.0 billion; revised to -€1.2 billion That is a marked increase in the Eurozone trade deficit as energy imports continue to weigh heavily on the overall trade situation, alongside a smaller surplus in the likes of chemicals and machineries categories. The overall trade situation is quite

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Oil prices continue to be skewed to the upside in the short-term as the renewed US-Iran crisis is keeping the geopolitical risk elevated, especially heading into the weekend. The traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is basically back to pre-ceasefire level after the US reimposed the naval blockade and Iran followed suit.

The broader U.S. stock indices remain lower on the day but have recovered from their session lows as buyers stepped in at key technical support levels in both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. For the Nasdaq 100, the decline found willing buyers between the converging 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, currently at 25,919.52 and

Bitcoin price outlook: BTC leans bullish, but $65,300-$65,400 is the breakout test Bitcoin remains in a bullish recovery above important support, but buyers still need to establish price above $65,300-$65,400 and then clear $65,700-$65,750. A sustained move below $64,300 would weaken the recovery, while acceptance below $63,750 would shift the outlook considerably closer to bearish.

Nasdaq futures analysis today: Recovery improves, but 29,795 is the real test Nasdaq futures are recovering from Tuesday’s sharp selloff, but buyers have not yet completed a convincing bullish repair. The September 2026 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures contract was trading near 29,766 at the cutoff for this analysis. A sustained move above 29,795 would strengthen the

Senior BOJ official: Delay in adjusting rates could lead to economic downturn in future US slaps a 25% tariff on some Brazil goods, exempts beef and coffee Asian chip stocks slammed as Nikkei, Kospi both slide sharply Japan finance minister repeats FX warning as yen hovers around 162 South Korean regulator to unveil single-stock leveraged

Prior week 215K initial jobless claims vs 217K estimate 4 week moving average of initial claims Continuing claims prior 1.814 million continuing claims versus an .815 million estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Iran has no conflict with neighbouring countries Remains committed to cooperation and “brotherly relations” with Gulf nations Other countries from outside the region should engage with Iran on the basis of mutual respect If US attacks continue, Iran’s response would “go beyond the enemy’s expectations” and expand to new areas Iran’s army primary mission remains

Trump on FOX Business: Iran wants to meet. They want to make a deal. But plans for more military operations. US military strikes Iran (again) Crude oil futures settled at $79.60 up $0.26 or 0.33% Fed Beige Book: Growth Continues, Uncertainty Lingers Iran’s Qalibaf: We must always be ready to fight and stand to the

U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday as softer-than-expected inflation data reinforced expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Treasury yields moved lower following another benign inflation report, helping lift equities. The Nasdaq led the major indices higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 also posted solid gains. Under the surface,

Wall Street saw quite a bit of volatility yesterday but ultimately settled higher as US stocks once again kept faith in trading this week. The softer inflation setting from the US CPI and PPI reports helped somewhat, as tech shares managed to recoup losses from the Monday drop. But with inflation/price data now out of

Confirmation of a fresh, sustained US strike campaign, spanning two separate waves within a single day, reinforces the market’s existing risk premium on oil tied to Strait of Hormuz security. The targeting of coastal defence and surveillance sites suggests Washington is focused on degrading Iran’s capacity to threaten shipping through the strait specifically, which may

This all started all the way back in 2023 already, with the falling response rate to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) being the main issue. As such, the UK stats office eventually announced a move to transition to a Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) instead. That “in order to improve the quality of the labour market data

Absent war, inflation would be at 2% target now BoE ‘in a good place’ to monitor what’s happening Iran war shock is less likely to become embedded and lead to inflationary dynamics that we might need to lean against There’s little reason to raise interest rates given weak economic backdrop Breeden said that, absent the

 The Swiss National Bank’s meeting minutes from its June monetary policy decision reveal policymakers remain broadly comfortable with current monetary conditions despite a more uncertain backdrop given by the conflict in the Middle East. While inflation pressures have changed little overall, the central bank acknowledged that geopolitical tensions have increased short-term inflation risks and

Prior was +10.3 Details: New orders xx versus 27.3 last month Shipments xx versus 14.9 last month Unfilled orders xx versus 10.5 last month Delivery times xx versus 10.8 last month Inventories xx versus 23.0 last month Prices paid xx versus 53.2 last month Prices received xx versus 20.3 last month Number of employees xx

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1475 level. The expiries don’t tie much to any major technical significance but it does sit close to the 2 July high of 1.1472. As such, the expiries could

The survey underscores how yen weakness is now a bigger earnings concern for many Japanese firms than the BOJ’s tightening path itself, with more than half viewing the currency’s slide as a net negative despite the usual boost it gives exporters. That’s a notable shift given the yen’s historical role as a tailwind for Japan

Prior was 261.4K (revised to 253.1K Housing activity propelled the Canadian economy for years but those days are long gone. Housing is a stubborn drag on the economy and it’s going to take awhile to turn it around. There are pockets of strength but Ontario is a problem and it’s not clear that we’re at

The USD is mixed and little changed vs the major currency pairs. Looking at the major currency pairs, with the exception of the USDCHF (+0.19%) and the GBPUSD (-0.30%), the other currency pairs are all within 0.09% of unchanged on  the day.  In the video above I take a look at the three major currency

Prior was +0.2% Details: Ex-autos vs -0.1% expected Prior ex autos +0.8% Ex autos and gas vs +0.5% prior Control group vs +0.5% expected Prior control +0.7% Nominal retail sales y/y +% vs +6.9% prior Retail sales are one of the most watched gauges of household demand because consumer spending makes up a large share

New tariffs in effect from July 22/  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The request from Saudi Arabia and the UAE signals growing urgency among Gulf producers to build durable alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, following the disruption caused by the Iran conflict. Japanese involvement, if it materializes, would add a major Asian buyer’s financial and strategic weight behind pipeline expansion projects already under way in the

Katayama’s comments largely repeat the standard verbal warning Tokyo has issued repeatedly as the yen has languished near multi-decade lows, and are unlikely to shift the currency’s trajectory on their own given the lack of any new specifics on timing or thresholds. With the yen hovering around 162 per dollar, well beyond levels that previously

Unanimity across forecasters suggests the hike itself is fully priced, meaning the real market focus will be on the tone of the governor’s guidance, particularly any signal on the pace and timing of further tightening. With the won under depreciation pressure and inflation above target, analysts see room for the central bank to reinforce a

UK May monthly GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.1% The more detailed breakdown for the month: Services output +0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.2%; revised to -0.1% Industrial output -0.5% vs -0.1% m/m expected Prior 0.0%; revised to +0.2% Manufacturing output +0.1% vs -0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.4%; revised to +0.5% Construction

New tariffs in effect from July 22/  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The synchronized selloff across Tokyo and Seoul underscores how tightly linked regional chip stocks have become, with analysts pointing to supply-demand dynamics, including elevated margin buying and leveraged ETF flows, as much as underlying fundamentals. Attention now shifts to TSMC’s earnings later in the day, seen as a key read on whether AI-driven demand can

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   In the past couple of days, we got surprisingly soft US CPI and PPI data that should translate into a 0.2% monthly increase in the Core PCE. This led to a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, with Fed rate hike probabilities for July falling to just 10%. Gold spiked to the

Iran released an American citizen who was detained in the country in 2024. A positive message from Trump: We aren;t getting many positive messages from trump on Iran, this could be significan and may give risk a boost and oil and the USD a lid. Let’s see.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

June final CPI +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y prelim Prior +3.2% June final HICP +3.0% vs +3.1% y/y prelim Prior +3.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. The headline reading is unchanged from the initial estimate, with just a marginal revision lower to the EU-harmonised reading. Core annual inflation is seen dropping slightly as

The hike matches what was unanimously expected across the 10 institutional forecasts covered ahead of the decision, meaning market focus will center on the accompanying guidance rather than the move itself. The central bank’s upgraded growth outlook and above-target inflation warning point to a data-dependent but still-alert stance on further tightening, with household debt, Seoul

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

After a bit of a breather early yesterday, the US PPI numbers for June also came in much softer than anticipated. So, that pretty much extended the relief for markets amid inflation fears creeping back in as the US-Iran conflict reignites again. That being said, there is a common theme to note between the two

 Senior BOJ official: When upside inflation risk high as is the case now, delay in adjusting degree of stimulus could materialise such risk, lead to economic downturn in future Appropriate monetary policy would achieve stable inflation, put economy in sustainable growth path This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The announcement lands amid yet another sharp sell-off, with sidecars triggered on both the Kospi and Kosdaq on Thursday as the chip-heavy market extended losses tied to overnight weakness in US semiconductor stocks and lingering Middle East risk. Single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have repeatedly been named by regulators and

Still to come is widely (unanimopusly!) expected Bank of Korea rate hike: https://investinglive.com/central-banks/unanimous-forecasts-point-to-bank-of-korea-rate-hike-today-as-won-weakness-bites This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Unanimously expected: https://investinglive.com/central-banks/unanimous-forecasts-point-to-bank-of-korea-rate-hike-today-as-won-weakness-bites Governor Shin Hyun Song will hold a press conference at 0210 GMT/2210 US Eastern time.  Earlier: https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/japan-s-nikkei-down-3-and-south-korea-s-kospi-down-6 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The reported strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain mark a widening of the conflict beyond direct US-Iran exchanges, raising the risk premium on oil given both countries’ proximity to key Gulf shipping and production infrastructure. Any disruption to Kuwaiti or Bahraini facilities, even if contained, is likely to reinforce the market’s existing nervousness over the Strait

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. The previous close was 6.7697 Injects 626bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Consumer Inflation Expectations survey is conducted by the Melbourne Institute, whose consumer inflationary expectations measures are designed to represent the average householder’s expected rate of consumer price changes over the coming 12 months. Its officially known as the Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary and Wage Expectations, run out of the University of Melbourne,

It’s a sparse calendar today, Musalem the highlight. He has taken a hawkish stance heading into mid-2026. In late May, he warned a rate hike may be necessary if inflation does not ease in the next six months, adding that “if we don’t see disinflation in the next one to two quarters, that would concern

The research does not change Fed policy directly, but it lands as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has flagged inflation measurement as a priority, having set up task forces on data and inflation frameworks. If adopted or discussed by policymakers, a measure like this could shift how officials interpret near-term inflation data, particularly at a

Prices found modest support from a shallower-than-expected crude draw, which traders read as a sign supply is stabilizing rather than tightening sharply. That offset the latest escalation between Washington and Tehran, with markets largely shrugging off the headline risk after a similar pattern in recent weeks. Analysts flagged Goldman Sachs’ view that Gulf exports have

Economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in 11 of the 12 Federal Reserve districts during late May and June. One district reported no change in economic activity. Contacts generally expect the economy to continue expanding in the coming months. Several districts highlighted elevated uncertainty tied to fuel costs. Employment rose on balance

Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Qalibaf is on the newswires and says: We have never welcomed war, but we must always be ready to fight and stand to the end to safeguard our national security and interests. We must also use the tools of diplomacy and negotiation to advance and secure our national interests. We are in

The EURUSD has extended its rally, climbing to a new session high of 1.1456 as the U.S. dollar remains under pressure following another round of softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. This week’s CPI and today’s PPI reports have reinforced the view that inflation pressures continue to ease, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve may have greater

Fed reserve Gov. Lisa Cook is speaking and says: It is prudent to wait a bit longer for inflation to slow, but is prepared to act if it does not occur soon. Since last summer there has been a notable shift in risks toward higher inflation and away from the labor market, although the overall balance of

Crude oil is settling the session at $79.34, up $1.20 on the day, with prices continuing to edge higher in after-hours trading near $79.68. The day’s range was wide, with a high of $81.27 and a low of $77.84, highlighting the volatility driven by developments surrounding U.S. policy on the Strait of Hormuz. During the

Financial markets move faster than ever. Prices shift in seconds, news travels instantly, and investors are expected to make decisions in an environment that rarely slows down. Yet amid that speed, one quality remains invaluable: perspective. For AFC-LIVE, that perspective has been built over 50 years in the financial industry. As the company expands its

Prior was +4.2% sales rose in 14 of the 21 subsectors Transportation equipment +4.1% Sales of motor vehicles increased 11.8% m/m vs -4.6% prior Chemical +4.6% Electrical equipment, appliance and component subsector posted the largest decline at -5.8% Wholesales trade 0.0% vs -0.7% expected Prior wholesale trade was +0.6% Total manufacturing sales reached a record high, rising 1.3% to $78.1 billion in May

The above video kickstarts the North American session with a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.  All three are within 0.13% of unchanged in confined trading as the market awaits the next shove.  Perhaps it is as the market traders await the England vs Argentina footie match

The major US stock indices are now into negative territory after giving up the earlier gains on the better-than-expected PPI data. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): 52,453.24, -60.00 points (-0.11%) S&P 500 (SPX): 7,533.11, -10.49 points (-0.14%) Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): 26,091.62, -15.39 points (-0.06%) Russell 2000 (RUT): 2,964.0346, -0.7292

Via twitter:  Expectations I had seen: headline crude oil  -2.7mn barrels distillates +1mn bbls gasolina +0.6mn bbls This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level once again. With the dollar extending a little lower after the softer US CPI report yesterday, the expiries above may not factor too much into play. But

Full report here ECB’s Stournaras said renewed hostilities in the Middle East have reignited uncertainty over the inflation and growth outlook after the swift easing in energy prices following the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding. He noted that renewed disruptions to energy flows and higher oil prices are weighing on economic activity and reviving inflationary pressures,

Prior was 5.7 (the estimate was 14.0) New orders 22.2 vs. +3.5 prior Shipments 24.4 vs. +8.6 prior Prices paid 52.3 vs. +61.0 prior Prices received 27.6 vs +31.4 prior Employment 11.4 vs +9.6 prior Supply availability -10.0 vs -13.9 prior Delivery time 13.0 versus 11.9 prior. Inventories 4.0 versus 0.0 prior. Average employee workweek

Headlines: Cooler US inflation gives markets a bit of a breather USD/JPY shrugs off the surprisingly soft US CPI as Middle East crisis keeps inflation risks alive ECB policymaker Nagel says interest rates are at appropriate level after June’s decision ECB policymaker Panetta says ECB’s goal is to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored, limiting second-round

The FT is reporting that Shabana Mahmood is set to become Britain’s next Chancellor of Exchequer Shabana Mahmood is viewed as a fiscally disciplined, centrist Labour politician who is expected to prioritize responsible public finances, stable economic policy, and maintaining investor confidence. Compared with Labour’s left wing, she is generally seen as more business-friendly and pragmatic, favoring

Monetary policy will maintain its vigilant stance From a geopolitical perspective, the past few weeks have been characterized by hopes and disappointments From a monetary policy perspective, it remains adivsable to react with caution, but to act decisively if necessary Interest rates are at appropriate level after June’s decision ECB policymaker Nagel said the ECB should

White House reportedly weighing an additional extension of Jones Act waivers as renewed Iran conflict stirs price fears The Jones Act is a U.S. shipping law formally known as the Merchant Marine Act of 1920. One of its main provisions requires that any cargo transported between two U.S. ports must be carried on ships that

Economic growth data for China in the April – June quarter. China Q2 GDP 0.9% q/q expected 0.9%, prior 1.3% 4.3% y/y, well down from the Q1 growth rate of 5% expected 4.5%, prior 5.0% H1 2026 national urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2% I’ll have more to come on this separately.  This article was

S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% and Nasdaq futures up 0.4% on the day currently. This follows up from the slight gains yesterday, which helps to bite back at a chunk of the drop from Monday. Now, the turn in the market mood owes much to the softer US inflation data for June. But as

Prior was 2.25% Highlights of the statement: Says Canada’s economy is showing signs of improvement Growth is picking up and inflation is projected to ease gradually from its recent spike. Says Governing Council will continue to assess the strength of the Canadian economy and the outlook for inflation, and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as

The miss against forecasts underscores how the Iran-linked oil shock is now compounding, rather than merely coinciding with, China’s long-running property downturn, adding a fresh external drag to an already unbalanced growth mix. The divergence between resilient industrial output and exports on one side and weak investment on the other suggests policymakers face a narrower

The softer US inflation print is doing double duty across the region, lifting broad risk appetite by lowering July Fed hike expectations while also amplifying an already strong AI chip rally that is disproportionately benefiting Korean and Japanese semiconductor names. Korea’s move was forceful enough to trigger a trading halt, underscoring how concentrated the AI-linked

Prior was 6.5% PPI final demand m/m -0.3% vs 0.1% expected (prior was +1.1%) Core readings: PPI ex food and energy y/y 4.7% vs 5.2% expected Ex food and energy m/m +0.2% vs +0.4% expected Ex food energy, and trade +5.1% vs 5.1% prior This isn’t a huge surprise given the downside miss in CPI

The plan signals a structural shift in Beijing’s growth model, with policymakers explicitly targeting a slower pace of retail sales growth than the previous five-year period while pushing for a larger consumption share of GDP. For markets, the emphasis on services spending, including elderly care, childcare, tourism and culture, points to where policy support and

The economic activity date from China, for June, along with Q2 growth data, is the focus for the calendar in Asia today. June is expected to show more on the divergence in China, with subdued domestic activity reflected in falling retail sales y/y while the export engine holds industrial output at a solid +4.6% y/y.

The USDCAD came under heavy selling pressure yesterday after U.S. CPI data came in much weaker than expected, triggering a decisive technical breakdown. The pair fell below the key support zone between 1.4125 and 1.4143, moved well beneath the 100-hour moving average, and broke an upward-sloping trendline that had guided the rally since May 1.

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Canada’s economy is showing signs of improvement. Growth is picking up and inflation is projected to ease gradually from its recent spike. There are still important risks and uncertainties

To continue to implement appropriately loose monetary policy Will step up counter cyclical adjustments, help to expand domestic demand conditions 7-day reverse repo rate remaisn the main policy rate, which provides pricing anchor for markets Overnight reverse repo operations will help improve liquidity management Studying plans to gradually increase frequency of overnight reverse repo operations

With inflation running high, it is imperative that we restore it to 2% goal on a sustained basis Current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to do that Inflation is unquestionably too high at about 4% Encouraging reasons to expect that inflation has peaked and should edge down in coming quarters Expect overall inflation

June final CPI +3.2% vs +3.2% y/y prelim Prior +3.2% June final HICP +3.6% vs +3.6% y/y prelim Prior +3.6% Core CPI +2.9% y/y Prior +3.0% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The modest easing in both the year-on-year and month-on-month declines offers a marginal sign that the pace of deterioration is slowing rather than accelerating, but the broader trend remains firmly negative and consistent with a market still searching for a bottom. Given the scale of household wealth tied up in property, continued price falls keep

It was an upbeat day in the stock market as equities got a lift from three main events: US CPI lower than expected at 3.5% y/y vs 3.8% expected Earnings from financials were strong Trump TACO’d on 20% tolls in Hormuz Internally, the chip battle continued and not all the financials made gains. Some of

Trump’s remarks point to no imminent de-escalation, reinforcing the geopolitical risk premium already built into crude and diesel prices following recent Hormuz-related supply concerns. His disclosure that Iranian energy infrastructure remains untouched for now suggests Washington still holds a significant escalation option in reserve, a factor likely to keep traders pricing in tail risk to

The scale of the operation, described by Centcom as hitting dozens of targets over a seven-hour window, signals a significant escalation in tempo rather than a limited retaliatory strike, reinforcing the risk premium already built into oil prices this week. Coinciding with the same-day resumption of the naval blockade, the combined military and economic pressure

Ready to take monetary policy action at any time if needed ECB will do what is needed to bring inflation to 2% in the medium-term No second round effects seen currently The remarks above aren’t anything new. The ECB continues to play for optionality but they have made it clear that they won’t be taking

Economic ‘activity’ data from China, June 2026 Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) (Jun) -5.7% a big miss, but the other data is strong expected -4.9%, prior -4.1% Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun) +5.3% expected 4.6%, prior 4.5% Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) +1.0% expected -0.1%, prior -0.6% Urban surveyed unemployment rate 5.0%, down 0.1% m/m  I’ll

I don’t think the draft economic blueprint upset markets Foreign exhcnage rates are determined by markets We aim for a strong economy and sustainable fiscal policies Interest rates and foreign exchange are determined by various factors including US interest rates and economic indicators Japan’s long-term government bond yields have surged to multi-decade highs in recent

These are entirely unrelated entities. Lucid Trading (Lucid Trader Funding) is a proprietary trading (prop) firm that evaluates retail traders to fund them. Lucid Motors (Lucid Group) is an electric vehicle manufacturer. Some worrisome chatter about: Lucid is trying to deny bankruptcy rumors. Shares under heavy pressure This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Nikkei rises but gains checked ahead of ASML earnings, Kospi surges China Q2 GDP growth cools to 4.3%, weakest pace in three and a half years US forces hit dozens of Iranian military sites near Strait of Hormuz China June Retail sales +1.0% y/y (expected -0.1%) and Industrial output +5.3% y/y (expected 4.6%) China Q2

Crude oil settles at $79.34, up $1.20. Bias remains to the upside from a technical perspective Fitch affirms Canada at AA+ with a stable outlook Trump told Netanyahu that he should remove his soldiers from Lebanon Fed’s Goolsbee: June CPI inflation data was surprisingly benign Trump: We will be doing a lot of deals with

The US inflation pulse stole the spotlight yesterday, as the June CPI report came in softer than anticipated. In case you missed it: US June CPI 3.5% vs 3.8% expected Despite what the headlines might suggest, the drop in June owes much to a marked fall in gasoline prices. Month-on-month CPI inflation fell by 0.4%, which

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.prior close 6.7730 Injects 426.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The rally reflected a strong risk-on tone that carried over from Wall Street, with softer US inflation data driving broad gains in US technology shares overnight that Seoul then amplified. The scale of the move, large enough to trigger sidecar halts on both the Kospi 200 and Kosdaq 150 futures, pointed to unusually concentrated buying

The renewed exchange of strikes pushed Brent and WTI to fresh multi-week highs for a second straight session, reinforcing the geopolitical risk premium already embedded in crude following last week’s flare-up. Trump’s comment that energy targets would be hit eventually, even while being held back for now, kept alive the tail risk of direct action

Things aren’t looking good for Lucid Motors. Shares rose as high as $648.60 in the post-covid electric car mania but are now trading at just $4.54 and are down 17% today. They fell 55% at the lows today on a report from electric-vehicles.com that said it was working with restructuring adviser AlixPartners, who had been

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

A modest downward revision to the BOJ’s inflation forecast would on its own read dovish, but the accompanying signal that hiking conditions remain intact should keep JGB yields and yen-hawkish positioning supported. The real swing factor for markets is whether summer food and beverage price increases prove durable, since that is what Daiwa flags as

China House prices June 2026 … I added more on this here:  New home prices in China fell for a fourth straight year in June  -3.3% y/y prior -3.5% -0.1% m/m prior -0.2% Still to come: The economic activity date from China, for June, along with Q2 growth data This article was written by

The renewed US naval blockade around Iran has revived fears that a meaningful share of global crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted, keeping a geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in benchmark prices. Traders are also digesting the record widening in diesel refining margins, which points to a tightening middle distillate market

Canada is out of the World Cup but it keeps its near-top rating. The full Fitch announcement. Fitch says Canada’s economy remains plagued by ongoing trade uncertainty and longstanding structural challenges Fitch affirmed Canada’s long-term rating at AA+ with a stable outlook on Tuesday, and the report is a good snapshot of the Canadian macro

The GBPUSD initially moved higher after the softer-than-expected U.S. CPI report, climbing to 1.3442 and approaching a key swing area between 1.3446 and 1.3465. However, buyers could not sustain the momentum. The pair reversed sharply lower and has since fallen to a new post-CPI low, erasing the inflation-inspired rally. From a technical perspective, the reversal

Pres. Trump is speaking to reporters from the Oval Office with the Iraqi prime minister We are there for Iraq if they need protection. We were called by different countries that said they’d like to invest in the U.S. instead of charging a fee for Strait of Hormuz passage. Gulf states are going to invest

There’s only one game in town for markets today. And no, it isn’t France versus Spain sadly. The trading day ahead will center around the US CPI report for June, with inflation data coming back into focus amid the turn of events in the Middle East this past week. The US-Iran conflict is back on

TIOmarkets has launched its newmobile trading & investing app, a major digital release designed to bring the trading journey, client area and account management experience into one streamlined mobile destination. The app intends to address one of the most common pain points in online trading: the fragmented user journey. Traders often move between platforms, portals,

The prepared text from Fed Chair Warsh ahead of his testimony in the House of Representatives: If we get policy right—and we will—the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past. Underlying inflation over longer time horizons is determined largely by monetary policy. The Fed has no tolerance for

The Strait of Hormuz is once again sealed: first, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it was temporarily suspending traffic through the strait, and then Trump declared restoration of the naval blockade against Iran, since Tehran had violated previous agreements with Washington. As oil has moved back above $80 per barrel and investors have

As Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony continues on Capitol Hill – and pos better-than-expected CPI data -the U.S. stocks are extending their gains. The NASDAQ is up about 204 points or 0.80%, while the S&P is currently up 0.37%. The stronger risk tone is also lifting risk-sensitive currencies, with the AUDUSD among the session’s leaders. The

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance once again but the relative size could act as a bit of a magnet for price action. That especially as trading sentiment will

Just now from Trump: Oil is flowing like never before, thanks to the awesome Power of the United States Military. A special salute to Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, and Commander of the United States Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper. Because of them, and all members

Crude oil prices are moving lower after President Trump backed away from his proposal to impose a 20% reimbursement fee on all cargo ships exiting the Strait of Hormuz. The idea, which caught markets by surprise yesterday and helped spark a sharp rally in oil prices, has now been shelved. Instead, the administration is shifting

The U.S. dollar is under pressure after June CPI came in cooler than expected, reinforcing the view that inflation continues to move in the right direction. Headline CPI fell 0.4% m/m, well below the -0.1% consensus, while core CPI was unchanged at 0.0%, versus expectations for a 0.2% increase. The softness was broad-based, with core

The U.S. dollar is starting the new trading day with broad-based gains, rising against every major currency. The biggest move is against the New Zealand dollar, with the NZDUSD down 0.89% to 0.5799. The Australian dollar is the next weakest performer, falling 0.35%, followed by the Canadian dollar (-0.30%), Swiss franc (-0.27%), British pound (-0.22%),

Prior 95.3 The index rose 2.1 points in June to 97.4, nearing its 52-year average of 98.0. Expectations for better business conditions and real sales expectations improved substantially and primarily drove the rise in the Index. The Uncertainty Index fell 2 points from May to 89, remaining well above its historical average of 68. As reported

Headlines will update live: We will deliver price stability We have the tools to deliver that The Fed won’t pass the buck We want economic growth to be more broad based I’ve demonstated a commitment to indepence in my first weeks at the Fed The purpose of changing communication is to get monetary policy right

Earlier from a speech delivered at an event hosted by BusinessNZ in Wellington, RBNZ Chief Economist, Paul Conway, Q&A now: There was consensus on MPC last week, there was no need to vote We are not talking about moving to a restrictive policy stance We will get inflation back to 2% over the medium term This

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

Prior was 4.2% CPI m/m -0.4% vs -0.1% exp Prior CPI was +0.5% Unrounded -0.349% Core readings: Core y/y 2.6% vs 2.8% expected Prior core was 2.9% Core m/m 0.0% vs +0.2% expected Prior m/m +0.2% Unrounded +0.011% Ahead of the report, Fed funfds futures were pricing in 9.2 bps of hikes at the July

RBC raised its Q2 Canadian GDP tracking estimate to 2.2% annualized from 1.7% previously. After two quarters of stagnation, the drivers are the usual suspects: resilient household spending (impressive given what gasoline prices did to buying power this spring), recovering business investment, and net trade set to add significantly. The annual 2026 number edges up

As a testimony from Kevin Warsh begins on Capitol Hill begins, a snapshot of the markets shows: Forex: EURUSD: 1.1452, +0.62% USDJPY 161.88, -0.33% GBPUSD 1.3411, +0.49% USDCHF 0.8066, , -0.96% USDCAD 1.4057, -0.69% AUDUSD 0.6981, +0.94% NZDUSD 0.5818, +1.22% in the US stock market: industrial average Dow industrial average +45 points or 0.09% at 52550.24 S&P index + 2.92 points or +0.04% at 7518.25

Australia Business Confidence June 2026: -5  prior -14 Business conditions: remains at 3 prior 3 I’ll have more to come on this separately  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

Is it time to buy the gold miners? US June NFIB small business optimism index 97.4 vs 95.7 expected What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? The bond market is one spot to keep an eye out for Long global semiconductors remains the most crowded trade on record as BofA notes ‘no

The scale of the beat, on both exports and imports, is the story here, since it suggests the AI investment cycle and tariff front-loading are doing more to support Chinese trade than the Reuters poll consensus had assumed just a day earlier. The import surge to a five year high is arguably the more significant

A near unanimous poll result leaves little room for surprise on the decision itself, so the real interest lies in the pace beyond Thursday, whether the BOK delivers a single further move to 3% this year or opens the door to back to back hikes if the won keeps weakening. The BOK’s move also confirms

GDX Gold Miners ETF Tests Critical Support as Descending Wedge Tightens GDX is testing the important $72-$74 support area after a steep correction and the closure of several price gaps from 2025. A descending wedge creates potential for a recovery, but buyers still need to reclaim $80-$81 and eventually break the falling trendline near $84-$86

Gold’s slide is the clearest sign yet that the Middle East conflict, despite being the classic trigger for safe haven demand, is currently working against the metal because of the inflation and rate path implications of the oil spike rather than through any flight to safety. With Treasury yields and the dollar both climbing alongside

The framing here matters more than any single line, since Conway is explicitly distancing the RBNZ from a restrictive stance while still flagging further hikes, a calibrated drift back to neutral rather than a tightening campaign. That nuance may cap how aggressively markets price future moves even as the inflation numbers themselves, a forecast peak

China June trade data smashes forecasts on AI demand surge NZD firms as Conway reinforces RBNZ hawkish tilt on inflation risk China’s export growth accelerated in June, surged 27% y/y vs. 18.2% expected Preview – Falling gas prices seen pulling US June CPI lower, but Fed unlikely to relax Gold falls to two week low

Crude built gains through the session and surged into the close as the conflict widened on multiple fronts at once, with the reinstated blockade compounding fears already stirred by direct attacks on Saudi territory. The scale of the single day move, the largest for both benchmarks in weeks, points to a market pricing in a

Conway’s comments push the policy conversation in a firmer direction than the QSBO release alone would suggest, tying the survey’s jump in cost pressures directly to the RBNZ’s own forecasting risk. The explicit reference to upside risk on the September quarter forecast, paired with a direct statement that further reduction in stimulus is likely required,

US navy details that it will enforce a full blockade on Iran US June federal budget deficit $120 billion vs $138 billion expected More from Fed Waller: Now is not the time to use forward guidance. Waller: If there is another hot reading on core inflation this week, the Fed will need to consider raising

After an epic climb down in June, is it time to go back the other way? WTI crude is now up 14% in July and looks poised once again to move back above $80 as US-Iran tensions flare up again. Just as it would seem there is a little bit of hope, US president Trump

The price of crude oil futures surged 9.42% to settle at $78.14, marking the largest one-day gain since April 29, when prices climbed 8.92%. In early trading today, prices have eased to around $77.51, but that still leaves crude higher by roughly $6.03, or 8.4%, from Friday’s close. The rally was fueled by escalating geopolitical

This is the most serious single incident in the conflict so far in terms of direct casualties, and the first confirmed use of Iranian cruise missiles against tanker traffic rather than proxy attacks or blockade posturing. Coming hours before the US blockade takes effect and in conjunction with a separate UKMTO warning of a projectile

June wholesale price index -0.7% m/m Prior -0.6% Wholesale prices in Germany continue to fall again in June, with the annual estimate also easing further to +4.9% – down from +5.9% in May. The year-on-year increase is still notable as it owes to the earlier build up in energy prices and prices for raw materials

It’s all falling apart in the effort to end the war and restart freedom of navigation in Hormuz. Instead, it looks like the US will try to bring Iran to submission via a total blockade of the country. At the same time, it will try to ensure that oil continues to flow by escorting convoys

The round trip in USD/JPY, from a sharp Friday rally back to levels seen before Katayama spoke, is a reminder that verbal intervention alone rarely holds without a concrete policy commitment behind it. The scale of the reversal also suggests the initial move was built more on speculative extrapolation than on confirmed detail, since GPIF’s

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

A beat on consensus is a modestly supportive headline, but the deceleration from Q1’s 6.3% to 5.7% is the more relevant detail for the coming policy decision, since it shows momentum easing even before any further escalation in the Middle East feeds through fully to costs. The MAS already tightened in April specifically to guard

The likely headline decline is almost entirely a gasoline story rather than a genuine broadening of disinflation, which is why the core reading matters more for markets than the top line print. A core rate still running near 2.9% and services inflation accelerating to 3.4% argues the Fed has little basis to relax even as

This lands as a deliberately hedged follow up to last week’s episode, reopening the door Katayama himself had appeared to close after reports emerged that no immediate change to GPIF’s allocation was planned. By tying any future shift explicitly to a sharp change in the investment environment and to GPIF’s existing rules, rather than a

The measures target one of the more tangible funding channels in the Sudan conflict, since gold smuggling has become a major revenue source for the warring parties as the country’s formal economy has collapsed. Closing the direct import route and restricting the chemicals used in extraction, along with efforts to block gold reaching the EU

China trade data for June 2026: Balance of Trade $125.8bn expected 121B, prior 105.43B Imports +36% y/y expected 24%, prior 27.4% Exports +27% y/y, fastest growth since 2021 expected 18.2%, prior 19.4% I’ll have more to come on this separately  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

The broader indices closed lower with the NASDAQ index leading the way to the downside. Chip stocks and AI led the way to the downside: Applovin -12.65% Micron, -4.40% Marvel technologies -7.75%. Intel -6.12% Broadcom, -3.98% AMD, -4.21% Texas Instruments -4.14% SanDisk -12.63% ARM holdings, -7.55% Nebius Group -4.16% Lam Research, -5.83% GE Vernova, -4.49%

The rebound in confidence looks less like an all clear and more like a snapshot taken during a brief window of calm, given the survey ran precisely through the period when fuel prices dipped on the temporary US-Iran shipping agreement, before tensions and prices resurged. What will carry more weight for the RBNZ is the

Coming straight after Westpac’s consumer confidence release, this is the second Australian sentiment survey in one session to show improvement that predates the latest escalation, reinforcing the sense that both readings already look somewhat out of date by the time they are published. The retail price decline, the first in seven years, is a genuinely

The headline bounce is worth treating cautiously given the timing, since the survey window closed on July 9, just before oil prices spiked again on the latest round of Middle East hostilities, meaning the improvement in sentiment is already somewhat stale by the time it is published. The far larger jump in the future family

The location matters as much as the incident itself, since Qalhat sits on the Gulf of Oman coast, precisely the kind of route regional players like the UAE are counting on as a safe alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. An attack there, hours before the US blockade formally takes effect, undercuts the assumption that

The NZD’s move looks like a fairly clean read on Conway’s remarks, a central bank confirming it has already hiked, explaining the inflation logic behind doing so again, and delivering that message in a controlled, credible way rather than sounding reactive. Markets tend to reward exactly this kind of careful hawkish framing, tightening without alarm,

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. prior close 6.7810 Injects 236.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

The retail data points to a UK consumer still spending, but decelerating from May’s pace even with two clear tailwinds in the heatwave and the World Cup, which suggests the underlying trend is softer than the headline numbers imply. The stabilisation in travel spending after April and May’s Iran war related falls is a modest

The move signals the Gulf’s shipping and energy infrastructure is now being rebuilt around the assumption that Hormuz closures will recur, not treated as a one off shock to ride out. A viable east coast alternative at Fujairah would, over time, reduce the leverage Iran holds over regional trade flows every time tensions flare, though

Confirmation of more fighting will keep oil markets underpinned This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

NZ business survey and China trade data due to test recovery narrative Tuesday’s Asia calendar carries two releases with genuine policy weight, even if neither lands with US market-moving force in isolation. The NZIER survey is being watched less for its headline average and more for the shape of the quarter, since the survey window

Reports earlier indicaetd the US was planning at least a few days of strikes.  The time in Tehran is 10:30 pm and this is around when strikes usually start. This article was written by flc97fe4880a4b454993821fe0b770a597 at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF pushed higher during the Asian-Pacific session but once again ran into resistance near last week’s high at 0.8107. The failure to break above that level with conviction invited sellers back into the market, shifting the focus to support. That support came from the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.80755. Buyers stepped in

Why Macroeconomics Moves Crypto: The Forces Behind Bitcoin’s Biggest Market Cycles Interest rates, global liquidity, inflation and the US dollar can influence Bitcoin and the wider crypto market more than any single headline or social media post. In this educational video, Cezar Vana Silaghi explains how these forces shape investor risk appetite and create the

Headlines: US-Iran tensions continue to dominate proceedings in the new week Iran reaffirms it won’t keep its end of the deal so long as the US doesn’t as well Iran foreign ministry says mediators are still continuing efforts to remedy the situation Oil prices consolidate around recent highs amid renewed US-Iran attacks as traffic in

We just had the one data point on the agenda today: NZ services sector returns to growth as PSI hits 50.6 in June NZ’s BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose to 50.6 in June from 48.0 in May, moving back into expansion for the first time since January, though BusinessNZ called the recovery tentative. This

The Fed cut rates three times in the past year but two-year borrowing rates aren’t cooperating. The two-year note yield touched 4.24% overnight, which is the highest since February 2025. The Fed cut rates in Sept, Oct and December of that year, lowering the Fed funds are to a range of 3.50-3.75%, where it remains.

Fed’s Waller is speaking and gives a hawkish view of policy If there is another hot reading on core inflation this week, the Fed will need to consider raising rates in the near term. Would need to see several months of lower core inflation to gain confidence inflation is moving in the right direction. Concerned

This is a comment that sounds like a resumption of the war in Iran. Trump didn’t TACO at the start of the week, so we will have to see where oil goes from here. “Iran has nothing,” he said. So that really is the question. Can Iran close the Strait?  If not, how long does

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. prior close 6.7770 Injects 224bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar has been broadly stronger since last week following renewed US-Iran escalations. The traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has once again come to a halt and oil prices started to rise considerably. This situation triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations with chances for a rate hike

The GBPUSD has extended its move to the downside after failing to hold above a key technical confluence near 1.3399. That area is defined by the 100-day moving average, the 200-day moving average, and the 50% retracement of the rally from the May low. Repeated failures against that cluster have shifted the near-term bias back

June CPI Y/Y 4.38% vs 4.30% expected Prior 3.93% Full report here India’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.38% in June, breaching the central bank’s medium-term target for the first time in 16 months, driven primarily by rising food and fuel costs amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a delayed monsoon. The inflation

There are reports of a missile attack of Abha International Airport in southern Saudi Arabia  The price of crude oil is trading up $4.30 at $75.74 the price is approaching the high price from July 8 at $75.81. Move above that level and traders would look toward $77.10 This article was written by fl932d6e52a19643278e0f123bca7198f5 at investinglive.com.

A softer-than-consensus core CPI print, as Goldman is forecasting, would likely reinforce market expectations that disinflation is continuing despite the war-related energy price shock, supporting bonds and easing near-term pressure on the dollar. Traders will parse Warsh’s House testimony closely for confirmation of his recent Sintra comments that inflation expectations and risks have both declined,

More from Fed’s Waller: We’ve gotten persistently better and stronger job reports. AI may be affecting financial conditions. If AI were to pop or pull back, there could be pretty big changes in financial conditions. I see no reason to ever be in a scarce reserves regime. If we can figure out a way that

The euro rose early in European trade but gave it back (and more) as Trump said the US would charge a 20% toll on shipping in Hormuz and reinstate the blockade of Iran. European stock markets largely took the news in stride and finished close to unchanged. STOXX 600 -0.1% FTSE 100 flat DAX +0.1%

With so much happening already in markets during the first six months of the year, major currencies have been one of the less exciting spots. Outside of the Japanese yen, volatility among major currencies has been relatively subdued with much of it riding purely on dollar sentiment. The greenback was hurt by the de-dollarisation narrative

Last week, at a New York Fed Symposium, Fed’s Williams offered some clear guidance on what would make him change idea on holding rates steady. Williams said that AI-fuelled demand was his primary inflation worry.  He mentioned that the central bank can look through the transitory energy price shock and tariff-related price increases but added

At this point, there is no telling how the fight over Hormuz ends. The US and Iran tried talking but that didn’t work and now we’re faced with the prospect of an endless war. Despite that, markets are taking it in stride, assured that Trump will back down and return to the negotiating table. WTI

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the short-term as the renewed US-Iran escalation increased the geopolitical risk premium. Given the intensification of military strikes in recent days, the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz came to a halt. After roughly seeing traffic of around 30-40 vessels transit through the strait

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar has been broadly stronger since last week following renewed US-Iran escalations. The traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has once again come to a halt and oil prices started to rise considerably. This situation triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations with chances for a rate hike

Iran will not execute its commitments in the memorandum of understanding as long as US is not fulfilling its commitments We are not the ones that is volating the memorandum of understanding US is the one repeatedly breaching it The memorandum of understanding is going through a crisis phase currently Iran trying to reach a

Bollinger Bands Stock Watch: Nvidia, Apple and Meta Lead August’s Technical Review In this educational stock-market walkthrough, August uses one consistent Bollinger Bands setup to compare Nvidia, Intel, AT&T, Ford, Netflix, Apple and Meta. The charts reveal improving momentum in Nvidia and Apple, continued weakness in several other names, and a potentially important breakout test

Earlier: Angola’s central bank added China’s yuan to the currencies banks can use for foreign-currency reserve requirements, alongside the dollar, euro and rand  The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched

The USD is mixed to start the new trading day with the NZD vs the USD as the biggest mover at the greenback -0.42% on the day. Meanwhile the USD is higher by 0.24% vs the JPY as buyers in the USDJPY return after the decline on Friday. The USD is lower vs the EUR

South Korean shares sink over 5% as SK Hynix profit-taking hits, Nikkei falls too Goldman expects US core CPI to ease to 2.8% year-on-year in June US hits dozens of Iranian targets in another new strikes wave, inclduing attack drones US, European, Asia equites all lower as fight escalation continues in Middle East Another wave

Gold’s slide of more than 1% alongside a stronger dollar reflects markets reviving expectations for elevated interest rates as oil’s sharp 4% jump adds to inflationary pressure, a dynamic that typically weighs on non-yielding assets like bullion even amid heightened geopolitical risk. Oil’s move higher builds directly on Monday’s earlier 3% surge, extending the market’s

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the FX week. In main Asian centre markets its just after 5am in Tokyo just after 4am in Singapore and Hong Kong Its just after 6am in Australia and 8am in New Zealand, Early indications after another nervous weekend in

On Friday, Japan’s finance minister Katayama came out to say that the government would seek avenues to encourage the GPIF to make “substantially greater investments in Japanese financial assets”. That helped to spark some gains in the yen currency and the domestic bond market, amid speculation that it could lead to billions of dollars potentially

The spokesperson says that Qatar, Oman, and Pakistan are all continuing mediation efforts between the US and Iran in recent days. Adding that Tehran remains in contact with all three countries and that “discussions were continuing”. That final point at least alludes to the notion that there is still hope for both sides to engage

This latest CENTCOM wave, following Sunday’s weekend strikes, and the 5pm ET round confirms the US campaign is broadening in scope and intensity rather than settling into a contained exchange, which should keep the fresh risk premium already built into Brent and WTI well supported. The first-time use of one-way attack aerial and sea drones

The selloff shows the Gulf conflict’s oil shock feeding directly into Asian equity sentiment, with Japanese investors pricing in higher input costs just as corporate earnings season gets underway, a combination that could weigh on Nikkei sentiment through the reporting period if oil stays elevated. The far sharper move in Seoul, deep enough to trigger

Brent and WTI both jumped more than 3% on Monday as the weekend’s escalation revived the market’s Hormuz risk premium, though the relatively contained size of the move suggests traders are not yet pricing a full collapse of the interim truce. Analyst views are split, with one flagging doubt that a swift resolution is still

Globex has reopened for the week’s trade with oil up around 3% and equity index futures down. Equity index futures are not down by much.  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level. The dollar is trading higher to start the new week, opening with a gap up as the US-Iran conflict comes back into focus. As such, dollar sentiment

The move is a minor but symbolically notable data point in the broader, gradual erosion of the US dollar’s dominance as the world’s reserve currency, adding to a string of similar steps taken across the emerging world as countries seek to diversify away from dollar exposure. It is unlikely to have any immediate impact on

A examples of the escalation include US airstrikes on Aghajari Oil and Gas Airport in Omidiyeh, Iran,. For its part, Iran fired ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan. Jordan has suspended flights at its Amman Airport.  Bahrain, too, is now soudning air raid sirens.  Earlier: Analysts split on whether Hormuz flare-up threatens the truce

So much for the great “reopening”, eh? It seemed like both sides would try to at least close one eye on hostilities to play to the optics of a deal. But alas, that didn’t even last two weeks. And with that, Iran is back to placing the Strait of Hormuz in de facto closure. However,

It’s a brand new week, but it is very much the same old story for markets. Once again, we’re needing to deal with more US-Iran conflict as both sides continue to trade strikes over the weekend. And this is all coming even after US president Trump saying that talks may continue, even though “in no

A modest upward revision to Japan’s growth outlook alongside a lower near-term inflation forecast would be a nuanced signal for yen and JGB markets, since the BOJ is expected to frame any inflation downgrade as a reflection of falling oil prices rather than a softer policy stance. With the central bank still pointing to weak

US equity futures extended losses Monday, with Nasdaq futures down around 1% and S&P futures off roughly 0.4%. European equities followed lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.6%, the DAX off 0.7% and the FTSE 100 edging lower. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.5%. Risk sentiment weakened further after reports of direct hits on the US

June’s move back above the 50.0 breakeven line offers the first tangible sign that New Zealand’s services sector, which makes up the bulk of the economy, is stabilising after a prolonged soft patch, and combined with the reported surge in the manufacturing index it strengthens the case for a pickup in headline GDP growth toward

The build-up of unsold Iranian cargoes at sea, arriving just as US sanctions snap back into force, points to a near-term glut of Iranian barrels searching for buyers, which could pressure Iranian Light discounts wider even as sellers have so far held firm at $2 to $3 a barrel under Brent. The sharper $5 to

The fresh 5 p.m. ET wave of US strikes confirms Washington is sustaining, not winding down, its campaign against Iranian military assets around the strait, reinforcing the higher supply-risk premium already built into crude following the weekend’s escalation. Explosions reported near Sirik, west of Bandar Abbas, and around Qeshm and Jask, all close to the

A combined autumn fiscal statement covering both tax measures and departmental budgets would represent a significant shift in UK fiscal signalling, potentially giving gilt markets and sterling traders a single, higher-stakes event to price rather than two separate exercises spread across the year. Bundling a land tax proposal, utilities nationalisation plans and a firmer 3.5%

The widening of Iranian strikes to Qatar and the UAE, states that had avoided attack for months, signals a material escalation that traders will read as a fresh supply-risk premium event rather than a contained flare-up. With Tehran again declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed and warning vessels against unauthorised transit, expect renewed upward pressure

The coming week is headlined by two events that have the potential to reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy and drive volatility across the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, equities, and precious metals. The first—and arguably most important—will be Tuesday’s June CPI report, released at 8:30 AM ET. Inflation remains the primary focus for both the

According to statements released by his office, Senator Graham died on July 11, 2026, at age 71, following what was described as a “brief and sudden illness.” There are reports he died of a sudden heart attack.  Graham built a reputation as one of the Senate’s leading voices on national security, foreign policy, and judicial

Headlines: A calmer end to the week for markets? Iran’s strategy in leveraging on control over the Strait of Hormuz looks to be working Global oil supply rose 4.1 million bpd in June as flows through Hormuz resumed, but remained 9.4 million bpd behind pre-war levels – IEA How have interest rate expectations changed after

Lower oil prices generally lead to lower consumer fuel prices … but not always. There is a risk that models are overly tied to oil prices and that’s leading to expectations of lower consumer and business prices but if you’ve seen the fuel pumps lately, you’d know that’s not the case. The large gap has

Canada June employment report shows +18.2K jobs vs +10K expected Baker Hughes total rig count +1 at 580 Fed report to Congress sees ‘stepped up’ inflation in the spring Canada building permits for May -1.7% versus 2.4% estimate Only one thing has driven FX markets this year – Deutche Bank Markets: Gold down $9 to

Earnings season starts in earnest next week and the stakes couldn’t be higher. The S&P 500 is coming off a Q2 where the index averaged 7,499 — up nearly 15% from the Q1 average — while WTI averaged $92.99 on the Strait of Hormuz closure. That’s a combination that shouldn’t work, and yet here we

The USDCHF continues to frustrate both buyers and sellers, with neither side able to seize lasting control. Earlier this week, buyers had their opportunity, pushing the pair above a key topside trend line on the hourly chart. That breakout quickly failed. Yesterday, it was the sellers’ turn. They drove the pair below the converged 100-

Deutsche Bank has a simple message for anyone trying to trade currencies on headlines this year: stop. A war in the Middle East, a leadership change at the Fed, wild swings in tech valuations — and none of it has mattered as much as one thing. The bank’s analysis shows yield has been the dominant

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar gave back most of its gains after Trump walked back on his hawkish rhetoric and said that negotiations would continue, claiming that Iran called him to make a deal. That was enough to trigger a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, taking us back to pre-escalation conditions. Barring

Prior month revised to -6.6% versus -7.6% previously reported building permits for the month of May -1.7% versus +2.4% estimate. Details of the Report: Overall Total building permits:C$12.4B, -1.7% m/m (-C$215.0M) Decline driven by non-residential weakness, partially offset by residential gains Constant dollar basis (2023=100): -1.6% m/m -7.0% y/y Non-Residential Sector Total non-residential permits:C$4.7B, -6.1% (-C$306.1M)

Katayama’s refusal to comment on specific bond yield levels keeps the government’s usual distance from JGB market moves, leaving traders to price yields off underlying fundamentals rather than any fresh verbal steer from the finance ministry. Her emphasis on securing market trust in fiscal sustainability signals continuity rather than a shift in stance, and should

SK Hynix made an impressive NASDAQ debut following its successful American Depositary Receipt (ADR) offering at $150. The shares opened at $170 and are currently trading near $174, up roughly $24 on the session. The enthusiasm is easy to understand. SK Hynix is a critical supplier of the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips that power Nvidia’s

The Baker Hughes Rig count for the current week showed: Total U.S. rigs:580 up +1 Oil rigs:445 Unchanged Gas rigs:126 up +1 The price of crude oil is currently trading at $71.20 down $0.88 or -1.21% on the day. The low price for the day reach $70.77. The high price was at $73.16. The 100 hour

The “Economic and event calendar in Asia Friday, July 10, 2026” is a light one. A couple of things to note, 1. It’s a holiday in New Zealand, markets are closed. This will shut the New Zealand stock exchange. NZD trade will continue in other centres, but with NZ out liquidity will be much reduced.

Crude oil has fallen to new session lows despite escalating tensions in the Middle East. Earlier today, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the cease-fire was “over,” briefly sending prices to the session high of $73.16. However, that geopolitical premium quickly faded as sellers regained control. The decline has now pushed crude back below

The most important line in the Federal Reserve’s July Monetary Policy Report is unusually direct: Measures of consumer price changes “began trending up last year and then stepped up further this spring.” That is a firmer characterization than simply saying inflation remains elevated. The Fed is acknowledging that the inflation picture has deteriorated, with headline

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. prior close 6.7910 Injects 20bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

June final CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim Prior +2.6% June final HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.7% German headline annual inflation is confirmed at 2.3%, keeping unchanged from the preliminary estimate. This represents a slight slowdown from May (2.6%), with the rise in energy prices being less profound this time around. That

Despite US president Trump saying that the ceasefire deal is “over”, things have not gone up in flames just yet. The US and Iran are still exchanging strikes but neither side appears to be very interested to take a step further to escalate things to a point where we see a complete reset on relations.

The rally across Japanese and Korean equities is being driven almost entirely by a chip-sector rebound following a large US capex pledge from a major memory maker, spilling over into Wall Street’s overnight tech gains and lifting AI-linked names across both markets. In Japan, the more structurally important move may be in bonds and the

Citi’s step-down profile, from $75 in the third quarter to $70 in the fourth and $65 through 2027, frames the recent spike as a temporary risk premium rather than a lasting repricing, consistent with today’s quieter tape after this week’s flare-up. The bank’s read leans on Trump’s own sensitivity to equities and bond markets as

Trump wrote on Truth Social: The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue “talks.” We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP There was a

The latest geopolitical headlines once again reminded traders just how headline-driven markets can be. Following President Trump’s declaration that the “Ceasefire is OVER!”, the initial reaction was textbook risk-off: the U.S. dollar moved higher, stocks turned lower, oil prices rallied, and Treasury yields edged higher. However, true to the recent roller-coaster price action, many of

Prior was +87.8K Details: Full time +0.6K vs +154K prior Part time +17.5K vs -66.2K prior Unemployemnt rate +6.5% vs 6.6% prior Avg hourly earnings +3.7% vs +3.2% prior Participation rate 65.0% vs 65.0% prior Public sector -31.0K, private sector +32.0K Manufacturing -17.0K, accommodation and food services +15.0K This is a very good report considering

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Gold has recouped all the losses experienced on Wednesday when Trump said to reporters at the NATO summit that the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran was over for him. Later on, Trump walked back on his comments and said that negotiations would continue, claiming that Iran called him to make a deal.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Futures Confirm Short-Term Bullish Acceptance Above 64,115 Bitcoin futures have shifted from a breakout test to short-term bullish acceptance. The latest move carried price from approximately 63,100 to 64,710, with BTC futures now near 64,620. The key question is whether buyers can defend 64,517-64,615 without forcing a late chase near the

IEA sees total world oil supply 860K bps lower than demand in 2026 (versus 920K bps lower prior) IEA sees world oil demand falling by 1 million bpd in 2026 (versus 1.1 million bpd prior) IEA says world oil supply to fall by 3.7 million bpd in 2026 (versus 3.9 million bpd prior) For 2027,

The USDJPY is down by -0.32% and leads the way lower in the USD. Having said that, the EURUSD, is trading above and below unchanged. The GBPUSD is up 0.10% (lower USD). Other currencies are marginally higher vs the greenback with perhaps the exception of the NZD which is up 0.23% as the aftermath of

Canada’s June employment report came in stronger than expected, with the economy adding 18,200 jobs versus forecasts for 10,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 6.5% from 6.6%. Although nearly all of the job gains came from part-time employment, the underlying details were encouraging following May’s blockbuster 87,800 increase. Average hourly earnings accelerated to

BoJ set to keep interest rates unchanged in July but maintain policy guidance pledging to continue raising rates BoJ may revise up fiscal 2026 economic growth forecast in quarterly report due in July, keep focus on risk of inflation overshoot The Bank of Japan is set to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its

If you can remember back to the dawn of the internet, the discourse was filled with all kinds of utopian ideas about how it would transform the world and in many of those ways it ultimately delivered but on the commercial side, the biggest money maker and the backbone of the largest companes — Google

The GPIF push and the government’s repeated denials of BOJ interference read as a coordinated effort to steady a JGB market that has already sold off to multi-decade high yields on fiscal and political concerns. Given GPIF’s 293.4 trillion yen scale and even split across domestic and foreign equities and bonds, any real shift toward

June final CPI +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% June final HICP +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y prelim Prior +2.8% French headline annual inflation is confirmed at 1.8% in June, marking a drop from 2.4% in May. The decline in price pressures owes much to a sharp slowdown in energy prices, with that recording +11.1%

The Canadian dollar is in focus in early North American trade today with the June jobs report teed up. The consensus — as it alwasy seems to be — is +10K but Canadian employment numbers are wildly volatile. The prior reading was +87.8K, which was the strongest reading since December 2024. You can get a

A push to steer GPIF and other pension funds toward domestic financial assets would deepen the pool of home buyers for JGBs at a time when Tokyo has already flagged gradual rate increases tied to proactive fiscal policy. Combined with plans to expand JGB products aimed at households, the measures point to a coordinated effort

The USDJPY is down by -0.32% and leads the way lower in the USD. Having said that, the EURUSD, is trading above and below unchanged. The GBPUSD is up 0.10% (lower USD). Other currencies are marginally higher vs the greenback with perhaps the exception of the NZD which is up 0.23% as the aftermath of

Asia rallies on chip rebound and Japan pension-flow hopes as Iran risk fades Japan to press GPIF on domestic assets as JGB selloff exposes BOJ independence fears Citi holds $75 Brent base case for Q3: US-Iran deal, Hormuz reopening seen Yen has continued to gain after finance minister Katayama’s comments South Korea says won still

There are quite a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are all for EUR/USD layered between 1.1400 and 1.1450 as noted above. The larger chunk of expiries are seen at 1.1400-05, which holds similar to previous expiries seen earlier this week. The ones here are

Simo’s exit lands at a sensitive moment for OpenAI’s pre-IPO positioning, stripping out the executive investors had increasingly viewed as heir apparent to run the business once the company lists. The gap widens an already crowded succession picture, with product, revenue and strategy duties now split across Greg Brockman, Sarah Friar, Denise Dresser and Jason

As things stand, markets are well expecting the ECB to stay put in July. Policymakers themselves have confirmed that in saying that only a “negative surprise” to the June inflation numbers would really affect their line of thinking. And as we see with the data, inflation dynamics were slightly better in June and that will

The upside surprise in producer prices strengthens the case for the BOJ to press ahead with further tightening, with markets increasingly pricing a hike as soon as October rather than waiting until year-end. Persistent cost pass-through from firms to customers suggests inflation expectations are becoming entrenched, a dynamic the BOJ has been watching closely as

The major US stock indices pushed to the upside in trading today led by the NASDAQ index. Looking at the closing levels for the major indices: Dow industrial average rose 0.27% or 139 points to 52492.26 S&P index rose 0.81% or 60.93 points to 7543.63 NASDAQ index rose 1.30% or 336.24 points to 26206.89 Russell 2000 rose 1.22%