The GBPUSD initially moved higher after the softer-than-expected U.S. CPI report, climbing to 1.3442 and approaching a key swing area between 1.3446 and 1.3465. However, buyers could not sustain the momentum. The pair reversed sharply lower and has since fallen to a new post-CPI low, erasing the inflation-inspired rally. From a technical perspective, the reversal

Pres. Trump is speaking to reporters from the Oval Office with the Iraqi prime minister We are there for Iraq if they need protection. We were called by different countries that said they’d like to invest in the U.S. instead of charging a fee for Strait of Hormuz passage. Gulf states are going to invest

There’s only one game in town for markets today. And no, it isn’t France versus Spain sadly. The trading day ahead will center around the US CPI report for June, with inflation data coming back into focus amid the turn of events in the Middle East this past week. The US-Iran conflict is back on

TIOmarkets has launched its newmobile trading & investing app, a major digital release designed to bring the trading journey, client area and account management experience into one streamlined mobile destination. The app intends to address one of the most common pain points in online trading: the fragmented user journey. Traders often move between platforms, portals,

The prepared text from Fed Chair Warsh ahead of his testimony in the House of Representatives: If we get policy right—and we will—the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past. Underlying inflation over longer time horizons is determined largely by monetary policy. The Fed has no tolerance for

The Strait of Hormuz is once again sealed: first, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it was temporarily suspending traffic through the strait, and then Trump declared restoration of the naval blockade against Iran, since Tehran had violated previous agreements with Washington. As oil has moved back above $80 per barrel and investors have

As Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony continues on Capitol Hill – and pos better-than-expected CPI data -the U.S. stocks are extending their gains. The NASDAQ is up about 204 points or 0.80%, while the S&P is currently up 0.37%. The stronger risk tone is also lifting risk-sensitive currencies, with the AUDUSD among the session’s leaders. The

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance once again but the relative size could act as a bit of a magnet for price action. That especially as trading sentiment will

Just now from Trump: Oil is flowing like never before, thanks to the awesome Power of the United States Military. A special salute to Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, and Commander of the United States Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper. Because of them, and all members

Crude oil prices are moving lower after President Trump backed away from his proposal to impose a 20% reimbursement fee on all cargo ships exiting the Strait of Hormuz. The idea, which caught markets by surprise yesterday and helped spark a sharp rally in oil prices, has now been shelved. Instead, the administration is shifting

The U.S. dollar is under pressure after June CPI came in cooler than expected, reinforcing the view that inflation continues to move in the right direction. Headline CPI fell 0.4% m/m, well below the -0.1% consensus, while core CPI was unchanged at 0.0%, versus expectations for a 0.2% increase. The softness was broad-based, with core

The U.S. dollar is starting the new trading day with broad-based gains, rising against every major currency. The biggest move is against the New Zealand dollar, with the NZDUSD down 0.89% to 0.5799. The Australian dollar is the next weakest performer, falling 0.35%, followed by the Canadian dollar (-0.30%), Swiss franc (-0.27%), British pound (-0.22%),

Prior 95.3 The index rose 2.1 points in June to 97.4, nearing its 52-year average of 98.0. Expectations for better business conditions and real sales expectations improved substantially and primarily drove the rise in the Index. The Uncertainty Index fell 2 points from May to 89, remaining well above its historical average of 68. As reported

Headlines will update live: We will deliver price stability We have the tools to deliver that The Fed won’t pass the buck We want economic growth to be more broad based I’ve demonstated a commitment to indepence in my first weeks at the Fed The purpose of changing communication is to get monetary policy right

Earlier from a speech delivered at an event hosted by BusinessNZ in Wellington, RBNZ Chief Economist, Paul Conway, Q&A now: There was consensus on MPC last week, there was no need to vote We are not talking about moving to a restrictive policy stance We will get inflation back to 2% over the medium term This

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

Prior was 4.2% CPI m/m -0.4% vs -0.1% exp Prior CPI was +0.5% Unrounded -0.349% Core readings: Core y/y 2.6% vs 2.8% expected Prior core was 2.9% Core m/m 0.0% vs +0.2% expected Prior m/m +0.2% Unrounded +0.011% Ahead of the report, Fed funfds futures were pricing in 9.2 bps of hikes at the July

RBC raised its Q2 Canadian GDP tracking estimate to 2.2% annualized from 1.7% previously. After two quarters of stagnation, the drivers are the usual suspects: resilient household spending (impressive given what gasoline prices did to buying power this spring), recovering business investment, and net trade set to add significantly. The annual 2026 number edges up

As a testimony from Kevin Warsh begins on Capitol Hill begins, a snapshot of the markets shows: Forex: EURUSD: 1.1452, +0.62% USDJPY 161.88, -0.33% GBPUSD 1.3411, +0.49% USDCHF 0.8066, , -0.96% USDCAD 1.4057, -0.69% AUDUSD 0.6981, +0.94% NZDUSD 0.5818, +1.22% in the US stock market: industrial average Dow industrial average +45 points or 0.09% at 52550.24 S&P index + 2.92 points or +0.04% at 7518.25

Australia Business Confidence June 2026: -5  prior -14 Business conditions: remains at 3 prior 3 I’ll have more to come on this separately  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

Is it time to buy the gold miners? US June NFIB small business optimism index 97.4 vs 95.7 expected What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? The bond market is one spot to keep an eye out for Long global semiconductors remains the most crowded trade on record as BofA notes ‘no

The scale of the beat, on both exports and imports, is the story here, since it suggests the AI investment cycle and tariff front-loading are doing more to support Chinese trade than the Reuters poll consensus had assumed just a day earlier. The import surge to a five year high is arguably the more significant

A near unanimous poll result leaves little room for surprise on the decision itself, so the real interest lies in the pace beyond Thursday, whether the BOK delivers a single further move to 3% this year or opens the door to back to back hikes if the won keeps weakening. The BOK’s move also confirms

GDX Gold Miners ETF Tests Critical Support as Descending Wedge Tightens GDX is testing the important $72-$74 support area after a steep correction and the closure of several price gaps from 2025. A descending wedge creates potential for a recovery, but buyers still need to reclaim $80-$81 and eventually break the falling trendline near $84-$86

Gold’s slide is the clearest sign yet that the Middle East conflict, despite being the classic trigger for safe haven demand, is currently working against the metal because of the inflation and rate path implications of the oil spike rather than through any flight to safety. With Treasury yields and the dollar both climbing alongside

The framing here matters more than any single line, since Conway is explicitly distancing the RBNZ from a restrictive stance while still flagging further hikes, a calibrated drift back to neutral rather than a tightening campaign. That nuance may cap how aggressively markets price future moves even as the inflation numbers themselves, a forecast peak

China June trade data smashes forecasts on AI demand surge NZD firms as Conway reinforces RBNZ hawkish tilt on inflation risk China’s export growth accelerated in June, surged 27% y/y vs. 18.2% expected Preview – Falling gas prices seen pulling US June CPI lower, but Fed unlikely to relax Gold falls to two week low

Crude built gains through the session and surged into the close as the conflict widened on multiple fronts at once, with the reinstated blockade compounding fears already stirred by direct attacks on Saudi territory. The scale of the single day move, the largest for both benchmarks in weeks, points to a market pricing in a

Conway’s comments push the policy conversation in a firmer direction than the QSBO release alone would suggest, tying the survey’s jump in cost pressures directly to the RBNZ’s own forecasting risk. The explicit reference to upside risk on the September quarter forecast, paired with a direct statement that further reduction in stimulus is likely required,

US navy details that it will enforce a full blockade on Iran US June federal budget deficit $120 billion vs $138 billion expected More from Fed Waller: Now is not the time to use forward guidance. Waller: If there is another hot reading on core inflation this week, the Fed will need to consider raising

After an epic climb down in June, is it time to go back the other way? WTI crude is now up 14% in July and looks poised once again to move back above $80 as US-Iran tensions flare up again. Just as it would seem there is a little bit of hope, US president Trump

The price of crude oil futures surged 9.42% to settle at $78.14, marking the largest one-day gain since April 29, when prices climbed 8.92%. In early trading today, prices have eased to around $77.51, but that still leaves crude higher by roughly $6.03, or 8.4%, from Friday’s close. The rally was fueled by escalating geopolitical

This is the most serious single incident in the conflict so far in terms of direct casualties, and the first confirmed use of Iranian cruise missiles against tanker traffic rather than proxy attacks or blockade posturing. Coming hours before the US blockade takes effect and in conjunction with a separate UKMTO warning of a projectile

June wholesale price index -0.7% m/m Prior -0.6% Wholesale prices in Germany continue to fall again in June, with the annual estimate also easing further to +4.9% – down from +5.9% in May. The year-on-year increase is still notable as it owes to the earlier build up in energy prices and prices for raw materials

It’s all falling apart in the effort to end the war and restart freedom of navigation in Hormuz. Instead, it looks like the US will try to bring Iran to submission via a total blockade of the country. At the same time, it will try to ensure that oil continues to flow by escorting convoys

The round trip in USD/JPY, from a sharp Friday rally back to levels seen before Katayama spoke, is a reminder that verbal intervention alone rarely holds without a concrete policy commitment behind it. The scale of the reversal also suggests the initial move was built more on speculative extrapolation than on confirmed detail, since GPIF’s

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

A beat on consensus is a modestly supportive headline, but the deceleration from Q1’s 6.3% to 5.7% is the more relevant detail for the coming policy decision, since it shows momentum easing even before any further escalation in the Middle East feeds through fully to costs. The MAS already tightened in April specifically to guard

The likely headline decline is almost entirely a gasoline story rather than a genuine broadening of disinflation, which is why the core reading matters more for markets than the top line print. A core rate still running near 2.9% and services inflation accelerating to 3.4% argues the Fed has little basis to relax even as

This lands as a deliberately hedged follow up to last week’s episode, reopening the door Katayama himself had appeared to close after reports emerged that no immediate change to GPIF’s allocation was planned. By tying any future shift explicitly to a sharp change in the investment environment and to GPIF’s existing rules, rather than a

The measures target one of the more tangible funding channels in the Sudan conflict, since gold smuggling has become a major revenue source for the warring parties as the country’s formal economy has collapsed. Closing the direct import route and restricting the chemicals used in extraction, along with efforts to block gold reaching the EU

China trade data for June 2026: Balance of Trade $125.8bn expected 121B, prior 105.43B Imports +36% y/y expected 24%, prior 27.4% Exports +27% y/y, fastest growth since 2021 expected 18.2%, prior 19.4% I’ll have more to come on this separately  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

The broader indices closed lower with the NASDAQ index leading the way to the downside. Chip stocks and AI led the way to the downside: Applovin -12.65% Micron, -4.40% Marvel technologies -7.75%. Intel -6.12% Broadcom, -3.98% AMD, -4.21% Texas Instruments -4.14% SanDisk -12.63% ARM holdings, -7.55% Nebius Group -4.16% Lam Research, -5.83% GE Vernova, -4.49%

The rebound in confidence looks less like an all clear and more like a snapshot taken during a brief window of calm, given the survey ran precisely through the period when fuel prices dipped on the temporary US-Iran shipping agreement, before tensions and prices resurged. What will carry more weight for the RBNZ is the

Coming straight after Westpac’s consumer confidence release, this is the second Australian sentiment survey in one session to show improvement that predates the latest escalation, reinforcing the sense that both readings already look somewhat out of date by the time they are published. The retail price decline, the first in seven years, is a genuinely

The headline bounce is worth treating cautiously given the timing, since the survey window closed on July 9, just before oil prices spiked again on the latest round of Middle East hostilities, meaning the improvement in sentiment is already somewhat stale by the time it is published. The far larger jump in the future family

The location matters as much as the incident itself, since Qalhat sits on the Gulf of Oman coast, precisely the kind of route regional players like the UAE are counting on as a safe alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. An attack there, hours before the US blockade formally takes effect, undercuts the assumption that

The NZD’s move looks like a fairly clean read on Conway’s remarks, a central bank confirming it has already hiked, explaining the inflation logic behind doing so again, and delivering that message in a controlled, credible way rather than sounding reactive. Markets tend to reward exactly this kind of careful hawkish framing, tightening without alarm,

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. prior close 6.7810 Injects 236.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

The retail data points to a UK consumer still spending, but decelerating from May’s pace even with two clear tailwinds in the heatwave and the World Cup, which suggests the underlying trend is softer than the headline numbers imply. The stabilisation in travel spending after April and May’s Iran war related falls is a modest

The move signals the Gulf’s shipping and energy infrastructure is now being rebuilt around the assumption that Hormuz closures will recur, not treated as a one off shock to ride out. A viable east coast alternative at Fujairah would, over time, reduce the leverage Iran holds over regional trade flows every time tensions flare, though

Confirmation of more fighting will keep oil markets underpinned This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

NZ business survey and China trade data due to test recovery narrative Tuesday’s Asia calendar carries two releases with genuine policy weight, even if neither lands with US market-moving force in isolation. The NZIER survey is being watched less for its headline average and more for the shape of the quarter, since the survey window

Reports earlier indicaetd the US was planning at least a few days of strikes.  The time in Tehran is 10:30 pm and this is around when strikes usually start. This article was written by flc97fe4880a4b454993821fe0b770a597 at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF pushed higher during the Asian-Pacific session but once again ran into resistance near last week’s high at 0.8107. The failure to break above that level with conviction invited sellers back into the market, shifting the focus to support. That support came from the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.80755. Buyers stepped in

Why Macroeconomics Moves Crypto: The Forces Behind Bitcoin’s Biggest Market Cycles Interest rates, global liquidity, inflation and the US dollar can influence Bitcoin and the wider crypto market more than any single headline or social media post. In this educational video, Cezar Vana Silaghi explains how these forces shape investor risk appetite and create the

Headlines: US-Iran tensions continue to dominate proceedings in the new week Iran reaffirms it won’t keep its end of the deal so long as the US doesn’t as well Iran foreign ministry says mediators are still continuing efforts to remedy the situation Oil prices consolidate around recent highs amid renewed US-Iran attacks as traffic in

We just had the one data point on the agenda today: NZ services sector returns to growth as PSI hits 50.6 in June NZ’s BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose to 50.6 in June from 48.0 in May, moving back into expansion for the first time since January, though BusinessNZ called the recovery tentative. This

The Fed cut rates three times in the past year but two-year borrowing rates aren’t cooperating. The two-year note yield touched 4.24% overnight, which is the highest since February 2025. The Fed cut rates in Sept, Oct and December of that year, lowering the Fed funds are to a range of 3.50-3.75%, where it remains.

Fed’s Waller is speaking and gives a hawkish view of policy If there is another hot reading on core inflation this week, the Fed will need to consider raising rates in the near term. Would need to see several months of lower core inflation to gain confidence inflation is moving in the right direction. Concerned

This is a comment that sounds like a resumption of the war in Iran. Trump didn’t TACO at the start of the week, so we will have to see where oil goes from here. “Iran has nothing,” he said. So that really is the question. Can Iran close the Strait?  If not, how long does

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. prior close 6.7770 Injects 224bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar has been broadly stronger since last week following renewed US-Iran escalations. The traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has once again come to a halt and oil prices started to rise considerably. This situation triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations with chances for a rate hike

The GBPUSD has extended its move to the downside after failing to hold above a key technical confluence near 1.3399. That area is defined by the 100-day moving average, the 200-day moving average, and the 50% retracement of the rally from the May low. Repeated failures against that cluster have shifted the near-term bias back

June CPI Y/Y 4.38% vs 4.30% expected Prior 3.93% Full report here India’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.38% in June, breaching the central bank’s medium-term target for the first time in 16 months, driven primarily by rising food and fuel costs amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a delayed monsoon. The inflation

There are reports of a missile attack of Abha International Airport in southern Saudi Arabia  The price of crude oil is trading up $4.30 at $75.74 the price is approaching the high price from July 8 at $75.81. Move above that level and traders would look toward $77.10 This article was written by fl932d6e52a19643278e0f123bca7198f5 at investinglive.com.

A softer-than-consensus core CPI print, as Goldman is forecasting, would likely reinforce market expectations that disinflation is continuing despite the war-related energy price shock, supporting bonds and easing near-term pressure on the dollar. Traders will parse Warsh’s House testimony closely for confirmation of his recent Sintra comments that inflation expectations and risks have both declined,

More from Fed’s Waller: We’ve gotten persistently better and stronger job reports. AI may be affecting financial conditions. If AI were to pop or pull back, there could be pretty big changes in financial conditions. I see no reason to ever be in a scarce reserves regime. If we can figure out a way that

The euro rose early in European trade but gave it back (and more) as Trump said the US would charge a 20% toll on shipping in Hormuz and reinstate the blockade of Iran. European stock markets largely took the news in stride and finished close to unchanged. STOXX 600 -0.1% FTSE 100 flat DAX +0.1%

With so much happening already in markets during the first six months of the year, major currencies have been one of the less exciting spots. Outside of the Japanese yen, volatility among major currencies has been relatively subdued with much of it riding purely on dollar sentiment. The greenback was hurt by the de-dollarisation narrative

Last week, at a New York Fed Symposium, Fed’s Williams offered some clear guidance on what would make him change idea on holding rates steady. Williams said that AI-fuelled demand was his primary inflation worry.  He mentioned that the central bank can look through the transitory energy price shock and tariff-related price increases but added

At this point, there is no telling how the fight over Hormuz ends. The US and Iran tried talking but that didn’t work and now we’re faced with the prospect of an endless war. Despite that, markets are taking it in stride, assured that Trump will back down and return to the negotiating table. WTI

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the short-term as the renewed US-Iran escalation increased the geopolitical risk premium. Given the intensification of military strikes in recent days, the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz came to a halt. After roughly seeing traffic of around 30-40 vessels transit through the strait

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar has been broadly stronger since last week following renewed US-Iran escalations. The traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has once again come to a halt and oil prices started to rise considerably. This situation triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations with chances for a rate hike

Iran will not execute its commitments in the memorandum of understanding as long as US is not fulfilling its commitments We are not the ones that is volating the memorandum of understanding US is the one repeatedly breaching it The memorandum of understanding is going through a crisis phase currently Iran trying to reach a

Bollinger Bands Stock Watch: Nvidia, Apple and Meta Lead August’s Technical Review In this educational stock-market walkthrough, August uses one consistent Bollinger Bands setup to compare Nvidia, Intel, AT&T, Ford, Netflix, Apple and Meta. The charts reveal improving momentum in Nvidia and Apple, continued weakness in several other names, and a potentially important breakout test

Earlier: Angola’s central bank added China’s yuan to the currencies banks can use for foreign-currency reserve requirements, alongside the dollar, euro and rand  The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched

The USD is mixed to start the new trading day with the NZD vs the USD as the biggest mover at the greenback -0.42% on the day. Meanwhile the USD is higher by 0.24% vs the JPY as buyers in the USDJPY return after the decline on Friday. The USD is lower vs the EUR

South Korean shares sink over 5% as SK Hynix profit-taking hits, Nikkei falls too Goldman expects US core CPI to ease to 2.8% year-on-year in June US hits dozens of Iranian targets in another new strikes wave, inclduing attack drones US, European, Asia equites all lower as fight escalation continues in Middle East Another wave

Gold’s slide of more than 1% alongside a stronger dollar reflects markets reviving expectations for elevated interest rates as oil’s sharp 4% jump adds to inflationary pressure, a dynamic that typically weighs on non-yielding assets like bullion even amid heightened geopolitical risk. Oil’s move higher builds directly on Monday’s earlier 3% surge, extending the market’s

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the FX week. In main Asian centre markets its just after 5am in Tokyo just after 4am in Singapore and Hong Kong Its just after 6am in Australia and 8am in New Zealand, Early indications after another nervous weekend in

On Friday, Japan’s finance minister Katayama came out to say that the government would seek avenues to encourage the GPIF to make “substantially greater investments in Japanese financial assets”. That helped to spark some gains in the yen currency and the domestic bond market, amid speculation that it could lead to billions of dollars potentially

The spokesperson says that Qatar, Oman, and Pakistan are all continuing mediation efforts between the US and Iran in recent days. Adding that Tehran remains in contact with all three countries and that “discussions were continuing”. That final point at least alludes to the notion that there is still hope for both sides to engage

This latest CENTCOM wave, following Sunday’s weekend strikes, and the 5pm ET round confirms the US campaign is broadening in scope and intensity rather than settling into a contained exchange, which should keep the fresh risk premium already built into Brent and WTI well supported. The first-time use of one-way attack aerial and sea drones

The selloff shows the Gulf conflict’s oil shock feeding directly into Asian equity sentiment, with Japanese investors pricing in higher input costs just as corporate earnings season gets underway, a combination that could weigh on Nikkei sentiment through the reporting period if oil stays elevated. The far sharper move in Seoul, deep enough to trigger

Brent and WTI both jumped more than 3% on Monday as the weekend’s escalation revived the market’s Hormuz risk premium, though the relatively contained size of the move suggests traders are not yet pricing a full collapse of the interim truce. Analyst views are split, with one flagging doubt that a swift resolution is still

Globex has reopened for the week’s trade with oil up around 3% and equity index futures down. Equity index futures are not down by much.  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level. The dollar is trading higher to start the new week, opening with a gap up as the US-Iran conflict comes back into focus. As such, dollar sentiment

The move is a minor but symbolically notable data point in the broader, gradual erosion of the US dollar’s dominance as the world’s reserve currency, adding to a string of similar steps taken across the emerging world as countries seek to diversify away from dollar exposure. It is unlikely to have any immediate impact on

A examples of the escalation include US airstrikes on Aghajari Oil and Gas Airport in Omidiyeh, Iran,. For its part, Iran fired ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan. Jordan has suspended flights at its Amman Airport.  Bahrain, too, is now soudning air raid sirens.  Earlier: Analysts split on whether Hormuz flare-up threatens the truce

So much for the great “reopening”, eh? It seemed like both sides would try to at least close one eye on hostilities to play to the optics of a deal. But alas, that didn’t even last two weeks. And with that, Iran is back to placing the Strait of Hormuz in de facto closure. However,

It’s a brand new week, but it is very much the same old story for markets. Once again, we’re needing to deal with more US-Iran conflict as both sides continue to trade strikes over the weekend. And this is all coming even after US president Trump saying that talks may continue, even though “in no

A modest upward revision to Japan’s growth outlook alongside a lower near-term inflation forecast would be a nuanced signal for yen and JGB markets, since the BOJ is expected to frame any inflation downgrade as a reflection of falling oil prices rather than a softer policy stance. With the central bank still pointing to weak

US equity futures extended losses Monday, with Nasdaq futures down around 1% and S&P futures off roughly 0.4%. European equities followed lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.6%, the DAX off 0.7% and the FTSE 100 edging lower. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.5%. Risk sentiment weakened further after reports of direct hits on the US

June’s move back above the 50.0 breakeven line offers the first tangible sign that New Zealand’s services sector, which makes up the bulk of the economy, is stabilising after a prolonged soft patch, and combined with the reported surge in the manufacturing index it strengthens the case for a pickup in headline GDP growth toward

The build-up of unsold Iranian cargoes at sea, arriving just as US sanctions snap back into force, points to a near-term glut of Iranian barrels searching for buyers, which could pressure Iranian Light discounts wider even as sellers have so far held firm at $2 to $3 a barrel under Brent. The sharper $5 to

The fresh 5 p.m. ET wave of US strikes confirms Washington is sustaining, not winding down, its campaign against Iranian military assets around the strait, reinforcing the higher supply-risk premium already built into crude following the weekend’s escalation. Explosions reported near Sirik, west of Bandar Abbas, and around Qeshm and Jask, all close to the

A combined autumn fiscal statement covering both tax measures and departmental budgets would represent a significant shift in UK fiscal signalling, potentially giving gilt markets and sterling traders a single, higher-stakes event to price rather than two separate exercises spread across the year. Bundling a land tax proposal, utilities nationalisation plans and a firmer 3.5%

The widening of Iranian strikes to Qatar and the UAE, states that had avoided attack for months, signals a material escalation that traders will read as a fresh supply-risk premium event rather than a contained flare-up. With Tehran again declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed and warning vessels against unauthorised transit, expect renewed upward pressure

The coming week is headlined by two events that have the potential to reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy and drive volatility across the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, equities, and precious metals. The first—and arguably most important—will be Tuesday’s June CPI report, released at 8:30 AM ET. Inflation remains the primary focus for both the

According to statements released by his office, Senator Graham died on July 11, 2026, at age 71, following what was described as a “brief and sudden illness.” There are reports he died of a sudden heart attack.  Graham built a reputation as one of the Senate’s leading voices on national security, foreign policy, and judicial

Headlines: A calmer end to the week for markets? Iran’s strategy in leveraging on control over the Strait of Hormuz looks to be working Global oil supply rose 4.1 million bpd in June as flows through Hormuz resumed, but remained 9.4 million bpd behind pre-war levels – IEA How have interest rate expectations changed after

Lower oil prices generally lead to lower consumer fuel prices … but not always. There is a risk that models are overly tied to oil prices and that’s leading to expectations of lower consumer and business prices but if you’ve seen the fuel pumps lately, you’d know that’s not the case. The large gap has

Canada June employment report shows +18.2K jobs vs +10K expected Baker Hughes total rig count +1 at 580 Fed report to Congress sees ‘stepped up’ inflation in the spring Canada building permits for May -1.7% versus 2.4% estimate Only one thing has driven FX markets this year – Deutche Bank Markets: Gold down $9 to

Earnings season starts in earnest next week and the stakes couldn’t be higher. The S&P 500 is coming off a Q2 where the index averaged 7,499 — up nearly 15% from the Q1 average — while WTI averaged $92.99 on the Strait of Hormuz closure. That’s a combination that shouldn’t work, and yet here we

The USDCHF continues to frustrate both buyers and sellers, with neither side able to seize lasting control. Earlier this week, buyers had their opportunity, pushing the pair above a key topside trend line on the hourly chart. That breakout quickly failed. Yesterday, it was the sellers’ turn. They drove the pair below the converged 100-

Deutsche Bank has a simple message for anyone trying to trade currencies on headlines this year: stop. A war in the Middle East, a leadership change at the Fed, wild swings in tech valuations — and none of it has mattered as much as one thing. The bank’s analysis shows yield has been the dominant

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar gave back most of its gains after Trump walked back on his hawkish rhetoric and said that negotiations would continue, claiming that Iran called him to make a deal. That was enough to trigger a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, taking us back to pre-escalation conditions. Barring

Prior month revised to -6.6% versus -7.6% previously reported building permits for the month of May -1.7% versus +2.4% estimate. Details of the Report: Overall Total building permits:C$12.4B, -1.7% m/m (-C$215.0M) Decline driven by non-residential weakness, partially offset by residential gains Constant dollar basis (2023=100): -1.6% m/m -7.0% y/y Non-Residential Sector Total non-residential permits:C$4.7B, -6.1% (-C$306.1M)

Katayama’s refusal to comment on specific bond yield levels keeps the government’s usual distance from JGB market moves, leaving traders to price yields off underlying fundamentals rather than any fresh verbal steer from the finance ministry. Her emphasis on securing market trust in fiscal sustainability signals continuity rather than a shift in stance, and should

SK Hynix made an impressive NASDAQ debut following its successful American Depositary Receipt (ADR) offering at $150. The shares opened at $170 and are currently trading near $174, up roughly $24 on the session. The enthusiasm is easy to understand. SK Hynix is a critical supplier of the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips that power Nvidia’s

The Baker Hughes Rig count for the current week showed: Total U.S. rigs:580 up +1 Oil rigs:445 Unchanged Gas rigs:126 up +1 The price of crude oil is currently trading at $71.20 down $0.88 or -1.21% on the day. The low price for the day reach $70.77. The high price was at $73.16. The 100 hour

The “Economic and event calendar in Asia Friday, July 10, 2026” is a light one. A couple of things to note, 1. It’s a holiday in New Zealand, markets are closed. This will shut the New Zealand stock exchange. NZD trade will continue in other centres, but with NZ out liquidity will be much reduced.

Crude oil has fallen to new session lows despite escalating tensions in the Middle East. Earlier today, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the cease-fire was “over,” briefly sending prices to the session high of $73.16. However, that geopolitical premium quickly faded as sellers regained control. The decline has now pushed crude back below

The most important line in the Federal Reserve’s July Monetary Policy Report is unusually direct: Measures of consumer price changes “began trending up last year and then stepped up further this spring.” That is a firmer characterization than simply saying inflation remains elevated. The Fed is acknowledging that the inflation picture has deteriorated, with headline

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. prior close 6.7910 Injects 20bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

June final CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim Prior +2.6% June final HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.7% German headline annual inflation is confirmed at 2.3%, keeping unchanged from the preliminary estimate. This represents a slight slowdown from May (2.6%), with the rise in energy prices being less profound this time around. That

Despite US president Trump saying that the ceasefire deal is “over”, things have not gone up in flames just yet. The US and Iran are still exchanging strikes but neither side appears to be very interested to take a step further to escalate things to a point where we see a complete reset on relations.

The rally across Japanese and Korean equities is being driven almost entirely by a chip-sector rebound following a large US capex pledge from a major memory maker, spilling over into Wall Street’s overnight tech gains and lifting AI-linked names across both markets. In Japan, the more structurally important move may be in bonds and the

Citi’s step-down profile, from $75 in the third quarter to $70 in the fourth and $65 through 2027, frames the recent spike as a temporary risk premium rather than a lasting repricing, consistent with today’s quieter tape after this week’s flare-up. The bank’s read leans on Trump’s own sensitivity to equities and bond markets as

Trump wrote on Truth Social: The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue “talks.” We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP There was a

The latest geopolitical headlines once again reminded traders just how headline-driven markets can be. Following President Trump’s declaration that the “Ceasefire is OVER!”, the initial reaction was textbook risk-off: the U.S. dollar moved higher, stocks turned lower, oil prices rallied, and Treasury yields edged higher. However, true to the recent roller-coaster price action, many of

Prior was +87.8K Details: Full time +0.6K vs +154K prior Part time +17.5K vs -66.2K prior Unemployemnt rate +6.5% vs 6.6% prior Avg hourly earnings +3.7% vs +3.2% prior Participation rate 65.0% vs 65.0% prior Public sector -31.0K, private sector +32.0K Manufacturing -17.0K, accommodation and food services +15.0K This is a very good report considering

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Gold has recouped all the losses experienced on Wednesday when Trump said to reporters at the NATO summit that the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran was over for him. Later on, Trump walked back on his comments and said that negotiations would continue, claiming that Iran called him to make a deal.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Futures Confirm Short-Term Bullish Acceptance Above 64,115 Bitcoin futures have shifted from a breakout test to short-term bullish acceptance. The latest move carried price from approximately 63,100 to 64,710, with BTC futures now near 64,620. The key question is whether buyers can defend 64,517-64,615 without forcing a late chase near the

IEA sees total world oil supply 860K bps lower than demand in 2026 (versus 920K bps lower prior) IEA sees world oil demand falling by 1 million bpd in 2026 (versus 1.1 million bpd prior) IEA says world oil supply to fall by 3.7 million bpd in 2026 (versus 3.9 million bpd prior) For 2027,

The USDJPY is down by -0.32% and leads the way lower in the USD. Having said that, the EURUSD, is trading above and below unchanged. The GBPUSD is up 0.10% (lower USD). Other currencies are marginally higher vs the greenback with perhaps the exception of the NZD which is up 0.23% as the aftermath of

Canada’s June employment report came in stronger than expected, with the economy adding 18,200 jobs versus forecasts for 10,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 6.5% from 6.6%. Although nearly all of the job gains came from part-time employment, the underlying details were encouraging following May’s blockbuster 87,800 increase. Average hourly earnings accelerated to

BoJ set to keep interest rates unchanged in July but maintain policy guidance pledging to continue raising rates BoJ may revise up fiscal 2026 economic growth forecast in quarterly report due in July, keep focus on risk of inflation overshoot The Bank of Japan is set to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its

If you can remember back to the dawn of the internet, the discourse was filled with all kinds of utopian ideas about how it would transform the world and in many of those ways it ultimately delivered but on the commercial side, the biggest money maker and the backbone of the largest companes — Google

The GPIF push and the government’s repeated denials of BOJ interference read as a coordinated effort to steady a JGB market that has already sold off to multi-decade high yields on fiscal and political concerns. Given GPIF’s 293.4 trillion yen scale and even split across domestic and foreign equities and bonds, any real shift toward

June final CPI +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% June final HICP +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y prelim Prior +2.8% French headline annual inflation is confirmed at 1.8% in June, marking a drop from 2.4% in May. The decline in price pressures owes much to a sharp slowdown in energy prices, with that recording +11.1%

The Canadian dollar is in focus in early North American trade today with the June jobs report teed up. The consensus — as it alwasy seems to be — is +10K but Canadian employment numbers are wildly volatile. The prior reading was +87.8K, which was the strongest reading since December 2024. You can get a

A push to steer GPIF and other pension funds toward domestic financial assets would deepen the pool of home buyers for JGBs at a time when Tokyo has already flagged gradual rate increases tied to proactive fiscal policy. Combined with plans to expand JGB products aimed at households, the measures point to a coordinated effort

The USDJPY is down by -0.32% and leads the way lower in the USD. Having said that, the EURUSD, is trading above and below unchanged. The GBPUSD is up 0.10% (lower USD). Other currencies are marginally higher vs the greenback with perhaps the exception of the NZD which is up 0.23% as the aftermath of

Asia rallies on chip rebound and Japan pension-flow hopes as Iran risk fades Japan to press GPIF on domestic assets as JGB selloff exposes BOJ independence fears Citi holds $75 Brent base case for Q3: US-Iran deal, Hormuz reopening seen Yen has continued to gain after finance minister Katayama’s comments South Korea says won still

There are quite a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are all for EUR/USD layered between 1.1400 and 1.1450 as noted above. The larger chunk of expiries are seen at 1.1400-05, which holds similar to previous expiries seen earlier this week. The ones here are

Simo’s exit lands at a sensitive moment for OpenAI’s pre-IPO positioning, stripping out the executive investors had increasingly viewed as heir apparent to run the business once the company lists. The gap widens an already crowded succession picture, with product, revenue and strategy duties now split across Greg Brockman, Sarah Friar, Denise Dresser and Jason

As things stand, markets are well expecting the ECB to stay put in July. Policymakers themselves have confirmed that in saying that only a “negative surprise” to the June inflation numbers would really affect their line of thinking. And as we see with the data, inflation dynamics were slightly better in June and that will

The upside surprise in producer prices strengthens the case for the BOJ to press ahead with further tightening, with markets increasingly pricing a hike as soon as October rather than waiting until year-end. Persistent cost pass-through from firms to customers suggests inflation expectations are becoming entrenched, a dynamic the BOJ has been watching closely as

The major US stock indices pushed to the upside in trading today led by the NASDAQ index. Looking at the closing levels for the major indices: Dow industrial average rose 0.27% or 139 points to 52492.26 S&P index rose 0.81% or 60.93 points to 7543.63 NASDAQ index rose 1.30% or 336.24 points to 26206.89 Russell 2000 rose 1.22%

A U.S. official says talks with Iran will proceed despite recent tanker attacks in the Strait, which Washington views as terrorism. The MOU remains performance-based, and Iran’s conduct falls well short of acceptable standards. Even so, the administration remains committed to pursuing a resolution: so technical talks continue to prevent Iran from having a nuclear

Iranian news agencies report that there are strikes in Iran for a third day. Iran yesterday retaliated against US bases in the region and is threatening to take that further. The risk is that they start attacking energy or civilian infrastructure in the countries hosting US bases.  On this headline, oil prices have rebounded but

Headlines: US president Trump reaffirms that Iran called a while ago and that they want to make a deal Oil prices continue to surge amid heightened US-Iran tensions and renewed supply fears Dollar holds lower after Trump says that Iran wants to make a deal again ECB’s Escriva: the ECB cannot adjust monetary policy in

Crude oil futures have reversed sharply lower, trading back below the $72.00 level at $71.91, down $1.62 (-2.08%) on the day. Despite another round of heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—including U.S. strikes on Iran and Iranian warnings that oil and gas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and Bahrain could

There is an ISNA report out that cites Pakistani souces and says that Pakistan remains optimistic about preserving the MOU, despite Trump yesterday saying it was “dead”. “Islamabad and Doha are consulting on the return of Iran and the US to negotiations,” the report says. There was also a short time ago an important communique

The USD is little changed vs the major currencies to kickstart the North American trading day as the FX market remains paralyzed by the fluid situation in the Middle East . IN the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective

The U.S. Treasury auctioned off $22 billion of 30 year bonds to complete the coupon auctions for the week. Below are the details from the auction results. High yield 5.058% WI level at the time of the auction 5.061% Tail -0.3 basis points vs average of -0.2 basis points Bid to cover 2.44X versus average of 2.43X

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 and 1.1460 levels. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance, so their impact should be relatively muted for the most part. The ones at the 1.1400 level though

easyMarkets is celebrating 25 years of serving traders with the launch of the largest client rewards campaign in its history. Running until December 2026, the “$2.5 Million Reasons to Trade” campaign offers up to $2.5 million in rewards, recognising the clients who have been part of the company’s journey while welcoming a new generation of

The rebound in Korean and Japanese chip stocks shows how quickly sentiment can rotate on a single overnight catalyst, in this case the Broadcom-Apple supply deal and reports China may allow limited Nvidia H200 purchases, even as the broader macro backdrop stays fragile. The split reaction within each market, chipmakers surging while autos, real estate

The divergence between rising producer prices and cooling consumer inflation captures China’s two-track economy in a single data set: upstream and export-linked sectors are seeing genuine pricing power return as global AI-driven demand lifts advanced manufacturing, while domestic consumption remains too weak for that cost pressure to reach households. That combination squeezes margins for manufacturers

The NZDUSD initially surged after the RBNZ delivered a 25-basis-point rate hike, but the bullish reaction proved short-lived. As broad-based U.S. dollar buying accelerated alongside a selloff in equities, the pair reversed lower. That decline, however, found willing buyers near the 200-hour moving average, setting the stage for a sharp rebound. Today’s rally has gained

Prior week 217K revised from 215K Initial jobless claims 215K versus 218K estimate. Four week moving average 218.75K versus 222.5 K last week Prior week continuing claims 1.806 million revised from 1.814 million previous. Continuing claims 1.814 million versus 1.815 million estimate. The 4-week moving average was 1,808,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous

New York Fed President John Williams is out with some comments on stablecoins and crypto: Stablecoins are more about payments as opposed to stores of value Doesn’t see rising financial stability risks from stablecoins Doesn’t know yet how stablecoins will impact demand for reserves Fed’s ample reserves system is designed to be flexible, can respond

Iranian media with the threats of attacks on US bases in the region. Yesterday such bases in Kuwait and Bahrain came under Iranian attack.  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

The US carried out fresh overnight strikes against Iran, targeting missiles capable of threatening American assets such as aircraft carriers, along with drones and other threats tied to the Strait of Hormuz, according to a US official. The strikes were launched from both land and sea, marking a broader operational footprint than earlier rounds this

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Oil prices surged considerably this week as US-Iran risks resurfaced after both countries exchanged attacks. Yesterday, it looked like we were going back to pre-MoU situation as the US launched a series of strikes on Iran in response to Iranian attacks on three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by

Foreigners have no stake in the Strait of Hormuz US ‘adventurism and interference’ in determining traffic routes in the strait will only result in Iran’s ‘crushing response’ Tehran increased vessel transit in the last two weeks, US actions have seriously disrupted the reopening process of the strait Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said in a statement

All members viewed the risks surrounding the inflation outlook as being to the upside relative to the staff baseline projections It was suggested that the evolution of underlying inflation dynamics was indicative of persistent rather than temporary underlying price pressures It was suggested that it would be misleading to look at current headline inflation in

Governor Shin’s comments mark the clearest signal yet that the Bank of Korea is preparing to move at next Thursday’s meeting, shifting market expectations from a hold to a likely hike after June’s inflation print came in at its highest in two and a half years. The fact that the won has held firm rather

The strikes, say the US military, are aimed at further degrading Iran’s ability to threaten Freedom of Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

Trump says that: “The Iranians called us a while ago and informed us that they want to make deal.” Sound familiar? Because that is exactly the same words used when both sides were fighting and trying to strike a compromise for a ceasefire deal before this. And it’s also the same kind of rhetoric that

Axios reporter with the info:  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

It looks like war is back on the menu, or is it? US president Trump said that he believes the ceasefire deal with Iran was “over” yesterday, before saying that he doesn’t think that the war will start up again here. At the same time though, he says that “anything that happens will be over

The Minutes of Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chairman are out and they have a hawkish tilt: Participants generally assessed that information received over the intermeeting period suggested that upside risks to price stability remained elevated while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had moderated a bit Most participants preferred to drop statement language

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   The Nasdaq has been mostly rangebound since the last FOMC decision due to the Fed tightening risk and overstretched positioning. We saw with the South Korean stock market (KOSPI) how overstretched positioning and a hawkish central bank are not a good mix for the market. The KOSPI officially went into bear market

iFX EXPO, the world’s leading B2B event series for the online trading industry, returns to Hong Kong from 7 to 9 October 2026. Following the success of last year’s return to the city, this year’s edition enters a new chapter as it moves to the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre (HKCEC), bringing together the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar bounced back this week as US-Iran risks resurfaced after both countries exchanged attacks. Yesterday, it looked like we were going back to pre-MoU situation as the US launched a series of strikes on Iran in response to Iranian attacks on three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran

Full report here ECB’s Escriva said he is closely monitoring the uncertain situation in the Middle East following renewed US strikes on Iran, describing the current peace agreement as fragile. However, he emphasized that the ECB cannot adjust monetary policy in response to every geopolitical development and should instead remain focused on the broader economic

It’s been a mixed week for gold after dropping in the past three days, with the US-Iran war threatening to restart. All that before a bit of recovery back to $4,100 today after US president Trump said that Iran is desperate to make a deal again. But after four months of declines and a push

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

The EURUSD has seen two-way price action today, swinging lower, then higher, then back lower before rebounding once again. During the latest move down, the pair tested a key swing low from the daily chart at 1.13908, a level dating back to late July 2025. The session low reached 1.1392, just above that support, where

Government is watching markets with very high sense of urgency Long-term interest rates are decided by markets based on various factors Want to secure market trust by stably lowering government debt-to-GDP ratio It’s not direct verbal intervention and jawboning towards the Japanese yen currency situation, but the headline remark is indirectly alluding to that. The

The push and pull for the dollar continues this week amid a mix of geopolitical headlines from the Middle East. The US-Iran conflict seemed like it was about to start back up after both sides exchanged strikes since the weekend, before US president Trump said that the ceasefire deal is “over”. But after more exchange

On June 18, Iran and the U.S. signed a memorandum of understanding intended to mark the beginning of the end of their military standoff. The deal included 14 points, among them the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and other regional restrictions on Iran, while Tehran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Fast forward

There’s no change to the overall assessment for all 9 Japanese regions, as per the BOJ’s latest quarterly report. Most regional economies are seen as “recovering moderately” still. Besides that, many regions did note a risk of a sharp drop in exports while firms are mulling price increases for food, daily ncessities around the summer

The jump in New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI from 51.3 to 59.7 marks a sharp break from months of soft, near-stagnant readings and points to a broadening domestic demand recovery heading into the second half of the year. Every sub-index moved firmly into expansion, with new orders at 64.1 suggesting the pickup has momentum rather than

Trump’s comments that Iran is now seeking a deal, coming just hours after the first US strike on Iranian infrastructure since the ceasefire, introduce a potential de-escalation signal into what has otherwise been a rapidly worsening week for the conflict. Markets had been pricing continued escalation risk after Wednesday’s exchange of strikes and Trump’s threats

Scotiabank maps out three paths for gold, and none of them get back to the highs. Scotiabank’s precious metals team is out with a scenario analysis on gold that’s highlights the difficulty in pinning down what’s driving it. It’s worth a look, if only because it quantifies something the market has been struggling with all

The additional A$500 million commitment lifts AustralianSuper’s total Indian exposure to A$3.3 billion and signals continued institutional confidence in India’s infrastructure buildout even as global allocators remain cautious on emerging markets more broadly. The timing, landing alongside Prime Minister Modi’s Melbourne business forum appearance, gives the deal added diplomatic weight and may encourage other Australian

ECB’s Escriva: Will keep all options on the table and decide on a meeting-by-meeting basis FOMC Minutes: “A few” participants saw the case for raising rates Gold at $5,000 or $3,150? Scotiabank maps three paths for bullion Iran vows crushing response as CENTCOM says US hit over 80 targets Oil jumps, risk assets fall as

There are some reports about explosions in Iran, bear Bandar Abbas. There are also reports that air defenses have been activated in Southern Iran. Trump strongly hinted there would be attacks today and framed the disclosure as him doing a favor to Iran by forewarning them. This article was written by flc97fe4880a4b454993821fe0b770a597 at investinglive.com.

Bank of America’s call reframes Nvidia’s underperformance as a valuation anomaly rather than a fundamental warning sign, arguing the stock’s next-12-month price-to-earnings ratio near an 11-year low leaves room for a re-rating once August earnings land. The note pushes back directly on two of the market’s biggest overhangs, rising high-bandwidth memory costs and custom-chip competition

The focus for the session is the CPI and PPI data from China.  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

The USDJPY is trading higher on the day, extending further above its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at 161.83 and 161.98, respectively. The rally has also carried the pair above the former 40-year high from 2024 near 161.95, an important technical level that should now be viewed as support. Today’s low reached 162.07, just above

Prior was 4.538% This is a solid 0.6 bps stop through. This was the reopening of the quarterly note so it’s a 9-year, 10-month re-issue. Yields have come in a bit since Trump’s latest comments suggesting the war won’t restart. This article was written by flc97fe4880a4b454993821fe0b770a597 at investinglive.com.

Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, delivering its first rate hike in three years. The Monetary Policy Committee judged that monetary policy remained accommodative and signaled that further rate increases are likely, although the pace and timing will depend on incoming inflation and

The price of oil is up 7% today on a resumption of hostilities in Iran. WTI was last up $4.85 to $75.45. It had been trading near $72 until the US launched strikes followed by Trump saying he could strike again tonight. He also said the MOU was “dead”, though he added the caveat that

Oil prices are under some pressure after the latest comments from the US President suggest that he doesn’t want to escalate further: Anything that happens will be over quickly Don’t think Iran war will start again You can’t let lunatics have nuclear weapons Not sure I want to make a deal with Iranian leaders He

Intel Stock: A Buy-the-Dip Idea After a Nearly 30% Pullback? Intel stock has pulled back sharply from its recent high, and the chart is now approaching the kind of zone where dip buyers may start paying closer attention. I would not frame INTC as an automatic buy here, but I do think the decline is

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but just like the ones yesterday, it could add another defensive layer to any downside price extensions in the

The USDCAD has been confined to a well-defined trading range between 1.4148 and 1.42473 since June 19. The topside has been reinforced by a triple top near 1.4247, while the downside has held on four separate tests near the range lows, highlighting the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers. Near the middle of that range

The USDCAD has been confined to a well-defined trading range between 1.4148 and 1.42473 since June 19. The topside has been reinforced by a triple top near 1.4247, while the downside has held on four separate tests near the range lows, highlighting the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers. Near the middle of that range

US Treasury revokes June 21 Iran oil sanctions waiver One-year inflation expectations hit the highest since 2023 in New York Fed survey Trump on Ukraine war: I think we’re going to be settling Fed’s Williams sees steady trend-like growth for the US economy US International Trade balance -$77.6B vs -$78.5B estimate Canada May trade balance

Conflict but not conflict. The US-Iran ceasefire continues to look ever so fragile and vulnerable, basically balancing on a knife’s edge. The latest development this week is basically Iran deciding to attack some ships in the Strait of Hormuz to start with. Then, the US responded with “a series of powerful strikes” against Iran that

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar bounced back this week as US-Iran risks resurfaced after both parties exchanged attacks. The US launched a series of strikes on Iran in response to Iranian attacks on three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by bombing US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, warning of further strikes

An unconfirmed order to halt all vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, even if not yet officially confirmed, is the kind of headline that oil markets cannot afford to treat cautiously, since a full stoppage rather than harassment of individual ships would represent a much more severe supply shock. The nature of the targets

Headlines: Trump says Memorandum of Understanding with Iran is over, don’t want to engage with them US President Trump: Iran are dirty players, they are ‘scum’ Iran issues statement in condemning blatant violation to ceasefire deal by the US Oil prices jump as Trump says that Iran ceasefire deal is over Risk mood sours after

Germany’s push to rebuild both diesel and gas buffers lands at an awkward moment, given diesel supply in Europe is already constrained by the fallout from the Iran conflict and a steep drop in Russian exports has tightened competition for barrels further. The diesel tender adds incremental demand to a market that has little slack

Gold Price Analysis Today: Buyers Defend 4,121-4,129, But 4,156 Breakout Still Matters Gold is attempting to recover after Tuesday’s selloff, with price trading near 4,136 at the time of this analysis. The key message for gold traders today is that 4,121-4,129 is not a clean bearish breakdown zone. It is a support and decision area.

China’s purchase of more than 26 million barrels in a matter of days sits on top of its normal Gulf buying of around 5.5 million barrels a day through formal channels, making this a genuine surge rather than routine restocking, and it lands alongside Germany’s own diesel and gas reserve rebuild, suggesting major economies on

So much for peace and all that, eh? US president Trump is out now in saying that “I think it’s over” on the deal/memorandum of understanding with Iran. It basically confirms that the fragile ceasefire is likely to end and that both sides are going to continue strikes again, at least for now. And in

If the recent decline in oil prices were to persist, the factors that had concerned policymakers would gradually ease The rise in oil prices over recent months had started to be transmitted to other prices in the economy Monetary policy would normally look through one-off energy price shocks, but we started to see indirect effects

For some context, China has been actively restricting refined fuel exports since the US-Iran war began. It all started with an immediate ban in March here, before some easing in the restrictions since April onward. However, the latest directive here marks a significant change in the tone and surely it has a lot to do

Well, perhaps the most surprising thing is that the deal and/or memorandum of understanding managed to last this long. It always felt like it was a matter of time. Both sides are still somewhat playing to the optics but trying to keep at it for 60 days might just be one step too far. Iran’s

Iran are dirty players, they are ‘scum’ Iran shot rockets at ships, that’s why the US hit back Spain is a terrible partner in NATO, I want no business with them Cut off all trade with Spain, all visits Greenland is a big problem for us I’m not happy with NATO over Greenland We are

Globex is open after its daily break. US equity index futures dropped: ES -11 points NQ -70 Oil futures are higher. The news: US military confirm “have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It was never going to be that simple and straightforward. However, this week was supposed to be a calmer one where both the US and Iran take a step back to regather their composure ahead of another round of negotiations next week. Instead, the deal/memorandum of understanding that was struck in late June is now

CENTCOM’s confirmation of more than 80 targets struck, including over 60 IRGC small boats, gives the market its clearest picture yet of the scale of this round, and it is considerably larger than earlier reporting on a fourfold or fivefold increase suggested in isolation. Iran’s insistence that only its own designated route through Hormuz is

US President Trump is speaking to reporters at the NATO summit in Turkey and his comments were mostly just verbal attacks against Iran and European allies. The markets went into risk-off and oil prices spiked when Trump said that the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran was over for him. He added that they are ‘sick

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold continues to erase the NFP gains as traders await the US CPI report. Moreover, we got an escalation in the Middle East as the US launched a series of strikes on Iran in response to Iranian attacks on three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by bombing US bases in

Rate hike and flags more ahead. Full report is here: RBNZ lifts OCR to 2.50% and flags more hikes as inflation risks linger — Background to this: RBNZ set to hike rates to 2.50% on July 8 as inflation persists, poll shows ANZ expects RBNZ to hike OCR to 2.50% despite sharp oil price fall

Deutsche Bank strategist Mallika Sachdeva is out with an FX Special Report today that’s worth your time, laying out three long-term forces reshaping the dollar. The upshot: the greenback’s problem isn’t that the world is abandoning it — it’s that the world is changing how it owns it, and that changes what the dollar is.

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Crude’s slide from the peak reached during the Iran conflict is doing quiet work on the inflation narrative, giving Williams room to sound more relaxed without committing to any change in rate policy. Traders parsing his comments will note the gap between his softer tone on prices and the Fed’s own dot plot, which still

New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee raised the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Wednesday, judging it was time to start withdrawing stimulus even as effects from this year’s oil shock continue working through the economy. First rate hike in three years. The kiwi $ was marked higher (see chart attached). The

ADDED, as I post there are reports of more explosions in Sirik, iran – borders the Strait. The scale escalation matters as much as the strikes themselves, with a US official describing Tuesday’s action as four to five times larger than the previous round just ten days earlier, a trajectory that argues against a quick

U.S. stocks have reversed lower after rebounding into key technical resistance. For the Nasdaq, that resistance came at the 100-hour moving average, currently at 25,969.10. The recovery from today’s low carried the index right up to that level, but, true to the technical picture, sellers leaned against the moving average and forced prices back lower.

more to come Headline draw smaller than expected, distillates draw vs. build expected, gasoline draw greater than expected — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.5 mn barrels Distillates +1 mn bbls Gasoline -1.55 mn — Oil back in the news after an all too brief respite: investingLive Americas market news wrap: Oil

The hike itself was widely expected, but the accompanying guidance that further increases appear likely, even as the committee stresses timing remains highly uncertain, keeps a tightening bias firmly in place for New Zealand rate markets. The explicit split among committee members on risk balance, with two seeing upside skew and four viewing risks as

I was thinking the RBNZ would remain on hold again today but the consensus is looking for a hike, so I guess I’m gonna cave in and accept it. Previews, not all looking for a hike: RBNZ set to hike rates to 2.50% on July 8 as inflation persists, poll shows ANZ expects RBNZ to

The major US indices closed lower led by the NASDAQ index which fell -1.16% or -302.47 points. For the NASDAQ index it never got out of negative territory reaching a high of down -111.14 points at session highs. The S&P index also traded into negative territory for the entire day (got to -1.36 points at

The US Treasury announces that it’s revoking an Iran-related licence. The moves unwinds the sanctions removal from June 21. An official cited by Reuters says that US negotiators continue to work in good fath but also that Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz were wholly unacceptable and will be met with consequences. Are these

The headline says that the crude oil tanker is one that is Saudi-flagged and adds to the earlier attack on an LNG tanker struck in the same area. In case you missed it: More on reports Iranian forces strike LNG tanker and commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz The supposed reopening of the Strait of

Highlights of the latest NY Fed survey: Three-year inflation expectations 3.3% vs 3.1% prior — highest since June 2022 Five year inflation expectations unchanged at 3% Gasoline price expectations ease to lowest since Aug 2022 Households more upbeat about current and expected personal finances Labor market expectations improved Well this is decisively hawkish. The data

China gold reserves at the end of June 2026: 75.44 million troy ounces In May 2026: 74.96 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of June 2026: $303.72 billion In May 2026: $340.75 billion Central bank buying in gold has cooled a little since the turn of the year but China is

In a video yesterday, I spoke to the resistance in the Nasdaq index near the 200 hour MA and also commented on how the QQQ ETF was testing its converged 100/200 hour MAs. You can revisit that post (and watch the video), by clicking below: For those two indices, esch failed to extend above their

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices have briefly fallen below pre-war levels last week but eventually settled above the key 68.00 support zone. The big unwinding should have run its course now and we could see a prolonged consolidation around these levels. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is still murky but overall, there’s no real

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been mostly rangebound since the last FOMC decision but with a bullish tilt. The only major catalyst we got since the FOMC decision was the NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a

A 25 basis point hike would keep the RBNZ in line with hawkish market pricing and guard against inflation expectations de-anchoring, even as the collapse in oil prices undercuts the case for tightening on headline inflation grounds alone. A hold instead risks triggering a sharp dovish repricing, given markets are already pricing a real prospect

An attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz strikes at the artery through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and a similar share of global LNG flows, meaning any sustained disruption carries outsized implications for both crude and gas prices. Even limited, non-lethal strikes on individual vessels tend to raise war-risk insurance

Capital Economics’ view that the BOJ will look through May’s softer wage print keeps its 2% end-2027 rate forecast intact, suggesting markets should not read too much into a single month’s slowdown in cash earnings growth. OCBC’s warning adds a separate but related risk: persistent yen weakness combined with rising long-end JGB yields could become

The major US stock indices are closing higher on the day led by the Nasdaq. The Dow closed about 53K for the first time ever with Boeing (+3.55%), IBM (+3.45%) and Goldman Sachs (+3.36%), the biggest gainers. Looking at the major indices: Dow industrial average rose 0.29% to 53,061.30 S&P index rose 54.17 points or

The market is increasingly seeing a peak in computer chip pricing and treating earnings of manufacturers accordingly. The forward multiples of memory chip names in particular are low, with Micron now around 7x forward earnings but the market is sensing that the peak is close and that memory prices will do what they always do:

Crude oil futures have been trending lower since topping out at a corrective high of $110.93 on April 30. That decline extended to a low of $67.04 last week, a drop of $43.89, or roughly 39.6%, from that peak. Last week’s low briefly pushed below the February 27 closing price of $67.28—the day before the

Sector Overview The US stock market presents a complex landscape today, punctuated by significant activity in various sectors. While the technology sector generally shows volatility, there is stark contrast within its subsectors. Notably, the semiconductor industry is experiencing a considerable downturn, with notable players like Intel (INTC) plummeting by 9.87% and Micron (MU) down by

The important lessons of the Iran war: 1) The global economy is much more resilient than feared. The 1970s style fears about the United States falling into recession over oil prices were always over done. It’s such a smaller shares of wallet and industrial costs now but in the emerging world and even in parts

The USDCAD has been one of the strongest trending currency pairs since May 1, rallying from a low of 1.35492 to a peak of 1.42473, a level that capped advances on June 24, June 25, and June 30. Since that triple-top formed, however, the pair has shifted from trending to consolidating. Over the past two

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level. It doesn’t really tie to any technical significance, keeping just below the key hourly moving averages in the range of 1.1406-20 currently. As such, the expiries

Oil traders await the US CPI data after war premium fades and prices stabilize above $68 Today’s oil analysis shows the bearish map flipped The S&P 500 remains mostly rangebound with a bullish tilt as traders await the US CPI data Another crude oil tanker reportedly damaged near Oman, around the Strait of Hormuz China

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar came under some pressure in the final part of last week following the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a July hike are now standing at just 25%, while the probabilities

The USDCHF is trading higher on the day, with the latest push lifting the pair back between its key 100- and 200-hour moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart above). That puts the market at an important technical crossroads. The 100-hour moving average comes in at 0.80539, while the 200-hour moving average sits

More – Samsung’s record profit fails to stop shares plunging, dragging KOSPI down 6% Nasdaq analysis today at investingLive.com as Asian session shows tech under pressure Asia stocks fall as chip selloff spreads, breaking ranks with Wall St highs Softer Japan wage data unlikely to derail BOJ hikes, even as yen risk grows PBOC’s Pan

Outlook remains fragile Upside inflation risks coexist with downside growth risks Latest energy shock must not be dismissed as temporary Latest energy shock is not a replay of 2022 Monetary policy must adapt to a changing economy Latest rate hike decision was robust across a range of scenarios Robustness of policy choices very important in

Crude Oil Futures tradeCompass Update: The Bearish Map Flipped After 68.70 Reclaim Prediction Score: +3 / +10Bias: Bullish repair while crude oil futures hold above 69.40-69.60, but not yet a clean upside breakout unless buyers continue building acceptance above 69.60. Crude oil futures have shifted meaningfully since yesterday’s analysis. The prior bearish map was valid

The scale of the disconnect between Samsung’s earnings beat and its share price reaction points to a market already positioned for strong results, leaving little room for further upside on the headline number alone. The simultaneous declines in SK Hynix and Micron suggest investors are reassessing the memory chip cycle broadly rather than Samsung specifically,

The increase in the Southbound Bond Connect quota, from 500 billion to 800 billion yuan, expands the channel through which mainland investors can access Hong Kong’s bond market, potentially supporting demand for Hong Kong dollar and offshore yuan denominated debt. Pan’s comments that foreign exchange reserves will increase allocation to Hong Kong markets add a

If accurate, the episode would fit a broader pattern of Chinese authorities treating candid economic commentary as politically sensitive, particularly warnings that draw comparisons to Japan’s prolonged stagnation. Such incidents can have a chilling effect on independent economic analysis originating from within China, making it harder for investors to gauge genuine sentiment among domestic academics

The currency pair continues to do battle in and around the 162 level to start the new week. And according to Credit Agricole, this sort of push and pull is likely to persist for longer with Tokyo officials set to help keep things in check – for now at least. The firm notes that: “The

May 2026 data from Japan. Household spending: +3.7% m/m expected +1.4%, prior +1.6% -0.3% y/y expected -2.5%, prior -0.5% Wages: Average Cash Earnings +3.2% y/y expected +3.4%, prior +3.5%) Same Sample Base Cash Earnings +2.9% prior +2.9% Overtime Pay +2.9% y/y prior +4.2% — I’ll have more to come on this separately. This article was

US stocks close higher. Another record for the Dow. Nasdaq is the best performing index Crude oil settles down $0.14 at $68.55 German Dax/Italy FTSE MIB close at a new records, but other indices close lower. ECBs Wunsch: it seems that Iran shop has disappeared. Have not seen much 2nd round effects More from Waller:

Nasdaq Today: Bears Have Control Below 29,840, But Traders Should Be Careful Chasing Weakness Prediction Score: -5 / +10Current bias: Bearish while Nasdaq remains below 29,840-29,950, but short entries become lower quality if price is already pressing into 29,715-29,700 support. Nasdaq has failed another attempt to hold the important 30,000 area. After trading above that

The mood music yesterday was a better one with US stocks posting a broader advance across the board. Tech shares led the way to start the week but now, we’re starting to see the ugly side of things creep back in today. The drop is being led by a big selloff in Asia, with the

Halifax/Llyods house prices +0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.1% UK house prices rose for the first time in four months in June, with the typical property now costing £299,330 on average. Of note, the annual growth also nudged up a little to 0.6% but the quarterly change reflects a 0.4% decline to house prices

Industrial production +0.9% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.4%; revised to +0.2% That’s a modest bump up in German industrial output for the month of May, following a downward revision to the April figure. The less volatile three-month comparison shows production from March to May 2026 being 0.1% higher than in the three preceding months.

The next round of talks have been postponed by a week, with both sides claiming it to be due to funeral processions. However, Araghchi is offering up a bit of a reminder as to how fragile the current understanding can be. He says that: “Para 13 of the MoU is clear: Negotiations on final Deal

Japan wage data (cash earnings data) is expected to remain solid. Household spending looks set to fall year-on-year for a sixth consecutive month in May, as households continue to tighten belts against still-high living costs. Part of the decline reflects a tough comparison: last May saw a sharp spending spike, largely from car purchases, after

Bitcoin’s ability to rise on Monday despite fresh doubts over the reserve’s legal footing suggests the market is treating the plan as a longer-term structural question rather than an immediate price driver. With the federal government’s holdings worth more than $20 billion, any eventual resolution, whether housed at Treasury or Commerce, could still matter for

The selloff in chip-related shares across Japan and South Korea highlights how closely the Nikkei tracks sentiment in Samsung and the broader Korean market, even when the trigger is a strong earnings forecast rather than a weak one. The rotation out of technology and into financials and other value names suggests investors are using the

Social media post from the prez. The Federal Reserve will like to see price drops, if this is real. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. prior close 6.7924 Injects 10bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) is UK Royal Navy Naval Reserve–manned: UKMTO has received a report of an incident 8NM east of Limah, Oman. A tanker has reported being hit by an unknown projectile on the port side causing a fire, whilst travelling southbound. No casualties or environmental impact reported. Authorities are investigating. Oil

The shift toward Clearwater highlights a new kind of flexibility in Canada’s oil sector, one built for speed rather than scale. Where oil sands megaprojects take years to plan and build, Clearwater wells can be drilled and brought online within months, letting producers respond almost in real time to firmer prices or supply shocks such

Crude oil futures settled at $68.55, down $0.14 (-0.20%) on the day. Prices traded between a high of $69.26 and a low of $67.82. From a technical perspective, buyers made an attempt to push above the falling 100-hour moving average, currently at $68.77, but the move lacked follow-through and quickly faded. Meanwhile, the 200-hour moving

The EURUSD and GBPUSD have both turned sharply higher in the early North American afternoon, with buyers gaining momentum. For the EURUSD, the pair has erased its earlier losses and is now trading close to unchanged on the day. From a technical perspective, the key development is the failed break below the 100-hour moving average

European stocks finished mostly lower on Monday as investors took profits after the STOXX 600 touched another record high earlier in the session. The broad STOXX 600 slipped 0.35% to 650.5, with weakness in healthcare, utilities, and food & beverage shares leading the decline. Despite the broader pullback, Germany’s DAX outperformed, rising 0.15% to another

The Nasdaq index came under pressure last Thursday after spending much of the week battling its 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below). Throughout the end of June and into early July, buyers repeatedly pushed above that key technical level, but only by a modest margin. Buyers had their shot. They missed. Each

Crude Oil Futures Analysis: Price Still Below the Key Intraday Decision Zone Crude oil futures remain under short-term pressure while price trades near 68.50, just below the key 68.60-68.70 intraday decision zone. For now, the investingLive tradeCompass read stays bear-leaning below that area, while swing traders may prefer to judge the larger bearish case against

ECB Schnabel (hawk) says: Current price shock cannot simply be looked through. Prices are already generating indirect and potentially second round effects We are not in a pre-war situation even after fall in oil prices. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Tech and healthcare stocks diverge: A tale of contrasting fortunes Today’s stock market landscape showcases a stark contrast between the performance of technology and healthcare sectors. Investors and traders are witnessing mixed signals across various market segments, reflecting an intricate tapestry of sentiment and sector-specific news. 📊 Sector Overview Technology: The technology sector is offering

Goldman’s revised central-bank demand model, which lifted its estimated purchases to roughly 60 tonnes a month through 2026 from an earlier 29-tonne pace, gives the bullish case a firmer structural anchor even after the bank trimmed its year-end target by $500 in June. The dispersion across Wall Street, from BofA’s more cautious $4,800 to JPMorgan’s

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. prior close 6.7780 more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Headlines: A week later and not much has changed with the Strait of Hormuz situation EUR/USD continues to erase the NFP gains as focus remains on the US CPI data. What’s next? Yen-tervention risks remain in focus to start the new week Gold extends the pullback after the mixed NFP, but the focus remains on

The episode highlights how fragile the strait’s reopening remains even after the mid-June US-Iran deal, with shipping volumes still running well below pre-war levels and vulnerable to sudden disruption whenever Iran presses its claim over the authorized transit route. The rise in ships going dark, switching off transponders to avoid detection, points to growing uncertainty

The USD is higher with the USDJPY the biggest mover with a gain of 0.59% after testing a swing level near 160.446 on Friday and bouncing and continuing the run to the upside today back through the 100 and 200 hour MA between 161.86 and 161.92. Remember the 161.95-97 was the old high from 2024

The “Trump Accounts” are opening today, and Pres. Trump when asked if they would include Bitcoin, responded by saying “I am a big fan of crypto” and that the Trump Accounts could include the digital currency. It was reported over last week or so that President Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure shows that cryptocurrency became the

In his prepared remarks, Fed’s Waller said: Forward guidance remains a valuable monetary policy tool when used under the right circumstances. Forward guidance can strengthen monetary policy transmission by influencing financial conditions before actual policy rate changes occur. When it works, forward guidance can change economic conditions more quickly than adjusting the policy rate alone.

The USDCHF moved lower last week, and in the process tested an important swing area between 0.80090 and 0.80178 (rednumbered circles on the chart below) on both Thursday and Friday. The decline also reached the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the May 29 low to the June 24 high, a level that came in

Goldman’s shift to one of the most bearish USD/JPY calls on the Street, alongside a market-implied probability of around 72% for 165 by next June, suggests positioning and forecaster consensus are increasingly aligned around further yen weakness rather than a reversal, even with the currency already trading well below what most models suggest is fair

Goldman cuts yen forecast to 165, among most bearish on Wall Street ASB backs RBNZ hold in July Hong Kong pension fund to ease rules on gold ETF investment, source says Oil glut could weaken Iran’s Hormuz leverage as stocks slowly refill Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge, June 2026: 32.9% y/y (vs. prior 4.4%) New Zealand

ANZ’s call for a hike framed around risk management rather than a strong economic signal suggests the bank sees limited room for the RBNZ to sit still even with headline inflation pressures easing. The emphasis on a soft New Zealand dollar as an underappreciated inflation risk points to FX markets as a key channel to

Australia Melbourne Institute inflation gauge is a privately conducted survey. Its not so much focused on any more now that the Australian Bureau of Statistics produces monthly CPI data. 3.9% y/y for June 2026 prior 4.4% -0.4% m.m prior -0.3% Also: ANZ-Indeed Job Ads, also for June -0.2% m/m prior 1.8% This article was written

From the end of last month: There’s still mud in the waters on how things are playing out with the Strait of Hormuz Last week, the average traffic saw around 30 to 40 vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz per day. And despite that, crude oil tankers were still limited to less than double digits

Towards the end of last week, USD/JPY offered up some interesting price moves. The currency pair fell in the run up to the US jobs report before some pushing and pulling in holiday-thin trading on Friday. But after settling near unchanged from just before the non-farm payrolls, we’re now seeing the pair run up again

Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy Inc. (formerly known as MicroStrategy), is the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company. Strategy has disclosed the sale of 3,588 Bitcoin (BTC) for approximately $216 million between June 29 and July 5, 2026. According to a regulatory filing, the liquidations were executed to fund distribution payments for the company’s perpetual

Any resumption of Japanese purchases would mark a symbolic shift in Iran’s export base, which has leaned heavily on Chinese buyers since 2019, though the near-term impact on flows looks limited given the temporary waiver’s narrow window and unresolved shipping risk. Well-stocked Asian refiners are unlikely to rush into orders under a waiver expiring August

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar came under some pressure in the final part of last week following the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a July hike are now standing at just 24%, while the probabilities

Pouyanné’s comments point to an unusual bifurcation in the oil complex, with crude prices collapsing on a stockpile overhang even as refined product markets stay tight and priced well above what current Brent levels would imply. That gap creates an opportunity in refining margins for companies with spare processing capacity, while continuing to squeeze fuel-dependent

Japanese markets open the week with the yen having pulled back modestly from Tuesday’s 40-year low, but the underlying pressures that drove it there remain firmly in place, keeping intervention risk on the table for the session(s) ahead. The combination of a still-weak currency, rising import costs and a fresh 30-year high in benchmark JGB

A near-even shadow board points to genuine uncertainty heading into the July review, suggesting markets should not treat a hold as a foregone conclusion and may see volatility around the decision itself. The consistent view that the OCR needs to reach 3 to 3.25% over the coming year, regardless of the July call, anchors medium-term

S&P 500 ES futures are +0.4% to open the new week’s trade. NQ +1.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Stockholm meeting fits a broader pattern of Beijing signalling openness to foreign capital at a time of slowing domestic growth and soft consumer demand, aiming to shore up sentiment among multinationals weighing exposure to China. Coming just ahead of a China-EU leaders’ summit, the outreach to a marquee European investor like the Wallenberg family

The report says that the Chinese navy has launched a missile towards an area in the international waters of the South Pacific. Adding that they have conducted the test launch of said strategic missile by submarine. Earlier in the day, media reports from Australia and New Zealand said that the respective governments were informed of

Not too much change from late on Friday. I’ll be back soon with weekend news. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The rotation into India reflects a broader search for diversification as concerns build over the durability of the AI-driven rally in markets like South Korea and Taiwan, positioning the Nifty 50 as a relative safe haven precisely because of its limited AI exposure. Falling volatility, a stabilizing rupee and receding oil-linked pressure on refiners and

The divergence between the world price index, up 1.3% year on year, and the NZD-denominated index, down 0.3% in May on currency strength, highlights how much of the recent gains are being offset for New Zealand exporters by exchange rate movements rather than being passed through in full. Aluminium remains the clearest read-through from the

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Anthropic’s plans to buy 1.4GW of Aussie data centre capacity will cost as much as $US15 billion ($21.6 billion) to build, Australian Financial Review cite a tender issued confidentially by Anthropic Anthropic is about six weeks away from making a final investment decision This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

An 18-fold profit jump would confirm the memory sector’s rally is being driven by genuine earnings momentum rather than speculation, reinforcing the trillion-dollar valuations now attached to Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron after triple-digit share gains this year. Rising DRAM and NAND prices point to further margin expansion for memory makers even as they squeeze

The Barmer commissioning underscores a widening divergence in global refining capacity, with India adding processing capability just as Western economies continue to retire ageing plants, a trend likely to shift the geography of refined product exports further toward Asia over the rest of the decade. With India projected to account for close to a quarter

It’s a quiet one the data agenda, these unlikely to move financial markets around too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mon: BoC Business Outlook Survey (Jul), German FactoryOrders (May), Swiss Unemployment Rate (Jun), EZ Construction PMI (Jun), RetailSales (May), PPI (May), US Composite/Services PMI Finals (Jun), ISM ServicesPMI (Jun) Tue: EIA STEO (Jul), Japanese Household Spending(May), German Industrial Production (May), French Balance of Trade (May), USADP Weekly Employment Change, Balance of Trade, RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism(Jul),

Nike stock analysis: Is NKE quietly building a long-term bottom after earnings? Nike stock is showing signs of a constructive long-term repair after its recent post-earnings volatility. The setup is not strong enough to justify chasing rallies, but the chart has improved enough that patient investors may want to watch pullbacks into support. On my

Discover the real reason why trading consistency beats intensity, and how you can turn consistency into consistent profits The post Why Trading Consistency Beats Intensity appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

The widening gap between redemption requests and actual payouts points to a liquidity mismatch that is becoming harder for fund managers to paper over, with even less-exposed names like Apollo, Ares and HPS now seeing requests accelerate. Managers gating withdrawals to preserve capital, rather than meeting requests in full as some did earlier in the

BOE seeks to hit inflation target without damaging output Market pricing puts the odds of a hike in November at roughly 50%. If oil stays down here the effects of the war should be unwound quickly so we will see where inflation lands by Q4. The pound is up 6 pips to 1.3352 today and

Services PMI 49.4 vs 48.9 prelim Prior 47.7 Composite PMI 50.0 vs 49.5 prelim Prior 48.5 Both the services and composite prints are 3-month highs respectively, reflecting a modest recovery in business activity in the euro area to wrap up Q2 2026. New business volume may have fallen for a fourth successive month, but at

The rebound confirms fuel prices, rather than a broader loss of confidence, were the key driver of the March slump, with the sharp and symmetric reversal in inflation expectations likely to reinforce the RBNZ’s comfort that the price shock is not embedding itself into household psychology. The pickup corroborates other recent signals, including a bounce

Services PMI 54.2 vs 50.9 expected Prior 50.1 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 48.1 Final Composite PMI 49.5 vs 48.0 prelim Prior 48.8 Key findings: Business activity falls for third month running, but cost pressures ease substantially June sees further, albeit slightly slower, drop in business activity Input price inflation retreats to seven-month low Employment falls at weakest rate in current sequence of job losses Comment: Phil

Cereal and packaged food giant General Mills reported earnings this week and the read from the was unambiguous: the consumer is stressed, staying stressed, and the company is planning around it rather than hoping for a turn. The core messages is that they don’t assume any improvement. Dana McNabb (COO) laid it out directly: “What

Services PMI 46.8 vs 47.4 prelim Prior 44.3 Composite PMI 47.2 vs 47.6 prelim Prior 44.9 The final readings are softer than the initial estimates but at least reaffirms that the downturn in the French economy is less profound in June than it was in May. Of note, the PMI data reveals the slowest declines

UBS sees Fed on hold as Warsh downplays inflation risk despite hike bets China services growth eases slightly as export orders hit 20-month high Japan fin min says ready to respond to FX moves PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8047 (vs. estimate at 6.7808) Canada – PM Carney confirms southern Trans

Interest rate moves are determined by markets Monetary policy falls under the jurisdiction of the BOJ Government will continue to work closely with the BOJ Will not pursue fiscal policies that undermine market confidence Closely monitoring market movements with high sense of urgency Always monitoring daily market moves, economic indicators Will take appropriate action on

Gold rallied in Asia and has held its gains since in quiet holiday trading. It’s up $53 to $4147 and looking to climb for the first week in five. The gain today came in a burst in Asia and topped out at $4194 before chopping sideways. Gold has struggled since topping at $5418 just before

Prior 49.3 Final Composite PMI 49.3 vs 49.4 prelim Prior 49.7 Key findings: Activity falls to greatest extent for nearly three and a half years New orders decrease for fourth month in a row Input cost inflation eases to its lowest since March Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “June

The main highlight in ending the week for US markets was the non-farm payrolls release yesterday. It was a disappointing headline figure, which led to further downside in the dollar. In case you missed it: US June non-farm payrolls +57K vs +110K expected Still, US stocks closed in a more mixed mood amid a big

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has weakened across the board yesterday following the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a July hike dropped to 17% vs 30% before the NFP release, and the probabilities for a

UBS call that markets are overpricing Fed tightening. UBS see current elevated yields as a buying opportunity in short- to medium-maturity quality bonds rather than a level to fade. The disconnect between resilient headline jobs data and decelerating wage growth is central to UBS’s thesis that labor market strength isn’t translating into the kind of

Japan’s largest union group Rengo confirms that the final tally of the annual labour talk results showed that Japanese firms have agreed to raise pay by 5.01% on average this year. This figure is of course watered down from the 5.26% according to preliminary estimates, as is typically the case. That now makes it three

Prior 49.4 Composite PMI 50.8 vs 50.4 prior Key findings: Growth of Italian service sector reinstated, supported by fresh intake of new business in June Strength in domestic sales drives renewed growth in total new business Cost pressures soften and confidence improves Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The service sector joined

It’s a quick drop of around 50 pips for USD/JPY this time, with the timing of things being somewhat similar to when the drop yesterday occurred. This time around at least, we’re seeing the dollar also stay under pressure across the board after having softened following the US non-farm payrolls yesterday. In case you missed

There are a few large expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. However, they do sit quite a distance away from the current spot price. As such, the expiries highlighted may not feature much into play but is worth noting just in case. The first one is for EUR/USD

Bitcoin Futures Analysis Today: BTC Repair Holds, But Bulls Still Need $62.7K Confirmation Bitcoin futures have repaired from the late June lower-value zone, but the move is now stalling below the first major daily confirmation area. The short-term structure is no longer bearish while BTC holds above $61,100-$61,300, but a clean bullish takeover still needs

US June non-farm payrolls +57K vs +110K expected US initial jobless claims 215K vs 220K estimate. US May factory orders -1.3% vs -1.8% expected US officials believed Israel might have been plotting to assassinate Iran’s negotiators Zuckerberg: AI agent development over last four months hasn’t accelerated as expected Blackstone said to abandon a large data

American officials were worried that Israel was plotting to kill Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the parliament, during ceasefire negotiations in April. The NYT reports. Fearful that an Israeli assassination effort would doom the negotiations, the United States, according to some of the officials, went so far as

The headline return to expansion is unlikely to shift RBA rate expectations much given it was driven by staffing rather than demand, with new orders now contracting for a fourth straight month and backlogs being run down rather than rebuilt. The sharpest signal for markets is the confidence collapse to a two-and-a-half-year low, which points

Lagarde’s insistence that the June hike remains appropriate even under a more favourable Middle East scenario signals the ECB is prioritising underlying inflation persistence over a peace dividend from the Iran ceasefire, limiting scope for near-term dovish repricing. The modest 0.1 percentage point downgrade to growth, against a labour market still near record-low unemployment, points

Earlier in the week we had official PMIs from China China factory PMI beats forecast at 50.3 as AI-linked exports drive expansion China’s domestic demand engine sputtering despite stronger headline PMI And also the private manufacturing PMI: RatingDog PMI caps China’s strongest quarter for manufacturing since 2020 Today it’s the private services PMI. The ‘expected”