Headlines:
- Indirect technical talks between US and Iran said to be underway in Doha – report
- The best and worst performers in the first half of 2026
- Japan top currency diplomat says April intervention has helped to slow yen decline
- Heads up: Major central bank heads set to speak on a policy panel later today
- ECB’s Wunsch: Would need stronger second-round effects to justify further tightening
- ECB policymaker Nagel says he will keep options open for July and September decisions
- ECB policymaker Demarco says should not rush into next rate hike
- No negative surprises for the ECB as Eurozone inflation eases in June
- Eurozone manufacturing activity eases in June but price pressures are abating – PMI data
- UK June final manufacturing PMI 52.5 vs 53.1 prelim
- US job cuts cool in June, AI remains the main reason for layoffs
Market update:
- WTI crude down 0.7% to $69.00
- S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, Nasdaq futures down 0.5%
- USD leads, AUD lags on the day
- US 10-year yields up 6 bps to 4.48%
- Gold up 0.6% to $4,030
- Bitcoin down 0.3% to $58,473
It was a more pensive session as we get into the new month, quarter, and half-year.
Putting aside the end of June flows, we’re seeing a more mixed mood across markets as we get things going in July.
US-Iran developments continue to stay in focus but in the meantime, oil prices continue to ease as traders are still taking the more optimistic side of things. WTI crude is down 0.7% to $69.00 as traffic along the Strait of Hormuz continues to show healthier signs but not quite a significant reopening.
Besides that, tech shares are starting to fall back again after a sluggish June month. That’s seeing S&P 500 futures fall by 0.2% and Nasdaq futures down 0.5%, with European indices also seeing more of a mixed mood to start the new month.
We also had the overall Eurozone inflation data but it mainly reaffirmed a bit of a slowdown in the annual numbers, affording the ECB added flexibility to wait until after the summer before deciding on policy.
As for major currencies, the dollar is continuing to hold firmer with EUR/USD down 0.3% to 1.1385 and AUD/USD down 0.4% to 0.6890 on the day. USD/JPY remains of much interest with the currency pair up 0.1% to 162.70 and keeping at 40-year highs. Will Japan intervene during the US holiday this week?
In other markets, Treasury yields are picking up again with 10-year yields up 6 bps to 4.48% while precious metals are also up with gold sitting higher by 0.6% to $4,030 on the day.
All eyes now turn towards the US jobs report, which will come early on Thursday amid a holiday-shortened week in the run up to US Independence Day over the weekend.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
