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The pair looks to have reached an inflection point that is leading to a deeper pullback from its recent 13-year high. The RBNZ held its Official Cash Rate steady at 2.25% today but delivered a hawkish surprise. The central bank revealed that its decision was split 3-3, forcing a casting vote, and explicitly warned that […]

Back in December, Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said the federal funds rate could fall to 3 to 3.25% by year-end, while BlackRock expected a pause at the start of the year and, with a new Fed Chair in place, a shift toward lower rates. Fast forward to the end of May, and

Full article here During a phone call with PBS News, Trump explicitly stated that Iran would not receive sanctions relief in exchange for giving up its highly enriched uranium. This comes amid ongoing efforts between the US and Iran to end three months of conflict and reach an agreement on a memorandum of understanding. On

Full report here De Guindos characterized the current situation as a global supply shock that will ultimately lead to a combination of lower economic growth and higher inflation. He said that while the overall net impact is inflationary, the resulting economic slowdown is already weakening aggregate demand, as seen in declining sentiment indicators and services

Sector Overview Today’s market shows a contrast between sectors as technology stocks see a notable decline, while healthcare and consumer cyclicals lead with strong performances. The semiconductor space is under pressure, evident by Nvidia (NVDA) dropping 2.24% and Intel (INTC) falling 4.30%. In contrast, consumer cyclicals such as Amazon (AMZN) enjoy a rise of 1.92%,

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Breman press conference. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

With new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh settling into his office for his first week on the job, Neel Kashkari told Nikkei that the Fed could ultimately embark on a series of rate hikes if inflation pressures tied to the turmoil in the Middle East continue to build. If the current storyline persists — with oil

Prior was 3.955% Bid to cover at 2.34 vs 2.33 prior Primary Dealers 12.8% Direct 12.3% Indirect 74.9% A negligible tail of 0.1 bps. Treasury yields have been falling steadily since the May 19 highs. The optimism regarding a US-Iran deal helped ease inflation concerns as it also contributed to lower oil prices. Nevertheless, an

Just the data in this post. I’ll have more to come on this separately, details etc. AUD is down on the results. Headline and m/m core lower than expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The Official White House Rapid Response account on X has indirectly denied the Iran’s state TV MoU draft reported earlier in the session. The initial market gains have been erased anyway as Iran’s state TV also added that no agreement has been reached yet, so all in all we are still waiting for something concrete.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was +3 Services index +14 vs +9 prior Manufacturing shipments +16 vs -2 prior Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The future indexes for shipments and new orders increased further into positive territory. The expectations index for employment rose notably

We’re not there yet on an Iran deal. We’re not satisfied with it. Maybe we go back and finish it, maybe we don’t. Iran is negotiating on fumes. Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon. Rubio’s comments: Trump preference is to negotiate with Iran. I think there’s been progress towards a deal. We will see over

Elon Musk has discussed combining SpaceX and Tesla with colleagues, CNBC reports, as SpaceX prepares its Nasdaq debut with a $1.25 trillion private market valuation. Summary: Source: CNBC, citing people familiar with the matter; SpaceX IPO prospectus Musk has discussed folding SpaceX and Tesla together with colleagues, according to sources; Tesla employees say the prospect

Despite some escalation in military actions in the past day, markets are still holding out hope that we will see a US-Iran “deal” come forth this week. The US military conducted what it said was “self defense” strikes against Iran, with Tehran lambasting that as to saying it was a violation to the April ceasefire

The nomination stage is now open for the UF AWARDS GLOBAL 2026. If your brand deserves to stand among the industry’s leading Fintech, financial services providers and brokers, this is your chance. The awards recognise the B2B and B2C brands, companies and firms which propel the industry forward through innovation, dedication and reliability. Past winners

S&P 500 +0.09% Nasdaq Composite +0.14% Dow Jones +0.20% The major US stock indices opened higher today as the US-Iran deal optimism continues to be a tailwind for risk assets. Earlier in the session, Iran’s state TV said that it has a draft of the initial unofficial framework for the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with

A senior BOJ official told parliament that Japanese financial conditions remain loose despite rising yields, with negative real rates and strong corporate profits keeping the case for further normalisation intact. Summary: Sources: BOJ Monetary Affairs Department Director-General Akio Okuno, parliamentary testimony, May 27; BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, opening remarks at the 2026 BOJ-IMES Conference, May

The RBNZ is expected to hold its OCR at 2.25% at today’s Monetary Policy Statement but deliver a hawkish forecast update, with the terminal rate seen rising to around 3.2% as Iran war energy costs threaten to push inflation above 4%. Summary: Source: Westpac Research RBNZ preview note The RBNZ is expected to hold the

For much of this conflict, gold tends to move in tandem with the beat of risk trades. But so far this week, it has been anything but that. While broader markets are feeling more optimistic on the US-Iran situation, gold and silver have struggled to stay afloat instead. And with the drop we’re seeing today,

The session started with a more tepid mood but we’re seeing a more risk-on tilt start to develop again now. European stocks are holding modest gains since the open while US futures continue to push up after the record closes in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq yesterday. Of note, S&P 500 futures are up 0.3%

For a few days, the talk of the town is an imminent “deal” between the US and Iran. One that is labelled as a “deal to put an end to the conflict”. While that sounds nice on paper, let’s once again be reminded of what this actually means. A quick summary: This deal represents a

The RBNZ held its OCR at 2.25% today by the governor’s casting vote after a 3-3 committee split, signalling rates will need to rise sooner and by more than expected as inflation heads for 4.3%. Summary: Source: RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement and minutes, May 27, 2026 The MPC voted 3-3 on whether to hold or

The S&P closed at a record level surpassing the high on May 14 at 7501.25. The index is closing at 7519.08 up 45.59 or 0.61% The Nasdaq index is also closing at a new record, stretching above it’s highest close at 26635.22. The index is closing at 26656.18, up 312.21 or 1.19% The Dow closed

It’s a packed agenda today. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is speaking. Yesterday we heard from Deputy Governor Himino. Himino confirmed the BOJ intends to continue raising its policy rate and adjusting the degree of monetary accommodation in line with economic activity, prices and financial conditions He said the BOJ will consider the timing and

ADDED – details here: NZD jumps – RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25% by casting vote as committee splits 3-3 on rate hike —- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Breman press conference will follow at 0300 GMT / 2300 US Eastern time Background to today: RBNZ expected to hold today but hawkish forecasts to signal

Nasdaq futures hold bullish structure, but cooling, as AI IPO frenzy of last week added another Wall Street risk-on narrative. Today we have a new “deal with Iran” narrative. Nasdaq futures remain structurally bullish, but NQ is now pressing into an important resistance zone near 30118-30159. The broader story is not only technical. A Financial

The struggle continues for the yen currency, even if market players are feeling more optimistic about the US-Iran situation. With each passing day the war continues, the damage to the Japanese economy continues to stack up. That especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure. It’s hard to remember the last time

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. It is not one that ties to any technical significance but much like before, could help to keep a lid on price action as we look to the

Oil falls in early Asian trade on hopes for a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though options data shows unusually low investor conviction and a 37% implied chance of oil above $100 in three months. Summary: Source: Wall Street Journal (gated); Capital Economics analyst Kieran Tompkins Oil declined in early Asian trading

Solid data from China. I’ll have more to come on this separately, details etc. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau tells CNBC the bank will do what is necessary to return inflation to 2%, as eurozone prices hit 3% on Iran war energy shock. Summary: Source: CNBC interview with Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau told CNBC the ECB will

RBNZ Gov Breman says all policy setters agree on hikes, but not on timing BOJ signals loose conditions persist as Ueda lays groundwork for rate hike ahead Australia April CPI slows to 4.2% but core inflation creeps to highest since 2024 NZD jumps – RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25% by casting vote as committee splits

French consumer confidence tumbled lower in the latest month to 82, that being the weakest such reading since March 2023. Since the start of the US-Iran conflict, consumer confidence has fallen by 9 points in the past three months. That marks the steepest decline over the same period since 2022. The details reveal a further

Social media reports, so please treat with care. Talk of this has been circulating, started by an Al Jazeera chief a few hours ago. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s April CPI slowed to 4.2% annually, undershooting forecasts, as a fuel excise cut weighed on headline, but the trimmed mean core measure edged up to 3.4%, its highest since late 2024. Summary: Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, April 2026 monthly CPI indicator Headline CPI rose 0.4% in April, slowing the annual pace to 4.2%

NAB forecasts Australian April headline CPI easing to 4.4% on fuel excise relief, but warns of broadening cost pass-through with trimmed mean seen at 3.4%, risk skewed higher. Summary: NAB forecasts headline CPI falling to 4.4% in April from 4.6%, driven by a roughly 7% monthly decline in automotive fuel prices following the government’s 32

The USD is modestly higher to start the US session reversing some of the declines from the moves during the holiday session yesterday. Against the 3 major currencies – the EUR, JPY and GBP – the gains are moderate with a rise of 0.08% vs the EUR, 0.19% vs the JPY and 0.24% vs the

The US treasury auctions $69B of 2 year notes at a high yield of 4.071% WI at the time of the auction 4.071% Bid to cover 2.64X vs average of 2.62X Dealers 12.3% vs 12.8 avg Directs 30.1% vs average of 29.2% Indirects 57.6% vs 6-month average of 57.9% Dealers 12.3% vs average of 12.8%

The AUDUSD pushed higher today, but the rally once again stalled near a key technical ceiling. The price tested the 50% retracement of the move down from the May high at 0.71774, and sellers leaned against that level to keep the upside capped. That area also lines up with prior swing highs, making it a

As the US and Iran maneuver through the minefield of a ceasefire memorandum, Israel and Lebanon continue the fight. Netanyahu is saying that the Israel military forces are on the ground in Southern Lebanon and taking control of strategic areas. The tightrope act is precarious. Will peace eventually prevail or will war escalate? This article

The USDJPY is stretching to new highs and in the process is moving above the high from last week at 159.337. The price just ticket to 159.35. Can the momentum higher continue. Earlier today, the pair moved back above its 100 hour MA at 159.008, and that shift helped tilt the bias back to the

Prior month 92.8 Consumer confidence 93.1 vs 92 estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

WTI crude is cutting losses to near $93 now, moving well off the overnight low near $89.40. Still, there is some ways to go in recovering the opening gap lower this week. Traders were more optimistic about US-Iran developments, with eyes on a framework agreement and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That

Looking through inflation spike is no longer an option There are increasing signs that inflation shock is spilling over to other parts of the consumption basket Even if Iran war ended today, policy action is needed given the damage to energy infrastructure The negative impact on growth from the shock will be stronger Incoming data

Prior month -0.1%. More than half of major U.S. metropolitan markets posted year-over-year price declines in February, Case Schiller index for March -0/25 vs 0.1% estimate YoY index 0.8%% vs 1.0% estimate Chicago reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 6.1% increase in March, followed by New York and Cleveland with

ECBs Sleijpen is saying that the: ECB will do all it can to tame inflation The ECB is between baseline and adverse scenario Earlier today, Schnabel said that the ECB should raise rates while Lane that that the ECB is not pre-committing to a particular path past June . Current market expectations are leaning strongly

BOJ Deputy Governor Himino told the Diet the central bank will continue raising its policy rate, while flagging that timing will depend on how Middle East developments affect Japan’s economy and prices. Summary: Himino confirmed the BOJ intends to continue raising its policy rate and adjusting the degree of monetary accommodation in line with economic

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced it had detected and shot down an MQ-9 drone. The IRGC said in a statement that it has the right to respond to any US ceasefire breach. The drone shootdown followed a maritime clash tonight. US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that American forces sank two IRGC mine-laying speedboats

The Dow and the S&P indices are all opening above record closing levels. The Nasdaq is still below the high closing level. The Dow closed at a record level on Friday. Anything positive today is a new record. It is trading at 50759. The high reached 50765.08. The S&P high closing level was at 7501.25.

According to Iran’s Fars news agency, the unfreezing of billions of dollars in Iranian assets has emerged as the final obstacle to securing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at ending recent hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This issue is currently being ironed out through Qatari mediation. The fact that the debate has

There is no change to the assessment from April (which was also the same as in March), as the government notes that “the Japanese economy is recovering moderately, while attention should be given to the effects caused from the situation in the Middle East”. As a reminder, this assessment was changed from February which at

UK CBI Distributive Trades -46 vs -50 expected Prior -68 Full report here The agency noted: “retail selling prices grew in the year to May at the slowest rate in over a year and are set to grow at a similar pace in June. Sales volumes in the retail sector fell short of seasonal norms

Fox News citing a U.S. CENTCOM spokesperson, US forces: conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran Monday hit targets including missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines will use restraint during ongoing ceasefire This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Gold and silver fell in Asian trade as markets interpreted simultaneous US strikes on Iran and active peace talks in Doha as a deal nearing conclusion rather than a conflict at risk of widening. Summary: Gold and silver prices declined in Asian trading Optimism over a US-Iran peace agreement outweighed the impact of continued military

With much of the trading world on holiday Monday it looks like that can continue. A light data and event agenda here in the time zone today. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Should see lower oil prices once the strait opens. Stocks are celebrating the gains in productivity Consumers will feel falling oil prices “right away” The price of gas has to come down. The AAA price of gas is currently at $4.49 down modestly from most recent highs near $4.54. A month ago it was at

The BOC Vincent is speaking and says: The more the economy faces shocks accompanied by structural change, the less clear-cut our monetary policy decisions will be Structural changes in labor markets are making the Bank of Canada’s job more complicated One of our main challenges is accurately distinguishing structural changes from cyclical fluctuations Monetary policy

Prior month -0.20 revised to -0.15 Details from the Chicago Fed: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago CFNAI rose to +0.14 in April from -0.15 in March, signaling an improvement in overall U.S. economic activity. The 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) edged up to +0.03 from +0.02. The CFNAI Diffusion Index increased to +0.06 from +0.03, pointing

The war continues to rage on but it looks like we’re on the cusp of some form of agreement or memorandum of understanding (MOU) being signed off between both sides. While on the surface it is billed as “a deal to end the conflict”, let’s be reminded of what the stakes are here. This framework

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar came under renewed pressure yesterday on heightened hopes for a US-Iran deal. The latest developments have certainly been more positive with Qatari mediation reportedly having produced a mutual understanding on Iran’s frozen financial assets and Trump’s retreating on the nuclear material question. In fact, having previously insisted that Iran’s

Japan’s net external assets rose 4.4% to a record 561.75 trillion yen in 2025, but the country fell to third in global creditor rankings as China overtook it, per Finance Ministry data. Summary: Source: Japanese Finance Ministry, IMF-based data Japan’s net external assets rose 4.4% year-on-year to 561.75 trillion yen ($3.53 trillion) in 2025, a

Full interview here ECB Chief Economist, Philip Lane said in an interview with Nikkei Asia that the conflict in the Middle East has worsened the euro area’s macroeconomic outlook, introducing heightened uncertainty. Elevated energy prices are dragging down consumption and investment, potentially leading to prolonged economic weakness. While gas prices remain relatively stable due to

There are just a couple to take note of expiries to take note of for today, as highlighted in bold below. They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 and 1.1650 levels. Much like yesterday, the expiries today are likely to also serve as points of interest to keep price action more locked in. That

Crude oil futures are under sharp pressure today, with Light Crude Oil Futures trading near $91.79, down about 4.98%. The move matters not only for oil traders, but also for consumers watching gasoline prices, because sustained weakness in crude can eventually filter into wholesale fuel and retail pump prices. The current read from the investingLive.com

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar came under renewed pressure yesterday on heightened hopes for a US-Iran deal. The latest developments have certainly been more positive with Qatari mediation reportedly having produced a mutual understanding on Iran’s frozen financial assets and Trump’s retreating on the nuclear material question. In fact, having previously insisted that Iran’s

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Injects 249bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US Secretary of State Rubio said the Strait of Hormuz will be open “one way or another” as Iran deal language negotiations in Qatar could take a few more days to finalise. Summary: Rubio confirmed talks took place in Qatar on Monday, describing the exchanges as focused on the specific language of an initial framework

Sri Lanka raised its overnight policy rate by 100 basis points to 8.75% on Tuesday, citing surging oil prices from Middle East tensions that pushed April inflation to 5.4% and weakened the rupee. Summary: Sources: Central Bank of Sri Lanka statement; Reuters poll The Central Bank of Sri Lanka raised its overnight policy rate by

US forces carried out self-defense strikes on missile sites and Iranian boats in southern Iran on Monday after an IRGC vessel targeted a US ship, with explosions reported across Hormuz coastal cities. Summary: Loud explosions were reported in the Iranian coastal cities of Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Jask, all bordering the Strait of Hormuz, with

All is not quiet in Iran, loud explosions reported via multiple media sources. Cause unknown. Markets are focused on the good news out of negotiations right now. Nevertheless, conflict continues. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US and Iran plan to open the Strait of Hormuz in about 30 days Crude oil extends lower and stalls the fall at a trend line target Meanwhile.. Israel and Lebanon hostilities may be moving to a reescalation Al Arabiya: Iran is demanding highly enriched uranium be transferred to China Iran top negotiator, foreign minister

More chatter in a fluid situation: Plan is to open the Strait of the Hormuz in around 30 days. Mines would be cleared No tolls on ships going through Ceasefire would be extended for 60 days. The nuclear part of the deal and the rescinding of sanctions are more challeging items that would need to

The AUDUSD has moved sharply higher as improving risk sentiment and hopes for diplomatic progress in the Middle East have helped fuel broader risk-on flows across the currency market. Commodity-linked currencies like the Australian dollar have benefited from the shift in sentiment, with traders moving away from safe-haven positioning and back toward higher-growth and higher-beta

Al Arabiya is reporting, citing “high-ranking sources,” that Iran is demanding its highly enriched uranium be transferred to China as part of ongoing negotiations. The report adds that Iran is willing to remove the highly enriched uranium from its own territory, which on the surface could be presented as a step toward de-escalation and compromise.

The start of the new week is seeing a more risk-on tilt in markets, as traders and investors are picking up on a more optimistic tone between US and Iran since the weekend. In particular, there was a New York Times report saying that Iran agreed to give up enriched uranium in an imminent deal

Crude oil moved sharply lower today on hopes for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Iran — or at least progress toward a framework for peace through a Memorandum of Agreement. The selloff pushed the price down to a low of $90.32, where buyers stepped in near an upward-sloping trend line connecting the late-February

While the US and Iran continue to pursue diplomatic negotiations, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Lebanon remains a major threat to any broader peace effort in the region. Reports continue to surface that forces in Lebanon are targeting Israel Defense Forces (IDF) positions, increasing tensions along the northern border. In response, Israel is reportedly

The start of the week is filled with murmurs about a US-Iran deal and some form of agreement. However, what exactly does that entail and what is it really all about? Or better yet, what exactly is it going to lead to? Market players are optimistic in wanting to hear good news but the reality

The USDCAD moved sharply lower through April but has turned back to the upside in May. The rebound this month pushed the pair above two key technical levels — the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the March 31 high at 1.38068 and the 200-day moving average at 1.3813. However, buyers have so far struggled

Monday starts off quietly, with no major scheduled economic events for the FX market. Many countries in Europe and the U.K. will have a bank holiday while the U.S. will observe Memorial Day. On Tuesday, Japan will release the Bank of Japan core CPI y/y, while the U.S. will get the CB consumer confidence index.

In the likes of Germany, France, Switzerland, and Austria, there will be a public holiday in observance of Whit Monday (general naming convention). However, the Euronext and Xetra bourses/platforms will be open for trading although the Swiss stock exchange will be closed. So even with some markets being open, don’t expect much liquidity to feed

The headlines are stating that Iran’s top negotiator, also parliament speaker, Ghalibaf and foreign minister Araghchi are in Doha to meet with Qatar’s prime minister over a potential deal to end the conflict. Again, I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that “potential deal to end the conflict” doesn’t exactly mean a final

The USDCHF extended to the downside today after finally breaking below the key 100-day moving average at 0.78393, a level that had helped hold support on Friday. Once below, downside momentum accelerated and pushed the pair down toward the May 14 swing low at 0.7807, where buyers stepped back in and stalled the fall. The

Adam Button Brings 4 Practical Trading Sessions to the Finance Magnates Africa Summit Most traders spend years trying to improve entries, indicators, and strategies. Fewer spend time asking harder questions: Why am I taking this trade?What actually moves markets?How do experienced traders deal with losses, mistakes, and uncertainty?What keeps conviction alive when markets move against

Huawei says it expects to design chips with transistor density equivalent to 1.4nm processes by 2031 using a new scaling principle that sidesteps the need for advanced lithography tools restricted by US sanctions. Summary: Source: Huawei statement and keynote address at the 2026 IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and Systems, Shanghai Huawei unveiled the Tau

The USD is lower as the US wakes to a holiday and they honor all those who have died on the battlefields, and the UK barbecues get heated up in observance of the May Bank Holiday. With no escalation of the war in Iran and baby steps toward a diplomatic solution for now, hope vs

One of the preconditions for a deal or framework agreement, however you want to put it, is that the US wants Iran to loosen restrictions over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite US president Trump’s claims that the US is in control of the strait, we all know that the truth of the situation

The very large crude carrier cleared the Gulf of Oman into the Arabian Sea with around 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude bound for China. Most tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf following Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February. Earlier: The outline of a deal exists signing still days

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 and 1.1635 levels. They don’t tie much to any technical significance but the ones at 1.1635 may just act as a bit of a magnet for price action in

To implement support to curb household utility, gas bills from July to September Will allocate ¥500 billion from reserves for related subsidies Will compile extra budget of more than ¥3 trillion To create new budget reserves to address impact of higher energy costs caused by Middle East conflict Will issue new deficit financing bonds to

Litecoin doesn’t get the same room noise as Bitcoin. It doesn’t have Ethereum’s developer drama, Solana’s speed narrative, or the meme-cycle energy that keeps newer tokens popping up on trading desks for a week and disappearing the next. And yet, LTC keeps showing up. It’s still listed almost everywhere. It still trades with real liquidity.

Huawei targets 1.4nm chip density by 2031 with new design law to beat US sanctions Rupee may be undervalued after recent slide, RBI governor Malhotra says New Fed chair Warsh faces hawkish FOMC as rate cut hopes fade on Iran war PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8318 (vs. estimate at 6.7880)

Bitcoin price analysis today: Bulls defend over the weekend, but BTC still needs acceptance above 77,380 Last updated: Monday, 25 May 2026, 06:49 CEST, Berlin time Most marketa are closed but crypto is always open. Bitcoin starts the new week in a cautiously constructive position. After last week’s IBIT options flow ended with a defensive

ECB president Christine Lagarde says the bank’s March inflation forecast of 2.6% for 2025 will probably be revised upward when policymakers meet in June, confirming signals from other council members. Earlier: ECB’s Kocher warns June rate hike unavoidable if Hormuz stays shut ECB policymaker Demarco says that the ECB will probably need to hike in

Most NZIER shadow board members back holding New Zealand’s OCR at 2.25% in May (statement due at pm New Zealand time on May 27), citing weak growth and Iran war uncertainty, though all agree rates must rise over the coming year. Summary: Source: NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board The majority favour holding the OCR at

Nothing on the calendar today, and plenty of holidays: locally, Hong Kong is out US UK and some European countires Hong Kong’s absence will thin out liquidity a little. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As the week comes to a close, US stocks are giving back some of their earlier gains. The major indices remain higher on the day, with the Dow up 0.74%, the S&P up 0.46%, and the Nasdaq higher by 0.23%, but all are well off their session highs as traders react to the latest geopolitical

Stocks remain higher but off highs as hope fades ahead of the weekend for peace Sky News Arabia: Negotiations in Tehran have reached an agreement on nuclear issue Bakers Hughes total rig count 758 in the current week, Up 5 for the week WSJ: Critical Stage in Iran negotiations: Mediators rush to prevent military action

The GBPUSD remains trapped in a very narrow trading range today, with the high reaching 1.3438 and the low extending to 1.3414 — a range of just 24 pips. That relatively subdued price action reflects a market that is waiting for the next catalyst to provide direction and momentum. Much of the trading today has

Baker Hughes rig count Oil rig count =10 to 425 Natural Gas Rig cound -3 to 125 Total rig count for the week +7 to 558 The price of crude oil is trading at $96.35 which is near unchanged on the day. The price remains below the 100 and 200 hour MA which is more

Thank you Pres. Trump Intend to fill roll with energy and purpose Look to faithful to the mission These years can bring unmatched prosperity, that will raise living standards. INflation can be lower, growth strong. I will lead a reform oriented Fed Will learn from past mistakes and successes. I will strive every day to

The WSJ are reporting that negotiations over Iran are at a critical stage, with mediators urgently trying to secure at least a temporary framework agreement to prevent renewed U.S. and Israeli military action. The core dispute centers on how quickly Iran must make nuclear concessions in exchange for sanctions relief and an end to hostilities.

Although Canada’s inflation and retail sales data came in stronger than expected, the broader USD buying bias — along with retail sales details that were not as strong beneath the surface (with core sales slipping marginally) — helped push the Canadian dollar lower and the USDCAD higher. Technically, on the hourly chart, the USDCAD has

A short and concise tweet by Trump himself: “NEW STOCK MARKET RECORD!” The Dow certainly looks up for it with futures pointing up by 0.3% and yesterday’s close being 0.4% lower than the record high set in February. As for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, there is more work to do even if futures are

Reuters is reporting: Qatar is sending a negotiating team to Tehran to help secure a end of war deal Pakistan Army chief warns that the visit to Tehran does not mean a deal is within reach. The price of crude oil has moved to a low of $95.46. The current price is trading at $96.10.

Sky News Arabia is reporting: Negotiations in Tehran have reached an understanding on broad outlines regarding the nuclear issue. Delivery of Uranium would be linked to lifting the sanctions and would be gradual. Focused on an understanding regarding the Strait of Hormuz which is still in negotiations. Iran still wants American guarantees for any agreement

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Fed’s Waller is speaking and his comments are more hawkish Do not expect to support a change in the policy rate in the near term; outcome will depend heavily on the length of the Iran conflict Labor market is in balance and no longer the chief concern in determining the path of policy Should remove

ISNA, the Islamic Students News Agency, is a semi-official Iranian news agency, considered a credible, if state-adjacent, outlet for government-linked reporting: Talks between Iran and the United States are continuing through Pakistani intermediaries, with the exchanges focused on laying the groundwork for a potential deal. Also, Pakistan’s interior minister will remain in Tehran on Friday

A simple investingLiveQ&A for traders and investors The Federal Reserve is not only important because it changes interest rates. It is also important because it tells markets how it is thinking. That is why the coming summer matters. The key story may not be an immediate rate cut or rate hike. It may be a

President Trump swears in Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair in a White House ceremony: I expect Kevin Warsh to go down as one of the very best Fed Chairman. No one is better to lead the Fed, than Kevin Warsh. Has the deepest respect for the institution The Fed is the pillar of

Retail sales -1.3% vs -0.6% m/m expected Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.6% Retail sales 0.0% vs +1.3% y/y expected Prior +1.7%; revised to +1.4% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.4% vs -0.3% m/m expected Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.1% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.1% vs +1.5% y/y expected Prior +1.7%; revised to +1.5% Well,

Prior was 48.2 Details: Conditions 45.8 vs 48.0 prelim Prior 47.8 Expectations 44.1 vs 48.5 prelim Prior 48.5 1-year inflation 4.8% vs 4.6% prelim (Prior was 4.5%) 5-year inflation 3.9% vs 3.4% prelim (Prior was 3.4%) UMich notes: “Consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month as supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue

Among the 35 vessels claimed to have passed through the strait in the past 24 hours, it includes oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels. That at least according to the Iran state media. While the headline may seem positive, just be wary that it must not be taken at face value. Earlier in

The price of WTI crude oil futures is settling at $96.35, up $1.91 or 1.94% on the day. We got a rally in the morning on reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader forbid uranium removal as traders expected the US-Iran stalemate to persist. We then got an Iranian official denying these reports which sent oil prices

A Reuters poll shows 28 of 29 economists expect the RBNZ to hold rates at 2.25% on May 27, but a slim majority now see at least one hike by end-September as Iran war inflation risks build. Summary: Source: Reuters poll of 29 economists, conducted May 18-22 28 of 29 economists expect the RBNZ to

The US stocks are pushing higher to start the final day of the week. Hopes for progress toward peace dominate early action but the news is fluid. Sec of State Rubio now says: On an Iran deal we are not there yet Says that there has been some progress, but would not exaggerate it. Looking

The EURUSD attempted to move higher during the North American session, with the rally extending toward the 100-hour moving average, but sellers once again leaned against that key technical level and stalled the advance. As the session progressed, US yields moved back to the upside after inflation expectations in the University of Michigan sentiment survey

US stock and bond markets close Monday for Memorial Day, with bond markets also shutting early Friday at 2:00 p.m. ET. Futures operate on modified CME and Cboe schedules through the holiday. Summary: US stock markets close on Monday May 25 for Memorial Day, with regular trading hours of 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET

If shorter run expectations go up, that’s alarming and the Fed might have to take steps There is no way the Fed can go back to the small balance sheet of 2008 The Fed wants to run an ample reserves type system Does not want to go to a scarce reserve system Has not spoken

📈 Technology Sector: A Notable Surge The technology sector has shown a remarkable upswing today. Semiconductors are leading the charge with AMD gaining a robust 4.25% and TXN climbing by 3.94%. INTC is also performing solidly, up by 2.73%. This surge indicates renewed investor confidence or market optimism towards tech stocks. However, NVDA is down

The ECB will probably need to hike in June The ECB must show commitment to 2% target to stay credible Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored There’s not much evidence of indirect inflation effects ECB’s meeting-by-meeting approach is still valid Currently I don’t see need to go too far on rates 2026 inflation outlook likely

Headlines: US-Iran developments still the main focus ahead of the weekend Pakistan interior minister said to have met with Iran foreign minister again – report Iran state media claims 35 vessels passed through Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours USD/JPY continues to edge higher as yen bias stays bearish amid negative macro backdrop

Prior month 0.7% Retail sales 0.9% vs 0.6% estimate Retail sales ex autos 1.4% vs 0.9% estimate Other details: Retail sales rose 0.9% in March to $72.7 billion. Four of nine subsectors posted gains, led by gasoline stations and fuel vendors. Core Retail Sales: Core retail sales (excluding gasoline stations/fuel vendors and motor vehicle/parts dealers)

Agreed that BOJ and government will continue to coordinate closely Explained monetary policy thinking to Takaichi Did not discuss any specifics (when asked about market prospects of June rate hike) Takaichi said she hoped for BOJ to conduct monetary policy appropriately Adding that she hoped for it to take into account government steps to cushion

Prior was 2.4% (revised to +2.8%) PPI Y/Y +11.4% vs +7.8% prior (revised to +8.4%) Raw materials price index M/M +2.6% vs +12.0% prior (revised to +11.9%) Raw material price index Y/Y +31.6% vs +23.6% prior (revised to +23.4%) StatCan notes: “the PPI rose 2.0% in April, the fourth consecutive monthly increase for the index.

China’s NDRC said it never told Chinese tech firms they could not accept US investment, adding that foreign capital must comply with Chinese law and must not harm national security. Summary: Source: China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), via newswire The NDRC, China’s top economic planning body responsible for setting national investment and development

The USD is higher and cautious to start the US session. The US/Iran war remains a chief focus. Today brought cautious but fragile signals of movement in US-Iran negotiations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged “slight progress” in talks to end the war, though he was careful not to overstate how much. Pakistan’s Army Chief

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 153bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. Hong Kong Monetary Authority says the PBoC will issue CNY-denominated bills in Hong Kong This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Exxon Mobil is in talks to return to Venezuelan oil production nearly two decades after being pushed out, with a deal potentially covering six fields and coming together within weks. Summary: Source: The New York Times (gated), citing anonymous sources Exxon is pursuing negotiations that could restore its oil production presence in Venezuela, roughly two

Full report here Lagarde declined to provide specific guidance regarding the ECB’s upcoming June 11 meeting. She emphasized that the bank will maintain a “data-dependent” and “meeting-by-meeting” approach to ensure inflation returns to its 2% target. She highlighted the energy price shock that is simultaneously driving up inflation and slowing economic growth. While long-term inflation

There have been plenty of mixed headlines in the past 24 hours. So, let’s do our best to catch up and make sense of what is happening in the Middle East conflict. First, there was that report yesterday that Iran’s supreme leader had issued a directive calling for near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile to not leave the

New Zealand Retail Sales Q1 2026 +0.9% q/q expected +0.6%, prior +0.9% +4.5% y/y prior + 4.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has confirmed a non-binding October referendum asking residents whether the province should begin the legal process toward a possible independence vote. Summary: Source: Reuters, citing Premier Danielle Smith’s televised address and provincial legislative committee recommendations Alberta Premier Danielle Smith confirmed the province will hold a non-binding referendum in October on whether

This just reconfirms what was already aired by the IRNA. The meet up again is “to review proposals for resolving the ongoing dispute with the US”. For some context, this was Mohsin Naqvi’s second trip to Tehran in less than a week as Pakistan continues to step up mediation efforts in trying to get something

Q1 GDP +0.3% vs +0.3% q/q prelim Prior +0.3% The estimate here is very much old news as the focus turns to how the German economy is going to navigate the second and third quarters instead. That amid rising cost pressures and stagflation risks mounting in general. The PMI data for May here yesterday already

There are just a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 and 1.1630 levels. As things stand, the currency pair – like the others – remain very much tied to dollar and broader market sentiment. US-Iran headlines remain the

The Australian dollar is under pressure after weak Chinese and domestic labour data, with analysts warning the RBA rate-hiking cycle may be over, removing a key support for the currency. Summary: Source: Commerzbank The AUD pulled back from a four-year high of 0.726 against the USD reached last Wednesday Soft Chinese economic data at the

Morgan Stanley says Japan’s reflation story remains structurally intact despite near-term energy shock headwinds, forecasting a dip in nominal GDP this year before a rebound above 4% in 2026. Summary: Japan’s nominal GDP growth is expected to turn slightly negative this year due to terms-of-trade losses from the energy shock, before recovering to above 4%

ETHUSD remains vulnerable below 2,155-2,160 as ETF outflows weigh Ethereum is trying to stabilize near 2,130, but today’s ETHUSD structure still favors a cautious, bearish-neutral read while price remains below 2,155-2,160. That area is the key short-term repair gate for Ethereum traders. A sustained reclaim would reduce downside pressure, but failure below it keeps rallies

GfK consumer sentiment -29.8 vs -34.0 expected Prior -33.3; revised to -33.1 German consumer sentiment is seen recovering slightly heading into June, amid a rebound in households’ income expectations. The reading there shows an improvement to -13.0, after recording a -24.4 estimate for May last month. That being said, the index for willingness to buy

RBNZ set to hold at 2.25% but majority now see hikes coming by end-September ING expects June BOJ rate hike despite softer than forecast Japan CPI Beijing’s state planner softens tone on foreign investment in Chinese technology sector Oil seen capped near $100 as Iran war demand destruction offsets supply loss Alberta to hold October

Markets reversed earlier gains as Iran’s President said on state TV that they won’t back down in talks. The momentum then picked up when a “high-level source” told Al-Arabiya that the Pakistani Army Chief will not head to Tehran tonight. The Pakistani were supposed to head to Iran only when the reach of an agreement

I previewed the Japan inflation data here: A third consecutive month of core CPI below the BOJ’s 2% target would reinforce the case for patience on rate hikes, Also on the agenda is an ECB speaker, Philip Lane given the opening address at 2026 Asian Monetary Policy Forum (AMPF) in Singapore “Europe and the World

A Bloomberg Intelligence survey (gated) of 126 energy market participants finds most expect Brent to average $81-$100 over the next year, with demand destruction seen as the primary offset to Iran war supply losses. Summary: Source: Bloomberg Intelligence survey, 126 respondents, energy market participants and asset managers A majority expect Brent to average $81 to

The RBI is expected to transfer a record 3.05 trillion rupees to the Indian government, but economists polled by Reuters say the windfall will not prevent New Delhi from missing its fiscal deficit target. Yesterday: Intervention by the Reserve Bank of India sends the rupee sharply higher. Summary: Source: Reuters poll of 25 economists, conducted

ING says Japan’s softer-than-expected April CPI, driven by government subsidies and a high food base, will not prevent a Bank of Japan rate hike in June, with pipeline prices pointing to a rebound. Summary: Source: ING analyst note on Japan April CPI Japan’s headline CPI slowed to 1.4% year-on-year in April, below the 1.6% market

Japan’s core CPI rose just 1.4% in April, a four-year low driven by government subsidies, but analysts warn the Iran war will push inflation sharply higher in coming months Summary: Japan’s core CPI, excluding fresh food, rose 1.4% year-on-year in April, the slowest pace since March 2022, against a market forecast of 1.7% and a

Japan April inflation data: Headline CPI (Y/Y) 1.4% expected 1.6%, prior 1.5% CPI Excluding Fresh Food (core CPI) 1.4% expected 1.7%, prior 1.8% CPI Excluding Fresh Food, Energy (core-core CPI) (Y/Y) 1.9% expected 2.2%, prior 2.4% I’ll have more to come on this separately, details and implications etc. The TL;DR is going to be this

UK consumer confidence beat forecasts in May at -23, while Irish sentiment rebounded sharply from a 40-month low, though both surveys point to households still firmly on the defensive. Summary: Sources: GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (UK); Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (Ireland) – collated by Reuters. The UK GfK consumer confidence index rose to -23

Take encouragement from recent job growth, but not hard to imagine possible job losses due to AI Nervous about the tails on both sides of the mandate Employers outside of software are not yet reducing headcount due to AI Longer-term bond-market-based inflation expectations do not look like it has broken out Not leaning towards overly

Iran’s ILNA news agency posted on their Telegram channel an Al-Arabiya TV claim about US and Iran reaching an agreement on a draft mediated by Pakistan. They say it’s expected to be announced in the next few hours. (h/t @LiveSquawk on X for catching this early) The draft includes: Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire on all

Australia’s unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.5% in April from 4.3%, its highest since November 2021, as employment fell by 18,600 against expectations of a 17,500 gain, complicating the RBA’s rate path. Summary: Employment fell by 18,600 in April against an expectation of a 17,500 gain and a prior reading of 17,900 added jobs Full-time

Global oil stockpiles are falling at a record 8.7 million barrels per day in May as Hormuz flows sit at just 5% of normal levels, Goldman Sachs said, with Brent crude trading near $106, up over 70% this year Summary: Global visible crude and fuel stockpiles have fallen by 8.7 million barrels per day so

Iran and Oman are actively discussing a permanent security mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is pushing to institutionalize and normalize a transit fee or toll on commercial shipping vessels navigating the narrow waterway. According to an Iranian diplomatic envoy, the proposed system is designed to secure the long-term positioning of Iran and Oman

New Zealand Balance of Trade (Apr) 1.920B expected, 0.842B, prior 0.698B Imports 6.70B prior 7.25B Exports 8.62B prior 7.94B Big beat on the trade balance — more than double the forecast, with exports up and imports down. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was +26.7 Details: New orders -1.7 vs 33.0 prior Shipments 4.9 vs 34.0 prior Unfilled orders -2.5 vs -10.2 prior Delivery times -10.4 vs 1.7 prior Inventories 6.6 vs -1.9 prior Prices paid 47.9 vs 59.3 prior Prices received 26.3 vs 33.5 prior Number of employees -2.8 vs -5.1 prior Average employee workweek 1.2

Al Jazeera report, Ali Hashem, posted this on X which triggered downside in oil, USD and upside in stocks: “A senior Iranian official denied to me reports that Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei has issued a new order requiring enriched uranium to remain inside Iran, saying they are “propaganda by the enemies of the deal”. The

Current policy is in a good place to respond to ongoing shocks Whether the Fed needs to hike rates depends on how businesses, consumers react to developing conditions Consumers are “not happy” but continue to spend; businesses are so far managing productivity improvements through attrition and not layoffs The policy of looking through supply shocks

We have a pretty significant inflation problem The job market is stable I’m most attuned to the inflation side of the dual mandate Fed’s Goolsbee isn’t a voter this year and he’s been leaning on the hawkish side for quite a while, so his remarks are not surprising at all. The most important thing is

Prior was +10 Composite index +8 vs +10 prior Manufacturing activity continued to increase in the tenth district, while expectations for future activity grew slightly from last month. Raw materials prices remained elevated this month, while growth for finished products rose modestly. According to Cortney Cowley, assistant vice president and Oklahoma City Branch executive “manufacturing

Japan’s core CPI is forecast to ease to 1.7% year-on-year in April, a third straight month below the BOJ’s 2% target, as government energy subsidies and fading food price pressures subdue consumer price rises. Data due Friday in Japan, on Thursday 21 May 2026 2026 at 2330 GMT / 1930 US Eastern time Summary: Nationwide

Prior 51.0 Manufacturing PMI 55.3 vs 53.8 expected Prior 54.5 Composite PMI 51.7 vs 51.8 expected Prior 51.7 Key Findings: Subdued growth in May amid price surge Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The damaging economic impact from the war in the Middle East is becoming increasingly evident in the

The USDCAD is being pulled sharply in both directions as markets react to the latest headlines surrounding the conflict in Iran. The geopolitical uncertainty is driving rapid swings in oil prices, Treasury yields, and stock markets, all of which are feeding directly into volatility for the US dollar and the Canadian dollar. Historically, rising oil

We’re negotiating on Iran, we’ll get it one way or the other We have total control of the Strait of Hormuz I want Hormuz open, free and with no tolls The US will get Iran’s uranium, we will likely destroy it The Iran conflict will end soon There’s nothing new here as he continues to

We’re very upset with NATO allies over Iran response Pakistanis will travel to Iran today Let’s see if we can get a deal with Iran, there are some good signs This shouldn’t come as a surprise as the US has always said that a tolling system wouldn’t be acceptable. That’s also why we’ve been seeing

Why is Intuit stock crashing by over 20% after its earnings last night? At least part of the reason, in my opinion, is AI Intuit stock is plunging after the company lowered its TurboTax revenue outlook, announced a major restructuring, and triggered fresh investor concerns that artificial intelligence could weaken one of its historic advantages:

The news of Iran’s Supreme Leader forbidding uranium removal earlier in the day weighed on risk sentiment sending stocks lower and oil sharply higher. WTI oil has now erased all yesterday’s losses as risks for a more prolonged US-Iran stalemate increase. Yesterday, after the close, we got strong NVDA earnings but the stock failed to

Headlines: Iran supreme leader reportedly says near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile must stay in Iran Euro area economic activity falls at quickest pace in over two years in May German business activity falls for a second consecutive month amid rising cost pressures French economic activity falls markedly in May, steepest decline in five-and-a-half years UK economic activity

The GBPUSD moved sharply higher today as broad-based USD selling gained momentum on hopes for peace in the Middle East, lower oil prices, declining Treasury yields, and stronger US stock prices. The bullish move was also supported by key technical developments throughout the session. Early in the North American session, the pair found willing buyers

Services PMI 46.4 vs 47.7 expected Prior 47.6 Manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs 51.8 expected Prior 52.2 Composite PMI 47.5 vs 48.8 expected Prior 48.6 The fallout from the Middle East crisis intensifies as euro area business activity takes a big knock in May, no thanks to a hit to demand conditions and surging cost pressures.

While the nominal increase does little to alter the actual physical balance of global supply, energy analysts view the decision as a political signal intended to project stability and control over a heavily strained global energy market. The decision to lift production quotas while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed presents a paradox, but

📊 Sector Overview The US stock market presented a tableau of mixed outcomes today, with significant volatility emanating particularly from the technology and consumer defensive sectors. The technology sector, often at the forefront of market movements, experienced a noticeable slump today. Key semiconductor stocks, such as Nvidia (NVDA) at -1.86% and Intel (INTC) at -3.57%,

Prior was 1.502m (revised to 1.507m) Building permits 1.442m vs 1.385m expected Prior 1.363m (revised to Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,465,000. This is 2.8 percent (±11.0 percent) below the revised March estimate of 1,507,000, but is 4.6 percent (±13.9 percent) above the April 2025 rate of

Prior week 211K revised to 212K Initial jobless claim 209Kvs 210K estimate. 4-week moving average 202.50K vs 204.00K last week Continueing claims 1.782M vs 1.785M estimate. Prior week 1.776M vs 1.782M previously reported 4-week MA of continuing claims 1.773M vs revised 1.780 last week (was 1.781M) The largest increases in initial claims for the week

Prior was -20.6 Consumer confidence remains well below its long-term average and below the level observed before the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East. In April 2026, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) recorded a sharp drop in both the EU (-2.9 to 93.5) and the euro area (-3.2 to 93.0). Also the Employment

Services PMI 42.9 vs 46.6 expected Prior 46.5 Manufacturing PMI 48.9 vs 52.2 expected Prior 52.8 Composite PMI 43.5 vs 47.7 expected Prior 47.6 Welp, there goes the floor. The pain is starting to hit now as the fallout from the Middle East conflict intensifies. The headline services print and the composite print are the

Probably correct to expect need for interest rate hikes under BoE’s scenario C in outlook Some tightening has happened relative to where we were in February GDP growth is sluggish, set to remain so Weaker labor market continuing in recent data The “Scenario C” is the most adverse one outlined in the BoE’s Monetary Policy

The ECB is set to raise rates on June 11 but will signal caution on any July follow-up, four sources told Reuters, as analysts at Deutsche Bank forecast quarter-point hikes in June and September taking rates to 2.50%. Summary: Per Reuters reporting citing four ECB sources, and Deutsche Bank research note: The case for a

The USD is mostly higher to start the North American session as it reacts to the US rates/higher oil. The EURUSD is down -0.17%, the USDJPY is up 0.13% (higher USD), the GBPUSD is unchanged. The biggest movers are the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD on risk off flows (down -0.28% and -0.20%). In the video

Nasdaq Futures tradeCompass Today: NQ Bears Hold the Edge Below $29,313 Prediction Score: -3 / +10 Current bias: Mildly bearish while Nasdaq futures remain below the $29,300 to $29,321.50 resistance cluster Key tradeCompass level for today: $29,313 Bullish activation level: $29,427 Key takeaways for Nasdaq futures traders today Nasdaq futures remain mildly bearish below $29,313,

Japan’s April exports rose 14.8% year-on-year, well above the 9.3% forecast, producing a surprise trade surplus of 301.9bn yen, as crude oil import volumes collapsed 64% in their steepest fall since 1980. Earlier: Japan data shows a massive trade surplus beat in April as exports rocket Bank of Japan policy board member Koeda says underlying

Goldman Sachs says global oil stockpiles falling at record pace as Hormuz flows hit 5% Intervention by the Reserve Bank of India sends the rupee sharply higher. South Korea confirms launch of 24-hour dollar-won trading from July 6 in MSCI upgrade push Japan April exports beat forecasts for eighth month as crude oil imports collapse

Iran’s newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority has declared a controlled maritime zone across the Strait of Hormuz, requiring all transit vessels to seek coordination and authorisation before passing through. Summary: Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority announced a controlled maritime zone covering the Strait of Hormuz The zone runs from Kuh-e Mobarak in Iran to

Australia’s flash composite PMI fell to 47.8 in May from 50.4 in April, signalling the second contraction in three months, as new orders dropped at the fastest pace since September 2021, per S&P Global. Summary: S&P Global Flash Australia PMI release, May 2026 The headline composite PMI output index fell to 47.8 in May from

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

South Korea will launch 24-hour dollar-won spot trading from July 6, with a trial period beginning June 29, as part of a broader foreign exchange liberalisation push aimed at securing an MSCI developed market upgrade. Summary: All bullets per South Korea Ministry of Economy and Finance statement, May 2026: Dollar-won spot trading will extend to

Terrible data: – I’ll have more to come on this separately, details etc. ADDED, more here now. Background to this: Preview: Australia April jobs data eyed as AUD rally and RBA rate path hang in balance Earlier data: Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations (May) 5.6% prior 5.9% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Services PMI 47.9 vs 51.7 expected Prior 52.7 Manufacturing PMI 53.7 vs 53.0 expected Prior 53.7 Composite PMI 48.5 vs 51.6 expected Prior 52.6 Ouch. That’s a big miss on the services print as business activity there falls to the lowest in 64 months. That’s leading UK economic activity to contract in May, with the

It don’t matter the context and it certainly don’t matter the veracity of the comment. In this market, it seems that what matters is just the who. And when Trump says something, markets move. In the latest episode, his comment about the US being in the “final stages of talks” with Iran was enough to

Japan’s flash composite PMI eased to 51.1 in May from 52.2 in April, a five-month low, as services activity stalled for the first time in over a year and selling prices rose at the sharpest pace in nearly 19 years of data, per S&P Global. Summary: All bullets per S&P Global Flash Japan PMI release,

Earlier in the day, Iran media reported that Pakistan’s army chief was due in Tehran on Thursday. Adding that this is largely to continue mediating the situation with the visit aimed at continuing “talks and consultations”. That considering the fact that Iran is still reviewing the latest US peace proposal to the conflict. So far,

Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 51.0 expected Prior 51.4 Services PMI 47.8 vs 47.0 expected Prior 46.9 Composite PMI 48.6 vs 48.4 expected Prior 48.4 After the dismal French numbers earlier, this is arguably some little bit of comfort for investors despite German economic activity showing a contraction for a second month running. The Middle East

The CBI monthly manufacturing order book balance for May dropped to -41, following the -38 reading in April. That marks the lowest such estimate since September 2020 amid surging cost pressures. Of note, the gauge of expected selling prices rose to +38 (previously +32) – marking the highest since February 2023. While the UK PMI

Germany’s finance ministry just reported a €41 billion federal budget deficit at the end of April earlier today. For a country that has long been the “frugal superpower” of Europe, the deficit number is quite the red flag for something at this stage of the year. It all continues to point to major economic and

It’s a packed agenda ahead. The data most likely to move marekts is the Australian jobs report. I had a preview here posted yesterday: Preview: Australia April jobs data eyed as AUD rally and RBA rate path hang in balance This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BOJ board member Koeda said underlying inflation is already around 2% and the central bank needs to continue raising rates, warning that Middle East developments may push inflation above target looking ahead. Summary: All bullets per BOJ board member Koeda’s public remarks, 20 May 2026: Underlying inflation is assessed to be already around 2%, with

In the adverse scenario, it may be warranted to raise interest rates for the sake of credibility Don’t see any significant deviation in medium to long-term inflation expectations Wage growth is still moderating The comment in bold pretty much signals their intentions for the June meeting. As mentioned before, the ECB is up against a

Nvidia posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.87, topping estimates of $1.77, as revenue rose to $81.62B. The chipmaker guided Q2 revenue to $91B plus or minus 2%, above the $87.36B consensus. Summary: Adjusted EPS came in at $1.87 versus an estimate of $1.77, per company results Revenue reached $81.62B against a consensus estimate of $79.19B,

SpaceX has filed an S-1 with the SEC for a Nasdaq IPO under ticker SPCX, offering Class A shares with one vote each while Elon Musk retains 85.1% combined voting power through Class B stock at ten votes per share. Summary: SpaceX filed an S-1 registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 100bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Indian rupee has been under sustained selling pressure in recent months, caught between a confluence of external shocks and domestic vulnerabilities that have tested the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance for currency weakness. The dominant driver has been the energy price shock flowing from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israeli

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will announce free bus travel for children aged five to 15 in England during August and tariff cuts on over 100 food products, in a cost of living package worth around £250 million in total. Summary: Per Rachel Reeves’ parliamentary announcement: Children aged five to 15 in England will travel free

South Korea to extend fuel tax break until end-July, Yonhap says Info via Reuters. Yonhap citing the finance ministry. Measure is part of government efforts to allay the burden on drivers from higher fuel prices, it said. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Major US stock indices close sharply higher ahead of Nvidia earnings Nvidia earnings after the close. What to expect. Labour Wes Streeting is likely to abandon bid for PM and support Andy Burnham FOMC Minutes: Many would have preferred to remove easing bias from policy statement US sells $16 billion of 20 year bonds at

South Korea’s Korea Exchange activated a sidecar halt after KOSPI 200 futures surged 5%, pausing program trading for five minutes, as Samsung Electronics rallied following a last-minute wage deal that averted an 18-day strike. Sidecar halt also activate following KOSDAQ 150 rise of 6% Summary: The Korea Exchange triggered a sidecar mechanism after KOSPI 200

Nvidia will announce its fiscal Q1 2027 earnings report after the close today, May 20, with Wall Street expecting earnings of $1.78 per share — up 120% year over year ($0.81) — on revenue of approximately $79.2 billion, representing roughly 79.5% growth compared to the same period last year ($44.06 billion). The company itself has

The major US stock indices all closed sharply higher with the small-cap Russell 2000 leading the way with a gain of 2.56%. The NASDAQ index rose 1.54%, and the S&P index rose 1.08%. The Dow 30 industrial average advanced by 1.31% looking at the Dow 30, Goldman Sachs and Nike led the gainers while Chevron

Japanese Machinery Orders March 2026 -9.4% m/m expected -8.1% prior 13.6% Japanese Machinery Orders 5.9% y/y expected 4.5% prior 24.7% — Japanese Balance of Trade April 301.9bn, a massive beat, and exports blowing past forecast expected -29.7bn prior 667.0bn Japanese Imports 9.7% y/y expected 8.3% prior 10.9% Japanese Exports 14.8% y/y expected 9.3% prior 11.7%

The Times is reporting that Labour Wes Streeting is likely to abandon his bid for PM in favor of Andy Burnham if Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election. There is a feeling that no one can beat Andy if he wins the by-election and launches a push to unseat PM Keir Starmer. Although it is not

As the broader market focus stays on the fallout from the Middle East crisis, it is easy to expect inflation to keep running up on the back of higher energy prices. But as we look to the UK CPI report later, the expectation is for price pressures to ease in April. That at least on

A Reuters article is making the rounds saying that a June rate hike is “nearly sealed” ECB officials see a June rate hike as nearly certain, with persistent high energy costs keeping inflation pressures elevated. The ECB is likely to avoid committing to a July hike, preferring to keep options open and remain data dependent.

Trump convened a national security meeting on Iran war plans Monday evening, hours after announcing a pause in strikes, with Gulf leaders’ concerns over oil facility retaliation cited as a key factor in his decision to hold off. Related: US Senate advances war powers vote to curb Iran strikes without Congress (doesn’t matter) Summary: According

London, Larnaca – HFM is proud to congratulate Arsenal Football Club on being crowned Premier League champions, marking a defining moment for the club, its supporters and everyone connected to the Arsenal family. After 22 years, Arsenal have returned to the summit of English football. This is more than a title win. It is the

The US 10 year yield is down around 10 basis points at 4.57%. The high yield reached 4.687% in trading just yesterday. So there is good news on the dip. The not so good news is that since May 7, the yield moved up from 4.316% to the high yesterday 4.687%, a gain of 37

A slew of BOE officials are speaking including BOE head Bailey is speaking (along with other BOE officials) and says: Financial market tightening gives us some time to assess whether to raise rates. We have a softening picture for growth and labor market. Market futures curves seem fairly benign compared to damage to East gas

Japan’s Reuters Tankan showed manufacturers’ sentiment edging up to plus 8 in May from plus 7, but the outlook index fell to plus 5 for August as Hormuz supply disruptions and auto sector weakness weighed Summary: The following is drawn from the Reuters Tankan poll of 220 major Japanese non-financial firms, conducted 1-15 May: The

The AUDUSD surged sharply higher after headlines crossed that the US and Iran are in the final stages of talks, helping fuel a broader risk-on move and weighing on the US dollar. Among the major currency pairs, the AUDUSD is the strongest performer today, up around 0.76%. The rally pushed the pair to a session

Iran Foreign Minister is saying: Focus is on ending the war and fulfilling Iran’s clear demands. Tehran’s main focus is ending the war on all fronts including Lebanon, releasing frozen assets,and stopping pressing actions and maritime piracy Despite the negative record, Iran is pursuing the path of negotiations with seriousness in good faith, but is

The major US stock indices are set to open higher,. Oil price are down about -$2. Yields are lower by about 2 basis points, which is not much but it is something. Looking at the major indices, the NASDAQ is up 200 points while the S&P is up 28 points in premarket trading Later today,

High yield 5.122% WI level at the time of the auction 5.122% Tail 0.0 basis points Bid to cover 2.55X Directs 22.94% Indirects 67.67% Dealers 9.39% The dealer takedown was less than the 6-month average of 11.1%. The Bid to cover was a little lower than the average at 2.62x but the international demand saved

Anna Paulson, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is speaking soon: 2300 GMT / 1900 US Eastern time Paulson became a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2026 and voted with the majority to hold rates steady at the most recent FOMC meeting on 29 April,

Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key catalyst for the market. Admittedly, the reactions have been somewhat less muted on good news lately. We will be monitoring those reactions. Meanwhile, trumpeters speaking and says Will work on Taiwan problem Will speak to Taiwan’s president. Think it’s good Xi meeting with Putin. On Iran, says that we are

The AUDUSD broke below a key swing area floor between 0.7100 and 0.7113 during yesterday’s trade, extending to a low of 0.7079 before finding support buyers. However, the downside momentum could not be sustained. The pair rebounded back into the former support zone and closed the day within that swing area, signaling that sellers were

The WSJ is reporting that OpenAI is preparing confidential IPO paperwork, setting up what could become one of the biggest and most closely watched tech offerings in years. Reports say the company is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with a possible filing coming within days and a public debut targeted as early as

The USDCAD has been climbing steadily since bottoming on May 1, with buyers consistently stepping in on dips near the rising 100-hour moving average. Earlier in the Asian session today, the pair tested that key technical level once again and rebounded, pushing to its highest level since April 15 before running into sellers and rotating

The price of crude oil has moved to a low of $97 on the news. The current prices trading backup at $98.60. US stocks are higher with the S&P up 70 points or 0.94% while the NASDAQ index is up 340 points or 1.31%. The USD has moved to lower. The price of USDJPY has

PPI +1.2% vs +1.0% m/m expected Prior +2.5% German producer prices moved up more than estimated in April, with the year-on-year estimate also reflecting a strong 1.7% increase. On the annual estimate, that is the highest since May 2023. Producer prices continue to ramp up amid higher energy prices, also showing some impact in spreading

The EU has struck a provisional agreement to implement its Turnberry trade deal with the US, paving the way for duty cuts on American goods before Trump’s July 4 deadline and averting the threat of higher US tariffs on European products. Summary: The European Parliament and the Council of the EU reached a provisional agreement

The Iranian Foreign Minister is speaking and says: The negotiations are ongoing through Pakistan intermediary On uranium transfer, says “why should Iran transfer its enriched uranium to another country? “ Says that no one was worried about our nuclear program Everyone knows that our nuclear program is 100% peaceful. Says they do not want demands,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver followed gold lower yesterday and dropped into new lows as Treasury yields extended their gains, with the 30-year reaching the highest level since 2007. Inflation worries and Fed rate hike risks intensified recently as markets started to grow impatient amid the prolonged US-Iran stalemate and Strait of Hormuz closure. Traders are now

Looking at the weekly EIA oil inventory data showed a large drawdown of crude oil stocks. Gasoline toys fall. Distillates rise modestly: Crude oil inventories -7.863M versus estimate drawdown of -2.942M Distillates, build of 0.372M vs expected drawdown of -1.072M Gasoline drawdown -1.548M vs estimate drawdown of -2.096M Cushing drawdown of -1.604M vs a drawdown

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The USD is mixed/little changed with the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD all trading within 0.05% of unchanged on the day. The UK inflation data came in lower than expections helped by one off and base effects. The EU final CPI came in as expected. In the video above, I take a look at the

Sector Overview The US stock market is exhibiting a bullish trend today, powered predominantly by a strong rebound in the semiconductor sector. Notable companies like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD are leading the charge with impressive gains of 1.71% and 7.53% respectively. The upbeat performance in semiconductors comes after a series of challenging sessions, suggesting renewed

Major US stock indices moved lower today as investors continued to weigh rising global yields, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, and concerns that higher energy prices could keep inflation pressures elevated. The declines were led by technology and small-cap stocks, with the NASDAQ index falling -0.84% and the Russell 2000 dropping -1.01%. The broader

It’s still early in the day and even if we are seeing risk trades keep steadier, the overall market mood is more tepid at best. Major indices in Europe are starting the day with just minor losses while S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.2%. It’s not hinting at much though, especially with bond markets

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 50bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Major US stock indices close lower WSJ: Little progress in US/Iran talks VP Vance: Made a lot of progress on Iran Al Hadath: Trump has made decision to attack Iran Japan’s Finance Katayam: Ready to take decisive action on forex Trump: We may have to give Iran another hit. I am not sure NATO warns

Headlines: A steadier mood as we get into European trading, still no US-Iran breakthrough yet EUR/USD continues its run lower amid increasing Fed hike bets, surging Treasury yields Gold extends the losses as Fed rate hike risks increase amid prolonged US-Iran stalemate ECB policymaker Wunsch warns we are at the beginning of an inflation problem

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Way to kick someone when they’re down. As USD/JPY makes its way back up and threatens to take a look at the 160 level again, Goldman Sachs is out with a note arguing that intervention from Japan’s ministry of finance alone will not be enough to keep a lid on the currency pair. The firm

Brent fell 0.4% and WTI slipped 0.3% after Trump claimed the Iran war will end very quickly, though investors remain cautious as US crude stocks fell for a fifth straight week. Summary: Brent crude fell 45 cents, or 0.4%, to $110.83 a barrel in early trade, while WTI dropped 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $103.88,

We are at the beginning of an inflation problem The ECB will have to react at some point ECB’s Wunsch warns that we are at the beginning of an inflation problem and the prolonged geopolitical crisis raises the risk that higher costs will feed into inflation expectations and core inflation. Wunsch has been in the

Philadelphia Fed President Paulson said current policy is appropriate and putting downward pressure on inflation, but called it healthy that markets are now pricing in scenarios of an extended hold or further rate hikes. Summary: The following is drawn from Paulson’s prepared remarks to an Atlanta Fed conference on Tuesday: Paulson said current monetary policy

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW After a brief consolidation on Monday, gold fell into new lows yesterday. The main drivers in the past few days have been Treasury yields which rose above March’s highs, with the 30-year reaching the highest level since 2007. Inflation worries and Fed rate hike risks intensified recently as markets started to grow impatient

China is set to cancel mandatory loan targets for small companies as part of a broader policy shift toward market-driven credit allocation, according to Shanghai Securities News. Summary: According to Shanghai Securities News, a state-backed Chinese financial daily: China plans to cancel mandatory loan targets for small and medium-sized enterprises, marking a significant shift in

Too soon to say if ECB needs to act in June Need to pay close attention to inflation The Bank of France nominee Emmanuel Moulin, who is going to replace Francois Villeroy as the next ECB governor, said that it’s still too early to commit to any specific action at the upcoming June meeting. He

The AUDUSD extended lower on Monday, continuing the downside momentum that began late last week on Thursday and Friday. However, as the pair pushed lower, buyers started to lean against a key swing area between 0.7100 and 0.7113, helping to slow the decline and stabilize the price action in early trading. That support zone once

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could just help to lock price action for a bit in European trading, provided the risk mood keeps more tepid. As things

Philadelphia Fed’s Paulson said risks to both inflation and the outlook are super-elevated, and that a rate hike could be considered if growth moves above potential or further inflation risks emerge. Earlier: Paulson says current Fed policy appropriate but markets right to price in hikes Summary: The following is drawn from Paulson’s further remarks, Q&A,

Citi forecasts Brent crude will reach $120 per barrel near term, warning oil markets are under-pricing prolonged supply disruption risk, with a bull case of $150 if Hormuz reopens only gradually in Q3. Summary: From a Citi note published Tuesday: Citi forecasts Brent crude will reach $120 per barrel in the near term, arguing that

Samsung Electronics’ South Korean union will proceed with a strike on Thursday after mediation talks collapsed, with the union blaming delays in management decision-making for the breakdown. South Korea shares were already under pressure, perhaps reading the inevitable. Note and KOSPI chart down the bottom of this post. Summary: The following is drawn from Yonhap

CPI +2.8% vs +3.0% y/y expected Prior +3.3% CPI +0.7% vs +0.9% m/m expected Prior +0.7% Core CPI +2.5% vs +2.6% y/y expected Prior +3.1% Core CPI +0.7% vs +0.8% m/m expected Prior +0.4% A note of this report from earlier: There will be more to the UK CPI report than what meets the eye

I posted on this earlier, ICYMI: The People’s Bank of China is due to set its Loan Prime Rate on Wednesday, with markets widely expecting both the one-year and five-year tenors to remain unchanged for a twelfth consecutive month. The one-year LPR, the benchmark for most corporate and household lending, has been held at 3.0%

Australia’s April jobs data, due Thursday, is expected to show employment rising around 10k-15k with unemployment steady at 4.3%, though Easter distortions and Middle East risks cloud the outlook. Summary: The following draws on notes from Westpac, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and a Reuters market analysis: Both Westpac and CBA expect a softer April employment

The US Senate voted 50-47 to advance a war powers measure that would require Congressional approval before further strikes on Iran, with four Republican senators breaking ranks to support the motion. Summary: The US Senate voted 50-47 to advance a War Powers Resolution that would end US military strikes on Iran unless explicitly approved by

The Bank of Japan may slow or pause its bond purchase tapering at the June policy meeting, analysts say, as rising yields and market volatility complicate its balance sheet normalisation plans. Related: Japan’s Finance Katayam: Ready to take decisive action on forex Summary: According to Reuters, citing analysts and sources familiar with BOJ thinking: The

ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Nagel said the ECB may have to act at its June meeting as the Iran energy shock proves persistent and the probability of broader inflation spreading continues to rise. Related: ECB’s Kocher warns June rate hike unavoidable if Hormuz stays shut Summary: The following is drawn from Nagel’s

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Huge draw … Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -3.4 mn barrels Distillates -1.3 mn bbls Gasoline -2.1 mn — Crude markets navigated a choppy session before settling broadly flat on Tuesday, with two late Wall Street Journal reports pulling benchmarks back toward their highs into the close. The more consequential of the

The WSJ is reporting: Iran’s negotiating position remains largely unchanged, with mediators and U.S. officials saying there has been little progress toward a breakthrough deal. Trump said he halted planned U.S. strikes on Tuesday due to what he described as positive developments in negotiations. Iran continues demanding: An end to hostilities Financial relief and reparations

Sector Overview In today’s trading session, the U.S. stock market displayed mixed signals, with notable declines in the technology sector, particularly among semiconductor stocks. Companies such as Nvidia (NVDA) fell by 1.48%, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) faced a steep decline of 5.71%. Intel (INTC) also contributed to the downward trend with a drop of

We’ve made a lot of progress on Iran We can restart military campaign That is not what Trump or Iran wants to do. Iran wants to make a deal but won’t know until they sign a deal Earlier, seeming to lean more toward a another “hit” These are less alarming. The Dow is down -0.21%,

NATO warns alliance buildup will take years. The top NATA commander is speaking and says: As the European pillar of NATO gets stronger, this allows the U.S. to reduce its presence in Europe and limit itself to providing those critical capabilities allies cannot yet provide So we should expect a redeployment of U.S. forces over

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson warns equities face their first meaningful correction since late March if bond volatility persists, even as the bank raises its 12-month S&P 500 target to 8,300. Before you go on, Trump reacted to rising yields and falling stocks, as he reliably does, with a TACO: Trump: Stops the planned attack on

The NASDAQ index is rebounding sharply from its session lows after testing a key cluster of technical support levels. At the worst levels of the day, the index was down -389.29 points before buyers stepped in. It has since trimmed those losses significantly and is now down around -107 points, or -0.42%, at 25,988.48. Earlier

The USD Is higher vs the major currencies to kickstart the new trading day. The biggest gains are vs the AUD (+0.64%) and the NZD (+0.49%). The greenback is up 0.30% vs the EUR, 0.17% vs the JPY and 0.22% vs the GBP. In the video above, I talk about the technicals in play for

Prior month 1.7% revised from 1.5% Pending home sales (April): +1.4% MoM vs 1.0% estimate. Pending home sales (April): +3.2% YoY Regional breakdown: Northeast: +6.6% MoM, -0.6% YoY Midwest: +3.0% MoM, +2.7% YoY South: -0.7% MoM, +4.7% YoY West: +0.4% MoM, +3.8% YoY Top metro area gains in pending home sales YoY: Boston-Cambridge-Newton: +10.3% Miami-Fort

The on again-off again-on again cycle continues. Bombing is on again with reports that it is only a matter of time. Less than 24 hours ago, the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia talked Trump out of an apparent bombing. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior week 4 week average 33K Current week’s 4 week average Employment remains solid or at the very least, not reversing hard. The ADP NER Pulse is a newer high-frequency labor market indicator tied to the ADP National Employment Report (NER). It is designed to give traders and economists a more real-time look at hiring

The EURUSD is extending lower, falling to a new session low at 1.1593 after failing to sustain an earlier upside break in the early Asian-Pacific session. In the early trading today, the pair traded as high as 1.1661 briefly pushing above a key swing area ceiling near 1.1655, a level that had capped rallies throughout

Japan Finance Minister Mira Katayama says: Ready to take decisive action on forex BOJ Ueda says: Latest GDP data are mostly in line with our forecast, Middle East situation has begun to impact. Need to closely monitor signs on upward price pressure. Aware that long-term interest rates are rising rapidly. When asked about BOJ tapering

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq has been surging into new record highs despite the prolonged US-Iran stalemate and the Strait of Hormuz closure. The rally in April was justified by easing US-Iran tensions, the constant push for a diplomatic resolution instead of another full-fledged war and expectations that a deal would be reached eventually. Now, we

The GBPUSD remains under pressure after last week’s sharp political-driven selloff sent the pair tumbling nearly 350 pips from the 1.3652 high to the low near 1.3300 reached yesterday. Although buyers attempted a rebound, the recovery stalled at key technical resistance levels, allowing sellers to regain control and push the pair back toward the lows.

Record rise in equity allocations by global fund managers in May Just 4% of fund managers see hard landing 66% of respondents expect Hormuz bottleneck to end in next few months 62% of respondents target 6% on 30-year treasury yields, 20% target 4% 40% of respondents say second wave of inflation is biggest tail risk

Prior 2.4% CPI MoM 0.4% vs 0.7% expected Prior CPI MoM 0.9% Core Measures: BOC core YoY 2.1% vs 2.5% last month BOC core MoM 0.2% vs 0.2% last month Core CPI % MOM 0.1% vs 0.0% last month CPI Median 2.1% vs 2.2% estimate. Last month 2.3% CPI Trim 2.0% vs 2.1% estimate. Last

Trump administration not in a hurry to extend China trade truce due to expire in November U.S.-China truce on critical minerals and tariff rates can be extended through subsequent meetings this year New Section 301 tariffs would not be a problem for China as long as they do not exceed prior agreed levels from November

NVDA earnings prediction: bearish event-risk bias, but not a clean short yet Nvidia stock enters its upcoming earnings report with a final integrated prediction score of -3.4 / +10, suggesting a moderately bearish event-risk bias. This is not a clean breakdown call, but the setup warns that NVDA has already made a large move into

Pres. Trump is speaking on many topics: We may have to give Iran another hit, not sure Was hours from attacking Iran Iran is begging to make a deal. Don’t know about changing the regime in Cuba. Cuba really needs help Everyone tells me that the Iran war is unpopular, but I think it’s very

Iran conflict creates risk to growth and inflation Two supply shocks happening at a global level We reaffirm our strong commitment to price stability, this is a strong collective commitment Monetary policy will remain data dependent Global central bankers are monitoring second-round effects We are ready to act as much as necessary ECB’s Villeroy stressed

Iran has launched a Bitcoin-backed shipping insurance service for Hormuz Strait transits, as Tehran simultaneously unveiled a new authority to formally manage strait traffic and collect transit fees. Summary: Source: Bloomberg (gated), citing Fars news agency and documents from Iran’s Ministry of Economy and Financial Affairs. Iran has launched Hormuz Safe, a Bitcoin-backed insurance service

Japan Q1 GDP (preliminary): GDP annualised: +2.1% (vs 1.7% exp, 1.3% prev) GDP quarter-on-quarter: +0.5% (vs 0.4% exp, 0.3% prev) Private consumption Q/Q: +0.3% (vs 0.2% exp, 0.3% prev) Capital expenditure Q/Q: +0.3% (vs 0.2% exp, 1.3% prev) External demand Q/Q: +0.3% (vs 0.2% exp, 0.0% prev) The price index from the GDP results is

It looked like risk sentiment was bound to take a big knock yesterday but not for some mix of headlines to start the week. First, we had Iranian media saying that the US is to propose a temporary waiver to sanctions. That helped to bring risk trades off their lows before the news was denied

US President Trump says the number of drugs available on TrumpRx is to be increased by nearly 7 times. Scheme will have more than 600 generics added. This will help many people out. Kudos where its due, well done. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was -8.4% (revised to -7.8%) In March, the total value of building permits issued in Canada increased $1.3 billion (+10.3%) to $13.5 billion. The increase in construction intentions was led by the non-residential sector (+$1.5 billion) and tempered by the residential sector (-$270.6 million). On a constant dollar basis, the total value of building

In the morning kickstart video, I commented on the 1.1655 level as a key target. The infograph highlights my key technical comment on that pair (see highlighted yellow are on the infograph below from the start of the trading day): The price did move higher and tested that level in the North American session reaching

Despite the constant back and forth between the two sides, it doesn’t look like much has changed in recent weeks. Iran’s deputy foreign minister is out confirming that their latest proposal to the US will still include the same terms laid out before. And that is calling for Washington to lift its naval blockade and

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar extended the gains across the board as markets are starting to grow impatient amid the prolonged US-Iran stalemate and Strait of Hormuz closure. Treasury yields came into the spotlight on Friday as they broke March highs on increasing inflation worries and potentially hawkish Fed. For context, the Fed is

Japan’s economy minister Kiuchi cited strong wage momentum and improving job conditions underpinning a moderate recovery, while pledging nimble government action to address Middle East conflict risks. Earlier: Japan Q1 GDP beats forecasts at 2.1% but Iran war energy shock threatens momentum USD/JPY on approach to 159! How you left, Ministry of Finance? Summary: Source:

Nasdaq’s bullish momentum stalls as downside risks mount: pause or start of a correction? Euro area trade surplus narrows in March as energy deficit widens on Middle East conflict Oil prices remain persistently elevated amid prolonged US-Iran stalemate There is potential for a strong dollar rally this week – Barclays Exclusive Crypto Event for Finance

ICYMI (Monday): Japan signals FX intervention readiness, vowing to shield US bond market ICYMI – Iran launches Bitcoin-backed ship insurance scheme for Strait of Hormuz transit Japan economy minister backs recovery but warns of Middle East conflict fallout risk RBA minutes: Eight of nine members backed May hike as inflation expectations risk grew Japan Q1

MUFG says the dollar posted its best week since the Iran conflict began as hotter-than-expected inflation data, rising yields and the arrival of hawkish Fed chair Kevin Warsh combined to shift market rate expectations. Summary: MUFG research note. The dollar rose 1.4% last week, its largest weekly gain since the outbreak of the Iran conflict

New Zealand producer input prices rose 1.4% in Q1 and output prices gained 0.8%, while electronic card retail sales fell 1.3% in April, Statistics New Zealand data showed on Tuesday. Summary: Source: Statistics New Zealand, released Tuesday 18 May 2026. Q1 producer price index inputs rose 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior

Westpac’s survey of consumer sentiment remains deeply sad. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There are a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but are quite chunky, so they might have some impact on price action in the session ahead. The dollar is

ILO unemployment rate 5.0% vs 4.9% expected Prior 4.9% Employment change 148k vs 104k expected Prior 25k Average weekly earnings +4.1% vs +3.8% 3m/y expected Prior +3.8%; revised to +3.9% Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.4% vs +3.4% 3m/y expected Prior +3.6% April payrolls change -100k Prior -11k; revised to -28k Those are a softer

RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter is set to address inflation and the impact of the Middle East conflict at the Bloomberg Forum for Investment Managers in Sydney, with markets on alert for hawkish signals. Summary: RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter is scheduled to speak at the Bloomberg Forum for Investment Managers in Sydney, per

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Data from New Zealand kicks off the calendar. Japan ‘flash’ GDP reading for the January – March quarter follows. March was impacted by Trump’s ill-fated war on Iran. Minutes due from the RBA, Assistant Governor (Economic) Hunter speaks at 9.25am local time (0025 GMT/2025 US Eastern time) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Japan stands ready to intervene against excessive yen volatility at any time, Finance Minister Katayama said at the G7, while officials confirmed Tokyo will avoid selling US Treasuries to fund any action. Earlier on this here: Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama seeing speculative moves in the financial markets Adding more now. Summary: Source: Japanese Finance Minister

Trump says good chance of Iran deal … ‘hopefully maybe forever’ regarding the decision to delay Iran attack if we can make a deal where they don’t get a nuclear weapon, we will probably be satisfied This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs cuts its 12-month US recession probability to 25% from 30%, with chief economist Jan Hatzius citing resilient activity and easing financial conditions despite the Strait of Hormuz closure. Summary: US recession probability cut to 25% from 30%, with economic activity holding up and financial conditions easing back below pre-war levels Three factors cited

Trump says there is a good chance an Iran nuclear deal can be reached after pausing a planned military strike at the request of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, who believe an agreement is close. Summary: President Donald Trump, public remarks. Trump said there appears to be a good chance a nuclear deal with

The major US stock indices are closing mixed, with the Dow industrial average ending higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices finished modestly lower. Stocks were able to rebound off their session lows after President Trump said an imminent bombing of Iran would be delayed at the request of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Despite the suspected Japanese FX intervention totalling around $65 billion, USD/JPY climbing steadily back. – Japan’s currency intervention mechanism sits at the intersection of fiscal and monetary authority in a way that is unlike most other developed economies. The power to intervene in foreign exchange markets rests not with the Bank of Japan but with

RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warns oil price pass-through into Australian consumer prices will be faster and more extensive given elevated capacity constraints and domestic cost pressures. Summary: Source: RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, prepared speech at the Bloomberg Forum for Investment Managers, Sydney, Tuesday 18 May 2026. Hunter described the Middle East conflict as

We have too high inflation. Inflation has got to be front of mine when Warsh starts as chair The job market is stable. If cut rates too much, you ignite inflation more. Comments are congruent with his comments from late last week. Fed officials cannot exhort inflation ignore. The markets are pricing in a 50%

US stocks close mixed. Dow closes higher. S&P and Nadaq close lower Fed’s Goolsbee; Inflation has got to be front of mind when Warsh starts as chair Trump: Stops the planned attack on Iran on request from Saudi’s and UAE Jury rules against Elon Musk and for Sam Altman and OpenAI. Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama

The jury ruled against Elon Musk against Sam Altman and OpenAI Jury unanimously dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman. Case was thrown out because the claims were filed after the statute of limitations expired. Jury deliberated for less than two hours. Musk alleged OpenAI “stole a charity” by shifting from nonprofit to

Japan’s finance minister Katayama says: Seeing speculative moves in the financial markets volatility in oil prices is affecting Forex market Told G7 we needed to take action to correct global imbalances. We need to address risks regarding Mythos Told G7 that we should be united against China’s export control of critical materials. Need to closely

European stocks closed mostly higher to start the new trading week, led by gains in Germany and the UK, while Italy lagged and finished in negative territory. Germany’s DAX climbed 1.24%, France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.44%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.26%. Spain’s Ibex added 0.75% as buyers maintained a generally constructive tone across

Korea Exchange activated a sidecar on the KOSPI KOSPI 200 futures fell 5% The ‘sidecar’ halts programme trading for 5 minutes. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prediction Score: -5 / +10 Bias: Bearish while Bitcoin remains below 80,450, with 75,000 now the key support test Bitcoin futures remain under pressure after the recent sell-the-news reaction I warned about very early Friday, followed by a trading map for consideration for Bitcoin traders. The key bearish gateway was 80,450, and once BTC failed

China April 2026 economic activity data. Retail Sales 0.2% y/y expected 2.0%, prior 1.7% Industrial Production 4.1% y/y expected 5.9^ prior 5.7% Fixed Asset Investment -1.6% y/y ytd expected 1.7%, prior Prev. 1.7% Unemployment Rate 5.2% prior 5.4% I’ll have more to come on this separately, details etc. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Earlier reports suggesting the United States had agreed to lift oil sanctions while negotiations continue have now been denied by a U.S. official, helping reverse the sharp selloff seen earlier in crude oil trading. The clarification quickly shifted sentiment back toward tighter supply concerns and renewed buying interest in the energy market. As a result,

China’s April retail sales rose just 0.2%, the weakest since 2022, while industrial output grew only 4.1%, badly missing forecasts, as the Iran war and sluggish domestic demand weighed. Summary: China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported April industrial output growth of 4.1% year-on-year, down from 5.7% in March and well below the 5.9% forecast, while

Prior month 34 NAHB housing index rises 3 to 37 vs 34 estimate Sales conditions rose by +3 to 40 Buyer Traffic was also up +3 to 25 Sales expectations rose +3 to 45. The latest NAHB Housing Market Index survey showed builders were slightly less aggressive on outright price cuts in May, with 32%

The USDCHF has once again run into a familiar technical ceiling, and sellers are leaning against the resistance area. Looking at the hourly chart, the pair pushed higher on Friday and into trading today, reaching a key resistance zone between 0.7869 and 0.7880. That area is not random. It is defined by the broken 38.2%

The nominations are in. Now the industry’s most trader-focused competition moves to the only judges that matter: the traders themselves. From 12 May to 19 May, active traders across the industry have the floor, and the brands that have earned their trust are now finding out exactly how much that trust is worth. This is

Japan’s 10-year bond yield hit its highest since 1996 at 4.2% after a government source confirmed fresh debt issuance is planned to fund a supplementary budget to offset Iran war energy costs. Summary: A Japanese government source told Reuters that fresh debt issuance will likely form part of the funding for a planned supplementary budget

As the new trading day gets underway, markets are off to a relatively cautious and choppy start. Oil prices are modestly lower and trading near session lows after giving back an earlier spike higher. U.S. yields are also slightly lower — down around 1 basis point across much of the curve after trading higher earlier

Release of strategic oil reserves have added 2.5 million bpd to the market However, they are not endless There is a perception gap between the physical oil market and futures Commercial oil inventories are depleting rapidly, only a few weeks left This continues his warning from last month, in saying that Europe could run out

This is coming from the Iranian camp, as reported by Tasnim News agency. THe report says that the US has agreed to propose a temporary waiver of Iran oil sanctions during negotiations, with this set to be administered via a temporary OFAC exemption until a final agreement is reached between both sides. Iran is trying

Understanding Today’s Market Dynamics As the trading doors open today, the stock market paints a vivid picture filled with greens and reds across various sectors. Here’s a detailed breakdown of what’s happening right now. 📈 Technology Sector: A Surge in Optimism Software & Infrastructure: Microsoft (MSFT) holds steady, dipping slightly by 0.04%, but Oracle (ORCL)

The USDCAD pushed up to and through the 50% midpoint of the trend-like decline from the March 31 high last week, with that key level coming in at 1.37576. On Friday, the pair extended to 1.37665 before rotating lower and ultimately closing back below the midpoint level — a sign that buyers could not sustain

Axios is reporting: US rejects the most recent proposal from Iran White House considers it not to be a meaningful improvement Iran not making meaningful concessions on its nuclear program. Calls the improvements only “Token improvements” on the last version. US senior official says that ” We are not making a lot of progress. We

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver erased most of its monthly gains in the final part of last week as real yields surged and we got broad risk-off flows heading into the weekend risk after some hawkish Trump’s remarks on Iran. The divergence with gold we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks has been now corrected. Overall,

erAl Arabiay is reporting: Iran agrees to a long-term nuclear freeze in lieu of a complete dismantling They have withdrawn demand for compensation. Instead demanding economic concessions Would like to transfer enriched uranium to Russia instead of the US Seeking multiple international guarantees Want a gradual and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz A

Nasdaq Futures tradeCompass Update: Bull Trap Risk Rises After Failed Push Toward 29300 Prediction Score: -3 / +10Bias: Bearish while NQ remains below 29,300Last updated: At 04:36 PM CEST (Berlin), it is 10:36 AM (UTC-4). Key takeaways for Nasdaq futures traders Nasdaq futures failed to sustain the push toward 29,300, creating a potential bull trap

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold sank into monthly lows on Friday as real yields surged and we got broad risk-off flows heading into the weekend. There might have been some hedging due to Trump’s hawkish remarks amid the prolonged negotiating deadlock. Overall, the fundamentals haven’t changed at all. The main problem for gold remains the Fed. Although

Headlines: US reportedly to temporarily waive Iran sanctions in new draft proposal Iran’s ForMin Spokesperson says process of talks through Pakistani mediation is ongoing IEA chief warns that commercial oil inventories are depleting rapidly Gold remains under pressure amid worries of Fed rate hikes, prolonged US-Iran stalemate Surging bond yields are a major pain point

As the US stocks open up, the earlier losses and gains have been eroded as the prices of the major indices trade near unchanged. Yields are lower by about two basis points at the front end of the yield curve and near unchanged at the 30 year end. Crude oil is down. Silver and gold

The AUDUSD moved sharply lower on Thursday and Friday of last week after failing to extend above the prior week’s high at 0.7277. The high price for the week reached 0.7271 — just six pips shy of that key target level — before sellers took back control and pushed the pair sharply lower. The decline

Monday starts off quietly, with no major scheduled economic events for the FX market. Data releases pick up Tuesday with the U.K. claimant count change, average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate. The focus then shifts to the Canadian inflation data. On Wednesday, we’ll also get inflation figures for the U.K. followed by the

New Zealand’s services sector contracted for a second straight month in April, with the PSI reading at 48.9, as businesses cited fuel prices and the Strait of Hormuz conflict as key headwinds. Summary: The BNZ-BusinessNZ PSI came in at 48.9 in April, up from 46.2 in March but still below the 50.0 expansion threshold, with

Zcash has surged 1,140% in the past year as bitcoin pioneers including the Winklevoss twins back the privacy token, with fading US regulatory fears adding fuel to the rally. Summary: Zcash has gained around 50% in the past month and 1,140% over the past year, driven by institutional backing from figures including the Winklevoss twins

For the m/m -0.1% prior -0.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump is holding off for a revised offer from Tehran, and still believes Iran is willing to reach an agreement, according to Axios. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mon: Holiday: Canada’s Victoria Day, Chinese Industrial Production (Apr), Chinese Retail Sales (Apr), Chinese Unemployment Rate (Apr), Swiss GDP (Q1), New Zealand PPI Q/Q (Q1) Tue: RBA Minutes (May), Japanese GDP (Q1), Japanese Capacity Utilisation (Mar), Japanese Industrial Production Final (Mar), UK Jobs (Mar), EZ Balance of Trade (Mar), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Canadian

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK asking prices rose 1.2% in May, above seasonal norms, while a separate survey showed British employer confidence near record lows with pay awards set to lag inflation. Summary: Rightmove reported UK asking prices rose 1.2% month-on-month in May, above the typical 1.0% seasonal increase, while the average two-year fixed mortgage rate eased to 5.18%

Global oil stocks are nearing exhaustion as Iran war disruption persists, with refined product reserves draining fastest and prices at risk of a convulsive spike, analysts warn. Summary: Multiple analysts argue Iran’s negotiating posture, its Strait of Hormuz threats and the UAE nuclear facility drone strike reflect a regime that feels undeterred and believes time