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The scale of the disconnect between Samsung’s earnings beat and its share price reaction points to a market already positioned for strong results, leaving little room for further upside on the headline number alone. The simultaneous declines in SK Hynix and Micron suggest investors are reassessing the memory chip cycle broadly rather than Samsung specifically, […]

The increase in the Southbound Bond Connect quota, from 500 billion to 800 billion yuan, expands the channel through which mainland investors can access Hong Kong’s bond market, potentially supporting demand for Hong Kong dollar and offshore yuan denominated debt. Pan’s comments that foreign exchange reserves will increase allocation to Hong Kong markets add a

If accurate, the episode would fit a broader pattern of Chinese authorities treating candid economic commentary as politically sensitive, particularly warnings that draw comparisons to Japan’s prolonged stagnation. Such incidents can have a chilling effect on independent economic analysis originating from within China, making it harder for investors to gauge genuine sentiment among domestic academics

The currency pair continues to do battle in and around the 162 level to start the new week. And according to Credit Agricole, this sort of push and pull is likely to persist for longer with Tokyo officials set to help keep things in check – for now at least. The firm notes that: “The

May 2026 data from Japan. Household spending: +3.7% m/m expected +1.4%, prior +1.6% -0.3% y/y expected -2.5%, prior -0.5% Wages: Average Cash Earnings +3.2% y/y expected +3.4%, prior +3.5%) Same Sample Base Cash Earnings +2.9% prior +2.9% Overtime Pay +2.9% y/y prior +4.2% — I’ll have more to come on this separately. This article was

US stocks close higher. Another record for the Dow. Nasdaq is the best performing index Crude oil settles down $0.14 at $68.55 German Dax/Italy FTSE MIB close at a new records, but other indices close lower. ECBs Wunsch: it seems that Iran shop has disappeared. Have not seen much 2nd round effects More from Waller:

Nasdaq Today: Bears Have Control Below 29,840, But Traders Should Be Careful Chasing Weakness Prediction Score: -5 / +10Current bias: Bearish while Nasdaq remains below 29,840-29,950, but short entries become lower quality if price is already pressing into 29,715-29,700 support. Nasdaq has failed another attempt to hold the important 30,000 area. After trading above that

The mood music yesterday was a better one with US stocks posting a broader advance across the board. Tech shares led the way to start the week but now, we’re starting to see the ugly side of things creep back in today. The drop is being led by a big selloff in Asia, with the

Halifax/Llyods house prices +0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.1% UK house prices rose for the first time in four months in June, with the typical property now costing £299,330 on average. Of note, the annual growth also nudged up a little to 0.6% but the quarterly change reflects a 0.4% decline to house prices

Industrial production +0.9% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.4%; revised to +0.2% That’s a modest bump up in German industrial output for the month of May, following a downward revision to the April figure. The less volatile three-month comparison shows production from March to May 2026 being 0.1% higher than in the three preceding months.

The next round of talks have been postponed by a week, with both sides claiming it to be due to funeral processions. However, Araghchi is offering up a bit of a reminder as to how fragile the current understanding can be. He says that: “Para 13 of the MoU is clear: Negotiations on final Deal

Japan wage data (cash earnings data) is expected to remain solid. Household spending looks set to fall year-on-year for a sixth consecutive month in May, as households continue to tighten belts against still-high living costs. Part of the decline reflects a tough comparison: last May saw a sharp spending spike, largely from car purchases, after

Bitcoin’s ability to rise on Monday despite fresh doubts over the reserve’s legal footing suggests the market is treating the plan as a longer-term structural question rather than an immediate price driver. With the federal government’s holdings worth more than $20 billion, any eventual resolution, whether housed at Treasury or Commerce, could still matter for

The selloff in chip-related shares across Japan and South Korea highlights how closely the Nikkei tracks sentiment in Samsung and the broader Korean market, even when the trigger is a strong earnings forecast rather than a weak one. The rotation out of technology and into financials and other value names suggests investors are using the

Social media post from the prez. The Federal Reserve will like to see price drops, if this is real. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. prior close 6.7924 Injects 10bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) is UK Royal Navy Naval Reserve–manned: UKMTO has received a report of an incident 8NM east of Limah, Oman. A tanker has reported being hit by an unknown projectile on the port side causing a fire, whilst travelling southbound. No casualties or environmental impact reported. Authorities are investigating. Oil

The shift toward Clearwater highlights a new kind of flexibility in Canada’s oil sector, one built for speed rather than scale. Where oil sands megaprojects take years to plan and build, Clearwater wells can be drilled and brought online within months, letting producers respond almost in real time to firmer prices or supply shocks such

Crude oil futures settled at $68.55, down $0.14 (-0.20%) on the day. Prices traded between a high of $69.26 and a low of $67.82. From a technical perspective, buyers made an attempt to push above the falling 100-hour moving average, currently at $68.77, but the move lacked follow-through and quickly faded. Meanwhile, the 200-hour moving

The EURUSD and GBPUSD have both turned sharply higher in the early North American afternoon, with buyers gaining momentum. For the EURUSD, the pair has erased its earlier losses and is now trading close to unchanged on the day. From a technical perspective, the key development is the failed break below the 100-hour moving average

European stocks finished mostly lower on Monday as investors took profits after the STOXX 600 touched another record high earlier in the session. The broad STOXX 600 slipped 0.35% to 650.5, with weakness in healthcare, utilities, and food & beverage shares leading the decline. Despite the broader pullback, Germany’s DAX outperformed, rising 0.15% to another

The Nasdaq index came under pressure last Thursday after spending much of the week battling its 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below). Throughout the end of June and into early July, buyers repeatedly pushed above that key technical level, but only by a modest margin. Buyers had their shot. They missed. Each

Crude Oil Futures Analysis: Price Still Below the Key Intraday Decision Zone Crude oil futures remain under short-term pressure while price trades near 68.50, just below the key 68.60-68.70 intraday decision zone. For now, the investingLive tradeCompass read stays bear-leaning below that area, while swing traders may prefer to judge the larger bearish case against

ECB Schnabel (hawk) says: Current price shock cannot simply be looked through. Prices are already generating indirect and potentially second round effects We are not in a pre-war situation even after fall in oil prices. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Tech and healthcare stocks diverge: A tale of contrasting fortunes Today’s stock market landscape showcases a stark contrast between the performance of technology and healthcare sectors. Investors and traders are witnessing mixed signals across various market segments, reflecting an intricate tapestry of sentiment and sector-specific news. 📊 Sector Overview Technology: The technology sector is offering

Goldman’s revised central-bank demand model, which lifted its estimated purchases to roughly 60 tonnes a month through 2026 from an earlier 29-tonne pace, gives the bullish case a firmer structural anchor even after the bank trimmed its year-end target by $500 in June. The dispersion across Wall Street, from BofA’s more cautious $4,800 to JPMorgan’s

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. prior close 6.7780 more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Headlines: A week later and not much has changed with the Strait of Hormuz situation EUR/USD continues to erase the NFP gains as focus remains on the US CPI data. What’s next? Yen-tervention risks remain in focus to start the new week Gold extends the pullback after the mixed NFP, but the focus remains on

The episode highlights how fragile the strait’s reopening remains even after the mid-June US-Iran deal, with shipping volumes still running well below pre-war levels and vulnerable to sudden disruption whenever Iran presses its claim over the authorized transit route. The rise in ships going dark, switching off transponders to avoid detection, points to growing uncertainty

The USD is higher with the USDJPY the biggest mover with a gain of 0.59% after testing a swing level near 160.446 on Friday and bouncing and continuing the run to the upside today back through the 100 and 200 hour MA between 161.86 and 161.92. Remember the 161.95-97 was the old high from 2024

The “Trump Accounts” are opening today, and Pres. Trump when asked if they would include Bitcoin, responded by saying “I am a big fan of crypto” and that the Trump Accounts could include the digital currency. It was reported over last week or so that President Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure shows that cryptocurrency became the

In his prepared remarks, Fed’s Waller said: Forward guidance remains a valuable monetary policy tool when used under the right circumstances. Forward guidance can strengthen monetary policy transmission by influencing financial conditions before actual policy rate changes occur. When it works, forward guidance can change economic conditions more quickly than adjusting the policy rate alone.

The USDCHF moved lower last week, and in the process tested an important swing area between 0.80090 and 0.80178 (rednumbered circles on the chart below) on both Thursday and Friday. The decline also reached the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the May 29 low to the June 24 high, a level that came in

Goldman’s shift to one of the most bearish USD/JPY calls on the Street, alongside a market-implied probability of around 72% for 165 by next June, suggests positioning and forecaster consensus are increasingly aligned around further yen weakness rather than a reversal, even with the currency already trading well below what most models suggest is fair

Goldman cuts yen forecast to 165, among most bearish on Wall Street ASB backs RBNZ hold in July Hong Kong pension fund to ease rules on gold ETF investment, source says Oil glut could weaken Iran’s Hormuz leverage as stocks slowly refill Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge, June 2026: 32.9% y/y (vs. prior 4.4%) New Zealand

ANZ’s call for a hike framed around risk management rather than a strong economic signal suggests the bank sees limited room for the RBNZ to sit still even with headline inflation pressures easing. The emphasis on a soft New Zealand dollar as an underappreciated inflation risk points to FX markets as a key channel to

Australia Melbourne Institute inflation gauge is a privately conducted survey. Its not so much focused on any more now that the Australian Bureau of Statistics produces monthly CPI data. 3.9% y/y for June 2026 prior 4.4% -0.4% m.m prior -0.3% Also: ANZ-Indeed Job Ads, also for June -0.2% m/m prior 1.8% This article was written

From the end of last month: There’s still mud in the waters on how things are playing out with the Strait of Hormuz Last week, the average traffic saw around 30 to 40 vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz per day. And despite that, crude oil tankers were still limited to less than double digits

Towards the end of last week, USD/JPY offered up some interesting price moves. The currency pair fell in the run up to the US jobs report before some pushing and pulling in holiday-thin trading on Friday. But after settling near unchanged from just before the non-farm payrolls, we’re now seeing the pair run up again

Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy Inc. (formerly known as MicroStrategy), is the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company. Strategy has disclosed the sale of 3,588 Bitcoin (BTC) for approximately $216 million between June 29 and July 5, 2026. According to a regulatory filing, the liquidations were executed to fund distribution payments for the company’s perpetual

Any resumption of Japanese purchases would mark a symbolic shift in Iran’s export base, which has leaned heavily on Chinese buyers since 2019, though the near-term impact on flows looks limited given the temporary waiver’s narrow window and unresolved shipping risk. Well-stocked Asian refiners are unlikely to rush into orders under a waiver expiring August

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar came under some pressure in the final part of last week following the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a July hike are now standing at just 24%, while the probabilities

Pouyanné’s comments point to an unusual bifurcation in the oil complex, with crude prices collapsing on a stockpile overhang even as refined product markets stay tight and priced well above what current Brent levels would imply. That gap creates an opportunity in refining margins for companies with spare processing capacity, while continuing to squeeze fuel-dependent

Japanese markets open the week with the yen having pulled back modestly from Tuesday’s 40-year low, but the underlying pressures that drove it there remain firmly in place, keeping intervention risk on the table for the session(s) ahead. The combination of a still-weak currency, rising import costs and a fresh 30-year high in benchmark JGB

A near-even shadow board points to genuine uncertainty heading into the July review, suggesting markets should not treat a hold as a foregone conclusion and may see volatility around the decision itself. The consistent view that the OCR needs to reach 3 to 3.25% over the coming year, regardless of the July call, anchors medium-term

S&P 500 ES futures are +0.4% to open the new week’s trade. NQ +1.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Stockholm meeting fits a broader pattern of Beijing signalling openness to foreign capital at a time of slowing domestic growth and soft consumer demand, aiming to shore up sentiment among multinationals weighing exposure to China. Coming just ahead of a China-EU leaders’ summit, the outreach to a marquee European investor like the Wallenberg family

The report says that the Chinese navy has launched a missile towards an area in the international waters of the South Pacific. Adding that they have conducted the test launch of said strategic missile by submarine. Earlier in the day, media reports from Australia and New Zealand said that the respective governments were informed of

Not too much change from late on Friday. I’ll be back soon with weekend news. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The rotation into India reflects a broader search for diversification as concerns build over the durability of the AI-driven rally in markets like South Korea and Taiwan, positioning the Nifty 50 as a relative safe haven precisely because of its limited AI exposure. Falling volatility, a stabilizing rupee and receding oil-linked pressure on refiners and

The divergence between the world price index, up 1.3% year on year, and the NZD-denominated index, down 0.3% in May on currency strength, highlights how much of the recent gains are being offset for New Zealand exporters by exchange rate movements rather than being passed through in full. Aluminium remains the clearest read-through from the

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Anthropic’s plans to buy 1.4GW of Aussie data centre capacity will cost as much as $US15 billion ($21.6 billion) to build, Australian Financial Review cite a tender issued confidentially by Anthropic Anthropic is about six weeks away from making a final investment decision This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

An 18-fold profit jump would confirm the memory sector’s rally is being driven by genuine earnings momentum rather than speculation, reinforcing the trillion-dollar valuations now attached to Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron after triple-digit share gains this year. Rising DRAM and NAND prices point to further margin expansion for memory makers even as they squeeze

The Barmer commissioning underscores a widening divergence in global refining capacity, with India adding processing capability just as Western economies continue to retire ageing plants, a trend likely to shift the geography of refined product exports further toward Asia over the rest of the decade. With India projected to account for close to a quarter

It’s a quiet one the data agenda, these unlikely to move financial markets around too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mon: BoC Business Outlook Survey (Jul), German FactoryOrders (May), Swiss Unemployment Rate (Jun), EZ Construction PMI (Jun), RetailSales (May), PPI (May), US Composite/Services PMI Finals (Jun), ISM ServicesPMI (Jun) Tue: EIA STEO (Jul), Japanese Household Spending(May), German Industrial Production (May), French Balance of Trade (May), USADP Weekly Employment Change, Balance of Trade, RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism(Jul),

Nike stock analysis: Is NKE quietly building a long-term bottom after earnings? Nike stock is showing signs of a constructive long-term repair after its recent post-earnings volatility. The setup is not strong enough to justify chasing rallies, but the chart has improved enough that patient investors may want to watch pullbacks into support. On my

Discover the real reason why trading consistency beats intensity, and how you can turn consistency into consistent profits The post Why Trading Consistency Beats Intensity appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

The widening gap between redemption requests and actual payouts points to a liquidity mismatch that is becoming harder for fund managers to paper over, with even less-exposed names like Apollo, Ares and HPS now seeing requests accelerate. Managers gating withdrawals to preserve capital, rather than meeting requests in full as some did earlier in the

BOE seeks to hit inflation target without damaging output Market pricing puts the odds of a hike in November at roughly 50%. If oil stays down here the effects of the war should be unwound quickly so we will see where inflation lands by Q4. The pound is up 6 pips to 1.3352 today and

Services PMI 49.4 vs 48.9 prelim Prior 47.7 Composite PMI 50.0 vs 49.5 prelim Prior 48.5 Both the services and composite prints are 3-month highs respectively, reflecting a modest recovery in business activity in the euro area to wrap up Q2 2026. New business volume may have fallen for a fourth successive month, but at

The rebound confirms fuel prices, rather than a broader loss of confidence, were the key driver of the March slump, with the sharp and symmetric reversal in inflation expectations likely to reinforce the RBNZ’s comfort that the price shock is not embedding itself into household psychology. The pickup corroborates other recent signals, including a bounce

Services PMI 54.2 vs 50.9 expected Prior 50.1 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 48.1 Final Composite PMI 49.5 vs 48.0 prelim Prior 48.8 Key findings: Business activity falls for third month running, but cost pressures ease substantially June sees further, albeit slightly slower, drop in business activity Input price inflation retreats to seven-month low Employment falls at weakest rate in current sequence of job losses Comment: Phil

Cereal and packaged food giant General Mills reported earnings this week and the read from the was unambiguous: the consumer is stressed, staying stressed, and the company is planning around it rather than hoping for a turn. The core messages is that they don’t assume any improvement. Dana McNabb (COO) laid it out directly: “What

Services PMI 46.8 vs 47.4 prelim Prior 44.3 Composite PMI 47.2 vs 47.6 prelim Prior 44.9 The final readings are softer than the initial estimates but at least reaffirms that the downturn in the French economy is less profound in June than it was in May. Of note, the PMI data reveals the slowest declines

UBS sees Fed on hold as Warsh downplays inflation risk despite hike bets China services growth eases slightly as export orders hit 20-month high Japan fin min says ready to respond to FX moves PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8047 (vs. estimate at 6.7808) Canada – PM Carney confirms southern Trans

Interest rate moves are determined by markets Monetary policy falls under the jurisdiction of the BOJ Government will continue to work closely with the BOJ Will not pursue fiscal policies that undermine market confidence Closely monitoring market movements with high sense of urgency Always monitoring daily market moves, economic indicators Will take appropriate action on

Gold rallied in Asia and has held its gains since in quiet holiday trading. It’s up $53 to $4147 and looking to climb for the first week in five. The gain today came in a burst in Asia and topped out at $4194 before chopping sideways. Gold has struggled since topping at $5418 just before

Prior 49.3 Final Composite PMI 49.3 vs 49.4 prelim Prior 49.7 Key findings: Activity falls to greatest extent for nearly three and a half years New orders decrease for fourth month in a row Input cost inflation eases to its lowest since March Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “June

The main highlight in ending the week for US markets was the non-farm payrolls release yesterday. It was a disappointing headline figure, which led to further downside in the dollar. In case you missed it: US June non-farm payrolls +57K vs +110K expected Still, US stocks closed in a more mixed mood amid a big

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has weakened across the board yesterday following the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a July hike dropped to 17% vs 30% before the NFP release, and the probabilities for a

UBS call that markets are overpricing Fed tightening. UBS see current elevated yields as a buying opportunity in short- to medium-maturity quality bonds rather than a level to fade. The disconnect between resilient headline jobs data and decelerating wage growth is central to UBS’s thesis that labor market strength isn’t translating into the kind of

Japan’s largest union group Rengo confirms that the final tally of the annual labour talk results showed that Japanese firms have agreed to raise pay by 5.01% on average this year. This figure is of course watered down from the 5.26% according to preliminary estimates, as is typically the case. That now makes it three

Prior 49.4 Composite PMI 50.8 vs 50.4 prior Key findings: Growth of Italian service sector reinstated, supported by fresh intake of new business in June Strength in domestic sales drives renewed growth in total new business Cost pressures soften and confidence improves Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The service sector joined

It’s a quick drop of around 50 pips for USD/JPY this time, with the timing of things being somewhat similar to when the drop yesterday occurred. This time around at least, we’re seeing the dollar also stay under pressure across the board after having softened following the US non-farm payrolls yesterday. In case you missed

There are a few large expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. However, they do sit quite a distance away from the current spot price. As such, the expiries highlighted may not feature much into play but is worth noting just in case. The first one is for EUR/USD

Bitcoin Futures Analysis Today: BTC Repair Holds, But Bulls Still Need $62.7K Confirmation Bitcoin futures have repaired from the late June lower-value zone, but the move is now stalling below the first major daily confirmation area. The short-term structure is no longer bearish while BTC holds above $61,100-$61,300, but a clean bullish takeover still needs

US June non-farm payrolls +57K vs +110K expected US initial jobless claims 215K vs 220K estimate. US May factory orders -1.3% vs -1.8% expected US officials believed Israel might have been plotting to assassinate Iran’s negotiators Zuckerberg: AI agent development over last four months hasn’t accelerated as expected Blackstone said to abandon a large data

American officials were worried that Israel was plotting to kill Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the parliament, during ceasefire negotiations in April. The NYT reports. Fearful that an Israeli assassination effort would doom the negotiations, the United States, according to some of the officials, went so far as

The headline return to expansion is unlikely to shift RBA rate expectations much given it was driven by staffing rather than demand, with new orders now contracting for a fourth straight month and backlogs being run down rather than rebuilt. The sharpest signal for markets is the confidence collapse to a two-and-a-half-year low, which points

Lagarde’s insistence that the June hike remains appropriate even under a more favourable Middle East scenario signals the ECB is prioritising underlying inflation persistence over a peace dividend from the Iran ceasefire, limiting scope for near-term dovish repricing. The modest 0.1 percentage point downgrade to growth, against a labour market still near record-low unemployment, points

Earlier in the week we had official PMIs from China China factory PMI beats forecast at 50.3 as AI-linked exports drive expansion China’s domestic demand engine sputtering despite stronger headline PMI And also the private manufacturing PMI: RatingDog PMI caps China’s strongest quarter for manufacturing since 2020 Today it’s the private services PMI. The ‘expected”

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has been consolidating above a key trendline since last week as the hawkish repricing reached a near-term peak. Traders are now waiting for the US NFP and US CPI reports to pick a direction. Right now, the market is pricing in a 29% chance of a rate hike in July, which rises

So much for the fireworks in the Nasdaq. Earlier today, I highlighted the potential for a Fourth of July, America’s 250th anniversary rally, as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were flashing bullish technical signals. The S&P was pulling away from its 200-hour moving average near 7471.61, while the Nasdaq had pushed above its own

The new platform enables traders to compare prop firms side by side using hundreds of funding rules, account features and trading conditions, making it one of the most comprehensive futures prop firm comparison tools available. Prop Firm Compare https://propfirm.compare/ has announced the launch of its new advanced comparison engine, offering futures traders a faster, more

Headlines: What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? The US jobs report will be the main event to end the week US futures keep more pensive awaiting jobs data Japanese yen sharply higher on suspected intervention, speculators running for the exit? Quick fall in USD/JPY as we get to the handover from

The Japanese yen has risen sharply across the board, especially against the US dollar, in a suspected intervention. Earlier in the session, we got a report citing sources saying that Japanese officials will stop signalling intervention risks and start focusing on targeting speculators. This led to a rally in the Japanese yen as traders started

Yesterday, the gold buyers pushed the price above the 100 and 200 hour MAs. I wrote about it in a post outlining the bullish tilt: I ended that post saying the following: “If buyers can defend that support and extend the rally above today’s high at $4,115.67, it could trigger another wave of short covering

The initial reaction was to the downside after the we can expected US jobs report. However we are seeing some clawback of the declines in the greenback. In the video above I take a look at the technical levels in play for the USDCHF, USDCAD, USDJPY and EURUSD after jobs report. What levels are in

New financial channels that comply with laws and regulations are changing the way individual investors trade across markets. As the integration of digital assets and traditional financial markets accelerates, an increasing number of investors are seeking unified, automated solutions for cross-market trading and management. MoneySimpler has launched a free AI trading bot, providing users with

There are so many things to like about the US economy but this is an ugly chart. US labor force participation fell another 0.3 percentage points in June to 61.5% and excluding the pandemic, is now at the lowest since 1976, when women still hadn’t fully entered the labor force. For some perspective, if participation

Data via Stats NZ. Number of new dwelling consents approved in New Zealand fell 4% m/m in May 2026 rose 20.6% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Gold has struggled badly since the start of the Iran war but it’s showing some signs of life today as it attempts to rebound above $4000. That big psychological levels was broken several times in the past week but with little follow through. That might indicate that buyers are adding at that level. If so,

Sector Overview Today’s stock market showcases a mixed bag of sector performances with significant movements shaping investor sentiment. The technology sector witnessed contrasting fortunes, as Apple Inc. (AAPL) soared by an impressive 3.69%, showcasing strong investor confidence, potentially tied to recent announcements or positive quarterly reports. However, other tech players like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Intervention rumours on this move. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

CPI +0.5% vs +0.5% y/y expected Prior +0.6% Core CPI +0.3% y/y Prior +0.3% Swiss headline annual inflation nudges down slightly in June to 0.5%, with the monthly estimate coming in flat when compared to May. As for core annual inflation, that remains unchanged in June at 0.3%. As such, the overall outlook is pretty

Personally feels that June rate hike was the appropriate decision Delaying rate hikes would cause excessive decline in the yen currency and hurt households more Expects BOJ to raise interest rates again at the end of the year Then again around the summer of next year before pausing BOJ should continue to raise interest rates

A coordinated retreat from forward guidance across the Fed, ECB, BOE and BOC raises the odds of choppier price action around future policy meetings, since markets will have fewer explicit signals to anchor rate expectations. Traders who have relied on dot plots and guidance language to pre-position ahead of decisions may need to lean more

The turn of the month isn’t working out too well for US stocks, with tech shares coming back under some pressure yesterday again. It was a poor showing in June for big tech, with the Magnificent Seven posting its worst collective month on record. Hyperscalers are being punished as investors are in the show me

Prior was +172K (revised to +129K) Two-month net revision -74K April was +179K Unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.3% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.3% Unrounded unemployment 4.1889% vs 4.296% prior Participation rate 61.5% vs 61.8% prior U6 underemployment rate % vs 8.1% prior Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings +3.5% y/y

Don’t see any signs of lack of economic resiliency, despite above-target inflation That’s also a good sign for U.S. economy Labor market is stabilized Inflation has risen on tariffs, oil price shock Oil prices have come down, hope for relief U.S. monetary policy is slightly restrictive That should help inflation come down There is a

Thailand’s USD 600 Million Asset Freeze Puts Cross-Border FX Settlement Risk in Focus Fintech can be complex and Thailand’s largest asset-freeze dispute is becoming more than a legal story. For investors, FX operators, fintech firms, and regional banks, the case raises a practical question: can ordinary pooled-payment infrastructure become a regulatory risk if enforcement agencies

Prior week initial claims 215K revised to 216K Initial jobless claims for the current week 215K vs 220K estimate 4-week moving average for the initial claims 222K vs 224.5K last week Prior week continuing claims 1.821M Continuing Claims 1.814M vs 1.810M estimate 4 week moving average for continuing claims 1.803M vs 1.792M last week. The

Crude oil futures are settling at $68.58, down $0.92 (-1.32%) on the day. The session low reached $68.03, while the high topped out at $70.19. Today’s decline established a new cycle low, taking prices to their weakest level since February 27, the day before the Iran conflict began. For reference, crude settled at $67.28 on

It is one of the steeper falls given the five to ten minute timeframe, as compared to the jittery moves in the past few weeks. However, it is still not entirely clear if this is an intervention push or perhaps just a rate check by Tokyo officials. I would be quite surprised if it was

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been supported since the last FOMC decision but as the hawkish repricing reached a near-term peak, the momentum waned as traders shifted their focus to the key US data. Right now, the market is pricing in a 29% chance of a rate hike in July, which rises to

It’s a rare non-farm payrolls Thursday with US markets closed for July 4 tomorrow. I don’t think the headline itself is a big event. The consensus is 110K and the market might be a touch below that after yesterday’s ADP but even a big miss to the downside would be brushed aside after the past

The US jobs report will be released a day early ahead of the 4th of July long holiday weekend starting on Friday. US markets and government offices will be closed tomorrow. The expectations are for: Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% last Non Farm Payroll 110K vs 172K last Private Payroll 110K vs 120K last Average

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. prior close 6.7880 Injects 288.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil prices dropped to a four month low following Trump’s comments downplaying the risk of renewed conflict, with analysts cutting price forecasts for the first time since the war began. The unresolved status of the Strait of Hormuz remains the key swing factor for freight and energy markets, given the waterway’s outsized role in global

Accelerating inflation strengthens the case for a Bank of Korea hike at the July 16 meeting, with two board members already dissenting in favour of a move in May and roughly two thirds of economists surveyed expecting at least one hike by September. A weaker won compounding imported price pressure adds a currency dimension to

Equity markets have already run hard on the back of the US profit cycle and AI driven demand, leaving strategists warning that valuations offer fewer bargains than earlier in the cycle. Bond markets are reflecting the inflation side of the story, with long end yields climbing across developed markets as investors price in central banks

The move underscores how severely the AI driven memory crunch is reshaping supply chains for consumer electronics makers, with Apple’s willingness to engage blacklisted suppliers signalling just how constrained alternatives have become. Any formal agreement carries material regulatory risk, given the prospect of Washington escalating CXMT and YMTC onto the stricter Commerce Department Entity List,

Australia Trade data for May 2026. Just the data in this post. Trade Balance -AUD3018mn expected $2175mn, prior $1791mn Exports -6.9% m/m prior +7.2% Imports +2.6%% m/m prior +0.8% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There are just a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are all for EUR/USD and layered between 1.1350 through to the 1.1400 level. The ones at the figure level will be of more interest, as they have been in recent days as well. But considering the

The major US stock indices are closing lower. The Dow was the last of the major indices to move into negative territory in the last minutes of trading but only by -0.02% The gainers in the Dow 30 were led by Nike (NKE): +5.07% — Closed at $43.13 (+2.08) Salesforce (CRM): +4.25% — Closed at

While Aussie trade balance is marked in red its not really too much of a high priority item. Nothing on the calendar for the session here is likely to much financial markets too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Rate markets have already pared back conviction on a July move, with hike odds slipping from above 80% a week ago to a range now clustering around the high 60s to 70%. The retreat in crude toward the high USD60s a barrel, down sharply from the roughly USD101 assumed in the RBNZ’s May projections, is

More on this: Trump earned $1.4bn from crypto in 2026 as most token holders sit at a loss US payrolls preview: June NFP seen slowing sharply to 110k after May’s surge Bank of Korea official says Bank has capacity to take steps on the weak won Australia’s trade blows out to big deficit vs. surplus

Gold buyers are beginning to push back, but they still have work to do before wresting control from the sellers. Since peaking near $4,890.96 on April 17, gold has been in a steady downtrend, with corrective moves along the way. The decline pushed the price below both its 100-day (currently at $4667.04) and 200-day moving

The shift toward unsignalled intervention raises the cost of holding short yen positions, since traders can no longer rely on jawboning to unwind ahead of MOF action. That heightens two-way risk for USD/JPY around any local data surprise or Fed repricing, with Thursday’s US payrolls seen as a key swing factor given hopes a soft

A little jawboning to try to prop up KRW This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

CBA’s Global Economic & Markets Research team flagged the report poses upside risks to USD/JPY, arguing another upside surprise would likely prompt markets to reassess the US rate outlook further, potentially pushing the pair toward 165 and testing Japanese authorities’ resolve to defend the yen. A weak print, by contrast, would support the case that

UBS expects AI-related capex to approach USD 1 trillion next year, arguing capacity constraints across the AI supply chain support further gains in AI-linked equities even as concerns about capex sustainability persist. The bank sees a broadening rally as cyclical sectors catch up, aided by easing energy costs and improved supply visibility as Strait of

The disclosure adds a political risk dimension to pending US crypto legislation, with ethics provisions barring officials from profiting off regulation they oversee now a harder sticking point for Senate negotiators needing 60 votes to advance the bill. Broader sentiment toward Trump-linked tokens could stay weak given roughly two-thirds of memecoin holders and 85% of

US stocks close lower. Midday rise in the Nasdaq fizzles Crude oil futures settle at $68.58.Lowest settle going back to the start of the Iran War. USDMCA: US did not agree to renew USMCA in current form. U.S.-Iran talks focus on Hormuz as toll dispute threatens nuclear deal Atlanta Fed GDPNow tumbles to 1.2% from

The Mexican economy minister is speaking more about the USMCA news Mexico wants to address US concerns on foreign independence. Says he doesn’t see a substantial difference in between Mexico, US, and Canada that cannot be resolved. Says he proposed to US to reduce section 232 on steel and aluminum, coordinate regional level. It will

Regional equities here getting sold heavily. Equites getting hit. South Korea Kospi dumped 6%. Japan’s Nikkei down more than 2.5% Posting this as background. – Record outflows from South Korea and Taiwan reflect index concentration risk rather than a broad risk-off shift, with long-only funds trimming winners to stay within diversification limits rather than exiting

Rate spread dynamics are reasserting themselves as the dominant EUR/USD driver now that Middle East risk premium has largely unwound from oil prices. A narrowing gap between US and European yield expectations, as Fed hike pricing fades faster than ECB pricing, points to scope for the pair to grind higher through 2026 and into 2027.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that SpaceX has developed a prototype AI devise to investors. They reportedly showed some investors ahead of the IPO back in June. Prototype unveiled: SpaceX has reportedly showed select investors a prototype of a slim, handset-like AI device ahead of its anticipated IPO back in June Not yet a

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 tumbled to 1.2% from 2.5% last. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2026 is 1.2 percent on July 1, down from 2.5 percent on June 25. After recent releases from the US

Meetings involving U.S., Iranian, and Qatari technical teams have started following discussions between U.S. envoys and Qatari leaders. Doha talks underway: U.S. and Iranian negotiators resumed talks in Doha, with the primary focus on the future management of the Strait of Hormuz. Toll dispute at center: Iran wants to impose transit fees on ships after

ECB’s Lagerde: Had perfect monetary policy Outlook to raise rates if I have one regret is is that I was bound by for guidance in the past. Looked at inflation outlook with risks. Risks are more broadly balanced than a few weeks ago. We are not in a stagflation environment We are not going to

Sector Overview The US stock market today presents a vivid landscape of contrasts. Technology stocks show a mixed performance, with semiconductor companies experiencing notable losses. Micron Technology (MU) leads the downturn with a significant 7.07% decline, followed closely by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) which fell by 5.47% and 4.16% respectively. Conversely, the

Fox’s Edward Lawrence is reporting that Pres. Trump has decided not to renew the USMCA opting instead to making individual deals with Canada and Mexico that last 10 years In other news: Based on the financial disclosure released this week, President Donald Trump reported more than $2.2 billion in income for calendar year 2025. That

The broader US indices are erasing their earlier declines. The Dow industrial average is now trading up 206 points or 0.40%. The S&P index is up 16.45 points or 0.22%. The NASDAQ index is trading unchanged. At session lows today: Dow industrial average was down -292.02 points S&P index was a down -49.72 points NASDAQ

As per earlier reports, US official says that the US did not agree to renew USMCA in current form United States will continue to engage with Mexico and Canada to address agreements shortcomings and heartrate deficits with these countries. Agreement remains “in force” pending resolution of these issues or until agreements termination USTR will continue

The USDCAD is modestly higher on the day, but has surrendered most of its earlier gains during the North American session as Canadian markets remain closed for the Canada Day holiday. From a technical perspective, the pair at the start of the day found support after dipping below its converging 100- and 200-hour moving averages

No need to rush into any decision amid latest decline in oil prices It would be prudent not to rush into policy action Lower energy prices should quickly feed into lower price expectations and keep wage pressures down ECB can wait until next projections to decide if more tightening is needed Only case for more

Preliminary 55.7 Manufacturing PMI xx.x vs 55.7 preliminary Prior month 55.1 For the full report CLICK HERE Details from S&P global US manufacturing expanded for the 11th consecutive month, but growth slowed to a three-month low. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 in June vs. 55.1 in May (above 50 signals expansion). Demand & Production Output

To to watch the forum of central banking click on the link above. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh is speaking on Wednesday Canada, Mexico push to save USMCA as US holds out for changes Korea exports surge on AI chip boom as shares slide on profit-taking RatingDog PMI caps China’s strongest quarter for manufacturing since 2020 China S&P Global/Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI, June 2026: 51.7 (expected 51.6, prior 51.8)

Prior 54.0 Last month was highest reading since May 2022 New orders 56.0 vs 56.8 prior Production 52.2 vs 54.3 prior Employment 49.7 vs 48.6 prior Prices paid 73.0 vs 78.0 estimate and 82.1 prior New export orders 48.5 vs 50.6 prior imports 52.9 versus 53.0 prior. Inventories 42.3 versus 42.7 prior. Supply deliveries 57.4

ECB’s Kassik: One more rate hike remains a reasonable expectation Expects to have a clearer picture on wage developments by the autumn. Believes the conflict is unlikely to have a lasting impact on oil prices. Continues to see one additional ECB rate hike as a reasonable expectation. At the central banker forum in Sintra earlier

Manufacturing PMI 54.3 vs 56.5 expected Prior 57.3 Swiss manufacturing activity growth eases in June as both production and new orders also drop on the month. Of note, the latter dropped noticeably to 53.5 – down from 59.4 in May. The only bit of good news is that both purchase prices and suppliers’ delivery times

Would need stronger second-round effects to justify further tightening Any inflation surprise before the July meeting more likely on the downside Oil prices could fall below pre-war levels Most oil production capacity should be restored within a quarter if conflict is over One hike could be enough if shock fades before significant second-round effects More

Meta is upsetting the AI apple cart say that they are building a cloud business to sell excess AI compute. The announcement with the word “excess” has shares of AI companies moving lower: Nvidia trading lower by $3.54 or -1.77%. Micron is trading down $71 or -6.3% Marvell technologies are trading down -4.16% Broadcom shares

Bailey’s comments reinforce a patient BoE reaction function, leaning against any near-term case for a rate move despite inflation set to climb to 3.2% later this year. His framing that the bond market has already done some of the tightening work, via higher market rates since the Iran war began, suggests the MPC sees current

MUFG’s read is that verbal intervention risk is rising but not yet at the threshold that has historically preceded actual yen-buying operations, which argues against positioning for imminent BoJ or MoF action even as USD/JPY pushes into fresh multi-year territory. The bank’s point that the April/May intervention only briefly dented the broader uptrend is the

China S&P Global/Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI, June 2026: 51.7 expected 51.6, prior 51.8 Rating Dog is a Shenzhen credit-research firm. I’ll have more to come on this separately, just the data for now… ADDED, more here now: RatingDog PMI caps China’s strongest quarter for manufacturing since 2020 On Tuesday we had official PMIs from China:

Prior month 0.4% revised lower to 0.3% Construction spending for the month of May 0.1% US Construction Spending (May 2026) Total construction spending: $2.210 trillion annualized +0.1% m/m (vs. revised $2.207 trillion in April) -1.5% y/y (vs. $2.244 trillion in May 2025) Year-to-date (Jan–May): $858.4 billion, -2.7% from $882.2 billion in the same period of

A third straight month above 50 with the index at a five-month high gives the headline print a constructive look, but the underlying mix is softer than the number suggests, with output falling for a fifth consecutive month and new orders still contracting. The sharp easing in input and output price inflation from May is

Every trading day begins with new information. Economic releases, geopolitical developments, central bank statements, and changes in market sentiment can all influence price movements within minutes. For this reason, successful traders rarely rely on instinct alone. Instead, they begin with a structured daily market analysis before making any trading decision. Daily market analysis is not

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been supported since the last FOMC decision as the more hawkish than expected dot plot led to a quick repricing in interest rate expectations with traders increasing rate hike probabilities. We saw some minor hawkish repricing yesterday as the total tightening expected by year-end rose to 37 bps

The GBPUSD has experienced a two-way trading session today. After rallying into the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the June 15 high at 1.32629 yesterday, the pair initially rotated back down, extending down to test the 200-hour moving average (the green line on the chart above). Buyers leaned against that key risk-defining level, sparking

House price index 0.0% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior -0.6% House price index +2.2% vs +2.4% y/y expected Prior +1.7% The latest snapshot from Nationwide shows that the annual house price growth in the UK moved up a little in June, but arguably owes to base effects for the most part. That as the monthly

Trump is speaking and says: Praises the new Boeing Air Force One (we are all happy for him). Praises Qatar On Iran, says very good meeting and gettng along very well. Denuclearization of Iran is moving along well Praise oil prices moving lower and stocks moving higher We are building a lot of car plants

Crude oil inventories -3.775 million versus -4.466 million estimate. Gasoline -2.333 million vs -1.021 million estimate. Distillates +2.483 million vs -0.513 million estimate. Crude oil futures were trading at $68.80 prior to the report. The low prices today reached $68.22. The closing level on the day before the Iran war started was at $67.28. The

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. As we move past month-end and quarter-end, trading sentiment will now focus back on the usual suspects again. And the lack of major expiries today will help with that transition, with dollar sentiment and the broader risk

The mood music at the start of the year is certainly very much different to what it is now as we approach the second half of the year. In January, everyone and anyone was raving about precious metals and we looked on course for more Fed rate cuts with US president Trump set to get

There will be watchful eyes on Fed chair Warsh and what he has to say today, but he won’t be the only major central bank speaker on the agenda. Warsh is very much in focus with this appearance being just two weeks after his first press conference in the June FOMC meeting. At the time,

Manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 51.0 expected Prior 51.2 That’s a notable miss on estimates as Spanish manufacturing activity slumped to a marginal contraction in June. A steeper drop in new orders and lower output underpins the deterioration of manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, high prices and unwinding of client stockpiling leads to lower sales. The Middle East

Gold has not only lost all the gains it made earlier this year, but has now fallen more than 7% below its starting level. Why? The first blow to the precious metal came from a technical factor — specifically, the CME Group’s increase in margin requirements for COMEX gold futures in early February, due to

The headlines note that Qatar and Pakistan are serving as mediators for the “indirect” technical talks at the moment. Adding that the session is involving chief negotiators and specialist teams from both the US and Iran. Just to add on that, the source says that Kushner and Witkoff met with Qatar’s prime minister yesterday to

CPI +2.8% vs +3.0% y/y expected Prior +3.2% Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.6% There are quite a number of positives to take away from the report here. However, the bottom line is that the numbers will not see the ECB rush into any decision going into the summer break. Inflation data

Australia May 2026 Building Permits -1.1% m/m, 5 falls in the past 6 months expected 1.0%, prior –3.4% Building Permits 5.3% y/y expected 9.5%, prior 10.2% Private House Approvals 2.8% m/m expected –0.2%, prior –1.0% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The scale of the export beat, growth well above the strongest forecasts on the board, reinforces the structural AI-chip demand story underpinning Korean equities, even as the KOSPI’s pullback on the day looks like classic profit-taking after an exceptional quarter rather than any change in the fundamental picture. Foreign investors sold a record amount of

Crude oil is settling down $1.25, or 1.77%, at $69.50. The high price for the day reached $71.60, while the low has been extended to $69.22 in the current hour. Recall that on Monday and Tuesday, buyers pushed crude higher to test the falling 100-hour moving average. Although the price briefly traded above that level

USD/JPY at 162.75 pushes well past the levels that triggered Japan’s last intervention, keeping MoF action risk elevated into a period traders see as tactically favourable given Friday’s thinner US holiday liquidity. The bigger driver remains the US side of the pair, with Treasury yields jumping overnight and Fed hike odds for September surging to

Japan’s intervention since April has helped to slow yen decline against the dollar Have not received nay objections from the US against Japan’s intervention since then Japan-US currency coordination remains close Sure, sure. They still have put up a facade to maintain that illusion that they are well in control of the situation. But considering

A declared non-extension starts a six-year review clock rather than triggering any immediate change to trade flows, so the near-term market impact is limited, but it keeps a long tail of uncertainty over North American auto and steel supply chains that has already been compounded by existing US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican autos, parts,

RBC Economics highlights a firmer start to Q2 in today’s Canadian GDP report after a small contraction in the first quarter of the year. Canadian economic activity increased 0.5% in April, slightly higher than Statistics Canada’s 0.4% advance estimate, which was also the consensus view. The May advance reading was +0.1%. RBC writes: As expected,

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will participate in a panel discussion with the President of European Central Bank Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. 1200 GMT 0800 US Eastern time A moderated ‘policy panel’ / Q&A. The

Vance says Trump is ready to drop bombs again more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The scale of the disclosed crypto income, more than a billion dollars combined across the meme coin and World Liberty Financial, will keep political risk firmly attached to Trump-linked tokens, with renewed scrutiny likely from Democrats and ethics watchdogs over conflicts of interest tied to a sitting president’s personal stake in crypto policy. For traders

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. prior close 6.7880 Injects 100bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

WThe broader US stock indices are closing the 2nd quarter with solid gains. The move higher comes after the decline in the 1st quarter. Looking at the major indices, the 2nd quarter ended with the : Dow Industrial Average up 12.91% S&P up 14.87% Nasdaq up 21.41% Russell 2000 up 21.15% Looking at the YTD,

A 51.7 reading, even easing slightly from May, still confirms China’s strongest manufacturing quarter since Q4 2020, a constructive signal for risk sentiment tied to Chinese growth even as the headline print itself eased to a three-month low. The combination of slowing input cost inflation and accelerating job creation is a favourable mix for margins

Commerce is expected to lift export controls on Fable tonight, a senior White House official tells me – Politico. – Background to this is the recent U.S. government order to AI company Anthropic to suspend global access to its frontier models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, for all non-U.S. users This article was written by

A 54.8 print marks a sixth straight month of expansion and the best quarterly run since Q1 2014, a headline strong enough to support yen-positive sentiment on the growth side, though the detail complicates a clean read. New order growth at its fastest since January 2022 is being partly driven by clients stockpiling against war-related

JOLTs job openings 7.594M vs 7.300M estimate US June consumer confidence 91.2 vs 94.8 expected Canada April GDP +0.5% vs +0.4% expected US April CaseShiller 20-city house price index +1.1% y/y vs +0.9% expected FHFA monthly home price index for April -0.1% versus a revised 0.2% last month Iran’s Ghalibaf: We won’t enter any more

Via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -4.1 mn barrels Distillates +2.9 mn bbls Gasoline -2.1 mn — This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

All markets seem to have moved on from the Iran war but here are some fresh comments: Current meetings held by Iran are aimed at fulfilling MOU commitments We will not enter further negotiations until conditions in MOU are met WTI crude is down $1.02 to $69.73 today. This article was written by Adam Button

What a half-year for memory. The theme of this group writes itself: nine of the ten are semis/hardware, and the leaders are a memory-and-storage cohort. SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital and Seagate are all riding the NAND/HBM/DRAM shortage colliding with AI data-center demand — SanDisk had already nearly +570% in 2025 as a pure-play flash name

Gold consolidates around the 4,000 level as traders await the US NFP and CPI reports ECB’s Wunsch: We might need another rate hike but not necessarily in July Italy inflation only marginally lower in June as services inflation cool a little BOJ policymaker Sato says short-term volatile moves in exchange rate are undesirable ECB policymaker

The USD is mostly higher with the USDJPY up 0.27% and breaking through the 40 year ceiling near 161.95-97. The price moved above the key ceiling with more momentum in the Asian Pacific session and quickly extended to a high or 162.396. The price corrected lower but stayed above the 161.95-97 area at 162.04. The

Buyers are pushing the broader U.S. stock indices higher today. The S&P 500 is up about 35 points, or 0.47%, at 7,475.50, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is gaining 250 points, or 0.97%, to 26,066. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 has now moved above its 200-hour moving average at 7,463.23 (green line on the

Prior month 7.585M Details from the Bureau of Labor statistics 9BLS): Job Openings (JOLTS): Job openings were unchanged at 7.6 million in May. The job openings rate held steady at 4.6%. Openings increased in wholesale trade by 71,000. Hiring Activity: Hires were unchanged at 5.2 million. The hires rate remained at 3.3%. Hiring increased in

CPI +3.0% vs +3.1% y/y expected Prior +3.2% HICP +3.1% vs +3.2% y/y expected Prior +3.2% The preliminary numbers show just a marginal drop in headline annual inflation in Italy for the month of June. And that’s also reflected in core prices as well, with core annual inflation dropping to 1.6% in June from 1.7%

The AUDUSD moved lower earlier in the Asia-Pacific session today, but found willing buyers just ahead of the rising 200-day moving average at 0.68599. The session low reached 0.68655, and the pair’s inability to break below that key support level gave buyers the green light to push prices higher. That rebound gathered momentum during the

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a strong performance in the technology sector, which is primarily driving overall market gains. Multinational tech giants like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have posted significant gains of 1.56% and 3.45% respectively, with Intel (INTC) surging by 4.67%. This points to a bullish sentiment surrounding the

The USDJPY has broken above the 2024 high near 161.95/97 (depending on the data source), and the breakout has been accompanied by strong buying momentum. The pair initially surged to 162.399 before rotating lower, but buyers stepped in at 162.04—just 7 to 9 pips above the breakout area—confirming the old resistance level as new support.

Brazil scored in the 95th minute to beat Japan 2-1. At about the same time, the USDJPY is ticking to a high or 161.97 which continues to push against the highest level since the end of 1986. So far the market is not seeing stops being triggered. It would take a move below the 161.80

The bounce in new export orders to 50.1 offers some near-term support for China-exposed cyclical assets, but ING’s call for second-quarter GDP to slow to 4.6% year-on-year signals the headline PMI beat is unlikely to shift the broader growth narrative. The ex-factory price index slipping back into contraction at 48.2 is the more market-sensitive data

Here are all the state readings released around the same time: Bavaria CPI +2.5% vs +2.6% y/y prior Saxony CPI +2.5% vs +2.7% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.1% vs +2.4% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.1% vs +2.4% y/y prior This should be some added comfort for the ECB as with the French

NPR reported (but has since retracted), a story that arch conservative Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito is retiring. Aside from his votes, Alito might be most famous for flying the flag outside his house upside down after Trump lost the election to Biden. He later blamed it on his wife. His retirement would give Trump

White House: Trump authorizes the temporary suspension of certain duties on phosphate fertilizer imported from Morocco This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was 93.1 (revised to 90.6) The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index nudged up 0.6 points to 91.2 in June, but only because of a big downward revision to the May reading. Expectations did the heavy lifting, jumping 3.0 points to 74.4 on better readings for business conditions and incomes. The driver is obvious: oil

It’s important that energy prices are not much higher than pre-war The market is pricing in 26 bps in rate hikes by next February so they’re certainly not being rushed by the market to make any moves. Cable is up 15 pips to 1.3271 today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF climbed to its highest level since July 2025 last week, but the rally stalled and the pair has since rotated lower. On Friday, the decline pushed the price back below its 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.8098, turning that key technical level into resistance. Since then, buyers and sellers have been battling for

Inflation is still too high We may need to consider rate hikes Core inflation is elevated, it’s not just an energy story Will go into meeting with an open mind, won’t prejudge outcomes Sees a broad based story for high inflation Core services inflation has been high There is concern about what high rates could

Prior -0.3% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Inflation will stay significantly above target Too early to make a call on rate hikes The situation in the Middle East is still very opaque Retreat on energy price was a surprise Not concerned about debt markets ECB’s Nagel warned that Eurozone inflation could remain significantly above the ECB’s 2% target, even as recent declines

CPI +1.8% vs +2.1% y/y expected Prior +2.4% HICP +2.0% vs +2.3% y/y expected Prior +2.8% Well, it’s good news all around as French headline annual inflation is indicated to fall back below 2% in June. That should at least help to ease some of the pressure on the ECB to want to act in

Unemployment change -1k vs 7k expected Prior -12k Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expected Prior 6.3% German unemployment unexpectedly fell in June with the jobless figure dropping by 1k against expectations of a 7k increase. That brings the overall number of unemployed persons to 2.984 million now. As for the jobless rate, that remains steady

Energy price retreat will have an impact on inflation Europe’s structural growth numbers are still pretty low AI is inflationary in the short term ECB’s Sleijpen said the recent retreat in energy prices could provide welcome relief for Eurozone inflation but structural weakness in Europe’s economy and the emerging inflationary effects of artificial intelligence remain

Prior +2.6% HICP +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.7% Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs 2.5% prior Full report here The inflation rate in Germany is expected to be +2.3% in June 2026. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that consumer prices decreased by 0.3% on May

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level. It is a significantly large one that carries over the same kind of price magnet from yesterday at the figure level. As such, price action in the session ahead might be

ING: China’s domestic demand engine sputtering despite stronger headline PMI BOJ board tilts more hawkish on paper, but dovish dissent count could double China factory PMI beats forecast at 50.3 as AI-linked exports drive expansion RBA stood ready to hike again as minutes flag excess demand, weak housing China June Manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expected 50.1)

Weak yen gives boost to exports but also pushes up import prices, leading to lower household income FX moves should be determined in a manner that is reflective of fundamentals Short-term volatile moves are undesirable Will not comment on specific FX levels Did not get any specific instruction from Takaichi on policy BOJ independence is

The softer-than-expected BRC print will provide modest comfort to Bank of England rate-setters looking for evidence that consumer price pressures are easing, though the data covers a narrower basket than the official CPI measure and is unlikely to move the needle materially on rate expectations alone. The divergence between firm-level trading optimism and weaker economy-wide

The oil market has moved quite a bit since the last decision Let’s see how lower oil percolates across the economy There has been some improvement in confidence but not to pre-war levels There hasn’t been fast rethinking of investors and consumers Oil price curve sees elevated levels in years ahead suggesting cost for economy

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The appointment raises the prospect of two dissenting votes against future rate hike proposals, a structural shift that could slow the pace of BOJ tightening even as the broader nine-member board retains a hawkish lean. Yen sensitivity to BOJ rhetoric is likely to increase ahead of Sato’s July 30-31 policy debut, with her 5pm press

Sato was a law professor at Aoyama Gakuin University and fairly new to the policy board. Earlier: Former BOJ insider flags potential inflation running at 3% as case for early hike builds This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The big rally in Tesla shares today makes me skeptical of the entire market move being based on quarter-end position squaring rather than fundamentals. It’s up a whopping 8% to lead megacap tech and is a big contributor to the 2% rise in the Nasdaq. Admittedly, though, I don’t understand anything to do with Tesla,

A pre-December BOJ rate hike would accelerate yen appreciation pressure and tighten the interest rate differential with the Federal Reserve and ECB at a time when those central banks are themselves navigating uncertain policy paths. Japanese government bond yields would face upward pressure across the curve if the market begins to price an earlier move,

The major U.S. stock indices finished the day near their session highs, with the broader market posting solid gains and two indices reaching record closes. The S&P 500 rose 86.36 points, or 1.17%, to 7,440.40. The advance pushed the index back above its 100-hour moving average at 7,420.76, a positive technical development. However, the index

Q1 final GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% q/q prelim Prior (Q4 2025) +0.2% This matches up with the initial estimate, with UK economic growth being rather resilient in the first quarter of the year. In terms of annual growth, UK GDP is seen up 0.9% compared to the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, real GDP per

The dollar’s breakout above its year-long trading range has reactivated positioning momentum, with IMM long-USD exposure still well below early-year peaks, leaving room for further near-term accumulation. Options flow is signalling stronger conviction for USD gains against the euro than the yen. The sharp reversal in Brent, which has now fully unwound its conflict-driven rally,

Gold Analysis Today: Gold Futures Test the 3,989-3,995 Decision Zone as the 4,000 Breakdown Remains in Focus Gold futures remain under pressure today after spending meaningful time below the major 4,000 psychological level. That keeps the short-term gold analysis slightly bearish, but not one-sided. The key decision zone for today is 3,989-3,995. A sustained recovery

Funnily enough, this was on the charts the alst time yen was this weak. Where is the (intervention) Danger zone? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.2% This represents another solid mark up in German import prices, with the annual estimate even jumping to +6.8% compared to the same month last year. For some context, this was the strongest year-on-year increase since December 2022. Once again, it’s all about the US-Iran conflict as the war is impacting global energy markets

Japan Industrial Production May -1.7% y/y prior 2.0% 0.5% m/m expected 1.1%, prior 0.5% Japanese manufacturers see June output +3.7% m/m (prior forecast: -0.4%) see July output 0.0% m/m This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The June RBA meeting was a pause after three rate hikes earlier in this year. We’ll get the minutes of that meeting today, these will be scoured for hints of what’s ahead. The August meeting is live, but I can’t see another hike after three altready. After these its over the China to official PMIs

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara: Won’t comment on forex level Always ready to take necessary action on forex Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara speaking at a regularly scheduled press conference, Everyone ignofrinng him, USD/JPY trades to 162.40. Yen weakest since 1986. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan data: May Unemployment Rate 2.5% expected and prior both 2.5% Jobs/applications ratio 1.17 prior 1.17 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran’s president on X: Understanding is a bilateral matter, if the U.S. side adheres to the MOU, we will also fulfill our obligations Our approach to ‘unreasonable boasting and unfounded threats’ is to rely on rationality and human dignity in decision-making and ‘decisive and fearless defense’ when taking action Meanwhile, where we at? In brief:

The report says that recent inflation developments has further taken pressure off the ECB for a move in July, although there is still a case to be made if the June numbers are “nasty”. According to the sources cited, all with direct knowledge of the situation, policymakers were surprised by how quickly oil prices have

Supreme Court blocks Trump from removing Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Trump says he will “take appropriate action immediately” on Cook SMCI offices raided in Taiwan on chip smuggling probe The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) falls to the lowest level since 1983 The US freight market has suddenly gone into high gear Markets:

Super Micro computers tend to be in the news for all the wrong reasons more than any other company. There is a news story being reported that their offices in Taiwan are raided on a chip smuggling probe. The shares are trading down $1.75 or -5.7% at $28.90. The low price just reach $27.82 before

After a light bounce towards the end of last week, the pressure is continuing this week for precious metals. Gold is down by 1.4% on the day to $4,030 levels now, with eyes on another potential test of the $4,000 mark incoming. Despite the US and Iran agreeing to a memorandum of understanding, the situation

Mortgage approvals 56.205k vs 62.900k expected Prior 65.945k; revised to 66.034k UK mortgage approvals fell off by quite a bit last month, with net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals also seen decreasing to £2.9 billion in May – down from £4.4 billion in April. This was below the previous 6-month average of £5.1 billion,

The AUDUSD pushed higher during the European session, extending its rally to the falling 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.6900 (blue line on the chart above). Sellers stepped in at that level, which also coincided with the underside of a former channel trendline, reinforcing the bearish bias and keeping sellers in control. The pair has

Trump says — rightly — that the Cook case was generally sent back on a procedural basis. The news here is that it appears he will try again to fire her: The Cook Lawsuit, having to do with her suitability in sitting on the Board of the Federal Reserve, was sent back by the Supreme

The sectoral split in China’s profit data has direct commodity read-throughs: upstream outperformance in non-ferrous metals and electronics materials reflects sustained input cost pressure that has yet to fully resolve downstream, while the 19.8% drop in automaker profits despite strong export volumes signals that margin compression at the factory floor is acute. The Hormuz link

Big cap tech is back in style today, though it’s not a uniform move. It’s being led by a handful of names making big gains: GOOG +4.5% AMZN +3.9% TSLA +5.8% What’s interesting is that other names have struggled. Microsoft was higher earlier but is now down 0.6% and Apple is 0.9% lower. It seems

The scale of the announcement, if investments materialise at the reported $651 billion level over the coming years, represents a structural demand signal for the global semiconductor supply chain, advanced manufacturing equipment and AI infrastructure buildout. SK Hynix in particular warrants close attention given its pivotal role in high-bandwidth memory supply for AI accelerators; any

Economic confidence 95.0 vs 94.0 expected Prior 93.5; revised to 93.7 Industrial confidence -7.7 vs -7.2 expected Prior -8.0; revised to -7.9 Services confidence 3.2 vs 3.0 expected Prior 2.2; revised to 2.6 That reflects a decent bounce in economic sentiment in the euro area, as per the survey by the European Commission. The good

Lisa Cook will remain as a Fed Governor. US President Donald Trump had tried to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from her role over a primary residence disclosure on a mortgage application. The Governor claimed it was a clerical error and that she was fired without due process. Cook’s term on the Board of

The U.S. dollar is mixed to start the week, with the EURUSD and GBPUSD moving higher while the USDJPY is also edging up. In today’s video, I take a look at the technical picture driving the major pairs. Spoiler alert: The EURUSD is trapped between its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, leaving the pair in

A confirmed mutual stand-down and the announcement of Tuesday’s Doha talks will offer short-term relief to oil markets, but the underlying architecture remains precarious: the military hotline agreed in Switzerland still was not operational as of Saturday, and ships transiting the strait were already being subjected to renewed Iranian coordination demands. With US equity and

Shares of Nvidia and Micron are both trading lower today, putting key technical support levels under pressure. For Nvidia, the stock opened higher and tested its 100-day moving average at $196.36, reaching a session high of $196.18—just shy of that key resistance level. Buyers leaned and quickly turned into sellers, driving the stock lower toward

The one-third of surveyed institutions planning to add gold represents a demand signal with genuine price implications: central banks and sovereign wealth funds operate at a scale where even incremental allocation shifts move the market, and the stated intention to increase holdings comes on top of two years of already elevated official sector buying. The

Amazon stock technical analysis shows the previous failed breakout but puts AMZN back at a key weekly support after a 19% correction from the all-time-high Amazon’s weekly chart is sending a clear message: the recent push to new highs did not hold. The all time high was reached on 04 May, 2026, which is 40

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been supported since the last FOMC decision as the more hawkish than expected dot plot led to a quick repricing in interest rate expectations with traders increasing rate hike probabilities. There is now 32 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There’s a 29% chance of a hike

The immediate market read is contained by the ministry’s explicit statement that normal bilateral trade is unaffected, which limits the near-term spillover to the broader China-Japan commercial relationship. However, the targeting of Mitsubishi, Komatsu and Fujitsu subsidiaries introduces a template risk: if Beijing is willing to place industrial conglomerate units on a dual-use blacklist today,

The USDCHF trended higher for most of June, with only a modest correction around mid-month that saw the pair test its 200-day moving average before turning back to the upside. The rally gained momentum following the June 17 FOMC rate decision, which helped propel the pair from around 0.7909 to a high of 0.81389 last

Stock Market Snapshot Today’s stock market image paints a vivid picture of sector dynamics, prominently showcasing a surge in consumer cyclical stocks, with Amazon and Tesla leading the charge. Meanwhile, the semiconductor sector faces notable challenges. 📈 Consumer Cyclical Surge: Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) are powering forward with impressive gains of 4.89% and 4.52%

Nasdaq futures analysis today: NQ repair is constructive, but 29,760 still matters Nasdaq futures are showing a mild bullish repair today, but not a confirmed bullish takeover yet. My blended NQ read is +2 / +10, with medium confidence, because the 30-minute chart shows higher value migration and price remains above the key 29,670 area,

It’s going to be a bit of a hectic week, and a holiday-shortened one at that, with US markets closing early on Thursday and then closing on Friday in the run up to Independence Day. As such, that will see a lot of things being crammed together over the next four days for markets. So,

Mon: Japanese Retail Sales (May), Spanish HICP Flash (Jun), Retail Sales (May), EZ Consumer Confidence Final (Jun), US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun) Tue: RBA Minutes (Jun), Japanese Industrial Production (May), Unemployment Rate (May), Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jun), German Retail Sales (May), Import Prices (May), Swedish Retail Sales (May), UK GDP Final (Q1), French

Here is a theme you don’t hear much about but could be a very good sign of a inflection in the US economy. Flatbed data is flashing a cycle turn. Late last year, we were writing about the ongoing recession in freight but it’s steadily and now quickly turned. Flatbed spot prices are up +41%

The Canadian men’s national team has reached the World Cup’s “Sweet 16” — officially the Round of 16. Canada’s 1-0 victory over South Africa on June 28, 2026, secured a place in the knockout stage for the first time in the nation’s history. Oh, Canada. Unfortunately for Canadian dollar bulls, the soccer success hasn’t translated

XTB Institutional, formerly known as X Open Hub, part of XTB Group, was among the exhibitors at iFX EXPO International 2026. This year’s edition marked a special milestone in XTB Institutional’s and X Open Hub’s history as the strengthening its alignment with XTB Group, whose parent company XTB S.A. is listed on the Warsaw Stock

The market spent last week filled with angst over the pricing tug-of-war between memory suppliers and megacap tech spenders. The worries peaked on Thursday when Apple, XBox and Amazon all announced pricing hikes in large part due to memory chip costs. On Friday, we saw a relief rally in the megacap names on the thinking

Full report here BoE’s Pill has defended his recent calls for higher interest rates, warning policymakers against becoming complacent about inflation and the rising cost of living. Pill voted to raise interest rates to 4% at the Bank’s last two Monetary Policy Committee meetings, going against the majority in April and joined by only one

Deutsche says that its month-end rebalancing model points to month-end and quarter-end flows favouring the US dollar, potentially limiting any setback from the highs last week. Their note came out late last week but argues that the dollar does look a little stretched already since the FOMC meeting and calls to fade any further strength

The technical teams are reported to meet in Doha still in order to work on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding. And that comes despite a bit of a hiccup over the weekend as both sides had a bit of a scuffle. For some context, Iran took a shot at a commercial cargo vessel,

Early forex rates are relatively calm despite renewed hostilities in the Gulf: As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A 130k headline that embeds a 40k World Cup distortion implies an underlying trend read closer to 90k, which at the current stage of the Fed’s deliberation on rate timing would register as a meaningful softening signal. The private payrolls forecast of 95k is the number to watch: if it prints near Goldman’s estimate rather

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been supported since the last FOMC decision as the more hawkish than expected dot plot led to a quick repricing in interest rate expectations with traders increasing rate hike probabilities. There is now 32 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There’s a 29% chance of a hike

Schnabel’s remarks confirm the ECB is not treating the Hormuz ceasefire as an inflation off-ramp. Her explicit warning that the strait will reopen only gradually, and that energy costs are already feeding into supply chains and manufacturing pass-through, signals the hiking cycle has further to run regardless of any near-term crude price softness. Euro-area inflation

The print lands as a material upside surprise at a moment when BOJ rate path expectations are acutely sensitive to evidence of sustained domestic demand. A 5.3% year-on-year gain against a 3.2% consensus, combined with an April revision from 1.3% to 2.1% month-on-month, signals that the consumption recovery has more momentum than the median forecast

Monday starts slowly, with no major scheduled economic events for the FX market. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release final GDP q/q data, while Canada will also publish its GDP m/m. In the U.S., the focus will be on the CB consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings figures. Wednesday brings manufacturing PMI releases for the

There are just a couple to take note of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level. It’s not one that ties to any technical significance but could act as a bit of a magnet for price action in the session

The BOJ passage is the most market-sensitive element of this document. The draft’s explicit call for the central bank to align monetary policy decisions with the government’s growth agenda, citing legal coordination provisions, sets up a direct tension with a BOJ that has been gradually normalising rates and whose independence the market has been pricing

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Injects 157.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. Injects 300bn yuan via overnight reverse repos also, did not announce the borrowing cost for the overnight reverse repos. This article

Data due from Japan today. Not likely to move the yen too much, it remains weak. Earlier: Weekend – Hawkish ECB board member calls for further rate hikes despite Hormuz relief (re Schnabel) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock will be speaking over the weekend (text due Tuesday) This article was written by

The renewed exchange of strikes between the US and Iran resurrects the supply disruption premium that had begun unwinding as vessels moved through Hormuz over the prior fortnight. With both sides now publicly accusing the other of breaking the interim accord and the IRGC warning American bases face escalating retaliation, the risk of a full

Bitcoin price analysis: BTC remains in a lower-value reset as $60,750-$61,000 becomes the key repair gate Answer Capsule: Bitcoin spot is still in a bearish lower-value reset after the June 24-25 liquidation. Buyers are showing real absorption near $58,000-$59,750, but BTC has not yet reclaimed $60,750-$61,000 or the stronger $61,750-$62,250 repair zone. My active spot-adjusted

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined a framework aimed at ending hostilities and restoring stability in Lebanon. The proposal attempts to balance Israel’s security concerns with Lebanon’s sovereignty while addressing the longstanding issue of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. Rubio said: The framework establishes a clear and structured process to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty, disarm Hezbollah, and

FedEx reported earnings this week and it’s a company worth watching because freight demand is a great proxy for economic activity. Here is Brie Carere, EVP & Chief Customer Officer: “I was concerned a quarter ago that we maybe would see some demand destruction. That has not at all been the case.” Raj Subramaniam, President

Crude oil futures settled at $69.23, down $2.69 (-3.74%) on the day. For the week, prices fell nearly 8.5%, adding to losses of 10.4% the prior week and 6.6% the week before that. Since peaking at $119.48, crude has now declined 42.6%, underscoring the dramatic reversal in energy prices. Today’s low reached $68.56, putting the

Major stock indices close modestly lower with the Nasdaq leading the way. Rubio: Framework raises hopes for peace, but major obstacles remain Crude oil settles the day/week at $69.23 Hezbollah’s Fadlallah: Cannot enforce Washington agreement unless they go to civil war US, Israel and Lebanon sign trilateral agreement Trump says any European country that implements

The major U.S. stock indices closed modestly lower on Friday, with technology shares again leading the declines. The NASDAQ was the weakest performer, falling 0.24%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.09% and the S&P 500 edged lower by 0.05%. The NASDAQ has now declined in each of the past five trading sessions and

Bitcoin has spent today’s session chopping around the $60,000 level, trading between a low of $58,241 and a high of $60,656. Yesterday’s low of $58,035 was the weakest level since September 17, 2024. From a technical perspective, the recent slide has pushed the price below its 200-week moving average, currently at $62,446. Over the previous

Sector overview Today’s stock market presents a mixed bag, with significant movements across various sectors. Technology is the standout performer, led by Microsoft (MSFT) surging 4.17%. However, the semiconductor industry is experiencing widespread declines, drawing attention to Nvidia (NVDA) which is down 1.18%. Additionally, Broadcom (AVGO) and Micron Technology (MU) show notable losses of 3.01%

Gold is sharply higher today, gaining $54, or 1.35%, to $4,080.67. The metal has traded in a wide range, with a session low of $3,983.21 and a high of $4,096.73. Despite today’s rebound, gold remains lower on the week, down $141.75. At its worst levels this week, the price had plunged $260.36 from the weekly

Trump writes: Numerous European Countries have been discussing the imminent implementation of a Digital Services Tax on American Companies. Some of these Countries are close to actually doing this. Please let this statement serve to represent that any Country that imposes such a Tax will immediately be met with a 100% TARIFF on any and

The broader US stock indices will lower on the day with the NASDAQ index testing a key swing area at session lows. The S&P index fell below a swing area and threatens to tilt the bias more to the downside. However the prices have seen a rebound. In the video above I take a snapshot

It was quite a mixed session yesterday as US stocks got off to a hot start, only for it to quickly come undone after. And through the day, there was volatile trading as the AI push and pull played out. The tech sector saw a massive split between chipmakers and the hyperscalers, with big tech

The USD is mixed with a modest downward bias to start the last trading day of the week. The EURUSD has made a move above the falling 100 hour MA at 1.1398 and bumped up to 1.1412. If the buyers are going to make a run to the 200 hour MA, they need to keep

Oil prices are higher today after the British military said a cargo ship was hit while on UN-approved route through the Strait of Hormuz. It was on a United Nations-approved route and it’s not yet clear what happened but Iran has threatened ships hugging the Oman coastline and making noise about the lack of an

WhatsApp Stock Groups and Pump-and-Dump Risks: What New Investors Must Watch Before Buying a Tiny Stock I wrote about such scams before because my heart really goes out to those poor people lured by their greed and solicited by criminals. A recent described how investors were allegedly pulled into a WhatsApp-based stock promotion scheme involving

The revelations land at a sensitive moment for the prediction market industry, which has positioned itself as a credible real-money signal on political and financial outcomes and attracted significant mainstream attention during the 2024 and 2025 US election cycles. Evidence that Polymarket systematically manufactured the appearance of big wins to recruit users undermines the integrity

The hyperscalers won’t stand for the price gouging. That’s the message in today’s price action in the Nasdaq. There has been a tug of war this month between — as ZeroHedge calls them — the AI check writers and the AI check receivers. Yesterday, we saw a trio of announcements of megacap tech companies being

FP Markets – global Forex and CFD broker – has expanded its equity offering to include share CFD for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX). Alongside a rich selection of existing stock CFDs, this addition is available to trade immediately via FP Markets MetaTrader 5 (MT5) and cTrader platforms. Trading SPCX through CFDs with FP Markets

The oil market briefly jumped earlier when the UAE sent out this message to resident cell phones. That was amplified by a report of explosions — untrue — in Iran’s media. The alert was withdrawn just 2 minutes after it was issued and now it all appears to have been some kind of technical mistake.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been supported following the hawkish Fed dot plot last week as the central bank’s tightening bias led to a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations. As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a rate hike this year (the consensus was for no cuts or

Prior month Wholesale inventories 0.7% (revised from 0.5% initially reported) Prior month retail inventories 0.7% May Advance Inventories Report – Key Takeaways Wholesale inventories: Rose 0.3% in May to $944.0 billion. Annual change in wholesale inventories: Up 4.3% versus May 2025. April wholesale inventory revision: Revised higher to +0.7% from the preliminary estimate of +0.6%.

Prelim was 48.9 Final May reading was 44.8 This is still an improvement from May but not quite as big of one. In my view, this report no longer has any value for traders or economists. It hasn’t been able to pick up any shifts in spending for years. It’s a political barometer now. This

Williams’s remarks (here, earlier) reinforce a higher-for-longer rate posture, with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge running at 4.1% in May and the 2% target now pushed out a full year. Markets pricing any near-term easing face a direct pushback from a senior Fed voice. The Middle East conflict remains the key swing factor: a swift

The combination of a landmark domestic investment pledge from Samsung and a government commitment to hold fuel price caps until inflation stabilises gives the KOSPI a rare double catalyst. The Samsung announcement, if confirmed at Monday’s presidential meeting, would be one of the largest single domestic investment commitments by a private conglomerate anywhere in the

Tokyo shares down ~4%, South Korea down ~6%. Fingers pointing at OpenAI IPO delay UBS targets $5,200/oz gold , sees current dip as buying opportunity Tokyo core-core CPI hits 1.9% as Middle East price pressures spread beyond energy PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8166 (vs. estimate at 6.8015) Iraq OPEC exit

Prior was -82.4B Exports of goods for May were $207.7 billion, $11.8 billion less than April exports Imports of goods for May were $313.4 billion, $10.9 billion more than April imports This is the worst since July 2025 and this will mean downgrades to Q2 growth estimates, including GDP trackers. The U.S. advance goods trade

The firm points out a couple of key reasons as to why Japan might not be wanting to pull the trigger just yet despite constant pressure on the yen currency in the past week or so. The first being the nature of the relationship between Japan and the US when it comes to foreign exchange

The denial is a concrete escalation in the use of technology trade controls as a tool in the broader US-China economic contest, and it carries implications beyond the automotive sector. Geely’s split outcome, with Volvo granted an exemption and Polestar denied, signals that US regulators are making granular determinations based on software and hardware supply

Reiterates monetary policy ‘well positioned’ for current economy Expects inflation to moderate to 3.5% this year If Middle East war disruptions resolved soon, will lower inflation pressure Williams expects inflation pressures to moderate Thus far U.S. resilient against war economic impact ‘Imperative’ Fed get inflation back to 2% target Sees U.S. growing at 2.25%, unemployment