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The move is symbolically significant given how long the Bank of Korea has stayed on the sidelines, but the scale involved is modest against the backdrop of broader central bank buying, which reached its strongest second quarter on record at 289 tonnes globally. Korea’s domestic output leaves only a small slice, around 4 to 5 […]

Nvidia shares have staged an impressive rebound since last Thursday, rallying 12.1% from a low near $190.00. Today’s move extended to $213.00, pushing the stock into an important resistance zone that has its roots going back to October 2025. More recently, sellers have consistently leaned against a ceiling between $212.19 and $214.39, and the stock

What a day for the bulls. The message after the earnings smoke has cleared is optimistic and the thinking is that: Maybe all these AI investments can continue and there is actually an ROI on all of them. For the valuations of the hyperscalers, you don’t need a big return on the huge amounts of

Prior was +4.24B (revised to +3.70B) Exports $77.49 vs $77.10B prior  (revised to $77.19) Imports $73.63B vs $72.86B prior (revised to $73.49B) Exports +0.4% m/m Imports +0.2% m/m Canada has been benefiting from the jump in commodity prices this year with strong surpluses since March. Those have helped to lift GDP, including a strong number

If you were waiting for the AI capex cycle to cool, keep waiting. Bank of America has updated its numbers after Q2 earnings from the four big US hyperscalers — Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta — and the trajectory is steeper, not flatter. The bank now sees CY26 hyperscaler capex above $860 billion, up roughly

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s latest comments on yen intervention in a CNBC interview might fuel speculation that the Bank of Japan could be moving closer to an imminent rate hike, particularly given the unusually strong level of coordination between Washington and Tokyo following last week’s joint currency intervention. While Bessent stopped short of explicitly

The U.S. dollar is mixed in early trading, strengthening against the JPY, CAD, and declining vs the GBP, EUR, AUD and NZD.  The biggest change is a -0.49% decline of the USD vs  the AUD and a 0.27% decline vs the NZD.  The USD is strongest vs the CAD by 0.11%. . In the video

There’s been progress made in talks with Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz There have been all kinds of reports pointing in this direction and obviously the market has been screaming the same thing. I shake my head at this whole fiasco and this is yet-another headline that’s obviously been front-run. WTI crude is down

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Crude oil opened the week with a big negative gap after Trump called off the planned strikes on Iran claiming they reached the perimeters of a deal that would include the immediate and complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz. He added that this ceasefire is subject to being able to make

The optimistic view on this is that Israel and Lebanon are working on a deal to withdraw Israeli forces from Southern Lebanon. That was one of the major sticking points in the prior US-Iran deal and could be a key sticking point in getting a deal done this week.  The talks are scheduled to go

European equities closed broadly higher on Tuesday as investors embraced a stronger risk-on tone fueled by hopes that progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz could ease tensions in the Middle East and restore a key global energy supply route. The improving geopolitical backdrop helped send crude oil sharply lower, pushed sovereign bond yields down

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are continuing, with both sides working toward a framework to organize and safeguard commercial shipping through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. According to the spokesperson, the discussions are aimed at establishing safe transit routes for vessels traveling to and from

Inflation is too high, wants to bring it down This is a complicated time for monetary policy It’s a low-hire, low-fire economy I hear from price setters that they don’t feel like they can pass on cost increases to consumers I’m weighing that out agains the AI boom and stock markets Has an open-mind where

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: We may have an Iran deal tomorrow to open Hormuz EUR/USD surges above 1.15 helped by yen intervention; focus shifts back to fundamentals Iran and Oman near Hormuz shipping deal, challenging decades of free navigation Is USD/JPY starting its rebound toward new cycle highs? Eyes on the Middle East and US

The coordinated yen-buying intervention remains the dominant theme for Japanese equities, with exporters facing renewed pressure from a stronger yen even as markets stay alert to the prospect of further official action if the currency weakens again. The sharp move in dollar/yen from around 163 underscores how forceful the intervention was, and continued caution suggests

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that a deal to reopen and stabilize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, raising hopes that recent tensions in the Gulf may ease and reduce pressure on global energy markets. Speaking in a CNBC interview, Bessent said negotiations regarding the

UBS’s framing suggests markets may be underpricing the durability of the current earnings cycle relative to the geopolitical noise around Hormuz, given the bank’s emphasis on broad-based profit beats across the US, Europe and Asia. The view that Fed rates stay unchanged for the rest of the year, despite Warsh’s guarded comments last week, could

Highest reading since June 2022 Fourth straight month of expansion Input prices rise at fastest pace in four years New export orders down for a second month Business confidence falls to lowest since March Canada’s manufacturing sector enjoyed its strongest performance since June 2022 in the latest PMI from S&P Global.  Output and new orders

As U.S. stocks continue to post solid gains, with the S&P 500 up 1.60% and the Nasdaq climbing 2.25%, many of the large-cap technology leaders are doing even better. The strong performance is once again putting the spotlight on the mega-cap names that have driven much of the market’s gains over the past few years.

The USDJPY has been moving in chunks which can provide opportunity for traders but if you get it wrong, it can be painful.  As a result, you need to find levels that “the market” are eyeing. How do you know they are watching them?  By the price reaction.  If you can identify key technical levels

Iran and Oman are reportedly close to reaching an agreement that would establish a new framework for managing shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, the proposed arrangement would place vessel movements through the strategic waterway under joint Iranian-Omani supervision without direct US involvement. If implemented, the deal would mark a significant departure from

Prior month -$77,10B revised to $-77.19 billion Trade balance -$73.3B vs $-73.0B est. Good trade balance $-101.41BB vs -$101.5B preliminary and prior month -$105.8B last month. Exports were $314.7 billion or  $-2.9 billion or -0.9% on the month. Imports were $388 billion or highest $7.3 billion or -1.8% month on month  Year-to-date, the goods and

The undershoot on both headline and monthly CPI is likely to be read as giving the Bank of Korea some breathing room, even as the vice finance minister’s comments on persistent upward pressures suggest policymakers are not treating the softer print as a green light to ease. The core CPI acceleration to its fastest pace

Job market is stable right now Committed to getting inflation back to target Committed to ahving ‘open mind’ about monetary policy outlook Supported decision to hold at the last meeting ENergy prices volatilie, data suggests it can be looked through Data suggests policy is ‘mildly restrictive’ If mon pol not restrictive enough, data will show

And it doesn’t come any bigger than the US jobs report. To be fair, perhaps the US CPI report will be of more importance. However, don’t underestimate the potential for any surprises in labour market data to upend the market pricing on the Fed outlook. The headline non-farm payrolls estimate for July is expected at

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar sold off across the board in the final part of last week. The initial weakness came from the FOMC rate decision as the extra dissent from Fed’s Kashkari wasn’t taken as a major hawkish surprise. On Thursday, we had heavy dollar-selling flows stemming from interventions by Japan and

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar sold off across the board in the final part of last week. The initial weakness came from the FOMC rate decision as the extra dissent from Fed’s Kashkari wasn’t taken as a major hawkish surprise. On Thursday, we had heavy dollar-selling flows stemming from interventions by Japan and

South Korea July CPI came in at +2.8% y/y, below the Reuters poll estimate of +3.0% and down from +3.2% in June, marking a three-month low. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.2%, versus expectations for +0.1%, its first monthly decline since November 2025, driven by a 5.5% drop in petroleum prices. Core CPI rose

The scale of Monday’s selloff suggests traders read the postponed strikes as a genuine de-escalation signal, even though Iran’s denials of any active talks injected some doubt into that view. What stands out, though, is that the OPEC+ output increase did little to change the market’s underlying supply calculus. With shipping through both the Strait

Tighter leverage limits or a higher minimum investment threshold would likely dampen trading volumes in single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to major semiconductor names, potentially easing some of the volatility these products have been blamed for amplifying. Given that many retail investors piled into these products near the peak in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares

An unconfirmed attack near one of the world’s most critical chokepoints is likely to trigger an immediate risk premium in oil markets, even before details are verified, given the volume of crude that transits Hormuz daily. The combination of this incident with unconfirmed reports of drone strikes on US assets in Kuwait raises the stakes

US-Iran tensions continue to be the main story for markets as we get into August trading. It seemed like things were taking a turn for the better late on the weekend, after US president Trump said that a deal on the Strait of Hormuz was “done” and that nuclear talks will then begin again “tomorrow

Nikkei slips on yen intervention fears as Kospi wobbles, Kosdaq surges Japan’s Kiuchi declines to name FX level, watching impact closely Telegram delisting from App Store hits crypto traders, GRAM slides Australia household spending beats, up 0.8% in June (expected +0.2%, prior +1.3%) UBS: earnings strength and gradual Hormuz recovery support equities In the news

There are a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. Once again, the expiries here don’t tie to any technical significance but could play a role in terms of limiting price movements in the session ahead. That as it

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. Injects 46.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. more to come  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Deutsche Bank’s analysis suggests gold’s recent pullback may already have run its course, with the bank pointing to a floor closer to $3,900/oz rather than the deeper retracement some technical models imply. That reading, paired with a fair value estimate still comfortably above spot, points to limited near-term downside risk and reinforces the bank’s existing

The modest bounce suggests the market is treating Monday’s selloff as an overreaction to Trump’s pause on strikes rather than confirmation of a genuine resolution, particularly given Iran’s denial that any talks are under way. The dispute over interpretation of the June memorandum of understanding, with Washington and Tehran reading the Hormuz provisions differently, points

The scale of the beat, four times the consensus forecast and following an even larger jump in May, is likely to reinforce the view that consumer demand remains resilient despite three RBA rate hikes already delivered this year. With inflation still running high and the labour market holding up, this data point strengthens the case

The lack of a clear funding mechanism is likely to be the key concern for currency markets, since a large, unfunded fiscal commitment adds to existing worries about Japan’s debt trajectory at a time when the yen is already under pressure. Traders are likely to view this as reinforcing the case for continued yen weakness,

A great start for US stocks to the month of August. Gains in he A technical look the technicals driving the large cap tech stocks Trump: Talks are going on now. This is the last chance (again). European indices (san UK FTSE 100) closed solidly higher on the day. Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate rises

The remarks add a fresh layer of rhetorical risk to a market already pricing in Trump’s decision to hold off on further strikes, even though nothing here points to a change in physical flows through Hormuz. Traders are likely to treat this as a continuation of the same pattern seen through the conflict, verbal escalation

HSBC’s framing puts the dollar trend, not last week’s Fed decision itself, at the centre of the story, and the bank’s read is that little has changed to threaten the currency’s upward path. Widening rate differentials remain the core driver in this view, with resilient US growth data reinforcing that support even as other major

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

It is a solid start to the month of August in the US stock market. The gains range from 1.32% all way up to 2.13%. The S&P, Nasdaq and Dow each rose for the 3rd straight day.   NASDAQ Composite (IXIC):+2.13% NASDAQ 100 (NDX):+1.78% Russell 2000 (RUT):+1.73% S&P 500 (SPX):+1.48% Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI):+1.32% Today’s rally

As noted in the screenshot below, lower tier importance data only today.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Pres. Trump is speaking again and says: Conflict is working out very well.  Iran talks are going on now at their request. Iran wanted to talk about the Strait This is the last chance . Gulf nations wanted one last chance Talking about have the Strait open tomorrow.  Denuclearization will take a little while Iran

The slowdown to a four-month low of 50.9 signals moderating but still-positive momentum in China’s private manufacturing sector, a more nuanced picture than outright weakness given new orders extended their longest growth run since 2018 and export orders returned to expansion after three months. The standout detail for supply chain watchers is the longest continuous

The Atlanta Fed growth estimate for Q3 rose to 6.2% from 5.0% in its initial reading. Recall from last week, the Q2 GDP came in at 1.5%. The Atlanta Fed model for Q2 forecasted 1.5%. Kudos to them. For the current model estimate, they said:  The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual

The strength of Japan’s manufacturing data, with output growth at its fastest since February 2014 and new orders rising at the quickest pace since January 2022, points to a sector running well ahead of most global peers, driven substantially by semiconductor and AI-related demand from Asia and the US. That momentum, however, comes with a

July CPI +0.4% vs +0.4% y/y expected Prior +0.5% July core CPI +0.3% y/y Prior +0.3% Swiss inflation continues be rather benign with the monthly estimate even showing a 0.1% decline in headline inflation. With core annual inflation also keeping steady and continuing to keep closer to 0% than 1%, the big worry for the

June retail sales -1.1% vs -0.1% m/m expected Prior +1.1%; revised to +1.2% It is a rather disappointing reading following the stronger bounce in May, which owed to a bit of a caveat. The May rebound was largely due to petrol station sales, which climbed by 3.5%, amid political countermeasures with there being a fuel discount

European equities finished broadly higher to start the week, with five of the six major indices posting gains as investors looked past geopolitical uncertainty and focused on improving risk sentiment. Italy led the advance with the FTSE MIB climbing 1.34%, while Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to lead the major markets. Spain’s IBEX 35 added 1.01%,

Monday begins with the release of the manufacturing PMIs for the eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. The following day, the focus will shift to the U.S. JOLTS job openings report. Wednesday brings New Zealand’s employment change q/q and unemployment rate, while later in the day, we’ll get the services PMI releases for the eurozone,

This all feels like déjà vu, doesn’t it? US president Trump saying that a deal is done but the Iranian camp is denying it. And after some constant back and forth over the coming days/weeks, we eventually arrive at a deal of sorts. But even then, it is one that is not likely to last as

There is arguably just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance, so they may not factor too much into play in the session ahead. The dollar is trending on the

Inflation numbers have been fantastic. We are focused on what we can do to make sure the shocks from oil are minimized. We waved the Jones Act which has helped to minimize the impact of the oil shock.  All the many voices of the Fed has created a capacity of confusion.  He is bringing in

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. Earlier: Weekend – Beijing to accelerate existing infrastructure spending, not new stimulus Injects 63bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Trump is on TruthSocial (I assume it is not the $100,000 one) where he is saying that Iran leadership is unbelievably duplicitous.   The full post reads: Of course Trump can have his “duplicitous” moments as well.  Just saying.   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF has moved higher today, rebounding from support at the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the late-May low at 0.8049. That bounce carried the pair to 0.8087 during the European session before extending further to a new intraday high at 0.8113. The latest push has the price testing a key swing area between

A confirmed stand-down from strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure would remove, for now, one of the more acute supply-side risks weighing on oil markets, particularly given the scale of the reported bombing campaign under discussion. Any de-escalation touching the Hormuz Strait carries outsized significance given the volume of global crude that transits the waterway daily,

Believes that Fed rate policy is ‘well positioned’ to achieve 2% inflation target If inflation is not on track to hit 2% level, Fed will act in order to ensure price stability Strongly supported the latest FOMC decision Fed is very committed to getting inflation back to 2% Remains optimistic that inflation pressures will gradually

SpaceX’s post-IPO collapse reflects a convergence of structural and operational pressures rather than a single catalyst, making near-term stabilisation unlikely before the August 6 lock-up passes. The looming release of roughly 911.5 million shares into a public float currently representing only 4 to 5 percent of total shares outstanding is the dominant overhang, with investors

Ethereum price analysis today: ETH bears press $1,852, but support has not broken yet Ethereum futures outlook score: -4 / +10 Bias: Moderately bearish while below $1,881.50, but sellers still need confirmed acceptance beneath $1,848.50 to activate the next downside leg. Ethereum futures are trading near $1,860.50 after retreating from Sunday’s high at $1,903.50. Short-term

Headlines: US-Iran conflict: Round and round we go.. Iran foreign ministry spokesperson says no plan for a delegation on talks with the US in the coming days USD/JPY holds lower to start the week as US enters the intervention fray Trump’s Iran deal claims lift gold, but markets remain skeptical Gold price forecast: Why the

Trump’s framing of the yen intervention as both a function of the US-Japan relationship and a source of financial benefit to Washington suggests the administration views the action as sustainable rather than a one-off emergency measure, which could support continued confidence in coordinated defence of the currency. His comment that the US is deriving a

The latest crossing figures underscore just how far shipping activity through both chokepoints remains from pre-conflict norms, with Hormuz traffic in particular a shadow of the flows that once carried a fifth of the world’s crude and gas. Even Friday’s relative high of 19 vessels was still well short of anything resembling normal pre-war throughput,

Friday’s confirmed joint intervention appears to be doing double duty, supporting the yen directly while also pushing Japanese short-dated yields to fresh highs as markets price in a higher probability of an early BOJ rate hike. The five-year yield’s rise to a record 2.050% and the two-year’s climb to its highest since May 1995 both

Free Hormuz… not so fast.  The US reportedly made a concession to Iran regarding the closure of the southern route in the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran rebuked the offer saying that the Strait of Hormuz would not open until the war is completely over.   The week opened on a more constructive footing as diplomatic efforts replaced the

We’ve had the data from NZ already: number of new dwelling consents-3.6% m/m and +32.1% y/y  The focus is on the private survey China manufacturing PMI. Official data were not encouraging: China July manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs 50.0 expected This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USD is mostly higher vs the major currencies with one exception, the JPY. The USD is lower vs the JPY as the pair continued its fall last week after reported intervention, and cracked below the 200 day MA for the first time since October 2025.  The Bank of Japan’s July money market data suggests

Six weeks ago, the US and Iran signed off on a ceasefire deal or memorandum of understanding as they would frame it. The agreement was meant to pave the way for nuclear talks but after three weeks of nothingness, it all came crashing down again. That brings us to today and we’re once again talking

In main Asian centre markets its just before: 5am in Tokyo 4am in Singapore and Hong Kong 6am in Australia and 8am in New Zealand Early indications, not much change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1554 USD/JPY 157.27 GBP/USD 1.3484 USD/CHF 0.8073 USD/CAD 1.4009 AUD/USD 0.7049 NZD/USD 0.5893 I’mm be back with weekend news soon.  This

Prior 52.5 Key findings: Growth of UK manufacturing production and new business gather pace in July Output and new order rise at faster rates Input price inflation eases sharply Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “July brought further encouragement for the UK manufacturing sector, as rates of growth in output, new

After the intervention play on Thursday last week, it seems like Tokyo officials were going to be dealt a setback on Friday as USD/JPY continued to test a push back above the 160 mark. But evidently, they had other plans and resorted to going to the US to help in a joint intervention effort to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Gold opened the week slightly higher after Trump called off the planned strikes on Iran claiming they reached the perimeters of a deal that would include the immediate and complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz. He added that this ceasefire is subject to being able to make a deal rapidly, with

Monday’s session highlights two distinct but simultaneously unfolding regional risk stories. In Tokyo, the confirmed joint US-Japan intervention has driven a sharp yen appreciation that is directly pressuring export-heavy names, with automakers among the hardest hit on concerns over deteriorating overseas profitability once translated back into a stronger currency. That dynamic is likely to persist

The USDCAD moved lower last week, breaking below both its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages and shifting the near-term technical bias in favor of the sellers. The decline also pushed through the mid-July low near 1.4000, reaching a session low of 1.3990. However, that move stalled just short of the key 38.2% retracement of the

Preliminary 53.8. Last month 53.9 Key Takeaways PMI unchanged at 53.9, signaling continued but steady manufacturing expansion. Output growth slowed to its weakest pace since March. New orders softened for the third consecutive month. Export demand remained weak, hurt by tariffs and subdued global demand. Supply chain disruptions intensified, with vendor delays among the worst

Gold price analysis today: Sellers test 4,100 support after failed gap higher Gold futures remain mildly bearish after failing to hold the new-week advance toward 4,146. December gold has returned to the low 4,110s, below intraday VWAP and close to the important 4,102-4,111 support zone. Sellers have the short-term advantage below 4,128, but bulls remain

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar sold off across the board in the final part of last week. The initial weakness came from the FOMC rate decision as the extra dissent from Fed’s Kashkari wasn’t taken as a major hawkish surprise. On Thursday, we had heavy dollar-selling flows stemming from interventions by Japan and

July final manufacturing PMI 51.9 vs 52.0 prelim Prior 51.4 Euro area manufacturing activity recovers to a three-month high, largely underpinned by Germany. Overall demand conditions in the region remain fragile at best but at least there is slight evidence of a rise in new orders. The manufacturing output index was the more impressive number here, rising

Two incoming reports: Iran’s IRGC has just launched an anti-ship cruise missile toward the Strait of Hormuz, likely target being an oil tanker sent by the US through the US-backed southern route UKMTO reports an attack incident off Oman Trump, is upbeat: Trump claims Hormuz deal done, denuclearisation talks to start tomorrow This article was written

Still believe Fed rate policy is “well positioned” to achieve 2% inflation If inflation not on track to 2%, Fed will act to get price stability Strongly supported FOMC’s last decision Fed is very committed to getting inflation back to 2% Remain optimistic inflation pressures will gradually ease There’s uncertainty around impact of Middle East

Coldcard hardware wallet exploit exposes a harsh lesson: Self-custody is only as strong as key generation A firmware flaw affecting some Coldcard hardware wallets has highlighted that secure self-custody depends not only on offline storage, but also on strong key generation. Here are the practical lessons every crypto investor should understand. A reported exploit affecting

Mimura’s framing of the joint intervention as the culmination of a longstanding currency alliance reinforces the narrative of durable, structural cooperation rather than a one-off response, which should support confidence in continued coordinated action if the yen weakens again. His refusal to comment on Trump’s forex remarks or on the specifics of BOJ discussions is

July final manufacturing PMI 49.8 vs 50.0 prelim Prior 51.2 It’s a sluggish start to the second half of the year for French manufacturing amid an accelerated declines in new orders, production and purchasing activity. The good news at least is that cost pressures did ease markedly but S&P Global did attach a caveat to that

Brokers that are offering retail forex trading services have, over time, competed to such an extent on the spread prices that those prices are so tight as to be unable to be a point of competition that brokers can afford. Particularly in the Australian and UK markets, the headline spread for most major currency pairs,

Nikkei sinks over 2% as yen surges, KOSPI slumps 4% on chip selloff UBS forecasts gold at $5,200 by June 2027 despite near-term pullback risk Reserve Bank of India expected to hold rates as inflation stays in comfort zone, Reuters poll shows China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI eases to 50.9, eighth month of growth China private

Confirmation of joint intervention marks a significant shift from Japan acting alone, and the scale reported, with the Bank of Japan data suggesting up to $58.97 billion sold to support the yen, signals a determined effort to defend the currency from its weakest levels against the dollar since 1986. The coordination with Washington, including Treasury’s

The absence of large-scale stimulus signals limited near-term upside for commodities and industrial demand tied directly to Chinese fiscal expansion, with the market instead left to price in a steadier, more incremental spending path through the third quarter. Accelerated deployment of already-budgeted infrastructure projects, particularly the roughly $1 trillion “six networks” initiative covering power grids,

Prior 52.2 Key findings: Slower growth in output amid first fall in new orders in three months New orders fall without boost from customer stockpiling Concurrent retrenchment of jobs and purchasing for first time in 2026 so far Softer inflationary pressures signalled Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “On the surface,

The rise to 52.0 signals a modest but genuine improvement in Australian manufacturing conditions, with production and new orders both returning to growth for the first time in several months, a mildly positive read for domestic industrial activity and employment data in the near term. However, the recovery remains fragile: input cost inflation, though easing,

UBS’s near-term caution reflects a market still digesting the risk of further Fed rate increases, which would keep real yields elevated and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold high, a dynamic that has already contributed to gold’s near 5% decline since the start of 2026 and its retreat from January’s record above $5,500. The

Trump with his market supportive comments ahead of the open have had an impact: oil down around 6% ES and NQ up around 0.5% each  ICYMI: Trump claims Hormuz deal done, denuclearisation talks to start tomorrow Weekend – Trump cancels Iran strikes as deal ‘perimeters’ agreed, Tehran denies request This article was written by Eamonn

JP Morgan’s analysis introduces a meaningful caveat to the recent show of unity between Washington and Tokyo on yen intervention: the US simply does not have deep pockets to match Japan’s, at least not without extraordinary measures. If markets come to see US participation as symbolic rather than substantive, some of the confidence built by

A hold from the RBI, in line with 68 of 72 economists surveyed by Reuters, would keep India as a notable outlier among emerging and developed market peers that have already hiked in response to the oil-price shock from the Iran war. The divergence keeps the rupee vulnerable, since the currency’s recent pressure has been

I’ll have more to come on this separately, details etc.  Earlier: Weekend – Beijing to accelerate existing infrastructure spending, not new stimulus — The RatingDog Manufacturing PMI is the private-sector survey that used to be branded the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI. Caixin ended its sponsorship of the survey in July 2025, and Shenzhen-based fintech firm

Official confirmation from both US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japan’s Ministry of Finance removes any ambiguity that had surrounded Friday’s suspected intervention, and the explicit pledge from both sides not to hesitate on further joint action signals a firm floor under the yen for now. Bessent’s comment backing Japan’s monetary and market steps to correct

Trump’s claim of a completed Hormuz agreement should be treated cautiously by markets pending independent confirmation from Iran or a third party, particularly given his prior claim of an Iranian request to hold off on strikes was directly denied by Tehran’s Mehr news agency as “a new lie.” His ‘deal done’ comment comes just prior

USD/yuan took a hit alongside USD/JPY in Friday’s intervention.  — The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system,

The September increase is largely symbolic given that export flows from the Gulf remain constrained by the Iran conflict, meaning the barrels are unlikely to show up in physical markets in the near term. The more consequential signal is the option value it creates: should Trump’s weekend claim of a de-escalation with Iran hold, and

Nasdaq futures analysis: Friday doji keeps 27,885 retracement in focus Nasdaq futures produced a powerful rebound on Thursday, rising roughly 4% from the daily open to the close. However, Friday brought no meaningful continuation. Instead, NQ formed a doji near important resistance and closed at 28,287, below both the monthly value area low near 28,317

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finished the week on a strong note, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.70% and the Nasdaq rising roughly 1.00% on the day. Those gains pushed both indices into positive territory for the week and left them closing near their weekly highs. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.05%,

The GBPUSD surged higher yesterday, extending its rally toward a key swing level at 1.34797. However, during the Asia-Pacific and early European sessions, the pair corrected lower, retracing back to its converged 100-day and 200-day moving averages near 1.3398. The day’s low reached 1.3400, just a couple of pips above that critical support zone. That

This week’s earnings season was dominated by the technology heavyweights. Microsoft delivered standout results that reignited enthusiasm around AI spending, while Amazon also impressed with strong cloud and advertising growth. Apple topped earnings estimates but offered a cautious outlook that weighed on the shares, and Meta came under pressure as investors remained concerned about the

Nikkei is reporting that: US Treasury Department has told currency market participants to prepare for a potential additional intervention following Thursday’s action by Japanese authorities to support the JPY.  Yesterday, the price fell from about 163.30 to a low near 158.00 before snapping back higher and reaching the 50% midpoint of yesterday’s trading range near

Major US stock indices continue to push higher. The gains are led by the Nasdaq 100 with a gain of 3.53%. The Russell 2000 and Dow lag but still with gains of about 1.25%.  After the close, Tim Cooks final earnings report will be released.  Expectations are for EPS of $1.89 versus $1.57 a year ago.

Headlines: How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? BOJ governor Ueda says to expect to keep raising interest rates in response to economic, financial conditions BOJ governor Ueda says will conduct monetary policy in a manner so as to not fall behind the curve BOJ leaves rates unchanged as expected. Vote was

The AUDUSD has been on a rollercoaster ride this week, with sharp swings in both directions. The week began with the pair trading below its 100- and 200-hour moving averages. Sellers then pushed the price below a trendline and a key swing area, sending it toward the 200-day moving average, but the decline stalled before

Preliminary 54.4 Prior month 49.5 Final sentiment index 55.2 versus 54.0 estimate Current conditions 54.8 vs 54.9 preliminary. Last month 47.7.. Expectations 55.4 vs 54.0 preliminary. Last month 50.7 1 year inflation expectations 4.2% versus 4.2% preliminary.  Last month 4.6% 5-year inflation expectations 3.3% versus 3.3% preliminary. Last month 3.3%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

European equities finished the week with a generally positive tone, although gains were modest across most major benchmarks. Investor sentiment remained supported despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding central bank policy, global growth, and trade developments. Most of the major indices are near all-time record levels. FTSE MIB (Italy): +0.13% to 52,172.54 Italy outperformed most of the

Prior was +0.9% Wages q/q +0.9% vs +0.8% prior Benefits q/q +1.0% vs +1.2% prior The U.S. Employment Cost Index showed labor costs continued to rise at a steady pace in the second quarter of 2026. For all civilian workers, total compensation increased 0.9% in the three months through June, matching gains in both wages

Dallas Fed Pres. Lorie Logan is on the wires explaining her dissent at the FOMC rate decision this week.  She was joined by Fed’s Kashkari and Fed’s Hammack (all three are regional presidents).  Kashkari and Hammack gave their explanations earlier today. Not surprisingly all 3 are concerned about inflation remaining too high for too long with the risks to

The US employment cost data rose by a solid 0.9% for the 2nd quarter in a row. In a world of rising inflation, having wages and benefits advance with inflation is the only hope for consumers. Absent that and the consumer falls further and further behind. The good news is that wages increase size you 20% last quarter

The USDCAD is moving higher today, reversing the declines from both yesterday and Wednesday. Recall that yesterday’s weakness came as the U.S. dollar sold off broadly in sympathy with the sharp decline in USDJPY amid intervention speculation. That selling pressure came despite Treasury yields moving higher following the FOMC decision. Today, yields are climbing again,

In a Fox Business inveterview, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the yen is very undervalued. He said it has substantially overshot equilibrium and that the US views excess volatility as unhealthy. Japan intervened in a big way earlier today but they’re going to be fighting a losing battle if US Treasury yields keep on

Fed’s Kashkari and Hammack are speaking and explaining their dissents at the last meeting in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike, arguing that inflation risks remain elevated and that a series of gradual policy moves would be more effective than waiting until larger hikes become necessary. Dissented at the FOMC meeting, preferring to

Snapback rally for the major indices. Amazon and Apple after the close. Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean +1.4% vs +2.7% in May BOE Bailey: Disinflation is proceeding but at a slow pace Atlanta Fed GDPNow initial estimate for Q3 is set at 5.0%. WH Advisor Hassett: Inflation is continuing to ease US June PCE inflation 3.7%

What is Situational Awareness, and who is Leopold Aschenbrenner? Before it became the name of a multibillion-dollar investment fund, Situational Awareness was a widely discussed essay about the future of artificial intelligence. Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher, published Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead in 2024. Across approximately 165 pages, he argued that rapid improvements

Prior 0.6% (was 0.5%) Real GDP: +0.3% m/m vs 0.2% estimate and marking the second consecutive monthly increase. Broad-based growth: 13 of 20 industrial sectors posted gains during the month. Goods-producing industries: +0.6%, with most sectors contributing to the increase. Services-producing industries: +0.2%, led primarily by gains in: Real estate and rental & leasing Public

TGIF. The USD is higher to start the US session which retraces some of the declines seen yesterday after the sharp run lower helped by potential intervention in the JPY (Selling USD, Buying JPY). In the video above I will run through the technical levels in play for 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and

What a wild week it has been for South Korea’s stock market. At one point on Wednesday, the losses stacked on top of the declines in the past six weeks to erase nearly all the gains from the rally since April to June. But after plenty of outcry and a rebound in Wall Street sentiment

ECB policymaker Martin Kocher reiterated the importance of maintaining a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, warning that geopolitical developments continue to pose risks to the inflation outlook. Kocher noted that recent weeks have demonstrated how quickly geopolitical events can affect energy prices and in turn inflation dynamics. His remarks highlight a key concern for policymakers

Prior +3.0% HICP +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +3.0% Italy’s preliminary inflation data for July ticked slightly higher. According to the preliminary estimate, Italy’s headline CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year in July, matching market expectations and slowing from the previous 3.0% pace. The harmonized measure of inflation (HICP), which is used by the ECB to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar weakened across the board yesterday following interventions from both Japan and South Korea. Throw into the mix month-end flows and you get noisy and volatile price action. The moves had nothing to do with the Fed or economic data. Looking ahead, the focus will remain on the US-Iran

July preliminary CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y expected Prior +2.8% July preliminary core CPI +2.5% vs +2.4% y/y expected Prior +2.4% Headline annual inflation in the euro area is seen climbing slightly in July to 2.9%, moving above the 2.8% estimate in June. However, the more concerning development is a further nudge up in core

In terms of ‘risk on’ sentiment, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are showing new life after testing key moving averages and getting a boost from Amazon earnings, up over 10% overnight, contrary to Apple’s negative earnings reaction of apx -7% in after-hours after it reported its quarterly earnings. Crypto has been a lot less volatile. Not to

July unemployment change 6k vs 5k expected Prior -1k July unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.3% expected Prior 6.3% It points to some softness in labour market conditions in the summer with unemployment rising by 6k in July. That brings the total number of unemployed persons recorded to roughly 2,993,000 people. But perhaps the standout figure

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. The expiries there are huge but don’t tie to any technical significance. Still, the size of the expiries in itself could act as a bit of a magnet in attracting

July Nationwide house prices +0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior 0.0% July Nationwide house prices +1.8% vs +1.9% y/y expected Prior +2.2% UK house price growth remains a little subdued in July, with the monthly estimate showing a marginal increase while the annual growth slows further to 1.8%. The average price of a dwelling in

Prior was +0.1% Separately, Japanese retail sales +0.5% y/y vs +3.1% exp Prior was +5.0% That’s a huge, sudden drop. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

BOJ leaves rates unchanged as expected. Vote was 8-1 China July manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs 50.0 expected Australia Q2 PPI +3.6% vs +3.0% prior Japan June prelim industrial production +1.3% m/m vs +0.7% expected Japan unemployment rate 2.5% vs 2.5% expected Tokyo July CPI ex-fresh food +1.9% y/y vs +1.7% expected South Korea also intervened

In a surprising turn of events, Japan decided to intervene in the market overnight before the BOJ meeting today. USD/JPY stumbled somewhat in European morning trade just before that, falling from 163.30 to 162.28 before recovering back to around 163.00. It seems like that was perhaps a rate check call before Tokyo officials stepped in

Major U.S. stock indices closed sharply higher, with technology stocks leading the rebound. The Nasdaq 100 erased all of Wednesday’s losses, while the S&P 500 also recovered its decline from the prior session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded by more than 600 points, clawing back over half of Wednesday’s roughly 1,100-point slide. The strong

Takata dissented Real GDP for fiscal 2026 to +0.6% vs +0.5% prior BOJ says risks to prices are skewed to the upside The Bank of Japan left its short-term rate target unchanged at 1.00% following a hike at the prior meeting. The move was fully expected but the dissent is a small surprise. Takata argued

It’s not a huge surprise given the rebounds in chip stocks today but it’s still unbelievable to see a national index swing like the Kospi has this week.  I have to tip my hat to the degens in South Korea, they’re truly the champions of the world. The catalyst here is that Leopold Aschenbrenner —

Shares of Amazong are quickly 12% higher after the company reported sales of $200.6 billion against $196.72 billion expected.  Operating income was $22.5 billion against $196.46 bilion expected. That’s a nice beat that translated to EPS of $5.75, though I’m not sure it’s aproper comp to the $1.62 estimate. Free cash flow was also negative

New Zealand consumers found their nerve in July but rising oil prices are probably going to weigh in the next report. The ANZ-Roy Morgan index jumped 8 points to 99.3, a third straight monthly gain that leaves it 19 points off the April trough of 80.3. It’s still 8 points shy of the January peak,

The USDCAD has extended to a fresh low for the day and its lowest level since June 17. In the process, the pair has broken below the swing lows from July 17 and July 20 at 1.4003, with today’s low reaching 1.3993. Despite the break, the price remains above the 38.2% retracement of the rally

July final consumer confidence -15.9 vs -15.9 prelim Prior -17.6 July economic confidence 96.9 vs 96.0 expected Prior 95.0; revised to 95.4 July services confidence 4.7 vs 3.8 expected Prior 3.2; revised to 4.2 July industrial confidence -6.1 vs -7.0 expected Prior -7.7; revised to -7.5 This points to a continued recovery in euro area

Prior +2.1% GDP Q2 Consumer spending 3.2% vs 0.5% prior GDP Q2 deflator 6.3% vs 3.9% expected Prior 3.6% GDP Q2 PCE prices Q/Q 5.1% vs 4.6% prior GDP Q2 Core PCE price Q/Q 3.4% vs 3.5% expected Prior 4.4% The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were increases in consumer spending,

The broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices are sharply higher today, but has the rally changed the technical picture? The answer is: it has improved it, but the buyers still have work to do. For the S&P 500, yesterday’s decline took the price to the upper edge of a key support zone between 7300 and

Prior +0.3% GDP Y/Y +1.0% vs +0.7% y/y expected Prior +0.8% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The FOMC rate decision is at the top of the hour. In the video above I take a look at some of the major currency pairs and outline the key technical levels in play. Be aware be prepared.  This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines: BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in July meeting, as expected USD/JPY stumbles lower in quick drop before slight bounce back Why a stock’s biggest decline may not be its best buying opportunity The bond market is voting against Warsh. Bond yields hit the highest since 2007 Eurozone Q2 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs

July preliminary CPI +3.5% vs +3.4% y/y expected Prior +3.2% July preliminary HICP +3.8% vs +3.7% y/y expeced Prior +3.6% Headline annual inflation continues to accelerate in Spain with the monthly change even reflecting a 0.2% increase. This now marks the sixth straight monthly increase in headline inflation, which follows from the 0.6% jump in

July final consumer confidence -15.9 vs -15.9 prelim Prior -17.6 July economic confidence 96.9 vs 96.0 expected Prior 95.0; revised to 95.4 July services confidence 4.7 vs 3.8 expected Prior 3.2; revised to 4.2 July industrial confidence -6.1 vs -7.0 expected Prior -7.7; revised to -7.5 More to come.. This article was written by Justin

Q2 preliminary GDP +0.7% vs +0.6% q/q expected Prior (Q1) +0.6% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There are a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD layered between the 1.1415 through to 1.1475 levels. The expiries don’t tie much to any technical significance but could still act on their own volition in keeping price action more in

The Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE price index was releases and it came in at +1.4% vs 2.7% last month. That is much lower than the headline PCE which came in at 3.7% and the core PCE at 3.3%.  it is also the lowest level going back to 2020.  That is good news.   What is

BOE Bailey is back on the wires saying: Disinflation is proceeding slowly. Labour market is weakening gradually. Markets are pricing and potential interest rate increases While a low hire rate, economy is contributing to unemployment The BOE Rate unchanged today with a vote of  6-3.  In his press conference, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey struck a

XTB Institutional has broadened its multi-asset offering with five new commodity instruments and longer trading availability on Fridays, giving brokers and banks more leeway to respond to market activity before the weekend. The update, effective from July 3rd 2026, adds COCOA.EU, COFFEE.EU, NATGAS.EU, ORANGE and SUGAR.EU to the company’s institutional offering. These additions further expand

With the 2nd quarter GDP advance coming in at 1.5% versus 2.1% expectations from Reuters economists in the rear view mirror, how did the Atlanta Fed model predict the quarter?  On Tuesday, the final estimate came in at 1.5% – equal to the advanced release.  Atlanta Fed economist deservedly take a bow.  Well done. Now we are entering the

The dollar did see early gains ease up a little as we got into European trading and that saw USD/JPY pare its advance from 163.70 to around 163.30-40 levels. But in the last 10-15 minutes, there is a quick drop now in the currency pair with it falling by 100 pips to 162.28 before a

Prior -0.2% GDP Y/Y +1.0% vs +0.5% expected Prior +0.3% This is much better than expected and will keep the ECB’s tightening bias intact, with particular focus on inflation to limit potential second-round effects. In the second quarter of 2026, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.4% in the Eurozone and by 0.5% in the EU, compared with

We stand ready to adjust our stance as the outlook evolves UK economic activity is subdued, and the labour market is soft There is little as of yet to suggest higher energy prices are embedded While household inflation expectations have fallen, they remain elevated Pressures are building more slowly than we thought in April I

The USD is sharply to the downside led by the USDJPY on possible intervention. The USDJPY has fallen -2.5% with th price falling below its 100 day moving average for the 1st time since mid-May at 160.059, and testing it 200 day moving average at 157.887.  Price action remains very volatile. The other major currencies including the

WH  NEC advisor Kevin Hassett is on the wires saying: Says “of course” when asked about confidence in Fed Chair Warsh Warsh job is now easier following the day’s inflation date Hasset says Warsh is a realist. Says Warsh is serious about getting inflation back to target 2% Warch will to what the data says

The USD is mostly lower vs the major currencies with the the USDJPY (-0.30% USD), AUD (-0.35%) and the NZD (-0.76%) leading the way. The greenback fell sharply after the Fed kept rates unchange yesterday and Chair Warsh sounded like he supported the markets decision to take rates higher between decisions, and the Fed would

The major stock indices are rebounding led by the NASDAQ index with a gain of 2.39%. The NASDAQ 100 is doing even better with a gain of 2.89%. The S&P is up 1.23% and the Dow industrial average is up 0.68%. Yesterday, the major indices fell sharply with the final numbers showing: Dow industrial average

The USDJPY is running to the downside with mumblings about intervention. The price is trading toward the July low at 160.446. The low price has just reached 160.87. Looking at the hourly chart, the move up from the early May low to the high price seen just last week comes in at 160.56. That’s just above

Prior PCE 4.1%. Core prior 3.4% Headline PCE YoY for June 3.7% vs 3.7% est Core PCE YoY for June 3.3% vs 3.3% est Headline MoM -0.1% vs -0.1% est. Last 0.5% (revised up from 0.4%) Core MoM 0.1% vs 0.2% est. Last 0.3% PCE Ex food and energy 0.1% vs 0.3% last month PCE

We stand ready to adjust our stance as the outlook evolves UK economic activity is subdued, and the labour market is soft There is little as of yet to suggest higher energy prices are embedded While household inflation expectations have fallen, they remain elevated more to come… This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at

Prior +0.3% GDP Y/Y +1.0% vs +0.7% y/y expected Prior +0.8% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

It is going to be a packed calendar in European morning trade today, with a mix of economic and inflation numbers to run through. The latter will continue to be the more pertinent one to watch but with the ECB already pausing this month, there shouldn’t be too much immediate impact. That unless we see

There are no credible reports of explosions in Iran at the moment but I would expect them. The WSJ reports that a US Commander has suggested to him a two-week campaign of strikes. I’m not sure what they expect that to accomplish, aside from higher oil prices. Update: Just now there are reports of strikes

Prior 3.75% Bank rate vote 0-6-3 vs 0-7-2 expected (Greene, Pill, Mann voted for 25 bps rate hike) The impact of the energy shock on the UK economy remains uncertain Monetary policy cannot influence energy prices Policy stance required to achieve 2% inflation target sustainably depends on the scale and duration of the shock The risk

Prior 187K (revised to 188K) Continuing claims 1782K vs 1795K expected Prior 1796K (revised to 1789K) US initial jobless claims came in at 197K, below the 200K consensus estimate, while the previous week’s reading was revised up slightly to 188K from 187K. Continuing claims also surprised to the downside at 1.782 million compared to expectations

Prior +2.3% HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.4% Core CPI Y/Y +2.4% vs +2.5% prior The inflation rate in Germany is expected to be +2.8% in July 2026. The inflation rate excluding food and energy is expected to stand at +2.4% in July 2026. Energy prices are expected to be up 8.3% on

Meta shares are getting smoked after the company showed no signs of slowing down AI spending. The decline accelerated after CFO Susan Li said Meta’s longer-term strategy aims to allow continued compute growth in 2028 and beyond. CEO Mark Zuckerberg is also betting on consumer personal agents, which he said are going to end up

The full statement from the Federal Reserve:  The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its

The Bank of England is expected hold the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote split with Pill and Green supporting a rate hike. There is a good chance we see a 6-3 vote split with Mann joining Pill and Greene. That wouldn’t be a total surprise though.  In fact, based on her

Microsoft shares are up 7% after hours with most of the gains coming in the past few minutes on the capex headlines, not the beat. The numbers were good. Q4 adjusted EPS of $4.74 crushed the $4.24 estimate and revenue of $90.0 billion beat $87.6 billion expected. Full-year profit came in at $133.7 billion, up

Q2 preliminary GDP +0.2% vs +0.1% q/q expected Prior (Q1) +0.3%; revised to +0.4% The German economy is seen holding up in Q2 as it posts marginal growth on the quarter. That being said, Destatis points out that a rise in exports was arguably the key reason as preliminary findings saw that consumer spending remained subdued

Ten year Treasury yields are up 7 bps so far in Asia and 30s are up 9 bps.  The latter just hit a fresh cycle high at 5.24%. That’s the highest since 2007 and it looks like a major break could be taking place. We have been testing the 5.20% level since October 2023 when

The German state readings released around the same time: Bavaria July CPI +2.8% vs +2.5% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia July CPI +2.7% vs +2.1% y/y prior Saxony July CPI +2.7% vs +2.5% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg June CPI +2.5% vs +2.1% y/y prior The headline inflation figures here are much higher than in June,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar weakened across the board yesterday despite three dissenters voting for a rate hike. The consensus was that Fed’s Logan and Fed’s Hammack would prefer a rate increase at this meeting, but we also got Fed’s Kashkari. I guess the fact that Fed’s Kashkari is a hawkish member, combined

July preliminary CPI +3.5% vs +3.4% y/y expected Prior +3.2% HICP +3.8% vs +3.7% y/y expeced Prior +3.6% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin analysis today after the Fed: BTC futures trade near a two-way decision zone Bitcoin futures experienced a volatile reaction following the Federal Reserve decision, but the initial price swings did not produce a lasting directional breakout. The July Bitcoin futures contract first surged from below $64,000 to approximately $64,720, before reversing sharply toward $63,335.

The Nasdaq-100 is near record highs, but these stocks remain trapped in deep bear markets The Nasdaq-100 may be trading close to record territory, but the strength of the headline index tells only part of the story. Several well-known growth stocks remain more than 50% below their all-time highs, creating a striking divide between the

Fed chair Warsh has definitely stirred the pot with his latest forward guidance approach, or should I say lack thereof, as he wants markets to do the job on tightening instead. I would argue that the press conference damaged his credibility more so than it looks like he laid down a marker, but we’ll have

Q2 preliminary GDP +% vs +0.1% q/q expected Prior (Q1) +0.3% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Q2 preliminary GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% q/q expected Prior (Q1) -0.1% Q2 preliminary GDP +0.7% vs +0.8% y/y expeced Prior (Q1) +0.9% The French economy is estimated to have rebounded in Q2, helped mostly by a modest recovery in domestic demand conditions. Overall, domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed +0.1% to GDP growth, after -0.2% in Q1

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as expected, but the biggest takeaway from Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference was the continued shift away from forward guidance. Rather than signaling where policy is headed, Warsh emphasized that the economy, inflation, and ultimately the bond market will determine the path of interest rates. It is a

The Bank of Canada meeting minutes for the July 15 rate decision commented:  Ahead of the Bank of Canada’s July 15 rate announcement, Governing Council members were split over whether the recent rebound in the economy would prove sustainable. Brazil’s Labor Ministry reported that formal employment increased by +145.2K jobs in June, above the Reuters

The US military confirms that it has struck targets inside Iran. For now, WTI is down $1 and that might reflect initial reports that the attack wasn’t some kind of overwhelming escalation.  At some point though, the oil needs to flow. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

You can watch the live press conference by clicking image below: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

What were levels ahead of the Fed Chair Press conference.  U.S. Stocks Dow Jones: 51,957.19 (-795.10, -1.51%) S&P 500: 7,392.95 (-35.82, -0.48%) Nasdaq Composite: 24,798.83 (-87.08, -0.35%) Russell 2000: 2,924.86 (-28.94, -0.98%) Nasdaq 100: 27,605.74 (-157.40, -0.57%) U.S. Treasury Yields 2-Year: 4.2706% (-0.64 bps) 3-Year: 4.3095% (+0.65 bps) 5-Year: 4.3820% (+2.10 bps) 7-Year: 4.5048% (+2.48

Our policy is helping to bring prices lower. The WH trusts Warsh’s judgement Confidence in him could never be higher.  When there is a productivity boom and real wages go up that is a good thing for the economy There was a massive stimulus from Biden administration that led to inflation.  This article was written

I do most of our family’s grocery shopping—primarily at Costco, with a few supplemental trips to the local grocery store. Earlier this week, I needed to pick up a 12-pack of Coke. I remember not that long ago being able to buy three 12-packs on sale for $10. This week, one 12-pack was $11.99, with

A senior Israeli security official told i24 that the U.S. is preparing for “something bigger than anything we’ve seen so far.” Sources say Washington is weighing a more significant military operation rather than another limited retaliatory strike. The assessment is based on a series of developments rather than a single event, including: Iran’s ballistic missile

The broader US stock indices are trading lower on the day with clearly defined support resistance levels. In the video above I take a look at the NASDAQ and the S&P indices, outline the short-term support resistance levels at the market traders are following, and the implications for the next breaks. Will the buyers keep hope

There isn’t all too much on the expiries board for the day ahead, with the full list seen below. The only notable one perhaps is for EUR/USD at the 1.1415 level. Even then, the expiries don’t tie to any technical significance so I would not attach too much impact from it on price action. The

Full report here The Iran-backed Houthis are reportedly considering charging commercial ships transit fees to pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The move comes one week after the group declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, further escalating tensions in the ongoing

As the European and London traders head toward the close, stocks have moved lower, yield are higher and so is are oil prices. The markets are anxious about the Fed with the chance of a hike up to about 35% as Fed Chair Warsh (and the Fed voters) ponder the “for” and “against” choices.  Recall

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Gold is trading near weekly lows as the hedging activity into the FOMC decision and renewed escalation on the US-Iran front weighed on the precious metal. Iran launched a “surprise attack” against US forces in the region tonight. All the missiles and drones were intercepted, but the escalation increased the risk of

Headlines: Iran official reportedly says Oman proposal on Strait of Hormuz has no chance of success Yemen’s Houthis are considering fees for ships sailing through the Red Sea – Reuters Is the U.S. bull rally running out of steam? Fed preview: It’s all about the dissenters ECB’s Patsalides: Rate hikes in ECB projections don’t obligate

I don’t think we’re worried enough about rogue AI agents. The story from OpenAI about the first breakout is crazy. The machine found a way onto the internet and hacked deeply into Hugging Face. The company wasn’t exactly forthright immediately either. Now, Reuters is reporting that another rogue agent at OpenAI compomised a customer account

The USD is little changed vs the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – ahead of the Fed rate decision later today with all three pairs within 0.09% of unchanged on the day. IN the video above, I take a look at the technicals driving those three currency pairs and define

It was always going to be a long shot but as mentioned yesterday, the details of the proposal are not going to be up to Iran’s liking whatsoever. And we’re already getting a quick response as a senior Iran official shoots it down. The headlines are via Reuters: Iran has ruled out Oman’s proposal for

Gold price analysis today: Bulls need to reclaim $4,025 as the $4,000 floor faces a Fed test Bias: Gold futures remain trapped in a short-term trading range near the psychologically important $4,000 level. The better risk-to-reward currently appears on the bullish side, but only if buyers first reclaim the tightly packed resistance cluster near $4,024-$4,025.

June mortgage approvals 58.2k vs 57.2k expected Prior 56.2k; revised to 56.6k June net consumer credit £1.8 billion Prior £1.7 billion The net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals in the UK increased to £7.7 billion in June, up from £3.3 billion in May. That comes as net mortgage approvals also show a jump to 58,200

Introduction This article explores the concepts of volatility. We use the plural here because there are actually multiple types of volatility. And you may be surprised to learn that the type most commonly used by traders is actually less critical to future changes in prices than its lesser-known counterpart. Indeed, the disparity in access to

CPI m/m -0.1% vs +0.2% expected June trimmed mean 3.6% y/y vs 3.7% expected Australian Q2 CPI 4.0% y/y vs +4.1% expected Prior was 4.1% CPI q/q +0.6% vs +0.7% expected (prior was +1.4%) RBA trimmed mean 3.6% y/y vs 3.7% expected RBA weighted mean 3.6% y/y vs 3.7% expected These are slightly cool numbers

When markets are surging with euphoria, there’s never any problem. But when exposed to volatility on the opposite end that causes sharp losses, suddenly it’s an issue. Boohoo. In the run from April to the peak in June, South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index gained by a whopping 85%. Since then, the AI trade went bust

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar has been mostly rangebound in the past couple of days as hedging activity into the FOMC decision and renewed escalation on the US-Iran front kept the price action in check. Iran launched a “surprise attack” against US forces in the region tonight. All the missiles and drones were

The FOMC is expected to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The consensus expects up to two dissenters to vote in favor of a rate hike at this meeting, likely Fed’s Logan and/or Fed’s Hammack. We won’t get the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) at this meeting.  Forward guidance

Over the past five days, the Nasdaq has fallen more than 3%,  and while the case for a further decline may look strong at first glance, there are still a few “buts.”  Starting with geopolitics, although tensions in the Middle East have flared up again,pushing oil prices higher and raising concerns about a more aggressive

The passage of time definitely works against us on inflation If higher oil prices persist, inflation risks will rise September decision remains open and data-dependent Second-round effects are not evident, expectations are anchored Rate hikes in ECB projections don’t obligate us, policy can’t depend on today’s yield curve As inflation risks rise, balance shifts towards

June import prices -0.7% vs -0.7% m/m expected Prior +0.7% This is in contrast to the May estimate but it matches with the decline in energy prices in the run up to the ceasefire deal between the US and Iran at the end of June. Since then, a lot has changed of course and energy

It’s looking really rough out there with Asian stocks once again being taken to the cleaners. All eyes are on South Korea as tech shares continue to be battered amid the AI boom and bust cycle. At the lows just now, the KOSPI sank by over 12% and leads the rout in recent weeks to

USDCAD moved higher yesterday, extending toward a former support zone between 1.41297 and 1.41488 that has now become resistance. In early Asian-Pacific trading today, the pair reached 1.4128, just shy of the lower end of that swing area, where sellers stepped in and pushed the price lower. The pullback found support at the 100-hour moving

It’s getting ugly in South Korean stocks and now the government is trying to come to the rescue. The Kospi is down another 6% today after initially opening higher and SK Hynix is down 10%.  The finance minster just hit the tape and said they’re internally reviewing ways to stabilize the domestic stock market. This

The day is starting decidedly quieter in South Korea today with the Kospi up 1.3%. It comes after a 10.8% decline yesterday. For now this looks like a dead-cat bounce. Eyes are on SK Hynix after reporting earnings that didn’t look great on the surface. For the bigger picture,SK Hynix says in the call that

Similarly to Monday’s trade, the Dow industrial average is closing softly higher. The S&P index is near unchanged quality NASDAQ index is lower. Looking at the closing levels of the indices: Dow industrial average rose by 537.05 points 1.03% at 52752.28 S&P rose 15.60 or +0.21% that 7428.77 NASDAQ index fell -55.17 points or -0.22% at

It’s tough to find any historical analogues for what’s happened in the Kospi in the past 15 weeks. Starting from April, the South Korean index rose 80% in just 10 weeks. That’s been followed by a 40% decline, mostly wiping out the gain.  To put into perspective how insane a 40% decline over 35 days

Oil prices are quickly higher after a report from Axios that says Iran launched ballistic missiles towards a US base in Jordan. One report says At at 3 ballistic missiles were launched and the Axios report cites a “US official”. It also notes that the missiles were intercepted. This article was written by Adam Button at

Not even the Governor knows what’s coming next. That points to a healthy debate. More comments: If board thinks inflation is not coming down, will have some difficult decisions to make Decision will depend on whether the board thinks policy is restricitve  AUD was last at 0.6983 and doesn’t seem bothered by today’s comments. This

Prior month 1.2% revised from 1.1% YoY 1.6% versus 1.3% expected MoM 0.2% versus 0.1% expected MoM not seasonally adjusted 0.9% versus 1.0% prior month   Details With inflation at 4.2%, home prices continue to decline in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. Price performance remains uneven across the country, with the Northeast and Midwest outperforming while many Western and

High yield 4.473% WI level at the time of the auction 4.471% Tail 0.2 basis points Bid to cover 2.49X vs avg at 2.48X Directs 16.9% vs avg of 24% Indirects 70.1% vs avg of 64.5% Dealers 13% vs avg of 11.4% Auction grade C- Modestly below average auction to end the coupon auctions ahead

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The market mood as we look towards European trading later is more defensive with all eyes on the rout in tech shares. It is a bloodbath in Asia and while European indices may not be as tech

Senior Israeli officials described the meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as “very good” and “very positive,” with discussions focused primarily on Iran and reaffirming their shared commitment to preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Key developments: Senior Israeli officials called the Trump-Netanyahu meeting “very good” and “very positive.” Discussions centered

The USDCHF extended its rally today, reaching a high of 0.82045 before running into sellers. As highlighted in prior videos and posts, the next major upside target came in between 0.8211 and 0.8214. That zone is defined by the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the early-2025 high at 0.8211 and the June 2025 swing

Iran understands he will never have a nuclear weapon. Pickaxe Mountain is not a big problem. They know exactly what is going on Israel PM Netanyahu wants to stay involved in Iran. This is a good time for Iran to make a deal. The US is in a very strong position right now. I would

Prior week 16,250 revised from 16,500 For the four weeks ending July 11, 2026, US private employers added an average of 15,000 jobs a week down from 16,250 last week. Hiring slowed for the 5th straight week. The numbers are preliminary and could change as new data is added. What is it? Three times a

Prior was +0.1% US retail inventories ex-auto m/m -0.2% vs +0.3% prior For background, the US Wholesale Inventories report measures the monthly change in the value of goods held by wholesalers across the United States. Wholesalers occupy the middle of the supply chain, purchasing goods from manufacturers and selling them to retailers, businesses, and institutions

July consumer confidence 86 vs 85 expected Prior 84 The reading continues to reaffirm a further rebound in French consumer sentiment in July, though keeping well below the peak earlier this year in February of 92. And overall, the estimate is still well below the long-term average reading of 100. French households are seen feeling

Japan June core CPI +2.7% y/y Prior +2.7% Japan June core-core CPI +2.0% y/y Prior +2.1% Just be wary though that in the case of the BOJ data set here, the core CPI estimate still includes energy but excludes fresh food and institutional factors. Meanwhile, the core-core CPI estimate also excludes energy from the equation.

It is one thing to have the backing of other members in the region but a whole other thing to expect Iran to accept this proposal. Here are the some of the details outlined by the source: Iran would not exercise sole control of Strait of Hormuz It will be a joint regional mechanism to

Prior was -105.8 billion. The worst since July 2025 Exports of goods for May 204.7 billion versus $207.7 billion last month. That is -3.8 billion less than May exports Imports of goods for May 306.2 billion versus $313.4 billion last month. That is -8.2 billion less than May imports Although better than the previous report,

Key question is whether tightening already delivered is enough to slow inflation Board ready to raise cash rate further if needed Policy operates with a lag, so full effects of this year’s rate increases yet to be felt Best contribution policy can make is to maintain low, stable inflation Some further easing in growth of

It’s an ugly day for Asian equities to say the least as tech shares, chipmakers and semiconductors especially, are being taken to the cleaners. South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index is the standout, being down roughly 10% on the day. What a beating. The drop there continues the fall from mid-June with the index down some

RBA’s Bullock: Key question is whether tightening already delivered enough Kospi extends decline to 10% Japan finance minister: Mon pol has moved to world of interest rates South Korea June consumer sentiment 106.8 vs 106.6 prior Nucor beats estimates, but shares shrug it off FOMC preview: Realized volatility to come Markets: Kospi -10.2% Nikkei 225

With all that is happening with US-Iran developments and the big selloff in tech shares, let’s not forget that there is still the central bank bonanza this week. And on that note, none is bigger than the FOMC meeting that will come tomorrow. The Fed policy decision in itself is expected to be rather straightforward.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   The S&P 500 has been mostly rangebound this month as the US-Iran crisis brought back inflation and growth risks. This has also happened amid overcrowded stock market positioning which has led to deleveraging across the board. The latest weakness seems to be more about hedging/deleveraging activity ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision rather

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar opened the week lower yesterday after the US halted its strikes following 13 consecutive days of attacks, while Iran pledged to maintain a ceasefire so long as the US remained on pause. This has led to some optimism as traders took this latest development as an early sign

The major US stock indices painted a mixed picture with the Dow industrial average and Russell 2000 posting solid gains, while the S&P 500 finished nearly unchanged and the technology-heavy indices closed lower. Dow industrial average rose 263.03 points, or 0.51%, to 52,215.23 S&P 500 edged up 1.20 points, or 0.02%, to 7,413.17 Russell 2000 gained

If the trillion dollars in capex spent on AI this year ends up being worth it, a big breakthrough needs to happen. Most likely, that will come from AI learning how to make AI better. That would be models that build better models. In most people’s thinking about this, that means AI will build smarter

I wrote about how ugly the Kospi chart was earlier but it’s certainly unfolding faster than anticipated. It broke the support of the July lows and the February interim high at the open today and it’s been straight down since. It’s extended the decline to 10% now. A double-digit decline is the kind of thing

While renewed tensions in the Middle East continue to influence investor sentiment, gold is also facing headwinds from elevated US Treasury yields, a resilient US dollar and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision.  Unlike previous geopolitical crises, military developments are no longer a major factor driving the precious metal. Instead, gold traders must

Don’t think public-private investment target of 370 trillion yen is excessive Prices have been rising in a healthy manner Can’t comment on source of funding food tax cut beyond what the PM said yesterday Between the yen and rising Japanese yields/inflation, something has to give in Japan. There are people writing about ‘the biggest bubble

Global markets are confronting sharp cross-asset turbulence as Asia leads a steep risk-off move, with South Korea’s Kospi extending its decline to 10% after breaking key technical support. As Adam Button at investingLive.com noted, this sudden double-digit slump is spilling into broader global risk sentiment just ahead of a critical monetary policy decision where the

Nucor (NYSE: NUE) just delivered the kind of quarter that validates the entire domestic-steel thesis, and it did it with numbers that weren’t close to what the Street was modeling. The after-hours reaction — shares down about 0.2% — tells you the good news was already in the price. The headline beat Adjusted EPS: $4.84

The FOMC stakes are higher in the Kevin Warsh era. The new Fed chairman has changed the game in a way that will undoubtedly make markets more lively. The past two Fed chairs did everything they could to foreshadow rate moves in order to tamp down volatility but Warsh is headed in the opposite direction:

US stocks close the day mixed with the Dow up, S&P unchanged and the Nasdaq modestly lower. Crude oil futures settled at $82.61 US Treasury sells $70B of 5 year notes at a high yield of 4.408% Trump: On Iran, I have plenty of time Pakistani Intelligence: U.S. May Be Considering Limited Ground Operation in

RBA Governor Michele Bullock speaks at 1:05 pm Sydney time today and that’s the lone highlight on the Asia-Pacific calendar. It’s a quiet one but there are no local holidays, just a gap on the calendar. China will be in focus as we eye the second day of trading in CXMT, which deputed post-IPO with a

The USDCAD is modestly higher on the day after sellers failed to extend the downside following an early break lower. The pair opened on the defensive and slipped below its rising 100-hour moving average (currently at 1.40874), but bearish momentum quickly stalled ahead of the 200-hour moving average at 1.4064. The decline reached a low

There’s going to be quite a lot for markets to digest in the week ahead. US-Iran developments are already making waves to start the new week but keep in mind that there will also be major central bank decisions and month-end trading to deal with. Adding to the mix in the days to come will

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD both pushed higher during the Asian session but have since reversed lower as U.S. Treasury yields trimmed earlier declines and U.S. equities slipped into negative territory. The S&P 500 is down 0.22% while the NASDAQ is lower by 0.48%. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield is down 1.9 basis points, after being

N12 News is reporting on comments from Pres. Trump: We are having deep talks with Iran. I am not going to take much time to negotiate, either it will move quickly or won’t happen at all. we will go back to very powerful military action if talks are not successful. Everyone involved in negotiations with

Pakistani intelligence officials in a news report is saying that they believe the U.S. could be preparing a limited ground offensive in Iran. The reported objective would be to cut off Iran’s coastal region before any broader peace agreement is finalized. Officials pointed to U.S. troop deployments, military movements, and increasingly forceful rhetoric as signs

Trump to reporters: On Iran, I have plenty of time. Were talking with Iran right now. Good chance something will happen. We have a lot of ammunition. I would like to have more On Israel, we are pretty close when it comes to Iran On Ukraine war, will find out about Russia’s actions. Will asked Russia’s Putin

US treasury sells $16 billion of two-year notes at a high yield of 4.315% High yield 4.315% WI level at the time of the auction 4.320% Tail -0.5 basis points vs average of 0.1 bps Bid to cover 2.66X vs average of 2.63X Directs 34.05% versus average of 29.2% Indirects 56.59% versus average of 58.2% Dealers 9.36% versus average of

Headlines: Market update today and what may be interesting to trade Oil prices fall as expectations for de-escalation strengthen after the US halted strikes on Iran A case of US-Iran déjà vu for markets? Big tech earnings in focus in Wall Street this week ECB policymaker Žigman says September decision will be based on data

The USD is mostly lower as yields retreat as oil retreats, as stocks don’t retreat (they rise) as the war retreats.   In the video above I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs to kickstart the trading day in North America. What are the key levels in play and why (I show you

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Gold opened the week higher following some positive developments over the weekend. The US halted its strikes after 13 days of attacks and Iran said it will maintain a ceasefire so long as the US remains on pause. This has led to some optimism as traders took this latest development as an

The US economic calendar of releases is done for the day after the weaker than expected durable goods orders. However, there will be not one but 2 coupon auctions today. Normally the US treasury auctions off its coupon issues on to say Wednesday and Thursday. However, because of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on

Happy Monday to all the bulls out there, and to the oil bears. There was an inkling of what was coming on Friday’s price action and we got confirmation over the weekend as the US halted strikes. It doesn’t sound like a deal is imminent but the shooting has stopped and that’s leading to some

Funded trading has stopped being a niche. Searches for “prop firm” have risen more than 50-fold since 2020, and category bellwether FTMO reported over 2.3 million trading accounts in 2024. Growth of that speed attracts two things: capital and complaints — rules that change mid-challenge, withdrawals that take six weeks, “profit splits” quietly eroded by

The Australian dollar is a standout performer to start the week, up 0.3% and trailing only the euro in G10 FX. Analysts at Westpac are eyeing a modest trendline from early July. Friday’s rebound off 0.6965 support and the 0.7000-handle touch keeps AUD’s low-key/low-vol July uptrend intact – it was increasingly looking fatigued after repeated

The major U.S. stock indices are trading higher, with investors encouraged by a combination of easing geopolitical tensions, sharply lower oil prices, and hopes that the recent flare-up in the Middle East may be giving way to renewed diplomacy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average leads the gains, up 1.23%, while the NASDAQ is higher by

The USDCHF moved higher last week, testing a topside trendline connecting the series of lower highs dating back to July 1 on the hourly chart (see red numbered circles on the chart below). The pair stalled against that trendline on both Thursday and Friday, leaving traders with a key question heading into the new week:

UK July retail sales balance -26 Prior -54 UK expected retail sales for August -26 Prior -45 The headline retail sales balance for July is the highest since January while the expected sales for the month ahead in August also climbs to its highest since March. Besides that, the volume of retail sales for this

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Crude oil opened the week with a negative gap following some positive developments over the weekend. The US halted its strikes after 13 days of attacks and Iran said it will maintain a ceasefire so long as the US remains on pause. This has led to some optimism as traders took this

July business climate index 86.6 vs 86.0 expected Prior 85.6; revised to 85.7 July current conditions 86.5 vs 87.3 expected Prior 87.0 July expectations/outlook 86.7 vs 84.8 expected Prior 84.1; revised to 84.3 German business sentiment was seen better than expected in July, which will bring some relief to economic expectations as we begin Q3

Prior month -4.5% revised to -4.0% Advanced Durable goods orders for June 03% versus 2.5% estimate Durable goods ex transportation 0.6% vs 0 8% estimate. Prior month 1.8% Durable goods ex defense 0.3% versus -4.3% last month. Prior month -4.3% Nondefense capital ex air 0.9% versus 0.8%. Prior month +1.9% Details of shipment, inventories: Manufactured durable goods shipments rose $2.4 billion

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar came back under pressure after some positive developments on the US-Iran front. In fact, the US halted its strikes after 13 days of attacks and Iran said it will maintain a ceasefire so long as the US remains on pause. This has led to some optimism as traders

Need to shift to responsible, proactive fiscal policy Will ensure trust in our finances through transparent communication with markets When we say responsible fiscal policy, we mean we will seek to achieve both economic growth and fiscal discipline We will seek to increase tax revenue by expanding GDP, will not resort to reckless fiscal spending

The market just posted a down week because Alphabet delivered perfectly solid results and got shelled anyway — capex guidance marched toward $200 billion and free cash flow went negative for the first time in its life as a public company. Tesla slid alongside it. The message from the tape was unmistakable: the era of

Hopes for a ceasefire deal is boosting market optimism to start the new week. And we’re seeing oil prices open with a gap down while equities are pushing up alongside precious metals and bond yields and the US dollar falls. Does all that sound familiar? Well, it’s not like we haven’t seen it before. That

Market update today: Nasdaq rebounds, oil retreats and Ethereum targets $2,150 TLDR: Risk appetite improved on July 27 as equity markets rebounded and oil retreated. Nasdaq cash has important support at 27,900-28,000, copper remains constructive above 6.30, natural gas risks falling toward 2.50, and Ethereum is targeting 2,140-2,150 after defending 1,963. The market began the

Monday starts off quietly, with no major scheduled events for the FX market apart from the U.S. durable goods orders m/m. On Tuesday, Japan will release the BoJ core CPI y/y, while in the U.S. the focus will be on the CB consumer confidence and the Richmond manufacturing index. Wednesday brings Australia’s inflation data, then

CXMT scores massive IPO, becomes the most-valuable company in mainland China Japan June services PPI 3.2% vs 3.3% prior Iran says it will halt strikes so long as US pause continues China June industrial profit YTD +18.7% vs +18.8% prior Xi tells Lula China ready to strengthen strategic coordination with Brazil Nvidia is in talks

At least one more rate hike will be needed Second round effecs costly to reverse, ECB must act before they are visible Deterioration of outlook would warrant more tightening than now expected Rate hike will be warranted even if inflation situation improves somewhat ECB’s Kazimir has been one of the most hawkish members of the

Chipmaker fever has hit mainland China with shares of CXMT jumping about 470% in the IPO debut. That gives it a market cap set to hit 3.3 trillion yuan, or $487 billion USD. The DRAM maker ChangXin Memory Technologies has been thrust into the spotlight this year as it competes with companies in Japan, South Korea

Uncertainty remains high Impact of energy shock will only be seen in the coming months Intensity and duration of the shock are crucial ECB’s goal is to ensure medium term inflation remains stable around 2% The decision will be made based on the data and projections we will receive in the coming weeks ECB’s Žigman

Prior was +3.3% (revised to 3.4%) This is a sequential improvement after two months at 3.3% y/y. It’s tough to imagine Japan facing inflation but we’re close to that point and last week’s oil rally certainly didn’t help. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The week ahead brings an unusually concentrated sequence of central-bank decisions, inflation reports and growth data. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will all be in focus, while US GDP, core PCE inflation, Eurozone CPI and Australian CPI may materially change expectations for interest rates. For traders, the important question is

Gold is trying to find a bottom. It’s been skipping along the $3900 level for a month now and was able to withstand the recent 13-day US bombing campaign of Iran without breaking to new lows. That’s a good sign for the bulls amidst reports that China has resumed buying.  Peace is a pre-requisite for

Early indications for the FX market this week Euro (EUR/USD): 1.1392, +0.0025 (+0.22%) — modest firming to kick off the week, holding within Friday’s 1.1386-1.1399 range Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): 163.67, -0.17 (-0.1%) — small pullback from the 163.84 close, still hovering near recent highs British Pound (GBP/USD): 1.3332, +0.0013 (+0.1%) — a touch firmer, sitting

The Iran war took a turn for the better on the weekend as the US halted strikes after 13 days and Iran said it will maintain a ceasefire so long as the US remains on pause. The developments have raised hopes for peace and that should lead to a negative start in the oil market.

Mon: BoC Market Participants Survey (Jul), Eurogroup Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Budget), Chinese Industrial Profits (Jun), German Ifo Expectations (Jul), US Durable Goods (Jun) Tue: French Consumer Confidence (Jul), Spanish Retail Sales (Jun), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US Goods Trade Balance Advance (Jun), Richmond Fed Manufacturing (Jul), Dallas Fed Services (Jul) Wed: Fed Policy Announcement (Jul),

tradeCompass methodology explained: How traders can use the investingLive market map Successful trading does not require predicting every market movement. It requires a clear plan for what to do if buyers take control, what to do if sellers take control, and how to manage the trade after entry. That is the purpose of tradeCompass, a

WTI crude oil futures settled at $89.31, down $2.88 (-3.12%) on the day after trading in a wide range between $87.68 and $92.83. Despite today’s sharp decline, crude still finished the week up $7.51, or 9.17%, highlighting just how volatile trading has been. From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows buyers made a run

The AUDUSD has spent the past eight trading days trapped in a relatively tight range between 0.6961 and 0.7026, with little sign of sustained directional conviction. Right in the middle of that range sit the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, currently at 0.6991 and 0.6994. If price action remains contained, those two averages will converge

US indices close mixed. Dow up. S&P unchanged. Nasdaq down Next week’s earnings calendar heats up Trump: Iran not ready to make a deal. Crude oil futures settled at $89.31 NY Times: Trump meets with top advisors to decide whether to increase military pressure on Iran EU fines today, Trump 301 tariffs tomorrow? US and

President Trump met Friday with top advisers and senior Cabinet officials to discuss whether to intensify the U.S. military campaign against Iran, according to a report from The New York Times. The meeting comes after the collapse of the ceasefire and the breakdown of a MOU that had been intended to bring Washington and Tehran

Pres. Trump is on TruthSocial saying:  “The European Union is at it again and, as usual, taking direct aim at GREAT American Companies! After having fined Apple, for no reason at all, 15 Billion Dollars, Meta, 3 Billion Dollars, Amazon 2.5 Billion Dollars, and many others, we have just been informed that Google, a truly

The United States and the United Kingdom are planning a high-level conference in London next week to discuss forming an international coalition to protect commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Axios. The meeting could bring together defense ministers and senior military leaders from Western and regional countries, with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete

The price of gold traded at its low for the week on Monday, but sellers could not sustain the downside momentum. The bearish bias began to deteriorate as the price moved back above its 100-hour moving average, a downward-sloping trendline, and its 200-hour moving average. Holding those levels as support during Tuesday’s trade gave buyers

Prior month manufacturing PMI 53.9 Prior month services PMI 51.2. Prior month composite PMI 51.9 Flash manufacturing PMI for July 53.8 versus 54.3 expected. This is a 4-month low but remains above the 50 level.  Flash services PMI for July 53.6 versus 51.5 expected. Strongest since November 2025 Flash composite PMI for July 53.6 versus 51.9

Reports from Iranian state-affiliated news agencies Fars and Tasnim said explosions were heard in Saudi Arabia early Friday. Fars claimed a drone struck logistics warehouses used by the U.S. Army, while Tasnim separately reported explosions in the kingdom without providing additional details. As of now, there has been no confirmation from Saudi officials, the U.S.

ADDED:  South Korea’s financial regulator said it is moving up the start date for a higher deposit requirement on retail trading of single stock leveraged ETFs to July 31, aiming to address market volatility. The Financial Services Commission said retail investors will need to hold a cash deposit of around 30 million won, roughly $20,000,

Key takeaway for gold traders today: August gold futures have recovered above $4,050, but buyers still need acceptance above $4,068 to strengthen the recovery. A break below $4,038 would suggest that the rebound is failing and could return the gold price toward the $4,031-$4,024 support cluster. August gold futures were trading near $4,055 at the

Prior month 0.618M revised higher from 0.580M previously reported. New-home sales for June 0.628M vs 0.610M estimate New-home sales percentage change 1.6% versus -4.3% last month Details on Inventories and Prices Inventory was down 0.2% from May (486,000) Inventory was down 3.2% from June 2025 (501,000) Months’ supply:9.3 months Supply was down slightly from 9.4 months in

Israel PMs office is reporting that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will be traveling to Washington to meet with Pres. Trump on Tuesday. Israel has recently been saying that they would not be an aggressor in the US Iranian war. President Trump has continued to strongly back Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reaffirming the close U.S.-Israel

WTI crude oil futures settled at $92.19, up $5.36 (+6.17%) on the day. The move follows a 9.08% surge on July 13, underscoring the strength of the recent rally as geopolitical tensions continue to fuel buying. From a technical perspective, the rally pushed the price back above its 100-day moving average at $89.71 for the

Prior 48.8 Manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 52.0 expected Prior 52.5 Composite PMI 52.1 vs 49.7 expected Prior 49.3 Key Findings: UK private sector business activity returns to growth in July Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “UK businesses reported stronger activity in July, pointing to a faster pace of economic

The USDCAD found a bottom on Monday, just above Friday’s low and key psychological support at 1.4000. The low reached 1.4003, attracting buyers who pushed the pair back above the falling 100-hour moving average. The rally extended into Tuesday, initially stalling ahead of the 200-hour moving average before buyers gained enough momentum later in the

The USDCHF has been grinding steadily higher throughout July, adding another modest gain today. The pair is up about 0.21% after recovering from an early European-session dip, with the rebound lifting the price to fresh 2026 highs and its highest level since June 2025. The session high reached 0.8184 so far. That advance has carried

Trump is posting on TruthSocial: There has been some speculation that the success of the Iranian missiles at targeting bases and such, as well aa the supply given the annihilation of there defense, suggests some nafarious help from the likes of China and Russia.  I do not know but Trump gives both leaders the benefit

The latest development is that Iran has rejected a ceasefire proposal from Iraq, believed to be passed on from US president Trump. The main excuse that Iran is going with this time is that the proposal fails to address the question of control over the Strait of Hormuz. Dum, dum, dum. Iran said that they were not

Deriv has brought its Derived Indices to TradingView.For existing traders, it’s another way into the 24/7 markets; for TradingView’s users, it’s a first look at indices they can only trade with Deriv.  The proposition is distinct from a conventional broker integration. Deriv is not simply adding another route to trade widely available markets. It is

I’ll get a post up with a preview of the Japanese inflation data separately. The Tokyo area data for June (Tokyo CPI comes out earlier than national CPI) indicated rising underlying inflation pressure: Tokyo core-core CPI rose to 1.9% in June as energy-driven inflation began spreading to food and other goods, keeping a July BOJ

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Gold erased most of the gains from the likely technical-driven rebound of the last couple of days. The rebound lacked support from the near-term fundamentals as the prolonged US-Iran conflict pushed oil prices even higher and traders increased rate hike bets. There’s not much to look at on the fundamental side than

Trading always involves an element of uncertainty. You can painstakingly analyse charts and carefully follow the news, but you will never know with 100% certainty what will happen next in the financial markets. That’s why successful traders rely on a strategy rather than gut instinct. A strategy turns uncertainty into a series of repeatable decisions,

Crude oil price analysis today: CL tests critical $90 support as sellers take control CL crude oil futures are tactically bearish after reversing sharply from $93.50, but the decline is now testing important support around $90.10-$90.30. Sellers retain control below $91.70-$91.85, although chasing the market lower at current prices offers less attractive reward-to-risk. A sustained

Prior +1.2% revised to 1.4% PPI MoM -1.4% vs -0.4% expected PPI YoY 12.4% vs 13.6% last month Raw Material Price index MoM -6.9% vs 0.5% last month Raw Material Price index YoY 20.7% vs 33.4% lst month Details of the PPI data: Main driver: A tentative U.S.-Iran agreement eased concerns over shipping through the

Prior was -0.3% The latest reading suggests that price pressures in the new home market remain subdued, although the pace of declines has eased. Elevated borrowing costs, affordability challenges, and softer housing demand continue to weigh on builders’ pricing power, despite the gradual stabilization seen in recent months. While the smaller monthly decline points to

USD/JPY has been a key focus in trading this week and all the while as oil prices ramp higher alongside bond yields, the currency pair is also gradually pushing up in hitting fresh 40-year highs. After some trepidation in May, it has been one-way traffic for the currency pair in recent weeks. That being said,

Gold’s break below the $4,040 line points to renewed downside momentum rather than a stabilising range, with the move extending to around $4,025 in Asia trading. The decline continues to reflect the same dynamic seen through this conflict, where rising oil driven inflation expectations and firmer rate bets are outweighing the usual safe haven pull of

ECB is in a good position to respond to surging energy prices We are still facing intense uncertainty The rate hike in June already put us in a good position from which we can monitor further developments closely We are seeing in the Middle East that the situation remains highly fragile ECB should not pre-committ

July flash services PMI 51.6 vs 49.8 expected Prior 49.4 July flash manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.4 July flash composite PMI 51.9 vs 50.3 expected Prior 50.3 It’s all good news for the euro area economy to start Q3, with better readings across both the services and manufacturing sectors. Overall business activity

The planned increase confirms Opec+ is treating its monthly quota schedule as fixed policy rather than a lever to cool prices, even with Brent above $100 and a second chokepoint now under threat. Because Saudi, Iraqi and Kuwaiti output remains constrained by the wider conflict, the nominal hike is unlikely to translate into meaningfully more

June retail sales +1.0% vs -0.3% m/m expected Prior +1.2% June retail sales +4.2% vs +2.3% y/y expected Prior +3.2%; revised to +3.5% June retail sales (ex fuel, autos) +1.1% vs -0.4% m/m expected Prior +1.2% June retail sales (ex fuel, autos) +5.4% vs +3.2% y/y expected Prior +4.6%; revised to +4.9% UK retail sales

Prior 50.3 Services PMI 49.6 vs 49.0 expected Prior 48.6 Composite PMI 51.2 vs 49.8 expected Prior 49.5 Key findings: German PMI climbs back into growth territory in July, driven by expansion in manufacturing production Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The German economy made a positive start to the

The main focus in markets is still on US-Iran tensions and that hasn’t really changed much since the start of the week. From earlier: Middle East tensions remain heightened with the weekend drawing closer But after four days of grappling with more doom and gloom, the mood in markets today is hinting at a bit of

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

ICYMI – Iran rejects Trump ceasefire offer carried by Iraqi PM, NYT reports Gold extends slide below $4,040 support to test $4,025 as yields bite Asian shares slump as AI spending fears and oil spike hit sentiment, rates Preview – BOJ to hold next week, keep inflation overshoot warning. but see risks easing Trump losing

August consumer sentiment -29.6 vs -28.5 expected Prior -29.2; revised to -29.3 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The collapse of this mediation attempt removes one of the few visible diplomatic channels still operating between Washington and Tehran, reinforcing the view that a near term negotiated de-escalation is unlikely. Iran’s explicit warning that it would expand the conflict to Tel Aviv and push its Houthi allies to close Bab al-Mandeb if Trump strikes

Gold has pulled back from this week’s highs near $4,150 to hold just above $4,040, a level that has acted as support since mid July. The retreat comes even as the Middle East conflict widens, underscoring how this cycle’s rate and dollar dynamics are overriding the expected “flight to safety” that’s been absent this whole

A more sanguine BOJ tone, even alongside a repeated 2% overshoot warning, points to continuity rather than a hawkish surprise at next week’s meeting, with rates expected to hold at 1%. The shift in focus toward how much of the cost increase firms pass on to households, rather than the immediate oil shock itself, suggests

The pickup in the composite output index to 52.6 from 50.4 signals a second straight month of expansion and the strongest reading since the start of the year, driven almost entirely by services rather than manufacturing. The return to new order growth after four months of decline, together with the fastest hiring since April, points

The new duties are close in size to the expiring 10 percent global tariff, so the immediate price and trade flow impact should be limited. The more significant signal is durability: basing the levies on Section 301 rather than the emergency powers struck down by the Supreme Court gives the administration a legally sturdier platform

Just the data this post, I’ll have more to come on this separately.  — Japan Inflation Rate June 2026: Headline Y/Y 1.7% expected 1.7%, prior .5% Core (ex-food) Y/Y 1.6% expected 1.6%, prior 1.4% Ex-Food and Energy Y/Y 1.7%, AKA core-core, slowest rise since Agust 2022 expected 2%, prior 1.8% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The argument here is that the market is underpricing risk relative to the underlying supply picture, given that Hormuz, Bab el Mandeb and the CPC terminal are simultaneously constrained in a way that did not apply in March. A near six dollar front month Brent backwardation points to acute near term tightness, reinforced by crude

The Treasury’s language keeps pressure on Tokyo to accelerate policy normalisation, but it stops short of any direct US action, leaving the yen’s fate largely in the Bank of Japan’s hands. With the currency at a 40-year low and Japanese authorities already signalling readiness to intervene against excessive volatility, traders are likely to stay alert

Trying to find something positive about the U.S. stock market today is like putting lipstick on a pig—you simply can’t dress up a session this ugly. Stocks were hammered as escalating Middle East tensions fueled a broad risk-off move across financial markets. Oil prices surged more than 5%, adding to inflation concerns, while Treasury yields