Uncategorized

Via oilprice.com, although I have added in some of the missing pieces from other sources: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US May housing starts 1.177 million versus 1.430 million estimate US May import prices +1.9% vs +1.0% expected Trump says Iran deal should be successful, reiterates Iran will never have nuclear weapon Trump says he expects second stage of Iran deal to go quickly Fed preview: Warsh walks into a minefield — a look at

There is a something of a tradition at the Federal Reserve of rookie Chairmen causing themselves problems early in their terms, or in their first press conferences. It’s a rare event that begs for a live feed and strong preparation. On Wednesday, the market isn’t sure what to expect and that’s why the US dollar

Crude oil futures are settling at $76.05 – its lowest close since March 3. The futures settled down $4.70 or -5.82%. Technically, the settled price is now within $1.57 of it 200 day moving average the price is not traded below that level since February 17 when the moving average was near $62.10. On the

The NASDAQ surged higher on Monday following the weekend developments, gapping above both its 200-hour moving average (26,284.98) and 100-hour moving average (26,383.84). That move shifted the near-term technical bias firmly back in favor of the buyers. For the sellers to regain control, they would need to push the index back below those key moving

Small wiggle only for the NZD on this. May 2026 Food Price Inflation +1.0% m/m prior 0% for the y/y +3.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USD is moving lower helped by lower oil, and lower rates. Crude oil is trading down around five dollars and $75.82, and getting closer to its next key target at the rising 200 day moving average at $73.47 The 10 year yield is now down -4.4 basis points at 4.423% Looking at some of

High yield 4.927% WI level at the time of the auction 4.937% Tail -1.0 basis points versus average of -0.1 basis points Bid to cover 2.75X versus average of 2.65X Directs (domestic demand) 19.9% versus average of 24.3% Indirects (international demand) 73.2% versus average of 64.9% Dealers 8.5% versus average of 10.8% Auction Grade A-

The RBA left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that both headline and underlying inflation remain above target. Policymakers also highlighted elevated uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, particularly the impact that ongoing Middle East tensions could have on global energy prices. While the statement retained a cautious tone, some of the more hawkish language was softened.

WTI crude is now down more than 5% to $76.01 on a report that the US will allow Iran to immediately sell oil when the deal is signed. There was some speculation it would be phased or slow walked along with Iran opening the Strait. Obviously, there was pressure on Trump to do a deal

The analyst consensus is constructive on risk assets but explicitly not euphoric. Oil majors are flagged as likely to give back gains as the war premium unwinds, with BP and Shell already underperforming since late March in anticipation of a deal. Emerging market equities and local currencies are the preferred expression of the trade, underpinned

The relative calm in JGBs ahead of the decision reflects a market that has already done its pricing work. A hike to 1% is not the story; Deputy Governor Uchida’s forward guidance at the 0630 GMT briefing is. Any signal of an accelerated path toward 1.25% would put fresh upward pressure on yields and the

The USDCAD began the new trading day near its session low at 1.3985, just above the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the March 2025 high to the January 2026 low at 1.39839. Importantly for buyers, that low remained comfortably above the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.39726 and well above a key swing area

Iran deal should be successful Iran deal is a fair, good deal Iran deal goes to a second stage We’re not investing any money in Iran Iran will never have a nuclear weapon All hell will break out in Iran if Iran tries to get a nuclear weapon We’re dealing with rational people in Iran

The price of crude oil continues to slide, with WTI now trading around the $77 level, down roughly $3.70, or 4.6%, on the day. The decline extends a sharp three-day selloff that has seen prices fall 5.9%, 2.5%, and now another 4.6%, as traders continue to unwind the geopolitical risk premium that had been built

The bears are making something of a stand. US stock markets opened higher but have reversed and now the Nasdaq is lower by 0.5%. It’s a mixed bag in terms of names and memes as Western Digital remains up 6.5% (though it was up 10%) and Intel falls 5.7%. The latter name is carving out

📈 Sector Overview The U.S. stock market showcases a mixed picture today, primarily driven by sharp declines in the technology sector, particularly in semiconductors, while financial sectors and consumer cyclical stocks exhibit strength. 🔻 Technology & Semiconductors: A challenging day with industry leaders like Nvidia (NVDA) falling by 1.78%. Other major players such as AMD

Oil is on my radar.1. This is starting to look like capitulation. WTI is down another $3.13 to $77.26 today and is down dramatically from $91.62 last Thursday. The driver is obviously the peace in Hormuz and Trump repeatedly saying the Strait will be opened this week. That’s a positive timeline and a reason to

more to come Chinese House Price Index for May 2026 -3.5% y/y prior -3.5% The m/m is -0.2% prior -0.1% I posted this yesterday on strenuous efforts from China: Chinese municipalities ramp housing subsidies, provident fund rules to stabilise property This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Cannot reveal governor Ueda’s view But his broader view remains the same as he has discussed before Ueda’s hospitalisation is short-term, don’t see any impact on monetary policy conduct Well, it has only been about a week since Ueda took his leave of absence. So, it is a fair assumption to think that the decision

Iranian tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz as the US lifts its naval blockade Trump says Iran deal should be successful, reiterates Iran will never have nuclear weapon Iran outlines that nuclear talks will include enrichment, stockpile, and its nuclear needs German economic sentiment picks up in June as US-Iran conflict simmers down Oil

At the close: Not the best finish to the day Shares of SpaceX rise 16% as retail piles in Crude oil sets the topside risk with the run lower today Netanyahu: We will remain in Lebanon as long as we need to Trump/US Senior Official and Trump: Strait of Hormuz will be fully open on

The USD is little changed with all the major currencies within 0.12% of the closing level from yesterday. The high to low trading ranges are also confined. EURUSD: 38 pips USDJPY: 30 pips GBPUSD: 40 pips USDCHF: 18 pips USDCAD: 33 pips AUDUSD: 35 pips NZDUSD: 40 pips Looking at the 3 major currency pairs

She says that she won’t offer any comments on the BOJ decision until after the press conference by deputy governor Uchida later. As a reminder, BOJ governor Ueda wasn’t present at this meeting as he was admitted to the hospital last week here. As such, Uchida will also be filling in for the BOJ press

The decision is a clean hawkish package with one dovish structural element. The rate hike and the explicit commitment to continue raising rates are unambiguous. The bond taper pause from April 2027, fixing monthly JGB purchases at around 2 trillion yen, is the complicating factor: it removes a source of upward yield pressure at the

Previews: BOJ, expected 0230 – 0330 GMT: Former BOJ economist Kameda says hike to 1% Daiwa sees BOJ June hike BOJ to raise short-term policy rate to 1% RBA: Westpac sees RBA hold June RBA seen holding This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was +1.9% (revised to +2.0%) Import prices up 6.7% y/y Export prices +1.3% vs +1.2% expected Prior export prices +3.3% (revised to +3.5%) The US dollar is relatively flat today ahead of the data as we wait for Wednesday’s FOMC decision. This report will give them a bit extra to think about on the

Comments from Trump: Will release text of Iran agreement in a formal setting MOU states clearly Iran will not have a nuclear weapon Will have a news conference on the Iran deal Will go over Iran MOU with media in a couple days Agreement is about one thing: Iran will never have a nuclear weapon

Current conditions -81.0 vs -78.0 expected Prior -77.8 Outlook 10.5 vs -6.0 expected Prior -10.2 The current conditions reading might be poor, falling to its weakest since December last year. However, the good news is that the outlook reading has rebounded back to positive territory. And that likely reflects the optimism tied to the latest

A clean 25bp hike with unchanged forward guidance would be the least market-moving outcome and is broadly what consensus expects. The risk events sit on either side: a 50bp move or a hawkish dissent from the reflationary wing of the board would steepen the JGB curve and put a bid under the yen, while any

Prior month housing starts 1.465 million revised lower 21.392 million Prior month building permits 1.442 million . Data for May: Housing starts 1.177M vs 1.430 million estimate Housing starts -15.4% vs -8.5% last month last mont Building Permits 1.413M vs 1.420M estimate Building permits -0.7% versus +5.8% last month. Housing starts fall sharply: Single-family housing

Oil markets are pricing in relief that may arrive well ahead of actual supply normalisation. Even at the optimistic end of analyst forecasts, energy flows through the strait are unlikely to exceed half of prewar levels within the first month, and a full recovery stretches toward late 2026 or beyond. War-risk insurance premiums remain at

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW After the surprising US-Iran breakthrough on Thursday, gold has erased all last week’s losses as traders pared back rate hike bets on expectations of lower oil prices and easing inflation concerns. In the short-term, the focus continues to be on this new development, so we can expect the bullish bias to hold (all

Iranian oil tankers successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz after the US lifted its naval blockade, marking one of the clearest signs yet that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two countries is beginning to take effect. According to Iranian state-linked outlet ISNA, citing Deputy Foreign Minister officials, Iran confirmed that the US

Energy markets face a drawn-out normalisation even if Friday’s MOU signing proceeds without incident. S&P’s projection that second-half 2026 shipping volumes will run at roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels puts a ceiling on any near-term price relief. Insurance constraints, infrastructure damage, and residual risk aversion are expected to suppress flows well into 2027, keeping the

BOJ hikes to 1%, pauses bond taper from April 2027 and flags inflation overshoot risk Bank of Japan 25bp rate hike to 1%, as widely expected Goldman cuts Brent forecast to $80 for 2026, $75 for 2027 on Hormuz deal China May data: industrial output beats but retail sales post first fall since 2022 BOJ

Further rate hikes will depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions There is risk of underlying inflation deviating upwards to the level above the price target Important for underlying inflation to stabilise around 2% level Uncertainties remain with regards to situation in the Middle East Need to pay close attention to how said developments

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The surprising US-Iran breakthrough last Thursday triggered a selloff in crude oil as traders started to unwind the hedges and positioned for lower prices on expectations of resumption of normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming months. As mentioned last week, the downside was more likely as the upside was

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the board, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1540 and 1.1600 levels. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could limit price movements for the currency pair in the session ahead at least. The ones at

The framework agreement for the memorandum of understanding this week can be said to be the “easy part”. And that says a lot about how the next phase of talks is going to proceed, considering the circumstances. That being nuclear discussions between the two sides. And Iran is quick to outline what the key argument

The talks reflect a structural shift in Pentagon procurement strategy rather than a near-term catalyst for either stock. Lockheed’s supply-chain bottlenecks are a known constraint on its ability to scale interceptor and strike weapon output, and GM’s manufacturing capacity offers a partial workaround for commodity components rather than high-end systems. The overlap between automotive parts

CPI +3.2% vs +3.2% y/y prelim Prior +2.7% HICP +3.2% vs +3.3% y/y prelim Prior +2.8% The final estimates here confirm that Italy’s headline annual inflation accelerated in May, largely due to the energy price dynamics. Of note, prices for non-regulated energy products were seen up 12.5% compared to a year ago (+9.5% prior) and

Accessing US equity markets remains a structurally broken process for most international participants. Non-US residents routinely face steep capital minimums, complex cross-border wire transfers, and exclusionary onboarding practices from legacy brokerages. These barriers effectively lock a massive demographic out of the world’s most liquid equity markets. Addressing this inefficiency requires a shift in infrastructure. Fractional

Not ruling out further tightening if needed Understand that current situation is difficult for households But that is why it is important for us to get on top of inflation Reports of a peace deal in the Middle East is good news Flow of data has been consistent with our expectations More comments from the

I’ll have more to come on this separately. Background: BOJ set to hit 1% but vote split, bond taper pause and July signals are the real story JGBs steady, Nikkei eases from record high as BOJ rate decision looms Former BOJ economist Kameda says hike to 1% Daiwa sees BOJ June hike BOJ to raise

The Iran peace framework has effectively superseded this week’s central bank calendar as the dominant market driver, with oil price direction doing more work on currencies like the Australian dollar than any RBA statement could. The BOJ hike is fully priced and unlikely to move the yen materially unless accompanied by coordinated FX intervention. The

The data reinforces a China growth narrative that is increasingly uncomfortable for commodity and consumer-facing markets. The retail sales miss, the first contraction since December 2022, is not a rounding error and points to a domestic demand problem that government trade-in schemes and holiday spending have failed to arrest. Fixed asset investment falling more than

This is Goldman’s second downward revision in a week, which gives the cuts additional weight as a directional signal rather than a knee-jerk reaction. The bring-forward of Persian Gulf export normalisation by a month, to end-July from end-August, is the mechanical driver of the forecast change and implies a more optimistic read on mine clearance,

USD/JPY has been poking and prodding at levels above 160.00 since last week. And traders are yet to find much conviction to take things to the next level. Intervention risks are very much heightened at this stage, with current levels being where Tokyo last decided to take action at the end of April. To their

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Brent at $83 and WTI at $80 both remain well above pre-war levels, and the path back is constrained by inventory, insurance and messaging. The key market signal to watch is not ships exiting the Gulf but ships returning to load, the distinction analysts are drawing between a temporary opening and a durable one. Shipping

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Injects 449.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran’s Mehr news agency says Sound of three explosions heard south of Qeshm Island, Strait of Hormuz Explosions occurred in Strait of Hormuz area are possibly linked to traffic management Sound of three explosions heard south of Qeshm Island, Strait of Hormuz This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

May month data from China. Industrial Production 4.5% y/y expected 4.2%, prior 4.1% Retail Sales -0.6% y/y, first decline since the pandemic expected flat at 0%, prior 0.2% Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) -4.1% y/y expected -2%, prior -1.6%, Unemployment Rate 5.1% expected 5.2%, prior 5.2% I’ll have more to come on this separately – Earlier:

A hike to 1% is essentially fully priced by markets, so the immediate yen and JGB reaction will hinge on Deputy Governor Uchida’s tone at the post-meeting briefing. Any signal of a faster-than-expected path toward 1.25% would put fresh upward pressure on the yen and weigh on Japanese equities. The Iran peace framework introduces a

By any measure it was a great day for the US stock market but I’m going to highlight some of the negatives anyway. But first, here are the closing changes: S&P 500 +1.6% Nasdaq Comp +3.1% Russell 2000 +0.9% DJIA +0.9% The Russell 2000 hit a record but it closed near the lows of the

USD/CAD is slightly lower today but the loonie isn’t getting the same kind of lift that we’re seeing in the Australian dollar as the risk trade ramps up today on the end of the war in Iran. The main reason for the sluggish CAD performance is the fall in crude oil prices. WTI is down

News of note: Pakistani PM: Announce the reaching of a peace agreement between America and Iran Its very thin trading conditions here in Asia at this time of the week, only New Zealand is active with Australia soon: 5.30am in Tokyo and 4.30am in Singapore and Hong Kong We’ll get oil and equities response soon,

The market is breathing a sigh of relief on the war in Iran today and it’s leading to some big moves. The most-consequential one is in oil, with WTI crude down $4.50 to $80.38 after briefly touching below $80. If those levels hold, it means we’re past the worst of the inflationary shock and will

The Strait is not opening up immediately. The promises already being wound back. It took one hour from ‘open immediately’ to 5 days away. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There are a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 and 1.1625 levels. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could help to limit price action in the session ahead as traders digest the US-Iran deal.

This feels like stepping back in time to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the euro area trade balance returns back to deficit territory again now. The €1.0 billion deficit (unadjusted) in April comes after a surplus of €4.9 billion in March. Compared to April last year, exports were seen up by 5.0% but imports were seen

Another day, another lie from this guy: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD gapped higher at the Asia-Pacific open and initially extended gains before rotating lower to a session low of 1.15937. Buyers stepped back in from that level, helping lift the pair to a high near 1.1622. Since then, price action has settled into a relatively narrow range, with the pair oscillating between those extremes

Trump says a U.S.-Iran deal is imminent, covering nuclear weapons and an immediate Hormuz reopening, with sanctions relief possible but no cash transfer; Iran has not confirmed. Summary: Source: Wall Street Journal (gated) Trump planned to issue an imminent statement confirming a U.S.-Iran agreement, to be signed by himself or Vice President JD Vance Iran

Prior was +0.7% (revised to +0.9%) Capacity utilization 76.2% vs 76.2% expected (prior was 76.1%) Manufacturing output 0.0% vs +0.2% expected (+0.6% prior) Mining output +1.3% vs +0.2% prior Utilities -0.4% vs +2.2% prior The revision to the prior makes this a better reading than it initially looked like. There was cyclical weakness in industry

An Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon killed the vehicle driver, according to a security source cited by Reuters. This really calls into question whether a peace will hold, as Bibi appears to have no interest in stopping the fighting. Separately, a US military advisor said ships should not attempt to cross Hormuz until the

The USDCAD is trading modestly lower on the day, but notably is not seeing aggressive selling despite the weekend developments in the Middle East. As the conflict appears to be moving toward a resolution, market attention may shift back to trade negotiations. That could put renewed focus on U.S.-Canada relations and, in particular, discussions surrounding

Today marks the official CME roll date for U.S. equity index futures, the Monday prior to the third Friday of the expiry month, and liquidity in the June contracts will deteriorate through the session as volume migrates to September. Traders still holding June positions face widening spreads and deteriorating fill quality from here; the window

The removal of the 5% cap is the most structurally significant element for gold flows: eligible funds and family offices in Singapore have been constrained in their physical allocation and lifting that ceiling opens meaningful incremental demand from one of Asia’s deepest pools of managed capital. The central bank vaulting announcement by October is a

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Thursday after Trump cancelled the planned attacks on Iran and announced a deal to be signed in the following days. As a result, Fed rate hike expectations got pared back immediately with the market now pricing in 16 bps of tightening by year-end compared

This indicator has been running hot lately: Prior was +3.0% Wholesale trade +0.6% vs +0.1% expected Prior wholesale trade +1.9% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Israel struck Beirut; Trump publicly rebuked Netanyahu; Iran rejected a U.S. restraint offer and vowed an Islamic response, threatening a peace deal Trump said was close. Netanyahu and Trump have reportedly spoken. Summary: Sources: Channel 12; Trump Truth Social post; Iran Supreme National Security Council statement Israel conducted fresh strikes on Beirut Trump contacted Netanyahu

Prior was revised to 278.4 Housing activity propelled the Canadian economy for years but those days are done, particularly if the Bank of Canada begins raising rates later this year. On that front, a peace in Iran should help lower oil prices but I’m skeptical that we will get much below $75-80 as inventories need

The BOJ hiking to 1% on Tuesday would mark the highest short-term policy rate in 31 years and represents a significant JPY catalyst regardless of the Iran deal outcome. The former economist’s framing, that the peace deal may reduce pressure for faster hikes but does not alter the twice-yearly cadence, is a nuanced signal: it

I still see upside risks to inflation The ECB is ready to act again if needed The ECB can move gradually ECB’s Kazaks said that inflation risks in the Eurozone remain tilted to the upside despite improving geopolitical conditions following the recent US-Iran agreement. His remarks come just days after the ECB raised interest rates

Equities catching a solid bid on the news of the US-Iran peace proposal. MoU due to be signed Friday. Hopefully. Iran confirms ceasefire MOU with U.S. but warns finger stays on the trigger This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Both the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank are expected to leave interest rates unchanged when they announce their policy decisions on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is under pressure following news of a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. That development triggered a gap lower in USDCHF, sending

Prior was +19.6 New orders +3.5 vs +22.7 prior Shipments +8.6 vs +18.9 prior Prices paid +61.0 vs +62.6 prior Prices received +31.4 vs +31.8 prior Employment +9.6 vs +8.3 prior Supply availability -13.9 vs -10.7 prior (lowest since June 2022) Six-month outlook +30.1 vs +33.5 prior The headline gave back fourteen points after May’s

US equity index futures peace gap higher. Oil is lower on the reopening of Hormuz news. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Silk is on the dovish side of a knife-edge split, speaking into a labour market that makes the case for holding look stronger by the week. the RBNZ will be issuing no speech notes for this. Summary: Silk addresses the Craigs Investment Partners Women’s Wealth Breakfast in Tauranga, drawing solely from May MPS slides with

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Shiptracking data is showing that a LNG tanker chartered by India’s Petronet has crossed the Strait of Hormuz today. The vessel is said to be headed east to the exit of the strait after having been stranded on the west side for over three months already. Data from Kpler and LSEG showed the vessel picking

Prior was 37 Current conditions 38 vs 40 prior Buyer traffic 25 vs 25 prior Sales expectations for six months 45 vs 45 prior With the war ending and oil prices lower, my guess is that the bottom is in for this indicator. The US housing industry has been in a deep recession since the

Headlines: US, Iran reportedly to hold preparatory talks in Doha before signing MOU deal Israel says it is not bound by Lebanon ceasefire clause in the MOU agreement India LNG tanker carrying Qatari cargo crosses Strait of Hormuz after US-Iran deal What now after the stellar SpaceX debut on Friday? ECB President Lagarde welcomes US-Iran

The USD is lower to start the week on the back of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran. In the video above I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective to kickstart the North American session of the trading

The scale of the policy rollout, more than 470 municipal measures in a single year with over 250 targeting provident fund mechanics specifically, signals that Beijing is tolerating and encouraging a broad-based local government response to property market weakness rather than waiting for a centralised stimulus package. The provident fund focus is tactically significant: raising

With so many eyes focused on what was the biggest IPO launch last week, SpaceX’s debut played out very well against all expectations. The question now though is, what comes next for what is now the sixth-largest listed company by market value in the US? For starters, expect things to get more volatile in the

Precious metals are seeing a good start to the new week with the mood music helped by the US and Iran agreeing to a memorandum of understanding (MOU) deal. The final details are yet to be confirmed but they are likely to reflect the speculated terms from last week here. That is seeing risk trades

Trump tweet re this: Pakistani PM: Announce the reaching of a peace agreement between America and Iran The USD has been marked lower in thin early Asia trade on the back of the peace news Says he’ll remove the blockade. Trump seems to assess the wrestling as the bigger news. This article was written by

The mine-clearance detail on Hormuz is the most operationally significant element for energy markets: reopening is gradual, not immediate, and contingent on Iranian forces completing a process that has no independent verification mechanism specified. That introduces execution risk into what markets have been trading as a clean supply catalyst. The oil sales waiver for the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Thursday after Trump cancelled the planned attacks on Iran and announced a deal to be signed in the following days. As a result, Fed rate hike expectations got pared back immediately with the market now pricing in 16 bps of tightening by year-end compared

We can only welcome what a peace deal means for Hormuz We have started to see second-round effects We are looking very closely at services ECB President Christine Lagarde struck a cautiously optimistic tone welcoming the inflation relief that could stem from easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while emphasizing that the ECB remains

The market opened the week with news of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran to sign a peace deal on Friday, which would see the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Aside from that, Monday has no major scheduled economic events for the FX market. Tuesday brings the BoJ monetary policy announcement in Japan and the

At this point, it feels like the US and Iran just want to put an end to the conflict. And after three-and-a-half months, it seems that both sides have had enough. That is good news for markets, to a certain extent at least. Couple that with what arguably was a very successful debut for SpaceX

Wholesale price index -0.6% m/m Prior +2.0% Wholesale price index +5.9% y/y Prior +6.3% The monthly drop comes with a bit of a caveat as it reflects the reduction in the energy tax rate on petroleum products (-7.3%). But when compared to the same month a year ago, wholesale prices remain significantly higher still. That

Pakistan PM Sharif announced a U.S.-Iran peace deal with an immediate, permanent ceasefire on all fronts including Lebanon; a formal signing ceremony is set for 19 June in Switzerland. Summary: Source: Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif statement Pakistan PM Sharif announced a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran following intensive talks Both sides declared

Qatar will be the ones mediating this and they will also host separate sessions with both the US and Iran delegations to establish the technical framework. The whole point of the meeting is also to resolve any critical differences that remain and finalise the text that will be signed after, expected on Friday. Once this

Trump spoke with the New York Times in a phone interview. says he reached a deal, despite objections from Israeli PM Netanyahu described Netanyahu as “very difficult” says US will resume Iran strikes if it can’t reach a nuclear accord This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran peace deal won’t derail BOJ rate hike to 31-year high on Tuesday, ex-BOJ economist Chinese municipalities ramp housing subsidies, provident fund rules to stabilise property ICYMI: From Hormuz to highly enriched uranium: the key terms of the U.S.-Iran agreement Singapore to remove fund 5% cap on gold physical investment PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference

Israeli media is now reporting that Netanyahu has informed Trump that Israel is not bound by the Lebanon ceasefire clause set out in the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the US and Iran. Adding that the Israeli army will continue its deployment at sites spread across Lebanon and will respond to any attacks from Hezbollah.

The MOU detail is more market-moving than the headline agreement. Oil sanctions suspended on Iranian crude and petrochemical sales is an immediate supply-side overhang: Iranian barrels re-entering the market within weeks will pressure Brent and WTI, compounding the Hormuz reopening signal. The 30-day timeline on both the blockade lift and strait reopening gives traders a

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. How does it do that? More here. Injects 425bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. ps, Bloomberg report: “Chinese municipalities are intensifying property support measures by expanding housing subsidy programs and

Yonhap reporting. The won had already seen some bids due to the US-Iran peace MoU but this verbal support is helping too. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The E4 statement adds Western institutional weight to the MOU but introduces an immediate friction point: the joint demand for unconditional and unrestricted Hormuz navigation sits in direct conflict with the MOU’s own text, which places reopening under Iranian arrangements. That gap between European expectations and the deal’s actual terms will be a live negotiating

Still awaiting a deal signing. As a confounding factor Israel has attacked Beirut and are awaiting retaliatory attacks from Iran. Checking in on early FX, some small negative sentiment only: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran’s confirmation removes the an ambiguity from the Pakistan-brokered announcement and gives crude markets a firm signal to sell the geopolitical premium. The Hormuz dimension is now operationally specific: marine traffic through the Gulf will be regulated by Iran in coordination with Oman, a framework that implies managed rather than unconditional reopening, and traders should

Is PH stock a buy? Parker Hannifin’s bullish technical setup as the robotics theme gains attention Key takeaways for long term stock investors Parker Hannifin (PH) is one of the industrial names that may benefit from the long-term automation and robotics theme. PH recently corrected about 20% from its all-time high, then rebounded strongly. The

MON: G7 Summit (15-17 Jun), German Wholesale Prices (May), Indian WPI (May), EZ Industrial Production (Apr), US Industrial Production (May) TUE: BoJ Policy Announcement (Jun), RBA Policy Announcement (Jun), G7 Summit (15-17 Jun), Chinese Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May), Unemployment Rate (May), Italian HICP Final (May), EZ/German ZEW Survey (Jun), US ADP Employment Change

The major stock indices all closed higher on the day helped by the the framework for a deal between Iran and the US/Israel. Reports indicated that the United States, Iran, and Pakistan have made significant progress toward a peace agreement aimed at ending the conflict, with negotiators suggesting a framework deal is close at hand.

Gold isn’t getting much attention today as the SpaceX IPO steals all the bandwidth and we wait on some clarity on Iran but I think it’s a clear peace trade. The main catalyst will ultimately be reserves managers as they add to holdings in a messy world with a US President willing to enter a

Iranian finance minister: End of war on all fronts will be announced under interim deal At least $10 billion for Iran to be unlocked in Iran deal Trump says the terms of the Iran deal that leaked out are fake. Upset about drone attacks Iranian Foreign Minister says the memorandum of understanding has never been

Here are some comments from Araghchi on local TV: ENd of war in Lebanon means Israel’s withdrawal from occupied areas Interim deal is first step, if not implemented, there will be no nuclear talks End of US blockade and reopening of Hormuz is part of the interim deal Says enemies like Israel are against a

Trump spent years railing against the $1.7 cash settlement the US paid out to Iran in 2016 and now there is this: Reuters reports that the UAE will unlock “at least” $10 billion in frozen Iranian funds and that he first $3 billion is already delivered. Two separate sources say the dagreement is for $20

Bitcoin pushed higher today, reaching a session high of $64,349 as risk sentiment improved across broader markets. The week’s low was established on Wednesday at $60,679, comfortably above last week’s low of $59,104. While the overall trading range has been relatively modest, the price action has helped improve the near-term technical picture. The recent consolidation

Prior +3.2% HICP +3.6% vs +3.6% y/y prelim Prior +3.5%; revised to +3.6% Core CPI +3.0% y/y Prior +2.8% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

We have lift-off. SpaceX opening price is at $150. That is down from the earlier indicative prices between $170 to $175 but still above the $135 IPO price. Recall that Cerebras IPO opened well above its IPo price and rose to a high of $386.34 on the first day of trading. It’s shares are now

Sector Overview The US stock market showcased a complex landscape today, with technology stocks primarily leading the way. The semiconductor sector saw significant momentum, thanks to some impressive performances. NVDA rose by 0.54% and AMD skyrocketed by 5.39%, contributing to a bullish sentiment in the sector. Notably, TXN’s impressive gain of 1.14% further supports this

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

US-Iran Schrödinger’s cat deal: signed and unsigned at once. Where are we at? Markets surge as Trump announces deal with Iran Breaking: Trump cancels scheduled attacks on Iran today, says there is an agreement US sells 30-year bonds at 5.020% vs 5.008% WI US 30 year fixed-rate mortgage averages 6.52% up from 6.48% last week

The statement reads primarily as posturing aimed at domestic and regional audiences, asserting strength rather than explicitly rejecting any deal. Still, the rhetoric of continued strikes and a closed Strait of Hormuz reinforces the disconnect between Washington’s framing of an imminent agreement and the security situation on the ground. For oil markets, the signal is

Headlines: Iran will not restore Strait of Hormuz status to pre-war level – IRNA The US-Iran MoU could be signed as soon as Sunday in Geneva – BBG Here is what the US-Iran deal looks set to be like after another TACO moment Iran media says that memorandum of understanding draft still not yet finalised

VP Vance is on the wires saying: Seeing a lot of fake information about a potential deal to reopen Strait and ending Iran’s nuclear weapons program. HMMMM.. I thought those were two of the main goals in the process. Vance adds: Iranians are not receiving any cash No funds are being released for simply signing

There is some confusion. The headline says that SpaceX opened at $172 per share but a subsequent headline now reads that SpaceX is indicated at $170. I don’t see price action and CNBC is muddling along with an interview with Gwynne Shotwel SpaceX Pres and COO. I don’t think that is how the first trade

The broader U.S. stock indices rallied yesterday on optimism surrounding a reported ceasefire agreement in the Middle East. Today, however, markets gave back some of those gains after Iran appeared to push back on parts of the deal, creating renewed uncertainty. Despite the early weakness, stocks have bounced off their lows following a stronger-than-expected University

The draft includes US commitment to lift sanctions, withdraw its forces from around Iran US to cancel oil sanctions and release Iran’s frozen funds Also includes commitment for the US to lift its naval blockade The memorandum of understanding also includes reopening of Strait of Hormuz Final negotiations after this will focus on nuclear and

The Iranian Foreign Minister is saying that: The memorandum of understanding has never been closer the signing is pending its finalization He comments that the media should refrain from entering into speculation about its contents The details of the deal will be forthcoming A diplomatic source is also commenting that the US and Iran have

The launch extends round-the-clock access to two of the most actively traded commodity benchmarks, catering to a retail and active-trader base that has shown surging demand for micro-sized contracts amid heightened geopolitical risk. With Micro WTI volumes up over 300% year on year, CME is positioning these products to capture continued volatility-driven flow, particularly relevant

The rate hike yesterday was necessary That as high energy prices are increasingly having an indirect impact on other prices The supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East is proving to be strong and persistent We cannot simply “look through” it We are keeping all our options open and are ready to

Reuters poll in near unanimous: RBA seen holding at 4.35% on June 16 Westpac sees RBA hold at the June 15-16 meeting, but more hikes ahead IRGC vows “regret-inducing” response, signals no surrender on deal Report – US forces down Iranian drones going for strikes on Hormuz shipping PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for

WTI crude is now down over 4% on the day, accelerating a drop after yesterday’s dive lower. The drop yesterday was somewhat arrested near the 100-day moving average (red line). But now, we’re seeing a firm break below that and could point to further declines in oil prices after the earlier headlines. Of note, we’re

Monthly GDP -0.1% vs -0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.3% Services output % vs -0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.3% Industrial output % vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.2% Manufacturing output % vs -0.2% m/m expected Prior +1.2% Construction output % vs -0.4% m/m expected Prior +1.5% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low

I posted earlier that US President Donald Trump cancelled planned military strikes on Iran that had been scheduled for Thursday night, saying negotiations had reached the highest levels of Iranian leadership and a final agreement could be signed soon. The White House indicated a framework deal has largely been accepted, with Trump suggesting a formal

CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y prelim Prior +2.9% HICP +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prelim Prior +2.9% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More detail here. Injects 393mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Online funding platforms now process billions while filtering retail accounts through automated liquidation triggers, a structure that rewards consistency over size and speed. This article maps the mechanics behind the numbers. Inside retail trading rooms, talk about funded accounts has moved from curiosity to core strategy. You’re seeing TikTok clips promising instant capital, Discord servers

The dip below the 50 threshold adds to a run of soft New Zealand data, though the modest scale of the contraction and BNZ’s expectation of a pickup later in the year limit the immediate read-through for RBNZ policy. The split between struggling micro-firms and resilient large firms also points to an uneven recovery rather

Markets are turning positive again as we see oil prices plunge alongside bond yields and stocks move up. That after Iran’s Mehr News Agency reveals some key details of the memorandum of understanding draft on their end. The question now though, is this the same draft proposal put forward by the US? If so, then

So, do we have a deal or no deal? Or maybe a little bit of both? That is the question that needs answering as markets look to the weekend. For now, markets are reacting kindly in taking to Trump’s latest boy who cried wolf act. Here’s a quick catchup to the happenings from yesterday: Trump

Full report here ECB’s Kocher said yesterday’s rate hike is intended to help stabilize inflation as the Middle East conflict continues to push up energy and commodity prices. Kocher warned that rising energy costs are weakening consumer purchasing power, discouraging investment, and increasing the risk of second-round inflation effects. However, he noted that inflation is

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold jumped yesterday following Trump’s suspension of planned attacks on Iran and the announcement of an agreement in principle for the MoU to be signed in the next few days. Fed rate hike expectations got pared back immediately with the US dollar and Treasury yields falling quickly. Looking at all the reports, the

A near-unanimous expectation of a hold leaves limited scope for a market surprise on Tuesday, with attention shifting to the RBA’s forward guidance and how it characterises Middle East-driven inflation risks. The split over the September outlook, with a notable minority still pricing further hikes, suggests AUD and rates markets remain sensitive to incoming inflation

The focus for the timezone will be developments in the truce announced between Iran and the US: Markets surge as Trump announces deal with Iran Eyes and ears open for detours and roadblocks, but the news is so far encouraging. The data won’t attract much attention: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US forces intercepted and shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran attempted to target commercial vessels transiting the waterway, according to a Fox News reporter. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Shin’s comments add to signs the BOK is moving toward tightening as early as next month, with inflation running at a more than two-year high and the won under pressure. A hawkish BOK alongside elevated oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict could support KRW in the near term, though higher rates also raise

Iran’s pushback introduces fresh uncertainty into a de-escalation narrative that drove sharp moves across oil, bonds, and equities on Thursday. With a tanker reportedly blocked from the strait and Tehran setting out conditions still some distance from Washington’s framing, markets may temper some of the optimism priced in over the past 24 hours. – Iran’s

Technology shares led the Nikkei’s gain. South Korea’s Kospi is +8% too. = ps, while you’re here, the deal on the table is an MOU. 60+ day ceasefire reopening Hormuz within 30 days phased sanctions relief nuclear negotiations ongoing halt to hostilities If its agreed to negotiations will be continuing for a long time to

A potential US-Iran agreement removed a major geopolitical risk premium from markets, sending crude lower, bonds higher, and equities sharply higher. While questions remain about whether Tehran formally signs off on the proposal, investors clearly preferred pricing in diplomacy over missiles. — Trump cancels Thursday strikes on Iran, says deal near complete with weekend signing

The financial industry runs on reputation. Balance sheets tell one story; the market’s verdict tells another. For brokers, technology providers, and fintech firms competing on a global scale, external validation from the people who actually use, partner with, and compete against them carries a weight that no internal marketing campaign can replicate. That validation is

As we look to the ECB policy decision later today, BofA is chiming in with their view on where EUR/USD looks to be headed in the months ahead. Given the circumstances with the Middle East conflict, the firm notes that there is still more potential for EUR/USD to navigate to the downside as markets underestimate

B2BROKER Group has announced a major upgrade to the B2COPY client interface, bringing PAMM, MAM, and Copy Trading services into a single environment. Additionally, the new interface now includes an all-accounts dashboard and expanded CRM integration capabilities, making trading more efficient and accessible. Instead of moving between separate modules for PAMM, MAM, and Copy Trading,

Prior was 5.046% Six auction average of 4.835% Bid to cover vs 2.30x prior The auction prior to this one tailed by 0.5 bps. This is a reopening so it’s 29 years, 11-months, not 30 years. The 1.2 bps tail is a bad sign in a world where congress is debating even more spending and

Trump writes: Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. Discussions and final points have been, in both concept

We are seeing huge moves in markets after Trump announced a peace deal with Iran. The news was confirmed by Israel’s N12, which suggests it’s a broader deal that also includes Lebanon. We are seeing large, immediate moves in markets with the S&P 500 up 1.3%, or just shy of 100 points. The Nasdaq is

Discover why simple strategies beat complex ones The post Why Simple Strategies Beat Complex Ones appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Some indicators of underlying inflation have been driven higher by energy shock Firms are getting ready to pass on higher input prices Households in solid financial position Consumption is a driver of growth The conflict is weighing on activity Domestic demand weaker than projected in March Most measures of inflation expectations stand at around 2%

From earlier today: Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz to all vessels, says ships will be targeted And now they’re repeating that the waterway will remain closed “until further notice”. Before today, there have been some vessels still crossing the strait. From official ship tracking data, these numbers were still less than 10 vessels per day.

Headlines: Iran maintains that Strait of Hormuz is closed until further notice US-Iran talks are still on track according to a CNN diplomatic source US futures nudge up on the session, focus turns to SpaceX IPO ECB preview: forget the rate hike and focus on forward guidance ECB rate hike today will be a mere

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been consolidating against most major currencies since Monday. The US CPI report yesterday came mostly in line with expectations and helped alleviate some of the most hawkish fears. The market pricing hasn’t changed though as traders continue to price in 24 bps of tightening by year-end, down very

Stock Market Overview Today’s stock market session presented a mixed bag for investors, with notable divergence in the technology sector. Tech stocks experienced noticeable shifts, particularly among chipmakers and software giants. 📈 Semiconductor Sector: Bright Spots Amidst Volatility The semiconductor sector shone brightly, with significant gains boosting investor confidence in chipmakers. Noteworthy performers include Advanced

The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points as expected, and ECB President Lagarde delivered a hawkish message after the rate hike, arguing that acting now was necessary to preserve price stability amid rising inflation risks and heightened uncertainty. She emphasized unanimous support for the decision and said the greater risk was failing to act.

After an ugly showing yesterday, US equities are finding a bit of relief so far today – at least for now. S&P 500 futures are up 0.8% with Nasdaq futures up by 1.3% on the day. That is at least leading to a calmer mood so far in European morning trade, though I would argue

The USDCAD is trading at new session highs near 1.3990, extending to fresh highs for 2026 and reaching its strongest level since early December 2025. On Tuesday, the pair pushed to 1.39686, briefly breaking above the previous 2026 high from late March at 1.39663. However, buyers were unable to sustain the breakout, triggering a pullback

The SpaceX IPO is on Friday with the company raising $75 billion in the IPO which would value the company at US$1.75 trillion. It’s both the largest capital raise and the largest company to ever IPO, even though just 4.2% of the company will be floated. The company will be fast-tracked into indexes and that

Prior +10.3% revised to +10.5% In April, the total value of building permits issued in Canada decreased $1.0 billion (-7.6%) to $12.5 billion. Both the non-residential sector (-10.5%) and the residential sector (-5.5%) contributed to the decline in construction intentions. On a constant dollar basis (2023=100), the total value of building permits issued in April

Prior forecast was in January GDP growth could slow to 1.3% if energy supply disruptions continue Emerging market growth seen at 3.6% vs 4.4% last year. Down from 4.0% in January China GDP seen at 4.2% vs 4.4% in Jan Eurozone growth seen at 0.8% vs 0.9% in Jan US GDP seen at 2.2% vs

US Secretary of War Hegseth: US will be hitting Iran hard tonight US to bomb key facilities in Iran Tonight’s strikes will be strong and clear Earlier: Trump: We will be attacking Iran “very hard” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The ECB sees headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028 For inflation ex energy Says Raises interest rate on deposit facility to 2.25% vs 2.00% Raises benchmark refi rate to 2.40% vs 2.15% Raises interest rate on marginal lending facility to 2.65% vs 2.40% Says that “in line with

Prior week Initial claims 225K (Largest since the first week of February) Prior week for continuing claims 1.777 million revised to 1.771M initial jobless claims 229K vs 219K estimate The 4-week moving average was 219,000, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 214,750 Continuing claims 1.795M versus 1.780 million estimate. Prior

A price war between OpenAI and Anthropic would pressure margins at both companies just as they head toward public listings, testing whether their business models can sustain profitability under heavier discounting. Given the interchangeability of their products and how easily enterprise customers can switch providers, any first mover price cut could force a rapid response,

Prior was +6.0% (revised to +5.7%) PPI +1.1% m/m vs +0.7% expected Prior m/m reading was +1.4% Ex food and energy +4.9% y/y vs +5.4% expected Ex food and energy +0.4% m/m vs +0.5% expected Prior m/m ex food and energy +1.0% (revised to +0.7%) Ex food, energy and trade +5.1% vs +4.4% prior Ex

Trump writes on Truth Social: The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT. At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil

Dow Jones futures test a key bear-flag decision zone before the SpaceX IPO Earlier today, I wrote in my Nasdaq analysis of today, that Nasdaq futures were correcting intraday, but still carried only a slight bullish skew, roughly between 0 and +1 on my -10 to +10 market scale, where -10 is the most bearish

e The US dollar is little changed versus the major currency pairs. In the video above I talk about the technicals given the recent price action, but there isn’t a lot of net movement versus yesterday’s close despite modest up and down. The ECB rate decision to raise rates by 25 basis points as expected

Gold is off its early lows today in a bounce to $4,080 levels now, with the low earlier touching $4,024. It’s a slippery slope for gold now after the technical breakdown since Friday. The precious metal is seeing price not only fall below the 200-day moving average (blue line) for the first time since October

A simultaneous attack across Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain marks a significant widening of the conflict beyond direct US Iran exchanges, drawing multiple Gulf states into active defence postures and raising the risk of further escalation involving their own forces and energy infrastructure. Kuwait and Bahrain are both significant within regional oil and gas logistics, and

Nasdaq futures is bouncing, but not fully repaired yet Key takeaways for Nasdaq traders today Nasdaq futures are trying to recover after last Friday’s sharp sell-off. The short-term bounce is real, but the larger market structure is still damaged. The main level to watch now is 28,850-28,900. A move above that zone would make the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been consolidating against most major currencies since Monday. The US CPI report yesterday came mostly in line with expectations and helped alleviate some of the most hawkish fears. The market pricing hasn’t changed though as traders continue to price in 24 bps of tightening by year-end, down very

Bitcoin has been trending lower since peaking on May 10 near its 200-day moving average (green line on the chart above). The inability to move above and stay above that key technical level gave sellers the upper hand and provided the first clue that the rally was running out of steam. Selling pressure intensified when

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been consolidating against most major currencies since Monday. The US CPI report yesterday came mostly in line with expectations and helped alleviate some of the most hawkish fears. The market pricing hasn’t changed though as traders continue to price in 24 bps of tightening by year-end, down very

The ECB is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%, and maintain the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. The central bank will also release new economic projections where inflation is expected to be upgraded for 2026 but remain unchanged for 2027 and 2028. The rate hike will be

The ECB is in a rather unenviable spot ahead of their policy decision later today. It is clear that the central bank will deliver a rate hike, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. But in the context of the bigger picture and the fight against inflation, how far do they need to go in

There are just a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1530 level. It is not one that ties to any technical significance, so the expiries may not factor too much into play. For now, price action is seeing a bit

Reports of explosions near major energy and petrochemical infrastructure on the Strait of Hormuz are likely to trigger an immediate jump in oil prices, with Brent and WTI both vulnerable to sharp gains on supply disruption fears. The proximity of strikes to Asaluyeh, a critical hub for Iran’s gas and petrochemical exports, and to Hormuz

The diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran remain alive despite rounds of military exchanges in the Gulf, with CNN reporting that US-Iran talks are still on track. US President Trump continues to combine military pressure with diplomacy in an attempt to force a broader agreement after months of stalled negotiations and intermittent conflict. The latest

Georgia’s latest purchase is a small but illustrative example of a much larger global trend, with central banks buying over 970 tons of gold in the first quarter alone, close to 80% of all 2025 purchases. This demand has shown low price sensitivity, reinforcing a structural floor under gold prices regardless of near term moves.

ICYMI – Georgia central bank buys $100mn more gold as global reserve demand surges Iran fires fresh missiles at Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain in widening attacks WSJ: OpenAI weighs major price cuts to compete with Anthropic before IPO push Gaslighting the oil market – global oil inventories six weeks from operational minimums PBOC sets USD/

Headlines of this nature carry significant potential to drive a sharp risk off move, with oil likely to spike higher on fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional escalation. Safe haven flows into the dollar, yen and gold would typically follow, while equities and other risk assets could come under

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Conflicting claims between Washington and Tehran are likely to keep volatility elevated, with markets struggling to verify the actual state of play in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military’s denial of any warship strikes, alongside confirmation that commercial shipping continues to transit the strait, may offer some reassurance against the most extreme Hormuz closure

Gold has cracked the March low. The spike low early in the war was $4097 and we’ve just broken through it. That puts gold back where it was in late November and — needles to say — lower for the year. The war and the risk mood aren’t helping. US equities are also at the

A second consecutive day of US strikes, now extending to more naval assets used to threaten shipping lanes, points to a sustained campaign rather than a one off action, likely keeping oil prices elevated and volatile. Targeting of gunboats and mine laying vessels directly addresses Strait of Hormuz transit risk, which markets will read as

The price of crude oil moved higher in trading today with a gain of $1.83 or 2.07% at $90.03. The high price extended to $91.84 help by geopolitical news out of the Middle East that the US would continue their bombings of Iran. The oil inventory data was also supportive with a crude oil inventory

The dip buyers are getting beaten up today. The market briefly rose into positive territory shortly after the open but it’s been downhill since Trump started talking about striking Iran “very hard.” Now Israel’s Minister of Defense Katz is saying the war with Iran is “far from over” and the IDF is prepared to strike

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

The market is trading a tad better after CPI but the details make for a complex picture. The headlines were basically in-line with estimates and core at +0.2% vs +0.3% was a touch soft. Notably though, the unrounded reading was +0.249% so it was right on the cusp. The relief bounce isn’t a surprise given

Trump on Truth Social:”Iran’s Military is a complete and total mess. Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn’t even exist anymore – They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action. The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!! They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would

The US treasury will auction off $39 billion of 10 year notes at the top of the hour. The current 10 year yield is at 4.534%. At the last auction the yield was set at 4.468%. Since the war started on February 28, the low yield was at 3.926% on March 2, the high was

The USDCAD moved lower ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision, trading at 1.3907 just before the announcement. Following the release, the pair briefly dipped to a session low of 1.3900 before rebounding. From a technical perspective, the pair is now back below the 100-hour moving average at 1.3930. Earlier in the session, price

High yield 4.538%. WI level at the time of the auction 4.539%. Tail -0.1 basis points versus six auction average of 0.6 basis points Bid to cover 2.57X versus 2.44X Directs 12.3% versus average of 21.1% Indirects 78.21% versus average of 67.6% Dealers 9.5% vs average 11.4% Auction Grade B+ The only negative was that

The full statement from the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The conflict in the Middle East is now in its fourth month. The resulting increases in energy prices and disruptions in

Treasury Sec Bessent: US has disrupted procurement networks that support Iran. Frozen the Iranians regimes assets severely disrupted is economy. Dismantled its war machine Bessent adds that the US treasury will not tolerate any support of the Iranian military. arlier Pres. Trump said that the US will be attacking Iran hard and that they have

Looking at the closing levels for the European indices, the UK FTSE 100 is the only bright light with a gain of 0.27%. The worst performer is the German Dax. A look at the closing levels shows: German DAX, -0.83% France CAC -0.51% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.27% Spain’s Ibex, -0.18% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.46%. As

Prior was 2.25% Rates have been held steady since a cut in October The war is weighing on global economic growth and pushing up inflation the US administration continues to propose new tariffs US economic growth remains solid supported by consumption and AI‑related investment In the euro area, growth is subdued Global equity markets have

The sharp acceleration in PPI is the notable number here, and it carries direct implications for global goods inflation. Chinese factory-gate prices feeding into export supply chains will lift input costs for manufacturers worldwide, adding to the inflationary pressure already flowing from the Middle East conflict and the AI-driven surge in electronic component prices. The

The currency pair continues to keep above the 160.00 mark so far in trading this week but is not really running away for now. Traders are reserving some caution in not wanting to incur the wrath of Japan’s ministry of finance. As price action keeps above the key psychological level, we have effectively erased the

As Adam pointed out, the inflation story was “overwhelmingly a gasoline story,” with energy accounting for more than 60% of the monthly increase in CPI. That characterization may help explain why the market’s initial reaction has been relatively muted. However, the bigger issue for policymakers is what comes next. We’re now well into June, the

It’s finally time for the CPI and the market is nervous. Gold and silver cracked today, breaking the war lows on fear that Trump doesn’t have the ‘imminent’ peace deal that he’s promised 37 times (according to CNN’s count). Now it looks like the pendulum is swinging towards further escalation with Trump writing: “Iran’s Military

Headlines: Trump on Iran: They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal, now they will have to pay price Iran’s Baghaei: Tehran needs to re-assess talks with the US following overnight clashes US futures hold lower with inflation data in focus The S&P 500 is at risk of another selloff as traders hold their breath

Given the circumstances, BOJ deputy governor Himino will be the one to chair the monetary policy meeting next week. Policymakers will be convening for the two-day meeting with the decision set to be announced on 16 June. As for the press conference duty, that will be delegated to BOJ deputy governor Uchida instead. I don’t

Iranian drone strikes on the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain represent a fundamental escalation, taking the conflict out of Iranian territory and into the heart of the Gulf’s US military infrastructure. Bahrain’s air defenses are reported to have repelled the attack, but the mere fact that Iran has struck a US base in a third

Three ‘waves’ of attacks reported: More on this news: US strikes southern Iran after Apache helicopter downed over Hormuz Second wave of US attacks on Iran said to be underway US launches third wave of Iran strikes as ballistic missiles fired from Isfahan Latest response, unconfirmed: Cruise missiles launched from Bandar Abbas toward the Persian

The formal conclusion of US strikes removes some immediate uncertainty but does not reduce the risk premium,- Iranian ballistic missiles were already airborne before CENTCOM issued the all-clear, and Tehran has made clear retaliation is coming. The deliberate targeting of air defense, radar and ground control infrastructure around Hormuz is strategically significant, as it degrades

The USD is little changed vs the EUR, JPY and GBP to start the North American session. IN the video above, I take a look at the technicals that are defining the bias, the risk and the targets for those pairs ahead of the CPI data at 8:30 AM ET In other developments, geopolitics remain

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are both for USD/JPY at the 160.00 and 160.50 levels. Much like before, the expiries here may not be of that much influence in dictating price action for the currency pair. As things stand, intervention

Given the escalating tensions in the Middle East—including reports of an Iranian drone attack on an Apache helicopter and a subsequent U.S. retaliatory strike—one might have expected crude oil prices to surge. Instead, WTI crude is only modestly higher, up about $1.23 at $89.45, suggesting traders remain hesitant to aggressively price in a major supply

Trump says he’s close to ordering new strikes against Iranian power plants and bridges Tehran taking too long to make a deal Trump said on Fox News that he is close to authorizing new strikes against Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, while accusing Tehran of dragging out negotiations and refusing to accept a

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The correction in the S&P 500 has finally started as the hot NFP number last Friday acted as a wake-up call for the hawkish Fed risks. I mentioned back in May that we were approaching an inflection point due to the prolonged US-Iran stalemate and the shift in Fed’s stance. The rally in

The dual signal from Washington, striking Iranian territory while simultaneously insisting the deal survives, introduces a new layer of uncertainty that markets will struggle to price cleanly. Targeting air defense and radar infrastructure near Hormuz raises the operational stakes considerably, and Iran’s vow to retaliate keeps escalation risk elevated. The possibility that drone program sites

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The oil market has been dead for months. The price action has been mostly rangebound with bouts of volatility caused by US-Iran headlines. There is no direction whatsoever, just noise in a wide range. Last Friday, we got some interesting reaction to the US NFP report. Oil prices fell alongside many other markets

War news dominated, read from the bottom up for chronology: Iran strikes US bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain as retaliation widens across region Iran attacks US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain after American strikes target Hormuz defense CENTCOM declares Iran strikes complete after three waves targeting Hormuz defenses Oil has risen as the US has

Headline CPI: Prior was +3.8% m/m reading +0.5% vs +0.5% expected Month-over-month unrounded +0.631% Unrounded headline +4.249% vs +3.811% prior Core measures: Core CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Last month +0.4% Core CPI y/y +2.9% vs +2.9% expected. Last month was +2.8% Unrounded core +2.851% vs +2.750% prior Real weekly earnings vs -0.2% prior

Nasdaq analysis today: Prediction map for traders as the rebound stalls below $29,110 Last updated: 10:00, Wednesday, 10 June 2026 (CEST), Time in Berlin The Nasdaq is trying to repair after a sharp washout, but today’s Nasdaq analysis still leans neutral to mildly bearish while price remains below $29,110. For traders asking how to trade

It’s a heated morning already as we look to US trading later with Trump going on blast about Iran today. The message is that he’s had just about enough as negotiations continue to drag on and now Iran must “pay the price”. As such, he is threatening fresh strikes against Iran’s infrastructure while indirectly reaffirming

A forex brokerage knows who deposited. It knows when someone last logged in. What it often cannot see quickly is whether that account has been trading daily for six weeks or has gone silent after a single deposit. That information exists inside MT5, MT4, or cTrader. But if it is not feeding into the CRM,

Tehran needs to re-assess talks with the US following overnight clashes With its continued ceasefire violations, the US harms the diplomatic process Iran is signalling a tougher stance toward diplomacy with the US after the latest round of US-Iran military exchanges, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei saying Tehran must “re-assess” its negotiations with the United

With continued ceasefire violations, the US is harming the diplomatic process The news from yesterday was that an Iranian drone shot down a US helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. After which, the US moved to retaliate and hit 20 Iranian targets overnight in a three-stage strike. At the same time, Iran also launched an

US May existing home sales 4.17m vs 4.07m expected US International trade balance for April -$55.9B vs -$56.1B estimate SpaceX IPO said to be almost four-times oversubscribed Anthropic releases Claude Fabel 5, it’s “Mythos-class” model. Trump: Iran responsible for shooting down Apache Helicopter. Must respond militarily. Reports of explosions in Tehran Canada April trade balance

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold extended the losses yesterday as traders likely hedged into a potentially hot US CPI report today. Friday’s strong NFP number triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations and traders are now questioning not if, but when and how many rate hikes the Fed will deliver this year. The limited US-Iran escalations

With nonfarm payrolls up 172,000 in May, more than double the 85,000 expected, the Fed has more reason to stay focused on inflation, and things aren’t looking great. After CPI rose 3.8% year over year in April, the highest in three years, RBC Economics expects headline inflation to increase by 0.5% month over month in

Traders and investors were sent reeling after the hot US jobs report at the end of last week. Since then, there is an air of nervousness surrounding equities – not least with the US-Iran conflict continuing to rage on. The trepidation is likely tied to the fact that market players will have to deal with

The People’s Bank of China allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 159bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It’s a rough day in the precious metals market and one of the most-concerning ones of the year. Gold and silver have often traded inversely to oil during the conflict. There is/was a big risk that countries would have to sell gold reserves in order to pay for oil imports or to support currencies if

Japan’s m/m ‘wholesale inflation’ measure, PPI, is expected to pull back. For China, m/m CPI is expected to be subdued, despite rising costs for manufacturers,- both for the inputs they buy and the goods they produce, as a result of the Middle East conflict. Further upward pressure is likely from the surge in electronic component

Via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -3.4 mn barrels Distillates -0.2 mn bbls Gasoline -0.6 mn This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is a categorically different order of escalation. Long-range missile strikes on Al-Azraq in Jordan, home to F-35 infrastructure and command-and-control facilities, signal that Iran is prepared to hit high-value US air power assets deep outside the Gulf theatre. The simultaneous opening of three fronts, Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait, suggests a coordinated retaliatory doctrine rather

US Central Command said it carried out self-defence strikes against targets inside Iran from 5pm ET, ordered by President Trump in direct response to the shooting down of a US Army AH-64 Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz the previous day. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bandar Abbas is the nerve centre of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz operations, and confirmed strikes there mark a qualitative escalation beyond radar and air defense sites. The reported launch of ballistic missiles from Isfahan introduces a new dimension of retaliatory risk that will weigh heavily on energy markets. Gulf state allies hosting US assets are

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

In a volatile trading session, which had the NASDAQ index trade with a 1279 point range, the S&P index with a 244 point range, and the Dow industrial average with a 1050 point range, the major indices closed mixed Dow industrial average rose by 86.03 points or 0.17% to 50,877.10. At session lows the index

A direct, named threat from Iran’s Foreign Minister raises the geopolitical risk premium a notch above anonymous state media statements. Language referencing battlefield defeats and historical consequences for outside powers suggests Tehran is not inclined to absorb the strikes quietly. Any Iranian counter-strike on US assets or regional shipping infrastructure would put Hormuz back at

The strikes mark a sharp escalation in direct US-Iran military engagement and raise fresh doubts about any near-term peace deal, which markets had been tentatively pricing in. Hormuz closure risk is again front and centre, with the strait already blocking roughly a fifth of global crude and LNG flows. Any sign the conflict is widening

The NZDUSD and AUDUSD fell sharply last week, with the help of the stock liquidation on Friday. That led to risk off flows for the currencies and a flight into the dollar. Both the NZD and the AUD, however, are rallying today (USD moving lower) on the opposite risk-on flow, but at different speeds. For

The Bank of Canada will deliver its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday and almost surely hold rates steady at 2.25%, the same place where rates have been since a cut in October. The market also sees very little chance of a rate hike at the July 15 meeting so there is no needs for

Pres. Trump has posted on TruthSocial: Stocks have continued their slide with the NASDAQ now down around 900 points or -3.5%. The S&P is down -160 points or -2.15% and the Dow industrial average is down close to 500 points on the day. The shooting down of the helicopter was reported last night but it

High yield 4.192% WI level at the time of the auction 4.189% Bid to cover 2.64X versus average of 2.61X Tail 0.3 basis points Dealers 15.3% versus average of 13.9% Directs 21.01% versus average of 22.2% Indirects 63.71% versus average of 63.9% Auction Grade: C The mix of the buyers was near the averages as

Five minute trading halt for South Korea Kospi futures as shares rocket higher. Japan’s Nikkei jumped too. Rebounding after Monday losses. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump warned that a US response was coming due to the shot-down helicopter but the public pre-warning and him highlighting that the soldiers weren’t hurt is a sign that he doesn’t truly want to escalate. Journalist Mohamad Ahwaze on X said he’s hearing the sound of powerful explosions in Tehran. We will wait for more

The 25 basis-point move is fully priced, so market reaction will turn almost entirely on the tone of the accompanying statement and updated staff forecasts. Any signal of a more aggressive near-term path beyond the anticipated Q3 follow-up hike would likely push eurozone yields higher and support the euro. The Morgan Stanley view that fiscal

The remarks are carefully calibrated but carry a mild cautionary undertone toward further BOJ tightening. Kiuchi’s explicit acknowledgment that rising rates could affect the economy through various channels is a gentle signal of government sensitivity to any aggressive move, without crossing into direct interference with BOJ independence. The emphasis on continuing to work closely with

The modest confidence improvement offers slim comfort for RBA watchers given the index remains firmly negative across all industries and profitability is the weakest sub-component relative to its long-run average. The drop in capacity utilisation below 82%, the first such reading since early 2025, is consistent with an economy losing momentum and adds to the

The USD Is lower to kickstart the North American session today. The EURUSD (up 0.34%) and the GBPUSD (+0.49%) are leading the way. The USDJPY is down modestly at -0.02%. The markets are reacting to modestly lower yields, lower oil and higher stocks as the formula for a lower greenback. Less tension in the middle

There were rumors that Mythos would get a public release today and that’s proven to be true. Anthropic is calling it Fable 5 and says it’s a ‘Mythos level’ model. It’s been immediately rolled out and says it takes 2x the usage of Opus, so those rate limits will come fast. Fable 5 is clearly

Markets appear to be disconnecting from some of the traditional risk drivers today. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 have surrendered earlier gains and slipped into negative territory, even as Treasury yields remain little changed and crude oil prices continue to move lower. WTI crude oil is down roughly $3.50 to $87.70, its lowest level

The USD has reversed course from the declines earlier today. Stocks which were higher at the beginning of the day have now reversed sharply to the downside. The NASDAQ index which was up 330 points at session highs is now down -732 points or -2.83%. The S&P index was up 77.43 points at session highs.

Here are the pre-market levels: S&P 500 +40 or +0.5% Nasdaq +258 points Russell 2000 +26 points The market is optimistic about a wrap-up in the Hormuz mess after Trump said a deal could come in the next couple days. That was underscored by a report in the past hour that Saudi Arabia was passing

It’s getting ugly. The Nasdaq opened 1% higher but it’s been a nosedive since and it’s now down nearly 2% and at the lowest levels since in a month. There has been no clear trigger for the reversal but one of the reasons for the rally was dubious. Trump and administration officials once again said

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar rallied strongly across the board on Friday as the very hot NFP gain with higher revisions for the prior months served as a wake-up call that the Fed could be forced to raise interest rates. The job gains have been much higher than the estimated breakeven rate lately. The

The filing sets up what could be the largest technology IPO on record, with public market pricing expected to test whether frontier AI companies can sustain private-round valuations once audited financials are visible to all investors. The simultaneous path to market for both OpenAI and Anthropic creates an unprecedented side-by-side comparison of rival AI economics,

Prior 95.9 The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.6 points in May to 95.3, remaining below its 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index rose 3 points from April to 91, remaining well above its historical average of 68. As reported in NFIB’s monthly Jobs Report, the NFIB Small Business Employment Index remained essentially

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar rallied strongly across the board on Friday as the very hot NFP gain with higher revisions for the prior months served as a wake-up call that the Fed could be forced to raise interest rates. The job gains have been much higher than the estimated breakeven rate lately. The

A quick summary of events from the past day: Iran announces end to military operations against Israel However, Israel maintains that this does not mean the end of attacks against Hezbollah Iran continues to report “major obstacles” in agreeing to a deal Iran officials maintain that US is not showing “sufficient commitment” to work things

China’s May trade data is the focus, though its not likely to move major markets too much upon release. Export and import growth have tended to exceed expectations so far in 2026. Higher tech prices are boosting both export and import prices, helping the numbers rise. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior month -$60.3B revised to -$56.6B Good trade balance (R) -$-83.01B vs -$82.4B (Prelim). Prior -$85.30B Exports $327.1 Billion,+2.6%° Imports $327.1 Billion,+2.0%° Looking at the 3 month average of the goods and services trade deficit, is steady. Headline Numbers Exports: $327.1 billion Up $8.3 billion from March Imports: $383.0 billion Up $7.6 billion from March

Pentagon adds Alibaba, Baidu and BYD to China military-linked firms list China’s May trade balance, exports and imports all higher than expected Daiwa sees BOJ June hike as bid to avoid falling behind the curve Australia business confidence improves in May but stays deeply negative China car sales fall 22% in May as oil prices

For some context, Goldman Sachs had already pushed back their rate cut call from September to December last month here. But with their latest bump, they now expect the Fed not to cut rates at all this year with the first move set to follow only in June next year. “We are pushing the final

A bearish read from one of Wall Street’s most-watched strategy teams adds to the cautious tone already circulating around stretched tech valuations. The note flags that the gap between the index’s best and worst performers is now near levels last seen during the pandemic, with the IT sector spread hitting its widest since February 2000.

Prior was +1.78 billion Exports $75.16 billion vs $72.77 billion prior Imports $72.44 billion vs $70.99 billion prior This was the largest monthly surplus since January 2025 and is the second month of surpluses. Energy did the heavy lifting again, up 9.7% after March’s 23.4% jump — and both moves were price, not volume. Crude

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 153bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The designations stopped short of sanctions or export blacklist status, limiting immediate financial damage, but the indirect procurement restrictions create real supply chain pressure for US defence contractors that currently work with listed firms. Baidu ADRs fell 2.1%, with Alibaba and BYD each down 0.8% on the news. The timing is the most diplomatically sensitive

The cryptocurrencies space has been quite interesting in the past month, or should I say even for this year so far. While most other risky assets have risen and stayed more resilient, it has been anything but that for cryptocurrencies. Typically, you’d associate moves in crypto together with stocks. The direction tends to correlate especially

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1570 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could act as a bit of a ceiling for price action, in the event we do get any

“Two or three days.. we have a very good chance of doing it” US will issue a report on Hormuz incident later today Pilots involved the incident are fine We will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon Iran’s economy is struggling, they will have to come to an agreement As things stand, the

The results put AstraZeneca into direct competition with Eli Lilly in the race for a convenient oral GLP-1 therapy, a market widely seen as the next major growth frontier in pharmaceuticals. Elecoglipron’s 10.5% weight reduction at 26 weeks is broadly competitive with Lilly’s orforglipron, which produces reductions of 8.6% to 12.6% across dosage levels over

Industrial production +0.4% vs +0.5% m/m expected Prior -0.7%; revised to -0.1% The increase in industrial output for the month comes mostly from both the construction and energy-intensive industries. When taking into account manufacturing excluding energy and construction, German industrial production for April was unchanged compared to March. Just also note that there was a

Tehran has declared U.S. revisions to the draft deal unacceptable, warning negotiators that a ceasefire and agreement cannot be reached without guaranteed sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. Al Jazeera report on the repeated demand from an Iranian official. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Ether futures struggle below key resistance as traders watch whether $1658 becomes the next breakdown trigger Ether futures current area: around $1666-$1668Prediction score: -3 / +10Primary bias right now: Bearish while Ether futures remain below $1686-$1691Key idea: Ether futures are trading in a lower balance after a bearish impulse. Sellers still have the advantage below

The major U.S. stock indices finished mixed after giving back a significant portion of their early gains. In premarket trading, the NASDAQ was higher by more than 500 points, and although the cash-session high reached a gain of roughly 470 points, sellers gradually chipped away at the advance throughout the day. The index still managed

The rate decision is very much expected at this point, with several sources already “leaking” the matter to markets. And so far, market pricing is very much in tune with that as traders are pricing in ~84% odds of a rate hike. As a reminder, the BOJ will announce their latest decision next week on

The data reinforces the structural shift underway in the world’s largest auto market, with high oil prices accelerating the transition away from internal combustion vehicles faster than the headline sales decline might suggest. The record 62.9% NEV share and 54% of exports being new-energy vehicles signals that Chinese manufacturers are using the domestic downturn to

Info via a Washington Post reporter: You probably don’t need me to tell you Trump has been spouting ‘over soon’ baloney for months. Earlier: Iran says again no deal unless sanctions relief and release of frozen funds This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A mix day for the US stock indices. Dow closes lower. S&P and NASDAQ rise WSJ: Trump seeks peace, but Israel and Iran keep testing the limits Iran Official: Major Obstacles Remain in U.S.-Iran Talks Silver traders take the price below the 200 day MA for the 1st time since April and failed What you

The RBC call frames any intervention-driven yen bounce as a tactical entry point rather than a trend reversal, a framing that will resonate with momentum traders already watching the 160 level. Katayama’s reaffirmation that Tokyo stands ready to take decisive action adds a short-term two-way risk overlay, but RBC’s structural argument is that intervention cannot

Silver came under heavy pressure since breaking below its 100 day moving average back on May 15. On Friday, the price fell sharply on the back of the dollar rising. Today the momentum continued with the price falling to its lowest level since March with the price reaching $66.17. In the process, the metal briefly

The Wall Street Journal is outlining what happened over the last 24 or so hours and what continues to be clear is that Trump and Netanyahu seem to be diverging more and more. Netanyahu continues to say that he and Trump are on the same page, but Trump is not liking the implications of the

Senior Iranian official Ebrahim Azizi says a deal is not imminent, citing major unresolved issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment. Trust remains the biggest obstacle, with Tehran saying it has yet to see a “serious will” from Washington to finalize an agreement. Iran says it is open to negotiations in principle, provided the

In the Kickstart video at the start of the North American session, I highlighted how the EURUSD was bouncing from targeted support near the 1.1500 level. At the time, the pair had also moved back above its 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 5-minute chart, a positive technical development. However, for buyers to gain

IRGC says they responded to Israel’s attack on petrochemical plant by launching missile on similar plant in Haifa IRGC says Israel started a dangerous game by targeting oil industry and civilian sites Reports say Iran fired 30 missiles at Israel since Sunday Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson says overnight developments will only worsen the chaotic situation

The USDCAD extended its rally to a new high of 1.3953 today, the highest level since April 6. In doing so, the pair pushed above the April 6 high at 1.3948, signaling continued bullish momentum. However, the move stalled just short of the March 31 high at 1.3966, which remains the highest level of 2026

Advanced traders no longer operate from a single screen. They run bots, track dashboards, feed signal pipelines, query analytics systems, and increasingly explore AI-driven tools — all simultaneously, all demanding live data, structured account access, and execution logic that moves at the speed of the market. Conventional trading interfaces were not designed for that reality.

Israel’s Netanyahu is speaking after his the Security Council meeting and says: Military operations against Hezbollah are not yet over. The fire on the Iranian front is contained. If they fire again we will respond forcefully He calls Hezbollah and Iran weaker than ever, but acknowledges that the struggle is not over Says that Iran

The headlines are fast and furious with the US seemingly trying to stay at arms length between Israel and Iran/Lebanon. Netanyahu and Trump spoke and subsequently Israel has ceased its preparations for a new round of strikes on Iran.. Earlier today Pres. Trump said that Iran and Israel were looking to do an immediate cease-fire.

Israel’s Netanyahu will apparently decide on escalation and Iran at their Security Council meeting this evening. Pres. Trump has urged a cease-fire. Headlines continue to contradict each other. US stocks are higher but not as high as premarket levels. The NASDAQ index is up around 290 points or 1.12% (the index was up over 500

In addition to the latest rumors of strikes on a US base in Saudi Arabia, now we have a much more credible report from Israel’s military, which says it has identified the launch of a missile from Yemen towards Israel. There are also other reports of launches from Iran towards Israel. Update: There are reports

Often, the price action on a chart tells a story that is far more important to traders than the latest fundamental headline. That story is centered on one thing: risk management. Successful traders are constantly looking for levels they can lean against—areas where they can define their risk tightly while maintaining the potential for a

So much for Trump restraining Netanyahu. Maybe it was a ruse, maybe Bibi doesn’t care what Trump wants. There are reports of explosions in Tehran, Tabriz and Isfahan, according to Iranian reports. Earlier, I noted there were reports from the US military of objects over Jordan so this isn’t entirely surprising. It’s not clear if

Trump on Truth Social: Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly. Thank you

Prelim was +2.1% Q4 was +0.8% Q/Q GDP +0.5% vs +0.3% expected Private consumption +0.3% vs +0.3% prelim and 0.0% in Q4 Separately, current account data for April showed a surplus of 3907B yen vs 3136B expected. Overall, this is a good report and is supportive of the yen. All eyes are on intervention today

The major European indices are closing result. German Dax -0.57% France CAC -0.23% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.05% Spain’s Ibex -0.66% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.63% As London/European traders are heading for the exits, the US stock indices remain in positive territory: Dow industrial average of 96.03 points or 0.19% at 50970 S&P index up 60.11 points

Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap reveals a strong uptick in the semiconductor sector, with standout performances from industry giants. Micron Technology (MU) surged by a substantial 8.79%, while Intel (INTC) showed impressive strength, climbing 10.78%. This recovery suggests a renewed investor confidence possibly driven by promising earnings reports or advancements in technology. Consumer cyclicals also

The AUDUSD moved sharply lower on Friday, pressured by risk-off sentiment, a broadly stronger U.S. dollar, and a deterioration in the technical picture. The selling accelerated after the pair broke below a key swing area between 0.7100 and 0.7113, and then fell beneath its 100-day moving average, a level that had held since November 2025.

After sharp declines last week, the broader U.S. stock indices are trading higher today, but the technical picture remains mixed beneath the surface. The NASDAQ indexcontinues to hold a short-term bearish bias, even with today’s rebound, while the S&P 500 has improved from the more negative posture seen at Friday’s close and is now trading

Key Takeaways from the Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) – May 2026 Employment Trends Index (ETI) fell to 107.01 in May from an upwardly revised 107.88 in April, signaling some moderation in the labor market outlook. The ETI is a leading indicator for payroll employment, meaning it is designed to provide clues about future

Trump is doing a real media tour today. Just in the past three hours, he’s spoken to Fox News, Axios and now the FT where he says: Netanyahu will have ‘no choice’ but to accept a deal with Iran “I call the shots, I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots” Iran’s

Trump on Truth Social: Israel and Iran must immediately stop “shooting.” President DONALD J. TRUMP There have been also reports that the US is assisting in intercepting Iranian missiles but not in attacks. I don’t think Iran is going to care much about the difference. I feel like this escalation is going to resolve soon

Investor confidence -13.4 vs -14.6 expected Prior -16.4 Euro area investor morale picked up more than expected heading into June, as concerns about a deep economic slowdown eased compared to the previous month. That said, the overall reading remains relatively subdued following the steep drop since April. As things stand, the mood surrounding the euro

The rollercoaster ride continues as we see oil prices move back up to start the new week today. That comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East as Iran and Israel are involved in military exchanges since the weekend. Missile strikes are keeping up even until this morning and Iran is not shying away from

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson is out with a message saying that the US is the one who is directly responsible for the recent ceasefire breaches. He also adds that Israel’s actions in attacking Iran cannot be separated from US policies, and that the latest developments are fueling further distrust in any talks with the US.

Iran has signalled that it is prepared for a prolonged confrontation with Israel and warned that US interests in the region could also come under threat. Iranian officials have increasingly linked Washington to Israeli military operations. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said the United States bears direct responsibility for Israeli actions in the region, arguing that

A light week ahead, as is usually the case following the NFP release, and while Monday has no major economic events scheduled, markets will watch for any developments related to the conflict in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Australia will release the Westpac consumer sentiment index and the U.S. will publish the ADP employment change

Fars News reports that Iran’s armed forces announced end of military operations against Israel, but warned of harsher attacks if Israel resumes attacks on Lebanon. The signals of an imminent end were already up in the air with Trump’s posts on Truth Social and now we’ve got the confirmation. This is leading to a relief

The salvo continues to start the new week. The latest headlines crossing are noting that the Israeli military had detected missiles launched from Iran toward the country. As such, their defensive systems are operating to intercept them. It is also being reported that these missiles are part of a coordinated ballistic missile launch by Iran

Japanese stock markets are getting battered today but there are better signs trickling out of the US. The Nikkei is trading down 3.5% following a 4.2% rout in the Nasdaq Composite on Friday. I’d expect to see pain around the globe today as the rest of the world plays catch up. There are some better

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold sold off on Friday as the very hot NFP gain with higher revisions for the prior months served as a wake-up call that the Fed could be forced to tighten monetary policy. The job gains have been much higher than the estimated breakeven rate lately. The unemployment rate fell to an unrounded

After Friday’s rout, Nasdaq futures fight to regain control Buyers have stepped back into Nasdaq futures after Friday’s sharp decline, but the battle for higher-value acceptance is still underway. After the gap-down open, NQ did not continue lower. Instead, buyers stepped in, pushed price back toward Friday’s close area, and then accepted higher value above

There are unconfirmed reports of 2 explosions in Saudi Arabia potentially via an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. That’s an unusually quick response so I’m skeptical. Saudi Arabia’s civil defense earlier issued an early warning but said the threat had passed in the area of Al Kharj. Impressively,

Friday was a major gut-check in markets but I don’t think it was a disaster. I’m reminded of the old adage: Bull markets go up the escalator and correct on the elevator. That means that sharp, periodic corrections are a normal part of healthy bull markets. A steady bleed lower over many days would be

Israel’s N12 reports on today’s call between Trump and Netanyahu. Trump asked Israel not to respond to the missile attack and to wait a few days to allow negotiations to continue. Netanyahu “more or less agreed” the report says. The report said Netanyahu tried during the phone call to object to Trump’s request not to

Goldman Sachs is changing its Fed call. Previously, they saw the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December and then again in March 2027. Now they see the Fed holding rates steady until cuts in June 2027 and December 2027. They cited Friday’s jobs report and still-low unemployment. The market, meanwhile, is pricing in a hike

Bitcoin futures tradeCompass update: BTC repair is real, but $64,580 is still the gatekeeper Prediction score: +2.5 / +10Bias: Mildly bullish while above $62,920, but not a clean bullish takeover unless BTC accepts above $64,580.Last updated: 02:41 Monday, 8 June 2026 (CEST) Bitcoin futures are in a mild bullish repair phase after reclaiming the $61,000

The exchange of blows certainly don’t seem to indicate that this is just a limited salvo. If anything, it reads as something that could escalate further. I guess that explains the more direct response by Iran earlier here. Iran state media is now reporting that Israeli strikes from earlier has damaged its Karoon Petrochemical plant

Iran and Yemen launch missiles towards Israel Explosions heard in Tehran and elsewhere in Iran Goldman Sachs drops call for December Fed rate cut Reports/rumors of explosions at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia Head of US equity and quant strategy at BoA sees too many red flags in stock markets Japan Q1 GDP

Savita Subramanian, Bank of America Securities head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, is warning about parallels between markets now and in Feb 2020. Energy is outperforming and has positive momentum and upward earnings revisions Tech and communications are hot but with expensive valuations Consumer staples rank dead last in returns The last one is

It was a busy weekend in the Middle East but the good news is that Trump still appears to be trying to forge a deal. He said he was unhappy that Israel had struck the southern suburbs of Beirut and Iran firing missiles at Israel. About 90 minutes ago Iran fired missiles at Israel in

Mon: Japanese GDP (Q1), German Factory Orders (Apr), US Consumer Inflation Expectations, Apple WWDC 2026 Tue: EIA STEO (Jun), South Korean GDP (Q1), UK BRC Retail Sales (May), Australian Westpac (Jun), Chinese Balance of Trade (May), German Balance of Trade (Apr), German Imports (Apr), Mexican Inflation (May), US ADP Weekly Change, Exports/Imports, Canadian Exports/Imports (Apr),

OPEC+ and OPEC continue to go through the motions with the quota meetings despite the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ announced it will raise its quota by 188K bpd for July with another meeting to come on July 5 for August production. The thing is, there are 10-13 million barrels per day shut in right now

US stocks close sharply lower. The NASDAQ index has it worse trading day since April 2025 Meta is considering raising tens of billion dollars in a stock offering Trump: Would like to see lower interest rates Baker Hughes oil rig count up 2 to 431 Gold is sinking with the US dollar rising and yields

OKLO stock lesson: a simple post-earnings VWAP check before buying the dip Key takeaways for stock investors and swing traders OKLO was already trading below its post-earnings anchored VWAP before Friday’s sharp drop. Thursday’s rally into that VWAP area was rejected, which was a warning sign. Earnings should be judged by the stock’s price reaction,

The NASDAQ led the selloff on Friday, tumbling 4.18%, with losses reaching nearly 4.5% at the session lows. The S&P 500 declined 2.65%, after being down as much as 3.0%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.35%. The catalyst was a sharp rise in Treasury yields following a stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report. Nonfarm payrolls

Coming off the back of Google’s record $85 billion equity share sale this week, Meta is now considering raising tens of billions of dollars in the equity markets as it looks to expand its move into AI The stock has moved from $610 to a new low of the day of $581.58. The price currently

The NASDAQ is now down more than 1,000 points, or -3.84%, at 25,801, with the session low reaching 25,753.93. Selling pressure accelerated following reports that Microsoft may look to tap the equity markets to help fund its expanding AI infrastructure investments, a development that has weighed on both the stock and the broader technology sector.

Will leave interest rate decision to Warsh Would like to see lower interest rates Says the country is doing well, market should go up He would not mind if Warsh were to cut interest rates. Will leave rate cut to Warsh during October meeting. What is curious is his response that will leave rate cut

The Baker Hughes rig count for the current week shows oil im inventories up 2 to 431 . Natural Gas inventories are down -1 to 124 and Total rigs are up 1 to 563. The decline in rigs has been hard since the peak above 1000 rigs back in early 2019. What is the stories

The French trade balance improved by €0.8 billion to -€5.6 billion in April, reflecting a narrowing in the overall deficit. This of course follows from the sharp declines recorded in February (-€3.5 billion) and March (-€1.3 billion). The better showing was driven by a strong increase in exports (+€1.7 billion), which outpaced the growth in

Gold is under heavy selling pressure, falling $143, or 3.2%, to $4,333. The sharp decline has pushed the price below its 200-hour moving average for the first time since October 2023, a development that shifts the near-term technical bias more firmly in favor of the sellers. The move lower also broke below the 50% retracement

The EURUSD continues to slide lower after breaking below a key support zone between 1.15768 and 1.15872. That floor had held firm since May 20, with the pair finding support within the area on four separate trading days between May 20 and May 28. The decisive break below that zone shifted the technical bias more

Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 level for the first time since early February, extending to a low of $59,743 and reaching its weakest level since October 2024. The break lower increased bearish momentum, but buyers stepped in near the lows, helping to push the price back above the $60,000 threshold. Bitcoin is currently trading around

CNN is reporting: Iran says negotiations with the U.S. have stalled, with senior adviser Mohsen Rezaei claiming President Trump must act to break the impasse. Iran is demanding the release of $24 billion in frozen assets as part of any agreement: $12 billion upon signing an interim deal. Another $12 billion at a later stage.