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There are quite a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are all for EUR/USD layered between 1.1400 and 1.1450 as noted above. The larger chunk of expiries are seen at 1.1400-05, which holds similar to previous expiries seen earlier this week. The ones here are […]

Simo’s exit lands at a sensitive moment for OpenAI’s pre-IPO positioning, stripping out the executive investors had increasingly viewed as heir apparent to run the business once the company lists. The gap widens an already crowded succession picture, with product, revenue and strategy duties now split across Greg Brockman, Sarah Friar, Denise Dresser and Jason

As things stand, markets are well expecting the ECB to stay put in July. Policymakers themselves have confirmed that in saying that only a “negative surprise” to the June inflation numbers would really affect their line of thinking. And as we see with the data, inflation dynamics were slightly better in June and that will

The upside surprise in producer prices strengthens the case for the BOJ to press ahead with further tightening, with markets increasingly pricing a hike as soon as October rather than waiting until year-end. Persistent cost pass-through from firms to customers suggests inflation expectations are becoming entrenched, a dynamic the BOJ has been watching closely as

The major US stock indices pushed to the upside in trading today led by the NASDAQ index. Looking at the closing levels for the major indices: Dow industrial average rose 0.27% or 139 points to 52492.26 S&P index rose 0.81% or 60.93 points to 7543.63 NASDAQ index rose 1.30% or 336.24 points to 26206.89 Russell 2000 rose 1.22%

A U.S. official says talks with Iran will proceed despite recent tanker attacks in the Strait, which Washington views as terrorism. The MOU remains performance-based, and Iran’s conduct falls well short of acceptable standards. Even so, the administration remains committed to pursuing a resolution: so technical talks continue to prevent Iran from having a nuclear

Iranian news agencies report that there are strikes in Iran for a third day. Iran yesterday retaliated against US bases in the region and is threatening to take that further. The risk is that they start attacking energy or civilian infrastructure in the countries hosting US bases.  On this headline, oil prices have rebounded but

Headlines: US president Trump reaffirms that Iran called a while ago and that they want to make a deal Oil prices continue to surge amid heightened US-Iran tensions and renewed supply fears Dollar holds lower after Trump says that Iran wants to make a deal again ECB’s Escriva: the ECB cannot adjust monetary policy in

Crude oil futures have reversed sharply lower, trading back below the $72.00 level at $71.91, down $1.62 (-2.08%) on the day. Despite another round of heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—including U.S. strikes on Iran and Iranian warnings that oil and gas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and Bahrain could

There is an ISNA report out that cites Pakistani souces and says that Pakistan remains optimistic about preserving the MOU, despite Trump yesterday saying it was “dead”. “Islamabad and Doha are consulting on the return of Iran and the US to negotiations,” the report says. There was also a short time ago an important communique

The USD is little changed vs the major currencies to kickstart the North American trading day as the FX market remains paralyzed by the fluid situation in the Middle East . IN the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective

The U.S. Treasury auctioned off $22 billion of 30 year bonds to complete the coupon auctions for the week. Below are the details from the auction results. High yield 5.058% WI level at the time of the auction 5.061% Tail -0.3 basis points vs average of -0.2 basis points Bid to cover 2.44X versus average of 2.43X

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 and 1.1460 levels. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance, so their impact should be relatively muted for the most part. The ones at the 1.1400 level though

easyMarkets is celebrating 25 years of serving traders with the launch of the largest client rewards campaign in its history. Running until December 2026, the “$2.5 Million Reasons to Trade” campaign offers up to $2.5 million in rewards, recognising the clients who have been part of the company’s journey while welcoming a new generation of

The rebound in Korean and Japanese chip stocks shows how quickly sentiment can rotate on a single overnight catalyst, in this case the Broadcom-Apple supply deal and reports China may allow limited Nvidia H200 purchases, even as the broader macro backdrop stays fragile. The split reaction within each market, chipmakers surging while autos, real estate

The divergence between rising producer prices and cooling consumer inflation captures China’s two-track economy in a single data set: upstream and export-linked sectors are seeing genuine pricing power return as global AI-driven demand lifts advanced manufacturing, while domestic consumption remains too weak for that cost pressure to reach households. That combination squeezes margins for manufacturers

The NZDUSD initially surged after the RBNZ delivered a 25-basis-point rate hike, but the bullish reaction proved short-lived. As broad-based U.S. dollar buying accelerated alongside a selloff in equities, the pair reversed lower. That decline, however, found willing buyers near the 200-hour moving average, setting the stage for a sharp rebound. Today’s rally has gained

Prior week 217K revised from 215K Initial jobless claims 215K versus 218K estimate. Four week moving average 218.75K versus 222.5 K last week Prior week continuing claims 1.806 million revised from 1.814 million previous. Continuing claims 1.814 million versus 1.815 million estimate. The 4-week moving average was 1,808,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous

New York Fed President John Williams is out with some comments on stablecoins and crypto: Stablecoins are more about payments as opposed to stores of value Doesn’t see rising financial stability risks from stablecoins Doesn’t know yet how stablecoins will impact demand for reserves Fed’s ample reserves system is designed to be flexible, can respond

Iranian media with the threats of attacks on US bases in the region. Yesterday such bases in Kuwait and Bahrain came under Iranian attack.  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

The US carried out fresh overnight strikes against Iran, targeting missiles capable of threatening American assets such as aircraft carriers, along with drones and other threats tied to the Strait of Hormuz, according to a US official. The strikes were launched from both land and sea, marking a broader operational footprint than earlier rounds this

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Oil prices surged considerably this week as US-Iran risks resurfaced after both countries exchanged attacks. Yesterday, it looked like we were going back to pre-MoU situation as the US launched a series of strikes on Iran in response to Iranian attacks on three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by

Foreigners have no stake in the Strait of Hormuz US ‘adventurism and interference’ in determining traffic routes in the strait will only result in Iran’s ‘crushing response’ Tehran increased vessel transit in the last two weeks, US actions have seriously disrupted the reopening process of the strait Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said in a statement

All members viewed the risks surrounding the inflation outlook as being to the upside relative to the staff baseline projections It was suggested that the evolution of underlying inflation dynamics was indicative of persistent rather than temporary underlying price pressures It was suggested that it would be misleading to look at current headline inflation in

Governor Shin’s comments mark the clearest signal yet that the Bank of Korea is preparing to move at next Thursday’s meeting, shifting market expectations from a hold to a likely hike after June’s inflation print came in at its highest in two and a half years. The fact that the won has held firm rather

The strikes, say the US military, are aimed at further degrading Iran’s ability to threaten Freedom of Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

Trump says that: “The Iranians called us a while ago and informed us that they want to make deal.” Sound familiar? Because that is exactly the same words used when both sides were fighting and trying to strike a compromise for a ceasefire deal before this. And it’s also the same kind of rhetoric that

Axios reporter with the info:  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

It looks like war is back on the menu, or is it? US president Trump said that he believes the ceasefire deal with Iran was “over” yesterday, before saying that he doesn’t think that the war will start up again here. At the same time though, he says that “anything that happens will be over

The Minutes of Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chairman are out and they have a hawkish tilt: Participants generally assessed that information received over the intermeeting period suggested that upside risks to price stability remained elevated while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had moderated a bit Most participants preferred to drop statement language

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   The Nasdaq has been mostly rangebound since the last FOMC decision due to the Fed tightening risk and overstretched positioning. We saw with the South Korean stock market (KOSPI) how overstretched positioning and a hawkish central bank are not a good mix for the market. The KOSPI officially went into bear market

iFX EXPO, the world’s leading B2B event series for the online trading industry, returns to Hong Kong from 7 to 9 October 2026. Following the success of last year’s return to the city, this year’s edition enters a new chapter as it moves to the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre (HKCEC), bringing together the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar bounced back this week as US-Iran risks resurfaced after both countries exchanged attacks. Yesterday, it looked like we were going back to pre-MoU situation as the US launched a series of strikes on Iran in response to Iranian attacks on three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran

Full report here ECB’s Escriva said he is closely monitoring the uncertain situation in the Middle East following renewed US strikes on Iran, describing the current peace agreement as fragile. However, he emphasized that the ECB cannot adjust monetary policy in response to every geopolitical development and should instead remain focused on the broader economic

It’s been a mixed week for gold after dropping in the past three days, with the US-Iran war threatening to restart. All that before a bit of recovery back to $4,100 today after US president Trump said that Iran is desperate to make a deal again. But after four months of declines and a push

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

The EURUSD has seen two-way price action today, swinging lower, then higher, then back lower before rebounding once again. During the latest move down, the pair tested a key swing low from the daily chart at 1.13908, a level dating back to late July 2025. The session low reached 1.1392, just above that support, where

Government is watching markets with very high sense of urgency Long-term interest rates are decided by markets based on various factors Want to secure market trust by stably lowering government debt-to-GDP ratio It’s not direct verbal intervention and jawboning towards the Japanese yen currency situation, but the headline remark is indirectly alluding to that. The

The push and pull for the dollar continues this week amid a mix of geopolitical headlines from the Middle East. The US-Iran conflict seemed like it was about to start back up after both sides exchanged strikes since the weekend, before US president Trump said that the ceasefire deal is “over”. But after more exchange

On June 18, Iran and the U.S. signed a memorandum of understanding intended to mark the beginning of the end of their military standoff. The deal included 14 points, among them the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and other regional restrictions on Iran, while Tehran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Fast forward

There’s no change to the overall assessment for all 9 Japanese regions, as per the BOJ’s latest quarterly report. Most regional economies are seen as “recovering moderately” still. Besides that, many regions did note a risk of a sharp drop in exports while firms are mulling price increases for food, daily ncessities around the summer

The jump in New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI from 51.3 to 59.7 marks a sharp break from months of soft, near-stagnant readings and points to a broadening domestic demand recovery heading into the second half of the year. Every sub-index moved firmly into expansion, with new orders at 64.1 suggesting the pickup has momentum rather than

Trump’s comments that Iran is now seeking a deal, coming just hours after the first US strike on Iranian infrastructure since the ceasefire, introduce a potential de-escalation signal into what has otherwise been a rapidly worsening week for the conflict. Markets had been pricing continued escalation risk after Wednesday’s exchange of strikes and Trump’s threats

Scotiabank maps out three paths for gold, and none of them get back to the highs. Scotiabank’s precious metals team is out with a scenario analysis on gold that’s highlights the difficulty in pinning down what’s driving it. It’s worth a look, if only because it quantifies something the market has been struggling with all

The additional A$500 million commitment lifts AustralianSuper’s total Indian exposure to A$3.3 billion and signals continued institutional confidence in India’s infrastructure buildout even as global allocators remain cautious on emerging markets more broadly. The timing, landing alongside Prime Minister Modi’s Melbourne business forum appearance, gives the deal added diplomatic weight and may encourage other Australian

ECB’s Escriva: Will keep all options on the table and decide on a meeting-by-meeting basis FOMC Minutes: “A few” participants saw the case for raising rates Gold at $5,000 or $3,150? Scotiabank maps three paths for bullion Iran vows crushing response as CENTCOM says US hit over 80 targets Oil jumps, risk assets fall as

There are some reports about explosions in Iran, bear Bandar Abbas. There are also reports that air defenses have been activated in Southern Iran. Trump strongly hinted there would be attacks today and framed the disclosure as him doing a favor to Iran by forewarning them. This article was written by flc97fe4880a4b454993821fe0b770a597 at investinglive.com.

Bank of America’s call reframes Nvidia’s underperformance as a valuation anomaly rather than a fundamental warning sign, arguing the stock’s next-12-month price-to-earnings ratio near an 11-year low leaves room for a re-rating once August earnings land. The note pushes back directly on two of the market’s biggest overhangs, rising high-bandwidth memory costs and custom-chip competition

The focus for the session is the CPI and PPI data from China.  This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.

The USDJPY is trading higher on the day, extending further above its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at 161.83 and 161.98, respectively. The rally has also carried the pair above the former 40-year high from 2024 near 161.95, an important technical level that should now be viewed as support. Today’s low reached 162.07, just above

Prior was 4.538% This is a solid 0.6 bps stop through. This was the reopening of the quarterly note so it’s a 9-year, 10-month re-issue. Yields have come in a bit since Trump’s latest comments suggesting the war won’t restart. This article was written by flc97fe4880a4b454993821fe0b770a597 at investinglive.com.

Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, delivering its first rate hike in three years. The Monetary Policy Committee judged that monetary policy remained accommodative and signaled that further rate increases are likely, although the pace and timing will depend on incoming inflation and

The price of oil is up 7% today on a resumption of hostilities in Iran. WTI was last up $4.85 to $75.45. It had been trading near $72 until the US launched strikes followed by Trump saying he could strike again tonight. He also said the MOU was “dead”, though he added the caveat that

Oil prices are under some pressure after the latest comments from the US President suggest that he doesn’t want to escalate further: Anything that happens will be over quickly Don’t think Iran war will start again You can’t let lunatics have nuclear weapons Not sure I want to make a deal with Iranian leaders He

Intel Stock: A Buy-the-Dip Idea After a Nearly 30% Pullback? Intel stock has pulled back sharply from its recent high, and the chart is now approaching the kind of zone where dip buyers may start paying closer attention. I would not frame INTC as an automatic buy here, but I do think the decline is

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but just like the ones yesterday, it could add another defensive layer to any downside price extensions in the

The USDCAD has been confined to a well-defined trading range between 1.4148 and 1.42473 since June 19. The topside has been reinforced by a triple top near 1.4247, while the downside has held on four separate tests near the range lows, highlighting the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers. Near the middle of that range

The USDCAD has been confined to a well-defined trading range between 1.4148 and 1.42473 since June 19. The topside has been reinforced by a triple top near 1.4247, while the downside has held on four separate tests near the range lows, highlighting the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers. Near the middle of that range

US Treasury revokes June 21 Iran oil sanctions waiver One-year inflation expectations hit the highest since 2023 in New York Fed survey Trump on Ukraine war: I think we’re going to be settling Fed’s Williams sees steady trend-like growth for the US economy US International Trade balance -$77.6B vs -$78.5B estimate Canada May trade balance

Conflict but not conflict. The US-Iran ceasefire continues to look ever so fragile and vulnerable, basically balancing on a knife’s edge. The latest development this week is basically Iran deciding to attack some ships in the Strait of Hormuz to start with. Then, the US responded with “a series of powerful strikes” against Iran that

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar bounced back this week as US-Iran risks resurfaced after both parties exchanged attacks. The US launched a series of strikes on Iran in response to Iranian attacks on three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by bombing US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, warning of further strikes

An unconfirmed order to halt all vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, even if not yet officially confirmed, is the kind of headline that oil markets cannot afford to treat cautiously, since a full stoppage rather than harassment of individual ships would represent a much more severe supply shock. The nature of the targets

Headlines: Trump says Memorandum of Understanding with Iran is over, don’t want to engage with them US President Trump: Iran are dirty players, they are ‘scum’ Iran issues statement in condemning blatant violation to ceasefire deal by the US Oil prices jump as Trump says that Iran ceasefire deal is over Risk mood sours after

Germany’s push to rebuild both diesel and gas buffers lands at an awkward moment, given diesel supply in Europe is already constrained by the fallout from the Iran conflict and a steep drop in Russian exports has tightened competition for barrels further. The diesel tender adds incremental demand to a market that has little slack

Gold Price Analysis Today: Buyers Defend 4,121-4,129, But 4,156 Breakout Still Matters Gold is attempting to recover after Tuesday’s selloff, with price trading near 4,136 at the time of this analysis. The key message for gold traders today is that 4,121-4,129 is not a clean bearish breakdown zone. It is a support and decision area.

China’s purchase of more than 26 million barrels in a matter of days sits on top of its normal Gulf buying of around 5.5 million barrels a day through formal channels, making this a genuine surge rather than routine restocking, and it lands alongside Germany’s own diesel and gas reserve rebuild, suggesting major economies on

So much for peace and all that, eh? US president Trump is out now in saying that “I think it’s over” on the deal/memorandum of understanding with Iran. It basically confirms that the fragile ceasefire is likely to end and that both sides are going to continue strikes again, at least for now. And in

If the recent decline in oil prices were to persist, the factors that had concerned policymakers would gradually ease The rise in oil prices over recent months had started to be transmitted to other prices in the economy Monetary policy would normally look through one-off energy price shocks, but we started to see indirect effects

For some context, China has been actively restricting refined fuel exports since the US-Iran war began. It all started with an immediate ban in March here, before some easing in the restrictions since April onward. However, the latest directive here marks a significant change in the tone and surely it has a lot to do

Well, perhaps the most surprising thing is that the deal and/or memorandum of understanding managed to last this long. It always felt like it was a matter of time. Both sides are still somewhat playing to the optics but trying to keep at it for 60 days might just be one step too far. Iran’s

Iran are dirty players, they are ‘scum’ Iran shot rockets at ships, that’s why the US hit back Spain is a terrible partner in NATO, I want no business with them Cut off all trade with Spain, all visits Greenland is a big problem for us I’m not happy with NATO over Greenland We are

Globex is open after its daily break. US equity index futures dropped: ES -11 points NQ -70 Oil futures are higher. The news: US military confirm “have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It was never going to be that simple and straightforward. However, this week was supposed to be a calmer one where both the US and Iran take a step back to regather their composure ahead of another round of negotiations next week. Instead, the deal/memorandum of understanding that was struck in late June is now

CENTCOM’s confirmation of more than 80 targets struck, including over 60 IRGC small boats, gives the market its clearest picture yet of the scale of this round, and it is considerably larger than earlier reporting on a fourfold or fivefold increase suggested in isolation. Iran’s insistence that only its own designated route through Hormuz is

US President Trump is speaking to reporters at the NATO summit in Turkey and his comments were mostly just verbal attacks against Iran and European allies. The markets went into risk-off and oil prices spiked when Trump said that the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran was over for him. He added that they are ‘sick

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold continues to erase the NFP gains as traders await the US CPI report. Moreover, we got an escalation in the Middle East as the US launched a series of strikes on Iran in response to Iranian attacks on three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by bombing US bases in

Rate hike and flags more ahead. Full report is here: RBNZ lifts OCR to 2.50% and flags more hikes as inflation risks linger — Background to this: RBNZ set to hike rates to 2.50% on July 8 as inflation persists, poll shows ANZ expects RBNZ to hike OCR to 2.50% despite sharp oil price fall

Deutsche Bank strategist Mallika Sachdeva is out with an FX Special Report today that’s worth your time, laying out three long-term forces reshaping the dollar. The upshot: the greenback’s problem isn’t that the world is abandoning it — it’s that the world is changing how it owns it, and that changes what the dollar is.

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Crude’s slide from the peak reached during the Iran conflict is doing quiet work on the inflation narrative, giving Williams room to sound more relaxed without committing to any change in rate policy. Traders parsing his comments will note the gap between his softer tone on prices and the Fed’s own dot plot, which still

New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee raised the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Wednesday, judging it was time to start withdrawing stimulus even as effects from this year’s oil shock continue working through the economy. First rate hike in three years. The kiwi $ was marked higher (see chart attached). The

ADDED, as I post there are reports of more explosions in Sirik, iran – borders the Strait. The scale escalation matters as much as the strikes themselves, with a US official describing Tuesday’s action as four to five times larger than the previous round just ten days earlier, a trajectory that argues against a quick

U.S. stocks have reversed lower after rebounding into key technical resistance. For the Nasdaq, that resistance came at the 100-hour moving average, currently at 25,969.10. The recovery from today’s low carried the index right up to that level, but, true to the technical picture, sellers leaned against the moving average and forced prices back lower.

more to come Headline draw smaller than expected, distillates draw vs. build expected, gasoline draw greater than expected — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.5 mn barrels Distillates +1 mn bbls Gasoline -1.55 mn — Oil back in the news after an all too brief respite: investingLive Americas market news wrap: Oil

The hike itself was widely expected, but the accompanying guidance that further increases appear likely, even as the committee stresses timing remains highly uncertain, keeps a tightening bias firmly in place for New Zealand rate markets. The explicit split among committee members on risk balance, with two seeing upside skew and four viewing risks as

I was thinking the RBNZ would remain on hold again today but the consensus is looking for a hike, so I guess I’m gonna cave in and accept it. Previews, not all looking for a hike: RBNZ set to hike rates to 2.50% on July 8 as inflation persists, poll shows ANZ expects RBNZ to

The major US indices closed lower led by the NASDAQ index which fell -1.16% or -302.47 points. For the NASDAQ index it never got out of negative territory reaching a high of down -111.14 points at session highs. The S&P index also traded into negative territory for the entire day (got to -1.36 points at

The US Treasury announces that it’s revoking an Iran-related licence. The moves unwinds the sanctions removal from June 21. An official cited by Reuters says that US negotiators continue to work in good fath but also that Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz were wholly unacceptable and will be met with consequences. Are these

The headline says that the crude oil tanker is one that is Saudi-flagged and adds to the earlier attack on an LNG tanker struck in the same area. In case you missed it: More on reports Iranian forces strike LNG tanker and commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz The supposed reopening of the Strait of

Highlights of the latest NY Fed survey: Three-year inflation expectations 3.3% vs 3.1% prior — highest since June 2022 Five year inflation expectations unchanged at 3% Gasoline price expectations ease to lowest since Aug 2022 Households more upbeat about current and expected personal finances Labor market expectations improved Well this is decisively hawkish. The data

China gold reserves at the end of June 2026: 75.44 million troy ounces In May 2026: 74.96 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of June 2026: $303.72 billion In May 2026: $340.75 billion Central bank buying in gold has cooled a little since the turn of the year but China is

In a video yesterday, I spoke to the resistance in the Nasdaq index near the 200 hour MA and also commented on how the QQQ ETF was testing its converged 100/200 hour MAs. You can revisit that post (and watch the video), by clicking below: For those two indices, esch failed to extend above their

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices have briefly fallen below pre-war levels last week but eventually settled above the key 68.00 support zone. The big unwinding should have run its course now and we could see a prolonged consolidation around these levels. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is still murky but overall, there’s no real

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been mostly rangebound since the last FOMC decision but with a bullish tilt. The only major catalyst we got since the FOMC decision was the NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a

A 25 basis point hike would keep the RBNZ in line with hawkish market pricing and guard against inflation expectations de-anchoring, even as the collapse in oil prices undercuts the case for tightening on headline inflation grounds alone. A hold instead risks triggering a sharp dovish repricing, given markets are already pricing a real prospect

An attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz strikes at the artery through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and a similar share of global LNG flows, meaning any sustained disruption carries outsized implications for both crude and gas prices. Even limited, non-lethal strikes on individual vessels tend to raise war-risk insurance

Capital Economics’ view that the BOJ will look through May’s softer wage print keeps its 2% end-2027 rate forecast intact, suggesting markets should not read too much into a single month’s slowdown in cash earnings growth. OCBC’s warning adds a separate but related risk: persistent yen weakness combined with rising long-end JGB yields could become

The major US stock indices are closing higher on the day led by the Nasdaq. The Dow closed about 53K for the first time ever with Boeing (+3.55%), IBM (+3.45%) and Goldman Sachs (+3.36%), the biggest gainers. Looking at the major indices: Dow industrial average rose 0.29% to 53,061.30 S&P index rose 54.17 points or

The market is increasingly seeing a peak in computer chip pricing and treating earnings of manufacturers accordingly. The forward multiples of memory chip names in particular are low, with Micron now around 7x forward earnings but the market is sensing that the peak is close and that memory prices will do what they always do:

Crude oil futures have been trending lower since topping out at a corrective high of $110.93 on April 30. That decline extended to a low of $67.04 last week, a drop of $43.89, or roughly 39.6%, from that peak. Last week’s low briefly pushed below the February 27 closing price of $67.28—the day before the

Sector Overview The US stock market presents a complex landscape today, punctuated by significant activity in various sectors. While the technology sector generally shows volatility, there is stark contrast within its subsectors. Notably, the semiconductor industry is experiencing a considerable downturn, with notable players like Intel (INTC) plummeting by 9.87% and Micron (MU) down by

The important lessons of the Iran war: 1) The global economy is much more resilient than feared. The 1970s style fears about the United States falling into recession over oil prices were always over done. It’s such a smaller shares of wallet and industrial costs now but in the emerging world and even in parts

The USDCAD has been one of the strongest trending currency pairs since May 1, rallying from a low of 1.35492 to a peak of 1.42473, a level that capped advances on June 24, June 25, and June 30. Since that triple-top formed, however, the pair has shifted from trending to consolidating. Over the past two

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level. It doesn’t really tie to any technical significance, keeping just below the key hourly moving averages in the range of 1.1406-20 currently. As such, the expiries

Oil traders await the US CPI data after war premium fades and prices stabilize above $68 Today’s oil analysis shows the bearish map flipped The S&P 500 remains mostly rangebound with a bullish tilt as traders await the US CPI data Another crude oil tanker reportedly damaged near Oman, around the Strait of Hormuz China

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar came under some pressure in the final part of last week following the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a July hike are now standing at just 25%, while the probabilities

The USDCHF is trading higher on the day, with the latest push lifting the pair back between its key 100- and 200-hour moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart above). That puts the market at an important technical crossroads. The 100-hour moving average comes in at 0.80539, while the 200-hour moving average sits

More – Samsung’s record profit fails to stop shares plunging, dragging KOSPI down 6% Nasdaq analysis today at investingLive.com as Asian session shows tech under pressure Asia stocks fall as chip selloff spreads, breaking ranks with Wall St highs Softer Japan wage data unlikely to derail BOJ hikes, even as yen risk grows PBOC’s Pan

Outlook remains fragile Upside inflation risks coexist with downside growth risks Latest energy shock must not be dismissed as temporary Latest energy shock is not a replay of 2022 Monetary policy must adapt to a changing economy Latest rate hike decision was robust across a range of scenarios Robustness of policy choices very important in

Crude Oil Futures tradeCompass Update: The Bearish Map Flipped After 68.70 Reclaim Prediction Score: +3 / +10Bias: Bullish repair while crude oil futures hold above 69.40-69.60, but not yet a clean upside breakout unless buyers continue building acceptance above 69.60. Crude oil futures have shifted meaningfully since yesterday’s analysis. The prior bearish map was valid

The scale of the disconnect between Samsung’s earnings beat and its share price reaction points to a market already positioned for strong results, leaving little room for further upside on the headline number alone. The simultaneous declines in SK Hynix and Micron suggest investors are reassessing the memory chip cycle broadly rather than Samsung specifically,

The increase in the Southbound Bond Connect quota, from 500 billion to 800 billion yuan, expands the channel through which mainland investors can access Hong Kong’s bond market, potentially supporting demand for Hong Kong dollar and offshore yuan denominated debt. Pan’s comments that foreign exchange reserves will increase allocation to Hong Kong markets add a

If accurate, the episode would fit a broader pattern of Chinese authorities treating candid economic commentary as politically sensitive, particularly warnings that draw comparisons to Japan’s prolonged stagnation. Such incidents can have a chilling effect on independent economic analysis originating from within China, making it harder for investors to gauge genuine sentiment among domestic academics

The currency pair continues to do battle in and around the 162 level to start the new week. And according to Credit Agricole, this sort of push and pull is likely to persist for longer with Tokyo officials set to help keep things in check – for now at least. The firm notes that: “The

May 2026 data from Japan. Household spending: +3.7% m/m expected +1.4%, prior +1.6% -0.3% y/y expected -2.5%, prior -0.5% Wages: Average Cash Earnings +3.2% y/y expected +3.4%, prior +3.5%) Same Sample Base Cash Earnings +2.9% prior +2.9% Overtime Pay +2.9% y/y prior +4.2% — I’ll have more to come on this separately. This article was

US stocks close higher. Another record for the Dow. Nasdaq is the best performing index Crude oil settles down $0.14 at $68.55 German Dax/Italy FTSE MIB close at a new records, but other indices close lower. ECBs Wunsch: it seems that Iran shop has disappeared. Have not seen much 2nd round effects More from Waller:

Nasdaq Today: Bears Have Control Below 29,840, But Traders Should Be Careful Chasing Weakness Prediction Score: -5 / +10Current bias: Bearish while Nasdaq remains below 29,840-29,950, but short entries become lower quality if price is already pressing into 29,715-29,700 support. Nasdaq has failed another attempt to hold the important 30,000 area. After trading above that

The mood music yesterday was a better one with US stocks posting a broader advance across the board. Tech shares led the way to start the week but now, we’re starting to see the ugly side of things creep back in today. The drop is being led by a big selloff in Asia, with the

Halifax/Llyods house prices +0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.1% UK house prices rose for the first time in four months in June, with the typical property now costing £299,330 on average. Of note, the annual growth also nudged up a little to 0.6% but the quarterly change reflects a 0.4% decline to house prices

Industrial production +0.9% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.4%; revised to +0.2% That’s a modest bump up in German industrial output for the month of May, following a downward revision to the April figure. The less volatile three-month comparison shows production from March to May 2026 being 0.1% higher than in the three preceding months.

The next round of talks have been postponed by a week, with both sides claiming it to be due to funeral processions. However, Araghchi is offering up a bit of a reminder as to how fragile the current understanding can be. He says that: “Para 13 of the MoU is clear: Negotiations on final Deal

Japan wage data (cash earnings data) is expected to remain solid. Household spending looks set to fall year-on-year for a sixth consecutive month in May, as households continue to tighten belts against still-high living costs. Part of the decline reflects a tough comparison: last May saw a sharp spending spike, largely from car purchases, after

Bitcoin’s ability to rise on Monday despite fresh doubts over the reserve’s legal footing suggests the market is treating the plan as a longer-term structural question rather than an immediate price driver. With the federal government’s holdings worth more than $20 billion, any eventual resolution, whether housed at Treasury or Commerce, could still matter for

The selloff in chip-related shares across Japan and South Korea highlights how closely the Nikkei tracks sentiment in Samsung and the broader Korean market, even when the trigger is a strong earnings forecast rather than a weak one. The rotation out of technology and into financials and other value names suggests investors are using the

Social media post from the prez. The Federal Reserve will like to see price drops, if this is real. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. prior close 6.7924 Injects 10bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) is UK Royal Navy Naval Reserve–manned: UKMTO has received a report of an incident 8NM east of Limah, Oman. A tanker has reported being hit by an unknown projectile on the port side causing a fire, whilst travelling southbound. No casualties or environmental impact reported. Authorities are investigating. Oil

The shift toward Clearwater highlights a new kind of flexibility in Canada’s oil sector, one built for speed rather than scale. Where oil sands megaprojects take years to plan and build, Clearwater wells can be drilled and brought online within months, letting producers respond almost in real time to firmer prices or supply shocks such

Crude oil futures settled at $68.55, down $0.14 (-0.20%) on the day. Prices traded between a high of $69.26 and a low of $67.82. From a technical perspective, buyers made an attempt to push above the falling 100-hour moving average, currently at $68.77, but the move lacked follow-through and quickly faded. Meanwhile, the 200-hour moving

The EURUSD and GBPUSD have both turned sharply higher in the early North American afternoon, with buyers gaining momentum. For the EURUSD, the pair has erased its earlier losses and is now trading close to unchanged on the day. From a technical perspective, the key development is the failed break below the 100-hour moving average

European stocks finished mostly lower on Monday as investors took profits after the STOXX 600 touched another record high earlier in the session. The broad STOXX 600 slipped 0.35% to 650.5, with weakness in healthcare, utilities, and food & beverage shares leading the decline. Despite the broader pullback, Germany’s DAX outperformed, rising 0.15% to another

The Nasdaq index came under pressure last Thursday after spending much of the week battling its 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below). Throughout the end of June and into early July, buyers repeatedly pushed above that key technical level, but only by a modest margin. Buyers had their shot. They missed. Each

Crude Oil Futures Analysis: Price Still Below the Key Intraday Decision Zone Crude oil futures remain under short-term pressure while price trades near 68.50, just below the key 68.60-68.70 intraday decision zone. For now, the investingLive tradeCompass read stays bear-leaning below that area, while swing traders may prefer to judge the larger bearish case against

ECB Schnabel (hawk) says: Current price shock cannot simply be looked through. Prices are already generating indirect and potentially second round effects We are not in a pre-war situation even after fall in oil prices. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Tech and healthcare stocks diverge: A tale of contrasting fortunes Today’s stock market landscape showcases a stark contrast between the performance of technology and healthcare sectors. Investors and traders are witnessing mixed signals across various market segments, reflecting an intricate tapestry of sentiment and sector-specific news. 📊 Sector Overview Technology: The technology sector is offering

Goldman’s revised central-bank demand model, which lifted its estimated purchases to roughly 60 tonnes a month through 2026 from an earlier 29-tonne pace, gives the bullish case a firmer structural anchor even after the bank trimmed its year-end target by $500 in June. The dispersion across Wall Street, from BofA’s more cautious $4,800 to JPMorgan’s

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. prior close 6.7780 more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Headlines: A week later and not much has changed with the Strait of Hormuz situation EUR/USD continues to erase the NFP gains as focus remains on the US CPI data. What’s next? Yen-tervention risks remain in focus to start the new week Gold extends the pullback after the mixed NFP, but the focus remains on

The episode highlights how fragile the strait’s reopening remains even after the mid-June US-Iran deal, with shipping volumes still running well below pre-war levels and vulnerable to sudden disruption whenever Iran presses its claim over the authorized transit route. The rise in ships going dark, switching off transponders to avoid detection, points to growing uncertainty

The USD is higher with the USDJPY the biggest mover with a gain of 0.59% after testing a swing level near 160.446 on Friday and bouncing and continuing the run to the upside today back through the 100 and 200 hour MA between 161.86 and 161.92. Remember the 161.95-97 was the old high from 2024

The “Trump Accounts” are opening today, and Pres. Trump when asked if they would include Bitcoin, responded by saying “I am a big fan of crypto” and that the Trump Accounts could include the digital currency. It was reported over last week or so that President Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure shows that cryptocurrency became the

In his prepared remarks, Fed’s Waller said: Forward guidance remains a valuable monetary policy tool when used under the right circumstances. Forward guidance can strengthen monetary policy transmission by influencing financial conditions before actual policy rate changes occur. When it works, forward guidance can change economic conditions more quickly than adjusting the policy rate alone.

The USDCHF moved lower last week, and in the process tested an important swing area between 0.80090 and 0.80178 (rednumbered circles on the chart below) on both Thursday and Friday. The decline also reached the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the May 29 low to the June 24 high, a level that came in

Goldman’s shift to one of the most bearish USD/JPY calls on the Street, alongside a market-implied probability of around 72% for 165 by next June, suggests positioning and forecaster consensus are increasingly aligned around further yen weakness rather than a reversal, even with the currency already trading well below what most models suggest is fair

Goldman cuts yen forecast to 165, among most bearish on Wall Street ASB backs RBNZ hold in July Hong Kong pension fund to ease rules on gold ETF investment, source says Oil glut could weaken Iran’s Hormuz leverage as stocks slowly refill Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge, June 2026: 32.9% y/y (vs. prior 4.4%) New Zealand

ANZ’s call for a hike framed around risk management rather than a strong economic signal suggests the bank sees limited room for the RBNZ to sit still even with headline inflation pressures easing. The emphasis on a soft New Zealand dollar as an underappreciated inflation risk points to FX markets as a key channel to

Australia Melbourne Institute inflation gauge is a privately conducted survey. Its not so much focused on any more now that the Australian Bureau of Statistics produces monthly CPI data. 3.9% y/y for June 2026 prior 4.4% -0.4% m.m prior -0.3% Also: ANZ-Indeed Job Ads, also for June -0.2% m/m prior 1.8% This article was written

From the end of last month: There’s still mud in the waters on how things are playing out with the Strait of Hormuz Last week, the average traffic saw around 30 to 40 vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz per day. And despite that, crude oil tankers were still limited to less than double digits

Towards the end of last week, USD/JPY offered up some interesting price moves. The currency pair fell in the run up to the US jobs report before some pushing and pulling in holiday-thin trading on Friday. But after settling near unchanged from just before the non-farm payrolls, we’re now seeing the pair run up again

Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy Inc. (formerly known as MicroStrategy), is the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company. Strategy has disclosed the sale of 3,588 Bitcoin (BTC) for approximately $216 million between June 29 and July 5, 2026. According to a regulatory filing, the liquidations were executed to fund distribution payments for the company’s perpetual

Any resumption of Japanese purchases would mark a symbolic shift in Iran’s export base, which has leaned heavily on Chinese buyers since 2019, though the near-term impact on flows looks limited given the temporary waiver’s narrow window and unresolved shipping risk. Well-stocked Asian refiners are unlikely to rush into orders under a waiver expiring August

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar came under some pressure in the final part of last week following the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a July hike are now standing at just 24%, while the probabilities

Pouyanné’s comments point to an unusual bifurcation in the oil complex, with crude prices collapsing on a stockpile overhang even as refined product markets stay tight and priced well above what current Brent levels would imply. That gap creates an opportunity in refining margins for companies with spare processing capacity, while continuing to squeeze fuel-dependent

Japanese markets open the week with the yen having pulled back modestly from Tuesday’s 40-year low, but the underlying pressures that drove it there remain firmly in place, keeping intervention risk on the table for the session(s) ahead. The combination of a still-weak currency, rising import costs and a fresh 30-year high in benchmark JGB

A near-even shadow board points to genuine uncertainty heading into the July review, suggesting markets should not treat a hold as a foregone conclusion and may see volatility around the decision itself. The consistent view that the OCR needs to reach 3 to 3.25% over the coming year, regardless of the July call, anchors medium-term

S&P 500 ES futures are +0.4% to open the new week’s trade. NQ +1.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Stockholm meeting fits a broader pattern of Beijing signalling openness to foreign capital at a time of slowing domestic growth and soft consumer demand, aiming to shore up sentiment among multinationals weighing exposure to China. Coming just ahead of a China-EU leaders’ summit, the outreach to a marquee European investor like the Wallenberg family

The report says that the Chinese navy has launched a missile towards an area in the international waters of the South Pacific. Adding that they have conducted the test launch of said strategic missile by submarine. Earlier in the day, media reports from Australia and New Zealand said that the respective governments were informed of

Not too much change from late on Friday. I’ll be back soon with weekend news. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The rotation into India reflects a broader search for diversification as concerns build over the durability of the AI-driven rally in markets like South Korea and Taiwan, positioning the Nifty 50 as a relative safe haven precisely because of its limited AI exposure. Falling volatility, a stabilizing rupee and receding oil-linked pressure on refiners and

The divergence between the world price index, up 1.3% year on year, and the NZD-denominated index, down 0.3% in May on currency strength, highlights how much of the recent gains are being offset for New Zealand exporters by exchange rate movements rather than being passed through in full. Aluminium remains the clearest read-through from the

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Anthropic’s plans to buy 1.4GW of Aussie data centre capacity will cost as much as $US15 billion ($21.6 billion) to build, Australian Financial Review cite a tender issued confidentially by Anthropic Anthropic is about six weeks away from making a final investment decision This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

An 18-fold profit jump would confirm the memory sector’s rally is being driven by genuine earnings momentum rather than speculation, reinforcing the trillion-dollar valuations now attached to Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron after triple-digit share gains this year. Rising DRAM and NAND prices point to further margin expansion for memory makers even as they squeeze

The Barmer commissioning underscores a widening divergence in global refining capacity, with India adding processing capability just as Western economies continue to retire ageing plants, a trend likely to shift the geography of refined product exports further toward Asia over the rest of the decade. With India projected to account for close to a quarter

It’s a quiet one the data agenda, these unlikely to move financial markets around too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mon: BoC Business Outlook Survey (Jul), German FactoryOrders (May), Swiss Unemployment Rate (Jun), EZ Construction PMI (Jun), RetailSales (May), PPI (May), US Composite/Services PMI Finals (Jun), ISM ServicesPMI (Jun) Tue: EIA STEO (Jul), Japanese Household Spending(May), German Industrial Production (May), French Balance of Trade (May), USADP Weekly Employment Change, Balance of Trade, RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism(Jul),

Nike stock analysis: Is NKE quietly building a long-term bottom after earnings? Nike stock is showing signs of a constructive long-term repair after its recent post-earnings volatility. The setup is not strong enough to justify chasing rallies, but the chart has improved enough that patient investors may want to watch pullbacks into support. On my

Discover the real reason why trading consistency beats intensity, and how you can turn consistency into consistent profits The post Why Trading Consistency Beats Intensity appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

The widening gap between redemption requests and actual payouts points to a liquidity mismatch that is becoming harder for fund managers to paper over, with even less-exposed names like Apollo, Ares and HPS now seeing requests accelerate. Managers gating withdrawals to preserve capital, rather than meeting requests in full as some did earlier in the

BOE seeks to hit inflation target without damaging output Market pricing puts the odds of a hike in November at roughly 50%. If oil stays down here the effects of the war should be unwound quickly so we will see where inflation lands by Q4. The pound is up 6 pips to 1.3352 today and

Services PMI 49.4 vs 48.9 prelim Prior 47.7 Composite PMI 50.0 vs 49.5 prelim Prior 48.5 Both the services and composite prints are 3-month highs respectively, reflecting a modest recovery in business activity in the euro area to wrap up Q2 2026. New business volume may have fallen for a fourth successive month, but at

The rebound confirms fuel prices, rather than a broader loss of confidence, were the key driver of the March slump, with the sharp and symmetric reversal in inflation expectations likely to reinforce the RBNZ’s comfort that the price shock is not embedding itself into household psychology. The pickup corroborates other recent signals, including a bounce

Services PMI 54.2 vs 50.9 expected Prior 50.1 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 48.1 Final Composite PMI 49.5 vs 48.0 prelim Prior 48.8 Key findings: Business activity falls for third month running, but cost pressures ease substantially June sees further, albeit slightly slower, drop in business activity Input price inflation retreats to seven-month low Employment falls at weakest rate in current sequence of job losses Comment: Phil

Cereal and packaged food giant General Mills reported earnings this week and the read from the was unambiguous: the consumer is stressed, staying stressed, and the company is planning around it rather than hoping for a turn. The core messages is that they don’t assume any improvement. Dana McNabb (COO) laid it out directly: “What

Services PMI 46.8 vs 47.4 prelim Prior 44.3 Composite PMI 47.2 vs 47.6 prelim Prior 44.9 The final readings are softer than the initial estimates but at least reaffirms that the downturn in the French economy is less profound in June than it was in May. Of note, the PMI data reveals the slowest declines

UBS sees Fed on hold as Warsh downplays inflation risk despite hike bets China services growth eases slightly as export orders hit 20-month high Japan fin min says ready to respond to FX moves PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8047 (vs. estimate at 6.7808) Canada – PM Carney confirms southern Trans

Interest rate moves are determined by markets Monetary policy falls under the jurisdiction of the BOJ Government will continue to work closely with the BOJ Will not pursue fiscal policies that undermine market confidence Closely monitoring market movements with high sense of urgency Always monitoring daily market moves, economic indicators Will take appropriate action on

Gold rallied in Asia and has held its gains since in quiet holiday trading. It’s up $53 to $4147 and looking to climb for the first week in five. The gain today came in a burst in Asia and topped out at $4194 before chopping sideways. Gold has struggled since topping at $5418 just before

Prior 49.3 Final Composite PMI 49.3 vs 49.4 prelim Prior 49.7 Key findings: Activity falls to greatest extent for nearly three and a half years New orders decrease for fourth month in a row Input cost inflation eases to its lowest since March Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “June

The main highlight in ending the week for US markets was the non-farm payrolls release yesterday. It was a disappointing headline figure, which led to further downside in the dollar. In case you missed it: US June non-farm payrolls +57K vs +110K expected Still, US stocks closed in a more mixed mood amid a big

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has weakened across the board yesterday following the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a July hike dropped to 17% vs 30% before the NFP release, and the probabilities for a

UBS call that markets are overpricing Fed tightening. UBS see current elevated yields as a buying opportunity in short- to medium-maturity quality bonds rather than a level to fade. The disconnect between resilient headline jobs data and decelerating wage growth is central to UBS’s thesis that labor market strength isn’t translating into the kind of

Japan’s largest union group Rengo confirms that the final tally of the annual labour talk results showed that Japanese firms have agreed to raise pay by 5.01% on average this year. This figure is of course watered down from the 5.26% according to preliminary estimates, as is typically the case. That now makes it three

Prior 49.4 Composite PMI 50.8 vs 50.4 prior Key findings: Growth of Italian service sector reinstated, supported by fresh intake of new business in June Strength in domestic sales drives renewed growth in total new business Cost pressures soften and confidence improves Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The service sector joined

It’s a quick drop of around 50 pips for USD/JPY this time, with the timing of things being somewhat similar to when the drop yesterday occurred. This time around at least, we’re seeing the dollar also stay under pressure across the board after having softened following the US non-farm payrolls yesterday. In case you missed

There are a few large expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. However, they do sit quite a distance away from the current spot price. As such, the expiries highlighted may not feature much into play but is worth noting just in case. The first one is for EUR/USD

Bitcoin Futures Analysis Today: BTC Repair Holds, But Bulls Still Need $62.7K Confirmation Bitcoin futures have repaired from the late June lower-value zone, but the move is now stalling below the first major daily confirmation area. The short-term structure is no longer bearish while BTC holds above $61,100-$61,300, but a clean bullish takeover still needs

US June non-farm payrolls +57K vs +110K expected US initial jobless claims 215K vs 220K estimate. US May factory orders -1.3% vs -1.8% expected US officials believed Israel might have been plotting to assassinate Iran’s negotiators Zuckerberg: AI agent development over last four months hasn’t accelerated as expected Blackstone said to abandon a large data

American officials were worried that Israel was plotting to kill Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the parliament, during ceasefire negotiations in April. The NYT reports. Fearful that an Israeli assassination effort would doom the negotiations, the United States, according to some of the officials, went so far as

The headline return to expansion is unlikely to shift RBA rate expectations much given it was driven by staffing rather than demand, with new orders now contracting for a fourth straight month and backlogs being run down rather than rebuilt. The sharpest signal for markets is the confidence collapse to a two-and-a-half-year low, which points

Lagarde’s insistence that the June hike remains appropriate even under a more favourable Middle East scenario signals the ECB is prioritising underlying inflation persistence over a peace dividend from the Iran ceasefire, limiting scope for near-term dovish repricing. The modest 0.1 percentage point downgrade to growth, against a labour market still near record-low unemployment, points

Earlier in the week we had official PMIs from China China factory PMI beats forecast at 50.3 as AI-linked exports drive expansion China’s domestic demand engine sputtering despite stronger headline PMI And also the private manufacturing PMI: RatingDog PMI caps China’s strongest quarter for manufacturing since 2020 Today it’s the private services PMI. The ‘expected”

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has been consolidating above a key trendline since last week as the hawkish repricing reached a near-term peak. Traders are now waiting for the US NFP and US CPI reports to pick a direction. Right now, the market is pricing in a 29% chance of a rate hike in July, which rises

So much for the fireworks in the Nasdaq. Earlier today, I highlighted the potential for a Fourth of July, America’s 250th anniversary rally, as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were flashing bullish technical signals. The S&P was pulling away from its 200-hour moving average near 7471.61, while the Nasdaq had pushed above its own

The new platform enables traders to compare prop firms side by side using hundreds of funding rules, account features and trading conditions, making it one of the most comprehensive futures prop firm comparison tools available. Prop Firm Compare https://propfirm.compare/ has announced the launch of its new advanced comparison engine, offering futures traders a faster, more

Headlines: What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? The US jobs report will be the main event to end the week US futures keep more pensive awaiting jobs data Japanese yen sharply higher on suspected intervention, speculators running for the exit? Quick fall in USD/JPY as we get to the handover from

The Japanese yen has risen sharply across the board, especially against the US dollar, in a suspected intervention. Earlier in the session, we got a report citing sources saying that Japanese officials will stop signalling intervention risks and start focusing on targeting speculators. This led to a rally in the Japanese yen as traders started

Yesterday, the gold buyers pushed the price above the 100 and 200 hour MAs. I wrote about it in a post outlining the bullish tilt: I ended that post saying the following: “If buyers can defend that support and extend the rally above today’s high at $4,115.67, it could trigger another wave of short covering

The initial reaction was to the downside after the we can expected US jobs report. However we are seeing some clawback of the declines in the greenback. In the video above I take a look at the technical levels in play for the USDCHF, USDCAD, USDJPY and EURUSD after jobs report. What levels are in

New financial channels that comply with laws and regulations are changing the way individual investors trade across markets. As the integration of digital assets and traditional financial markets accelerates, an increasing number of investors are seeking unified, automated solutions for cross-market trading and management. MoneySimpler has launched a free AI trading bot, providing users with

There are so many things to like about the US economy but this is an ugly chart. US labor force participation fell another 0.3 percentage points in June to 61.5% and excluding the pandemic, is now at the lowest since 1976, when women still hadn’t fully entered the labor force. For some perspective, if participation

Data via Stats NZ. Number of new dwelling consents approved in New Zealand fell 4% m/m in May 2026 rose 20.6% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Gold has struggled badly since the start of the Iran war but it’s showing some signs of life today as it attempts to rebound above $4000. That big psychological levels was broken several times in the past week but with little follow through. That might indicate that buyers are adding at that level. If so,

Sector Overview Today’s stock market showcases a mixed bag of sector performances with significant movements shaping investor sentiment. The technology sector witnessed contrasting fortunes, as Apple Inc. (AAPL) soared by an impressive 3.69%, showcasing strong investor confidence, potentially tied to recent announcements or positive quarterly reports. However, other tech players like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Intervention rumours on this move. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

CPI +0.5% vs +0.5% y/y expected Prior +0.6% Core CPI +0.3% y/y Prior +0.3% Swiss headline annual inflation nudges down slightly in June to 0.5%, with the monthly estimate coming in flat when compared to May. As for core annual inflation, that remains unchanged in June at 0.3%. As such, the overall outlook is pretty

Personally feels that June rate hike was the appropriate decision Delaying rate hikes would cause excessive decline in the yen currency and hurt households more Expects BOJ to raise interest rates again at the end of the year Then again around the summer of next year before pausing BOJ should continue to raise interest rates

A coordinated retreat from forward guidance across the Fed, ECB, BOE and BOC raises the odds of choppier price action around future policy meetings, since markets will have fewer explicit signals to anchor rate expectations. Traders who have relied on dot plots and guidance language to pre-position ahead of decisions may need to lean more

The turn of the month isn’t working out too well for US stocks, with tech shares coming back under some pressure yesterday again. It was a poor showing in June for big tech, with the Magnificent Seven posting its worst collective month on record. Hyperscalers are being punished as investors are in the show me

Prior was +172K (revised to +129K) Two-month net revision -74K April was +179K Unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.3% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.3% Unrounded unemployment 4.1889% vs 4.296% prior Participation rate 61.5% vs 61.8% prior U6 underemployment rate % vs 8.1% prior Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings +3.5% y/y

Don’t see any signs of lack of economic resiliency, despite above-target inflation That’s also a good sign for U.S. economy Labor market is stabilized Inflation has risen on tariffs, oil price shock Oil prices have come down, hope for relief U.S. monetary policy is slightly restrictive That should help inflation come down There is a

Thailand’s USD 600 Million Asset Freeze Puts Cross-Border FX Settlement Risk in Focus Fintech can be complex and Thailand’s largest asset-freeze dispute is becoming more than a legal story. For investors, FX operators, fintech firms, and regional banks, the case raises a practical question: can ordinary pooled-payment infrastructure become a regulatory risk if enforcement agencies

Prior week initial claims 215K revised to 216K Initial jobless claims for the current week 215K vs 220K estimate 4-week moving average for the initial claims 222K vs 224.5K last week Prior week continuing claims 1.821M Continuing Claims 1.814M vs 1.810M estimate 4 week moving average for continuing claims 1.803M vs 1.792M last week. The

Crude oil futures are settling at $68.58, down $0.92 (-1.32%) on the day. The session low reached $68.03, while the high topped out at $70.19. Today’s decline established a new cycle low, taking prices to their weakest level since February 27, the day before the Iran conflict began. For reference, crude settled at $67.28 on

It is one of the steeper falls given the five to ten minute timeframe, as compared to the jittery moves in the past few weeks. However, it is still not entirely clear if this is an intervention push or perhaps just a rate check by Tokyo officials. I would be quite surprised if it was

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been supported since the last FOMC decision but as the hawkish repricing reached a near-term peak, the momentum waned as traders shifted their focus to the key US data. Right now, the market is pricing in a 29% chance of a rate hike in July, which rises to

It’s a rare non-farm payrolls Thursday with US markets closed for July 4 tomorrow. I don’t think the headline itself is a big event. The consensus is 110K and the market might be a touch below that after yesterday’s ADP but even a big miss to the downside would be brushed aside after the past

The US jobs report will be released a day early ahead of the 4th of July long holiday weekend starting on Friday. US markets and government offices will be closed tomorrow. The expectations are for: Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% last Non Farm Payroll 110K vs 172K last Private Payroll 110K vs 120K last Average

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. prior close 6.7880 Injects 288.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil prices dropped to a four month low following Trump’s comments downplaying the risk of renewed conflict, with analysts cutting price forecasts for the first time since the war began. The unresolved status of the Strait of Hormuz remains the key swing factor for freight and energy markets, given the waterway’s outsized role in global

Accelerating inflation strengthens the case for a Bank of Korea hike at the July 16 meeting, with two board members already dissenting in favour of a move in May and roughly two thirds of economists surveyed expecting at least one hike by September. A weaker won compounding imported price pressure adds a currency dimension to

Equity markets have already run hard on the back of the US profit cycle and AI driven demand, leaving strategists warning that valuations offer fewer bargains than earlier in the cycle. Bond markets are reflecting the inflation side of the story, with long end yields climbing across developed markets as investors price in central banks

The move underscores how severely the AI driven memory crunch is reshaping supply chains for consumer electronics makers, with Apple’s willingness to engage blacklisted suppliers signalling just how constrained alternatives have become. Any formal agreement carries material regulatory risk, given the prospect of Washington escalating CXMT and YMTC onto the stricter Commerce Department Entity List,

Australia Trade data for May 2026. Just the data in this post. Trade Balance -AUD3018mn expected $2175mn, prior $1791mn Exports -6.9% m/m prior +7.2% Imports +2.6%% m/m prior +0.8% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There are just a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are all for EUR/USD and layered between 1.1350 through to the 1.1400 level. The ones at the figure level will be of more interest, as they have been in recent days as well. But considering the

The major US stock indices are closing lower. The Dow was the last of the major indices to move into negative territory in the last minutes of trading but only by -0.02% The gainers in the Dow 30 were led by Nike (NKE): +5.07% — Closed at $43.13 (+2.08) Salesforce (CRM): +4.25% — Closed at

While Aussie trade balance is marked in red its not really too much of a high priority item. Nothing on the calendar for the session here is likely to much financial markets too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Rate markets have already pared back conviction on a July move, with hike odds slipping from above 80% a week ago to a range now clustering around the high 60s to 70%. The retreat in crude toward the high USD60s a barrel, down sharply from the roughly USD101 assumed in the RBNZ’s May projections, is

More on this: Trump earned $1.4bn from crypto in 2026 as most token holders sit at a loss US payrolls preview: June NFP seen slowing sharply to 110k after May’s surge Bank of Korea official says Bank has capacity to take steps on the weak won Australia’s trade blows out to big deficit vs. surplus

Gold buyers are beginning to push back, but they still have work to do before wresting control from the sellers. Since peaking near $4,890.96 on April 17, gold has been in a steady downtrend, with corrective moves along the way. The decline pushed the price below both its 100-day (currently at $4667.04) and 200-day moving

The shift toward unsignalled intervention raises the cost of holding short yen positions, since traders can no longer rely on jawboning to unwind ahead of MOF action. That heightens two-way risk for USD/JPY around any local data surprise or Fed repricing, with Thursday’s US payrolls seen as a key swing factor given hopes a soft

A little jawboning to try to prop up KRW This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

CBA’s Global Economic & Markets Research team flagged the report poses upside risks to USD/JPY, arguing another upside surprise would likely prompt markets to reassess the US rate outlook further, potentially pushing the pair toward 165 and testing Japanese authorities’ resolve to defend the yen. A weak print, by contrast, would support the case that

UBS expects AI-related capex to approach USD 1 trillion next year, arguing capacity constraints across the AI supply chain support further gains in AI-linked equities even as concerns about capex sustainability persist. The bank sees a broadening rally as cyclical sectors catch up, aided by easing energy costs and improved supply visibility as Strait of

The disclosure adds a political risk dimension to pending US crypto legislation, with ethics provisions barring officials from profiting off regulation they oversee now a harder sticking point for Senate negotiators needing 60 votes to advance the bill. Broader sentiment toward Trump-linked tokens could stay weak given roughly two-thirds of memecoin holders and 85% of

US stocks close lower. Midday rise in the Nasdaq fizzles Crude oil futures settle at $68.58.Lowest settle going back to the start of the Iran War. USDMCA: US did not agree to renew USMCA in current form. U.S.-Iran talks focus on Hormuz as toll dispute threatens nuclear deal Atlanta Fed GDPNow tumbles to 1.2% from

The Mexican economy minister is speaking more about the USMCA news Mexico wants to address US concerns on foreign independence. Says he doesn’t see a substantial difference in between Mexico, US, and Canada that cannot be resolved. Says he proposed to US to reduce section 232 on steel and aluminum, coordinate regional level. It will

Regional equities here getting sold heavily. Equites getting hit. South Korea Kospi dumped 6%. Japan’s Nikkei down more than 2.5% Posting this as background. – Record outflows from South Korea and Taiwan reflect index concentration risk rather than a broad risk-off shift, with long-only funds trimming winners to stay within diversification limits rather than exiting

Rate spread dynamics are reasserting themselves as the dominant EUR/USD driver now that Middle East risk premium has largely unwound from oil prices. A narrowing gap between US and European yield expectations, as Fed hike pricing fades faster than ECB pricing, points to scope for the pair to grind higher through 2026 and into 2027.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that SpaceX has developed a prototype AI devise to investors. They reportedly showed some investors ahead of the IPO back in June. Prototype unveiled: SpaceX has reportedly showed select investors a prototype of a slim, handset-like AI device ahead of its anticipated IPO back in June Not yet a

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 tumbled to 1.2% from 2.5% last. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2026 is 1.2 percent on July 1, down from 2.5 percent on June 25. After recent releases from the US

Meetings involving U.S., Iranian, and Qatari technical teams have started following discussions between U.S. envoys and Qatari leaders. Doha talks underway: U.S. and Iranian negotiators resumed talks in Doha, with the primary focus on the future management of the Strait of Hormuz. Toll dispute at center: Iran wants to impose transit fees on ships after

ECB’s Lagerde: Had perfect monetary policy Outlook to raise rates if I have one regret is is that I was bound by for guidance in the past. Looked at inflation outlook with risks. Risks are more broadly balanced than a few weeks ago. We are not in a stagflation environment We are not going to

Sector Overview The US stock market today presents a vivid landscape of contrasts. Technology stocks show a mixed performance, with semiconductor companies experiencing notable losses. Micron Technology (MU) leads the downturn with a significant 7.07% decline, followed closely by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) which fell by 5.47% and 4.16% respectively. Conversely, the

Fox’s Edward Lawrence is reporting that Pres. Trump has decided not to renew the USMCA opting instead to making individual deals with Canada and Mexico that last 10 years In other news: Based on the financial disclosure released this week, President Donald Trump reported more than $2.2 billion in income for calendar year 2025. That

The broader US indices are erasing their earlier declines. The Dow industrial average is now trading up 206 points or 0.40%. The S&P index is up 16.45 points or 0.22%. The NASDAQ index is trading unchanged. At session lows today: Dow industrial average was down -292.02 points S&P index was a down -49.72 points NASDAQ

As per earlier reports, US official says that the US did not agree to renew USMCA in current form United States will continue to engage with Mexico and Canada to address agreements shortcomings and heartrate deficits with these countries. Agreement remains “in force” pending resolution of these issues or until agreements termination USTR will continue

The USDCAD is modestly higher on the day, but has surrendered most of its earlier gains during the North American session as Canadian markets remain closed for the Canada Day holiday. From a technical perspective, the pair at the start of the day found support after dipping below its converging 100- and 200-hour moving averages

No need to rush into any decision amid latest decline in oil prices It would be prudent not to rush into policy action Lower energy prices should quickly feed into lower price expectations and keep wage pressures down ECB can wait until next projections to decide if more tightening is needed Only case for more

Preliminary 55.7 Manufacturing PMI xx.x vs 55.7 preliminary Prior month 55.1 For the full report CLICK HERE Details from S&P global US manufacturing expanded for the 11th consecutive month, but growth slowed to a three-month low. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 in June vs. 55.1 in May (above 50 signals expansion). Demand & Production Output

To to watch the forum of central banking click on the link above. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh is speaking on Wednesday Canada, Mexico push to save USMCA as US holds out for changes Korea exports surge on AI chip boom as shares slide on profit-taking RatingDog PMI caps China’s strongest quarter for manufacturing since 2020 China S&P Global/Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI, June 2026: 51.7 (expected 51.6, prior 51.8)

Prior 54.0 Last month was highest reading since May 2022 New orders 56.0 vs 56.8 prior Production 52.2 vs 54.3 prior Employment 49.7 vs 48.6 prior Prices paid 73.0 vs 78.0 estimate and 82.1 prior New export orders 48.5 vs 50.6 prior imports 52.9 versus 53.0 prior. Inventories 42.3 versus 42.7 prior. Supply deliveries 57.4

ECB’s Kassik: One more rate hike remains a reasonable expectation Expects to have a clearer picture on wage developments by the autumn. Believes the conflict is unlikely to have a lasting impact on oil prices. Continues to see one additional ECB rate hike as a reasonable expectation. At the central banker forum in Sintra earlier

Manufacturing PMI 54.3 vs 56.5 expected Prior 57.3 Swiss manufacturing activity growth eases in June as both production and new orders also drop on the month. Of note, the latter dropped noticeably to 53.5 – down from 59.4 in May. The only bit of good news is that both purchase prices and suppliers’ delivery times

Would need stronger second-round effects to justify further tightening Any inflation surprise before the July meeting more likely on the downside Oil prices could fall below pre-war levels Most oil production capacity should be restored within a quarter if conflict is over One hike could be enough if shock fades before significant second-round effects More

Meta is upsetting the AI apple cart say that they are building a cloud business to sell excess AI compute. The announcement with the word “excess” has shares of AI companies moving lower: Nvidia trading lower by $3.54 or -1.77%. Micron is trading down $71 or -6.3% Marvell technologies are trading down -4.16% Broadcom shares

Bailey’s comments reinforce a patient BoE reaction function, leaning against any near-term case for a rate move despite inflation set to climb to 3.2% later this year. His framing that the bond market has already done some of the tightening work, via higher market rates since the Iran war began, suggests the MPC sees current

MUFG’s read is that verbal intervention risk is rising but not yet at the threshold that has historically preceded actual yen-buying operations, which argues against positioning for imminent BoJ or MoF action even as USD/JPY pushes into fresh multi-year territory. The bank’s point that the April/May intervention only briefly dented the broader uptrend is the

China S&P Global/Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI, June 2026: 51.7 expected 51.6, prior 51.8 Rating Dog is a Shenzhen credit-research firm. I’ll have more to come on this separately, just the data for now… ADDED, more here now: RatingDog PMI caps China’s strongest quarter for manufacturing since 2020 On Tuesday we had official PMIs from China:

Prior month 0.4% revised lower to 0.3% Construction spending for the month of May 0.1% US Construction Spending (May 2026) Total construction spending: $2.210 trillion annualized +0.1% m/m (vs. revised $2.207 trillion in April) -1.5% y/y (vs. $2.244 trillion in May 2025) Year-to-date (Jan–May): $858.4 billion, -2.7% from $882.2 billion in the same period of

A third straight month above 50 with the index at a five-month high gives the headline print a constructive look, but the underlying mix is softer than the number suggests, with output falling for a fifth consecutive month and new orders still contracting. The sharp easing in input and output price inflation from May is

Every trading day begins with new information. Economic releases, geopolitical developments, central bank statements, and changes in market sentiment can all influence price movements within minutes. For this reason, successful traders rarely rely on instinct alone. Instead, they begin with a structured daily market analysis before making any trading decision. Daily market analysis is not

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been supported since the last FOMC decision as the more hawkish than expected dot plot led to a quick repricing in interest rate expectations with traders increasing rate hike probabilities. We saw some minor hawkish repricing yesterday as the total tightening expected by year-end rose to 37 bps

The GBPUSD has experienced a two-way trading session today. After rallying into the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the June 15 high at 1.32629 yesterday, the pair initially rotated back down, extending down to test the 200-hour moving average (the green line on the chart above). Buyers leaned against that key risk-defining level, sparking

House price index 0.0% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior -0.6% House price index +2.2% vs +2.4% y/y expected Prior +1.7% The latest snapshot from Nationwide shows that the annual house price growth in the UK moved up a little in June, but arguably owes to base effects for the most part. That as the monthly

Trump is speaking and says: Praises the new Boeing Air Force One (we are all happy for him). Praises Qatar On Iran, says very good meeting and gettng along very well. Denuclearization of Iran is moving along well Praise oil prices moving lower and stocks moving higher We are building a lot of car plants

Crude oil inventories -3.775 million versus -4.466 million estimate. Gasoline -2.333 million vs -1.021 million estimate. Distillates +2.483 million vs -0.513 million estimate. Crude oil futures were trading at $68.80 prior to the report. The low prices today reached $68.22. The closing level on the day before the Iran war started was at $67.28. The

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. As we move past month-end and quarter-end, trading sentiment will now focus back on the usual suspects again. And the lack of major expiries today will help with that transition, with dollar sentiment and the broader risk

The mood music at the start of the year is certainly very much different to what it is now as we approach the second half of the year. In January, everyone and anyone was raving about precious metals and we looked on course for more Fed rate cuts with US president Trump set to get

There will be watchful eyes on Fed chair Warsh and what he has to say today, but he won’t be the only major central bank speaker on the agenda. Warsh is very much in focus with this appearance being just two weeks after his first press conference in the June FOMC meeting. At the time,

Manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 51.0 expected Prior 51.2 That’s a notable miss on estimates as Spanish manufacturing activity slumped to a marginal contraction in June. A steeper drop in new orders and lower output underpins the deterioration of manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, high prices and unwinding of client stockpiling leads to lower sales. The Middle East

Gold has not only lost all the gains it made earlier this year, but has now fallen more than 7% below its starting level. Why? The first blow to the precious metal came from a technical factor — specifically, the CME Group’s increase in margin requirements for COMEX gold futures in early February, due to

The headlines note that Qatar and Pakistan are serving as mediators for the “indirect” technical talks at the moment. Adding that the session is involving chief negotiators and specialist teams from both the US and Iran. Just to add on that, the source says that Kushner and Witkoff met with Qatar’s prime minister yesterday to

CPI +2.8% vs +3.0% y/y expected Prior +3.2% Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.6% There are quite a number of positives to take away from the report here. However, the bottom line is that the numbers will not see the ECB rush into any decision going into the summer break. Inflation data

Australia May 2026 Building Permits -1.1% m/m, 5 falls in the past 6 months expected 1.0%, prior –3.4% Building Permits 5.3% y/y expected 9.5%, prior 10.2% Private House Approvals 2.8% m/m expected –0.2%, prior –1.0% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The scale of the export beat, growth well above the strongest forecasts on the board, reinforces the structural AI-chip demand story underpinning Korean equities, even as the KOSPI’s pullback on the day looks like classic profit-taking after an exceptional quarter rather than any change in the fundamental picture. Foreign investors sold a record amount of

Crude oil is settling down $1.25, or 1.77%, at $69.50. The high price for the day reached $71.60, while the low has been extended to $69.22 in the current hour. Recall that on Monday and Tuesday, buyers pushed crude higher to test the falling 100-hour moving average. Although the price briefly traded above that level

USD/JPY at 162.75 pushes well past the levels that triggered Japan’s last intervention, keeping MoF action risk elevated into a period traders see as tactically favourable given Friday’s thinner US holiday liquidity. The bigger driver remains the US side of the pair, with Treasury yields jumping overnight and Fed hike odds for September surging to

Japan’s intervention since April has helped to slow yen decline against the dollar Have not received nay objections from the US against Japan’s intervention since then Japan-US currency coordination remains close Sure, sure. They still have put up a facade to maintain that illusion that they are well in control of the situation. But considering

A declared non-extension starts a six-year review clock rather than triggering any immediate change to trade flows, so the near-term market impact is limited, but it keeps a long tail of uncertainty over North American auto and steel supply chains that has already been compounded by existing US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican autos, parts,

RBC Economics highlights a firmer start to Q2 in today’s Canadian GDP report after a small contraction in the first quarter of the year. Canadian economic activity increased 0.5% in April, slightly higher than Statistics Canada’s 0.4% advance estimate, which was also the consensus view. The May advance reading was +0.1%. RBC writes: As expected,

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will participate in a panel discussion with the President of European Central Bank Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. 1200 GMT 0800 US Eastern time A moderated ‘policy panel’ / Q&A. The

Vance says Trump is ready to drop bombs again more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The scale of the disclosed crypto income, more than a billion dollars combined across the meme coin and World Liberty Financial, will keep political risk firmly attached to Trump-linked tokens, with renewed scrutiny likely from Democrats and ethics watchdogs over conflicts of interest tied to a sitting president’s personal stake in crypto policy. For traders

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. prior close 6.7880 Injects 100bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

WThe broader US stock indices are closing the 2nd quarter with solid gains. The move higher comes after the decline in the 1st quarter. Looking at the major indices, the 2nd quarter ended with the : Dow Industrial Average up 12.91% S&P up 14.87% Nasdaq up 21.41% Russell 2000 up 21.15% Looking at the YTD,

A 51.7 reading, even easing slightly from May, still confirms China’s strongest manufacturing quarter since Q4 2020, a constructive signal for risk sentiment tied to Chinese growth even as the headline print itself eased to a three-month low. The combination of slowing input cost inflation and accelerating job creation is a favourable mix for margins

Commerce is expected to lift export controls on Fable tonight, a senior White House official tells me – Politico. – Background to this is the recent U.S. government order to AI company Anthropic to suspend global access to its frontier models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, for all non-U.S. users This article was written by

A 54.8 print marks a sixth straight month of expansion and the best quarterly run since Q1 2014, a headline strong enough to support yen-positive sentiment on the growth side, though the detail complicates a clean read. New order growth at its fastest since January 2022 is being partly driven by clients stockpiling against war-related

JOLTs job openings 7.594M vs 7.300M estimate US June consumer confidence 91.2 vs 94.8 expected Canada April GDP +0.5% vs +0.4% expected US April CaseShiller 20-city house price index +1.1% y/y vs +0.9% expected FHFA monthly home price index for April -0.1% versus a revised 0.2% last month Iran’s Ghalibaf: We won’t enter any more

Via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -4.1 mn barrels Distillates +2.9 mn bbls Gasoline -2.1 mn — This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

All markets seem to have moved on from the Iran war but here are some fresh comments: Current meetings held by Iran are aimed at fulfilling MOU commitments We will not enter further negotiations until conditions in MOU are met WTI crude is down $1.02 to $69.73 today. This article was written by Adam Button

What a half-year for memory. The theme of this group writes itself: nine of the ten are semis/hardware, and the leaders are a memory-and-storage cohort. SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital and Seagate are all riding the NAND/HBM/DRAM shortage colliding with AI data-center demand — SanDisk had already nearly +570% in 2025 as a pure-play flash name

Gold consolidates around the 4,000 level as traders await the US NFP and CPI reports ECB’s Wunsch: We might need another rate hike but not necessarily in July Italy inflation only marginally lower in June as services inflation cool a little BOJ policymaker Sato says short-term volatile moves in exchange rate are undesirable ECB policymaker

The USD is mostly higher with the USDJPY up 0.27% and breaking through the 40 year ceiling near 161.95-97. The price moved above the key ceiling with more momentum in the Asian Pacific session and quickly extended to a high or 162.396. The price corrected lower but stayed above the 161.95-97 area at 162.04. The

Buyers are pushing the broader U.S. stock indices higher today. The S&P 500 is up about 35 points, or 0.47%, at 7,475.50, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is gaining 250 points, or 0.97%, to 26,066. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 has now moved above its 200-hour moving average at 7,463.23 (green line on the

Prior month 7.585M Details from the Bureau of Labor statistics 9BLS): Job Openings (JOLTS): Job openings were unchanged at 7.6 million in May. The job openings rate held steady at 4.6%. Openings increased in wholesale trade by 71,000. Hiring Activity: Hires were unchanged at 5.2 million. The hires rate remained at 3.3%. Hiring increased in

CPI +3.0% vs +3.1% y/y expected Prior +3.2% HICP +3.1% vs +3.2% y/y expected Prior +3.2% The preliminary numbers show just a marginal drop in headline annual inflation in Italy for the month of June. And that’s also reflected in core prices as well, with core annual inflation dropping to 1.6% in June from 1.7%

The AUDUSD moved lower earlier in the Asia-Pacific session today, but found willing buyers just ahead of the rising 200-day moving average at 0.68599. The session low reached 0.68655, and the pair’s inability to break below that key support level gave buyers the green light to push prices higher. That rebound gathered momentum during the

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a strong performance in the technology sector, which is primarily driving overall market gains. Multinational tech giants like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have posted significant gains of 1.56% and 3.45% respectively, with Intel (INTC) surging by 4.67%. This points to a bullish sentiment surrounding the

The USDJPY has broken above the 2024 high near 161.95/97 (depending on the data source), and the breakout has been accompanied by strong buying momentum. The pair initially surged to 162.399 before rotating lower, but buyers stepped in at 162.04—just 7 to 9 pips above the breakout area—confirming the old resistance level as new support.

Brazil scored in the 95th minute to beat Japan 2-1. At about the same time, the USDJPY is ticking to a high or 161.97 which continues to push against the highest level since the end of 1986. So far the market is not seeing stops being triggered. It would take a move below the 161.80

The bounce in new export orders to 50.1 offers some near-term support for China-exposed cyclical assets, but ING’s call for second-quarter GDP to slow to 4.6% year-on-year signals the headline PMI beat is unlikely to shift the broader growth narrative. The ex-factory price index slipping back into contraction at 48.2 is the more market-sensitive data

Here are all the state readings released around the same time: Bavaria CPI +2.5% vs +2.6% y/y prior Saxony CPI +2.5% vs +2.7% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.1% vs +2.4% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.1% vs +2.4% y/y prior This should be some added comfort for the ECB as with the French

NPR reported (but has since retracted), a story that arch conservative Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito is retiring. Aside from his votes, Alito might be most famous for flying the flag outside his house upside down after Trump lost the election to Biden. He later blamed it on his wife. His retirement would give Trump

White House: Trump authorizes the temporary suspension of certain duties on phosphate fertilizer imported from Morocco This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.