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The broader U.S. stock indices rallied yesterday on optimism surrounding a reported ceasefire agreement in the Middle East. Today, however, markets gave back some of those gains after Iran appeared to push back on parts of the deal, creating renewed uncertainty. Despite the early weakness, stocks have bounced off their lows following a stronger-than-expected University […]

The draft includes US commitment to lift sanctions, withdraw its forces from around Iran US to cancel oil sanctions and release Iran’s frozen funds Also includes commitment for the US to lift its naval blockade The memorandum of understanding also includes reopening of Strait of Hormuz Final negotiations after this will focus on nuclear and

The Iranian Foreign Minister is saying that: The memorandum of understanding has never been closer the signing is pending its finalization He comments that the media should refrain from entering into speculation about its contents The details of the deal will be forthcoming A diplomatic source is also commenting that the US and Iran have

The launch extends round-the-clock access to two of the most actively traded commodity benchmarks, catering to a retail and active-trader base that has shown surging demand for micro-sized contracts amid heightened geopolitical risk. With Micro WTI volumes up over 300% year on year, CME is positioning these products to capture continued volatility-driven flow, particularly relevant

The rate hike yesterday was necessary That as high energy prices are increasingly having an indirect impact on other prices The supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East is proving to be strong and persistent We cannot simply “look through” it We are keeping all our options open and are ready to

Reuters poll in near unanimous: RBA seen holding at 4.35% on June 16 Westpac sees RBA hold at the June 15-16 meeting, but more hikes ahead IRGC vows “regret-inducing” response, signals no surrender on deal Report – US forces down Iranian drones going for strikes on Hormuz shipping PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for

WTI crude is now down over 4% on the day, accelerating a drop after yesterday’s dive lower. The drop yesterday was somewhat arrested near the 100-day moving average (red line). But now, we’re seeing a firm break below that and could point to further declines in oil prices after the earlier headlines. Of note, we’re

Monthly GDP -0.1% vs -0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.3% Services output % vs -0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.3% Industrial output % vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.2% Manufacturing output % vs -0.2% m/m expected Prior +1.2% Construction output % vs -0.4% m/m expected Prior +1.5% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low

I posted earlier that US President Donald Trump cancelled planned military strikes on Iran that had been scheduled for Thursday night, saying negotiations had reached the highest levels of Iranian leadership and a final agreement could be signed soon. The White House indicated a framework deal has largely been accepted, with Trump suggesting a formal

CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y prelim Prior +2.9% HICP +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prelim Prior +2.9% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More detail here. Injects 393mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Online funding platforms now process billions while filtering retail accounts through automated liquidation triggers, a structure that rewards consistency over size and speed. This article maps the mechanics behind the numbers. Inside retail trading rooms, talk about funded accounts has moved from curiosity to core strategy. You’re seeing TikTok clips promising instant capital, Discord servers

The dip below the 50 threshold adds to a run of soft New Zealand data, though the modest scale of the contraction and BNZ’s expectation of a pickup later in the year limit the immediate read-through for RBNZ policy. The split between struggling micro-firms and resilient large firms also points to an uneven recovery rather

Markets are turning positive again as we see oil prices plunge alongside bond yields and stocks move up. That after Iran’s Mehr News Agency reveals some key details of the memorandum of understanding draft on their end. The question now though, is this the same draft proposal put forward by the US? If so, then

So, do we have a deal or no deal? Or maybe a little bit of both? That is the question that needs answering as markets look to the weekend. For now, markets are reacting kindly in taking to Trump’s latest boy who cried wolf act. Here’s a quick catchup to the happenings from yesterday: Trump

Full report here ECB’s Kocher said yesterday’s rate hike is intended to help stabilize inflation as the Middle East conflict continues to push up energy and commodity prices. Kocher warned that rising energy costs are weakening consumer purchasing power, discouraging investment, and increasing the risk of second-round inflation effects. However, he noted that inflation is

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold jumped yesterday following Trump’s suspension of planned attacks on Iran and the announcement of an agreement in principle for the MoU to be signed in the next few days. Fed rate hike expectations got pared back immediately with the US dollar and Treasury yields falling quickly. Looking at all the reports, the

A near-unanimous expectation of a hold leaves limited scope for a market surprise on Tuesday, with attention shifting to the RBA’s forward guidance and how it characterises Middle East-driven inflation risks. The split over the September outlook, with a notable minority still pricing further hikes, suggests AUD and rates markets remain sensitive to incoming inflation

The focus for the timezone will be developments in the truce announced between Iran and the US: Markets surge as Trump announces deal with Iran Eyes and ears open for detours and roadblocks, but the news is so far encouraging. The data won’t attract much attention: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US forces intercepted and shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran attempted to target commercial vessels transiting the waterway, according to a Fox News reporter. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Shin’s comments add to signs the BOK is moving toward tightening as early as next month, with inflation running at a more than two-year high and the won under pressure. A hawkish BOK alongside elevated oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict could support KRW in the near term, though higher rates also raise

Iran’s pushback introduces fresh uncertainty into a de-escalation narrative that drove sharp moves across oil, bonds, and equities on Thursday. With a tanker reportedly blocked from the strait and Tehran setting out conditions still some distance from Washington’s framing, markets may temper some of the optimism priced in over the past 24 hours. – Iran’s

Technology shares led the Nikkei’s gain. South Korea’s Kospi is +8% too. = ps, while you’re here, the deal on the table is an MOU. 60+ day ceasefire reopening Hormuz within 30 days phased sanctions relief nuclear negotiations ongoing halt to hostilities If its agreed to negotiations will be continuing for a long time to

A potential US-Iran agreement removed a major geopolitical risk premium from markets, sending crude lower, bonds higher, and equities sharply higher. While questions remain about whether Tehran formally signs off on the proposal, investors clearly preferred pricing in diplomacy over missiles. — Trump cancels Thursday strikes on Iran, says deal near complete with weekend signing

The financial industry runs on reputation. Balance sheets tell one story; the market’s verdict tells another. For brokers, technology providers, and fintech firms competing on a global scale, external validation from the people who actually use, partner with, and compete against them carries a weight that no internal marketing campaign can replicate. That validation is

As we look to the ECB policy decision later today, BofA is chiming in with their view on where EUR/USD looks to be headed in the months ahead. Given the circumstances with the Middle East conflict, the firm notes that there is still more potential for EUR/USD to navigate to the downside as markets underestimate

B2BROKER Group has announced a major upgrade to the B2COPY client interface, bringing PAMM, MAM, and Copy Trading services into a single environment. Additionally, the new interface now includes an all-accounts dashboard and expanded CRM integration capabilities, making trading more efficient and accessible. Instead of moving between separate modules for PAMM, MAM, and Copy Trading,

Prior was 5.046% Six auction average of 4.835% Bid to cover vs 2.30x prior The auction prior to this one tailed by 0.5 bps. This is a reopening so it’s 29 years, 11-months, not 30 years. The 1.2 bps tail is a bad sign in a world where congress is debating even more spending and

Trump writes: Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. Discussions and final points have been, in both concept

We are seeing huge moves in markets after Trump announced a peace deal with Iran. The news was confirmed by Israel’s N12, which suggests it’s a broader deal that also includes Lebanon. We are seeing large, immediate moves in markets with the S&P 500 up 1.3%, or just shy of 100 points. The Nasdaq is

Discover why simple strategies beat complex ones The post Why Simple Strategies Beat Complex Ones appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Some indicators of underlying inflation have been driven higher by energy shock Firms are getting ready to pass on higher input prices Households in solid financial position Consumption is a driver of growth The conflict is weighing on activity Domestic demand weaker than projected in March Most measures of inflation expectations stand at around 2%

From earlier today: Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz to all vessels, says ships will be targeted And now they’re repeating that the waterway will remain closed “until further notice”. Before today, there have been some vessels still crossing the strait. From official ship tracking data, these numbers were still less than 10 vessels per day.

Headlines: Iran maintains that Strait of Hormuz is closed until further notice US-Iran talks are still on track according to a CNN diplomatic source US futures nudge up on the session, focus turns to SpaceX IPO ECB preview: forget the rate hike and focus on forward guidance ECB rate hike today will be a mere

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been consolidating against most major currencies since Monday. The US CPI report yesterday came mostly in line with expectations and helped alleviate some of the most hawkish fears. The market pricing hasn’t changed though as traders continue to price in 24 bps of tightening by year-end, down very

Stock Market Overview Today’s stock market session presented a mixed bag for investors, with notable divergence in the technology sector. Tech stocks experienced noticeable shifts, particularly among chipmakers and software giants. 📈 Semiconductor Sector: Bright Spots Amidst Volatility The semiconductor sector shone brightly, with significant gains boosting investor confidence in chipmakers. Noteworthy performers include Advanced

The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points as expected, and ECB President Lagarde delivered a hawkish message after the rate hike, arguing that acting now was necessary to preserve price stability amid rising inflation risks and heightened uncertainty. She emphasized unanimous support for the decision and said the greater risk was failing to act.

After an ugly showing yesterday, US equities are finding a bit of relief so far today – at least for now. S&P 500 futures are up 0.8% with Nasdaq futures up by 1.3% on the day. That is at least leading to a calmer mood so far in European morning trade, though I would argue

The USDCAD is trading at new session highs near 1.3990, extending to fresh highs for 2026 and reaching its strongest level since early December 2025. On Tuesday, the pair pushed to 1.39686, briefly breaking above the previous 2026 high from late March at 1.39663. However, buyers were unable to sustain the breakout, triggering a pullback

The SpaceX IPO is on Friday with the company raising $75 billion in the IPO which would value the company at US$1.75 trillion. It’s both the largest capital raise and the largest company to ever IPO, even though just 4.2% of the company will be floated. The company will be fast-tracked into indexes and that

Prior +10.3% revised to +10.5% In April, the total value of building permits issued in Canada decreased $1.0 billion (-7.6%) to $12.5 billion. Both the non-residential sector (-10.5%) and the residential sector (-5.5%) contributed to the decline in construction intentions. On a constant dollar basis (2023=100), the total value of building permits issued in April

Prior forecast was in January GDP growth could slow to 1.3% if energy supply disruptions continue Emerging market growth seen at 3.6% vs 4.4% last year. Down from 4.0% in January China GDP seen at 4.2% vs 4.4% in Jan Eurozone growth seen at 0.8% vs 0.9% in Jan US GDP seen at 2.2% vs

US Secretary of War Hegseth: US will be hitting Iran hard tonight US to bomb key facilities in Iran Tonight’s strikes will be strong and clear Earlier: Trump: We will be attacking Iran “very hard” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The ECB sees headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028 For inflation ex energy Says Raises interest rate on deposit facility to 2.25% vs 2.00% Raises benchmark refi rate to 2.40% vs 2.15% Raises interest rate on marginal lending facility to 2.65% vs 2.40% Says that “in line with

Prior week Initial claims 225K (Largest since the first week of February) Prior week for continuing claims 1.777 million revised to 1.771M initial jobless claims 229K vs 219K estimate The 4-week moving average was 219,000, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 214,750 Continuing claims 1.795M versus 1.780 million estimate. Prior

A price war between OpenAI and Anthropic would pressure margins at both companies just as they head toward public listings, testing whether their business models can sustain profitability under heavier discounting. Given the interchangeability of their products and how easily enterprise customers can switch providers, any first mover price cut could force a rapid response,

Prior was +6.0% (revised to +5.7%) PPI +1.1% m/m vs +0.7% expected Prior m/m reading was +1.4% Ex food and energy +4.9% y/y vs +5.4% expected Ex food and energy +0.4% m/m vs +0.5% expected Prior m/m ex food and energy +1.0% (revised to +0.7%) Ex food, energy and trade +5.1% vs +4.4% prior Ex

Trump writes on Truth Social: The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT. At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil

Dow Jones futures test a key bear-flag decision zone before the SpaceX IPO Earlier today, I wrote in my Nasdaq analysis of today, that Nasdaq futures were correcting intraday, but still carried only a slight bullish skew, roughly between 0 and +1 on my -10 to +10 market scale, where -10 is the most bearish

e The US dollar is little changed versus the major currency pairs. In the video above I talk about the technicals given the recent price action, but there isn’t a lot of net movement versus yesterday’s close despite modest up and down. The ECB rate decision to raise rates by 25 basis points as expected

Gold is off its early lows today in a bounce to $4,080 levels now, with the low earlier touching $4,024. It’s a slippery slope for gold now after the technical breakdown since Friday. The precious metal is seeing price not only fall below the 200-day moving average (blue line) for the first time since October

A simultaneous attack across Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain marks a significant widening of the conflict beyond direct US Iran exchanges, drawing multiple Gulf states into active defence postures and raising the risk of further escalation involving their own forces and energy infrastructure. Kuwait and Bahrain are both significant within regional oil and gas logistics, and

Nasdaq futures is bouncing, but not fully repaired yet Key takeaways for Nasdaq traders today Nasdaq futures are trying to recover after last Friday’s sharp sell-off. The short-term bounce is real, but the larger market structure is still damaged. The main level to watch now is 28,850-28,900. A move above that zone would make the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been consolidating against most major currencies since Monday. The US CPI report yesterday came mostly in line with expectations and helped alleviate some of the most hawkish fears. The market pricing hasn’t changed though as traders continue to price in 24 bps of tightening by year-end, down very

Bitcoin has been trending lower since peaking on May 10 near its 200-day moving average (green line on the chart above). The inability to move above and stay above that key technical level gave sellers the upper hand and provided the first clue that the rally was running out of steam. Selling pressure intensified when

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been consolidating against most major currencies since Monday. The US CPI report yesterday came mostly in line with expectations and helped alleviate some of the most hawkish fears. The market pricing hasn’t changed though as traders continue to price in 24 bps of tightening by year-end, down very

The ECB is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%, and maintain the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. The central bank will also release new economic projections where inflation is expected to be upgraded for 2026 but remain unchanged for 2027 and 2028. The rate hike will be

The ECB is in a rather unenviable spot ahead of their policy decision later today. It is clear that the central bank will deliver a rate hike, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. But in the context of the bigger picture and the fight against inflation, how far do they need to go in

There are just a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1530 level. It is not one that ties to any technical significance, so the expiries may not factor too much into play. For now, price action is seeing a bit

Reports of explosions near major energy and petrochemical infrastructure on the Strait of Hormuz are likely to trigger an immediate jump in oil prices, with Brent and WTI both vulnerable to sharp gains on supply disruption fears. The proximity of strikes to Asaluyeh, a critical hub for Iran’s gas and petrochemical exports, and to Hormuz

The diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran remain alive despite rounds of military exchanges in the Gulf, with CNN reporting that US-Iran talks are still on track. US President Trump continues to combine military pressure with diplomacy in an attempt to force a broader agreement after months of stalled negotiations and intermittent conflict. The latest

Georgia’s latest purchase is a small but illustrative example of a much larger global trend, with central banks buying over 970 tons of gold in the first quarter alone, close to 80% of all 2025 purchases. This demand has shown low price sensitivity, reinforcing a structural floor under gold prices regardless of near term moves.

ICYMI – Georgia central bank buys $100mn more gold as global reserve demand surges Iran fires fresh missiles at Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain in widening attacks WSJ: OpenAI weighs major price cuts to compete with Anthropic before IPO push Gaslighting the oil market – global oil inventories six weeks from operational minimums PBOC sets USD/

Headlines of this nature carry significant potential to drive a sharp risk off move, with oil likely to spike higher on fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional escalation. Safe haven flows into the dollar, yen and gold would typically follow, while equities and other risk assets could come under

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Conflicting claims between Washington and Tehran are likely to keep volatility elevated, with markets struggling to verify the actual state of play in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military’s denial of any warship strikes, alongside confirmation that commercial shipping continues to transit the strait, may offer some reassurance against the most extreme Hormuz closure

Gold has cracked the March low. The spike low early in the war was $4097 and we’ve just broken through it. That puts gold back where it was in late November and — needles to say — lower for the year. The war and the risk mood aren’t helping. US equities are also at the

A second consecutive day of US strikes, now extending to more naval assets used to threaten shipping lanes, points to a sustained campaign rather than a one off action, likely keeping oil prices elevated and volatile. Targeting of gunboats and mine laying vessels directly addresses Strait of Hormuz transit risk, which markets will read as

The price of crude oil moved higher in trading today with a gain of $1.83 or 2.07% at $90.03. The high price extended to $91.84 help by geopolitical news out of the Middle East that the US would continue their bombings of Iran. The oil inventory data was also supportive with a crude oil inventory

The dip buyers are getting beaten up today. The market briefly rose into positive territory shortly after the open but it’s been downhill since Trump started talking about striking Iran “very hard.” Now Israel’s Minister of Defense Katz is saying the war with Iran is “far from over” and the IDF is prepared to strike

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

The market is trading a tad better after CPI but the details make for a complex picture. The headlines were basically in-line with estimates and core at +0.2% vs +0.3% was a touch soft. Notably though, the unrounded reading was +0.249% so it was right on the cusp. The relief bounce isn’t a surprise given

Trump on Truth Social:”Iran’s Military is a complete and total mess. Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn’t even exist anymore – They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action. The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!! They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would

The US treasury will auction off $39 billion of 10 year notes at the top of the hour. The current 10 year yield is at 4.534%. At the last auction the yield was set at 4.468%. Since the war started on February 28, the low yield was at 3.926% on March 2, the high was

The USDCAD moved lower ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision, trading at 1.3907 just before the announcement. Following the release, the pair briefly dipped to a session low of 1.3900 before rebounding. From a technical perspective, the pair is now back below the 100-hour moving average at 1.3930. Earlier in the session, price

High yield 4.538%. WI level at the time of the auction 4.539%. Tail -0.1 basis points versus six auction average of 0.6 basis points Bid to cover 2.57X versus 2.44X Directs 12.3% versus average of 21.1% Indirects 78.21% versus average of 67.6% Dealers 9.5% vs average 11.4% Auction Grade B+ The only negative was that

The full statement from the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The conflict in the Middle East is now in its fourth month. The resulting increases in energy prices and disruptions in

Treasury Sec Bessent: US has disrupted procurement networks that support Iran. Frozen the Iranians regimes assets severely disrupted is economy. Dismantled its war machine Bessent adds that the US treasury will not tolerate any support of the Iranian military. arlier Pres. Trump said that the US will be attacking Iran hard and that they have

Looking at the closing levels for the European indices, the UK FTSE 100 is the only bright light with a gain of 0.27%. The worst performer is the German Dax. A look at the closing levels shows: German DAX, -0.83% France CAC -0.51% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.27% Spain’s Ibex, -0.18% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.46%. As

Prior was 2.25% Rates have been held steady since a cut in October The war is weighing on global economic growth and pushing up inflation the US administration continues to propose new tariffs US economic growth remains solid supported by consumption and AI‑related investment In the euro area, growth is subdued Global equity markets have

The sharp acceleration in PPI is the notable number here, and it carries direct implications for global goods inflation. Chinese factory-gate prices feeding into export supply chains will lift input costs for manufacturers worldwide, adding to the inflationary pressure already flowing from the Middle East conflict and the AI-driven surge in electronic component prices. The

The currency pair continues to keep above the 160.00 mark so far in trading this week but is not really running away for now. Traders are reserving some caution in not wanting to incur the wrath of Japan’s ministry of finance. As price action keeps above the key psychological level, we have effectively erased the

As Adam pointed out, the inflation story was “overwhelmingly a gasoline story,” with energy accounting for more than 60% of the monthly increase in CPI. That characterization may help explain why the market’s initial reaction has been relatively muted. However, the bigger issue for policymakers is what comes next. We’re now well into June, the

It’s finally time for the CPI and the market is nervous. Gold and silver cracked today, breaking the war lows on fear that Trump doesn’t have the ‘imminent’ peace deal that he’s promised 37 times (according to CNN’s count). Now it looks like the pendulum is swinging towards further escalation with Trump writing: “Iran’s Military

Headlines: Trump on Iran: They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal, now they will have to pay price Iran’s Baghaei: Tehran needs to re-assess talks with the US following overnight clashes US futures hold lower with inflation data in focus The S&P 500 is at risk of another selloff as traders hold their breath

Given the circumstances, BOJ deputy governor Himino will be the one to chair the monetary policy meeting next week. Policymakers will be convening for the two-day meeting with the decision set to be announced on 16 June. As for the press conference duty, that will be delegated to BOJ deputy governor Uchida instead. I don’t

Iranian drone strikes on the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain represent a fundamental escalation, taking the conflict out of Iranian territory and into the heart of the Gulf’s US military infrastructure. Bahrain’s air defenses are reported to have repelled the attack, but the mere fact that Iran has struck a US base in a third

Three ‘waves’ of attacks reported: More on this news: US strikes southern Iran after Apache helicopter downed over Hormuz Second wave of US attacks on Iran said to be underway US launches third wave of Iran strikes as ballistic missiles fired from Isfahan Latest response, unconfirmed: Cruise missiles launched from Bandar Abbas toward the Persian

The formal conclusion of US strikes removes some immediate uncertainty but does not reduce the risk premium,- Iranian ballistic missiles were already airborne before CENTCOM issued the all-clear, and Tehran has made clear retaliation is coming. The deliberate targeting of air defense, radar and ground control infrastructure around Hormuz is strategically significant, as it degrades

The USD is little changed vs the EUR, JPY and GBP to start the North American session. IN the video above, I take a look at the technicals that are defining the bias, the risk and the targets for those pairs ahead of the CPI data at 8:30 AM ET In other developments, geopolitics remain

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are both for USD/JPY at the 160.00 and 160.50 levels. Much like before, the expiries here may not be of that much influence in dictating price action for the currency pair. As things stand, intervention

Given the escalating tensions in the Middle East—including reports of an Iranian drone attack on an Apache helicopter and a subsequent U.S. retaliatory strike—one might have expected crude oil prices to surge. Instead, WTI crude is only modestly higher, up about $1.23 at $89.45, suggesting traders remain hesitant to aggressively price in a major supply

Trump says he’s close to ordering new strikes against Iranian power plants and bridges Tehran taking too long to make a deal Trump said on Fox News that he is close to authorizing new strikes against Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, while accusing Tehran of dragging out negotiations and refusing to accept a

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The correction in the S&P 500 has finally started as the hot NFP number last Friday acted as a wake-up call for the hawkish Fed risks. I mentioned back in May that we were approaching an inflection point due to the prolonged US-Iran stalemate and the shift in Fed’s stance. The rally in

The dual signal from Washington, striking Iranian territory while simultaneously insisting the deal survives, introduces a new layer of uncertainty that markets will struggle to price cleanly. Targeting air defense and radar infrastructure near Hormuz raises the operational stakes considerably, and Iran’s vow to retaliate keeps escalation risk elevated. The possibility that drone program sites

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The oil market has been dead for months. The price action has been mostly rangebound with bouts of volatility caused by US-Iran headlines. There is no direction whatsoever, just noise in a wide range. Last Friday, we got some interesting reaction to the US NFP report. Oil prices fell alongside many other markets

War news dominated, read from the bottom up for chronology: Iran strikes US bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain as retaliation widens across region Iran attacks US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain after American strikes target Hormuz defense CENTCOM declares Iran strikes complete after three waves targeting Hormuz defenses Oil has risen as the US has

Headline CPI: Prior was +3.8% m/m reading +0.5% vs +0.5% expected Month-over-month unrounded +0.631% Unrounded headline +4.249% vs +3.811% prior Core measures: Core CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Last month +0.4% Core CPI y/y +2.9% vs +2.9% expected. Last month was +2.8% Unrounded core +2.851% vs +2.750% prior Real weekly earnings vs -0.2% prior

Nasdaq analysis today: Prediction map for traders as the rebound stalls below $29,110 Last updated: 10:00, Wednesday, 10 June 2026 (CEST), Time in Berlin The Nasdaq is trying to repair after a sharp washout, but today’s Nasdaq analysis still leans neutral to mildly bearish while price remains below $29,110. For traders asking how to trade

It’s a heated morning already as we look to US trading later with Trump going on blast about Iran today. The message is that he’s had just about enough as negotiations continue to drag on and now Iran must “pay the price”. As such, he is threatening fresh strikes against Iran’s infrastructure while indirectly reaffirming

A forex brokerage knows who deposited. It knows when someone last logged in. What it often cannot see quickly is whether that account has been trading daily for six weeks or has gone silent after a single deposit. That information exists inside MT5, MT4, or cTrader. But if it is not feeding into the CRM,

Tehran needs to re-assess talks with the US following overnight clashes With its continued ceasefire violations, the US harms the diplomatic process Iran is signalling a tougher stance toward diplomacy with the US after the latest round of US-Iran military exchanges, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei saying Tehran must “re-assess” its negotiations with the United

With continued ceasefire violations, the US is harming the diplomatic process The news from yesterday was that an Iranian drone shot down a US helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. After which, the US moved to retaliate and hit 20 Iranian targets overnight in a three-stage strike. At the same time, Iran also launched an

US May existing home sales 4.17m vs 4.07m expected US International trade balance for April -$55.9B vs -$56.1B estimate SpaceX IPO said to be almost four-times oversubscribed Anthropic releases Claude Fabel 5, it’s “Mythos-class” model. Trump: Iran responsible for shooting down Apache Helicopter. Must respond militarily. Reports of explosions in Tehran Canada April trade balance

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold extended the losses yesterday as traders likely hedged into a potentially hot US CPI report today. Friday’s strong NFP number triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations and traders are now questioning not if, but when and how many rate hikes the Fed will deliver this year. The limited US-Iran escalations

With nonfarm payrolls up 172,000 in May, more than double the 85,000 expected, the Fed has more reason to stay focused on inflation, and things aren’t looking great. After CPI rose 3.8% year over year in April, the highest in three years, RBC Economics expects headline inflation to increase by 0.5% month over month in

Traders and investors were sent reeling after the hot US jobs report at the end of last week. Since then, there is an air of nervousness surrounding equities – not least with the US-Iran conflict continuing to rage on. The trepidation is likely tied to the fact that market players will have to deal with

The People’s Bank of China allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 159bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It’s a rough day in the precious metals market and one of the most-concerning ones of the year. Gold and silver have often traded inversely to oil during the conflict. There is/was a big risk that countries would have to sell gold reserves in order to pay for oil imports or to support currencies if

Japan’s m/m ‘wholesale inflation’ measure, PPI, is expected to pull back. For China, m/m CPI is expected to be subdued, despite rising costs for manufacturers,- both for the inputs they buy and the goods they produce, as a result of the Middle East conflict. Further upward pressure is likely from the surge in electronic component

Via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -3.4 mn barrels Distillates -0.2 mn bbls Gasoline -0.6 mn This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is a categorically different order of escalation. Long-range missile strikes on Al-Azraq in Jordan, home to F-35 infrastructure and command-and-control facilities, signal that Iran is prepared to hit high-value US air power assets deep outside the Gulf theatre. The simultaneous opening of three fronts, Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait, suggests a coordinated retaliatory doctrine rather

US Central Command said it carried out self-defence strikes against targets inside Iran from 5pm ET, ordered by President Trump in direct response to the shooting down of a US Army AH-64 Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz the previous day. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bandar Abbas is the nerve centre of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz operations, and confirmed strikes there mark a qualitative escalation beyond radar and air defense sites. The reported launch of ballistic missiles from Isfahan introduces a new dimension of retaliatory risk that will weigh heavily on energy markets. Gulf state allies hosting US assets are

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

In a volatile trading session, which had the NASDAQ index trade with a 1279 point range, the S&P index with a 244 point range, and the Dow industrial average with a 1050 point range, the major indices closed mixed Dow industrial average rose by 86.03 points or 0.17% to 50,877.10. At session lows the index

A direct, named threat from Iran’s Foreign Minister raises the geopolitical risk premium a notch above anonymous state media statements. Language referencing battlefield defeats and historical consequences for outside powers suggests Tehran is not inclined to absorb the strikes quietly. Any Iranian counter-strike on US assets or regional shipping infrastructure would put Hormuz back at

The strikes mark a sharp escalation in direct US-Iran military engagement and raise fresh doubts about any near-term peace deal, which markets had been tentatively pricing in. Hormuz closure risk is again front and centre, with the strait already blocking roughly a fifth of global crude and LNG flows. Any sign the conflict is widening

The NZDUSD and AUDUSD fell sharply last week, with the help of the stock liquidation on Friday. That led to risk off flows for the currencies and a flight into the dollar. Both the NZD and the AUD, however, are rallying today (USD moving lower) on the opposite risk-on flow, but at different speeds. For

The Bank of Canada will deliver its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday and almost surely hold rates steady at 2.25%, the same place where rates have been since a cut in October. The market also sees very little chance of a rate hike at the July 15 meeting so there is no needs for

Pres. Trump has posted on TruthSocial: Stocks have continued their slide with the NASDAQ now down around 900 points or -3.5%. The S&P is down -160 points or -2.15% and the Dow industrial average is down close to 500 points on the day. The shooting down of the helicopter was reported last night but it

High yield 4.192% WI level at the time of the auction 4.189% Bid to cover 2.64X versus average of 2.61X Tail 0.3 basis points Dealers 15.3% versus average of 13.9% Directs 21.01% versus average of 22.2% Indirects 63.71% versus average of 63.9% Auction Grade: C The mix of the buyers was near the averages as

Five minute trading halt for South Korea Kospi futures as shares rocket higher. Japan’s Nikkei jumped too. Rebounding after Monday losses. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump warned that a US response was coming due to the shot-down helicopter but the public pre-warning and him highlighting that the soldiers weren’t hurt is a sign that he doesn’t truly want to escalate. Journalist Mohamad Ahwaze on X said he’s hearing the sound of powerful explosions in Tehran. We will wait for more

The 25 basis-point move is fully priced, so market reaction will turn almost entirely on the tone of the accompanying statement and updated staff forecasts. Any signal of a more aggressive near-term path beyond the anticipated Q3 follow-up hike would likely push eurozone yields higher and support the euro. The Morgan Stanley view that fiscal

The remarks are carefully calibrated but carry a mild cautionary undertone toward further BOJ tightening. Kiuchi’s explicit acknowledgment that rising rates could affect the economy through various channels is a gentle signal of government sensitivity to any aggressive move, without crossing into direct interference with BOJ independence. The emphasis on continuing to work closely with

The modest confidence improvement offers slim comfort for RBA watchers given the index remains firmly negative across all industries and profitability is the weakest sub-component relative to its long-run average. The drop in capacity utilisation below 82%, the first such reading since early 2025, is consistent with an economy losing momentum and adds to the

The USD Is lower to kickstart the North American session today. The EURUSD (up 0.34%) and the GBPUSD (+0.49%) are leading the way. The USDJPY is down modestly at -0.02%. The markets are reacting to modestly lower yields, lower oil and higher stocks as the formula for a lower greenback. Less tension in the middle

There were rumors that Mythos would get a public release today and that’s proven to be true. Anthropic is calling it Fable 5 and says it’s a ‘Mythos level’ model. It’s been immediately rolled out and says it takes 2x the usage of Opus, so those rate limits will come fast. Fable 5 is clearly

Markets appear to be disconnecting from some of the traditional risk drivers today. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 have surrendered earlier gains and slipped into negative territory, even as Treasury yields remain little changed and crude oil prices continue to move lower. WTI crude oil is down roughly $3.50 to $87.70, its lowest level

The USD has reversed course from the declines earlier today. Stocks which were higher at the beginning of the day have now reversed sharply to the downside. The NASDAQ index which was up 330 points at session highs is now down -732 points or -2.83%. The S&P index was up 77.43 points at session highs.

Here are the pre-market levels: S&P 500 +40 or +0.5% Nasdaq +258 points Russell 2000 +26 points The market is optimistic about a wrap-up in the Hormuz mess after Trump said a deal could come in the next couple days. That was underscored by a report in the past hour that Saudi Arabia was passing

It’s getting ugly. The Nasdaq opened 1% higher but it’s been a nosedive since and it’s now down nearly 2% and at the lowest levels since in a month. There has been no clear trigger for the reversal but one of the reasons for the rally was dubious. Trump and administration officials once again said

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar rallied strongly across the board on Friday as the very hot NFP gain with higher revisions for the prior months served as a wake-up call that the Fed could be forced to raise interest rates. The job gains have been much higher than the estimated breakeven rate lately. The

The filing sets up what could be the largest technology IPO on record, with public market pricing expected to test whether frontier AI companies can sustain private-round valuations once audited financials are visible to all investors. The simultaneous path to market for both OpenAI and Anthropic creates an unprecedented side-by-side comparison of rival AI economics,

Prior 95.9 The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.6 points in May to 95.3, remaining below its 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index rose 3 points from April to 91, remaining well above its historical average of 68. As reported in NFIB’s monthly Jobs Report, the NFIB Small Business Employment Index remained essentially

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar rallied strongly across the board on Friday as the very hot NFP gain with higher revisions for the prior months served as a wake-up call that the Fed could be forced to raise interest rates. The job gains have been much higher than the estimated breakeven rate lately. The

A quick summary of events from the past day: Iran announces end to military operations against Israel However, Israel maintains that this does not mean the end of attacks against Hezbollah Iran continues to report “major obstacles” in agreeing to a deal Iran officials maintain that US is not showing “sufficient commitment” to work things

China’s May trade data is the focus, though its not likely to move major markets too much upon release. Export and import growth have tended to exceed expectations so far in 2026. Higher tech prices are boosting both export and import prices, helping the numbers rise. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior month -$60.3B revised to -$56.6B Good trade balance (R) -$-83.01B vs -$82.4B (Prelim). Prior -$85.30B Exports $327.1 Billion,+2.6%° Imports $327.1 Billion,+2.0%° Looking at the 3 month average of the goods and services trade deficit, is steady. Headline Numbers Exports: $327.1 billion Up $8.3 billion from March Imports: $383.0 billion Up $7.6 billion from March

Pentagon adds Alibaba, Baidu and BYD to China military-linked firms list China’s May trade balance, exports and imports all higher than expected Daiwa sees BOJ June hike as bid to avoid falling behind the curve Australia business confidence improves in May but stays deeply negative China car sales fall 22% in May as oil prices

For some context, Goldman Sachs had already pushed back their rate cut call from September to December last month here. But with their latest bump, they now expect the Fed not to cut rates at all this year with the first move set to follow only in June next year. “We are pushing the final

A bearish read from one of Wall Street’s most-watched strategy teams adds to the cautious tone already circulating around stretched tech valuations. The note flags that the gap between the index’s best and worst performers is now near levels last seen during the pandemic, with the IT sector spread hitting its widest since February 2000.

Prior was +1.78 billion Exports $75.16 billion vs $72.77 billion prior Imports $72.44 billion vs $70.99 billion prior This was the largest monthly surplus since January 2025 and is the second month of surpluses. Energy did the heavy lifting again, up 9.7% after March’s 23.4% jump — and both moves were price, not volume. Crude

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 153bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The designations stopped short of sanctions or export blacklist status, limiting immediate financial damage, but the indirect procurement restrictions create real supply chain pressure for US defence contractors that currently work with listed firms. Baidu ADRs fell 2.1%, with Alibaba and BYD each down 0.8% on the news. The timing is the most diplomatically sensitive

The cryptocurrencies space has been quite interesting in the past month, or should I say even for this year so far. While most other risky assets have risen and stayed more resilient, it has been anything but that for cryptocurrencies. Typically, you’d associate moves in crypto together with stocks. The direction tends to correlate especially

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1570 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could act as a bit of a ceiling for price action, in the event we do get any

“Two or three days.. we have a very good chance of doing it” US will issue a report on Hormuz incident later today Pilots involved the incident are fine We will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon Iran’s economy is struggling, they will have to come to an agreement As things stand, the

The results put AstraZeneca into direct competition with Eli Lilly in the race for a convenient oral GLP-1 therapy, a market widely seen as the next major growth frontier in pharmaceuticals. Elecoglipron’s 10.5% weight reduction at 26 weeks is broadly competitive with Lilly’s orforglipron, which produces reductions of 8.6% to 12.6% across dosage levels over

Industrial production +0.4% vs +0.5% m/m expected Prior -0.7%; revised to -0.1% The increase in industrial output for the month comes mostly from both the construction and energy-intensive industries. When taking into account manufacturing excluding energy and construction, German industrial production for April was unchanged compared to March. Just also note that there was a

Tehran has declared U.S. revisions to the draft deal unacceptable, warning negotiators that a ceasefire and agreement cannot be reached without guaranteed sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. Al Jazeera report on the repeated demand from an Iranian official. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Ether futures struggle below key resistance as traders watch whether $1658 becomes the next breakdown trigger Ether futures current area: around $1666-$1668Prediction score: -3 / +10Primary bias right now: Bearish while Ether futures remain below $1686-$1691Key idea: Ether futures are trading in a lower balance after a bearish impulse. Sellers still have the advantage below

The major U.S. stock indices finished mixed after giving back a significant portion of their early gains. In premarket trading, the NASDAQ was higher by more than 500 points, and although the cash-session high reached a gain of roughly 470 points, sellers gradually chipped away at the advance throughout the day. The index still managed

The rate decision is very much expected at this point, with several sources already “leaking” the matter to markets. And so far, market pricing is very much in tune with that as traders are pricing in ~84% odds of a rate hike. As a reminder, the BOJ will announce their latest decision next week on

The data reinforces the structural shift underway in the world’s largest auto market, with high oil prices accelerating the transition away from internal combustion vehicles faster than the headline sales decline might suggest. The record 62.9% NEV share and 54% of exports being new-energy vehicles signals that Chinese manufacturers are using the domestic downturn to

Info via a Washington Post reporter: You probably don’t need me to tell you Trump has been spouting ‘over soon’ baloney for months. Earlier: Iran says again no deal unless sanctions relief and release of frozen funds This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A mix day for the US stock indices. Dow closes lower. S&P and NASDAQ rise WSJ: Trump seeks peace, but Israel and Iran keep testing the limits Iran Official: Major Obstacles Remain in U.S.-Iran Talks Silver traders take the price below the 200 day MA for the 1st time since April and failed What you

The RBC call frames any intervention-driven yen bounce as a tactical entry point rather than a trend reversal, a framing that will resonate with momentum traders already watching the 160 level. Katayama’s reaffirmation that Tokyo stands ready to take decisive action adds a short-term two-way risk overlay, but RBC’s structural argument is that intervention cannot

Silver came under heavy pressure since breaking below its 100 day moving average back on May 15. On Friday, the price fell sharply on the back of the dollar rising. Today the momentum continued with the price falling to its lowest level since March with the price reaching $66.17. In the process, the metal briefly

The Wall Street Journal is outlining what happened over the last 24 or so hours and what continues to be clear is that Trump and Netanyahu seem to be diverging more and more. Netanyahu continues to say that he and Trump are on the same page, but Trump is not liking the implications of the

Senior Iranian official Ebrahim Azizi says a deal is not imminent, citing major unresolved issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment. Trust remains the biggest obstacle, with Tehran saying it has yet to see a “serious will” from Washington to finalize an agreement. Iran says it is open to negotiations in principle, provided the

In the Kickstart video at the start of the North American session, I highlighted how the EURUSD was bouncing from targeted support near the 1.1500 level. At the time, the pair had also moved back above its 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 5-minute chart, a positive technical development. However, for buyers to gain

IRGC says they responded to Israel’s attack on petrochemical plant by launching missile on similar plant in Haifa IRGC says Israel started a dangerous game by targeting oil industry and civilian sites Reports say Iran fired 30 missiles at Israel since Sunday Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson says overnight developments will only worsen the chaotic situation

The USDCAD extended its rally to a new high of 1.3953 today, the highest level since April 6. In doing so, the pair pushed above the April 6 high at 1.3948, signaling continued bullish momentum. However, the move stalled just short of the March 31 high at 1.3966, which remains the highest level of 2026

Advanced traders no longer operate from a single screen. They run bots, track dashboards, feed signal pipelines, query analytics systems, and increasingly explore AI-driven tools — all simultaneously, all demanding live data, structured account access, and execution logic that moves at the speed of the market. Conventional trading interfaces were not designed for that reality.

Israel’s Netanyahu is speaking after his the Security Council meeting and says: Military operations against Hezbollah are not yet over. The fire on the Iranian front is contained. If they fire again we will respond forcefully He calls Hezbollah and Iran weaker than ever, but acknowledges that the struggle is not over Says that Iran

The headlines are fast and furious with the US seemingly trying to stay at arms length between Israel and Iran/Lebanon. Netanyahu and Trump spoke and subsequently Israel has ceased its preparations for a new round of strikes on Iran.. Earlier today Pres. Trump said that Iran and Israel were looking to do an immediate cease-fire.

Israel’s Netanyahu will apparently decide on escalation and Iran at their Security Council meeting this evening. Pres. Trump has urged a cease-fire. Headlines continue to contradict each other. US stocks are higher but not as high as premarket levels. The NASDAQ index is up around 290 points or 1.12% (the index was up over 500

In addition to the latest rumors of strikes on a US base in Saudi Arabia, now we have a much more credible report from Israel’s military, which says it has identified the launch of a missile from Yemen towards Israel. There are also other reports of launches from Iran towards Israel. Update: There are reports

Often, the price action on a chart tells a story that is far more important to traders than the latest fundamental headline. That story is centered on one thing: risk management. Successful traders are constantly looking for levels they can lean against—areas where they can define their risk tightly while maintaining the potential for a

So much for Trump restraining Netanyahu. Maybe it was a ruse, maybe Bibi doesn’t care what Trump wants. There are reports of explosions in Tehran, Tabriz and Isfahan, according to Iranian reports. Earlier, I noted there were reports from the US military of objects over Jordan so this isn’t entirely surprising. It’s not clear if

Trump on Truth Social: Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly. Thank you

Prelim was +2.1% Q4 was +0.8% Q/Q GDP +0.5% vs +0.3% expected Private consumption +0.3% vs +0.3% prelim and 0.0% in Q4 Separately, current account data for April showed a surplus of 3907B yen vs 3136B expected. Overall, this is a good report and is supportive of the yen. All eyes are on intervention today

The major European indices are closing result. German Dax -0.57% France CAC -0.23% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.05% Spain’s Ibex -0.66% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.63% As London/European traders are heading for the exits, the US stock indices remain in positive territory: Dow industrial average of 96.03 points or 0.19% at 50970 S&P index up 60.11 points

Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap reveals a strong uptick in the semiconductor sector, with standout performances from industry giants. Micron Technology (MU) surged by a substantial 8.79%, while Intel (INTC) showed impressive strength, climbing 10.78%. This recovery suggests a renewed investor confidence possibly driven by promising earnings reports or advancements in technology. Consumer cyclicals also

The AUDUSD moved sharply lower on Friday, pressured by risk-off sentiment, a broadly stronger U.S. dollar, and a deterioration in the technical picture. The selling accelerated after the pair broke below a key swing area between 0.7100 and 0.7113, and then fell beneath its 100-day moving average, a level that had held since November 2025.

After sharp declines last week, the broader U.S. stock indices are trading higher today, but the technical picture remains mixed beneath the surface. The NASDAQ indexcontinues to hold a short-term bearish bias, even with today’s rebound, while the S&P 500 has improved from the more negative posture seen at Friday’s close and is now trading

Key Takeaways from the Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) – May 2026 Employment Trends Index (ETI) fell to 107.01 in May from an upwardly revised 107.88 in April, signaling some moderation in the labor market outlook. The ETI is a leading indicator for payroll employment, meaning it is designed to provide clues about future

Trump is doing a real media tour today. Just in the past three hours, he’s spoken to Fox News, Axios and now the FT where he says: Netanyahu will have ‘no choice’ but to accept a deal with Iran “I call the shots, I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots” Iran’s

Trump on Truth Social: Israel and Iran must immediately stop “shooting.” President DONALD J. TRUMP There have been also reports that the US is assisting in intercepting Iranian missiles but not in attacks. I don’t think Iran is going to care much about the difference. I feel like this escalation is going to resolve soon

Investor confidence -13.4 vs -14.6 expected Prior -16.4 Euro area investor morale picked up more than expected heading into June, as concerns about a deep economic slowdown eased compared to the previous month. That said, the overall reading remains relatively subdued following the steep drop since April. As things stand, the mood surrounding the euro

The rollercoaster ride continues as we see oil prices move back up to start the new week today. That comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East as Iran and Israel are involved in military exchanges since the weekend. Missile strikes are keeping up even until this morning and Iran is not shying away from

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson is out with a message saying that the US is the one who is directly responsible for the recent ceasefire breaches. He also adds that Israel’s actions in attacking Iran cannot be separated from US policies, and that the latest developments are fueling further distrust in any talks with the US.

Iran has signalled that it is prepared for a prolonged confrontation with Israel and warned that US interests in the region could also come under threat. Iranian officials have increasingly linked Washington to Israeli military operations. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said the United States bears direct responsibility for Israeli actions in the region, arguing that

A light week ahead, as is usually the case following the NFP release, and while Monday has no major economic events scheduled, markets will watch for any developments related to the conflict in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Australia will release the Westpac consumer sentiment index and the U.S. will publish the ADP employment change

Fars News reports that Iran’s armed forces announced end of military operations against Israel, but warned of harsher attacks if Israel resumes attacks on Lebanon. The signals of an imminent end were already up in the air with Trump’s posts on Truth Social and now we’ve got the confirmation. This is leading to a relief

The salvo continues to start the new week. The latest headlines crossing are noting that the Israeli military had detected missiles launched from Iran toward the country. As such, their defensive systems are operating to intercept them. It is also being reported that these missiles are part of a coordinated ballistic missile launch by Iran

Japanese stock markets are getting battered today but there are better signs trickling out of the US. The Nikkei is trading down 3.5% following a 4.2% rout in the Nasdaq Composite on Friday. I’d expect to see pain around the globe today as the rest of the world plays catch up. There are some better

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold sold off on Friday as the very hot NFP gain with higher revisions for the prior months served as a wake-up call that the Fed could be forced to tighten monetary policy. The job gains have been much higher than the estimated breakeven rate lately. The unemployment rate fell to an unrounded

After Friday’s rout, Nasdaq futures fight to regain control Buyers have stepped back into Nasdaq futures after Friday’s sharp decline, but the battle for higher-value acceptance is still underway. After the gap-down open, NQ did not continue lower. Instead, buyers stepped in, pushed price back toward Friday’s close area, and then accepted higher value above

There are unconfirmed reports of 2 explosions in Saudi Arabia potentially via an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. That’s an unusually quick response so I’m skeptical. Saudi Arabia’s civil defense earlier issued an early warning but said the threat had passed in the area of Al Kharj. Impressively,

Friday was a major gut-check in markets but I don’t think it was a disaster. I’m reminded of the old adage: Bull markets go up the escalator and correct on the elevator. That means that sharp, periodic corrections are a normal part of healthy bull markets. A steady bleed lower over many days would be

Israel’s N12 reports on today’s call between Trump and Netanyahu. Trump asked Israel not to respond to the missile attack and to wait a few days to allow negotiations to continue. Netanyahu “more or less agreed” the report says. The report said Netanyahu tried during the phone call to object to Trump’s request not to

Goldman Sachs is changing its Fed call. Previously, they saw the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December and then again in March 2027. Now they see the Fed holding rates steady until cuts in June 2027 and December 2027. They cited Friday’s jobs report and still-low unemployment. The market, meanwhile, is pricing in a hike

Bitcoin futures tradeCompass update: BTC repair is real, but $64,580 is still the gatekeeper Prediction score: +2.5 / +10Bias: Mildly bullish while above $62,920, but not a clean bullish takeover unless BTC accepts above $64,580.Last updated: 02:41 Monday, 8 June 2026 (CEST) Bitcoin futures are in a mild bullish repair phase after reclaiming the $61,000

The exchange of blows certainly don’t seem to indicate that this is just a limited salvo. If anything, it reads as something that could escalate further. I guess that explains the more direct response by Iran earlier here. Iran state media is now reporting that Israeli strikes from earlier has damaged its Karoon Petrochemical plant

Iran and Yemen launch missiles towards Israel Explosions heard in Tehran and elsewhere in Iran Goldman Sachs drops call for December Fed rate cut Reports/rumors of explosions at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia Head of US equity and quant strategy at BoA sees too many red flags in stock markets Japan Q1 GDP

Savita Subramanian, Bank of America Securities head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, is warning about parallels between markets now and in Feb 2020. Energy is outperforming and has positive momentum and upward earnings revisions Tech and communications are hot but with expensive valuations Consumer staples rank dead last in returns The last one is

It was a busy weekend in the Middle East but the good news is that Trump still appears to be trying to forge a deal. He said he was unhappy that Israel had struck the southern suburbs of Beirut and Iran firing missiles at Israel. About 90 minutes ago Iran fired missiles at Israel in

Mon: Japanese GDP (Q1), German Factory Orders (Apr), US Consumer Inflation Expectations, Apple WWDC 2026 Tue: EIA STEO (Jun), South Korean GDP (Q1), UK BRC Retail Sales (May), Australian Westpac (Jun), Chinese Balance of Trade (May), German Balance of Trade (Apr), German Imports (Apr), Mexican Inflation (May), US ADP Weekly Change, Exports/Imports, Canadian Exports/Imports (Apr),

OPEC+ and OPEC continue to go through the motions with the quota meetings despite the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ announced it will raise its quota by 188K bpd for July with another meeting to come on July 5 for August production. The thing is, there are 10-13 million barrels per day shut in right now

US stocks close sharply lower. The NASDAQ index has it worse trading day since April 2025 Meta is considering raising tens of billion dollars in a stock offering Trump: Would like to see lower interest rates Baker Hughes oil rig count up 2 to 431 Gold is sinking with the US dollar rising and yields

OKLO stock lesson: a simple post-earnings VWAP check before buying the dip Key takeaways for stock investors and swing traders OKLO was already trading below its post-earnings anchored VWAP before Friday’s sharp drop. Thursday’s rally into that VWAP area was rejected, which was a warning sign. Earnings should be judged by the stock’s price reaction,

The NASDAQ led the selloff on Friday, tumbling 4.18%, with losses reaching nearly 4.5% at the session lows. The S&P 500 declined 2.65%, after being down as much as 3.0%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.35%. The catalyst was a sharp rise in Treasury yields following a stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report. Nonfarm payrolls

Coming off the back of Google’s record $85 billion equity share sale this week, Meta is now considering raising tens of billions of dollars in the equity markets as it looks to expand its move into AI The stock has moved from $610 to a new low of the day of $581.58. The price currently

The NASDAQ is now down more than 1,000 points, or -3.84%, at 25,801, with the session low reaching 25,753.93. Selling pressure accelerated following reports that Microsoft may look to tap the equity markets to help fund its expanding AI infrastructure investments, a development that has weighed on both the stock and the broader technology sector.

Will leave interest rate decision to Warsh Would like to see lower interest rates Says the country is doing well, market should go up He would not mind if Warsh were to cut interest rates. Will leave rate cut to Warsh during October meeting. What is curious is his response that will leave rate cut

The Baker Hughes rig count for the current week shows oil im inventories up 2 to 431 . Natural Gas inventories are down -1 to 124 and Total rigs are up 1 to 563. The decline in rigs has been hard since the peak above 1000 rigs back in early 2019. What is the stories

The French trade balance improved by €0.8 billion to -€5.6 billion in April, reflecting a narrowing in the overall deficit. This of course follows from the sharp declines recorded in February (-€3.5 billion) and March (-€1.3 billion). The better showing was driven by a strong increase in exports (+€1.7 billion), which outpaced the growth in

Gold is under heavy selling pressure, falling $143, or 3.2%, to $4,333. The sharp decline has pushed the price below its 200-hour moving average for the first time since October 2023, a development that shifts the near-term technical bias more firmly in favor of the sellers. The move lower also broke below the 50% retracement

The EURUSD continues to slide lower after breaking below a key support zone between 1.15768 and 1.15872. That floor had held firm since May 20, with the pair finding support within the area on four separate trading days between May 20 and May 28. The decisive break below that zone shifted the technical bias more

Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 level for the first time since early February, extending to a low of $59,743 and reaching its weakest level since October 2024. The break lower increased bearish momentum, but buyers stepped in near the lows, helping to push the price back above the $60,000 threshold. Bitcoin is currently trading around

CNN is reporting: Iran says negotiations with the U.S. have stalled, with senior adviser Mohsen Rezaei claiming President Trump must act to break the impasse. Iran is demanding the release of $24 billion in frozen assets as part of any agreement: $12 billion upon signing an interim deal. Another $12 billion at a later stage.

The USDCHF is breaking higher and gaining upside momentum as it pushes above a key resistance zone defined by the late-April and late-May swing highs between 0.7923 and 0.7926. The pair has also moved above the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the March 31 high to the May 8 low, which comes in at

It was another day where US president Trump said that a deal with Iran was “very close” and that was enough to turn the market mood around for the most part. It’s not the first time that we have seen this sort of theatric from Trump and you can bet that it won’t be the

US stock markets opened lower and have continued to sell off. The S&P 500 is down 87 points or 1.1%, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.9% and the Russell 2000 down 1.5%. Futures were already negative but the selling accelerated after today’s non-farm payrolls report. It showed the US adding 172K jobs in May compared to

An explosion near single-buoy mooring berths at Oman’s Mina al Fahal crude terminal on the Gulf of Oman has forced a suspension of oil loading, according to two people familiar with the matter. Alleged drone attack. Summary: The following is based on information from two people familiar with the matter, cited by Reuters: An explosion

Headlines: Another episode of the boy who cried wolf set to air later today? Explosion halts crude loading at Oman’s Mina al Fahal in conflict escalation America still refuses Iran’s request to unfreeze the frozen funds – Al Arabiya Semiconductors continue to struggle ahead of the Wall Street open What is the distribution of forecasts

US Energy Secretary Wright is saying that the US will add 40M barrels after the Iran conflict is over. Here’s the full picture: Current level: As of the week ending May 29, 2026, the SPR recorded a release of 8 million barrels, bringing the total down to 357.1 million barrels — the lowest level since

The employment change -17.7 K revised to xxK Employment change change 87.8K vs 10.0K estimate Unemployment rate 6.6% versus 6.9% estimate . Prior month 6.9%. Full-time employment change 154.0K versus -46.7L ;ast month. Part-time employment change -66.2Kvs. 29.0 K last month average hourly wages or permanent employees 3.2% vs 4.8% last month Employment rose among

Putin is back saying: it will be official for United States use Russia’s LNG technologies in Alaska On benefits for Russia from war in Iran: market stability is important. Oil supply decline rattles markets, we are there in OPEC plus to balance the market. We are grateful to Saudi Arabia for cooperation on global oil

The Fed’s Hammack is a hawk so her highlighting today’s jobs report isn’t a big surprise but it’s notable as a sign of which way the wind is blowing on Fed policy. She wrote: The Federal Reserve’s inflation objective is 2 percent.That number isn’t just theoretical; price stability is a foundation for businesses, consumers, and

The stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report has created an interesting tug-of-war between the White House, the market, and the Federal Reserve. President Trump wasted little time weighing in, arguing on Truth Social that a “great Jobs Report” should be bullish for stocks, not bearish, emphasizing that economic growth does not automatically translate into inflation. White House

Bitcoin is threatening to touch the lowest levels since Donald Trump’s November 2024 election. It’s down 4.5% to $60,732 today and is threatening the February spike low. A break of $60,000 would be the first time below it since September 2024. Despite everything Trump has done for crypto, bitcoin is now down 12% from the

I want With the stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report pushing Treasury yields sharply higher, the major U.S. stock indices are under pressure, with the NASDAQ leading the decline. The employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 172K versus 85K expected, while upward revisions added a net 93K jobs to the prior two months. The unemployment rate

Sector Overview The US stock market today presents a mixed tableau of performances across various sectors. The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, is under significant pressure, with major players like Nvidia (NVDA) plunging by 3.25% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) falling 6.27%. In contrast, the consumer defensive sector is showcasing resilience, with Walmart (WMT) and Costco

Q1 final GDP -0.2% vs +0.1% q/q second estimate Prior +0.2% That’s not a good look with the revision putting the overall euro area growth in the first quarter into negative territory. That marks a contraction to start the year with another set to follow this quarter amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict.

The USD is sharply higher following a much stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172K, well above the 85K forecast, while sizeable upward revisions added another 93K jobs to the prior two months. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month and 3.4% year-over-year, and the

Inflation target not in abeyance Inflation target has to be met over a period, not advisable to take action for each deviation Will be watchful if inflation getting generalised No measures under consideration to restrict capital outflows Will take measures to curb speculative trading in FX if required Assumption for crude oil at $95 per

This is a great report. Prior was +115K (revised to +179K) Two-month net revision +93K March was +185K (revised to +214K) Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.3% Unrounded unemployment 4.296% vs 4.337% prior Participation rate 61.8% vs 61.8% prior U6 underemployment rate 8.1% vs 8.2% prior Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m

USD/JPY is into the intervention danger zone following a strong non-farm payrolls report. The chart tells the story as the last time the pair traded up here in late April, the Japanese MOF came in with the hammer and knocked it down to 155.75 in short order. Anyone buying here is betting that this time

Libertex, the award-winning online trading platform, is making its third consecutive appearance at the Monaco GP this week, once again co-hosting the Ultimate Superyacht alongside luxury entrepreneur Tom Claeren. Taking place from 5–7 June aboard the 72-metre Stella Maris superyacht, anchored in the iconic Port Hercule, the event is set to be the most ambitious

IN the video above, I take a look at a technical driving the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. After the USD rose North American session erasing earlier declines and closing little changed, the Iraqis lower today with a decline of -0.37% versus the GBP and -0.28% versus the EUR. Versus the JPY, the greenback is lower

The core gap in the negotiations is the release of the frozen Iranian funds The method and mechanism for releasing the frozen Iranian funds is a gap in the negotiations Iran informed Pakistan of its acceptance to transfer part of its uranium to a third country it agrees upon America still refuses Iran’s request to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been bouncing around for the entire week on positive and negative US-Iran headlines. Yesterday’s rally came after Trump touted once again on Truth Social that a deal with Iran is in final stages. The gains were eventually faded as nothing of substance has yet been reached. The negotiating deadlock has been

Bitcoin analysis today as price gets closer to the big 60k round number: BTC loses the $61,900 POC as $60,000 comes into focus Prediction score: -5 / +10Bias: Bearish while below $61,900, but not a clean short chase into the $60,000 psychological zone As I write this, Bitcoin futures are crossing down through today’s point

The median estimate is for the headline non-farm payrolls figure to come in at 85k, with the unemployment rate to keep steady at 4.3% again. Typically, there will be a lot at stake when we get to the US jobs report. However, this time around is rather different as the Fed outlook is mired by

The data due from Japan today is unlikely to have much impact on the yen and other markets upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Explosion halts crude loading at Oman’s Mina al Fahal in conflict escalation PBOC resumes injections after two-day pause that forced banks to deploy idle cash Nasdaq analysis today shows market started selling quite hard for this time of day RBA’s Hauser due to speak, hawkish tilt expected after Harper’s inflation warning PBOC sets USD/ CNY

Nasdaq futures failed the 30244 repair and remains under pressure NQ JUN26 update: 30-minute chart, around 3:39 AM New York time Updated prediction score: -5.5 / +10Bias: Bearish while NQ remains below 30244, with swing-bear targets open only if 30016-30000 fails I wrote a few hours ago that Nasdaq is bearish with a score of

There are quite a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD layered in between 1.1575 through to 1.1650. Of the ones on the list, the expiries at 1.1600 will continue to offer the most potential impact – similar to what it has

China’s PBOC resumed liquidity injections Friday after a two-day pause, but withdrew a net 682.7bn yuan for the week, its biggest weekly cash pull in three months, in a push to force idle bank cash into the broader economy. Summary: The following draws on PBOC statements and Reuters calculations for the week ending June 6:

Bitcoin is heading for its worst week since February, down 13%, as ETF outflows hit a record 13-day streak and focus turns to Monday’s Strategy disclosure for signs of stabilisation. Summary: Bitcoin is down 13% this week, its worst performance since February Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a 13th consecutive day of net outflows, the longest

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks at a Sydney fireside chat on Australia’s economic outlook, with markets watching for any signal on the path of rates after a hawkish week for RBA rhetoric. 2.30pm Sydney time / 0430 GMT/ 0030 US Eastern time Summary: RBA Governor Bullock reaffirmed the current stance earlier this week, noting

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama regular press conference. Said prepared to respond appropriately at any time as needed on FX “On foreign exchange, we will respond appropriately at any time when necessary,” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Halifax house prices -0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.1% UK house prices dipped a little in May, with the average property price dropping to £298,806 compared with £299,251 in April. The annual growth continues to hold up by 0.5% though, reaffirming continued resilience in the market despite more challenging conditions. Halifax notes that: “Property

Goldman Sachs is staying overweight equities over 12 months and advising clients to buy pullbacks, but warns that its risk appetite indicator at a four-year high raises the probability of near-term corrections. Before we go any further, this note from GS was out prior to the strong rally on Thursday, US time. – Summary: Goldman

Japan’s real wages rose 1.9% year-on-year in April, a fourth consecutive gain, while household spending beat forecasts, boosting the case for a BOJ rate hike at its June 15-16 meeting. Summary: The following data were released by the Japanese government on June 5 Household spending, April: -0.5% year-on-year, expected -1.5%, prior -2.9%; month-on-month +1.6%, expected

Nasdaq futures tradeCompass update: NQ sells below VWAP as failed 30300 repair keeps bears in control NQ JUN26 last update: around 10:38 PM New York time Prediction score: -5 on the -10 to +10 tradeCompass scalePrimary bias right now: bearish while NQ remains below 30218-30244 Key takeaways for Nasdaq futures traders Nasdaq futures have shifted

S&P Dow Jones Indices will keep its 12-month seasoning rule and profitability requirements intact, blocking fast-track S&P 500 entry for SpaceX and other mega-cap IPOs regardless of valuation. ps … I stuck the TL;DR on this up on twitter a while back: Summary: S&P Dow Jones Indices concluded its market consultation and confirmed that existing

Iran’s foreign minister has threatened US regional bases and reasserted sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, even as Trump claims ceasefire talks are in their final stages. Summary: The following is drawn from statements by Iranian and US officials and reports from June 3-5: Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that the Strait of Hormuz falls

The U.S. dollar began the North American session on the defensive, but in today’s tightly confined trading environment, momentum and bias can shift quickly. Over the past several days, both the EURUSD and GBPUSD have been oscillating around their converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages, using those levels as key barometers for short-term direction. Meanwhile,

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 215bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. Net drain this week 682.7bn yuan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Dow industrial average closed sharply higher with a gain of 1.73%. Looking at the Dow 30 snapshot: Overall Tone: Mostly positive, with a bullish lean 22 stocks up / 8 stocks down The gainers were led by UnitedHealth (+5.18%), Goldman Sachs (+4.91%), and Merck (+4.86%) — all seeing meaningful moves Financials dominated the top

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said the organisation has seen little sign of demand destruction and is holding its 2025 oil demand growth forecast at 1.2 million barrels per day. Summary: OPEC is maintaining its 2025 oil demand growth estimate at 1.2 million barrels per day, with no revision signalled Secretary General Haitham Al

Trump: The US is in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war Putin: We are ready to make a deal with Ukraine peacefully Ukraine Zelensky to Putin: Enough of war. Ukraine proposes to end the war Fed’s Schmid: Biggest risk facing the US economy is now inflation Treas Sec Bessent: “I wish

In a letter to Russia’s Putin, Ukraine’s Zelenskiy proposed to end the war saying “Enough of war”. In a striking public letter addressed directly to Vladimir Putin, President Zelensky called for an immediate end to the war and proposed a face-to-face meeting at a neutral venue — naming Switzerland, Türkiye, and Arab states as potential

This is a new tone from Putin, it sounds like he wants the war to end: In Alaska, Trump asked Russia for some compromises, Russia is ready Ukraine also needs to compromise and the conflict will end quickly then Russia has all the resources to fulfill the military goals, and they are getting stronger Unfortunately,

Schmid is a hawk so his comments aren’t a surprise: Inflation is too high, it has been a five year fight and the Fed is still trying to figure it out Most of the higher prices people are paying for energy are staying in the US economy The big question for oil is how long

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is surging 930 points, or 1.84%, and is currently on pace for a record closing high. The rally is broad-based, with 25 of the 30 Dow components trading higher, signaling widespread buying interest rather than a narrow advance led by a handful of stocks. Financials are leading the charge. Goldman

Headlines: Trump: The US is in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war Israeli military warns that the fighting in southern Lebanon continues AI drives tech sector to cut jobs by the most since 2023 BOJ reportedly expected to raise interest rates later this month – report RBA governor Bullock: We expect

Treasury Secretary Bessent said: I wish job market had come out today Then added that he has no prior knowledge of tomorrow’s job data. Then why say that? The Trump administration, members of the Trump family, and many in Washington often appear to have access to information that can move markets, and critics argue that

Brent settled up 1.9% at $97.81 and WTI gained 2.4% to $96.02 as Iran struck Kuwait and Bahrain, US-Iran talks stalled, and crude inventories fell twice the expected amount. Earlier: JPMorgan sees Strait reopening in June but leaves the hard question unanswered Summary: Brent settled at $97.81, up 1.89%, and WTI at $96.02, up 2.41%,

Sector Overview The stock market heatmap today reveals a fascinating interplay between sectors, showcasing a resurgence in the technology domain while the energy sector experiences significant setbacks. This market snapshot provides a nuanced view of today’s winners and losers. 📈 Technology Triumphs: Despite a mixed performance in semiconductors, with Nvidia (NVDA) dipping slightly by 0.55%,

Hardware Wallet Buying Guide 2026: 5 Things Serious Traders Must Check Before Buying With crypto thefts and phishing attacks reaching new highs in 2026, self-custody is no longer optional for traders managing meaningful portfolios. Hardware wallets have become the standard — but not all hardware wallets are equal. Before you invest in one, here are

CPI +0.6% vs +0.8% y/y expected Prior +0.6% Core CPI +0.3% y/y Prior +0.3% Swiss headline annual inflation holds steady at 0.6% in May, with the monthly estimate showing a 0.2% increase in prices compared to April. The slight increase on the month was largely driven by rising housing rentals and higher prices in the

Bank of England’s Gov. Bailey is on the wires saying: Markets have been orderly but stressed at times. The debt market leverage raises questions on vulnerability. The 10 year yield in the UK rose from a low of around 4.23% on February 26 to a high of 5.20% on May 18 – a gain of

Trump on Truth Social: “Yesterday, in a meaningless vote, the House voted, 4 bad Republicans and all of the Dumocrats, to limit my War Powers, right in the middle of my final negotiations to end the War with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Who would do such an unpatriotic thing. They know where the negotiations

Prior week for initial jobless claims 209K revised to 212K. Prior week for continuing claims 1.786 million revised to 1.785M initial jobless claims come in higher at 225K vs 213K estimate and a revised 212K last week. Largest since the first week of February 4-week moving average comes in at 214.75K up from 208.25K last

The USDCAD has been trending higher this week, supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions, widening interest-rate differentials, and a weakening Canadian economic backdrop. From a fundamental perspective, the Canadian dollar initially came under pressure as tensions in the Middle East escalated after reports that both Iran and the U.S. violated the ceasefire, exchanging missile

Looking back over the last 15 trading days, most of the AUDUSD price action has been contained within a relatively well-defined range between 0.7100 and 0.7200. There were breaks below the lower boundary on May 19 and May 20, but neither move generated sustained downside momentum. Instead, buyers stepped in near the 0.7100–0.7113 support zone,

S&P 500 futures are down 24 points, or 0.3%, ahead of the open. The loss comes despite comments from President Trump saying the US is in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war. For context, Trump made the comment in a post about a House resolution (that passed) to end the war.

AI infrastructure spend on track to rival world’s largest economies, Goldman says ICYMI – Kuwait targets 70% oil output recovery within weeks of Hormuz reopening RBA governor faces Senate grilling as CBA sees rates on hold after three straight hikes Australian April Exports leap higher at +7.2% m/m (vs. -2.7% prior) ANZ commodity index rises

Construction PMI 42.4 Prior 42.1 The sharp contraction in Germany’s construction sector continues in May, as pressure continues to ramp up on both demand conditions and on the price front. New orders continued to decline at a sharp rate, albeit slightly better than in April. Of note, panellists indicated strong headwinds to demand from heightened

The sources say that the BOJ is expected to deliver an interest rate hike in June, barring any sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict that could upend markets. As the war continues to rage on, the sources add that policymakers will continue to scrutinise developments until the last minute before reaching a final decision.

Goldman Sachs estimates capex from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet will reach $5.3 trillion by 2030, more than Japan’s GDP, with total AI infrastructure spend hitting $7.6 trillion Summary: Goldman Sachs estimates combined capex from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet will reach $5.3 trillion by end-2030, surpassing the GDPs of Japan, the UK, India and

The USD is trading lower against the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD—to kick off the North American session. The EURUSD has moved higher over the last hour of trading and, in the process, climbed back above its converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages at 1.1632. The pair reached a session high of 1.1645.

Summary: Australia’s economy grew 0.3% in Q1 2026, with annual growth steady at 2.5%, driven by household consumption and data centre investment CBA forecasts growth slowing to around 1.5% by year end as household spending softens, the savings rate falls and the housing market weakens Unit labour costs eased materially, with nominal at 3.2% and

Imma never gonna sell man …. did, LOL: ICYMI! Strategy sells Bitcoin for first time since 2022, breaking “never sell” pledge Lose the bid!!! Bitcoin has lost its cool Bitcoin Futures Analysis Today: BTC Stalls Below 74,535 Saylor’s cost basis is around $75.5 per coin. Will probably try to buy more initially. Let’s see how

Dallas Fed’s Logan says monetary policy is not restraining the economy and warns higher rates may be needed later this year to return inflation to the 2% target. Summary: Logan says monetary policy is not restraining the economy, with financial conditions accommodative and corporate earnings performing strongly Inflation is trending toward the mid-2% range rather

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been printing new record highs every week since the start of April despite the prolonged US-Iran stalemate and the Strait of Hormuz closure. The market can support persistently elevated oil prices as long as the Fed maintains a neutral stance as that keeps easing financial conditions. The problem is

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been mostly rangebound for the past months with bouts of weakness on positive US-Iran headlines, and strength on negative developments. This week, the greenback has been supported by renewed tensions in the Middle East as US and Iran exchanged fire once again, with Iran even attacking US bases

Oil tumbled after positive deal comments from Trump but now we have the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon pushing back hard. Negotiations with Israel are ‘shameless’ Washington’s announcement is a ‘roadmap to annihilate part of the Lebanese people’ Ceasefire with Israel should include south of Lebanon As long as Israel is in Lebanon, the resistance

US-based employers announced 97,006 job cuts in May, up 16% from the 83,387 job cuts recorded in April. The figure is also up 3% from the 93,816 announced in the same month last year, marking the highest May total since 2020. Of note, this also marks the third straight month that job cuts have risen.

The USDCHF surged higher in trading yesterday, breaking above a key downward-sloping trendline near 0.7893 and then pushing through its 200-day moving average at 0.79066. That move marked the pair’s first break above the 200-day moving average since April 8 and gave buyers the green light to extend the rally. Momentum carried the pair above

Most traders outgrow their first broker. The beginner who opens a small account in order to learn quickly hits a ceiling on tools and guidance, and the systematic trader who needs always-on infrastructure ends up stitching together a server from one vendor, analytics from another, and a TradingView bridge from a third. Switch Markets has

A ceasefire framework was reportedly agreed upon earlier today here. But as has been the case in the past, it doesn’t seem like it will be one to last. The latest communique from Israel is that they will continue fighting in southern Lebanon. And it won’t be the first time that Israel contradicts with what

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Kuwait could restore 70% of oil output within 6-8 weeks of a Hormuz reopening, KPC said, as ADNOC warned full transit recovery may not come until mid-2027. Summary: Source: Reuters, reporting from the S&P Global Energy Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference, London, June 3 Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s managing director for international marketing said Kuwait

Societe Generale notes that while intervention threat persists, Japan has struggled to really shift the discourse in the yen outlook ever since 2022. Considering the current circumstances, the environment for a weaker yen currency looks set to persist for a bit longer. The firm also argues that while intervention from Japan’s ministry of finance may

Construction PMI 38.2 vs 40.2 expected Prior 39.7 Ouch. That’s a terrible reading as things are just getting worse for UK’s construction sector in Q2. The estimate indicates that construction output fell at its sharpest pace since May 2020. And if you discount the drop during the Covid pandemic, this marks the steepest decline in

Retail sales -0.4% vs -0.3% m/m expected Prior -0.1%; revised to +0.8% The drag in April needs to be put into a bit of context as it follows from a sharp revision higher to the March number. And that came after a positive revision to non-food retail sales in ending Q1 (from +0.6% to +1.7%).

The GBPUSD is extending to new session lows and, in the process, has slipped back below its 200-day moving average at 1.3420, a level that has become an important battleground between buyers and sellers. Over the last six trading days, the pair has traded below the 200-day moving average on all but one occasion, but

Agreement on the release of frozen Iranian funds in its final stages The main obstacle relates to the mechanism for disposing of part of the frozen Iranian funds Trump informed the mediators of his refusal to release funds to Iran before signing the agreement Proposal to create a special fund for depositing frozen Iranian funds

Inflation is still too high Will do what is considered necessary to achieve our mandate Having raised the cash rate three times, monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments We’ve already seen some signs that this tightening is starting to work Although, it will take around 1-2 years for the effects to fully

Banks warn Hormuz closure is pushing oil markets toward a supply tipping point, with HSBC flagging non-linear price spikes and JPMorgan projecting the Strait could reopen in June. Summary: JPMorgan forecasts the Strait of Hormuz could reopen in June, driven by the accelerating pace of oil inventory depletion rather than any identified diplomatic or military

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD with the larger one at the 1.1600 level in focus. The figure level has been acting as a bit of a floor for the currency pair in the past few

May ISM services index 54.5 vs 53.8 expected US May ADP employment data +122K vs +117K expected Iran foreign minister: Contact with the US has not been severed but no progress made Iran targeted a US military ship in the Gulf of Oman – report Fed’s Beige Book continues to see slight-to-moderate US growth Geopolitical

Australian April 2026 trade data, gives a trade balance of 1.791bn AUD surplus expected -1.61bn, prior -1.84bn I’ll have more to come on this separately. In brief exports or iron ore, coal and LPG strong. Imports of capital goods fell away while those fuel surged. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures settled at $96.02, gaining $2.26, or 2.41%, as buyers remained firmly in control throughout the session. Prices traded in a wide range, reaching a high of $97.00 and a low of $93.45, but the overall trend remained higher as bullish momentum continued to build. The technical foundation for today’s rally was established

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Zero 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Second day in a row. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The news: Here we go again. Israel, Lebanon agree ceasefire framework, but Hezbollah holds the key. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It feels like we’re at a tipping point in this conflict. Either both sides agree to some kind of text shortly or we’re into an escalation spiral. CNN is also out with a report saying that monetary compensation is a main sticking point. Iran wants some form of monetary compensation to be released immediately after

Israel and Lebanon have agreed a ceasefire framework under US guidance, contingent on full Hezbollah withdrawal from southern Lebanon, with comprehensive talks to resume the week of June 22. Summary: Source: US State Department statement, June 3 Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire and the creation of pilot zones in which Lebanese armed forces

Trump has privately told aides he would only end the Iran ceasefire if US troops are killed, and acknowledged the blockade could last until Labor Day, the Wall Street Journal reported. Summary: Trump privately told aides he would consider ending the ceasefire only if Iran kills American troops, suggesting he is prepared to tolerate ongoing

ABC news in the US: The House adopted a resolution to rein in President Donald Trump’s Iran war powers for the first time vote of 215-208 the resolution is symbolic in nature This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ANZ’s world commodity price index rose 0.7% in May, led by aluminium prices up 49.1% y/y after Persian Gulf production fell 35% due to Middle East conflict damage. Summary: Source: ANZ Commodity Price Index, May 2026, published June 4 The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose 0.7% m/m in May to 410.0, up 1.3% y/y,

Trump and his officials have undermined their own credibility time and time again on so many issues, so just a heads up here. Rollins says additional USDA personnel deployed to South Texas Urges livestock producers vigilance Screworm isbeing fully contained Not a harm to US food supply or safety This article was written by Eamonn

Have a look at the chart of Sandisk. This company was once a sleepy maker of solid-state drives, memory cards and flash drives. You’re likely to have an old stick drive in a cupboard somewhere or one of their insertable memory chips in an old phone or digital camera. At this time last year, it

It’s been twice now that the pair has hit 159.99 today before pulling back just a little bit. Since the second week of May, it has been one-wary traffic for USD/JPY in moving back up to near the 160.00 mark. Despite intervention from Japan’s ministry of finance, the path of least resistance remains higher for

Prior was -0.1% (revised to -0.3%) Unit labour costs +1.4% q/q, fourth consecutive gain (+3.2% y/y) Goods led the decline (-1.7%); ag/forestry cratered -8.6%, construction -2.3% Statistics Canada says business sector labour productivity fell 0.5% in Q1, the second straight quarterly drop after -0.3% in Q4. The Q4 number was revised down from -0.1% in

China’s SAIC Motor plans its first EU factory in Spain’s Galicia, with a 200 million euro initial investment, 120,000-vehicle annual capacity and an operational target of end-2028. Summary: Sources: Reuters; Xinhua SAIC Motor will build its first European Union manufacturing facility in Galicia, northwestern Spain, located between the port of Ferrol and the town of

The USDJPY has finally pushed above the psychologically important 160.00 level, reaching a session high of 160.04 and extending the bullish momentum that has been building over the last several days. The move is notable not only because of the round-number significance, but also because the area around 160.00 has repeatedly attracted attention from Japanese

The USDCAD is pushing to a new session high and, in the process, is testing an important resistance zone defined by last Thursday’s high at 1.38689. The pair has now reached 1.3869, putting buyers and sellers at a key technical crossroads. Looking at the hourly chart, 1.38689 marks the lower boundary of a swing area

Prior was -3327K Gasoline +3364K vs -513K expected Distillates +1502K vs -319K expected Refinery utilization +0.2% vs +0.3% expected API data released late yesterday: Crude -6750K Gasoline -3199K Distillates -214K WTI crude oil was up $1.10 to $94.92 ahead of the report. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin reached its 2026 low on February 4 near the $60,000 level before staging a corrective rally that peaked in mid-May at the declining 200-day moving average (green line on the chart below). However, the inability to break above that key technical barrier gave sellers the green light to reassert control, and the price has

Recent headline news has been full of different geopolitical headlines: Two rockets have been launched from southern Lebanon toward Israel. Rubio says it’s impossible to sign any agreement with Iran that does not include highly enriched uranium. Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledges that relations with China are more stable. Will see if China commits to larger

Blockchain applications are only as good as the infrastructure that supports them. A wallet needs to update balances. An exchange needs to track deposits. A DeFi platform needs data from the blockchain and trading tools need access to blockchain networks. These are the needs that blockchain node providers can meet. They let teams connect to

Trump tries again. US proposes 10% tariffs on 60 nations, forced-labour Section 301 probe Australia Q1 GDP slows to 0.3% as data centre imports drag on growth China Services PMI, May 2026 54.4 (expect 52.3, prior 52.6) fastest expansion in 3 months Australia Q1 2026 GDP 0.3% q/q and 2.5% y/y. PBOC sets USD/ CNY

Limassol, Cyprus – May 2026, easyMarkets has announced the launch of its new MT5 trading experiences, introducing three account types designed to provide traders with greater flexibility, personalised support, and access to tailored trading benefits. Launched under the campaign theme “Your Trading. Your Level.”, the new offering aims to create a more customised trading experience

The EURUSD has trended steadily lower today after finding willing sellers just ahead of its 200-hour moving average at 1.1634. The session high reached 1.1633, falling one pip short of that key technical level before rotating lower. The downside move extended into the North American session, where the pair tested an upward-sloping trendline connecting the

Iran always lies, always cheats You have to have a way to remove nuclear material We want to make sure Iran doesn’t pose a threat to Israel and America, that’s our common goal Some times we have tactical disagreements We always find a way to work out our differences We have to disarm Hezbollah and

SpaceX plans to raise $75bn (Reuters cite an unnamed source) in its IPO by selling 555.6 million shares at $135 each, implying a $1.75 trillion valuation; the roadshow begins Thursday, a source told Reuters. Summary: SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion by selling 555.6 million shares at a target price of $135 each, implying a

Services PMI 44.3 vs 42.9 prelim Prior 46.5 Composite PMI 44.9 vs 43.5 prelim Prior 47.6 Even with an improvement to the initial estimates, this is still a very poor reading for French services activity. Of note, both activity and new business levels decreased at their steepest rates in five-and-a-half years with employment conditions also

Longer war increases likelihood of second-round effects I don’t see second-round effects yet The balance of risks has clearly deteriorated ECB’s Elderson warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East increases the risk that today’s energy-driven inflation shock evolves into broader and more persistent price pressures, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will raise interest

The U.S. dollar is mostly higher but little changed overall as traders continue to navigate a slow and choppy session. In the video above, I break down the technical picture for the three major currency pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. While none of the pairs are making large moves, each is trading around key

Prior 46.9 Final Composite PMI 48.8 vs 48.6 prelim Prior 48.4 Key findings: Service sector remains in contraction in May, but expectations rebound Business activity falls for second month running, albeit at a slower pace Expectations for activity in the next 12 months rebound from April’s low Output price inflation eases despite persistent strong cost

Business activity index vs 55.9 prior Employment 47.9 vs 48.0 prior New orders 57.3 vs 53.5 prior Prices paid 71.3 vs 70.7 prior Supplier deliveries 55.2 vs 56.8 prior Inventories 62.5 vs 53.1 prior Backlog of orders 51.3 vs 53.0 prior New export orders 50.0 vs 52.1 prior Imports 51.1 vs 54.7 prior Inventory sentiment

The US proposed tariffs of at least 10% on imports from around 60 countries under a Section 301 forced-labour probe, with higher 12.5% levies targeting China, India, Japan and others. Summary: Source: Office of the US Trade Representative; reporting by financial newswires The USTR has recommended tariffs of at least 10% on imports from approximately

Prior 49.8 Composite PMI 50.4 vs 50.5 prior Key findings: Italian service providers face strongest cost pressures since start of 2023 Business activity falls for third month running New business back in contraction Rate of cost inflation hits 40-month high Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The Italian private sector continued to

Headlines: US president Trump reaffirms that Iran has agreed to not have a nuclear weapon Iran reserves right to defend against any country permitting US attacks EU says latest US tariffs on forced labour grounds are unjustified USD/JPY continues to poke and prod at intervention strike zone BOJ governor Ueda says will continue to raise

Inflation should be elevated through remainder of year Policy is in exactly the right place, there is no need to raise or lower rates I’m not that worried about persistent impacts on inflation so far Higher energy prices are driving up costs and inflation Economy should growth around 2%, job market has stabilized The job

Data for Australian economic growth in the January – March quarter of 2026. GDP 0.3% q/q expected 0.5%, prior 0.8% GDP 2.5% y/y expected 2.7%, prior 2.6% Rising rates and war impacts will bite harder in Q2. — Capital Expenditure 3.0% q/q (huge, data centres linked) prior 0.7% Final Consumption 0.3% q/q prior 0.5% This

Prior month factory orders 1.5% revised higher to 1.8% Factory orders for April 4.8% vs 4.6% estimate Durable Goods revision for April 8.0% vs 7.9% preliminary. Durable goods in March was 1.3% Durable Goods ex defense 8.1% vs 8.1% preliminary. Last month -0.3% Durable goods ex Transportation 1.1% versus 1.1% preliminary. Last month 1.1% Non

Prior was 50.9 Final April reading was 51.0 Final composite PMI 51.5 vs 51.7 prelim and 51.7 prior The ISM services survey is due at the top of the hour, alongside factory orders. Four of seven sectors expanded, down from five in April and the fewest since June 2025. Healthcare leading isn’t exactly cyclical expansion

Australia’s Q1 GDP rose 0.3% q/q and 2.5% y/y, both below forecasts, as a surge in data centre and fuel imports wiped 0.8 percentage points from growth despite strong domestic demand. Summary: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Q1 2026 National Accounts GDP rose 0.3% q/q in Q1 2026, below the 0.5% consensus and down sharply from

The USDCHF is moving higher today after closing yesterday within a key swing area between 0.7869 and 0.7878. During early trading, buyers leaned against the lower end of that zone, which also coincided with the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the April high to the May low at 0.7868. Holding that support gave buyers