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US strikes on targets at Iran’s Kharg Island have raised fears of a wider escalation China says economy off to solid start but demand remains weak Trump is weighing a seizure of Iran’s critical oil depot on Kharg Island China industrial output beats forecasts as property slump deepens Strait of Hormuz ship traffic collapses to […]

U.S. strikes on military targets at Iran’s Kharg Island have raised fears of a wider escalation that could threaten global oil supplies. Summary: The U.S. struck Iranian military facilities on Kharg Island. Trump said oil infrastructure was deliberately spared. Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s crude exports. Analysts say a direct strike could halt

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 137.3bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan and South Korea warn they are ready to act against FX volatility as yen and won slide on dollar strength tied to Middle East tensions. Summary: Japan and South Korea voiced concern over sharp depreciation in the yen and won. Officials said they stand ready to respond to excessive foreign-exchange volatility. The currencies have

Trump is pushing to form an international naval coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while weighing a potential seizure of Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub. Summary: Trump is working to assemble a multinational coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The White House hopes to announce the coalition later this week. Washington has been

U.S. and Chinese officials held what ‘sources’ described as constructive talks in Paris to stabilise trade ties ahead of a planned Trump–Xi summit in Beijing. Summary: U.S. and Chinese officials held “candid and constructive” trade talks in Paris. Discussions focused on stabilising the bilateral trade relationship. China may consider increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products.

Chinese military aircraft activity near Taiwan has surged again after an unusual two-week lull that had prompted speculation about Beijing’s intentions. Info via Politico. Summary: Taiwan detected 26 Chinese military aircraft near the island on Saturday. Sixteen aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone across multiple sectors. Seven Chinese naval vessels were also operating near

Global equity funds recorded their biggest outflows in months as oil supply fears and geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safer assets. Reuters had the round up. Summary: Global equity funds saw $7.05 billion in outflows during the week to March 11. The withdrawals were the largest since mid-December 2025. Rising oil prices and supply disruptions

Japan warned it is ready to take decisive action on currency volatility as authorities intensify monitoring of foreign exchange markets. Summary: Japan’s finance minister warned that FX markets are “extremely volatile.” Tokyo declined to comment on specific currency levels. Authorities said they are prepared to take “decisive steps” if needed. The comments follow Japan–South Korea

While there are ‘weekend markets’ these do not show wholesale participation. Only once FX begins to trade for real that wholesale flows can be spotted in major markets. This will be become more relevant as major markets begin to open in the hours ahead. Not a lot of change from late Friday so far, a

New Zealand electronic card retail spending rose in February from the previous month. The electronic card data covers around 68% of core retail sales and serves as the country’s primary monthly gauge of retail activity. Earlier: New Zealand services sector falls back into contraction in February This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. is preparing to unveil a multinational naval coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but with so many caveats at be virtually useless. Summary (check out the bolding, this is all one big conjecture, of little substance). The U.S. is preparing to announce a multinational naval coalition to escort ships through

India says diplomacy with Iran is helping reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as global powers debate military protection for the vital oil route. Summary: India says diplomacy with Iran has helped reopen shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar cited talks with Tehran that allowed two Indian LPG carriers

In markets there is often a ‘risk-off/risk-on’ dynamic around economic news. At the moment, that’s shifted to more of a war-on/war-off footing, or at least a shift in how long the war might take. This view is winning out at the moment: 1) The US tried to talk to Iran but Iran refused and is

Canada just posted its worst jobs report since the pandemic. The 83,900 jobs losses were the worst in a month since 2022 and — worse yet, there were 108K full-time jobs lost. That’s led to a slump in the Canadian dollar and boosted USD/CAD by 90 pips to 1.3728. That’s the highest for the pair

The latest NBC poll shows Trump’s approval among registered voters down 3 points to 44% from 47% in March 2025, with disapproval climbing to 54%. The DDHQ polling average paints a similar picture at 43.1/54.4. What matters for markets here is the midterm setup. Trump himself is flagging the risk, noting the historical pattern of

Trump on Iran: Going to be hitting them very hard over the next week Trump claimed Iran was “about to surrender” a day before the Supreme Leader vowed to fight How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? Why the US dollar is skyrocketing if rate hike bets increase for other central banks?

GBPUSD breaks lower as sellers regain momentum The GBPUSD is once again pushing lower and trading to new session lows, extending the bearish momentum seen earlier in the day. The pair had already broken below the previous low for the year at 1.3252, but the initial move lacked follow-through and briefly corrected higher. That corrective

USDCAD extends trend-like rally toward key resistance The USDCAD has been trending steadily higher since midday yesterday, with the pair staging a strong, trend-like move to the upside. The rally began near 1.3575 and has extended to a session high of 1.3715 in trading today. The advance has unfolded in a clear three-leg structure, with

The USD made new highs vs the EUR, JPY and GBP for the year today, but is seeing some corrective action ahead of the dump of data today. At 8:30 AM ET: PCE is expected to rise by 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY. The core is expected at 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY (vs 3.0%

Prior -24.8K Unemployment rate: 6.7% vs 6.6% expected Prior 6.5% Full-time employment change: -108.4K vs +44.9k last month Part-time employment change: +24.5K vs -69.7K last month Participation rate: 64.9% vs 65.0% last month Average hourly wages (permanent, YoY): 4.2% vs 3.3% last month This is an awful jobs report. The Canadian dollar is selling off

A Reuters poll shows economists expect the RBA to raise rates to 4.10% in March and potentially to 4.35% later this year. Summary: 23 of 30 economists expect the RBA to raise the cash rate to 4.10% on March 17. The forecast marks a shift from February’s poll, which expected rates to remain at 3.85%.

EURUSD falls to new 2026 lows before corrective bounce The EURUSD moved sharply lower earlier in the day, extending its bearish momentum and breaking to new lows for 2026. In the process, the pair also traded to its lowest level since August 2025, highlighting the continued downside pressure in the currency pair. The move lower

Mexico’s President said she helped to broker talks between the US and Cuba that are now confirmed. Various reports said the talks have started and today Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed his government is holding talks with the Trump administration. “These conversations have been aimed at seeking solutions through dialogue to the bilateral differences that

There is one report floating around and it suggests that Marco Rubio reached out to Iran’s leaders this week to open talks on a ceasefire. Iran didn’t even answer. Then the US went through France to try to open up talks and Iran said its goals weren’t achieved yet. What are the goals? A longer-term

Prior +0.1% GDP +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y expected Prior +0.7% The more detailed breakdown as per the following: Services +0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.3% (revised to +0.2%) Industrial output -0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior -0.9% Manufacturing output +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior -0.5% Construction output +0.2% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior

Consumer sentiment preliminary for March 55.5 vs 55.0 estimate. Weakest cents December of last year. prior month 56.6. Current conditions 57.8 vs 56.6 prior month Expectations 54.1 vs 56.6 prior month. Weakest since November of last year. 1 year inflation expectations 3.4% vs 3.4% prior month 5 year inflation expectations 3.2% vs 3.3% prior month

The USDJPY continues to extend to the upside, supported by a combination of higher oil prices and rising U.S. yields. Crude oil settled the day up $8.48, or 9.72%, while U.S. Treasury yields also moved higher, with the 10-year yield at 4.257%, up 5.1 basis points. The rise in yields is helping to underpin the

📈 Technology Sector: A Forward Momentum The tech sector is surging today with an overall positive momentum. Leading the charge, Micron Technology (MU) has seen an impressive rise of 4.77%, while Nvidia (NVDA) increased by 0.56%. This upswing in the semiconductor space reflects growing investor confidence and optimism surrounding technological advancements. 🚀 Communication Services: Riding

Economists at Barclays now see the Fed cutting rates in September of this year and March 2027. Previously, they saw a cut in June of this year and another in September. This shift tracks market pricing, which has shifted substantially since the Iran war and resulting oil price spike. Market pricing now sees just 22.5

The WSJ reports that the US is moving additional warships to the Middle East, citing three US officials. It says that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for an element of an amphibious ready group and attached Marine expeditionary unit. Such

Japan trade minister Akazawa: Will continue to discuss Japan’s allocation and timing of IEA-led coordinated oil reserves release Japanese government, together with private sector operators, will make utmost efforts in securing alternative sources of crude oil. Japanese companies are exploring alternative sources for crude oil procurement, including U.S., Central Asia, and South America This article

Asia’s heavy reliance on medium-sour Gulf crude is making disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz difficult to replace quickly. Summary: Many Asian refineries are configured for medium-sour Gulf crude. Asia imports around 60% of its oil from the Middle East. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are slowing tanker flows. Substituting U.S., African or Brazilian

Trump reportedly told G7 leaders during a virtual summit on Wednesday that Iran was on the verge of a total military and political collapse. According to a report by Axios, which cited three officials from G7 countries briefed on the call, Trump expressed supreme confidence in the outcome of the ongoing conflict, stating that the

We are deep into the improvisation phase of the war with Iran. Donald Trump told The Brian Kilmeade Show he will know the Iran conflict is over “when I feel it in my bones.” On a somewhat more-concrete note, he suggested it may not last much longer. The market doesn’t appear to be shifting in

A handful of pipelines can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but their combined capacity falls far short of replacing the massive volumes of oil normally shipped through the critical Gulf chokepoint. Summary: The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil consumption. A limited number of pipelines allow exporters to bypass the chokepoint. Saudi

Prior month 6.542M revised to 6.550M JOLTs Job openings for January 6.946MM vs 6.700 M estimate. Hires 5.294M vs 5.272M prior (revised) Separations 5.105M vs 5.203M prior (revised) Quits 3.137M vs 3.225M prior (revised) Layoffs and discharges 1.631M vs 1.666M (revised) For 2025 what did the numbers do? Job openings: Annual average 7.1 million in

EUR/USD 1.1700 (EUR 2.89 bn) 1.1600 (EUR 1.00 bn) 1.1500 (EUR 866.36 mn) 1.1400 (EUR 580.00 mn) USD/JPY 160.00 (US$ 464.89 mn) 159.00 (US$ 495.28 mn) 158.50 (US$ 406.68 mn) GBP/USD 1.3450 (GBP 299.62 mn) 1.3300 (GBP 150.00 mn) USD/CHF 0.7780 (US$ 299.10 mn) 0.7700 (US$ 534.13 mn) USD/CAD 1.3835 (US$ 470.70 mn) 1.3700 (US$

US equity futures are flirting with the best levels of the pre-market following a wave of economic data that points to rate cuts if/when the US or Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Notable in the pre-market news was a report saying that Trump told other world leaders earlier this week that he expected Iran

US initial claims 213K vs 215K estimate US January trade balance -54.5B vs -66.6B expected US housing starts for January 1.487M versus 1.348M estimate Israel may launch a ground campaign in Lebanon imminently Netanayu: Iran is no longer the same Iran U.S. Treasury sells $22 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of

EUR/USD 1.1700 – €2.3bn 1.1670 – €1.8bn 1.1600 – €1.4bn USD/JPY 156.00 – $1.01bn AUD/USD 0.7100 – A$896m 0.7000 – A$853m 0.7130 – A$839m GBP/USD 1.3300 – £450m 1.3350 – £409m USD/CAD 1.3835 – $471m 1.3840 – $300m NZD/USD 0.5790 – NZ$310m 0.6200 – NZ$300m Market context:EUR/USD 1.1670–1.1700 and AUD/USD 0.71 could act as short-term

The USDCHF moved to its highest level since January 23 earlier in the session as the U.S. dollar attracted buying interest. Since that high, the pair has retraced part of the advance, but it continues to hold a gain of about 0.19% on the day, keeping the bullish tone intact for now. Key support tested

Prior was +2.9% PCE M/M +% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.4% Core PCE Y/Y +% vs +3.1% expected Prior +3.0% Core PCE M/M +% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.4% Consumer spending and income for January: Personal income % vs +0.5% expected Prior +0.3% Personal spending % vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.3% Real personal spending %

Prior estimate 1.4% GDP 2nd estimate 0.7% versus 1.4% preliminary. This is well below the expectations going into the 1st cut of the GDP (was expecting 3.0%). GDP Deflator 3.8% vs 3.6% est. and 3.7% preliminary Core PCE 2.7% versus 2.7% estimate and 2.7% preliminary GDP sales preliminary 0.4% versus 1.2% preliminary. Consumer spending 2.0%

On US escorts in Strait of Hormuz: We would do it if we needed to Hopefully, things are going to go very well We’re going to see what happens Trump is clearly vowing to escalate the war further here which should keep the markets in defensive mode, especially heading into the weekend. Oil made headlines

Prior +0.3% HICP +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim Prior +0.4% The HICP is the more important measure as that’s what the ECB targets. The final figure matches the preliminary estimate, so there’s nothing to see here. The data hasn’t been much of importance for the market anyway as the focus remains on the US-Iran war

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower today as a surge in oil prices—up roughly 8% on the day—sparked renewed concerns about inflation, economic growth, and rising input costs across large parts of the economy. The spike in crude came amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fears of potential disruptions to global supply routes.

Japan warns on oil price impact, signals FX action as USD/JPY nears 160 ICYMI – Tesla wins UK licence to supply electricity to households US, EU and Japan advance critical minerals trade deal with price floor plan Poor US decision-making process underestimated Iran’s willingness to disrupt Hormuz PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today

The US dollar started the week on a negative note as the record jump in oil prices got unwound on G7 discussions about emergency oil reserves release and then on Trump’s comment to CBS suggesting that the war could be over soon. The relief rally in risk weighed on the greenback as rate cut bets

Prior +2.3% HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y prior No changes to the preliminary estimates here. As mentioned for the French CPI, the data hasn’t been much of importance for the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the disruption in the Strait of

Iran’s UN envoy, comments reported via Reuters: We are not going to close Strait of Hormuz but it is our right to preserve ‘peace and security’ in the waterway Oil implications (should be a headwind, a welcome one!) more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data from NZ only, unlikely to move markets noticeably upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia will release up to 762 million litres of fuel from reserves after easing stockholding rules to counter supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Summary: Australia will release up to 762 million litres of petrol and diesel from domestic reserves. The government is cutting minimum fuel stockholding obligations by up to 20%. The measure

ICYMI – Tesla receives UK licence to supply electricity to homes, expanding its push into retail energy. Summary: Tesla Energy Ventures has been granted a UK electricity supply licence by regulator Ofgem. The move allows Tesla to sell electricity directly to British households. Tesla aims to combine solar generation, battery storage and energy retail services.

Japan’s finance minister warns high oil prices are hitting markets and signals readiness to act in FX as USD/JPY nears intervention levels. Summary: Japan Finance Minister Seiko Katayama warned high oil prices are impacting financial markets. She said the government will take all possible measures to mitigate the impact. Katayama signalled readiness to act in

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Treasury grants one-month window to sell Russian oil cargoes already loaded before new sanctions. Summary: U.S. Treasury issued a new Russia-related general license. License allows sale of Russian crude and petroleum products already loaded as of March 12. Transactions can continue until 12:01 a.m. ET on April 11. Measure provides a wind-down period for

The EURUSD is trading near the lows for the day, the week, and the year as the session moves toward the close. The selling pressure has pushed the pair close to a key technical level that, if broken, would take the price to its lowest level since November. The low for today reached 1.1511, while

Israeli officials see Iran’s regime holding firm for now, shifting focus toward weakening Tehran’s military rather than expecting imminent political collapse. Info via the Wall Street Journal (gated) Summary: Israeli officials assess Iran’s regime is unlikely to collapse in the near term despite military pressure. Security forces maintain strong control over streets, discouraging protests and

Reports from the Israeli Broadcasting Authority indicate the Security Cabinet is convening this evening to debate a significant expansion of ground operations in Lebanon. The move follows a week of intensifying friction that saw Israel nearly double its evacuation zones in southern Lebanon, now covering roughly 10% of the country’s territory. With Defense Minister Israel

Iran appears to be preparing a ground invasion in Lebanon to fight Hezbollah. Is it possible they want to tone things down with Iran before embarking on it? Comments from Netanyahu in his first press conference since the war: Iran is no longer the same Iran Dealing heavy blows to Iran’s revolutionary guard Speak with

USD/JPY is up 45 pips to a session high at 159.39. The energy crisis is potentially disasterous for the Japanese economy as it imports virutally all of its energy needs. Remember that it’s not just oil that’s being blockaded in the Strait of Hormuz but natural gas as well, which of it heading to Asia.

Sector Overview: Spotting the Market Movers The stock market is experiencing mixed trends today, with notable sectoral shifts highlighted on the heatmap. While technology and healthcare are seeing significant declines, the energy sector is standing out with positive gains. 📉 Technology: Major tech stocks are under pressure. Semiconductor giants like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD)

There was a time when a $65 drop in gold was blockbuster news for the precious metals market, now it’s the usual daily volatility. That’s in part because the market is more lively but it mostly reflects the law of big numbers in that at $5108, a $65 is just a 1.2% decline. Zooming out,

The U.S. has launched sweeping Section 301 probes into manufacturing overcapacity across 16 trading partners, opening the door to a new wave of tariffs. Summary: The U.S. has launched a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners over excess manufacturing capacity. Targeted economies include China, the EU, Japan, India, Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan. The probe

Summary: Oracle is reportedly preparing layoffs that could reach as many as 45,000 employees, above the confirmed 20,000–30,000 range. Much of the restructuring is tied to AI automation within Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. AI agents have reportedly been managing database administration tasks for several months. One internal example saw 47 database administrators replaced by three senior

Prior was -1.30B Exports 62.48B vs 65.55B prior Imports 66.13B vs 66.85B prior Canada’s merchandise exports decreased 4.7%, while imports were down 1.1%. The 4.7% decline is the largest percentage decline since April 2025. Exports of motor vehicles and parts fell 21.2% to $5.4 billion in January, the lowest level since September 2021. Changes in

Summary: Drone strikes reportedly linked to Iran triggered fires at Oman’s Mina petroleum facility near Salalah. Authorities evacuated all vessels from the Mina Al Fahal oil export terminal as a precaution. The terminal handles roughly 1 million barrels per day of Omani crude exports. Mina Al Fahal is strategically located outside the Strait of Hormuz,

US stocks increasingly look like the want to go down and test Monday’s lows. The S&P 500 is down 95 points, or 1.3%, to 6690, which still leaves about 50 points of breathing room before we hit the March 9 low. There is a clear inverse correlation between oil and stock markets right now that’s

Comments from Iranian officials appear to be sending mixed signals, but the latest remarks suggest some effort to ease concerns about a full disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that many ships can still pass through the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with the Iranian Navy.

High-yield 4.871% WI level at the time of the auction 4.878% Tail -0.7 basis points versus 6 month average of +0.2 basis points bid to cover 2.45X versus 6 month average of 2.39% Dealer 9.45% versus 6 month average of 11.3% Directs 27.2% versus 6 month average of 23.2% Indirects 63.4% vs 6 month average

European equities finished the session broadly lower, with Spain’s Ibex leading the declines. The selling pressure was fairly widespread across the region as risk sentiment remained cautious. Despite the drop today, the weekly picture remains mixed with some indices still holding gains for the week heading into the final trading day. European closing levels (today):

The The USDCAD is pressing higher in North American trading and once again testing a key topside ceiling that has capped the pair all week. That resistance zone has become increasingly well defined, which makes the current test especially important from a technical perspective. Looking back over the week, the high price on Monday reached

Summary: Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals from its North Haven Private Income Fund after redemption requests reached nearly 11% of shares outstanding. The fund returned about $169 million, or 45.8% of tender requests, due to quarterly redemption caps. Investor scrutiny is increasing across the $2 trillion private credit market. JPMorgan has marked down loans used as

Bitcoin CME futures are trying to stabilize above the $70,000 area, and the latest order-flow picture suggests buyers have improved their footing in the short term. The move is constructive, but the broader structure still looks more like a recovery phase than a fully established bullish expansion. The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a period

Prior was -72.9B Goods trade -80.8B vs -98.54B The deficit came in at $54.5B compared to $72.9B in December (revised), a swing of $18.4 billion. The consensus was looking for $66.6B so this is a meaningful miss on the deficit side — which is to say, a positive surprise for GDP math. The single biggest

The report says that the Chinese government has effectively banned refined fuel exports for the month of March “with immediate effect”. That as Beijing has ordered refiners to stop such exports for the month. All of this of course is to manage the situation back home, amid fears of domestic fuel shortages due to the

The price of Bitcoin continues to trade within a defined range, mostly bounded between $62,696 and $71,775. There have been a couple of brief extremes outside that range, including a dip to $59,930 in early February that lasted only a few hours, and a short-lived spike to $73,739 that held for roughly 15 hours. Overall,

On both Tuesday and Wednesday, the NASDAQ index stalled right against the 200-hour moving average. That moving average also aligned closely with a downward-sloping trendline, which defines the upper boundary of a trading channel. The index has been trading within this channel since February 5, with multiple tests of both the upper resistance zone and

Iran operations to take weeks, not months Navy escort will happen relatively soon Escorts can’t happen now Hormuz tanker escort likely by the end of the month You will see US working with other countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz Short term disruption is needed for long term security Russia is not getting sanctions

In the opening days of the Iran war, there was something of a shock in markets but then markets settled into the idea that it would be a temporary disruption, with oil prices retreating afterwards. That was exactly what Trump said as he outlined a 4-5 week timeline, and affirmed when he later said the

A container ship near the UAE was hit by an unidentified projectile causing a small fire, adding to rising maritime security incidents in Gulf shipping lanes. Summary: A container ship was struck by an unknown projectile 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali in the UAE. The strike caused a small onboard fire. All crew

Prior month housing starts 1.387M Housing starts for January 1.487M vs 1.348M last month Building permits 1.376M vs 1.410M estimate Prior month 1.455M Housing Completions for January: Housing completions (Jan): 1.527M annual rate, +4.8% vs Dec (1.457M) YoY comparison: -7.5% vs Jan 2025 (1.651M) Single-family completions: 970K, -1.0% vs Dec (980K) Multifamily (5+ units): 532K

The AUDUSD is moving lower today as risk-off sentiment spreads across global markets. U.S. stocks and global equities are pushing lower, while oil prices are surging—currently up roughly 8.8% on the day. In that environment, the U.S. dollar is gaining across the board against the major currencies, with the AUDUSD leading the declines, down about

The USD is trading in a mixed and mostly range-bound fashion to start the North American session. The dollar is firmer against the EUR and GBP, with EURUSD and GBPUSD edging lower, while the greenback is softer against the JPY after pushing toward 2026 highs earlier and finding willing sellers on the test. In the

WTI crude oil is now up 10% and has risen above the highs from Asian trading. Britain’s Defence Secretary says “it’s clear Iran is likely laying mines” in the Strait of Hormuz. That’s an odd phrasing that indicates both clarity and uncertainty. I guess we won’t really know if there are mines until: 1) Iran

Trump considers invoking emergency powers to revive offshore oil production in California as the Iran conflict pushes crude prices higher. Summary: President Trump is preparing to invoke the Defense Production Act to revive offshore oil production in southern California. The move would ease permitting and potentially override some state restrictions. Houston-based Sable Offshore Corp. is

Prior was 213K (revised to 214K) initial jobless claims 213K vs vs 215K est 4 week moving average 212K vs 216K last week Continuing claims 1.850M vs 1.850M expected Prior 1.868M revised to 1.871M Steady. No Hire. No Fire – at least in this series. WHAT DO JOBLESS CLAIMS MEASURE? The US Jobless Claims indicator

Trump yesterday told tanker operators to “show some guts” and sail through the Strait of Hormuz. A US-owned and Greek-owned tanker decided to try and they were hit by explosive RC boats and are now in flames. That has renewed talk about naval escorts through the strait but France said yesterday and it will take

An oil tanker near Iraq’s Umm Qasr port erupted in flames, with preliminary reports pointing to a possible direct attack on the vessel. Some reports say its multiple tankers on fire. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

India’s inflation rate increases to 3.2% in February, slightly above consensus India reportedly sees first oil vessel reach its port since the US-Iran conflict started US futures step with caution as Middle East conflict drags on The S&P 500 bias turns bearish again as traders don’t buy Trump’s jawboning anymore GBPUSD rejects a major trendline

Says oil will be coming down Says the US has hit 28 mine ships They’ve hit Iran’s leadership twice We’ve heard all this before, just announce the end already. Try to make some kind of peace deal where ships can get through. At the end of the day, what will this have really accomplished? Forcing

Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to raise rates in March and May as rising energy prices and strong domestic data keep inflation risks elevated. Earlier: ANZ joins banks expecting March 17 RBA rate hike as oil shock lifts inflation risks Westpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and

Summary: Two oil tankers were attacked in the northern Gulf near Iraq and Kuwait. One vessel near Umm Qasr caught fire following what appears to be a deliberate strike. A second tanker off Kuwait suffered an explosion and onboard fire. Early reports suggest the use of explosive drones or unmanned boats. The incidents highlight rising

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The closest one that could factor into play are the ones for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. That being said, the fact remains that there is a bigger influence on price action currently. And that is oil

Australia is temporarily allowing higher sulphur fuel imports to safeguard supply as its heavy reliance on imported petroleum leaves the country exposed to global energy disruptions. Summary: Australia is temporarily allowing higher sulphur fuel imports to ensure adequate supply. The policy allows fuel from more global refineries to enter the market during disruptions. Australia imports

Container ship hit by projectile near UAE port of Jebel Ali Australia allows higher sulphur fuel imports to protect supply security Drone strikes hit Oman energy facility, vessels evacuate Mina Al Fahal terminal Fitch warns rising local government debt could narrow China’s fiscal headroom Reuters says that Global shipper CMA CGM resumes bookings from Gulf

BoJ Governor Ueda warns currency weakness could intensify inflation risks as higher oil prices and a weaker yen threaten to fuel cost-push inflation in Japan. Summary: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that foreign exchange movements are increasingly influencing inflation. He said the yen’s impact on prices is larger than in the past, potentially

Expectations for an RBA rate hike on March 17 are strengthening as oil-driven inflation risks grow and major banks including ANZ join forecasts for tighter policy. Summary: RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that oil price shocks tied to the Iran conflict pose upside risks to inflation. He said there will be “genuine policy debate”

Iran said the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel. Its forces hit merchant shipping / oil tankers: Reports of tanker attack in southern Iraq Oil price leaps higher on news of 2 tankers attacked in the Gulf The oil tanker attacks were carried out by Iranian boats laden with explosives. At

The U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the SPR as part of a global stockpile drawdown. Separately, intelligence assessments indicate Iran’s government remains stable despite weeks of bombardment. Summary: The U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The move is part of a 400 million barrel coordinated release by the

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 24.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK housing demand weakened in February as geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices raised fears mortgage rates could remain elevated. Summary: The RICS house price balance fell to -12 in February, weaker than January’s -10 and the -9 expected by economists. The survey indicates more respondents reporting falling prices than rising ones. New buyer enquiries

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation for March 2025 rise to 5.2% from 5% in February. RBA looks locked and loaded: Australian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next week Westpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and May RBA meet next week: This article

G7 leaders weigh ship escorts in the Gulf and coordinate with regional partners as Middle East tensions threaten energy markets and trade routes. Gotta wonder why this needs to be done if this is true: Trump suggests there’s “practically nothing left” to target in Iran, war will end soon Anyway … summary: G7 leaders reaffirm

Reuters is reporting that CMA CGM has reopened container bookings from major Gulf export hubs, signalling improving conditions for regional shipping after recent disruptions. This is good news if correct. Recent attacks suggest this may be premature: Oil price rocketing higher as attacks on tankers by Iran escalate. US stocks dropping. Oil price leaps higher

Prior was -95.0B Last Feb was -137B The fiscal year-to-date deficit is $1.004 trillion vs $1.147 trillion a year earlier Outlays $621B vs $603B a year earlier Receipts $313B vs $296B a year earlier Net customs receipts of $26.59B When you factor in the tariff refunds that are coming, the deficit is on track to

China is expected to maintain targeted fiscal support for local governments as rising debt and weak revenues tighten fiscal headroom, Fitch says. Summary: Fitch Ratings expects China to maintain targeted fiscal support for local and regional governments (LRGs). LRGs are provincial and municipal governments responsible for infrastructure spending and regional development. Weak revenue growth and

USD/JPY is creeping closer to major resistance after a jump today. It’s up 89 pips to 158.95 as the market senses a longer (or at least uncertain) timeline for the war in Iran. Trump continues to say he could end the war soon but the IEA and its members today announced the release of emergency

The GBPUSD price action today for resistance near a downward sloping trendline, and on the downside, he found support against a cluster of moving averages. The trendline came in near 1.3456. The moving averages are between 1.3382 and 1.3395. The high price today reached 1.3457 and the low price was at 1.3394. Trading successfully can

This is from Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian: Talking to leaders of Russia and Pakistan, I reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region. The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression. Those are certainly some aspirational

The USDJPY has moved higher, supported by rising US yields and a more bullish technical backdrop. Earlier in the session, the pair found solid support during the early European trading hours when the price stalled against the rising 100-hour moving average. Holding that level reinforced its importance as a key support point. The moving average

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices stabilized in the $80–90 range this week as G7 countries began discussing the possibility of releasing emergency oil reserves to ease pressure on the market. If it happens, the release would be the largest in history. For now, the mere discussion seems to be capping the upside, but no concrete action

It was reported earlier today that this was coming so it’s not a surprise at this point but it’s still a big step and the details are key. In any case, this will be the largest coordinated strategic reserve release in the agency’s history, more than double the 182.7 million barrels unleashed during Russia’s 2022

Iran has threatened to strike the US west coast with offensive drones in retaliation for American military operations, according to an FBI warning issued to California police departments. This is an ABC News report and it reads to me like the kind of standard thing that police dept’s would send out at a time like

Market Insights: Tech gains momentum as utilities and financials lag behind 🏦 Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap reveals a mixed performance landscape, with the technology sector standing out amid broader market challenges. Semiconductors are demonstrating notable strength, while utilities and financials endure weaknesses. Technology Surge: A sparkling performance in the semiconductor sector, led by Intel

Spain has been bad, may cut off trade Spain’s leadership is not so good On Iran: Not worried about any Iran-backed attacks on US soil Just spoke with leaders of various countries (this would have been on the IEA oil reserves call) On Iran, Trump asserts: “We’re not finished yet.” Trump said he didn’t believe

High-yield. 4.217% WI level at the time of the auction 4.210% Tail 0.7 basis points versus 6 month average of 0.3 basis points Bid to cover 2.45X versus 6 month average of 2.48X 6 month average of Directs 12.8% vs 6 month average of 20.3% Indirects 74.5% versus 6 month average of 69.3% Dealers 12.7%

Dive right into my Nasdaq technical analysis video from today (11 March, 2026) The recent market action from investingLive.com suggests that while the “bearish tilt” felt heavy for a moment, the bulls might just be pulling a classic “fakie” recovery. Here is the fun recap of what went down: 1. Oracle’s Cloud Nine Moment While

Today’s CPI report was bang in-line with estimates so that gives the Fed breathing room to wait and see what happens with prices. What’s complicating that is the spike in crude oil due to the Iran war. WTI continues to bounce around and is up $1.52 to $84.90 today after rising as high as $89.

US President Trump said tanker crews should “show some guts” and sail through the Strait of Hormuz. But overnight, an Iranian drone boat hit the cargo vessel Mayuree Naree Bangkok. Twenty sailors were evacuated but three are reportly still missing, perhaps trapped in the engine room. The timeline of “a few weeks” set out by

Saudi Arabia sharply increased oil production in February before the Iran war, as part of a ‘contingency’ plan ahead of strikes. Production in the oil superpower rose to 10.882 million barrels per day compared to 10.10 mbpd in January. That boosted overall OPEC+ crude output to 42.72 mbpd, up 445,000 barrels per day. A statement

The AUDUSD is charging toward new daily highs, decisively extending its rally beyond the February 12 peak of 0.7146. The pair recently touched 0.7189 following news that the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves—a massive move aimed at stabilizing global prices amid anxieties surrounding the Iranian conflict.

Axios spoke with Trump “Any time I want it to end, it will end,” Trump said during the five-minute call with Axios. “The war is going great. We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period,” Trump told Axios. This is the

U.S. stocks are trading marginally higher at the start of the North American session, while bond yields and crude oil prices are also edging higher as markets position ahead of key inflation data. At 8:30 AM ET, the market will get the latest reading on U.S. CPI, one of the most closely watched inflation indicators.

The NASDAQ index moved higher earlier in today’s trading, climbing to a session high of 22,906. At that level, the price was testing the falling 200-hour moving average, a key technical resistance level. Sellers leaned against that moving average, and the failure to break above it reinforced the level as an important risk and bias-defining

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Monday after Trump told CBS that “the war could be over soon.” Traders unwound some of their positions as expectations of a quick resolution led to a repricing of hawkish interest-rate bets, putting pressure on the greenback. The dollar extended those losses yesterday as

A week after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, markets started to realize the conflict might drag on. On Monday morning, Brent crude briefly jumped above $113 per barrel, while S&P 500 futures opened deep in the red. The picture wasn’t much brighter elsewhere either — European and Asian stocks also suffered. The

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Monday after Trump told CBS that “the war could be over soon.” Traders unwound some of their positions as expectations of a quick resolution led to a repricing of hawkish interest-rate bets, putting pressure on the greenback. The dollar extended those losses yesterday as

The survey sees all 64 economists anticipating that the BOJ will keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% next week. Meanwhile, roughly 60% (37 out of 62 economists) see the Japanese central bank making a move to raise the policy rate to 1.00% by end-June. That is not too much changed from the ~58% in

Prior was +3475K Gasoline -3654K vs -2649K expected Distillates -1349K vs -692K expected Refinery utilization +1.6% vs +0.3% expected The private oil data released late yesterday: Crude -1700K Gasoline -1800K Distillates -2300K The production estimate showed the US off by 18K bpd. This report has been very volatile this year and I suspect that’s due

The breakdown will see Japan release 15 days worth of private sector oil reserves and one-month worth of state oil reserves. At the same time, Takaichi has also called on measures to curb gasoline prices at ¥170 per litre on average. For some context, Japan has a massive buffer of around 254 days’ worth of

G7 leaders will hold emergency talks later Wednesday on energy coordination as Middle East tensions push oil prices higher. Summary: French President Emmanuel Macron will host a video call of G7 leaders on Wednesday to discuss energy market impacts from Middle East tensions. The meeting is scheduled for 1400 GMT, according to the Elysee. Leaders

The initial market reaction has been fairly muted. U.S. stocks are modestly lower, Treasury yields are edging higher, and the USD is firmer, but the overall moves remain relatively limited. Looking at the equity market, futures are pointing to a softer open, with the Dow down about 150 points, the S&P 500 lower by roughly

Headlines: Oil prices creep back up after Washington fiasco, what’s next? IEA reportedly to announce recommendation on strategic oil reserve release at 1300 GMT G7 energy ministers reaffirm support of using oil reserves Japan set to release part of oil reserves from private sector and also state stockpile What is the distribution of forecasts for

The USDCAD has established a clear trading range this week, carving out a high of 1.3606 and a low of 1.3524 during Monday’s session. Since that initial volatility, the pair has tightened into a “coil” pattern, printing a series of lower highs and higher lows through Tuesday and into today’s trade. While the price recently

Headlines: Oil prices creep back up after Washington fiasco, what’s next? IEA reportedly to announce recommendation on strategic oil reserve release at 1300 GMT G7 energy ministers reaffirm support of using oil reserves Japan set to release part of oil reserves from private sector and also state stockpile What is the distribution of forecasts for

The roller coaster ride continues on the week, with oil prices now starting to nudge back higher today. There was much drama and a real mess yesterday amid conflicting headlines. As the US tries to play down the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, we started to see some underhanded tactics come out. The headlines:

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

We must remain calm amid Iran crisis The conflict has raised uncertainty Likely to see slightly higher inflation, less growth due to the conflict But inflation in France will remain low, don’t see stagflation happening Do not expect a rate hike at the ECB meeting next week Meanwhile, we’re also hearing from ECB policymaker Nagel

Questions over whether Prime Minister Takaichi sought to influence BOJ policy have renewed debate about political pressure on Japan’s central bank. Reuters (may be gated) carried the info ICYMI. Summary: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stance on monetary policy came under scrutiny in parliament. An opposition lawmaker questioned whether she pressed the Bank of Japan

Well, it’s not a surprise given that the G7 leaders’ meeting is lined up right after. It is a mere formality now as they look to just finalise the details and nuances in getting this done. The Reuters headline is saying that the IEA will announce its recommendation at 1300 GMT on releasing oil from

Oil prices are rising once again after a CNN report said Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. “Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on

U.S. forces struck Iranian mine-laying vessels as Trump warned Tehran against attempts to mine the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Summary: The U.S. military said it eliminated 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump warned Iran to remove any mines immediately or face military consequences. Trump said the U.S. would use

Hauser’s hawkish inflation warnings have pushed markets toward expecting a possible RBA rate hike as soon as the March meeting. RBA policymaker Hauser says oil price and Middle East volatility is a “genuine challenge” ICYMI: RBA’s Hauser warns oil price risks could intensify rate rise debate (March 17 live) Summary: RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser

The ECB is still in good place We will be ready to act if needed There’s no reason to act at the next meeting I have no reservations to hike without new forecasts Upside inflation risks clearly dominate A rate hike on Iran may be closer than thought The euro caught a bid on that

Japan’s wholesale inflation cooled in February but rising oil prices from the Iran conflict threaten to push price pressures higher again. Summary: Japan’s corporate goods price index (CGPI) rose 2.0% y/y in February, below the 2.1% forecast. Wholesale inflation slowed from January’s 2.3% rise, marking a third straight month of easing. Government fuel subsidies helped

Prior +2.1% HICP +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y prelim Prior +2.1% The drop in the headline reading owes much to lower energy prices mostly. So when you take a look at core annual inflation instead, that is seen at 2.5% – the same as in January. As such, this is still one stubborn area that is

The major U.S. stock indices closed the session with mixed results. The NASDAQ edged slightly higher, finishing nearly unchanged with a gain of 0.01%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.21% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.07%. The small-cap Russell 2000 also moved lower, falling 0.22%, reflecting a somewhat cautious tone in the broader

<html> <body> <!–StartFragment–>Trump announced a major refinery project in Texas backed by India’s Reliance, describing it as a historic investment aimed at boosting U.S. energy dominance.<!–EndFragment–> </body> </html> Summary: U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new oil refinery project in Brownsville, Texas. Trump said the facility would be the first new U.S. refinery built in

Container ship damaged off UAE, hit by suspected projectile near Strait of Hormuz Westpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and May Australian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next week Weak yen and oil shock cloud Japan inflation outlook — PPI recap

Do you ever get the sense that someone is playing games? CNN reported just minutes ago that Iran has placed a few dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz. They cited “according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue”, who were unnamed but they were no doubt sourced (and not made

Japan PPI for February 2026, AKA corporate goods price index (CGPI), measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services: -0.1% m/m expected 0.2%, prior 0.2% 2.0% y/y expected 2.1%, prior 2.3% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A container ship was damaged by a suspected projectile near the Strait of Hormuz as regional conflict raises risks to global shipping. Summary: A container vessel reported damage from a suspected projectile near the Strait of Hormuz. The incident occurred 25 nautical miles northwest of Ras Al Khaimah in the UAE, according to UKMTO. The

The IEA is weighing a record oil reserve release to calm markets after the Strait of Hormuz disruption sent crude prices sharply higher. Wall Street Journal (gated) reporting. ps. G7 discussion on oil scheduled for 1400 GMT on Wednesday, March 11, 2026: G7 to discuss energy coordination as Mid East tensions lift oil prices: 1400

RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warned oil-driven inflation risks could intensify policy debate ahead of the next interest rate decision. Justin had his comments posted here yesterday: RBA policymaker Hauser says oil price and Middle East volatility is a “genuine challenge” Pricing for a March 17 RBA rate hike has jumped above 50% on the back

Goldman Sachs expects February CPI to show easing core inflation as autos and shelter moderate. Data due at 0830 US Eastern time on Wednesday, March 11, 2026. Summary: Goldman Sachs expects February core CPI to rise 0.17% m/m, below the 0.2% consensus. The forecast implies 2.42% year-on-year core inflation, versus 2.5% consensus. Headline CPI is

Iran has laid ‘a few dozen’ mines in the Strait of Hormuz – report Trump: We have no reports of Iran placing mines in the Hormuz Strait US intel sees signs that Iran is preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz – report US Energy Sec removes video saying the US Navy escorted a tanker

North Korea tested a cruise missile designed for naval deployment while backing Iran and condemning U.S. and Israeli military actions. Summary: North Korea conducted a strategic cruise missile test on Tuesday, according to state media KCNA. The missile was designed for deployment on a naval destroyer, highlighting Pyongyang’s expanding naval strike capability. Leader Kim Jong

Oracle beat Q3 estimates and lifted its revenue outlook as cloud demand drove strong growth and a surge in backlog. Summary: Oracle reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $17.19B, beating estimates of $16.89B. Adjusted operating margin reached 43%, slightly ahead of the expected 42.7%. Cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS) totaled $8.9B, narrowly topping forecasts. Software

On Tuesday the USD/CNY reference rate was set at a 35 month low (ie a 35 month high for CNY). That could be surpassed today as the PBoC allows a stronger yuan again. — The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern

ECB President Lagarde pushed back against stagflation concerns but said elevated uncertainty prevents clear guidance on the next interest rate decision. Summary: ECB President Christine Lagarde said the eurozone economy is not in a stagflationary environment. She noted the economy has greater capacity to absorb shocks than in 2022, though uncertainty is currently higher. Lagarde

Japan wholesale level inflation indicator, the PPI, is due today. Expected just a loittle softer. Still, the most focus for markets will be on the war makers. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Ethereum futures analysis today points to a constructive 4-hour recovery, with ETH rebuilding fair value higher after earlier selling pressure. The latest structure favors the bulls, but traders still need stronger follow-through above $2,085 before calling it a clean breakout. Bias score: +3.5 bullish On investingLive’s scale, a +3.5 score means the market has a

The AUDUSD has pushed to a new high for 2026, breaking above the February peak at 0.7146 and reaching a session high of 0.7155. However, after the breakout, the price has rotated back lower and is now trading just below that prior high, creating the risk of a failed breakout if buyers cannot maintain momentum.

China exports surge at start of 2026 as trade surplus widens sharply. Summary: China’s exports surged 21.8% y/y in January–February, far exceeding expectations and accelerating sharply from December’s 6.6% growth. The country recorded a $213.6B trade surplus, well above forecasts and last year’s level. Imports also jumped 19.8% y/y, suggesting stronger trade flows despite weak

WTI crude fell below Friday’s low and through $80 after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated that the US Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. He’s now removed that post and oil is bouncing. This was the post: This isn’t a good look for the Secretary and White House communications. This

ICYMI: Goldman Sachs & Barclays warn sustained oil surge could push US inflation toward 3% Trump advisers urge Iran war exit plan amid epic oil price surge. Epic Blunder? Recap – Japan upgrades Q4 GDP to 1.3% on strong investment, Iran war clouds outlook PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8982 (vs.

High Yield: 3.579% vs 6-month avg. 3.563% WI level at the time of the auction 3.568% Tail 1.1 bps vs 6 month average of -0.6 bps Bid-to-Cover 2.55X vs 6 month average of 2.69x Dealers 19.5% vs 6 month average of 10.5% Directs 20.7% versus 6 month average of 25.3% Indirects: 59.8% versus 6 month

Nasdaq rebounds as oil prices ease and Trump suggests the war could end soon. What’s next? US February NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 99.6 expected ECB policymakers stress patience, assess if energy price shock is temporary or not French finance minister says “not there yet” with regards to release of oil reserves The

Shares of Canadian subprime lender Goeasy are down 60% today on guidance regarding surging loan defaults and write downs. It comes ahead of the March 25 earnings report. The company announced a $331mm charge to reflect weaker-than-expected recoveries on loans and will breach leverage covenants as a result. They have secured accommodation agreements but this

Summary of weekend notes ICYMI: Higher oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions could lift U.S. inflation if the increase persists for several months. Goldman Sachs estimates a sustained 10% rise in oil prices could add about 0.28 percentage points to headline CPI. In one scenario, U.S. inflation could rise from 2.4% to around 3% if

Prior 99.3 Full report here This is a minor setback but the index remains above its 52-year average of 98. This is not a market moving report and it certainly won’t be now that the focus is solely on the US-Iran war. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “Although optimism declined slightly, small businesses report

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq nearly tested its November low yesterday as markets kicked off the week in a strong risk-off mood. Sentiment improved later in the day as oil prices fell sharply following the G7’s indication that it may release emergency oil reserves. In the evening, Trump told CBS that the war could be over

The Australian dollar has extended its gain to 77 pips on the day to 0.7150. That’s the best level since 2023 and only a handful of pips away from the best levels since June 2022. I have been beating this drum for awhile but there continues to be much to like about the Australian dollar:

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the French trade balance and the Italian PPI report. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB or the market, so the reaction will be muted. The market focus

Summary: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says Arab or European countries that expel Israeli and U.S. ambassadors will be granted full freedom to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The statement was carried by Iranian state media and appears aimed at rallying diplomatic support for Tehran amid its war with the United States and Israel.

Sector Overview Today’s stock market presents a mixed bag of performance with significant movements across various sectors. Let’s dissect the big winners and losers illuminating today’s trading landscape. 📊 Technology Sector: This sector showcases a dichotomy. Nvidia (NVDA) climbed up by 0.91%, showing bullish momentum within semiconductors, complemented by Micron Technology (MU) soaring 5.68%. However,

As access to trading platforms and financial education expands, more women are turning to financial markets to diversify income beyond traditional careers. Participation in financial markets is evolving. For decades, investing and trading were often perceived as male-dominated arenas. But the rapid expansion of digital trading platforms, financial education, and global market access is reshaping

Iran war-driven energy surge sparks fresh rate hike bets across Europe. Via Reuters reporting. Summary: The war involving Iran has pushed crude prices above $119 a barrel, triggering renewed fears of another global inflation shock. Markets have increased bets that several European central banks may need to raise interest rates later this year. The European

The dollar is trading back down across the board today as its fate remains tightly correlated to oil prices at this stage. After jumping to a high of $119.50 yesterday, WTI crude oil has seen quite the reversal in falling back to $87.10 today. That as the roller coaster ride continues with market players now

Prior was 3.91m (worst reading since 2024 but revised to 4.02m) Home sales change +1.7% vs -8.4% prior Days on the market 47 vs 46 prior Inventory at months 3.8 vs 3.7 months prior Median prices $398,000 vs $396,800 prior US existing home sales, published monthly by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), measure completed

Crude oil is racing to the downside, pressured by both fresh fundamental developments and increasingly bearish technical signals. On the fundamental side, reports indicate that the IEA is meeting with government representatives on Tuesday to discuss supply conditions, with the purpose of determining whether a coordinated release of oil stocks may be necessary. That headline

Yesterday, the USDCAD had a down-and-up day that largely mirrored the moves in crude oil. Earlier in the session, the pair moved lower as oil prices surged, strengthening the Canadian dollar. Later, as oil began to come off the boil, USDCAD rebounded, reflecting a softer CAD. Today, oil is again trading higher, and USDCAD is

Summary: Donald Trump said the U.S. is waiving certain oil-related sanctions to help ensure adequate global supply and lower prices during the Middle East conflict. He pointed to additional crude supplies coming from Venezuela, including roughly 100 million barrels already delivered to U.S. refineries and another 100 million reportedly on the way. Trump argued the

Gold is near the highs of the day, up $80 to $5214 as investors pile back in. Last week, we saw gold sold on the war as huge uncertainty hit everything. I believe that led to a de-leveraging trade even as China added to its gold reserves for a 16th month. As I wrote early

The USDCHF spent much of yesterday’s trading session moving between its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, a sign of a market caught in a short-term battle between buyers and sellers. Late in the day, however, sellers gained the upper hand and pushed the pair below both moving averages, shifting the short-term bias to the downside.

Trump was asked if the war will be over this week: “No”. Summary: Donald Trump said U.S. forces have destroyed much of Iran’s naval capability and are heavily degrading its drone and missile production. Trump claimed the campaign is ahead of the administration’s original timeline and suggested the conflict could soon conclude. He warned Iran

ECB’s Simkus: Important to stay calm for next policy meeting, don’t overreact Deeper crisis may have price and growth implications We need to take the next decision based on the best information on the day of the meeting ECB’s Muller: We need to see if the energy price surge is transitory or not We shouldn’t

It is likely that they still need time to work out the details and nuances of the plan. But in the meantime, the threat has basically worked as oil prices have come off the boil. To some argument and extent, the “signal” that they are going to do so is in itself a tool that

Australian business conditions hold steady while confidence slips into negative territory. Note – this survey was taken before the war. With the surge in energy prices confidence will not have improved. Summary: Australian business conditions held steady in February, while confidence slipped into negative territory. The NAB business conditions index remained at +7, around its

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been trading in a tight range for about a week now, as tighter financial conditions outweighed stagflation risks. The hawkish expectations around interest rates eased yesterday after Trump told CBS that the war could be over soon. Following the comment, Treasury yields and the US dollar weakened as traders started to

A full-length interview with Stelios Pallis, Chief Technology Officer of XS.com As global financial markets evolve faster than ever, technology has become the key driver of growth and competitive advantage. At XS.com, 2025 was a transformative year, strengthening digital infrastructure, integrating AI across core systems, and reinforcing cybersecurity measures worldwide. These efforts culminate in the

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary: UK consumer spending grew modestly in February, rising 1.1% year-on-year, highlighting fragile household demand. Sentiment weakened as the Middle East conflict raised fears of higher fuel prices, energy bills and inflation. Retail sales growth slowed sharply, with wet weather and cautious spending weighing on the high street. Meanwhile, private sector pay awards accelerated to

Our response depends on the size and persistence of the price shock For now, that is all very uncertain There will be very genuine policy debate at the board meeting with arguments on both sides Rise in oil prices clearly an upside risk to our inflation projection, but still in a state of flux A

Major indices in Europe are eyeing roughly 2% gains and a little more to start the session now. That as oil prices come off the boil from yesterday with markets eyeing the IEA emergency oil reserves release and potential US SPR selling too. Adding to that, US president Trump has also said that the war

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1640-50 levels. After the drop since the start of last week, we’re finally seeing the pair move back above its 100-hour moving average (seen at 1.1597 currently). However, price action continues to

There is a significant amount of supply disruption to the market Almost 17% of total supply from the region goes through the Strait of Hormuz, so it is significant We are bringing the East-West pipeline to full capacity in the next couple of days We can speed it up but the issue was re-routing some

Major US stock indices are rebounding after Trump said that the war could be over soon. He also said that he may look to lower sanctions on Russian oil. He said he is thinking about taking over the Strait of Hormuz and he has someone in mind to replace the Supreme Leader. Pres. Trump will

China’s trade data for January–February came in much stronger than expected. Exports (USD terms) rose 21.8% y/y (expected 7.1%, previous 6.6%). Imports (USD terms) increased 19.8% y/y (expected 6.3%, previous 5.7%). Trade balance printed at $213.62B, well above the $179.6B forecast (previous $114.10B). — Added, more detail here: China exports surge 21.8% as trade surplus

Japanese GDP Q4 2025, final. 0.3% q/q expected 0.3%, prior -0.6% Annualized 1.3% expected 1.2%, prior -2.3% GDP inflation measure 3.4% y/y expected 3.4%, prior 3.5% — External Demand 0% q/q expected 0.0%, prior -0.2% Capital Expenditure 1.3% q/q expected 1.1%, prior -0.2% Private Consumption 0.3% q/q expected 0.1%, prior 0.2% — I’ll have more

Australian consumer sentiment edges higher but households remain pessimistic as inflation fears rise. Summary: Australian consumer sentiment rose modestly in March, breaking a three-month run of declines. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute index increased 1.2% to 91.6, though pessimists still outnumber optimists. Sentiment deteriorated later in the survey period as the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran intensified. Inflation

It feels like the market sentiment has just been reset in the last 24 hours, which started after the G7 and IEA said that they were going to coordinate a joint release of emergency oil reserves. That adds to the story that the US might be pursuing a hefty SPR release as well. And then

Summary: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded sharply to recent comments from Donald Trump, saying Tehran, not Washington, will determine when the war ends. The IRGC warned that if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue, Iran could block regional oil exports. Iranian officials dismissed Trump’s remarks about Iran as “nonsense” and warned regional security would

Earlier on Monday Trump did a TACO for the benefit of markets, sending oil down from its highs and boosting stocks: US Trump: The war could be over soon He has since spoken at a Republican conference where he has delivered much more mixed messaging. Summary: Donald Trump delivered hawkish remarks on the war with

US stocks rebound into the close as Trump signals war could be over soon US Trump: The war could be over soon Crude oil futures settle up $3.87 and $94.77 The good news? Crude oil is -16% off the high.The bad news? It is 10% higher on the day Tech turmoil: Financial stocks slump while

Japanese Household Spending January 2026 -2.5% m/m expected +0.8%, prior -2.9% -1.0% y/y expected +2.5%, prior -2.6% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD moved lower earlier in the session, extending toward support before buyers stepped in and pushed the pair back higher. The bounce has helped stabilize price action after the earlier downside pressure, but the broader technical picture still leaves the pair battling between key levels. On the downside, the pair tested support near [insert

Crude oil surged higher over the weekend as geopolitical tensions continued to threaten supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global energy markets. However, the rally lost momentum after G7 finance ministers met to discuss the situation and postponed any decision on releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) until tomorrow,

Just recapping this ICYMI. The main impact on the oil price was the news earlier re: US Trump: The war could be over soon But, this info is impactful at the margin. Like I said, ICYMI, see below. Summary: The U.S. is considering easing sanctions on Russian oil to stabilise global energy prices amid Middle

The focus is of course the warmongers, not the data. Nevertheless it’s a busy data agenda. We’ll get revised GDP from Japan, for Q4 2025. The preliminary reading for this was disappointing. In brief, from the day of the flash data: Japan eked out weak Q4 growth, but momentum remained weak: Q4 GDP barely positive,

Pres. Trump has told CBS news: “The war could be over soon” He says that the Iran War is very complete, pretty much” They have no Navy, no communications, they got no Air Force. The US is very far ahead of his initial 4 – 5 week estimated timeframe. Says that ships are moving through

The USDCHF gapped higher at the start of trading, pushing the pair above the 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart). However, the upside momentum quickly stalled. The pair was unable to extend beyond Friday’s high near 0.7828, and sellers stepped in. The failure above that high led to a move back below the

The USDJPY moved higher earlier today, testing a swing area near 158.89, a level that capped rallies on January 15 and January 22. Sellers leaned against that resistance, and the pair has since rotated lower. The move down has now brought the price toward the top of a key swing area between 157.65 and 157.97,

The USD is marginally lower against the CAD today, while the greenback is generally higher against most other major currencies. Earlier in the session, the USDCAD bottomed during the late European morning, reaching a low of 1.35242. That move tested a modest support zone between 1.35219 and 1.35316, where buyers stepped in and pushed the

Tech turmoil: Financial stocks slump while energy sees a surge The US stock market is experiencing a volatile session today, marked by significant sectoral shifts and investor uncertainty. The day’s trading has highlighted the tumult in the tech and financial sectors, while energy stocks display unexpected gains. 📉 Technology Sector Technology is under pressure today,

The GBPUSD fell sharply at the open, extending below a key swing area between 1.3298 and 1.3305. The downside momentum pushed the pair to a session low at 1.3282 before buyers stepped in and sparked a rebound. That recovery gathered momentum as the price moved back above the 100-hour moving average at 1.3347, where it

Crude oil prices have eased, trading below $100 at $96.72 after earlier reaching a low of $94.65. The move lower comes as markets speculate that G7 energy ministers may release strategic petroleum reserves when they meet tomorrow, which has helped calm some of the earlier inflation and risk concerns. Meanwhile, U.S. yields are slightly lower,

It’s a tough one, not least when the euro is also under heavy pressure amid surging gas prices. That as the energy disruption continues to permeate, with Iran striking key energy facilities across Gulf nations still. The latest being Bahrain as seen here earlier. The SNB seemed like they were comfortable enough to want to

G7 finance ministers met in their statement said that they will continue to closely monitoring the markets, and stand ready to take necessary measures possibly including the release of strategic petroleum reserves. They said that they would meet again tomorrow. The price of crude oil stored earlier today to a high of $119.48. Since then,

Prior 4.2 No surprises there as the index drops off amid the initial impact of the US-Iran conflict. I would expect investor sentiment to worsen further if given the chance to see another survey after the latest surge in oil and gas prices. For some context, the survey here was conducted from 5 March to

Shares of Aureus Greenway Holdings (NASDAQ: AUGS) surged roughly 55% after the Wall Street Journalreported that the company will merge with Powerus, a drone manufacturer backed by the sons of President Trump. According to the report, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. support Powerus through their investment vehicle American Ventures. The deal will take place

There is a report that the White House is mulling releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), but no formal decision has been made. According to Politico there is fierce opposition to tapping the SPR. Those who oppose tapping the reserve say a release would solve what they consider the underlying problem (war?). The

Ethereum analysis today Ethereum futures are trading near $1,986, stabilizing after the recent pullback from the $2,100 area. This stabilization is happening under a very unusual macro backdrop. The futures market opened less than six hours ago to start the new trading week on March 9, 2026, and global markets immediately reacted to the ongoing

Well, if there was any question about whether Trump was watching the oil futures open, it’s been laid to rest. He wrote on Truth Social: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety

Axios reports that Trump is unhappy that Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday. From the report: Israel’s strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots Saturday went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began eight days ago, according

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar opened higher today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and oil prices surged above 100$ per barrel. The greenback continues to be supported on safe haven demand and the hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations as traders pare back the Fed rate cut bets. The weak

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices jumped above 100$ per barrel today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and the market feared that the conflict could extend beyond what was previously expected. The momentum picked up already on Friday after Qatar’s Energy Minister warned that prices could surge to 150$ on a prolonged war.

Today is now the largest one-day percentage gain in oil futures history, or it will be if it holds. The April contract just crossed a 25% gain. That breaks the record on April 2, 2020. On that day, WTI jumped 24.7% to $25.32 in anticipation of significant production cuts after Trump said Saudi Arabia and

The FX market offered an early indication of a strong risk-off move in early trading this week and the futures market paints that much more clearly. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% on Friday and futures are down another 1.4% at the open. Gold initially rallied at the open but is now down $25 in a

Hard to say how the conflict in the Middle East could affect Japan’s economy Many citizens are worried about rising gasoline prices The government is scrutinising to see what steps it can take Any steps taken to mitigate the impact won’t likely involve changes to the fiscal year 2026 budget In just a week, Japan

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar opened higher today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and oil prices surged above 100$ per barrel. The greenback continues to be supported on safe haven demand and the hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations as traders pare back the Fed rate cut bets. The weak

The bleeding continues after a terrible period last week, which saw major indices in Europe wipe out their year-to-date gains in just a matter of days. That even after having hit fresh record highs in the week before the US-Iran conflict starting up. Here’s a snapshot for the day and how it all factors in

Monday begins quietly, with no significant events scheduled for the FX market, though geopolitical developments in the Middle East could influence USD movements. On Tuesday, Australia will release the Westpac consumer sentiment index, Japan will publish final GDP q/q, and the U.S. will report the ADP weekly employment change. While this release is usually not

Prior was +0.2% y/y CPI m/m +1.0% vs +0.5% expected Prior m/m CPI was +0.2% PPI y/y -0.9% vs -1.2% expected Prior y/y PPI was -1.4% This is a hot reading and will be even hotter with the energy price rise in March. This is the highest reading in three years. China’s Consumer Price Index,

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the German industrial production and the Swiss consumer confidence that won’t change anything for the respective central banks. In fact, the focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war and surging oil

Today is now worse than Liberation Day for Australian stock markets. The ASX 200 is down 4.3%, breaking the April 7, 2025 drop of 4.2%. In March 2020, it had drops of 9.7% and 7.4% which were the worst this decade. With today’s drop, the index is back to November levels and it it falls

Even with the decline, oil prices are still some 14% higher on the day so far. It underscores the fact that that the roughly $12 drop is just a minor knock. And that typically is what the IEA reserves release tends to suggest in extraordinary circumstances. It was the same back in 2022 amid the

It’s always darkest just before dawn. We’re one TACO away from a massive reversal in sentiment. The question is: Will Iran (and Israel) agree to stop the bombs if Trump asks? That would be a huge climbdown from the President but he’s not going to like headlines about oil going up the most in one-day

What a scintillating start to the new week this is. Oil prices have surged by well over 20%, poised for its largest one-day gain on record. And we’re talking about prices near $120 again after having initially hesitated to get above $80 last week. I mentioned last week already that the $80 mark was the

The euro is coming under increasing strain as the depth of the energy shortage from the Iran war comes into clearer focus. European countries are highly dependent on oil from the Middle East and — particularly — natural gas from Qatar as vital energy sources. Prices of benchmark European gas have surged and that will

The Financial Times is reporting that G7 finance ministers will be discussing a possible joint release of petroleum from reserves co-ordinated by the IEA later today. That in accordance to their meeting set up from last week here. I guess this meeting just went from one that was rather lame to become quite an important

Mon: Eurogroup Meeting, Chinese Inflation (Feb), Japanese GDP Final (Q4),Japanese Average Cash Earnings (Jan) Tue: EIA STEO, Chinese Trade Balance (Jan-Feb), German Trade Balance (Jan) Wed: OPEC MOMR, US CPI (Feb) Thu: CBRT Policy Announcement, IEA OMR,US PPI (Feb) Fri: UK GDP (Jan), US PCE (Jan), US GDP 2nd Est (Q4), US JOLTS (Jan), Fitch

Trump unhappy about Israel’s Iran fuel strikes – report Iran chooses Khamenei’s son as new Supreme Leader China February CPI +1.3% vs +0.8% expected Japana January current account surplus 941.6B vs 960B expected Japanese January labour cash earnings +3.0% vs +2.4% prior Trump: Oil will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat

USD/JPY is closing in on the highest levels of the year. The pair is up 80 pips so far today to 158.59, breaking above last week’s peak and trading at the best levels since January 22. That was the day of the widely-publicized Ministry of Finance rate check via US banks late on a Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls came in at -92K in February, a massive miss against the +55K consensus. To add insult to injury, the prior two months were revised down by a combined 69K. The three-month average pace of job growth is now running at a paltry 6K. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%. Not

U.S. officials are set to launch a $20 billion reinsurance facility designed to support Gulf shipping and help restart maritime cargo coverage. The program is expected to be unveiled on Friday by DFC Chief Executive Ben Black and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. According to the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, the initiative will partner with

China gold reserves at the end of February 2026: 74.22 million troy ounces In January 2026: 74.19 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of February 2026: $387.59 billion In January 2026: $369.58 billion Is anyone really surprised? China has arguably the biggest buyer out there for a while now. And that

EURUSD: GBPUSD: GBPUSD held support at an upward-sloping trendline on the hourly chart earlier today and then pushed higher, breaking above the 100-hour moving average and holding above it into the New York afternoon session. That move gives buyers something to build on in the near term. However, there is still work to be done

US stocks close sharply lower. Indices are down for the week. Fed’s Hammack: Dollar dominance remains intact as Fed stays patient Fed’s Collins: Expects the Fed rate target to hold steady for some time U.S. to launch $20B reinsurance facility for Gulf shipping Iran launches attack on US forces in Bahrain, and in Baghdad. ECB

It is Fed Collins turn to speak aa the clock ticks to the blackout period ahead of the Fed decision on March 18 starting after the close. Expects theFed rate target to hold steady for some time Now is time for the Fed to be patient and deliberative with rate policy To cut rates again,

Inflation is “too high” and price pressures are broad based Rate policy likely to remain on hold for quite some time Fed policy is in a good position to navigate inflation and labor challenges Remains committed to meeting the Fed’s inflation mandate The inflation problem extends beyond tariffs It would take a lot to dethrone

ECB’s Isabel Schnabel is is speaking and says: Temporary inflation overshoot is of little relevance if expectations remain anchored. ECB is still in a good place Iran war creates upside inflation risks. Central bank must monitor persistence of energy price shock Post-pandemic lessons suggest ECB must tread carefully. With inflation projected to be at our

Today’s stock market revealed a turbulent yet dynamic trading environment, as the tech sector faltered while energy stocks outperformed. The trading landscape was riddled with red, except for a few bright spots in specific sectors, reflecting broader market uncertainty. 📉 Technology and Semiconductor Struggles Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector is experiencing considerable pressure. Key players such

Kansas City Fed Pres. Jeffrey Schmid is speaking and says: Businesses are pausing on hiring. Labor market is under a structural not cyclical strain Jeffrey Schmid leans to the hawkish side on the Federal Reserve. In his most recent public appearance on March 3, 2026, he signaled his continued opposition to further interest-rate cuts, stating

Prior 130K revise to 126K nonfarm payroll -92K vs +50 9K estimate December was 48K. November was 41K Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.3% expected. Prior month 4.3%. Average hourly earnings 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.4% average hourly earnings YoY 3.8% versus 3.7% expected. Prior month 3.7%. Participation rate 62.0% versus 62.1% (revise from

Reports that Iran is launching attacks on US forces in Bahrain, and also attacking military base housing US diplomatic centered near Baghdad international airport. The price of crude oil is extending above the $92 level. The high price of just reached $92.61. The current price is trading at $92.20. That’s up $11.19 or 13.81% on

The situation in the Middle East remains the main story, as it has been in markets all week long. The optimists are looking for signs of de-escalation but so far, the actions on the ground continue to tell the story that the military conflict is carrying on. The latest developments since overnight trading did at

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level once more. It’s the same approach as it has been all week with the expiries once again sitting at the figure level. The key driver of trading sentiment in FX

At some point we will all regret the “I did my own research” and “don’t trust the media” stances. We certainly need more-professional media but something about social media broke everything to do with the consumption of information and we are headed towards a dark place because of it. The algo amplifies the worst stuff

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

Major US stock indices are closing lower on the day, but well off the lowest levels. A late day fall in crude oil from a high of $82.16 down to the current level is $79.65 helped to shift the bias on hopes the worst has passed. Looking at the major indices: Dow industrial average fell

The initial reaction to the February U.S. nonfarm payroll report saw the dollar move lower after the headline employment figure came in weaker than expected. Job growth slowed and several sectors posted declines, including construction, manufacturing, and leisure and hospitality. The report was also weighed down by a sharp drop in private education and health

For what it is worth, the US business and retail inventories for the month of December was released: Business inventories rose 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. Prior month was revised lower to 0.0% from 0.1%. Retail inventories rose 0.4% versus 0.2% last month. It is early March, so the data is old. This article was written

The jobs report was a tough mess. It is just one month but it was not a good month. If we get several months like this data, it would be of concern. It is hopeful that we see continued progress on inflation. Hopeful that we can resume the rate cuts by the end of the

We’re starting to see oil prices approach the highs from yesterday and most notably, WTI crude oil is wanting to hold above the crucial $80 mark. Despite all the volatility and a couple of downside spikes here and there, it’s been an otherwise one-sided push higher mostly for oil prices all through this week. Right

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened across the board on safe haven demand this week after the US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and

Fed Pres. Mary Daly (2027 voting member) on CNBC and says: One month of data is decisional right now inflation is above target. It’s a balance of risks calculation. Hope last year’s rate cuts would put a floor under job market, but this report has my attention. With oil prices increasing the question is how

The report notes that Tokyo is considering to release its national oil stockpile, even without coordinated international action. The headline sounds convoluted but there’s more nuance to it when you put things into context. Now, Japan is not an oil exporter and in fact relies heavily on oil imports – one of the biggest economies

Headlines: Oil prices resume climb to start European morning trade Qatar warns that the Middle East conflict could disrupt energy exports for weeks to months Qatar reportedly offers to lease LNG tankers as Ras Laffan plant stays shut What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? Japan reportedly mulls releasing national oil reserves

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold got stuck in a consolidation after the selloff experienced at the beginning of the week. We saw mixed and confusing moves across different markets with crude oil being the only one making sense. The focus is of course on the US-Iran war and especially on the Strait of Hormuz, which remains virtually

Prior was 0.0% Details: Ex-autos 0.0% vs 0.0% expected Prior ex autos 0.0% Ex autos and gas +0.3% vs 0.0% prior (revised to +0.1%) Control group +0.3%% vs +0.2% expected Prior control -0.1% (revised to 0.0%) Retail sales y/y +3.2% vs +2.4% prior This is January data, so it’s old news and it’s not going

Prior +0.3% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The FT reports that pressure on the Arab Gulf states’ finances could cause them to review their overseas investments and commitments. The cost of the war is beginning to mount as Iran strikes at US allies and US bases in the region. This report is undoubtedly aimed at putting pressure on the US to either

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been surprisingly resilient this week even though the US-Iran war kept a lid on the market. The conflict entered its 7th day today and the risk of things deteriorating further and eventually dragging the stock market to new lows remains high. In fact, the longer this war drags on,

Will find out today if the labour market is turning a corner January job gains were concentrated, did not give comfort that economy as a whole was doing well Expect January jobs number to be revised down Could see the March meeting going either way depending on the data Don’t see a lot of tariff

In the video above, I take a look at the technicals driving the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – as the price action defines the bias, the risk and targets during the news driven market. That news will shift – at least temporarily to the US jobs report and the

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the final Eurozone Q4 GDP report. This is very old data by now, so the market reaction will be muted. In fact, we are almost at the end of Q1 2026 and what happens next with the US-Iran war will

The Ras Laffan plant was already shut down earlier this week, after it was targeted by Iranian drone attacks. The plant covers about a fifth of the world’s LNG supply and is the world’s largest export facility in that regard. The latest report from Bloomberg states that as the plant remains shut down, Qatar is

Prediction Score: +2 / +10 Primary bias right now: neutral to slightly bullish repair, but still inside a decision zone. I would change that view if price close below the Value Area Low. What’s that? You will learn about that here. Looking only at this daily chart for NVDA, the biggest message from the two

Japan has not fully exited from deflation Compiling extra budget would of course be an option as said before Government ready to take steps in a timely manner to combat economic impact from US-Iran conflict Markets are making big moves so we will respond nimbly while closely communicating with peers With all the focus on

China hopes to convince Iran to allow LNG to pass through Hormuz Gulf states could review overseas investments – report Fed’s Goolsbee: Institutions are facing a crisis of trust US admiral: Iran’s ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90% Trump says Iran is contacting them seeking guidance on negotiating a deal Costco beats on earnings

Prior +0.7% Slight delay in the release by the source. UK house prices continue to edge up in February, with the average property price now touching £301,151 – marking a new record high. The annual growth for house prices also accelerated further to 1.3%, its strongest in four months. Halifax notes that: “The housing market

Just like the case of undershooting, we can also tolerate a small inflation overshoot I haven’t dramatically changed my view on policy outlook We are still in a good place We have learnt lessons from 2021/22 but comparisons with the current situation are not entirely valid Comfortable holding gold reserves at the Fed, confident in

BOJ keeping monetary conditions accommodative Gradually adjusting degree of monetary accommodation Japan is seeing inflation in the sense that consumer prices are rising But it is up to the government to decide whether Japan is out of deflation BOJ does not directly target exchange rate Will continue to scrutinise market moves, impact on the economy

Reuters is reporting that China is in direct talks with Iran to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for crude and Qatari LNG vessels. They cited three three diplomatic sources who are unnamed. We’re on day six of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the Strait is effectively closed for business, with about

The headlines here are starting to weigh on the market mood once again now as Kaabi warns that this could even drive oil prices up to $150 a barrel. He warns that while not all parties in the region have called for a force majeure yet, in which QatarEnergy has already done so, it will

US stocks close lower but rebound into the close Crude oil settles at $6.35 higher or 8.51% at $81.01 Kristi Noem is replaced as Homeland Security Secretary. Pres. Trump not looking to tap into the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) European indices close sharply lower after reversing earlier gains Oil jumps above $78 helped by reported

The Kospi opened down just over 1% after some utterly crazy moves this week. The Korean index had been swinging upwards of 10% daily, and this looks like a much more ‘normal’ day. Note though that the open breaks yesterday’s low, which isn’t a good sign. In Japan, the Nikkei opened down 1.1%. Asia stocks

Costco came in ahead on the top and bottom line in the after-hours report today. EPS landed at $4.58 vs. the $4.55 estimate, while total revenue hit $69.60B against the $69.27B consensus. Net income rose to $2.035B from $1.788B a year ago — a 13.8% jump. The comp sales numbers are where it gets interesting

CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper is highlighting something that markets should keep in mind: “If I just look back over the last 24 hours of the operation compared to the where we were to start, ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90%… Drone attacks have decreased by 83%… we’re now up over 30 ships [destroyed].”

US stocks are bouncing higher after a report that China is in talks with Iran to allow safe oil and gas passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The price of oil moved lower off of the news, and stocks have rallied off of lows. The S&P index moved up from a low of 6771 or

Gold is on track to finish the week about $45 lower but you wouldn’t know it from Asia-Pacific trading this week. Every day since the start of the war we’ve seen significant gains in Asian trading, often fading later in the day. That strength is a hint at where the bids are coming from: China.

Crude oil prices are expecting higher and trading above the $80 level. The current price is trading at $80.67 up $4.57 or 6.02%. The high price just spiked to $81. That move took the price above the high price reached in January 2025 at the start of the Trump term. That high in January 2025

Is this the start of the end? Trump also said that further action to reduce pressure on oil is imminent. Trump talked about a 4-5 week schedule but he hates: High oil prices Falling stock prices The market pricing out rate cuts (down to 36 bps from 60 bps before war) War in general In

Crude oil crude oil futures settle at $81.01. That’s up $6.35 or 8.51%. The gain is the largest since April 9, 2025. The high price reached $81.64. The low price was at $74.97. The price is trading at its highest level going back to July 2024. Reports emerged that an oil facility in Bahrain’s Al-Ma’amir

Pres. Trump has replaced Homeland security Sec. Kristi Noem with Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullen. Kristi Noem has been under political pressure due to several controversies involving immigration enforcement, spending decisions, and congressional scrutiny. Immigration enforcement incident A fatal incident involving immigration enforcement agents triggered protests and raised questions from lawmakers about the use of force

Pres. Trump is saying that he is not looking to tap into the strategic petroleum reserve or SPR. Trump was critical about the SPR reduction during the Biden Presidency. However, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently estimated to hold around 415 million barrels of crude oil, which is modestly higher than the level near

The NZDUSD fell sharply yesterday, breaking below a lower channel trendline that had defined the pair’s trading range since early February. That break triggered a momentum move toward a key support target at 0.5834, though the path there was anything but clean — price action was choppy, with notable two-way volatility along the way. The

The major European indices tried to continue the rebound to the upside early in the session, but stalled and reversed the sharply to the downside. German Dax was up 161.44 points at session highs. It is closing down -431.29 points or -1.78%. France’s CAC was up 47.28 points at session highs, is closing down -121.93

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by 750 points, or 1.54%. The S&P 500 is down by 54 points, or 0.78%, while the NASDAQ index is the least affected, with a decline of 112.5 points, or 0.49%. Concerns over escalating oil prices are starting to take a toll on stock prices. Crude oil has

Below is a summary of the Beige Book from a national ad regional perspective: National Perspective Overall Economic Activity Economic activity rose at a slight to moderate pace in 7 of 12 districts, while 5 districts reported flat or declining activity, an increase from four previously. Consumer spending increased slightly overall, but two districts reported

Shifting focus to crypto, Bitcoin’s breakout earlier this week has paused near $69K as short-term pressure builds and traders digest the prior upside push. But underneath the headline move in BTC, the broader digital asset complex was showing a more nuanced recovery very early yesterday, with Ether quietly looking stronger on the margin. Then as

Well, this is moving faster than anyone expected. A federal trade court judge just told the Trump administration to start cutting checks — ordering refunds on the massive pile of tariffs the Supreme Court struck down last month. This is a significant potential bit of stimulus for the US economy as it relates to $130

Sky News Arabia reported that Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said “Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program on condition that the United States presents a satisfactory alternative offer”. Yesterday, we got the news that Iran has been secretly contacting the US to reach a deal and end the conflict, although Iran dismissed those reports

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened across the board on safe haven demand this week after the US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and

Reports emerged that an oil facility in Bahrain’s Al-Ma’amir area was attacked, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to energy markets. Recently, crude oil prices showed some disconnect with the headlines. The market was less concerned thinking that damage would be minimal. However, as trading progressed – and more reports about disruptions surfaced – the

The USD/CHF is currently locked in a confined 40-pip trading range as the market searches for a definitive catalyst. Buyers and sellers are battling for control, with price action oscillating between key technical “swing areas.” Key Technical Levels to Watch 1. The Resistance (The Ceiling): 0.7812 – 0.7821 The topside of the current range is

Sector Overview The US stock market paints a mixed picture today as sectors vie for dominance. Notably, the energy sector is leading the charge with key players like ExxonMobil and Chevron posting significant gains of 1.37% and 1.36% respectively. In contrast, the communication services sector sees declines, with major stocks like Alphabet (GOOGL) down by

Prior 46.4 Residential building was the main reason for the drag in overall construction activity in February, being the weakest-performing segment (37.0) once again. That being said, there were also contractions in both commercial construction activity (46.5) and civil engineering work (41.0) with the latter slumping to its softest since September last year. S&P Global

Import Prices: Prior month import prices 0.1% revised higher to 0.2% Import prices MoM for January 0.2% vs 0.2% expected Import Prices YoY x.x% vs 0.0% last month Export Prices: Prior month export prices 0.3% revised higher to 0.6% Export prices MoM 0.6% vs 0.3%. The U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes are released monthly

This isn’t a change but it’s worth monitoring as we get inundated with headlines from the National People’s Congress today. It’s also worth watching Chinese stock markets today with gains of around 1% led by AI and chip makers. Consumer stocks are up about 0.5%, which shows that the pledge to boost the consumer isn’t

US-based employers announced 48,307 job cuts in February 2026, and that is down ~72% compared to the same month last year. Some good news is that through February, employers announced 156,742 job cuts in total. That marks the lowest January-to-February total since 2022. But when you put things into better context, it is the fifth-highest

The consensus is for a softer reading in the headline non-farm payrolls figure, following the strong showing in January. The first month of the year typically has seasonal factors imbued and this time, we are expected to see job gains of 59k. One known downside factor is the United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health

Headlines: Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program if the US makes a satisfactory offer Is this a hint that the US-Iran conflict might stretch on for much longer? ECB’s de Guindos: Baseline scenario is that US-Iran will be a short conflict ECB policymaker Villeroy: I do not see reason today why we should

Prior 44.7 This marks back-to-back decreases in German construction activity to start the new year, following a brief return to growth at the end of 2025. The civil engineering sub-sector recorded growth but that is in contrast to the sharp declines in work in both the housing and commercial segments. On the price front, average

Gold prices have seen a sharp intraday reversal, erasing early gains to trade firmly in the red. The turnaround followed reports that central bank reserves might be sold to fund defense spending. Currently, Gold is trading at $5,105, down $35 (-0.65%) on the day. Technical Breakdown: The Resistance Wall The early session rally hit a

The main issue that market players are struggling to grasp right now is the relative uncertainty with regards to the duration of the US-Iran conflict. That mainly affects the energy security in the region, especially with regards to the Strait of Hormuz and threats to other oil and gas facilities in Gulf nations. In turn,

Prior was 212K (revised to 213K) Continuing claims 1868K vs 1850K expected Prior 1833K (revised to 1822K) Initial claims beat, while continuing claims miss. They are both in the range of estimates though and not showing any material change. The market reaction has been minimal as the focus remains on the US-Iran war. Tomorrow, we

Prior -0.5%; revised to +0.2% The breakdown shows an increase in retail sales for food, drinks, tobacco (+0.3%), offset by a decline in sales for non-food products (-0.2%) and automotive fuel in specialised stores (-1.1%). But relative to the same month last year, euro area retail sales is at least seen up 2.0%. The monthly

Fed’s Barkin is on Bloomberg TV and says: Productivity and corporate margins 2.8% productivity growth is still a solid number. Strong productivity is helping firms maintain steady margins, allowing companies to absorb some tariff-related costs. Geopolitics and energy prices Too early to assess the economic implications of the Iran war. Gas prices still matter for

TMGM, Official Regional Partner of Chelsea Football Club, successfully presented the highly anticipated “The Famous CFC” Bangkok fan experience event on 1 March, bringing together hundreds of fans from across the Asia-Pacific region for an unforgettable night of football passion and exclusive experiences. Chelsea legend and former captain John Terry made a special appearance at

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the construction PMIs and Eurozone retail sales. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks or the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened across the board on safe haven demand this week after the US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and

Unit labor costs for Q4 Prior quarter -1.9% revised to -1.8% Unit Labor costs for Q4 2.8% vs 2.0% expected More details on Unit Labor costs from the BLS: Hourly compensation rose 5.7%, partly offset by 2.8% productivity growth. Year-over-year: Unit labor costs increased 1.3% over the past four quarters. Real hourly compensation: +3.1% in

The US Dollar is trading higher heading into the North American session. Investors are positioning themselves ahead of a 8:30 AM ET data dump, which includes Weekly Jobless Claims, Import/Export Prices, and Q4 Unit Labor Cost/Productivity data. Key Economic Forecasts: Jobless Claims: 215K expected (vs. 212K previously). Import/Export Prices: Expected to rise 0.2% and 0.3%,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices remain supported amid the US-Iran war and the virtually closed Strait of Hormuz. The bullish momentum has waned though due to some de-escalatory signals in the past couple of days. Just this morning, the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said that Iran was ready to abandon its nuclear program on condition that

The volatile trading continues on the week and it’s tough to hold any intraday convictions. S&P 500 futures were down by as much as 0.5% earlier on but have now climbed back up to pare losses to be up 0.1% on the day. The only plausible headline I’m seeing that ties closely is one reported

The China National People’s Congress kicks off today and the five-year growth targets and plan are out, with Reuters obtaining a copy. 2026 GDP target set at 4.5% to 5% CPI target set at around 2% Growth rate set for ‘reasonable rate’ for the next five years Will set 2026 budget deficit at 4% of

The Asia-Pacific economic calendar has only one highlight today and that’s the Australian January trade balance in goods report. The consensus is a surplus of A$3.9 billion, in a solid improvement from +$3.337 billion in December. Yesterday’s price action in AUD was strange as it was a laggard despite the stronger GDP number. I tend

We have to use different scenarios after Iran attacks Baseline scenario is that it will be a short conflict Other scenario is that it will be more protracted Market reaction has been orderly ECB should change its policy stance if inflation expectations change as a result of the Iran war To look out for any

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. It’s the same story as yesterday as the expiries here also intersect at the same level. The dollar is once again stronger today as markets are feeling a bit more

The NZD/USD is trending higher today, but the recovery is now facing its most significant test of the week. The pair is currently squeezing into a dense pocket of overhead resistance that will determine if this move has “legs” or if it is simply a dead-cat bounce. The Topside Hurdle: 0.5927 – 0.5940 The Kiwi

Conflict may have upward effect on inflation and downward effect on growth The proportion of which will depend on the length of the situation I do not see reason today why the ECB should raise interest rates I would say the fact that he has to mention it already shows how the conversation has shifted.

The major indices close higher for the second of three days this week. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index which rose by 1.29%. The S&P index rose by 0.78%, and the Dow Industrial Average rose 0.49%. With the week now half over, the S&P index is down -0.14%, the NASDAQ index is up

The price of crude oil has moved higher and moves back above $76. Iran’s strikes will intensify and expand in coming days Thousands of Iraqi Kurds have launched a ground offensive in Iran Iran says it hit a US warship with missiles 600 km away. It is reported that the missile 7000 km range and

It’s only been a little over three trading days but markets are evidently fearful of inflation pressures returning to major economies. Even if not fully reflected in central bank pricing, in which the needle has definitely moved, then at least take caution from the bond market. 10-year Treasury yields are up 16 bps since the

Major US stock indices close higher as the market discounts the geopolitical risks Bitcoin blasts through Key resistance. 38.2% retracement at $74,400 in sight Fed Beige Book: Overall economic activity increased at a slight/ moderate pace European indices rebound after two days of sharp declines White House submits nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair

Will enhance the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy To optimise the structure of fiscal expenditure Will keep liquidity ample, improve sustainability of government finances To keep exchange rate basically stable, enhance flexibility of the yuan Will release the full potential of services consumption Will boost effective investment, balance attraction of foreign investment To greatly

Well, they’re not going off into the wild in calling for triple-digit oil prices at least. The firm is offering a bit more of a measured take to start with as they see “mixed signals” from the US-Iran conflict. That especially with regards to the Strait of Hormuz, which is what market players are heavily

This was out a few hours ago but it’s important context in why oil prices are back near the post-war highs. Previously on Wednesday, a report said that Iran had reached out the US about negotiations. They were Axios reports saying that Iranians had sent messages over the last few days but that the US

Chinese stocks are up more than 1% today after the National People’s Congress revealed growth targets and some government priorities but now we’re getting some details. Chinese consumer stocks are laggards so far, up around 0.5% but we’re getting some notable headlines from the state planner now: Will improve the local tax system Will better

China five-year plan calls for more proactive fiscal policy China to continue ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy Iran denies that messages were sent to the US about negotiations China floats some tax changes A federal trade-court judge ordered a swift repayment of tariffs. Why it matters Australian January goods trade balance +2.631B vs +3.90B expected Markets:

We are going to get a bounce in Asian stock markets today but the question is: How high. Nikkei futures are trading at 56,310 versus the close yesterday of 54,245 in the cash market. That’s a healthy 3.8% rally following a 3.6% decline yesterday. I should warn that cash prices don’t always follow futures and

I can’t remember a time when the national stock market of a large, developed country traded like this. The Kospi rose 12% at the open today and is still up 11.4%. That’s after an 11% decline yesterday. If this were a time of covid or there was a war in the Korean peninsula, these moves

Bitcoin is back in the driver’s seat today, surging over 7.5%—its strongest single-day performance since early February and the second-largest gain since April 2025. The Technical Setup: The spark for this rally was a successful defense of the 100- and 200-hour moving averages yesterday. Once the price reclaimed the channel trendline near $67,400, the short-term

After most of the major European indices stretch to new cycle Heisler record highs at the end of last week, the today selloff on the back of the Iranian war was harsh. Looking at the percentage changes from the highs to the low prices reach yesterday shows: German DAX -7.10% France’s CAC -6.43% UKs FTSE

The White House has submitted the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the Fed chair to the Senate Recall, it was announced on January 30, 2026 that Kevin Warsh would be nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair. January 30, 2026: President Donald Trump announced his intention to nominate Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell when Powell’s

The New York Times reports that despite publicly refusing to negotiate with President Trump over the ongoing U.S. and Israeli military campaign, Iran appears to have quietly explored the possibility of ending the conflict. According to officials familiar with the matter, operatives from Iran’s intelligence services reached out indirectly to the C.I.A. shortly after the

I kinda got tired of people arguing if bitoin and ethereum “must still go down” or not so I turned to orderFlow Intel by investingLive.com Crypto futures are starting the session with a constructive tone, though the picture remains more nuanced than a simple breakout story. Bitcoin is once again probing the upper edge of

The USD/JPY is under renewed selling pressure today, emerging as one of the market’s biggest movers with a decline of nearly 0.50%. As broad USD strength wanes, the pair has retreated to a “make-or-break” technical junction that has defined the trend for nearly a month. The 100-Hour Moving Average: A Line in the Sand Since

The USDCAD saw an attempted breakout earlier this week fueled by broad USD strength. Remarkably, this move higher occurred despite rising oil prices—which typically support the Loonie (lower USDCAD)—highlighting just how dominant the USD bid was. However, the rally hit a wall at the 61.8% retracement of the 2026 range (1.3757). Since then, momentum has

Prior estimate 52.3. Prior month 53.0 S&P global composite index 51.9 S&P Global services PMI final 51.7 versus 52.3 preliminary and 52.7 last Details from S&P Global Overall Activity Five of seven US sectors expanded in February, down from six sectors expanding in January. Consumer Services returned to contraction, weighing on the overall sector performance.

The USD/CHF rally has finally “come off the boil” following two days of aggressive, war-driven safe-haven buying. After a sharp breakout above its recent trading range and the 50% retracement level (0.78206), the pair surged toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.78726. However, that momentum stalled at a high of 0.7878, leading to a rotation back

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight is the Swiss CPI report. The CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.0% vs 0.1% prior. The data isn’t going to change anything for the SNB as policymakers have repeatedly stated that the bar for negative interest rates remains very high and they won’t move even if

Monetary policy / interest rates We are probably about 1% away from neutral. Around 1% of rate cuts are appropriate this year. It is appropriate to cut rates at the March meeting. Would prefer continuing quarter-point cuts until the Fed reaches neutral, then reassess policy. The Fed should accommodate the AI-driven jobs transition with easier