A potential US-Iran agreement removed a major geopolitical risk premium from markets, sending crude lower, bonds higher, and equities sharply higher. While questions remain about whether Tehran formally signs off on the proposal, investors clearly preferred pricing in diplomacy over missiles.
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Trump cancels Thursday strikes on Iran, says deal near complete with weekend signing possible in Europe. Tehran and Israeli media dispute claims a final deal is done; Fars says approval likely.
SUMMARY
- After Tuesday and Wednesday bombings Trump cancelled US military action against Iran scheduled for Thursday night
- Iranian and Israeli media pushed back on claims a final deal has been completed
- Trump suggested a formal signing could occur this weekend in Europe, while the White House says negotiations remain ongoing but a framework agreement has been largely accepted
- Oil reversed sharply lower after the planned strikes were cancelled
- Trump said discussions had reached the highest levels of Iranian leadership, with a final agreement possibly signed soon
- Reports indicated major gaps between negotiators had been resolved, lifting hopes for de-escalation
- Iranian approval remains outstanding, with Supreme Leader sign-off reportedly still required. Iranian media, Fars News, reported any proposed agreement is likely to receive approval
US President Donald Trump cancelled planned military strikes on Iran that had been scheduled for Thursday night, saying negotiations had reached the highest levels of Iranian leadership and a final agreement could be signed soon.
The White House indicated a framework deal has largely been accepted, with Trump suggesting a formal signing could take place this weekend in Europe. Reports pointed to major gaps between negotiators having been resolved, fuelling optimism for a broader de-escalation after weeks of military tension in the region.
However, Iranian and Israeli media pushed back on claims that a final deal has been completed. Iranian approval remains outstanding, with reports suggesting sign-off from the Supreme Leader is still required before any agreement is finalised. Fars News, however, reported that any proposed agreement is likely to receive approval, suggesting Tehran’s resistance may be more procedural than substantive at this stage.
The result is a deal that exists in two states simultaneously, announced as done by Washington while neither confirmed nor denied by Tehran. Markets reacted decisively regardless, with oil reversing sharply lower on the news, suggesting traders are betting the box opens to reveal peace rather than escalation.
A potential agreement would also remove a major geopolitical risk premium from markets more broadly, with bonds and equities both moving sharply higher on the prospect of de-escalation. The gap between Washington’s framing and Tehran’s silence remains the key swing factor for energy markets into the weekend.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
