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The report says that the government is considering to revive subsidies for electricity and natural gas in the summer months this year. It is likely that said subsidies will cover usage from July through to September, with a budget that could reach around ¥500 billion. For now, the source says that the government is planning […]

One of the dominant growth stories in global markets over the last ten years has been Big Tech. The need to find scale, earnings momentum and long-term disruption by investors led them to the same destinations: a few, technology giants who appeared to own the future. Their balance sheets were sound, their business models were

US military commanders are set to present President Trump with fresh options for military action against Iran on Thursday, according to Axios. The plans under consideration include a concentrated strike on Iranian infrastructure aimed at breaking the nuclear negotiation deadlock, a potential ground operation to seize part of the Strait of Hormuz and restore commercial

Shares of Amazon initially fell but are now 1.7% higher on earnings. (now 3.2% lower). Revenue of $181.5B vs $177.3B exp Q2 revenue guide of $194-199B vs $188.9B exp (but this does include Prime Day in Q2 this year) Capex hit $44.2B, up 77% YoY. TTM capex stands at $147.3B, up 67% from $88.0B a

Japan’s industrial production fell 0.5% in March, missing the +1.1% forecast, as Hormuz-linked disruptions cut chemical and fuel output. Manufacturers see a further decline in April before a 2.2% rebound in May. Summary: Japan’s industrial production fell 0.5% month-on-month in March on a preliminary basis, missing the consensus forecast of +1.1% and extending February’s -2.0%

Official Chinese PMIs are expected to have slipped in April. The private survey manufacturing PMI, from Rating Dog (ps there is no better named data provider than this), on the other hand, is expected to have risen. I’ll get a preview of this posted soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The oil market is in a bit of a panic today. The main catalyst is a Politico report saying: White House officials huddled with oil industry executives Tuesday to discuss steps to tamp down the surge in energy prices in the event the U.S. keeps its blockade of Iranian ships in place for months. There

Minutes after the Fed kept rates unchanged and had 3 dissenters to having an easing bias and with oil trading above $107, and with gas prices moving to $4.23 a gallon, Pres Trump is saying “Now is a good time to lower rates” Fed Chair Powell in his press conference says that he will stay

The EURUSD is trading lower as yields push higher following the FOMC rate decision and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The move in rates is keeping the USD bid, with the 2-year yield up 9.3 basis points and approaching the 4.00% level. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield has extended further above both 4.25% and 4.00%,

AvailableRecent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhatis elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at

April 29, 2026 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in

Today is all about AI capex. This is the range to watch: $435–475 billion. That’s estimate capex for this year alone from Microsoft, Meta and Google, who all report after the bell. It’s an astounding number that I want to put into perspective. because even people in markets have no idea how big the AI

The final FOMC decision with Jerome Powell as chair: Prior was 3.50-3.75% Miran voted to cut Hammack, Kashkari and Logan did not support “inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time” Statement says economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace Job gains have remained low Inflation is elevated, in part

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The evolving conflict in the Middle East is causing heightened volatility and US trade policy continues to reshape global trade patterns. Both are ongoing sources of uncertainty. The Bank’s

Headlines: US futures keep more muted awaiting big day ahead Big day coming up on the earnings calendar in Wall Street Gold extends the losses amid US-Iran stalemate, hawkish central banks. What’s next? Fed preview: focus on Powell’s final press conference as no policy change is expected German states see slight uptick in headline inflation

Via oiprice.com: Expectations I had seen: headline crude oil +0.3mn barrels distillates –2.3mn bbls gasolina -2.1mn bbls This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite different.The

Prior was 2.25% BOC says “the labour market is soft” The Bank’s outlook assumes tariffs remain unchanged and the global benchmark price of oil declines to US$75 per barrel by mid 2027 China’s economy is being supported by robust exports. In the euro area, higher prices for oil and natural gas will weigh on economic

The USDJPY has spent most of its time since March 11 trading within a well-defined range between 158.00 and 160.00. There have been brief breaks outside that band, but for the most part, price action has been contained—making those boundaries a clear barometer for buyers and sellers. Today, the buyers started to take more control.

While US-Iran developments might still be the biggest risk to market sentiment, it isn’t the only game in town this week. As we look to round off April trading, key earnings releases are also part of the picture alongside potential month-end shenanigans. On the former, it is going to be a massive day up ahead

Here is a translated report from Trump, who spoke in an interview with Israel’s N12: U.S. President Donald Trump spoke today (Wednesday) with News 12 and stated: “I will not lift the naval blockade on Iran without reaching a deal regarding the nuclear program.” “The naval blockade is, in some ways, more effective than bombings,”

Dow Jones/Market Watch cite analysts who say Kazakhstan and possibly Iraq could follow the UAE out of OPEC, though Baghdad has denied any plans to leave. Analysts warn a weaker OPEC will struggle to stabilise oil prices long term. Summary: The UAE announced it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ from 1 May, citing longstanding frustration

NIESR cuts UK 2026 GDP forecast to 0.9% from 1.4%, sees inflation peaking above 4% in 2027 and warns of recession risk if the Iran war worsens. BoE seen hiking once to 4% in July. Summary: NIESR, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, cut its UK GDP growth forecast to 0.9% for 2026

Bitcoin made an early push higher today, extending to a session high of $77,882. That move briefly carried the price above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near $77,400—a key barometer for buyers and sellers. However, the break lacked follow-through. Momentum stalled, and the price has since rotated back to the downside, putting sellers

Data is here: Australia headline and core inflation above RBA target. Trimmed Mean (core) was 0.8% q/q vs. 0.9% expected and prior 0.9%. March month headline 4.6% vs. 4.7% expected. This seems to be the narrative for the drip in the AUD. Australia’s Treasurer Chalmers says the Treasury expects inflation to peak at higher levels.

Brent rose for an eighth day to above $111 and WTI topped $100 on reports Trump will extend the Iran port blockade. The dollar firmed. Earlier, US crude inventories dropped for a second week Summary: Brent crude rose for an eighth consecutive day, gaining above $111.75 a barrel, with the more active July contract at

Looking at the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq performance, and the fact that even the SpaceX IPO plans are still moving ahead, it might seem like the geopolitical noise has faded and everything is back to normal. But in reality, nothing has materially changed over the past couple of weeks. Talks lead to nothing, and

Prior +2.7% HICP +2.9% vs +3.1% y/y expected Prior +2.8% Core CPI Y/Y +2.3% vs +2.5% prior Full report here We’ve got lower than expected figures here but they won’t change anything for the ECB as the central bank has already pre-committed to a rate hold at this week’s meeting as they gather more data

As we hit the final bell, today’s earnings slate offers a diagnostic of the global economy. In today’s group of companies, a few are macro-sensitive, meaning their performance serves as a “canary in the coal mine” for broader economic shifts. At the forefront is Visa, the ultimate barometer for global consumer health; any dip in

Here are the changes in today’s MPR: GDP growth (annual) Essentially a wash on growth. The Bank explicitly states “the impact of higher global oil prices on economic activity is small.” Government spending got revised up (provincial budgets), residential investment got revised down (affordability still biting). Net-zero. CPI inflation (annual) This is where the oil

The Australian Bureau of Statistics publish March month and Q1 inflation data today. The numbers are expected to be horrible and will lock in a May (5th) Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike. I’ll pop up a preview separately. ps. Q1 trimmed mean (core measure) expected are 0.9% q/q and 3.5% y/y. Not quite so

Elev8, a global contract for difference (CFD) broker, has been honoured with two awards by FXDailyInfo, a financial news portal. The company was named the ‘Best Trading Experience Broker’ and the ‘Best Trading Platform Provider’, recognising its success in creating a comprehensive, efficient, and user-centric ecosystem for retail traders with Elev8Trader, a trading platform, at

CBA sees Australian March CPI at 4.6%yr, trimmed mean at 3.5%yr, and calls for a 25bp RBA hike in May. Westpac warns the Iran energy shock will broaden through H2 2026. Summary: CBA forecasts headline CPI rose 1.1% in March, lifting the annual rate to 4.6% CBA expects trimmed mean inflation of 0.9% for Q1

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar regained some ground to start the week as the prolonged US-Iran stalemate has taken oil prices back into triple digit levels. That looks unlikely to change anytime soon as Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal to first open the Strait of Hormuz and then hold nuclear talks. Unfortunately, with US

The Bank of Canada will announce or constrict decision at 9:45 AM. BoC expected to hold rates at 2.25%, maintaining a cautious, “wait-and-see” stance Policy balance: Weak growth and labor market vs. inflation risks from higher energy prices (US–Iran conflict) Inflation backdrop: Headline CPI rose to 2.4% (energy-driven) Core (Trimmed-Mean) eased to 2.2% (near target)

CME equities options data shows investors are still hedging, even as Nasdaq risk looks more balanced Key takeaways CME equities data around 28 April 2026 shows a market that is active, liquid, and still heavily hedged. S&P 500 options remain strongly put-heavy, suggesting institutions are still carrying downside protection. Nasdaq options are also hedged, but

The USDCAD is pushing to new session highs after the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged, with the central bank signaling growing concern over a softening labor market. Inflation is expected to drift toward 3% in the near term before easing back early next year—assuming oil prices cooperate. That assumption on oil is not helping

US intel agencies are studying how Iran would react to the US declaring victory UAE quits OPEC and OPEC+ US April consumer confidence 92.8 vs 89.0 expected US Richmond Fed March composite index +3 vs 0 prior US orders chip equipment companies to stop shipments to China’s second-largest chipmaker EU replaces its top trade official

The other state readings released around the same time: Brandenburg CPI +% vs +2.8% y/y prior Saxony CPI +3.0% vs +2.6% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.6% vs +2.5% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prior Hesse CPI +% vs +2.9% y/y prior More to come.. This article was written by

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has extended the losses yesterday after a technical breakout of the recent consolidation. The main thing that’s been weighing on precious metals has been the hawkish central banks amid the renewed inflation risk. That looks unlikely to change anytime soon as Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal to first open the Strait of

Final consumer confidence -20.6 vs -20.6 prelim Economic confidence 93.0 vs 95.2 expected (Prior 96.2) Industrial confidence -7.7 vs -7.2 expected (Prior -7.0) Services confidence 0.9 vs 3.5 expected (Prior 4.1) Consumer inflation expectations 49.1 vs 43.5 prior Well, that’s not a good look as surging energy prices continue to exert heavy pressure on the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The strong bullish momentum in the S&P 500 has waned recently as the prolonged US-Iran stalemate brought the attention back to underlying risks. The constant push for a diplomatic resolution instead of another full-fledged war has been supporting the risk sentiment on expectations that a deal would be reached eventually. Nonetheless, the stalemate

Prior +3.4% HICP +3.5% vs +3.5% y/y expected Prior +3.4% There is a little bit of good news here as Spanish headline annual inflation comes in softer than estimated. That being said, the EU-harmonised reading did reflect a jump to 3.5% from 3.4% in the month before. So, one can argue that it is a

The overall market mood remains tense amid a lack of fresh catalysts from the US-Iran conflict. Talks between the US and Iran remain gridlocked, with both sides not able to come to terms on how to get back to the negotiating table. That led to some nervousness in trading yesterday already with the S&P 500

The FOMC is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with no change to the statement. The base case is that this is going to be a non-event given the uncertainty around the Middle East situation and Powell’s final press conference. The US data since the last FOMC meeting in March has

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar regained some ground to start the week as the prolonged US-Iran stalemate has taken oil prices back into triple digit levels. That looks unlikely to change anytime soon as Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal to first open the Strait of Hormuz and then hold nuclear talks. Unfortunately, with US

There are just a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1695-00 levels. Once again, the expiries here may limit price movements closer to the figure level in the session ahead. However, just be wary that the main driver of trading sentiment

That headline, “BoJ can’t save the yen”, is a cracker from ING, straight to the point. ING warns the BoJ cannot save the yen, sees USD/JPY challenging the 2024 high of 162 and flags an outside risk of authorities holding off intervention until the 165 area. Summary: USD/JPY dipped modestly after hawkish dissent at Tuesday’s

Analysts warn the yuan faces earlier-than-usual seasonal weakness as Chinese firms hedge nearly $70bln in dividends, with June’s $24.1bln peak a record. (pro tip – Much hedging is likely already done). Post from earlier this month: Yuan seen strengthening despite seasonal headwinds as fundamentals and flows dominate. Summary: Mainland Chinese firms listed in Hong Kong

Canada’s 2025/26 deficit came in at C$66.9bln, below the C$78.3bln Nov forecast. GDP growth trimmed to 1.1% for 2026. Tariffs seen keeping output 1.6% below pre-tariff path by 2029. Summary: The 2025/26 federal deficit came in at C$66.9 billion, well below the C$78.3 billion forecast from November 2025 Improvement was driven by spending restraint and

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

US Treasury Secretary Bessent says Kharg Island is nearing storage capacity, costing Iran around $170mn per day in lost revenue and risking permanent damage to its oil infrastructure. Summary: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal, is approaching storage capacity He warned this will force Iran to reduce oil production,

The decision itself is unlikely to move markets, with the hold unanimous and widely expected. The significance lies in the language. Chile’s explicit warning that the Middle East conflict is evolving more adversely than its March baseline assumed adds to a growing body of central bank commentary flagging that the Iran war is reshaping the

The Iran war has done what months of sticky inflation data couldn’t: it has almost completely erased the market’s remaining expectations for Fed easing. The FOMC is overwhelmingly expected to leave rates unchanged tomorrow, with market pricing near 100% for no move. But the real story is further out the curve. Traders are now pricing

Reuters, citing unnamed sources, says the US intel community is examining how Iran would respond to the US declaring victory in the war. That Trump is even considering this is another sign that he’s done with the war. The ‘examination’ part is whether they would open Hormuz. The result may be that we essentially go

U.S. and Iran are closer to a deal than they appear, with talks focused on a staged process starting with Hormuz reopening, though mediators warn the next few days are critical. (Via CNN) Summary The U.S. and Iran are not as far apart as they seem, according to sources familiar with the mediation process, despite

The OpenAI report today hit chipmakers hard and now there is this: Reuters reports that the US Department of Commerce ordered chip equipment makers, including Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA (KLAC), to halt certain tool shipments to Hua Hong, China’s second-largest chipmaker. Shares came under further modest pressure on the report as

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has come under renewed pressure yesterday despite the lack of progress in the US-Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz closure. What has been weighing on the greenback to start the week was the news saying that Iran proposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US blockade

Prior was 0 Services index 9 vs 9 prior Manufacturing shipments -2 vs -2 prior For background, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s monthly Survey of Manufacturing Activity is one of five regional Fed surveys closely watched as early reads on U.S. factory conditions, alongside the Empire State, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Kansas City surveys. Released

Earlier today Politico reported (and now the FT confirms) that Sabine Weyand, the Director-General for Trade at the European Commission has been fired. The big surprise of last year’s trade war to me was how quickly the EU caved. It was the one region with the size and clout to stand up to Trump and

BoC preview: rates to remain unchanged amid US-Iran uncertainty and soft data Strong dollar selling expected for this month-end – Credit Agricole Silver erases all post-ceasefire gains as hawkish central banks weigh on precious metals Euro area inflation expectations for the year ahead jump to highest since October 2023 Latest ECB consumer expectations survey shows

CNN cites “sources close to the mediation process” and the report is from a journalist who is in Pakistan. This is a sign that they’re negotiating. There are quick moves in risk assets higher and oil lower on the headline. The caveat here is that leaks from Pakistan and their officials in the past week

Trump is said to harbour doubts about Iran’s Hormuz proposal even as the White House signals it will keep negotiations alive, according to the Wall Street Journal. Earlier: U.S. and Iran closer to deal than it seems as mediators push for Hormuz agreement first This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tech stocks face turbulence as energy sector surges Today’s stock market scene unveils a dichotomy of fortunes across various sectors, with technology stocks encountering headwinds while the energy sector exhibits notable resilience. The dominating narrative of the day appears to be a mixed market mood, prompting strategic reassessments among investors. 📉 Technology Sector: Under Pressure

Prior was 91.8 The April 2026 release, with a survey cutoff of April 22, came in noticeably stronger than expected. The headline index rose to 92.8, up from 91.8 in March and well ahead of consensus near 89.0 — extending a modest run of monthly gains and setting a new high for the year so

UAE quits OPEC, likely in a protest over the war. They will be leaving May 1. Oil fell on this on what’s assuredly an algo-driven move. It’s quickly reversed. For oil prices for now it’s meaningless, as OPEC will be pumping at full-bore for a long time after the war to rebuild inventories. For what

Prior was 54,750 Report for the four weeks ending April 11 The NER Pulse is a weekly private-sector employment tracker launched in late 2025 by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. It serves as a high-frequency companion to the long-running monthly ADP National Employment Report (NER), which has delivered snapshots of

IC (previously IC Markets), a leading global provider of online trading services, has announced a strategic partnership with Guillermo Ochoa, accelerating its expansion across Latin America with a sharp focus on Mexico—one of its fastest-growing markets. An icon of modern football, Ochoa continues to perform at the highest level with AEL Limassol, maintaining his status

Bank of Japan holds rates but sharply upgrades inflation outlook as Iran war bites The Bank of Japan left its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% on Tuesday, as widely expected, but delivered a significantly more hawkish inflation outlook alongside the decision, sharply revising up its price forecasts while acknowledging that the Iran war and

Forecasts an economic slowdown for the coming fiscal year as Middle East tensions weigh But overall, economic outlook remains stable although conditional on supply chain situation For now, Japanese economy shows moderate recovery signs despite some weakness That outlook assumes no major supply chain disruption though BOJ will keep raising interest rates while adjusting level

The BOJ has stayed on hold as probability of baseline outlook has decreased Underlying price trend is still below target Prefers utilising more time in evaluating Middle East situation and how it will impact economy, prices Takes seriously the fact that there were three board members who dissented on the decision today The other six

Trump and his national security team are sceptical of Iran’s Hormuz offer, with officials saying he doubts Tehran’s good faith and will not drop his demand for an end to nuclear enrichment. (via WSJ, gated). Not so upbeat as this reported earlier by CNN: U.S. and Iran closer to deal than it seems as mediators

Iran has just 12 to 22 days of unused crude storage remaining, with exports down 70% under the U.S. naval blockade and a further 1.5 million bpd output cut possible by mid-May, Kpler says. Bloomberg (gated) carry the report. Summary Iran has just 12 to 22 days of unused crude storage capacity remaining, according to

Needs to call for more effective, proactive fiscal policy To continue to expand domestic demand To implement appropriately loose monetary policy Will ensure liquidity conditions remain ample Will keep yuan exchange rate basically stable To improve energy security, stabilise property market and price of agricultural products To orderly resolve risks related to local government debt

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are all for EUR/USD layered in between the 1.1700 to 1.1750 levels. Given the size of the expiries, we could see more cagey price action in the session ahead in and around the levels noted. That especially if

VP Vance has privately questioned Pentagon briefings on the Iran war and raised concerns about serious U.S. missile shortfalls, with Iran said to retain most of its military capability. Summary Vance has repeatedly questioned the Pentagon’s portrayal of the Iran war in closed-door meetings, raising concerns that U.S. missile stockpiles have been more severely depleted

One year ahead inflation expectations rise to 4.0% in March from 2.5% in February 3 years ahead Inflation expectations rise to 3.0% vs 2.5% prior 5 years ahead rise to 2.4% from 2.3% GDP growth seen at -2.1% in year ahead vs -0.9% seen a month earlier Full report here The latest ECB consumer expectations

The fallout from the Middle East conflict is certainly taking a toll on households and the survey results definitely show it. As mentioned before, the prices we see on our screens reflect those of futures contracts. They are not the same as physical prices and prices at the pump, which have skyrocketed. And the longer

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Foreign automakers including Nissan, Hyundai and Toyota have warned the Trump administration they may pull affordable models from the U.S. market if USMCA is not renewed or is significantly weakened. Wall Street Journal (gated) reporting. Summary Foreign automakers including Nissan, Hyundai and Toyota have privately warned the Trump administration they may withdraw their most affordable

The BOJ policy decision earlier sees USD/JPY drop back from around 159.50 to sit closer to the 159.00 level currently. The central bank opted to maintain the short-term interest rate at 0.75%. However, there were three board members who dissented and wanted to push for a 25 bps rate hike today. The members who dissented

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama warns of decisive FX action coordinated with the U.S. as crude oil volatility drives yen weakness, with the BOJ rate decision due later in the session. BOJ expected to hold rates steady as Iran conflict complicates tightening path Summary Finance Minister Katayama said crude oil volatility is feeding into FX markets

Dallas Fed April manufacturing index -2.3 vs -0.2 prior Canada to set up $25 bilion sovereign wealth fund Iran says it’s looking into the US request for negotiations US sells 5-year notes at 3.955% vs 3.960% WI A big reason why US stocks have been so strong this year: Earnings are growing Markets: S&P 500

Japan March 2026 jobs data. Unemployment rate 2.7% expected 2.6%, prior 2.6% Job-To-Applicant Ratio 1.18 expected 1.19, prior 1.19 Still to come: BOJ expected to hold rates steady as Iran conflict complicates tightening path This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Japan leaves its short term rate at 0.75%, as expected Bank of England rate decision may spring a split vote surprise, HSBC warns Morgan Stanley sees dollar risks skewed to downside as energy shock sensitivity fades Iran has 22 days of storage left as naval blockade drives exports to near collapse PBOC sets

HSBC warns the Bank of England’s Thursday rate decision could deliver a hawkish split vote, with some members potentially voting for a rise, though sterling upside looks limited with 60bps already priced. Summary HSBC analysts say the Bank of England’s Thursday rate decision could produce a split vote, with some members potentially voting to raise

more to come The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The BOJ is expected to hold rates at 0.75% as the Iran war clouds its tightening path, with Governor Ueda’s press conference the key watch for signals on the next hike. Earlier: Do you know what time the BoJ announcement is? Read on! BOJ expected hold but deliver hawkish signal on June move BOJ may

Morgan Stanley says dollar risks are increasingly skewed to the downside as FX markets grow less sensitive to energy war headlines, though refined product shortages remain a key upside risk for the currency. Summary Morgan Stanley analysts say risks for the dollar are increasingly skewed to the downside, with FX markets becoming less sensitive to

The market is pricing in only a tiny chance of a Bank of Japan rate hike today but it’s a central bank that’s notorious for surprises, so we will be keeping a close eye. Excluding that, the market will be tuned into signals for the June 16 meeting, which is priced at roughly 50/50 for

UK shop price inflation eased to 1.0% in April from 1.2% in March as Easter discounts helped retailers stimulate spending, though the BRC warned Middle East cost pressures are fast approaching. Summary The British Retail Consortium said UK shop prices rose 1.0% year on year in April, down from 1.2% in March, as Easter promotions

The copper bull case got a fresh proponent today as Scotiabank’s Orest Wowkodaw is back with a market update barely a month after his last one, and the message is that things are tightening faster than expected. Three major supply blows — Grasberg cuts, Kamoa-Kakula downgrades, and Barrick parking the Reko Diq project — have

Prior was 3.980% 6-auction average of 3.725%. Bid to cover at 2.33 vs 2.29 prior The two-year sale tailed by 0.1 bps and this one by 0.5 bps. Those aren’t big misses but Treasury yields are now at the highs of the day, up 3-4 bps across the curve. We could finally be seeing some

I’d be very careful in trying to read the headlines that are doing the rounds at the moment. There are plenty of sources on social media echoing the same headlines that we’ve seen from earlier here: Iran proposes Hormuz deal without nuclear talks in bid to break US negotiation deadlock The headlines are along the

Trump was unusually quiet on Truth Social today but just tweeted out something about talk show host Jimmy Kimmel, calling for him to be fired. The White House briefing is ongoing and Leavitt would not say that they are considering Iran’s proposal, but it is under discussion. That’s something but might just suggest that Trump’s

The US stock market today presents a mixed landscape, with significant fluctuations across sectors, driven by tech volatility and diverse performance in consumer and industrial sectors. Our analysis of the latest stock market heatmap provides a comprehensive snapshot of these dynamic market conditions. 📊 Sector Overview: Technology Turbulence and Consumer Cyclical Struggles Technology: The tech

On Telegram, Iran’s foreign minister said the US has reached out to request negotiations and that they’re looking into the request. On the weekend, Trump said Iran could call the USA if it wanted talks, now Iran says the opposite is underway. Who knows what the truth is but Trump is holding a meeting today

Trump’s interview on 60 Minutes. Trump says he is unsure he was the target in the Hilton hotel attack. Earlier: Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victorious He’s been saying this for weeks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It will be a busy week for the FX market in terms of economic events, but it will start slow with nothing significant on the calendar for Monday. That said, the market will pay attention to any developments from the conflict in the Middle East. On Tuesday, the focus will be on the Bank of

Citi: Raising our base case average Brent crude oil price forecasts to $110/95/80/BBL for 2Q/3Q/4Q 2026 Flows could easily remain disrupted through the end of June, which could see Brent oil reach $150/bbl This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was -0.2 Output +19.0 vs +6.8 prior New orders +9.9 vs +6.1 prior Prices paid 37.0 vs 32.7 prior Employment -0.9 vs -1.0 prior Prices received 14.9 vs 5.9 prior Wages and benefits 14.3 vs 14.6 prior The finished goods prices index jumped nine points to 27.6, its highest level since July 2022 This

Full report here According to the ECB’s latest Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), Eurozone companies faced significantly tighter bank lending conditions and a sharp rise in short-term inflation expectations during the first quarter of 2026. Data revealed that a net 26% of firms reported higher interest rates on bank loans, more

ECB policymakers have made it quite clear that they are valuing optionality as we approach the next policy decision this week. And markets are also listening, paring back on rate hike pricing with odds of such a move now seen at ~20% only. Those odds do jump back up to ~63% by the time we

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices continue to edge higher amid the lack of progress in the US-Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz closure. The latest reports say that Iran proposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US blockade is lifted and then hold nuclear talks later. Trump has been insisting on reaching a

Earlier: China imports set to overtake exports for first time since 2021 on AI chip surge – The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets.

The broader market mood remains more cautious so far on the day. European indices are lightly changed while S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% with traders and investors still digesting the latest developments from the Middle East. US-Iran talks continue to stall but there is some hope with reports emerging earlier today that Iran might

This is one of the most-confused and confusing periods in markets that I can ever remember. The leaks out of war are coming from at least four separate directions: The US Iran Israel Pakistan None of it is credible, not even close. It’s like there’s a battle within the war to send out the most

India signs New Zealand free trade deal as Modi accelerates global FTA push Preview: Bank of Japan rate decision knife-edge, Japan inflation runs hotter than expected Citi says oil flow disruption could continue, Brent could hit US$150 / barrel China industrial profits surge at fastest pace since September in boost for economy Iran proposes Hormuz

Headlines: The echo chamber harps on Iran proposing to reopen Strait of Hormuz before nuclear deal Iran foreign minister says to continue talks with Oman on Strait of Hormuz Oil prices continue to rise amid the US-Iran stalemate; Iran awaits US blockade removal Dollar lags even as risk mood keeps more cautious on the day

Very sparse. Not likely to move financial markets the one set of items that is due. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has come under renewed pressure despite the lack of progress in the US-Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz closure. What has been weighing on the greenback to start the week was the news saying that Iran proposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US blockade is

The central bank bonanza returns to town this week and will feature plenty of big names on the agenda. The BOJ, BOC, Fed, BOE, and ECB will be stepping up to the plate but are all expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The hot topic is the Middle East war and we are now officially

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been stuck in a consolidation for almost a month now despite lower real yields, looser financial conditions and a weaker US dollar. The main thing that’s been capping the bullish momentum has been the more hawkish Fed’s stance. This is unlikely to change anytime soon as even if the US-Iran war

China’s import growth is forecast to hit a five-year high of 5% in 2026, overtaking export growth for the first time since 2021, driven by a surge in AI-related chip purchases. (Info via Bloomberg, gated). Summary China import growth forecast upgraded to 5% in 2026, a five-year high, more than double the 2.4% predicted in

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep the policy rate steady at 0.75% tomorrow. The central bank will also release the quarterly outlook report where inflation is expected to be revised higher, while growth lower due to the US-Iran war. There were some speculations a couple of weeks ago that the BoJ could

ING says Japan’s March CPI beat forecasts and inflation will accelerate further, complicating the BoJ’s rate decision on April 28 and keeping an April hike on the table despite market consensus for a hold. Earlier previews with a conflicting view: Preview: BOJ expected to stay on hold next week but deliver hawkish signal on June

Tomorrow we get the Bank of Japan: Preview: BOJ expected to stay on hold next week but deliver hawkish signal on June move BOJ may lean more hawkishly to ease pressure on the yen – Nomura Holidays follow on Wednesday then Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week (Golden Week). This article was written by Eamonn

India and New Zealand have signed a free trade agreement in Delhi, granting 100% duty-free access for Indian exporters and securing an estimated $20 billion in New Zealand investment commitments. Summary India and New Zealand signed a Free Trade Agreement in Delhi, eliminating and lowering tariffs across a range of goods New Zealand grants 100%

This is the second large commercial vessel in the past week have now been hijacked my Somali pirates. Trump’s assertion that the war is nearly done: Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victorious In a moment of rare candour last week Trump compared it to the decade+ Vietnam war. This

An earthquake with a magnitude of 6.1 hit norther Japan, Hokkaido early on Monday morning local time. depth 81km 2023 GMT on Sunday I haven’t heard of a tsunami alert as yet. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war before nuclear talks begin, passing the plan via Pakistani mediators to the White House as negotiations remain deadlocked. (Axios reporting on what I reported on hours ago) Summary Iran passed a new proposal to the White House via Pakistani mediators to reopen the

MInor moves since Friday’s close only so far: As an early heads up, Trump is going to be interviewed on 60 minutes Sunday evening US time (from 7pm US Eastern time). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran Foreign Minister met with Oman: Important discussions … focus included ways to ensure safe transit that is to benefit of all dear neighbors and the world This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s industrial profits at large firms rose 15.8% year-on-year in March, the fastest pace since September, with Q1 profits up 15.5%, beating the prior 15.2% reading. Earlier: China imports set to overtake exports for first time since 2021 on AI chip surge Summary China’s industrial profits at large firms rose 15.8% year-on-year in March, fastest

Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $90/bbl and WTI to $83/bbl, citing 14.5 mln bpd of Middle East output losses driving a record 11-12 mln bpd global inventory draw in April. Summary Goldman Sachs raises Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90/bbl, up from prior forecast of $80/bbl Q4 2026 WTI forecast

Talks are stalled. No progress to report. Soon: Trump interview on 60 Minutes, 7pm US Eastern time His recent remarks have been delusional: Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victorious Other: Reports that a cargo ship has been attacked in Bab al-Mandab Strait Iran’s FM discussion with Oman on ways

PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead. The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 218.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump was his usual delusional self over the weekend: Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victorious Expect more of the same when he speaks on the telly soon. Still, markets seem to like his reassurance. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tehran’s sequenced negotiation plan puts war’s end before nuclear discussion. Mid East media with the report. Summary Iran has submitted a three-phase negotiation framework to mediators, per Al Mayadeen’s Tehran correspondent Phase one: ending the war and securing non-resumption guarantees for both Iran and Lebanon; no other issues on the table at this stage Phase

Iran foreign minister Aragchi travelled to Oman as expected on the weekend but then returned to Pakistan, according to reports. There are also reports that there has been some progress on the nuclear file, with the US accepting a moratorium on the enrichment ban or some kind of phased enrichment after 10 years. The comment

Mon: German GfK Consumer Confidence (May), US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) Tue: BoJ Policy Announcement (Apr), Spanish/Italian Retail Sales (Mar), Italian PPI (Mar), US ADP Weekly Employment Change, US House Price Index (Feb), US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr), US Richmond Fed Index (Apr), US Dallas Fed Index (Apr) Wed: Fed Policy Announcement (Apr), BoC

Donald Trump told Fox News on Saturday that US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will no longer travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran. Trump said the trip was not worthwhile, claiming that the United States “holds all the cards” in the war and does not need to send a delegation on an 18-hour

Iranian foreign minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi met with Pakistani officials in Islamabad today in an effort to try to restart talks. A Pakistani source cited by Reuters said that Iran had delivered both their demands and their reservations about US demands. Much of it sounds like the things we’ve already heard before and there are

The NASDAQ and S&P indices close at record levels Meeting between US and Iran may not take place until Monday Global Central Banks decisions highlight next week’s calendar: Market Volatility Ahead Earnings next week: Big Tech takes center stage Trump sends WItkopf and Kushner for talks with Iran. Vance is not going US Dept of

The week ahead is stacked with global central bank decisions and top-tier inflation and growth data, making it one of the most important macro weeks of the month. The Bank of Japan kicks things off, but the focus quickly shifts to a midweek cluster of Bank of Canada and FOMC decisions, followed by a “super

Scott Bessent in a WSJ interview speaks about the key economy and policy goals as he maneuvers through the Iranian war and other global economic hurdles.: Goal: Restore strong U.S. growth following war disruptions while keeping expansion intact Balance inflation vs. growth: Bring inflation down without choking economic expansion Lift real wages: Focus on improving

Earnings season so far has come in better than expected and broadly supportive for equities, helping push major indices back toward record highs despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Early reports show that roughly 80%–85% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates, a strong beat rate by historical standards, with profits tracking toward double-digit growth of

Via Reuters, ICYMI, the info that Asia crude imports on track for a 22% annual fall to a 10-year low in April as the Hormuz closure forces refinery run cuts. Diesel and jet fuel output losses seen at up to 2 million bpd. Summary Asia’s crude imports on track to fall 22% year-on-year to 20.4

Goldman Sachs estimates 57% of Gulf crude output was offline in April. A Hormuz reopening could restore most supply within months, but tanker shortages and well damage may slow recovery. (Reuters with the info) Summary Goldman Sachs estimates around 14.5 million bpd of Gulf crude output, roughly 57% of pre-war supply, was offline in April

The Department of Justice is expected to drop its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as soon as today, ABC News reports. (Update: It’s now confirmed) Senator Thom Tillis said he wouldn’t advance the nomination of Kevin Warsh so long as the probe remained open. Other Republican Senators were also strongly against it.

Canada retail sales came in a bit softer on the surface, but the underlying details were more constructive. Headline sales rose +0.7% vs +0.9% expected, but the prior month was revised higher to +1.2% from +1.1%. Ex-autos, sales increased +0.5% vs +0.8% expected, with the prior also revised up to +1.0% from +0.8%. So while

CNN is reporting that the special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will represent the US in the talks in Pakistan this weekend. VP Vance is not going because neither is Ghalibaf, but he does remain on stand-by. The X post from CNN’s Alayna Treene Scoop: Trump is sending his special envoy Steve Witkoff and

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been gradually strengthening since Tuesday as the US-Iran stalemate led to some profit-taking on bearish dollar bets. There’s still no clear sign of a second round of talks after Iran refused to send a delegation to Islamabad on Tuesday due to the US blockade in the Strait of

There are just a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance and may not feature much into play. That especially if the trading mood in Europe today follows the same theme as

We have said very clearly that, given the situation in the Middle East, we are ready to intervene We have a greater willingness to intervene We have observed since the start of the conflict that the franc has lost value There is no market reaction to this headline, as the Swiss isn’t under any particular

This couple of headlines from a Asia One news correspondent is doing the rounds and giving broader market sentiment a lift at the momen: More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prelim was 47.6 Prior was 53.3 Details: Conditions 52.5 vs 50.1 prelim (55.8 in March) Expectations 48.1 vs 46.1 prelim (51.7 in March) 1-year inflation 4.7% vs 4.8% prelim (Prior was 3.8%) 5-year inflation 3.5% vs 3.4% prelim (Prior was 3.2%) This is a modest recovery from the preliminary survey, likely as oil came down

National inflation data from Japan for March 2026 is due. Tokyo’s March consumer price data, released three weeks ago, offers a useful early read on the national figures due today. Headline inflation in the capital came in at 1.4% year-on-year, easing from 1.5% in February and touching its softest level since March 2022. The core

Prior 86.4; revised to 86.3 Current conditions 85.4 vs 86.2 expected Prior 86.7 Outlook 83.3 vs 85.0 expected Prior 86.0; revised to 85.9 That is the lowest such reading since October 2022 as German business sentiment tumbles amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Adding to that, the outlook/expectations index also falls to its

Trump to address top $TRUMP meme coin holders at Mar-a-Lago crypto summit Saturday 25 Apr. Israel UN envoy warns Lebanon ceasefire extension “not 100%” despite White House deal Goldman Sachs: Gulf crude production may mostly rebound quickly after Hormuz opens ICYMI: Iran war forces Asia refiners to slash runs, putting diesel and jet supply at

Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.6% Retail sales +1.7% vs +1.3% y/y expected Prior +2.5%; revised to +1.8% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.2% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.6% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.7% vs +2.0% y/y expected Prior +3.4%; revised to +2.7% The reading is much better than expected but

The Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) released by the Bank of Japan measures the prices of services traded among companies. It presents price developments that reflect most sensitively the supply and demand conditions in the services market. It is also considered as an indicator for inflationary pressures. — At the margin, yen bullish. This article

US initial jobless claims 214K vs 210K expected US April S&P Global services index 51.3 vs 50.3 expected “Don’t rush me” Trump says when asked about Iran Trump says Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is Trump says he orders attack on any boat placing mines in Strait of

BOJ set to hold at 0.75% on 27-28 April but signal June hike readiness. Growth forecasts to be cut, inflation revised up sharply as Iran war energy shock fans second-round price risks. Summary BOJ widely expected to keep its policy rate on hold at 0.75% at the April 27-28 meeting Board set to cut its

Before the Middle East conflict, this April meeting was meant to be one where the BOJ delivers on another rate hike after the outcome of the spring wage negotiations. Instead, the war has complicated things and raised uncertainty to the point where policymakers don’t feel comfortable in rushing a decision – for now at least.

Trump to deliver keynote remarks at a crypto conference at Mar-a-Lago at 12:00 EDT/16:00 GMT Saturday April 26. Attendance strictly limited to top 297 holders of the $TRUMP meme coin. Trump will deliver keynote remarks at a cryptocurrency conference at Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach, Florida at 12:00 EDT / 16:00 GMT on Saturday April 26 The

For all the noise we’re seeing in the past few days, the fact remains that the US and Iran are unable to arrange a second meeting in Pakistan. Iran continues to maintain a hard line in saying that they will not want to sit down and talk as long as they are being threatened. In

Prior 89 French household sentiment worsened significantly in April with this being the lowest reading since May 2023. Of note, households’ opinion regarding their personal financial situation, both past and future, has clearly deteriorated. The index on the future financial situation fell to -20, marking its lowest estimate since March 2023. Inflation worries are evidently

Israel’s UN Ambassador Danon tells CNN the Lebanon ceasefire extension is “not 100%,” warning Hezbollah is firing rockets to sabotage the truce and the Lebanese government cannot control the group. (CNN/Truth Social). Summary: Trump announced via Truth Social that the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has been extended by three weeks following an Oval Office meeting The meeting

Trump announces Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extended three weeks (earlier news on this here) after Oval Office talks. Wednesday was a deadly day in Lebanon with five killed including a journalist. This despite the April 16 truce. Summary Ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel extended by three weeks following a White House meeting hosted by Trump Lebanese and

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan core CPI rose 1.8% y/y in March, matching forecasts but staying below BOJ’s 2% target for a second month. Iran war energy shock seen pushing inflation higher in coming months. Summary Japan CPI (March 2026): Headline rate 1.5% y/y (prior 1.3%) Core CPI (Ex-Food) 1.8% y/y (vs. expected 1.8%, prior 1.6%) Core-core CPI (Ex-Food

Japan FinMin Katayama warns of rising oil price speculation and vows decisive action in coordination with the US. Currency swap lines with Washington remain unchanged. Summary FinMin Katayama flagged a visible increase in speculative activity linked to oil prices Vowed decisive action on speculation, citing an existing agreement with the US as the basis Stressed

Japan inflation data for Match 2026. Headline rate 1.5% y/y (prior 1.3%) Core CPI (Ex-Food) 1.8% y/y (vs. expected 1.8%, prior 1.6%) Core-core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy) 2.4% y/y (prior 2.5%), slowest rise since December 2024 I’ll post separately on details and BOJ/yen implications. – A few weeks ago we had March Tokyo CPI: Tokyo

Axios is out with a report saying that Iran has deployed more mines in the Strait of Hormuz, citing “a US official and a source with knowledge of the issue.” That shines some light on Trump’s earlier post on Truth Social that said: I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Trump threatens fresh UK tariffs unless London drops its 2% digital services tax on large US tech platforms. The levy raises £800m annually and has survived prior UK-US trade talks. Trump has threatened tariffs on the UK unless it scraps its Digital Services Tax The DST is a 2% levy on revenues from large digital

I have no idea whether the US is lying about Iran’s negotiators fracturing or if Iran is lying. Either way, it’s not the kind of thing that should be happening on the way to peace. Here’s the message from the Supreme Leader, who is said to have lost a leg and had his face burned.

Trump’s explicit warning that Americans should brace for higher fuel costs carries meaningful inflationary implications. Energy prices feeding through to transport, logistics and consumer goods risk embedding a fresh layer of inflation at the margin, complicating the Fed’s rate path and pressuring household real incomes. The broader concern for markets is that a prolonged Hormuz

Trump says the Israel – Lebanon ceasefire will be extended by three weeks. Social media post. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

“Don’t rush me,” President Trump says when asked about Iran. “So were in Vietnam for 18 years. Iraq, many, many years….I’ve been doing this for…six weeks.” For what it’s worth, this is week nine. Trump says he has been speaking with Iran and they want a deal We got rid of the Iranian leadership.. and

I’m not sure if this is reflective of Trump doing his usual raging at the media or a sign that he’s increasingly hawkish. The market hasn’t taken it badly. For those people, fewer in number now than ever before, that are reading The Failing New York Times, or watching Fake News CNN, that think that

Prior 97 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

We are into the heart of earnings season and a few companies reported today that are solid bellwethers for the economy. There are positive signs of momentum so I wanted to highlight a few: Matt Flannery, President & CEO, United Rentals On overall demand and the year ahead: “The momentum we’re carrying into our busy

Trump posts on Truth Social: I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. There is to be no

The S&P 500 just hit a fresh record high. Futures had been down more than 50 points at one time but the S&P 500 is now up 5 points to 7143 and the Nasdaq is close to unchanged. In Europe, it’s been more of a struggle as oil prices stay elevated (Brent up $1.36 today

Pakistan has proposed opening the Strait in exchange for partial lifting of sanctions on Iran Trump cited Iran’s “fractured” leadership as the reason for extending the ceasefire but yesterday the White House said they knew they were negotiating with the right people. Now there’s this report and it adds up: Iran has insisted on peace

Risk trades are diving on a report from N12 about Ghalibaf leaving the negotiating team. N12 is the digital news brand of Keshet 12, an Israeli free-to-air television channel If anyone in the market was still holding out hope for a diplomatic off-ramp in the Middle East, it might be time to worry. We just

The euro is under broad pressure from geopolitical and growth headwinds, with large option expiry clusters the primary near-term anchor against a sharper selloff. Most EUR pairs trading heavy, weighed by Middle East standoff and growth concerns ECB on hold amid economic uncertainties; Germany has halved its growth forecasts Significant option expiry support: E14.2 billion

Traders ready to jump at shadows. And to hit stops 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The findings underscore the degree to which currency volatility, amplified by the Iran war, has become a primary risk management concern for Australian businesses and institutional investors. The sharp divergence in hedging behaviour between large and small corporates highlights a structural vulnerability, with smaller businesses carrying materially greater exposure to adverse AUD moves. For super

Headlines: The fragile optimism in markets hangs in the balance Gold remains under pressure amid US-Iran stalemate; traders await new catalysts The single chart for bitcoin long term investors shows bulls are fine Japan finance minister Katayama delivers another intervention warning France April flash services PMI 46.5 vs 48.5 expected Germany April flash manufacturing PMI

US crude stocks rose 1.9m barrels vs a 1.0m draw expected, driven by higher imports and weaker exports. However, gasoline (-4.6m) and distillate (-3.4m) draws signal firm demand, keeping the broader oil market backdrop supportive. From data published Wednesday morning US time. Earlier: Commodity traders reap billions as Iran war drives oil market volatility (ps.

Prior was 208K (revised to 207K) 4 week moving average of initial jobless claim 210.75K vs 210.0K last week Continuing claims 1,821M vs 1.820M expected Prior week 1.809M (revised from 1.818M) The data continues to show steady – no hire/no fire? – employment trends. Looking at the continuing claims, the advance number for seasonally adjusted

This from yesterday about US forces taking Itanian tankers in Asia: Maritime crackdown widens against Iran-linked shipping. Oil tanker seized in Indian Ocean Reuters have further now, in brief: Summary: US forces intercept and redirect multiple Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters At least 29 vessels ordered to turn back under expanding maritime blockade Strait

Trump on Truth Social: Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know! The infighting is between the “Hardliners,” who have been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the “Moderates,” who are not very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), is CRAZY! We have total control over

Market expectations for BoE interest rate hikes have increased following the release of the latest UK flash PMIs. The survey showed an acceleration in economic activity in April alongside a record-breaking surge in business costs. The agency noted though that “the improved rate of expansion is in part a reflection of a short-term boost from

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has come under renewed pressure on Tuesday after the markets got a bit scared following Iran’s refusal to participate in the Islamabad talks due to the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the losses were then pared after Trump extended the ceasefire to allow more time for Iran to

We have a “free hand” in conducting interventions Our deputies in US, Japan are in close contact on forex matters All we can say is that past interventions have made an impact The warning here isn’t anything new and it comes as we see USD/JPY inch closer towards the 160 mark once again this week.

Prior 52.2 Services PMI 46.9 vs 50.4 expected Prior 50.9 Composite PMI 48.3 vs 51.2 expected Prior 51.9 The US-Iran war is clearly weighing on economic activity as growth slows down further while inflation rises. The composite PMI fell into contraction for the first time since May 2025. The agency notes: “The recovery in the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has come under renewed pressure on Tuesday after the markets got a bit scared following Iran’s refusal to participate in the Islamabad talks due to the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the losses were then pared after Trump extended the ceasefire to allow more time for Iran to

Australia S&P Global PMI composite (April 2026 preliminary): 50.1 (prior 46.6) Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 (prior 49.8) Services PMI: 50.3 (prior 46.3) New orders fall again, highlighting weak domestic demand Cost inflation hits highest since Aug 2022 on fuel, freight surge Australia’s private sector returned to growth at the start of the second quarter, though the

Prior was 49.8 Manufacturing 54.0 vs 52.5 expected – -highest since May 2022 Prior manufacturing 52.4 Composite 52.0 vs 50.5 expected Composite prior was 51.4 Employment basically flat for a second month Input cost inflation at an 11-month high Output prices rising at the fastest pace since July 2022 This is a two-month high in

Tesla just released Q1 results and the headline is a clean beat on the bottom line, with a revenue miss that nobody is going to care about. Here’s the scorecard: Adjusted EPS: $0.41 vs. $0.34 expected — a 21% beat GAAP EPS: $0.13 vs. $0.12 a year ago Revenue: $22.39B vs. $22.64B expected — a

As oil prices continue to move up, there was a surprising rally in US stocks yesterday. But after some fake news chatter overnight, that is putting a dampener on the risk mood as we get into the new day. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.5% with the cautious optimism this week being uncovered to

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The manufacturing PMI data for April earlier reflected a good uptick in overall business activity. However, it belies the underlying situation as the “better” conditions were largely driven by firms bringing forward orders. The frontloading is mostly due to wanting to obuild safety stocks in anticipation of rising prices and supply constraints. The latest CBI

New Zealand Finance Minister on Iran war, Treasure forecastd: inflation could hit 7.4% in 25/26 under worst case scenario real GDP growth at 0.8% in 2025–26 under worst case scenario forecasts unemployment at 5.7% in 2025/26 under worst case scenario of oil at $180/barrel Adds: New Zealand economic recovery is delayed, not derailed High/y unlikely

Trump has not set a timeline for the extension of the ceasefire – report Iran President: Breach of commitments, blockade and threats are main obstacles to talks Trump touts that Iranian women he asked to be released won’t be executed Iran parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf: Complete ceasefire only makes sense without blockade US EIA weekly crude

Summary: Gold edges higher after hitting a two-week low, with bargain-hunting emerging Iran tensions persist as maritime incidents and US blockade continue Ceasefire extension tempers immediate escalation and oil shock risks Dollar direction remains key driver, competing with safe-haven demand Prices consolidate below resistance, with downside levels in focus Gold prices edged (barely) higher on

Prior was +0.4% m/m PPI +7.8% y/y vs 5.4% prior Raw materials price index +12.0% m/m vs +0.6% prior Raw materials price index +23.6% y/y vs +8.6% prior That’s not great on the PPI headline but downright scary on the raw materials price index. It’s not a big surprise given gasoline prices but that’s a

AI-linked stocks now account for nearly 45% of the S&P 500, up from ~25% in 2022, per Goldman Sachs. Strong earnings and momentum have driven concentration in mega-cap tech, increasing both upside potential and vulnerability to sentiment shifts. Summary: AI-linked stocks now account for ~45% of S&P 500, per Goldman Sachs Weighting has surged from

Bloomberg reported on commodity trading firms reaping gains. If these firms are not doing so at times like this they are not doing thier jobs. Summary: Major commodity traders post strongest profits since Ukraine war boom Dislocations in physical oil markets drive exceptional margins Reports of $20–$30 per barrel trading profits highlight extreme conditions Near-closure

The PMI data from the euro area today shows a significant contrast. While the industry sector held up in April, albeit with a caveat, the services sector struggled due to softer demand conditions amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Higher energy prices is starting to bite at both the French and German economies

Prior 48.8 Manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 49.5 expected Prior 50.0 Composite PMI 47.6 vs 48.6 expected Prior 48.8 French economic activity is seen contracting at its quickest pace in 14 months as the fallout from the Middle East conflict continues to bite at Europe’s second largest economy. That comes despite some positive news from the

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD with a heavy chunk layered between 1.1650 to 1.1700. As things stand, US-Iran headline risks continue to drive the market mood and dollar/trading sentiment along with it. That is the tail wagging

Australia’s PMIs are expected to remain in contraction today (the flash readings for April). PMIs returned to contraction in March as demand weakened and cost pressures surged. From Japan the picture for April is not expected to be so bleak. The focus today is once again on the war makers, not data. This article was

South Korea’s Q1 GDP rose 1.7% q/q and 3.6% y/y (exp. 2.7%, prev. 1.6%), beating forecasts. Growth was driven by a 5.1% surge in exports led by semiconductors, highlighting strong AI-linked demand and reliance on external drivers. Summary: Q1 GDP: +1.7% q/q (exp. +1.0%) → strongest since Q3 2020 Y/Y GDP: +3.6% (exp. +2.7%, prev.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Tesla posted $1.44bn Q1 free cash flow vs expected burn but flagged a sharp rise in capex to ~$25bn in 2026. The company expects negative free cash flow ahead as it ramps investment in AI, robotaxis and robotics, shifting focus to long-term growth. Summary: Q1 free cash flow: $1.44bn vs -$1.43bn expected → major upside

Japan’s composite PMI eased to 52.4 (exp. 51.4) as manufacturing surged to 54.9 but services slowed to 51.2. Strong factory output offset weaker domestic demand, while rising costs and falling confidence point to a more uneven growth outlook. Summary: Manufacturing PMI: 54.9 (exp. 51.8, prev. 51.6) → strong upside surprise Services PMI: 51.2 (exp. 52.0,

Reuters poll: Fed seen on hold through September as Middle East war drives inflation higher. 71 of 103 economists still expect one cut in 2026; nearly a third now forecast no cuts at all. Summary 56 of 103 economists expect Fed funds rate to hold at 3.50%-3.75% through September 71 of 103 still forecast at

Euro heavy across majors as Germany slashes growth outlook AUD: Australian pension funds rush to shield portfolios from Iran war currency shock Fed rate cuts pushed to late 2026 as Middle East war fuels inflation surge PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8650 (vs. estimate at 6.8294) Fake news (social media) on

Here is the bull case for stock markets right now: 1) Trump is bored of the war The war will end because Trump wants it to end, period. There are things to work out but Trump measures himself on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and rising gasoline prices are kryptonite for American politicians. I’d have

Bitcoin is supported by strong institutional demand, with a Coinbase survey showing 75% see it undervalued (up from 71% in December). ETF inflows hit $1.5bn in a week while ~$200m in shorts were liquidated, reinforcing a demand-driven rally. Summary: Coinbase survey shows strong institutional conviction Bitcoin is undervalued ~$200m in short liquidations highlights squeeze dynamics

From Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian: The Islamic Republic of Iran has welcomed dialogue and agreement and continues to do so. Breach of commitments, blockade and threats are main obstacles to genuine negotiations. World sees your endless hypocritical rhetoric and contradiction between claims and actions. There is fairly consistent messaging around this but there is still

Headlines: Iran seizes, attacks two cargo ships trying to cross Strait of Hormuz Trump tweets on Iran financial “collapse”, want to reopen Strait of Hormuz Oil prices jump on Iran’s refusal for talks, but consolidate on ceasefire extension Gold bounces back from overnight lows as the cautious optimism holds ECB’s Simkus: The ECB shouldn’t raise

This is a bit of a bizarre saga. Yesterday, Trump reposted a bit about 8 Iranian women who he said were scheduled to be hanged and he asked to release them. To the Iranian leaders, who will soon be in negotiations with my representatives: I would greatly appreciate the release of these women. I am

I think the 3-5 day timeline first reported was more of a ballpark anyway so I don’t really take this as a meaningful update. It seems like the US has decided to just wait and see what Iran will do next. The only real action we’ve had today is Iran firing on three cargo ships

It’s important to note that with all the MB Ghalibaf posts, that his twitter account appears to be run from Los Angeles by someone connected with him, not the man himself. That’s led to some bizarre posts about trading brent crude and it also calls into question a message like this that might be more

JPMorgan says China’s property market may be nearing a turning point, with stabilising prices and rising demand supporting the outlook for Chinese equities to outperform emerging markets. Summary: JPMorgan sees China property market nearing turning point Stabilisation could support Chinese equity outperformance New-home price declines slowing in March Used-home prices rise in 13 cities Hong

Morgan Stanley sees a tactical pause in European equities, warning sentiment is stretched and expecting choppy trading, while favouring stock picking with energy, banks and utilities outperforming. Summary: Morgan Stanley flags tactical pause in European equities Near-term choppiness expected during earnings season Sentiment seen as stretched after recent rally Optimism on Hormuz risks may be

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened a bit yesterday as traders turned more cautious heading into the expected US-Iran talks in Islamabad and the ceasefire deadline. The markets got scared at some point as it looked like the Islamabad talks were dead on arrival with Iran refusing to participate until the US blockade in

Sector Overview The US stock market today is witnessing a remarkable uplift, primarily driven by gains in the Technology and Consumer Cyclical sectors. The standout performer is the semiconductor sector, which is seeing significant activity. Micron Technology (MU) has soared by +5.09% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is not far behind with a gain of

Axios with the info. Trump is considering extending the Jones Act waiver after it boosted U.S. oil shipments by 70% and eased fuel costs, with over 9 million barrels moved by foreign tankers since March. Summary: Trump considering extending Jones Act waiver Waiver introduced to ease fuel costs during Iran war Foreign tankers boosted domestic

The New York Post texted President Trump to ask about the possibility of renewed mediation efforts and talks within the next 36-72 hours and he responded: “It’s possible! President DJT.” Signing texts is a strange one but I wouldn’t run too far with this report. Perhaps the more notable part is that it cited “Pakistani

Prior was -913K Gasoline -4570K vs -1494K expected Distillates -3427K vs -2458K expected API data from late yesterday: Crude -4400K Gasoline -5165K Distillates -4590K For background, the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, is the most closely watched read on U.S. oil and refined product inventories and a key

The bitcoin chart is interesting today. A nice base has formed in the 60-65K range and now it’s broken out, chewing into the February rout. Bitcoin daily chart: The rise today above last week’s high is a positive signal but it’s not clear if that’s a leading or lagging indicator. There was once a strong

US tightens grip on Iraq over Iran-linked groups, halt dollar flows over militia activity JPMorgan sees China property stabilising, boosting outlook for equities. Morgan Stanley flags pause in European equities, sees stock pickers market Japan exports beat but rising import costs squeeze trade surplus PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8635 (vs. estimate at

Even with the dollar’s recent slump, the yen is unable to get off the floor too as Japan continues to suffer heavily from the Middle East conflict. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is hitting Asian countries hard and Japan is one to be impacted quite badly in all of this. That has already

The precious metal fell in overnight trading amid a setback to US-Iran developments to start the week. Traders were holding out some optimism with hope for both sides to sit down for talks in Pakistan today. However, that has fallen apart and there is still no firm timeline or agenda of when we will see

Prior was -16.3 The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) is the European Commission’s flagship monthly gauge of household sentiment across the 21 euro-area members and is one of the most closely watched real-time reads on the region’s economy. Compiled by the Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), the index is built from

IRGC-linked Tasnim said the continuation of the naval blockade amounts to an ongoing state of conflict, adding that Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the blockade remains in place, and warning it is prepared to break the blockade by force if required. Earlier: Trump says will extend ceasefire for now – more

Sees 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% vs 1.0% previously Sees 2027 GDP at 0.9% vs 1.3% previously Expects inflation to rise to 2.7% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027 Expects flat exports this year, up 1.3% in 2027 Recovery again held back by external shocks The Bundesbank was out with some comment earlier: “The negative

The headline is via Bloomberg, in citing Tasnim News Agency which is affiliated with the IRGC. If true, then it is good news as it creates an incentive for Iran to come to the negotiating table. For now, the ceasefire looks to be extended as per US president Trump’s announcement. However, further talks look to

Uncertainty arising from the Middle East conflict is very high But from the data that we currently see, there is no urgency to raise interest rates just yet We are not in a rush We still have the large luxury of collecting data and forming our view But if necessary, we will of course move

Trump with some late evening social media activity. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened a bit yesterday as traders turned more cautious heading into the expected US-Iran talks in Islamabad and the ceasefire deadline. The markets got scared at some point as it looked like the Islamabad talks were dead on arrival with Iran refusing to participate until the US blockade in

Iran appears to be sticking to its line about a blockage, but you never know what’s really happening behind the scenes. Here is the latest from the foreign minister on twitter: Blockading Iranian ports is an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire. Striking a commercial vessel and taking its crew hostage

Key takeaways for today’s bitcoin traders (and some of you longer term bitcoin buyers wondering if bitcoin is a buy) Bitcoin has improved from bullish repair into a real breakout test. The most important immediate pivot is now $78,250. A stronger bullish case opens if BTC can close and hold above $78,250, and ideally above

Here is a translated post just out from Tasnim’s Telegram channel, it’s lifting oil but it just hit: Iran’s decision not to attend Wednesday’s meeting in Pakistan is final; what is the reason? According to information obtained by a Tasnim correspondent: Despite all the media hype and speculation by U.S. officials and outlets, the Iranian

Summary: U.S. seizes Iranian-linked tanker near Sri Lanka Enforcement expands far beyond Persian Gulf Stateless tanker tied to Iranian oil flows Second interdiction in two days Links to China highlight ongoing trade routes AIS “dark activity” used to evade tracking Move signals global reach of U.S. sanctions The United States has escalated its maritime enforcement

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1760 and 1.1790-00 levels. The currency pair has been looking a little heavier since overnight trading, as the risk mood retreats slightly as US-Iran developments continue to hit a roadblock. The expiries

Japan exports rose 11.7% y/y in March, beating forecasts, but a smaller trade surplus and rising import costs highlight growing risks from energy prices and supply disruptions. Summary: Exports +11.7% y/y, beat expectations, seventh straight gain Imports +10.9% y/y, well above forecasts Trade surplus ¥667B, below expectations Strong demand from China, modest US growth Higher

Prior +3.0% Core CPI +3.1% vs +3.2% y/y expected Prior +3.2% UK headline annual inflation picked up in March as higher energy price inflation feeds into price pressures on the month. The monthly estimate sees a 0.7% jump in headline inflation, with transport prices being the main driver. Of note, transport prices were seen up

Over 30 countries will meet in London to advance military plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, focusing on deployment and command structures, with any mission contingent on a sustainable ceasefire. Summary: 30+ countries to hold London talks on Hormuz reopening Focus shifts from diplomacy to military planning UK-France led mission gaining international backing 50

Wall Street Journal (gated) report. The U.S. halted dollar shipments to Iraq and paused security support, increasing pressure on Baghdad to curb Iran-backed militias and highlighting Washington’s financial leverage over Iraqi oil revenues. Summary: U.S. halts dollar shipments to Iraq ~$500M delivery blocked, second since war began Security cooperation and training programs paused Pressure tied

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

JPMorgan says the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is bearish for the dollar, re-entering selective USD shorts and favouring high-yielding currencies like AUD, NZD and EM FX as geopolitical risk eases. Summary: JPMorgan sees U.S.-Iran ceasefire as USD-negative Re-enters USD shorts with more selective approach Focus shifts to carry-efficient positioning Sticky inflation supports high-yielding currencies Commodity FX and

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 6bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s Leading Index fell to –0.13% in March, slipping below trend for the first time since August, signalling softer growth ahead as higher rates and energy shocks weigh on activity. Summary: Leading Index falls to –0.13% in March (from +0.05%) First below-trend reading since August last year Signals weaker growth outlook into late 2026 Momentum

Summary: JPMorgan lifts S&P 500 target to 7,600 (from 7,200) Implies ~7% upside from current levels EPS forecasts raised for 2026 and 2027 AI and tech earnings drive bullish outlook Ceasefire supports sentiment and risk appetite Near-term consolidation risk flagged Upside to ~8,000 possible in bullish scenario JPMorgan has raised its year-end target for the

Japan’s trade balance recorded a surplus of ¥667.0B in March (expected ¥1,106B, prior ¥57.3B) imports increased 10.9% y/y (exp. 7.1%, prior 10.2%) exports rose 11.7% y/y (exp. 11.0%, prior 4.2%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There was unease in the market all day despite Donald Trump starting the day with a call to CNBC that was somewhat reassuring on the war. Warsh’s comments were not market moving and the retail sales report was ignored. It was all about Iran and the market sniffed trouble as the day went on before

Trump’s latest: The war of words continues. It does appear both sides don’t want to restart shooting. Vance seems to be restraining Trump for now. Can that last? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Its just a cavalcade of headlines. The latest is that a White House official says Vance’s trip to Pakistan will not be happening on Tuesday. So what. Maybe he leaves Wednesday, I dunno? Trump offered a ceasefire. Iran is thinking about it. IRGC says Hormuz will remain closed until blockade ends. And so, we wait.

If you are doing some catch up, oil prices had a very volatile ride in the US afternoon. As it happened: Oil up on … Iran’s decision not to attend Wednesday’s meeting is final – Tasnim Oil down on … Trump says will extend ceasefire for now Since then: Iran has not yet accepted Trump’s

Canada’s trade negotiator says USMCA review is a checkpoint, not a cliff, and warns not all US trade issues will be resolved by July 1, with Ottawa focused on protecting the deal while seeking tariff relief. Summary: Canada sees July 1 USMCA review as a checkpoint, not a deadline No expectation all US trade disputes

From Associated Press UN Correspondent Farnoush Amiri: Amir Saeid Iravani, Iran’s UN envoy, tells reporters Tuesday afternoon that the U.S. has privately indicated to Iranians that it would soon lift its blockade, which is a demand Tehran has made for returning to the negotiations in Islamabad That’s great news but a separate report says that

The headline is via Reuters in citing Iran’s state media as saying that no delegation has yet departed for Pakistan to attend peace talks. This sort of political positioning by Iran isn’t anything new. We have seen it already just before the first round of talks in Islamabad. The grandstanding looks more to do with

BOJ is likely to hold rates in April amid Middle East uncertainty, Reuters reports, but signal readiness to hike as soon as June as inflation rises and growth risks increase. Summary: BOJ seen holding rates in April amid Middle East uncertainty Decision viewed as close call, dependent on geopolitics Market pricing for April hike drops

Yesterday, Trump himself said VP JD Vance was on his way to Pakistan but that turned out not to be true. Now, Axios reports that he’s still in Washington, citing a White House official. “Additional policy meetings are taking place at the White House today in which the Vice President will participate,” the official said.

IEA chief backs a Basra-Ceyhan pipeline to bypass Hormuz, boost Iraq export resilience and strengthen Europe’s energy security, as Turkey pushes broader ambitions to become a regional oil and gas transit hub. Summary: IEA chief backs Basra–Ceyhan pipeline to bypass Hormuz chokepoint Iraq heavily reliant on Hormuz for ~90% of oil exports Project seen as

That’s not a good sign. Trump today indicated Iran would be attending so it’s not clear who has been told what, or if Iran is grandstanding for the domestic audience. Some reports have said they already have a large delegation there. Formal response from Iran still awaited Pakistan is in constant touch with Iranians about

The war is turning into yet-another mess. Several reports from Pakistan have said that the ceasefire ends at 4:50 am ET Pakistan time, which is 7:50 pm New York time today. However in an interview with Bloomberg yesterday, Trump himself said it expires on “Wednesday evening Washington time.” That’s presumably a day later. With news

The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain the policy rate at 0.75% at its upcoming meeting on April 27–28, 2026. While inflationary pressures remain a concern for policymakers, they are prioritizing stability amid the significant geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Several reports suggest the central bank is leaning toward a “wait-and-see” approach, opting to gather

The four-week average of hiring jumped in the week ending April 4 to 54.75K. That’s the highest since the survey was launched in September. These are high-frequency numbers so they’re prone to large adjustments but if employment continues to rise, there is little chance of the Fed cutting rates. For background, the NER Pulse is

Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to boost US oil production, refining and logistics, enabling federal funding and faster project approvals to strengthen energy security amid rising geopolitical risks. Summary: Trump invokes Defense Production Act to boost US energy capacity Petroleum infrastructure formally designated as critical to national defense Government can fund, guarantee or directly

NZ business confidence fell sharply in Q1 as Hormuz disruptions lifted uncertainty. Activity held steady but hiring and investment weakened. Inflation pressures remain contained, with RBNZ still expected to begin tightening later this year. New Zealand Q1 business confidence -4% vs 48% prior New Zealand Q1 capacity utilisation 91.2% vs 89.8% prior Summary: Business confidence

Sector Overview: Tech and Consumer Cyclical Provide Lift The US stock market today showcases a resilient tech sector, with significant gains driven by Microsoft (MSFT), which is up 1.89%. This upward movement underscores a positive sentiment surrounding software infrastructure stocks, supported further by Oracle (ORCL), showing a solid 3.07% increase. The consumer cyclical sector also

We are still dealing with the legacy of the policy errors in 2021 and 2022 Once you let inflation take hold, it’s harder to bring down We need fundamental policy reforms to fix inflation Inflation is less severe but Americans are still feeling it Says he wants a new inflation framework We need new tools

Prior was +0.6% Ex-autos +1.9% vs +1.4% expected Prior ex autos +0.5% Ex autos and gas ++0.6% vs +0.4% prior (revised to +0.2%) Control group +0.7% vs +0.2% expected Prior control +0.5% Retail sales y/y +% vs +3.7% prior Never underestimate the spending power of the US consumer. That’s two solid data points today ahead

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos suggests the central bank has to maintain a “cool head” and be cautious on interest rates adjustments amid the geopolitical uncertainty. While headline inflation has recently spiked to 2.6% due to the US-Iran war, core inflation moderated further towards the 2% target (2.3% in March). The ECB projections suggest

A couple of data points from New Zealand today. NZIER Survey of Business Opinion (Q1) Westpac notes the Q1 NZIER Survey of Business Opinion points to a fragile recovery backdrop, with headline confidence improving modestly but underlying activity still soft. Firms reported a slight lift in expected own activity, suggesting conditions may be stabilising after

Prior -0.5 Current conditions -73.7 vs -70.0 expected Prior -62.9 That’s the worst reading since December 2022 as the fallout from the US-Iran conflict continues to weigh heavily on German investor morale. Surging energy prices is the key issue and that’s reverberating across to many parts of the economy, even with gas prices coming off

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.1760 and 1.1800 levels. The technical snapshot for the currency pair right now is that price action is settling between some key near-term levels. The floor is set out

Westpac sees the US dollar weakening as markets look through Middle East risks, with improving trade flows and global growth expected to support EUR, GBP and emerging market currencies. Summary: USD struggling to rally despite Middle East tensions Markets pricing gradual normalisation in shipping flows Westpac sees sustained USD downtrend ahead Euro, sterling, yen and

This is very much a formality process but Warsh still has to play his part in keeping appearances to get officially be confirmed as Fed chair. The testimony is just the hearing before lawmakers with everything else already settled. It’s now a question of when with the investigation probe on Powell still ongoing. That is

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold rallied on Friday following a barrage of positive news on the US-Iran front that seemed to point to an imminent deal after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The positive price action reversed heading into the weekend though after Trump said that the US would keep the blockade of

Silver consolidates above a key support ahead of ceasefire deadline; eyes on US-Iran talks BoJ to hold rates steady in April – Nikkei Germany April ZEW economic sentiment -17.2 vs -5.0 expected ECB’s de Guindos: ECB has to keep cool head, be cautious on rates Iran state media says that no delegation has yet departed

Westpac sees US dollar weakening as markets look through energy shock and tensions Recapping – NZD rises after CPI beat as markets price higher odds of May RBNZ rate hike Japan fin min says closely monitoring financial markets, will take measure if needed China shows resilience to energy shock but weak demand limits growth outlook,

NZ CPI held at 3.1% y/y in Q1, above target, with electricity and petrol driving gains. Quarterly inflation rose 0.9%, underscoring persistent price pressures and supporting expectations for a cautious RBNZ policy stance. This is January – March data, ahead of the fuel shock. Bear that in mind… Summary: Annual CPI holds at 3.1%, above

Japan finmin Katayama: Seeing high volatility in financial markets, closely watching with high sense of vigilance Continue to closely monitor financial markets, will take measures if needed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump tweeting, is he laying the ground work for a deal not involving getting the dust? Operation Midnight Hammer was a complete and total obliteration of nuclear dust sites in Iran Digging nuclear dust sites in Iran out will be a long and difficult process This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump is out with a lengthy post on Truth Social: The DEAL that we are making with Iran will be FAR BETTER than the JCPOA, commonly referred to as “The Iran Nuclear Deal,” penned by Barack Hussein Obama and Sleepy Joe Biden, one of the Worst Deals ever made having to do with the Security

BOJ survey shows flat loan demand and stable credit conditions, pointing to weak domestic momentum and supporting a cautious, gradual policy tightening path despite persistent inflation pressures. Summary: Loan demand broadly flat across firms, households and governments Credit conditions stable, neither tightening nor easing materially Manufacturing relatively resilient; smaller firms weaker Household demand mixed, consumer

Shuffling at Apple. Effective September 1, 2026 Tim Cook to become Apple executive chairman, will assist with certain aspects of co, including engaging with policymakers around the world John Ternus, currently senior VP of hardware engineering, to become Apple CEO This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NZD rose after a stronger CPI print lifted expectations for a May RBNZ hike, while bond yields jumped and business confidence weakened, highlighting a growing tension between inflation pressures and slowing growth. Summary: NZD rises after stronger-than-expected CPI Q1 inflation beats, annual CPI holds above target Markets price ~45% chance of May RBNZ hike Bond

With the amount of headlines crossing, the misinformation and disinformation, I’m not sure we managed to gather all too much yesterday. The bottom line is that Iran has returned to maintaining a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the weekend. And after, Tehran officials are maintaining a hard line in their negotiating

Fitch says China remains resilient to global energy shocks but weak consumer demand is limiting growth, with fiscal deficits staying elevated and risks rising if energy disruptions hit trade and manufacturing. Summary: China seen resilient to global energy shock Domestic consumption remains weak, confidence subdued No near-term acceleration in household demand Fiscal deficit to remain

Prior 5.2% Employment change 25k vs 35k expected Prior 84k Average weekly earnings +3.8% vs +3.6% 3m/y expected Prior +3.9%; revised to +4.1% Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.6% vs +3.5% 3m/y expected Prior +3.8% March payrolls change -11k Prior 20k; revised to -6k The standout number is the one in the headline, which sees

This is via the Wall Street Journal conveying Kevin Warsh’s views. On inflation he clearly speaks with forked tongue. Inflation in the US has been creeping higher over the past year, above the Bank’s 2% target. All this time Warshy has been calling for rate cuts. LOL. Summary: Warsh says Fed independence depends on internal

Pakistan has reportedly urged both Washington and Tehran to prolong the ceasefire by a further two weeks, while local media suggest Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif could formally announce an extension as early as Tuesday, according to Al Arabiya. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China signalled readiness to advance talks on upgrading its Switzerland FTA, aiming to expand cooperation into services, digital trade and investment, reinforcing support for open trade amid global protectionist pressures. Summary: China signals willingness to advance China–Switzerland FTA upgrade Talks aim for “high-standard” agreement covering services and digital economy Existing 2014 FTA already removes most

US stocks fell on Monday to halt a 13-day winning streak in the Nasdaq but the fall was hardly a retracement as the index declined by just 0.3% after a monster, 15% rally since the final day of March. The trigger for the selling (as if one was needed) was the failure of Friday’s announcement

This is just a data post. New Zealand Q1 consumer price index +0.9% q/q (expected +0.8%, prior +0.6%) +3.1% vs year ago (expected +2.9%, prior +3.1%) Non-tradables +1.1% q/q Non-tradables +3.5% y/y A shorthand way of thinking about ‘non tradeables’ is domestically generated inflation. I’ll have more to come on this separately, details and implications.

Iran’s top negotiator (Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf) rejected negotiations conducted under threat, saying Trump is attempting to shift talks into what he described as a “table of surrender.” Earlier: Pakistan may announce US-Iran ceasefire extension of 2 weeks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump: My deal will be better than JCPOA Trump: I’m winning the war by a lot Trump says ceasefire will end Wednesday, won’t open Strait until deal is signed Warsh to tell Congress he’s committed to ensuring monetary policy is strictly independent Canada’s Q1 Business Outlook Survey: sentiment bounces back, then the Middle East happened

At some point the dust will settle on the Iran war and I expect the Canadian dollar to be a beneficiary. Yes, that will mean lower oil prices and that will weaken Canada’s top export but the war has also exposed one-fifth of the world’s oil to be at risk of supply disruption. With that

More from Trump: I’m winning a War, BY A LOT, things are going very well, our Military has been amazing and, if you read the Fake News, like The Failing New York Times, the absolutely horrendous and disgusting Wall Street Journal, or the now almost defunct, fortunately, Washington Post, you would actually think we are

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 eventually reached a new all-time highs after a crazy rally since the start of April on growing expectations of an end to the war. The playbook has been very similar to April 2025 when we first get Trump backtracking on tariffs (this time Trump started talking about ceasefire) and then

The ceasefire is scheduled to end late today after 14 days but if talks are scheduled for Wednesday then presumably that will be extended. That said, I don’t know how good CNN’s reporting is here because an hour ago, Trump spoke to the New York Post and said the US delegation was on the way

I don’t take this as a meaningful headline but oil prices are ticking lower on it. A US plane arrived in Islamabad today’ that presumably carrying JD Vance. He wouldn’t be going there if Iran hadn’t already agreed to talks, despite some of the rhetoric that’s been floating around. Update: Trump confirms that Vance is

Pakistan Army Chief Munir spoke to Trump, told him Hormuz blockade is hurdle to talks Trump told Munir he would consider his advice A senior Pakistani security source has confirmed that Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir held a conversation with US President Trump regarding the escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. During

Tech downturn: Energy pops while semiconductor sector struggles The stock market witnessed a turbulent day as tech giants found themselves in decline, while the energy sector shone brightly. The market displayed mixed signals, manifesting the volatile and uncertain dynamics of today’s trading landscape. 📉 Technology Sector: Clouds Over Semiconductors Semiconductors: Once again, the semiconductor sector

It’s going to be another messy week, innit? Hopes for peace talks did not last long as Iran refused any concessions with the US continuing to maintain its military presence in the region. Tehran was not happy with the naval blockade still put in place, thus deciding to “close” the Strait of Hormuz again. That

Headlines: Are markets waiting for Trump to come to the rescue once again? Oil prices rebound on escalating US-Iran tensions as ceasefire deadline approaches Iran continues to reaffirm that US demands have been “unserious” and “unrealistic” Differences over nuclear programme remains unresolved, says senior Iranian official Pakistan Army Chief Munir spoke to Trump, told him

Trump says it’s ‘highly unlikely’ he will extend negotiations and that he won’t open the Strait until a deal is signed. He said a meeting “could benefit everyone involved”. Tasnim reports at the same time that Iran isn’t keen to participate in negotiations, and that they are a waste of time. Al Jazeera reports: Tehran

This Iran war saga is unlike anything in modern markets. The amount of information, disinformation and utter nonsense is unprecedented. It’s a cesspit of information that’s nearly impossible to swim through without being dragged down into an abyss of uncertainty and second guessing. The market today is ignoring the collapse of Friday’s heralded reopening of

More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.5% CPI m/m +0.9% vs +1.1% expected Prior CPI m/m +0.5% Core measures: BOC core 2.5% vs 2.3% prior BOC core m/m +0.2% vs +0.4% prior Core CPI 0.0% m/m +0.2% vs prior CPI median +2.3% vs +2.3% expected (prior was 2.3%) CPI trim +2.2% vs 2.3% expected (prior was 2.3%) CPI common

There are just a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 level. The expiries hold close by to the 200-hour moving average of 1.1740 and may yet just play a role in terms of keeping price action more sticky in European

US futures trade is open for the new week, gaps: S&P500 futures -1%, NQ also Brent +7% CL +7% Early FX rates indicated the moves, as usual: Monday open FX (unlike the closed Strait of Hormuz). Indicative rates 20 April 2026. Oil and equity index futures open at the top of the hour. Early FX

The report cites two Pakistani officials in saying that “Iranian authorities have expressed willingness to send a delegation for a second round of talks in Islamabad this week”. Adding that there is “cautious optimism” between the US and Iran but could not share details of travel plans for either side due to security reasons. Iran

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar extended the losses on Friday following a barrage of positive news on the US-Iran front that seemed to point to an imminent deal after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The greenback eventually erased the losses heading into the weekend after Trump said that the US

US envoy Waltz said all options, including strikes on Iran infrastructure, remain on the table ahead of talks, signalling continued pressure and keeping escalation risks elevated despite diplomatic efforts. Summary: The United States stepped up its messaging campaign over the weekend, with Ambassador Mike Waltz delivering a coordinated series of interviews and statements that reinforced

The March data shows: Producer prices (monthly) +2.5% m/m Producer prices (annual) -0.2% y/y That isn’t a surprise with the jump being largely from a sharp increase in prices for almost all energy products. Mind you, the year-on-year figure was -3.3% in February. So, the lower natural gas and electricity prices in the preceding months

We moved back to more aggression in the Gulf over the weekend: Monday open FX (unlike the closed Strait of Hormuz). Indicative rates 20 April 2026. Early FX indicated the USD higher and therefore risk off. As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres

Trump has tweeted that US Marines have boarded an Iranian ship. Trump sent the message ut on his own social media app, driving views and revenue. US CENTCOM have not confirmed this action by Marines. Iran has denied it. But Trump has confirmed it, leaving little doubt. Earlier: Trump tweeted that Iran violated the ceasefire:

It is reported that Pakistan has intensified its diplomatic contacts since Sunday so as to try and get the US and Iran to sit down for talks “as soon as Tuesday”. In case you missed the headlines over the weekend, US president Trump said that he was still optimistic about a deal. And that is

The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has historically been China’s main benchmark lending rate, introduced in its current form in August 2019 as part of broader interest rate reform. It is set monthly based on submissions from a panel of commercial banks and is intended to reflect the actual borrowing costs faced by the real economy,

Here is a look at the companies reporting this week, with a particular focus on the macro. It’s all likely to be overshadowed by the Middle East but hopefully the war ends and we can get back to earnings fundamentals. Monday, April 20 After close: Steel Dynamics, Alaska Air Quiet start to the week. STLD

The report says that the BOJ is likely to hold off from raising interest rates in April next week, as heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict continues to put policymakers off from wanting to rush a decision. The sources claim that the central bank is leaning towards keeping policy unchanged in order to size

UAE held talks with the US on a potential financial backstop as war disrupts oil exports and dollar flows, with officials even raising yuan use in a stress scenario, signalling rising financial risks in the Gulf. Summary: UAE exploring US financial backstop amid war risks Currency swap line discussed but not formally requested Oil export

Summary: South Korea’s Lee visits India for first time in eight years Target to double trade to $50bn by 2030 Focus on shipbuilding, AI, finance, defence cooperation Supply chain risks driving closer ties Korea seeks more naphtha from India Trade imbalance remains a key issue South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is set to meet

Iran’s top joint military command: U.S. violated ceasefire by firing at one of Iran’s commercial ships Iran will soon respond and retaliate against this ‘Maritime and armed robbery’ by U.S. military CopyReferring to: Trump reveals classified Iran war information, again. US Marines’ location tweeted out. Coming up: Oil and equity index futures open at the

The highlight for Monday will be Canada’s CPI release. This will be followed by New Zealand’s inflation data on Tuesday, which will be a busy day. The U.K. will publish the claimant count change, average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate while the U.S. will get the ADP employment change, retail sales m/m and

Posting some of the majors, use our app to check markets you are interested in. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Coming up: PBoC rate setting (doesn’t matter) — The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under

The brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz barely lasted a day. That before Iran’s military decided to shut down passage of the waterway again as Tehran is dissatisfied with the continued US naval blockade. After that, US president Trump said that he was still optimistic that a deal could get done but not before

US proposals have been ‘unserious’, and its demands ‘unrealistic’ Tehran has clearly stated its demands and will not change them We do not believe in deadlines or ultimatums when it comes to safeguarding national interests Tehran is definitely being quite vocal about the situation here to start the new week. Adding to this is that

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar extended the losses on Friday following a barrage of positive news on the US-Iran front that seemed to point to an imminent deal after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The greenback eventually erased the losses heading into the weekend after Trump said that the US

Differences over nuclear programme remain unresolved The gaps have not narrowed Continuation of US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz undermines efforts for peace talks At the same time, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson is also out in saying that “there is no plan for a second round of negotiations with the US for now”. Well,

Progress seen but core issues divide US and Iran India and South Korea target $50bn trade as both seek deeper economic ties Carney says Canada must reduce US reliance as tariffs reshape trade outlook Some, not all, of the Monday morning gaps are filling. Oil, no. Equites, NO. FX, some. PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices plunged on Friday following a barrage of positive news. It all started with an Axios report saying that under a compromise proposal under discussion, some of the highly Iran’s enriched uranium would be shipped to a third country, not necessarily the US, and some of it would be down-blended in Iran

New Zealand monthly trade suprlus for March 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US-Iran gaps are said to have narrowed, but disputes over nuclear limits, uranium stockpiles, Hormuz access and sanctions relief remain unresolved, keeping prospects for a deal uncertain and risks to energy markets elevated. Summary: Pakistan sources say US-Iran gaps narrowing Nuclear programme remains core disagreement US wants uranium custody; Iran rejects Hormuz blockade vs restrictions

Earlier: PBOC leaves loan prime rates unchanged, as expected. – The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The one-year LPR serves as the primary benchmark for most lending in China, particularly corporate loans, short-term business financing, and some consumer credit. It effectively acts as the core pricing reference for credit in the real economy and is the key rate to watch when policymakers aim to support growth. By contrast, the five-year LPR

Summary: US seizes Iranian cargo ship attempting to breach blockade Iran threatens retaliation, labels move “armed piracy” Tehran rejects second round of peace talks Pakistan mediation efforts continue but outlook weak Hormuz transit remains unstable despite brief reopening Oil rebounds sharply as disruption risk persists Earlier: US futures, Globex, open for the new week’s trade.

Iran says Hormuz security isn’t free while exports are restricted, as UAE warns 600m barrels blocked and rejects “protection racket” claims, highlighting deepening divide over oil access and rising global cost risks. Summary: Iran ties Hormuz security to ability to export oil freely Warns global costs will rise without equal market access UAE says ~600m

Canada PM Carney said US ties are now a weakness as tariffs rise, signalling a push to diversify trade and investment amid growing economic uncertainty and tensions with Washington. Summary: Carney says US ties now a “weakness,” not strength Points to surge in US tariffs and protectionism Canada to diversify trade and attract new investment

Sen. Tillis blocks Trump’s Fed nominee Warsh until a DOJ probe into Powell concludes, creating a Senate deadlock and raising concerns over Fed independence as leadership uncertainty builds. Wall Street Journal (gated) with the info so far. Summary: Tillis blocking Fed nominee Warsh until Powell probe ends Creates effective deadlock in Senate Banking Committee Trump

Welcome to another fog of war week. The current situation has taken a tilt for the worse after the optimism of late last week. Weekend: Iran says that Strait of Hormuz is closed once again, situation returns to previous state Trump tells reporter he still thinks he can get a deal with Iran, says “it

Mon: BoC SCE (Apr), Chinese LPR (Apr), German PPI (Mar), Canadian Inflation (Mar), New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (Q1), New Zealand Inflation (Q1) Tue: Eurogroup Foreign Affairs Council (Apr), UK Jobs (Feb), German/EZ ZEW Sentiment Index (Apr), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US Retail Sales (Mar), US Pending Home Sales (Mar), Warsh Senate Hearing Wed:

Once again, it’s been a crazy weekend for the US-Iran war as it looked (looks?) like the whole thing could fall apart. First, the opening of the Strait on Friday turned out to be a false start at best as Iran reversed it after the US refused to lift its blockade. Then, Iran fired on

Iran has come out with a statement that the US has failed to live up to their end of the bargain. And as such, the Iranian military has moved to “close” the Strait of Hormuz once again. Iran is claiming that the US “did not fulfill their obligations” as the naval blockade is still ongoing.