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Dollar positioning has reached its most negative level on record in Bank of America’s survey, reflecting broad expectations of US softness and potential Fed easing, with labour market risks seen as the main catalyst for further weakness. Summary: Investor positioning in the US dollar has fallen to its most negative level since at least January

Sentiment is one of the best market indicators out there. In fact, I’d argue that the only reason to be on the stock market internet is to get news and — perhaps more importantly — to gauge sentiment. I don’t think I’ve ever felt it was so tough to figure out where sentiment really lies.

Gold stays rangebound amid Chinese holiday and lack of catalysts. What’s next? Germany February ZEW economic sentiment index 58.3 vs 65.2 expected RBNZ preview: risk of disappointment given the high expectations AI bubble top tail risk, long gold most crowded trade according to BofA survey Germany January final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim UK

Japan’s 5-year JGB auction drew steady demand with a 3.10 bid-to-cover ratio and a modestly tighter tail, though participation was slightly softer compared with stronger sales last year. Japan sold ¥1.89 trillion of 5-year JGBs with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.10 (vs 3.08 prior). Stop rate (highest accepted yield) came in at 1.646%, average yield

The USDJPY has spent the last four trading days rotating in a defined up-and-down range, reflecting a market that is consolidating rather than trending. The low for the move was established last Thursday, and since that time the pair has carved out a pattern of progressively higher lows. That subtle shift in structure suggests that

The price of Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase since rebounding from the February 6th low near $59,930. After the sharp decline from the January 28th high near $90,352, the market managed to recover approximately 38.2% of that prior drop — a key Fibonacci retracement level that often acts as resistance in corrective bounces.

Prior was 37 Current single-family home sales 41 vs 41 prior Prospective buyers 22 vs 23 prior Home sales expectations over the next six months 46 vs 49 prior It’s curious that home builder stocks hit a record on Friday via the XHB ETF. The market is looking way ahead towards a lowering of interest

ING expects the RBNZ to hold in February 18 but signal a more hawkish stance as inflation surprises to the upside, forecasting two hikes from 3Q and medium-term NZD strength. Summary of their views below. Earlier: RBNZ expected to hold rates as higher food price inflation adds limited pressure Likely RBNZ on hold decision February

The two parties will work on potential agreement documents and exchange them Two parties still have topics on which they still need to work This does not mean that we will reach an agreement soon but the path was started Oil is down $1 on the headlines. This article was written by Adam Button at

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EUR/USD 1.2000 (EUR 940.83 mn) 1.1900 (EUR 1.34 bn) 1.1700 (EUR 975.72 mn) USD/JPY 156.00 (US$ 1.95 bn) 151.00 (US$ 1.09 bn) GBP/USD 1.3560 (GBP 766.08 mn) USD/CHF 0.7730 (US$ 694.69 mn) USD/CAD 1.3600 (US$ 1.02 bn) 1.3500 (US$ 973.00 mn) AUD/USD 0.7025 (AUD 449.18 mn) NZD/USD 0.6100 (NZD 140.98 mn) 0.5975 (NZD 196.92 mn)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% tomorrow. Alongside the decision, we’ll also get the latest Monetary Policy Statement and updated economic projections. Analysts expect the central bank to signal an earlier start to rate hikes, with the first increase seen in

Today’s stock market reflects a volatile landscape with a notable downturn in the technology sector, highlighted by declines in major companies and mixed results across various industries. 🔍 Sector Overview The technology sector is experiencing a challenging day, with software and semiconductor giants facing significant declines. Notably, Oracle (ORCL) decreased by 1.85% and Microsoft (MSFT)

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Oil prices remain steady as Iran’s Strait of Hormuz drills heighten supply risk ahead of US nuclear talks, while OPEC+ output decisions and prospects for diplomatic progress temper upside. Summary: Oil prices steady as Iran conducts naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz ahead of US nuclear talks. President Donald Trump signals indirect involvement in

In EURUSD last week, sellers leaned against the 50% retracement of the decline from the late-January high to the early-February low at 1.19230. The high on Tuesday reached 1.1928, with additional swing highs at 1.1926–1.1925, effectively stalling upside momentum. Buyers had their opportunity — and they failed. That rejection set the tone for Wednesday’s slide,

Details: New orders 5.8 vs 6.6 prior Shipments -1.0 vs 16.3 prior Employment 4.0 vs -9.0 prior Average employee workweek 2.1 versus -5.4 prior Prices paid 49.1 vs 42.8 prior Prices received 22.2 vs 14.4 prior Unfilled orders 9.1 vs -8.2 prior Delivery times 4.0 vs 0.0 prior Inventories 7.1 vs -2.1 prior Supply availability

Wants some evididence that inflation is headed back to 2% Considers a 3% policy rate a ‘loose’ estimate of neutral There are potentially ‘several’ more rate cuts if progress on inflation resumes Goods with higher tariffed content have tended to see larger price increases Recent headline inflation was partly pulled down due to base effects

Prior was +2.4% CPM m/m 0.0% vs +0.2% expected Prior CPI m/m -0.2% Core measures: BOC core 2.6% vs 2.8% prior BOC core m/m +0.2% vs -0.4% prior Core CPI % m/m +0.1% vs +0.3% prior CPI median +2.5% vs 2.5% expected (prior was 2.6%) CPI trim +2.4% vs 2.6% expected (prior was 2.7%) CPI

Japan 5-year JGB auction sees steady demand, bid-to-cover at 3.10 RBNZ to hold, signal rate hikes ahead, ING. Upside risks for NZ/US toward 0.62 by year-end India central bank finalises easier foreign borrowing rules for corporates Oil steady as Iran drills near Strait of Hormuz ahead of US talks US dollar positioning hits record underweight

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold found some support from the benign US CPI report on Friday where headline inflation eased slightly, while the core measure remained unchanged. We saw a small dovish repricing although the data didn’t change anything in the bigger picture. Yesterday, gold dropped again and eventually erased all the post-CPI gains. There was no

A former BOJ board member says April is the most likely timing for the next rate hike, as policymakers await wage data and updated forecasts, signaling a cautious but ongoing normalization process. This comes via Bloomberg (gated) Former BOJ board member Seiji Adachi says April is the most likely timing for the next rate hike.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK employment report. The consensus is for 94K jobs added in the three months to December 2025 vs 82K in the prior month, with the Unemployment Rate expected to remain unchanged at 5.1%. The Average Earnings incl. Bonus is expected at at 4.6%

Global investors stay “uber-bullish” but asset price upside in Q1 is harder Commodity overweight at highest since May 2022 Equity overweight at highest since December 2024 Most optimistic on earnings since August 2021, but investors saying companies are “overinvesting” at new record AI bubble is top tail risk Long gold is the most crowded trade

I’ve been posting this information late last week and earlier this week, but ICYMi. Summary: Lunar New Year 2026 (Year of the Horse) falls on Tuesday 17 Feb. Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed Feb 16–23, reopening Tue Feb 24. Hong Kong is closed Feb 17–19, and reopens Fri Feb 20. Singapore (SGX)

Prior +1.8% HICP +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim Prior +2.0% Core CPI 2.5% y/y No changes to the preliminary estimates here. The reaction to the data was muted as expected given no surprises and no influence on ECB’s policy outlook. The agency notes: “The rise in overall consumer prices intensified at the start of the

An update on these two losing ground. There is no fresh news driving price. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior 5.1% Employment change 52k vs 94k expected Prior 82k Average weekly earnings +4.2% vs +4.6% 3m/y expected Prior +4.7% (revised to 4.6%) Average weekly earnings ex bonus +4.2% vs +4.2% 3m/y expected Prior +4.5% (revised to 4.4%) January payrolls change -11k Prior -43k (revised to -6k) As a general reminder, the UK labour market

Soft landing looks more plausible, but the Fed isn’t ready to call it done. This is via the Wall Street Journal (gated), I’ve summarised. Summary: Key US macro “vital signs” are aligned: inflation is easing, jobs are holding up, and growth remains solid. Core CPI slowed to 2.5% y/y in January, while unemployment edged down

China will implement zero tariffs on imports from 53 African countries from May 1, broadening earlier waivers and deepening economic ties, in contrast to the US administration’s more protectionist tariff stance. Summary: China to eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African nations from May 1, 2026. Policy applies to all countries with diplomatic ties to

India’s ECB rule changes widen offshore funding options for corporates, with a mild positive read-through for risk. Info via Reuters reporting. Summary: RBI finalised easier rules for external commercial borrowings (ECBs), expanding flexibility for corporates raising overseas debt. Eligible firms can borrow up to $1bn or 300% of net worth, in foreign currency or rupees.

RBA minutes show the February rate hike was driven by stronger-than-expected data, persistent broad-based inflation and easing financial conditions, with policymakers emphasising data dependence and no preset rate path. Board judged risks to inflation and employment had “shifted materially”, strengthening case for February hike. Members agreed inflation would likely stay above target too long without

EUR/USD: 1.1900 (EUR1.22bn), 1.2000 (EUR769.2mn), 1.2025 (EUR615.4mn) USD/JPY: 156.00 (US$1.87bn), 151.00 (US$986.2mn) USD/CAD: 1.3600 (US$1.11bn), 1.3625 (US$980.7mn), 1.3500 (US$943mn) AUD/USD: 0.7025 (AUD429.2mn), 0.6750 (AUD399.3mn) GBP/USD: 1.3560 (GBP317mn) More information here. Justin posted this yesterday: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Canada January housing starts 238.0K vs 257.5K expected Canada December manufacturing sales +0.6% vs +0.5% expected The EU and a 12-nation Indo-Pacific bloc are opening talks Four charts that highlight the worries that are driving markets right now The Pentagon is close to cutting ties with Anthropic and may label the AI company a supply

I’ve got four charts crossing the desk today that paint a complicated picture for the Fed and the USD. We have a specific sector falling off a cliff, broader resilience, a sentiment reset, and the one thing Jay Powell doesn’t want to see: inflation ticking back up. 1. The Tech Sector is falling off a

USD/JPY has been the most-interesting forex pair of the past couple years as volatility remains elevated and a pair of 18-big figure trends have unfolded. More recently, we’ve seen a sharp move down to 152.00 from 159.00 following the latest Japanese election. In it, Senae Takaichi’s LDP party won a super majority in the Lower

Ethereum is frozen as the crypto winter continues. And it’s not frozen in a great spot as it carves out a range near the lows of the year. I would have liked to have seen a stronger bounce after the drop since late January but so far it hasn’t materialized. Instead, it’s stuck near $2000

That will make for a quieter start to the new week, not least with Chinese markets also out today. As a reminder, it will be a one week break for China in conjunction with the Lunar New Year holidays. So, that will sap out a chunk of liquidity in Asia trading at least for the

Westpac says global growth rotation may weigh on the dollar. Summary: Westpac sees dollar drifting lower, with risks skewed to the downside. US growth expected above trend in 2026, driven by consumers and tech investment. Inflation pressures likely to persist, limiting Fed rate cuts to one more move. Euro and sterling forecast to outperform, reaching

The currency pair had a bit of a mixed showing last week, with the early Monday move seeing price climb back above 1.1900 before stalling closer to 1.1920. After that, the hotter-than-expected US jobs report here sent the pair back down below the figure level. And since then, the pair has been meandering just under

Prior was -1.2% Sales of C$71.0 billion Gains in 12 of 21 subsectors led by motor vehicles +12.0% Sales down 1.1% y/y Sales up 0.2% q/q Inventories -1.2% Unfilled orders +0.4% The drop in inventories is going to be a drag on Q4 GDP and the sales numbers in the quarter aren’t particularly inspiring either.

NZDUSD stays rangebound ahead of the RBNZ decision: traders expect no change to the OCR Oil prices in the spotlight ahead of the second round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva Silver’s faltering recovery last week not a good early sign It’s a big week for the British Pound as major UK economic data loom

Well, that seems to have been quite a short meeting. For some context, they were scheduled to meet at 0800 GMT (5pm Tokyo time) and it’s over and done with in less than 20 minutes. This is their first meeting since the snap election results, which resulted in a landslide victory for Takaichi and her

Prior was 282.4K Starts down 15% m/m Non-seasonally adjusted starts -3.5% m/m Canada’s housing construction picture in Q4 2025 told a story of fading momentum punctuated by a strong December finish. For the full year, CMHC reported total housing starts of 259,028 units across all areas, up 5.6% from 245,367 in 2024 — the fifth-highest

Japan bear flips & now bets on yen strength vs dollar, sterling & franc (sees +8% vs. CHF) Japan PM and BOJ chief Ueda will meet today at 5pm Tokyo time Westpac targets 1.22 for EUR/USD and $1.41 GBP/USD (long horizon) China deploys ‘national team’ investors to cool AI stock surge, selling intervention Japan junior

GDP growth fell well short of estimates. Preview is here I’ll have more to come on this separately, details and analysis. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Crude oil prices came under some pressure in the final part of last week as we got a couple of bearish catalysts. On the US-Iran negotiations front, there have been many mixed signals, but it looks like the Iranians are willing to compromise given the bleak consequences that a no-deal could have. In

NZ services expand modestly, but confidence and hiring remain subdued. Summary: PSI slips but stays in expansion, easing to 50.9 from 51.5 and remaining above the 50 threshold. Growth below long-run average, with January’s reading under the historical norm of 52.8. Activity and new orders positive, signalling ongoing turnover and forward demand support. Employment and

It’s a holiday in the US today and markets are closed but it’s also a holiday in China as lunar new year celebrations back up. The most-watched TV show in China annually is the CCTV Spring Festival gala and in the past few years, it’s turned into a demostration of the cutting edge of humanoid

Sometimes in life, we always go by the principle of using Occam’s razor to work things out. It’s not so much the best thing to abide by when trading, but one of the best principles I find in trading is to always keep things simple. That is also in part what Greg tends to preach

BofA argues that the dollar remains in a precarious spot and while there is plenty of focus on China diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets, it is Europe that should be watched more closely instead. As a reminder, the US Treasury will be releasing its TIC report for December 2025 later this week on 18 February.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the Eurozone industrial production data. This is rarely a market-moving report and in any case, it’s not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we just have

Monday begins quietly, with U.S. markets closed for Presidents’ Day. In China, markets will also be affected by the Spring Festival holiday. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y, and the unemployment rate. In Canada, the focus will be on inflation data. Wednesday brings the RBNZ monetary

Credit Agricole is out with a note at the end of last week saying that the dollar will remain in the crosshairs for trading this week. That as traders will have plenty to look forward to this week as well, following the key economic data trifecta last week. The firm argues that all things considered,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny

Singapore exports grow solidly but miss forecasts as electronics outpace other sectors. Summary: January NODX rose 9.3% y/y, below expectations of 12.1%. Electronics led gains, driven by integrated circuits and disk media. Non-electronics exports declined, highlighting uneven sector performance. Exports to China, Hong Kong and EU rose, while US and Indonesia shipments fell. Forecasts recently

This follows from the 1.2% growth in 2024 and the 1.3% growth posted in 2023. In terms of GDP per capita, the Swiss economy grew by 0.5% in 2025. And just for a bit more of a benchmark, the GDP per capita has expanded by 4.8% since 2019. Looking at the details, the industrial sector

Summary: Takaichi and Ueda meet for first time since election win, amid rate-hike speculation. Previous November meeting preceded December hike to 0.75%. Yen has rebounded nearly 3%, after earlier weakness near 160 per dollar. Markets price ~80% chance of April hike, as inflation stays above target. Two BOJ board seats opening, giving Takaichi potential influence

Optimism builds for Chinese equities as policy support and tech innovation offset lingering risks. Summary: Chinese equities rallied strongly in 2025, supported by exports, AI advances and policy easing. Technology and housing stabilisation policies are key areas of investor optimism. Corporate governance and capital returns improving, with rising dividends and buybacks. Earnings growth expected to

Beijing deploys state-linked investors to moderate AI-driven stock speculation. ps. Chinese markets are closed this week: Lunar New Year 2026: Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed February 16–23 Summary: China’s “national team” selling equities, aiming to cool AI-driven speculation. Shift from traditional buyer role, previously used to stabilise markets during downturns. ~US$110bn ETF

Westpac says US resilience limits scope for further Fed easing. Summary: US growth remains resilient, with activity tracking above trend despite uncertainty. Labour market stable, unemployment steady around 4.3% and wage growth firm. Household balance sheets strong, wealth at record highs supporting consumption. Inflation risks persist, particularly in core services, complicating Fed easing. Westpac delays

Japan junior coalition partner leader urges tax relief while defending BOJ independence. Summary: Junior coalition leader backs swift food tax suspension, targeting fiscal 2026 rollout. Foreign reserves flagged as funding option, potentially reducing need for new debt issuance. BOJ independence emphasised, with rate decisions left to the central bank. Further rate hikes possible, given weak

Investor turns bullish on Japan bonds and yen after election clarity. Summary: Bloomberg reports Nash turns bullish on JGBs, buying 10-year bonds after election clarity. Political stability seen as catalyst, with yields falling sharply since Takaichi’s win. Yen bought versus dollar and sterling, marking strategic FX repositioning. Forecast 8–9% yen appreciation, particularly against the Swiss

Not too much change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1875 USD/JPY 152.66 GBP/USD 1.3641 AUD/USD 0.7072 USD/CAD 1.3609 USD/CHF 0.7685 NZD/USD 0.6033 I’ll be back with weekend news soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand retail card spending -1.1% m/m in January, reversing December’s +0.1%. Total card spending also declined, -0.7% on the month after a 1.0% fall previously. In annual terms, electronic retail card spending edged up 0.4% y/y. Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. Considering that US markets are closed today, there is a notable lack of interest on the expiries board to start the week. That being said, there is one that could still factor into play. And that is for

Beijing pivots toward consumption-led growth as export reliance faces mounting global headwinds. While Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on Sunday, take note that Chinese markets are closed all this week: Lunar New Year 2026: Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed February 16–23 Summary: Xi pivots toward domestic demand, calling consumption and investment the

IMF says Australia is landing softly, but inflation and global risks demand policy vigilance. Summary: IMF sees Australia achieving a soft landing, with growth rebounding to around 2% after a weak 2024. Inflation eased then re-accelerated, with underlying price pressures back above 3% in late 2025. Growth expected to hold near 2% in 2026, supported

Washington escalates sanctions enforcement with another long-range tanker interception. Posting this with Globex oil trade about to open for the new week. Summary: US boards second tanker, intercepting the Panama-flagged Veronica III in the Indian Ocean. Operation followed long-distance tracking from the Caribbean amid sanctions enforcement. Vessel carried 1.9 million barrels and is sanctioned by

Japan ekes out Q4 growth, but momentum remains weak despite easing tariff drag. Summary Q4 GDP barely positive, rising 0.1% q/q and 0.2% annualised, well below expectations. Private consumption slowed, up 0.1% q/q amid persistent food price pressures. Capex underwhelmed, increasing just 0.2% versus forecasts of 0.8%. Exports fell 0.3%, with external demand contributing zero

The key market influence today is the closure of Chinese mainland markets and half days on ly in Hong Kong and Singapore (more detail below the screenshot). The calendar lists China house price data due today. These were published last week: China house prices continue their death spiral: January -3.1% y/y and -0.4% m/m Japanese

Sun: Japanese Prelim. GDP (Q4) Mon: US Holiday (Washington’s Birthday/Presidents Day); Eurogroup Meeting; Swedish Unemployment (Jan), EZ Industrial Production (Dec) Tue: RBA Minutes (Feb); UK Unemployment/Wages (Dec), German ZEW (Feb), US ADP Weekly, Canadian CPI (Jan), NY Fed (Feb), Chinese Lunar New Year (Hong Kong markets closed from 17th-19th Feb) Wed: RBNZ Announcement, FOMC Minutes

Bitcoin Futures are hovering near $68,800 in mid-February 2026, attempting to stabilize after a sharp retracement from last year’s surge above $110,000. At the same time, Ethereum Futures are trading close to $2,050, nearly 50% below their prior highs above $4,000. While crypto appears to be “holding,” the broader backdrop tells a more complex story.

US January CPI +2.4% y/y vs +2.5% expected Fed’s Goolsbee sees encouraging and concerning parts of the CPI report US Supreme Court says next Friday will be a decision day US Treasury secretary Bessent says that metals tariffs decision will be up to Trump Oil prices dip on report that OPEC+ may resume oil output

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke with Yahoo Finance today and had some notable comments: Encouraging and concerning parts in latest CPI We are still seeing pretty high services inflation Hopes we’ve seen the peak impact of tariffs The job market has been steady, only modest cooling Rates can still go down but need to

The US House voted against tariffs this week and the Senate is expected to follow suit. They will surely be vetoed by President Trump but that move gives some cover to the Supreme Court ahead of its big decision on tariffs. The court today announced that Feb 20, 24 and 25 will all be ‘decision

Sector Overview: A Mixed Day Across the Market The stock market today showcases a complex landscape, with varied performances across sectors. Leading the charge, the healthcare sector is basking in green, while technology shows a mix of highs and lows. 📈 Healthcare: Eli Lilly (LLY) surged by 1.40%, riding on positive sentiments, while Merck (MRK)

US stocks have turned around nicely today led by the Russell 2000, which is up 1.8%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up 0.6% and eyes are on software stocks. The IGV software ETF is up 2.3% after an utterly bruising performance so far this year. I’m careful not to lean too hard on

New yuan loans ¥4.71 trillion vs ¥5.00 trillion expected China’s new bank loans surged in January, as is typical of the new year. Looking back to 2025, this figure was ¥5.13 trillion in January last year. That said, the figure this time around misses on estimates but is still a big one in preparation of

It’s a mixed up week with non-farm payrolls already passed but CPI scheduled for today. It’s a big one as it could re-frame the debate about how many rate cuts are possible. Notably, despite the strong non-farm payrolls on Wednesday, the market isn’t convinced the Fed will hold. Year-end pricing for rate cuts is up

Prior +2.9% HICP +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y prelim Prior +3.0% The numbers here are slightly softer than what the initial estimates indicated. And they reflect a material decline in headline annual inflation to start the new year. That being said, core prices still represent the most important detail in this report and it is the

Prior was +2.7% m/m CPI +0.2% vs +0.3% expected Prior m/m reading was +0.3% Real weekly earnings +0.5% vs -0.3% prior (revised to -0.5%) Core inflation : Ex food and energy +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior ex food and energy +2.5% Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% exp Prior core m/m +0.2% Core goods +1.1%

PBOC’s emphasis on overnight repo rate sparks talk of policy framework shift. Summary: PBOC elevates focus on overnight repo rate Monthly report reordered to highlight overnight benchmark Potential shift away from 7-day reverse repo focus Overnight rate already trading close to policy rate Signals possible evolution in policy framework The People’s Bank of China has

US CPI preview: What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? US January CPI report to offer a cleaner read on inflation developments? Headlines: US futures drop lower as equities look to end the week with a whimper Gold at risk of another selloff as traders turn their focus to the US CPI

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

It might be the result of a brutally cold winter so far but Canadian consumer spending dipped in January, according to the latest spending tracker from RBC. Using cardholder data, Canada’s largest bank indicated that spending fell across discretionary goods, services and essentials in the month. The bank downplayed the decline, noting that it came

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 58 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 48 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 8 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 7 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by

Prior +0.1% Core CPI +0.5% y/y Prior +0.5% Slight delay in the release by the source. The monthly estimate points to another negative reading (-0.1%), missing slightly on estimates this time around. That will be a slight concern looking out to the year ahead. This marks a fifth consecutive negative monthly estimate after recording flat

USS Ford strike group will join USS Lincoln carrier strike group in Persian Gulf PBOC’s focus on overnight rate fuels speculation of policy shift BOJ’s Tamura says inflation sticky, sees scope to judge target met by spring China housing market struggles despite “three red lines” removal. 62/70 cities price falls NZ inflation expectations mixed ahead

The story from earlier: Japan seizes Chinese fishing vessel in EEZ, arrests captain amid rising tensions The legality of the situation might not matter all too much. That especially since China and Japan are already in quite the state of conflict since Japan prime minister Takaichi took over. Her remarks on Japan potentially needing to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar spiked higher following the strong US NFP report on Wednesday as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets, but surprisingly gave back all the gains soon after. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for

The process of disinflation is intact and not complete We need to maintain monetary policy restrictiveness Core inflation is falling again after having stalled I hope inflation expectations will fall with slowing inflation Underlying inflation should be the focus of policy Disinflation is not as rapid or convincing as hoped Underlying inflation looks more like

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Yesterday, out of the blue, we got a quick selloff in gold without any clear catalyst. The curious thing is that we saw the same price action across many other assets around the same time. It’s unclear what triggered those moves. Anyway, the focus now is on the US CPI report today. The

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we have the Swiss CPI and the Eurozone Q4 GDP. The Swiss CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.1% vs 0.1% prior. The data is unlikely to change anything for the SNB though as policymakers have repeatedly said that the bar for negative rates remains very high and that even

Software stocks have been under heavy pressure as of late amid concerns of AI disruptions to the space. But yesterday, we’re starting to see that spill over to some other parts of the market you’d least expect. It was quite a blowout in Wall Street: Every industry is one AI headline away from a brutal

If anything it done, it would be clarification on incidental objects Spoke to the USTR this morning, we’ll see if there’s a narrowing He also weighs in on the Fed chair drama involving Senator Tillis, who might want to block the nomination of Kevin Warsh i.e. Trump’s pick to replace Powell. We’ll see where the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Same as we saw for gold, yesterday we got a quick selloff in silver without any clear catalyst, although half of the losses were eventually pared back. The curious thing is that we saw the same price action across many other assets around the same time. It’s unclear what triggered those moves. Today,

This was already evident when we saw the German and French trade data last week. For some context: US tariffs impact show up in German and French trade numbers, but is there a bigger worry? Of note, German exports to the US last year plunged while French exports were steady at the balance after some

Now is not the time for the ECB to move interest rates We are in a good position to move interest rates in any way if needed We have yet to see the full impact of recent euro appreciation Policymakers are on monitoring mode with regards to the euro strength There are concerns that a

Prior +0.3% There’s no change to the initial estimate with the yearly figure confirmed at 1.3% as well. As mentioned before, this mainly reaffirms a more resilient showing by the euro area economy in ending last year. As for annual growth for 2025 as a whole, GDP is seen increasing by 1.5% for the year.

The sources are saying that OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes starting from April. However, the bloc has not yet made a firm decision on the matter and that talks will continue ahead of their 1 March meeting. The headline is enough to bring about a dip in oil prices, with WTI crude

Tamura flags sticky inflation and positive output gap, signalling scope for further BOJ rate hikes. Summary: BOJ’s Tamura says inflation becoming “sticky” Price target may be judged achieved as early as spring Output gap already positive Yen weakness a renewed inflation risk Policy still accommodative at 0.75% Neutral rate likely at least around 1% Signals

Spotify Stock Analysis After Earnings: Why SPOT’s Post-Earnings Rally Faded and What Technical Structure Suggests Next Spotify (SPOT) delivered a strong earnings reaction, initially triggering a powerful upside move. However, much of that rally has since faded, leaving traders asking an important question: Was this a healthy pullback within a bullish shift, or early evidence

IC Markets Global has been recognised by TradingView as the “Social Champion” at the 2025 TradingView Broker Awards, highlighting the broker’s strong engagement and connection with the global trading community. The Social Champion award recognises brokers that stand out on TradingView through active participation, meaningful interaction, and consistent engagement with traders across the platform’s social

The report says that the US president is planning to roll back some tariffs on steel and aluminium goods, largely as a move to bolster his public image ahead of the November midterm elections. As a reminder, Trump slapped steel and aluminium imports with tariffs of up to 50% last year and even expanded that

The meeting was said to take place in Beijing on Thursday, with representatives from 60 German companies being in attendance. Of note, the list of German firms included the likes of BASF, BMW Group, and Bayer. The commerce ministry then reaffirmed that both China and Germany remain “committed to a fair and stable business environment”.

China’s housing slump deepens as January prices post steepest annual drop in seven months. Earlier on this here: China house prices continue their death spiral: January -3.1% y/y and -0.4% m/m adding a little more now: Summary: China new home prices fall 0.4% m/m, -3.1% y/y in January Annual decline steepest in seven months 62

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being a rather large one for EUR/USD at the 1.1850 level. The expiries hold close to the 200-hour moving average of 1.1846 currently and that together, that could keep a floor on price action in the session ahead.

We’re starting to see the pressure build up again as we look to European morning trade today. That after the heavy selling in Wall Street amid continued concerns on the AI trade and potential disruptions surrounding the technology itself. It’s creating quite a vortex of volatility, and it is one that might take some time

Microsoft is widely (and rightly) seen as a defining company of the past 50 years. It’s changed the world completely, is ubiquitous, highly profitable and among the most-valuable in the world. People also forget that for a decade, it was a joke in the stock market. The Steve Balmer era was a disaster and coincided

RBNZ set to hold at 2.25% as inflation expectations send mixed signals and hike bets build for 2026. Summary: RBNZ widely expected to hold OCR at 2.25% on February 18 Inflation at 3.1%, above 1–3% target band Rate cuts since 2024 total 325bp Hike expectations for end-2026 rising Futures price ~60% chance of hike by

USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group redirected from Caribbean to Middle East, extending deployment into spring. Summary: USS USS Gerald R. Ford and escort ships will be rerouted from the Caribbean to the Middle East, delaying their return home until late April or early May. This redeployment will see the Ford strike group join

Trump says they could have a deal with Iran over the next month But he will talk with Iran as long as he likes We have to make a deal with Iran This should be a negative for oil, which is already down $2 to $62.64 today. This article was written by Adam Button at

Two industries are getting smoked today that had previously been on the sidelines of the AI trade: Freight brokers/trucking Office real estate Here is a look at CH Robinson, which is one of the largest third-party logistics companies in the world. They arrange transportation between shippers and carriers and take a margin in return. It’s

Japan signals vigilance on FX as Mimura issues low-key verbal warning Summary: Japan’s top currency official says authorities are watching FX “with high urgency.” Refuses to comment on specific exchange-rate levels. Says Tokyo is in close contact with US authorities. Emphasises Japan is “not lowering its guard.” Tone measured but US reference notable. Japan’s top

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar spiked higher yesterday following a strong US NFP report as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets but surprisingly gave back all the gains. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for the US CPI.

There is no letup in the software rout. The question is whether we’ve crossed some kind of rubicon where we are pricing in mass disruption due to AI. The flashpoint seemed to be the release of Claude Plugins but it’s been a long time coming. The simple thesis is that AI makes it much easier

Gold was slammed lower in an instant for unclear reasons. The move has come with some broad US dollar bids across the board. Cable underscores the move as it’s fallen back to flat on the day. The drop in gold and rise in the dollar could have been triggered by broader risk aversion. US stocks

The report says ahead of Trump’s visit to China in April, the US administration is putting on ice a number of key tech security measures that are targeted at Beijing. The sources say that Washington does not want to kick up a fuss, after having already seen a trade detente between Trump and Xi back

Prior was 4.35m Home sales change -8.4% vs +5.1% prior Days on the market 46 vs 41 prior Inventory at 3.7 months Median prices $396,800, up 0.9% y/y This is the worst reading since September 2024 and is a sharp reversal from what looked like a nice recovery. I tend to think this is a

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Trump yesterday, largely about Iran. Since the meeting, oil prices have come under pressure as Trump, and now Netanyahu, have emphasized negotiations. Netanyahu said he was skeptical there would be success but said that Iran likely realized they made a mistake and didn’t reach a deal last time.

Prior +0.1% GDP +1.0% vs +1.2% y/y expected Prior +1.3%; revised to +1.2% The headline figure might point to marginal growth on the quarter, but UK real GDP per capita is now down for two consecutive quarters. So, that is something to take note of. That being said, real GDP per capita is still estimated

Summary: RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter says labour market has stabilised but remains tight. Bank closely assessing capacity pressures and inflation persistence. Inflation expected to remain above 2–3% target for some time. Recent slowdown driven by fewer vacancies and hiring, not higher unemployment. Remarks reinforce Governor Bullock’s warning that further hikes remain possible Reserve Bank

🗂 Sector Overview: Emerging Leaders and Lagging Sectors The semiconductor sector is witnessing a remarkable upswing today, with major players like NVIDIA (NVDA) climbing 1.46% and Micron Technology (MU) surging by 4.32%. These gains underscore a renewed investor confidence amid news of advancements in chip technologies. On the other hand, the consumer cyclicals are facing

Prior was 231K (revised to 232K) Four-week moving average 219.5K vs 212.5K prior Continuing claims 1862K vs 1850K expected Prior continuing claims 1844K (revised to 1841K) Last week, the market was rattled by the job in initial jobless claims. Prior to that, for the week ending January 17, 2026, initial claims rose slightly by 1,000

Rupee firms after suspected RBI FX intervention Hedge funds boost yen bets as buy Japan trade strengthens — Bloomberg Tokyo keeps intervention risk alive as yen swings. Mimura recap. Precious metals retreat after US payroll surprise Lunar New Year 2026: Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed February 16–23 PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference

The dollar is a little lower at the balance in European morning trade, struggling to build on the gains from after the stronger non-farm payrolls data yesterday. The US jobs report was a solid one, reaffirming another strong January print with beats in both payrolls and the unemployment rate. The latter even coming despite a

Lunar New Year (LNY) 2026 brings thin liquidity and China-offshore price discovery, with travel/consumption the key narrative. Summary: Lunar New Year 2026 (Year of the Horse) falls on Tuesday 17 Feb. Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed Feb 16–23, reopening Tue Feb 24. Hong Kong has half-day trading on Mon Feb 16, is

Summary: Traders say RBI likely sold US dollars before local market open. Rupee strengthened. Intervention reportedly conducted via large state-run bank. Move surprised market participants. Action occurred just before 9:00 a.m. IST spot open India’s central bank is believed to have stepped into currency markets ahead of Thursday’s local trading session, helping the rupee open

For some context, this relates to the earlier headline: China now tries to play nice with the EU with latest trade rulings As mentioned then, China has moved forward to finalise 11.7% tariffs on EU dairy products starting from 13 February. It sounds bad initially but context matters here. The provisional rates for these tariffs

There were some encouraging signs for precious metals in the run up to the US jobs report yesterday. However, buyers didn’t quite get the right kind of trigger to solidify their conviction and we’re seeing things reset in the aftermath. Gold had nudged above $5,100 briefly while silver also pushed above its 200-hour moving average

This week is all about key US economic data releases. And after the non-farm payrolls data yesterday, we’re not quite done yet as the consumer price inflation (CPI) report is what will bookend the week tomorrow. It’s a rare week in markets where we get a trifecta of big data from the US, but it

Stable jobs, sticky inflation — the Fed stays cautious and data-dependent. Summary: President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Beth Hammack says unemployment appears to be stabilising. Labour market described as broadly in balance. Inflation remains above target and “still too high.” Consumer spending holding up, led by higher-income households. Fed’s focus

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. There are some largish ones for EUR/USD at the 1.1750-60 levels but they aren’t likely to feature into play. The dollar is firmer after the stronger US jobs report yesterday but not really enough to set off

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar spiked higher yesterday following a strong US NFP report as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets but surprisingly gave back all the gains. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for the US CPI.

Headlines: Dollar struggles to build on post-NFP gains, focus turns to CPI next The US Dollar fails to rally on the hot NFP: signal of weakness or caution ahead of CPI? Precious metals hold more rangebound again after the US jobs report How has the Fed outlook changed after the hot US jobs report yesterday?

SCMP reports Trump and Xi may meet in Beijing in early April and extend their trade truce by up to a year, including further tariff rollback and new Chinese purchase pledges. China has resumed US soybean buys ahead of the summit. Summary: Trump and Xi are expected to meet in Beijing in early April, per

The market isn’t pricing in any more cuts from the Bank of Canada, so they’re data watching and there isn’t much in the commentary that could be market moving. Agreed ahead of Jan 28 decision that the rate was on the stimulative side Uncertainty over the pace and scale of structural adjustment made growth, potential

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq has been consolidating since Monday as traders awaited the US NFP and CPI reports this week. We got the NFP yesterday and it was a hot one as it beat expectations by a big margin with the unemployment rate falling further to 4.3% despite an increase in participation rate. The market

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been stuck in a consolidation below the 7K level since Monday as traders awaited the US NFP and CPI reports this week. We got the NFP report yesterday and it was a hot one as it beat expectations by a big margin with the unemployment rate falling further to

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight was the UK Q4 GDP report. The data was slightly weaker than expected but didn’t change materially the current BoE outlook, so the market reaction was limited. We don’t have much on the agenda for the rest of the session, so the price action will likely

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9106 more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar spiked higher yesterday following a strong US NFP report as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets but surprisingly gave back all the gains. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for the US CPI.

The two sides are having to rely on one another in trying to make the best out of a tough situation brought about by US tariffs. France did stir the pot a little with some controversial headlines below but as a reminder, that isn’t the official stance by the French government but mere advice for

I’ll have more to come on this separately, details, BoJ implications etc. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

SoftBank earnings today showed that the firm swung back into profit in its fiscal third quarter, largely driven by founder Masayoshi Son’s large and growing investment in OpenAI. For some context, SoftBank made a staggering $41 billion investment in OpenAI last year. And that now sees the firm hold approximately 11% stake in OpenAI. It’s

Oil falls after Trump says his preference is for a deal with Iran Bank of Canada minutes: Agreed they would need to maintain optionality in setting rates US sells 10-year notes at 4.177% vs 4.163% WI EIA weekly crude oil inventories +8530K vs +793K expected Mexican President Sheinbaum: I do not believe the US will

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary: Michele Bullock is appearing before the Senate Economics Committee amid fresh scrutiny of monetary policy after the RBA raised rates. The RBA recently lifted the cash rate by 25 bps to 3.85%, the first hike in more than two years, citing persistent inflation pressures. Inflation remains above target, and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has

Washington signals credible military escalation risk as Iran nuclear talks hang in the balance. There has been plenty of chatter about on this, firming up now. Wall Street Journal reporting. Summary Pentagon orders a second carrier strike group to prepare for possible Middle East deployment. Donald Trump weighing move as pressure builds on Iran nuclear

Silver’s explosive rally lifts 2026 targets, but substitution risks loom. Summary: J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts silver to average $81/oz in 2026. Silver surged nearly 130% in 2025, from $29 to above $70/oz. Industrial demand and tariff uncertainty were major drivers. Warsh Fed nomination triggered sharp precious metals pullback. Substitution risk in solar could cap

There were a lot of positive takeaways from the US jobs report yesterday here. That at least if you’re a dollar bull, with the numbers offering plenty in terms of reaffirming steadier labour market conditions to start the new year. That being said, I would be remiss not to point out that one data point

Summary: Gold and silver dip. Strong January US jobs data dents near-term rate cut hopes. Spot gold near $5,060; silver slips after sharp prior rally. Markets eye jobless claims and US inflation data next. Iran diplomacy headlines linger in background. Gold prices are rangebound in early Asia trade, as a firmer U.S. dollar capped momentum

A light data agenda for the session today. Japan’s January wholesale inflation data will be of some interest. Higher than expected should be yen supportive and vice versa. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fed near neutral, staying patient — but watching inflation and debt risks. Summary: Beth Hammack says fed funds rate is “right around neutral.” Labour market broadly balanced; unemployment stabilising. Fed well positioned to stay on hold — no need to fine-tune policy. Local contacts report growth picking up. Warns US government debt is on an

Bullock: higher AUD and rates doing the work — but more hikes still possible Summary: Governor Bullock says a higher Australian dollar and higher interest rates will help cool demand back into balance. Australia may struggle to grow above ~2% sustainably without a lift in productivity. Further rate rises are not pre-committed: getting inflation down

Japan’s PPI is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index. Its an indicator to ‘wholesale’ inflation. Data post earlier is here ICYMI: Japan January 2026 wholesale inflation. PPI 2.3% y/y (vs. expected 2.3%) Japan wholesale inflation slows, but yen import prices edge higher Japan’s January CGPI rises 2.3% y/y, slowing from 2.4%. In line

House votes 219–211 to terminate Trump’s Canada tariffs Summary: House passes resolution 219–211 to terminate Trump’s tariffs on Canada. Measure led by Gregory Meeks. Six Republicans joined Democrats; one Democrat voted no. Resolution targets the national emergency underpinning the tariffs. Must pass the Senate and survive a likely presidential veto. The U.S. House of Representatives

UK housing downturn eases as January RICS balance improves Summary: UK January RICS house price balance rises to -10 from revised -13. Beat Reuters poll expectation of -11. New buyer enquiries improve to highest since July. 12-month sales expectations jump to strongest since Dec 2024. Early signs of stabilisation, though activity remains subdued. Britain’s housing

Trump posted this on Truth Social: I have just finished meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu, of Israel, and various of his Representatives. It was a very good meeting, the tremendous relationship between our two Countries continues. There was nothing definitive reached other than I insisted that negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not

ING sees the yen strengthening as Japan pairs looser fiscal policy with tighter BOJ settings while the Fed moves toward further easing. I’m a little wary of this, the current signalling out of the Fed seems to be on hold: ICYMI – Fed officials signal patience as rates seen near neutral and inflation lingers Summary:

Prior was 4.173% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It is a tough time to be a public software company. Stocks are getting punished again today: PLTR -4.2% APP -6.2% INTU -5.6% ADBE -2.2% ADSK -5.5% WDAY -6.5% ZM -5.8% U -28% (!) The flashpoint was Claude releasing a series of plugins. It has the market re-evaluating the moats and pricing power around software

What’s expected: Consensus estimate +70K (range -10K to +135K) December +37K Private consensus estimate +70K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.4% vs 4.4% prior Participation rate consensus 62.4% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 8.4% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.6% y/y vs +3.8% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior Avg weekly hours

It’s not Friday yet but if it feels that way, it’s because we’re minutes away from the non-farm payrolls report. It’s a big one as the Federal Reserve circles the jobs market as a key metric in whether it will cut rates further or hold them here. The data over the past week hasn’t been

This comes in response to the French government strategy report earlier this week which floated the idea of either 30% blanket tariffs on Chinese goods or 30% outright depreciation of the euro against the yuan (à la Plaza Accord style). I posted the details of the story earlier here: France lands in hot water with

Yuan eases (just a little bit) on soft inflation despite firm PBOC guidance House vote failure opens door to Trump tariff repeal efforts ING sees yen recovery as BOJ tightening contrasts with Fed cuts China inflation misses forecasts as producer deflation persists RBA’s Hauser says inflation too high, vows action to return to target. AUD

Further rate cuts could allow higher inflation to persist for longer. Not seeing evidence current level of interest rates is restraining economy. Appropriate to keep restrictive monetary policy with inflation close to 3%. Productivity improvements could allow faster growth without inflation, but ‘we are not there yet’. Current inflation rate indicates still-strong demand is outpacing

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For some context, the French government released a strategy report this week and is one that is meant to be part of an advice to the prime minister as well as to help guide long-term policy setting. Included in that report is a call for the EU to consider either a 30% blanket tariffs on

An interview yesterday on CNBC with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour laid bare the truth. He was grilled by Becky Quick about insider trading on the platform. Mansour highlighted how they investigate suspicious bets but he also seemed to struggle with the difference between the legal obligations that CEOs have in protecting market-moving information and the

This is a notable comment from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum who said she does not believe that Trump with withdraw the US from the USMCA trade agreement. Earlier today, a report from Bloomberg said Trump is privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact, citing problems with Canada in particular. The president has asked

Prior was +50K November was +56K Two-month net revision -17K Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.4% Unrounded unemployment 4.283% vs 4.375% prior Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.4% prior U6 underemployment rate 8.0% vs 8.4% prior Average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings 3.7% y/y vs +3.6% expected

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

US jobs report build up: Preview: January non-farm payrolls by the numbers. The consensus is high What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? What to watch out for in the US labour market report later? Goldman flags substantial downside risk to January jobs report Headlines: USD/JPY continues to unwind the run up

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the Italian Industrial Production data which is never a market-moving release and won’t change anything for the ECB anyway. The price action might remain rangebound into the US NFP report later in the day, but I also wouldn’t be surprised

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar came under some more pressure yesterday following soft US Retail Sales and US ECI data. We got a slightly dovish repricing on the back of the weaker data with the market now pricing 60 bps of easing by year-end compared to 58 bps before the data release. The focus

The December non-farm payrolls report was very strong and led to the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% from 4.4% in a surprise twist. Here is WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos after the release: The January jobs report cements the Fed’s extended pause on interest rates. Powell on Jan. 28: “The economy has, once again, surprised us

Sector Overview The US stock market today paints a diverse picture, driven by distinct performances across sectors. Leading the pack is the semiconductor sector, showcasing substantial gains, while the home improvement sector faces headwinds. This dichotomy underlines the varied investor sentiment and sector-specific dynamics at play. 🚀 Semiconductor Surge: A noteworthy rise is seen in

US December retail sales 0.0% vs +0.4% expected Fed’s Logan: If inflation falls and labor market stays stable, no further cuts needed Fed’s Hammack: Inflation is ‘still too high’ and tariff issues still in play US November business inventories +0.1% vs +0.2% expected US import prices for December 0.1% vs 0.1% expected US employment cost

House Republicans failed to block tariff repeal votes, reopening debate over Trump-era trade measures. Summary: House procedural vote fails 217–214 Johnson effort to block tariff votes collapses Three Republicans break ranks Democrats poised to advance tariff repeal bills Trade policy debate reopens A key procedural vote in the United States House of Representatives failed on

Westpac expects the RBNZ to hold rates steady while modestly bringing forward its first projected hike, without signalling a more aggressive tightening path. Summary: RBNZ expected to hold OCR at 2.25% at its February 18 meeting First hike forecast brought forward to Dec 2026 Inflation acknowledged as too high Forecasts still point to gradual disinflation

Prior was -3455K Gasoline+1160K vs -362K Distillates -2703K Refinery utilization -1.1% There were some waves late yesterday when the API survey showed this: Crude +13.4M Gasoline +3.3M Distillates -2.0M There have been some big swings in these numbers lately and I have to assume it’s because some Venezuelan crude is coming into the visible market

Last month, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker was as high as 5.41% and that caused the usual pundits in Washington to declare that growth was running that hot. In fact, it was goosed due to a one-off super-strong October trade balance report. That was followed by a sharp correction lower in November trade and a

Ford’s Q4 earnings missed sharply on tariffs and supply issues, but management sees 2026 as a rebound year driven by Ford Pro and Blue strength. Summary: Ford posts biggest earnings miss in four years Tariffs and supply disruptions hit Q4 results Revenue beats but margins disappoint Model e losses persist despite slight improvement 2026 framed

The dollar is weaker across the board today, extending losses from Monday with USD/JPY eyeing a third consecutive daily decline. It’s a bit of a mixed bag this week with precious metals taking a breather, while stocks and bond yields were dragged down by the softer US retail sales data yesterday here. In continuing with

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold is still stuck in a tight consolidation just above the 5000 level as traders await the US NFP and CPI reports. Nothing has changed since Monday. The fundamentals are still skewed against rising prices due to improving US data (not considering the December reports) and easing geopolitical tensions. Today, we will get

As per usual, the three main components will be the headline non-farm payrolls number, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. And typically, we will also get the two-month revision to the payrolls figure. However, this time around will feature the annual adjustments from the benchmark revision up to March 2025. On the latter component,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar came under some more pressure yesterday following soft US Retail Sales and US ECI data. We got a slightly dovish repricing on the back of the weaker data with the market now pricing 60 bps of easing by year-end compared to 58 bps before the data release. The focus

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has been slowly recovering the losses in the past days helped by the lack of bearish catalysts, but a crucial US NFP report today could hurt the bulls. In fact, the market is pricing 60 bps of easing for the Fed this year, so there’s a high risk of a hawkish repricing

After the more volatile start to the year, the past three days have been extremely calm for precious metals. Gold has been keeping within a $100 range this week while silver is only kept in a $5 horizon. That’s quite something after all the recent volatility spikes and corrective selling since the end of January.

Inflation data from China for January 2025. Preview here. I’ll have more to come on this, analysis and implications, separately. PPI m/m is +0.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Housing finance accelerated into Q4, supporting the “still-warm” domestic demand narrative, but the RBA’s next hike is still more likely May than March. Summary: Q4 housing finance strengthened across owner-occupiers, investors and first-home buyers Value growth outpaced volumes, pointing to larger average loan sizes Investor value growth cooled sharply from Q3’s surge RBA hiked to

Summary: White House revises US-India trade factsheet Reference to pulse tariff cuts removed Digital services language softened Commitment wording adjusted Negotiations appear ongoing The White House has revised its official factsheet outlining U.S.–India trade discussions, quietly removing references to agricultural tariff cuts and softening language around digital trade commitments. In an updated version of the

The yuan eased slightly after weak inflation data, even as the PBOC set a firm midpoint and signalled continued managed currency stability. Summary: Yuan edges lower after soft inflation PBOC sets strongest midpoint since 2023 Loose policy stance reaffirmed Seasonal corporate demand supported currency Exchange-rate stability remains priority China’s yuan edged lower on Wednesday following

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9140 PBOC inject 78.5bn yuan via 7-day RRs @1.4% and 400bn yuan via 14-dayers @1.65% Earlier: ICYMI – PBOC pledges loose policy, ample liquidity This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s January inflation data missed expectations and showed persistent producer-price deflation, reinforcing pressure for further policy support. Summary: January CPI +0.2% y/y, below expectations Core inflation eased to 0.8% PPI -1.4% y/y, deflation persists Industrial profitability still pressured PBOC maintains loose policy bias China’s inflation data for January underscored persistent deflationary pressures in the world’s

Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today. Of course, yen trade continues in other centres. but its thnnier than normal. There is no fresh news. NFP ahead: Preview: January non-farm payrolls by the numbers. The consensus is high Goldman flags substantial downside risk to January jobs report This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Goldman Sachs expects January U.S. payrolls to undershoot forecasts, citing model effects and subdued hiring signals despite limited layoff pressure. Earlier: Preview: January non-farm payrolls by the numbers. The consensus is high Summary: Goldman sees January payrolls at +45k Forecast below market consensus Birth-death model a key downside risk Layoff indicators relatively supportive Labour market

The bitcoin price action is uninspiring and the chart is even worse. The last two weeks has been a disaster in the crypto market and it might not be over yet. Friday’s big bounce from $60,000 was impressive and it came with talk about some kind of idiosyncratic liquidation, with eyes focused on Asia. Yet

There aren’t any major expiries that will factor into play before the US labour market report, with the full list seen below. But if we do get a softer set of jobs data later, that could drag the dollar down further and see the larger one for EUR/USD at 1.2000 potentially factor in. It will

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Limassol, Cyprus – January 2026, The final quarter of 2025 brought a clear shift in market conditions. After a relatively calm Q3, volatility returned in force, and easyMarkets clients responded by increasing activity, particularly in precious metals. According to the broker’s Q4 2025 Market Recap, gold was the most traded instrument of the quarter, with

Fireside chat with Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, at the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) Business Leaders’ Series, Sydney. – RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warned inflation remains too high and signalled the Bank will tighten further if required to return it to target. Earlier: Australia housing finance jumps in Q4 as markets weigh May

A case of buy the rumour, sell the fact? That seems to be the most plausible explanation, with traders also arguably feeling heavily guarded amid intervention risks. Japan prime minister Takaichi solidified her position with the snap election now giving her a powerful mandate to push forward with her fiscal plans. The Takaichi trade remains

There are reports of a massive US military build up in the Middle East and now this: The WSJ reports that the White House is considering rolling out the Venezuela playbook on Iran. US officials have discussed whether to seize additional tankers involved in transporting Iranian oil to pressure Tehran but have held off so

China’s central bank reiterated a loose policy stance, pledging ample liquidity and stronger support for domestic demand while guarding against financial and currency risks. Summary: PBOC pledges appropriately loose policy Liquidity to remain ample RRR and rate cuts remain options Focus on domestic demand support Yuan flexibility reaffirmed China’s central bank struck a firmly supportive

China’s headline inflation readings for January 2026, the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), will be published today by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. These monthly indicators will be closely watched for fresh signals on underlying price trends, demand strength ahead of the Lunar New Year and industrial inflation pressures.

Senior Fed policymakers signalled rates may already be near neutral, favouring patience as inflation remains elevated and labour markets stay resilient. Summary: Fed officials signal patience on rates Policy seen near neutral levels Inflation still the primary concern Labour market holding up so far No rush for further cuts Two senior Federal Reserve policymakers on

JPMorgan sketched out an $8,000 decade-end gold scenario in a late January note as big banks lift targets and WGC data show record 2025 demand. Summary: JPMorgan mapped out a decade-end US$8,000 scenario Upside hinges on private allocation rise Goldman lifted its end-2026 target to US$5,400 WGC flags record 2025 demand 5,002t Macro hedging bid

Via oilprice.com — Oil prices remain firm, though rangebound, so far this week on heightened geopolitical risk and supply-demand signals. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly 20% of global oil flows, are keeping risk premiums elevated, with advisories for vessels in the region pushing crude

In coming months if inflation falls, labor market stays stable, no further rate cuts will be needed. More worried about inflation remaining stubbornly high. If see further material cooling in labor market, cutting rates could be appropriate. Current policy stance may be very close to neutral, providing little restraint. Cautiously optimistic current policy stance will

There’s a risk inflation could stick at 3% this year, needs to come down Job market stabilized into low hire, low fire landscape Both sides of Fed’s mandate have been under pressure Expects inflation to ease as year moves forward, but that’s just a forecast Is ‘cautiously optimistic’ about economic outlook Inflation is ‘still too

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1910 level. The expiries are not ones to tie to any technical significance, so the impact might be a bit more limited. The dollar was weaker yesterday and we’re now

Prior was +0.3% (revised to +0.2%) Retail inventories ex-autos +0.2% vs +0.2% expected Total inventories at $2,678.3 billion Inventory to sales ratio at 1.37 vs 1.40 prior Previously, wholesale inventories rose 0.2% in October. The thinking around tariffs and the shifts in the trade balance is that it should ultimately be a drag on inventories,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Crude oil continues to consolidate between key technical levels as traders await new developments from the US-Iran negotiations. Yesterday, Iran’s atomic energy chief said that Iran would be open to dilute its highly enriched uranium if the United States lifted all sanctions. The rangebound price action is clearly showing indecision in the market

Euro appreciation deserves attention but I do not see it as dramatic at all We do not target the exchange rate but we monitor it closely There was a brief uptick in EUR/USD exchange rate recently But we are now back to the range around 1.16 to 1.18, which is fully consistent with the assumptions

NASDAQ 100 futures (NQ) are currently rotating near the 25,330–25,350 area, a zone that has acted as the market’s balance point so far today. While price has moved both higher and lower intraday, neither buyers nor sellers have been able to force lasting acceptance outside this range. This makes 25,365 on the upside and 25,310

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a diverse landscape with notable performances in the technology, automotive, and entertainment sectors. Leading the way, the software & infrastructure segment within the technology sector is outperforming, with Microsoft (MSFT) climbing 1.06% and Oracle (ORCL) surging by 2.19%. Semiconductor companies also show resilience with Nvidia (NVDA) up 0.85%,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board yesterday despite the lack of catalysts. Most analysts blamed the report saying that China urged its banks to cut their exposure to US Treasuries. In such a case you would expect a negative reaction in bonds, but they finished the day higher. We did see

None of this lot is likely to move around markets too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior quarter was 0.8% Employment benefits 0.7% vs 0.8% prior quarter Employment wages 0.7% vs 0.8% prior quarter The easing in wage growth supports the rate cutting cycle. Powell has mentioned many times that he doesn’t see inflationary pressure coming from wage growth given the easing in labour market conditions. The ECI is now back

XM has launched its biggest ever promotion which is giving clients the opportunity to earn a new deposit bonus each week of up to $8,750.Over the six-week promotion period, every client can earn up to $52,500 in total by reaching trading targets. The promotion runs from 10 February through 23 March 2026 and involves trading

The dollar eased broadly, but Goldman Sachs says Japan’s post-election fiscal outlook keeps USD/JPY upside risks alive, with volatility and intervention risk set to rise. Summary: The US dollar softened overall, but analysts see Japan’s election outcome reinforcing upside risks for USD/JPY via higher fiscal spending expectations. Goldman Sachs expects implied volatility in USD/JPY to

For a company to successfully go public, it may seem essential to have solid finances, but in reality, what matters most is that market conditions are not just favorable, but bullish. While this did not appear to be an issue at the start of the year, confidence has started to fade as concerns have grown

After the modest gains yesterday, we’re seeing precious metals cool off a little in trading so far today. After a setback late last week, there was a notable bounce from the lows especially in silver. The precious metal itself is up 27% from its Friday low near $64 but the bounce we’re seeing since remains

Oil prices are stuck in a consolidation as US-Iran negotiations keep the market on edge US January NFIB small business optimism index 99.3 vs 99.8 expected The Nasdaq is stuck in a range as traders await key US data releases this week NASDAQ Futures Technical Analysis Today: Key Price Levels That Will Decide Direction ECB

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq continues to erase the losses experienced last week as we approach the key US data releases. It’s going to be a big week as we get the US NFP report tomorrow and the US CPI on Friday. The main risk is that hot data triggers a hawkish repricing which could weigh

The US and India struck a sweeping trade deal covering $500bn of purchases, tariff cuts and digital trade, reshaping bilateral commercial ties. Summary: The White House said India will purchase more than $500bn of US goods across energy, technology, agriculture and coal. India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on US industrial goods and a broad

Prior 99.5 Full report here The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.2 points in January to 99.3 and remained above its 52-year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, three increased and seven decreased. Expected real sales volume was the only component with substantial change, increasing by 6 points. The Uncertainty Index

Australian business activity cooled slightly in January, but easing cost pressures offered fresh encouragement on the inflation outlook. Earlier: Weak Australian consumer sentiment backs March RBA pause, Westpac still sees May hike Summary: Australian business confidence edged higher in January, while business conditions eased modestly from December. Sales and profits slowed slightly but remain around

Justin posted yesterday on: China calls on banks to reduce US Treasuries exposure amid “market volatility” – report I added a little more: ICYMI bombshell: China tells banks to curb US Treasury exposure, “sell-America” nerves China is letting the yuan rise at the same time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was 0.4% Export prices M/M 0.3% vs 0.1% expected Prior 0.5% Import prices Y/Y 0.0% vs 0.1% prior Export prices Y/Y 3.1% vs 3.3% prior The US Import and Export Price Indexes are monthly reports released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that track the change in prices for goods and services traded

The Japan snap election result was expected, with Takaichi and the ruling LDP party picking up a landslide victory. Takaichi has more than solidified her mandate and power positioning, with a ‘supermajority’ also being achieved. That being said, the reaction in the Japanese yen currency hasn’t quite reflected that for now. The yen is sitting

S&P 500 futures are flat just ahead of the open. Here are some of the stocks on the move. The Big Movers (>5%) S&P Global (SPGI) -15.9%: The biggest mover on the board, and not in a good way. Weak profit and a disappointing full-year outlook are hammering the stock. Datadog (DDOG) +14%: A double-digit

Japan prime minister Takaichi solidified her standing in the snap election over the weekend, with her ruling LDP party claiming a landslide victory and securing a ‘supermajority’ mandate. That allows her to proceed with her fiscal expansion, spreading her dovish wings in pushing for a suspension of food sales tax for two years. The Takaichi

Prior was +0.6% Details: Ex-autos 0.0% vs +0.3% expected Prior ex autos +0.5% (revised to +0.4%) Ex autos and gas 0.0% vs +0.4% prior(revised to +0.3%) Control group -0.1%% vs +0.4% expected Prior control +0.4% Retail sales y/y % vs +3.33% prior USD/JPY was trading down 72 pips to 155.13 prior to this report and

Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet in the first week of April, according to Politico. The pair spoke last week and that may have helped to finalize the agenda for the meeting. They previously held a high-profile bilateral meeting on October 30, 2025, in Busan, South Korea, on the sidelines of the APEC (Asia-Pacific

Alphabet is set to test investor appetite with a rare 100-year bond, reviving a structure unseen in tech since the dot-com era. Summary: Alphabet is planning to issue a rare 100-year bond as part of a large multi-tranche debt sale. The century bond will be denominated in sterling, marking Alphabet’s debut in the UK bond

For some context, the BOJ board nominee here will be one to replace Asahi Noguchi – whose term will end on 31 March. Noguchi was a former economics professor at Senshu University and joined to BOJ board in April 2021. He has always been one of the more dovish members, advocating for a more “measured”

Singapore’s economy finished 2025 on a stronger footing than expected, prompting authorities to lift 2026 growth and export forecasts. Summary: Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected in Q4, beating official advance estimates on both annual and quarterly measures. Full-year 2025 growth was revised higher, confirming strong momentum into year-end. Authorities upgraded the 2026 GDP growth

Australian consumer confidence slumped again in February, strengthening the case for an RBA pause in March, though analysts still see a May rate hike if inflation stays sticky. Summary: Australian consumer sentiment fell for a third straight month in February, sinking deeper into pessimistic territory. Higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures are weighing heavily on

A report that China is nudging banks to trim US Treasury exposure added to “sell-America” nerves, but markets still assume any shift would be gradual, not a disorderly dump. Justin had the breaking on this here yesterday: China calls on banks to reduce US Treasuries exposure amid “market volatility” – report but I wanted to

IC Markets, a leading global forex and CFD provider, will participate in iFX Expo Dubai 2026 as an Elite Sponsor, reinforcing its continued investment in technology, partnerships, and long-term growth across global markets. With nearly two decades of experience serving traders worldwide, IC Markets will use the event to highlight its institutional-grade infrastructure, deep liquidity

Japanese equities surged to record highs as strong earnings and post-election fiscal optimism fuelled a powerful rally in both the Nikkei and Topix. Info via Reuters reporting. Earlier: Japan election clears path for fiscal push, analysts see equity upside but debt risks Summary: Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix both hit record highs as earnings optimism

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda. The markets might just chop around amid lack of catalysts. There’s a lot of noise at the moment as we approach the US NFP report tomorrow, so be careful out there. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, the highlights will be the

Japan’s new government is pushing to fast-track its budget and tax agenda, with food tax cuts and funding options now under active discussion. Summary: Japan’s finance minister said the government aims to pass next year’s budget and tax reform as quickly as possible. Officials pledged to limit the impact of any budget delays on households.

BoE’s Mann warned US tariffs are lifting UK inflation, as China pushes higher export prices onto Britain rather than the United States. Summary: Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann said US tariffs are feeding into higher UK inflation via Chinese export pricing. China has cut prices for exports to the US but raised prices to

The Trump administration is preparing a sweeping rollback of US climate regulation, upending emissions rules and reshaping the outlook for energy, autos and clean-tech markets. Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. Summary: The Trump administration plans to repeal the 2009 “endangerment finding,” the legal foundation for US greenhouse-gas regulation. The move would remove federal

Trump has posted a bit of a rant to his social media app. The main gist seems to be about a bridge. Anyway, USD/CAD is up a few tics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NY Fed January survey: One-year inflation expectations fall to 3.1% from 3.4% Trump and Xi will meet in the first week of April ECB’s Lagarde: We expect inflation to stabilize at our 2% medium term target ECB unlikely to react to a temporary dip below 2% inflation – Nagel Bank of France Governor Villeroy announces

The People’s Bank of China is still letting the CNY climb higher. Along with this news I think this is all very significant: ICYMI bombshell: China tells banks to curb US Treasury exposure, “sell-America” nerves As Trump fumbles the ball, China is picking it up and running hard with it. — The People’s Bank of

South Korea is moving to screen US investment projects ahead of parliamentary approval, signalling a more cautious approach amid trade tensions and tariff risks. Summary: South Korea plans to introduce a system to preliminarily review US investment projects before related legislation is passed. The move is aimed at managing risks and avoiding misunderstandings amid renewed

UK retail sales started 2026 on a strong footing, with January marking the fastest growth since August as food spending and in-store activity rebounded. Earlier: BoE’s Mann says US Trump tariffs are pushing Chinese export prices higher for UK Summary: UK retailers reported their strongest sales growth since August, pointing to a solid start to

US-India trade deal targets $500bn in purchases, slashes tariffs WSJ: Trump to scrap landmark climate finding in sweeping regulatory rollback China’s onshore yuan, CNY, hits its highest since 10 May 2023 Japan pushes fast budget passage as food tax cuts, funding debated Vitol lifts long-term oil demand outlook, sees peak delayed to mid-2030s Japan stocks

Vitol has pushed global oil demand higher and further into the future, citing slower EV uptake and resilient transport fuel use. Summary: Vitol has lifted its long-term oil demand outlook, with global consumption now seen peaking at around 112 million barrels per day. Peak demand is pushed back to the mid-2030s, driven mainly by slower

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9208 Earlier: ICYMI bombshell: China tells banks to curb US Treasury exposure, “sell-America” nerves PBOC inject 311.4bn yuan via 7-day RRs @1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The surprise exit of France’s central bank chief is unlikely to shift ECB policy, with analysts pointing to rare unity among euro zone rate setters. Summary: The early departure of Francois Villeroy de Galhau is not expected to alter the ECB’s current policy stance. Villeroy was a prominent policy dove, but analysts say the ECB

Analysts say Japan’s election outcome clears the path for fiscal stimulus under Takaichi, boosting growth and equities but reviving concerns over debt, yields and the yen. I was basically saying all this and more throughout Monday, but recapping some analysts takes yere. Analysts say a single-party Lower House majority strengthens Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ability

The US dollar is the G10 laggard today by a long shot. It’s a sharp move lower after some signs of life last week. What’s behind the dollar selling: 1) Jobs Last week we got five numbers that all pointed to a weakening of the US jobs picture: ADP employment ISM services employment component Initial

Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau unexpectedly quit today, citing personal reasons. In a letter to central bank employees, he said he was offered a role to run a foundation for troubled youngsters and couldn’t refuse. “A bit more than a year before the conclusion of my second term, it seems to me

There are some chunky expiries that stand out on the day but none of which are likely to be of any impact. The full list can be seen below. There are some large ones for EUR/USD and AUD/USD in particular, holding at the 1.1900 and 0.6900 levels respectively. The former is the most likely to

One of the themes in markets right now is that the ‘old economy’ stocks are rising while the AI stocks are sliding. It’s something of a mean reversion trade but could also highlight some positive cyclical signs in things like manufacturing and transport. But here is an ‘old economy’ company that I didn’t not expect

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel indicated that the ECB will likely overlook a temporary dip in inflation below its 2% target, citing forecasts that suggest a medium-term recovery. Despite Eurozone inflation falling to 1.7% in January, the central bank remains steady on its 2% key rate. This stance is bolstered by resilient core inflation and wage

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar had a good run last week on some unwinding of overstretched US Dollar shorts and mostly stronger US data. The bullish momentum eventually faded as we got a very weak US Job Openings report that coupled with the selloff in the stock market weighed on the market pricing. The

We heard from Lagarde last week in the ECB press conference so we’re not breaking any new ground here. The market is pricing in just a 20% chance of a cut this year at any point. We expect inflation to stabilize at our 2% medium term target Our data dependent approach serves us well in

Japan’s top officials have stepped up coordinated yen warnings, signalling rising intervention risk as authorities push back against rapid and one-sided FX moves. Summary Japan’s intervention rhetoric has intensified across senior officials Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara flagged concern over one-sided FX moves Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned over the weekend she may engage markets

Gold has broken above the earlier session range and is trading up 2% to $5058. Silver is up 5.7% to $82.46 and also at the best levels of the day. Risk appetite is picking up again in broader markets and the S&P 500 is up 31 points or 0.46%. That’s a nice turnaround after it

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) punched above their weight and the results were one-sided, with the opposition losing roughly half of their pre-election standing. The LDP claimed 316 seats with their coalition partner Nippon Ishin claiming 36 seats, far exceeding the two-thirds (310+) needed for a ‘supermajority’. It’s a landslide victory for Japan prime

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar had a good run last week on some unwinding of overstretched US Dollar shorts and mostly stronger US data. The bullish momentum eventually faded as we got a very weak US Job Openings report that coupled with the selloff in the stock market weighed on the market pricing. The

The kiwi stabilised after early losses, but softer NZ data and Australia’s hawkish shift leave NZD consolidating rather than trending higher. Summary: NZD eased last week as softer labour data pushed out expectations for RBNZ tightening Risk-off tone supported the USD, keeping the kiwi under pressure early NZD/USD stabilised above 0.60 as equities rebounded into

The US dollar is under broad pressure to start the week. Last week saw a series of misses on US jobs data including: ADP ISM services Challenger job cuts Initial jobless claims This week includes an unusual Wednesday non-farm payrolls release and the market looks to be fleeing US dollars ahead of it. The consensus

1 year inflation at 3.1% vs 3.4% in December 3-year inflation unchanged at 3% 5-year inflation unchanged at 3% Expectations for credit availability declined Labor market views mostly improved Home price inflation 2.9% vs 3.0% prior Households less hopeful on current and future financial situation No big surprises here and there was no market reaction.

A group of companies that operated under the Octa brand announced it is opting out of the brand-sharing agreement. Bringing its participation in Octa to a close, it will emerge as Elev8, an independent international brokerage brand, effective 9 February 2026. The changes will affect only the brand identity, while the operational processes remain unchanged.

Over the weekend: China gold reserves climb further, buying continues for a 15th straight month This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Europe must prepare for greater financial safe haven role Risks to growth and inflation are balanced Inflation expectations are fully anchored, and FX movements already factored in Policy stance is appropriate A change in environment is needed to change our policy stance There are no surprises in his remarks, mainly just reaffirming what we know

Headlines: Japan in the spotlight to start the new week Japan PM Takaichi says won’t resort to debt issuance to fund food sales tax suspension US futures dip lower as tech shares wobble again It’s a pivotal week for the US Dollar as traders turn their focus to the US NFP report Is the worst

Sector Overview Today’s stock market landscape reveals a mixture of performance across various sectors, with particular focus on the tech and semiconductor sectors. Analyzing the heatmap, we notice a divergence in performance across these industries as well as significant moves in healthcare. 📉 Technology Sector Oracle (ORCL) emerged as a standout performer with a gain

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than the Swiss Consumer Confidence data which is not going to change anything for the SNB and the market reaction will therefore be muted. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we will just have a few central bank speakers. It’s very

Jimmy Lai’s 20-year sentence risks becoming a new diplomatic flashpoint, sharpening tensions between China and Western governments ahead of key US–China talks. Summary: Jimmy Lai sentenced to 20 years in prison in Hong Kong Case risks becoming a flashpoint in US–China relations ahead of expected Trump–Xi talks Donald Trump has publicly pressed Xi Jinping to

Will examine the schedule and funding of plan to suspend sales tax on food by two years Will not resort to debt issuance to fund suspension of sales tax on food To seek the such measures at the earliest date possible by securing non-tax revenues, reviews to subsidies Must pull Japan out of excessively tight

A group of companies that operated under the Octa brand announced it is opting out of the brand-sharing agreement. Bringing its participation in Octa to a close, it will emerge as Elev8, an independent international brokerage brand, effective 9 February 2026. The changes will affect only the brand identity, while the operational processes remain unchanged.

The stakes don’t get any higher than this, at least in terms of US economic data releases. In the days ahead, we will be getting the US retail sales, labour market report, and the consumer price inflation report; all within a span of 72 hours. Typically, you’d see all three reports get spread out across

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has been in consolidation mode ever since the big crash as the lack of key catalysts kept traders on edge. Much like for gold, the fundamentals are still against rising prices due to improving US data and easing geopolitical tensions. Silver has a high correlation with gold but it’s more volatile being

Prior -1.8 That marks a third straight month of improving sentiment in the euro area, with some good news in the opening two months of 2026 at least. This is the first positive reading since July last year, reaffirming some added optimism as we get into the new year. Of note, the expectations index also

The rebound on Friday was headlined by the Dow crossing the 50,000 mark but tech also managed to bounce back a little at the end of last week. But today, the jitters are creeping back in as we see Nasdaq futures lead the declines now in a notable drop in the past hour. S&P 500

After holding rates last week and stressing caution at his press conference, Bailey’s Sunday AlUla speech reinforced a data-dependent stance, with AI a long-run theme but inflation confidence still the near-term hurdle. Earlier re GBP: UK PM Starmer resignation rumours put Monday in focus as Mandelson scandal deepens Summary: Last week: the Bank of England

BoK governor contender Lee says it’s too early to talk tightening, urging tougher housing taxes while calling USD/KRW’s current range broadly appropriate. Summary: Former Bank of Korea board member Lee Seung-heon, a leading governor contender, says it’s too early to signal policy tightening He argues Korea should lean more on tougher property ownership taxes to

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar had a good run last week on some unwinding of overstretched US Dollar shorts and mostly stronger US data. The bullish momentum eventually faded as we got a very weak US Job Openings report that coupled with the selloff in the stock market weighed on the market pricing. The

Japan’s finance ministry escalated yen warnings over the weekend and into Monday, signalling readiness to intervene as officials stress coordination with the US and vigilance against disorderly FX moves. Summary: Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned over the weekend she may engage markets to stabilise the yen Katayama confirmed close coordination with US Treasury Secretary Scott

The yen dropped early: Yen weaker early trade. Japan markets brace for renewed Takaichi trade after landslide win Weak yen update: Japan election landslide Takaichi super-majority, revives yen pressure But intervention comments from the finance minister, and then her deputy, has seen it rocket higher (USD/JPY lower): Japan steps up yen intervention warnings as officials

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9354 OMOs: PBOC inject 113bn yuan via 7-day RRs @1.4% Earlier: China gold reserves climb further, buying continues for a 15th straight month This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A verbal yen intervention warning issued. The finance minister did give a heads up to the likelihood of this over the weekend: Yen weaker early trade. Japan markets brace for renewed Takaichi trade after landslide win Weak yen update: Japan election landslide Takaichi super-majority, revives yen pressure This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The report notes that Beijing officials have advised financial institutions to pare down their holdings of US Treasuries, citing worries about “concentration risks” and “market volatility”. The Chinese regulators are said to urge banks to limit purchases of US government bonds while also commanding those with high exposure to cut down on their positions. Naturally,

China’s RWA tokenisation framework is sparking a compliance-driven rush into select names, while keeping onshore token activity banned and offshore issuance tightly vetted. China’s new stance on real-world asset (RWA) tokenisation lifted related stocks in China and Hong Kong on Monday Onshore RWA token business remains not allowed, but regulators will vet offshore issuance backed

Bitcoin rebound analysis today – what traders and investors should focus on after a 21% surge Have a good week, crypto traders and investors. I know many of you are wondering if the rebound we started seeing on ate Thursday and Friday is the real thing or not. I will start with my video before

Amid all the volatility in markets, precious metals continue to be among those being closely watched still. Both gold and silver are showing lively signs of a better recovery to start the new week, trading higher so far today. But after a setback last week, it’s best to be reminded that we’re still caught in

BoK governor contender Lee says too early for tightening, backs higher property taxes China’s RWA tokenisation rules lift related stocks as compliance race begins Jimmy Lai 20 year prison sentence raises new tensions between China and the West Japan escalates yen warnings as Kihara joins Katayama and Mimura. Supportive for JPY. Yen has surged after

The big news is this: Yen weaker early trade. Japan markets brace for renewed Takaichi trade after landslide win Weak yen update: Japan election landslide Takaichi super-majority, revives yen pressure UK PM Starmer resignation rumours put Monday in focus as Mandelson scandal deepens Calendar … m’eh: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian household spending eased in December after strong sales-driven gains, but solid quarterly volumes underline why the RBA has turned hawkish on inflation. Summary: Australian household spending fell 0.4% m/m in December, after strong gains in October–November Annual spending growth slowed to 5.0%, from 6.3% previously Quarterly sales volumes rose 0.9%, adding an estimated 0.3ppt

Bloomberg have a piece up that is getting some attention. Warsh Call for Fed-Treasury Accord Stirs Debate in $30 Trillion Bond Market (gated) I’ve summarised. — Warsh’s push to rethink the Fed–Treasury relationship has reignited fears that closer coordination could undermine monetary independence and reshape US bond markets. Summary: Kevin Warsh has floated the idea

Oil lower. The big news of course is from Japan: Yen weaker early trade. Japan markets brace for renewed Takaichi trade after landslide win Weak yen update: Japan election landslide Takaichi super-majority, revives yen pressure USD/JPY update, a pullback from the thin market opening highs and testing towards them now: This article was written by

Japan’s December wage data showed improving nominal pay but another fall in real wages, keeping pressure on the BoJ to move cautiously after its December hike. Summary: Japan’s real wages fell 0.1% y/y in December, extending a year-long contraction Nominal pay growth improved, but still lagged inflation enough to keep purchasing power negative Overtime pay

Updating major FX. Its still early, just 0630 in Japan and 0530 in Hong Kong and Singapore. Pretty much just New Zealand and Australia active right now. Be wary of low liquidity thin trade until markets thicken up in the hours ahead. Takaichi’s super-majority win clears the way for fiscal expansion, lifting stocks but renewing

Unconfirmed resignation talk has put Monday in focus, with Starmer’s response to the Mandelson fallout now the key driver for near-term GBP and gilt risk. Summary: Resignation talk is unconfirmed; markets watch for a potential Monday statement Pressure on PM Keir Starmer has intensified over the Mandelson–Epstein fallout and party anger Starmer is expected to

Takaichi’s landslide election win revives reflation trades, lifting stocks but renewing pressure on the yen as officials warn intervention remains firmly on the table. Yen is weaker in very early trade: As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are

Sun: Japanese Average Cash Earnings, Japanese Snap Election Mon: Swiss Consumer Confidence (Jan), Mexican Inflation (Jan), US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jan), Australian Household Spending (Dec) Tue: EIA STEO; Norwegian prelim. CPI (Jan), US NFIB (Jan), Weekly ADP, ECI (Q4), Export/Import Prices (Dec) Wed: BoC Minutes (Jan), OPEC MOMR; ECB Wage Tracker (post-meeting); Chinese Inflation (Jan),

We are through the biggest market cap names on earnings and it was dramatic, with 10% moves in some of the world’s biggest companies. Next week switches the focus back to some smaller companies but many with good insight on the real economy, which is tough to pin down right now. Monday The week starts

China gold reserves at the end of January 2026: 74.19 million troy ounces In December 2025: 74.15 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of January 2026: $369.58 billion In December 2025: $319.45 billion Amid the surging run higher in prices to start the year, the value of China’s gold reserves have

UMich February consumer sentiment 57.3 vs 55.0 expected Canada January employment report -24.8K vs +7.0K expected Jensen Huang: This is a once-in-a-generation infrastructure build out Fed’s Jefferson says jobs market is stabilizing and inflation should moderate Fed’s Daly: Must watch both sides of mandate, situation feels precarious Fed’s Daly says she leans towards more cuts

Leans towards more cuts in 2026, hard to say if it’s one or two Says she keeps an open mind on rates To cut, you’d need to be more confident on inflation or see labor market as more challenged that currently Workers feel they are on the knife’s edge If job market goes from ‘no

Two weeks ago the world was abuzz with precious metals bullish talk. Gold had rallied that week to $4982 from $4629 in the third straight week of gains. It was a near-euphoric time for the gold bulls, nearly hitting the once-dreamlike level of $5000. If you were to ask the bulls then, if they would

There’s a moment in every drawdown, every flash crash, every this time is different panic where something shifts inside you. It’s not just fear — it’s the desperate need for someone, anyone, to tell you what’s going to happen next. Every trader wants certainty in a world that just reminded you it offers none. I’ve

RBI holds rates at 5.25% as inflation stays low and growth outlook remains steady Reserve Bank of India unchanged, as widely expected Reserve Bank India monetary policy decision due 10am local (0430 GMT/2330 US Eastern time) Recap: BoJ policymaker flags need for further hikes as inflation nears target India eyes up to $80bn in Boeing

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is on CNBC: The hyperscalers are so constrained by chips All of these companies cash flows are going to start rising We are addressing the largest opportunity in history Nobody uses AI better than META and they see a much large future potential for it Every company is seeing the same

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kicked off 2026 by raising the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent at its first Board meeting of the year on Tuesday 3 February, marking the first rate increase in over two years. The decision reversed part of the easing cycle seen during 2025

Comments from a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry: US-Iran talks are over “for now” A reporter from State TV says unsure when talks might restart Keep an eye out for Iran headlines. Oil is current nearly flat, down 13 cents to $63.16. I’d estimate there’s at least at $3 gepolitical premium in oil at the

The Fed’s Jefferson is cautiously optimistic about the economy but isn’t tipping anything in terms of rate cuts or hikes. U.S. central bank’s current monetary policy ‘well positioned’ to deal with what likely lies ahead. Future moves to be driven by data and views on outlook. Stance allows ‘leeway’ for supply side of economy to

You can always count on the big, round numbers. We’ve seen it before in bitcoin where it’s all about the numbers with lots of zeros behind them. That was the case again today as bitcoin reached a low of $60,017 before embarking on an impressive rebound to $69,000, or 15%. The round numbers seem to

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a few low tier releases that won’t change anything for the market or the central banks. Expect to hear a lot of ECB speakers throughout the session as it’s usually the case after an ECB policy meeting. They are unlikely

Prior was 56.4 Conditions 58.3 vs 54.9 expected Expectations 56.6 vs 56.7 expected Inflation numbers 1-year inflation 3.5% vs 4.0% prior 5 year inflation 3.4% vs 3.3% prior I don’t know if this survey tells us anything about consumer spending anymore. It’s got a long tradition but everything’s been so deeply politicized that people just

Gold and silver heavy again in Asia morning trade. Earlier … not bullish: More on CME raises margins on COMEX gold and silver futures after extreme volatility Hang on,. I gotta get this …. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Low-hiring, low firing environment may persist or may quickly change to a no-hiring, more-firing labor market Businesses are cautiously optimistic, workers are not so sure. The signal here — I think — is that the Fed could pivot quickly. The comments are from a short LinkedIn post. Here’s the full text: Is the economic outlook

Renewed attention on US advice to leave Iran reflects old guidance, but it reinforces lingering geopolitical risks rather than signalling a new escalation. Summary: Renewed social-media attention on US advice to “leave Iran now” reflects recycled guidance from mid-January, not new escalation. The warning stems from widespread anti-government protests, crackdowns and detention risks, not a

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW We’ve had a rough three-day losing streak for the Nasdaq and other major stock market indices. It’s not clear what was the catalyst although it coincided with the release of Anthropic’s new AI tool called Claude Plugins. It basically demonstrated that a large portion of software could be obsolete and weighed on tech

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.5% House price index +1.0% y/y Prior +0.3%; revised to +0.4% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Japan’s megabanks see higher yields restoring the appeal of JGBs, even as near-term losses and policy risks argue for a cautious rebuild. In brief, via Reuters report. Summary: Japan’s biggest banks say they are ready to rebuild JGB holdings as higher yields improve returns, despite rising unrealised losses. MUFG and SMFG see long-term yields stabilising,

It’s been a day of mixed fortunes for US futures so far today. Tech shares were battered in Wall Street yesterday and that continued after Amazon faced a backlash on their earnings reporting. Big tech continues to try and justify their increased AI infrastructure spending but investors are slowly but surely moving on to the

There was no government shutdown to delay the Canadian employment data so it gets the Friday morning spotlight all to itself. Prior was +8.2K Employment change: -24.8K vs -5.0K estimate, +8.2K prior Unemployment rate: 6.5% vs 6.6% estimate, 6.8% prior Full-time employment change: +44.9K vs +50.2 last month Part-time employment change: -69.7K vs -42.0K last

The mood in markets is improving prior to the US open with S&P 500 futures up 0.5%. That’s a turnaround from earlier losses and may reflect a re-evaluation on the disruption to software and AI capex. Here are some pre-market movers: AMZN (-8.9%): Amazon shares tumbled after the company missed profit expectations and alarmed investors

Have a look at the IGV ETF, which has become the poster child for the latest market selloff. It’s down 4.9% today and 32% since October. The thinking is clear: AI agents are going to rule the internet. You won’t go to websites anymore, you’ll ask AI to do things and everything will happen in

As we track today’s market movements from investinglive.com, it’s clear the tech sector is experiencing a remarkable day led by notable gains in the semiconductor industry, contrasting with a notable dip in Amazon’s performance. Let’s dive into the dynamics driving these shifts. 🌟 Sector Overview The technology sector stands out, particularly the semiconductor industry, showcasing

Bullock framed the rate hike as a response to renewed, broad-based inflation and tighter capacity constraints, with the RBA now focused on whether price pressures prove persistent. Summary: Bullock said the board lifted the cash rate because the economy is more capacity constrained than previously judged, meaning policy needed to be tighter. She said the

There’s a risk that we draw too much comfort from dip in inflation in April Inflation falling to target earlier is good news Policy must address any remaining persistence Private sector growth is subdued but positive The labor market has eased quite significantly We should not overinterpret changes to growth outlook in February BoE forecasts

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold is now consolidating between major technical levels as traders await new catalysts before picking a direction. The fundamentals are still against rising prices, so we either get stuck in a wide range below the January’s high or will see another flush lower in the next weeks or months. Next week is going

With the absence of the US jobs report today, it is leaving markets to fend for themselves in closing out the week. And so far, the more nervous and jittery mood all around is still permeating as we look to the session ahead. In particular, risk trades are being shaken up hard amid a combination

RBI leaves repo rate at 5.25%, and SDF (standing facility rate) rate, which is the floor of the monetary policy corridor, at 5.00% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan markets are watching whether Takaichi’s likely election win delivers political stability without reigniting fiscal fears that pressure the yen and JGBs. Summary: Japan heads into a national election with polls pointing to a strong mandate for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, potentially reshaping the policy and market backdrop. A decisive win could stabilise politics, but

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 58 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 45 bps (49% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 6 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 5 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by

Earlier today, we had Germany and France release their latest trade figures for December and in summary the whole of 2025. There were quite a few things to note but a couple of standout points were: China once again overtaking the US as being Germany’s top trade partner German exports to the US declined by

Headlines: US equities look to recover a little after a rough few days How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? Oil prices in the spotlight as focus remains on US-Iran negotiations in Oman ECB policymakers repeat policy is in “good place”; ease tone on euro’s strength BOJ policymaker Masu says not thinking

A potential $70–80bn Boeing order pipeline would be a headline boost for US aerospace, but markets still need detail on timing, funding and how much of the wider US–India trade package is binding. Summary: India is ready to place up to US$80bn of Boeing aircraft orders as part of a broader push to expand US–India

As it’s usually the case after an ECB policy meeting, policymakers are out in full force sharing their views about monetary policy and the economy. As a reminder, the ECB yesterday held interest rates steady as widely expected and kept everything unchanged. It was a non-event basically. The focus was mainly on President Lagarde and

There is just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1800 level. Similar to the day before, this isn’t one that ties too closely to any technical significance. However, we are seeing price action weave in and around the figure

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices are consolidating between key levels as traders await new developments from the US-Iran negotiations. On Wednesday, prices surged after reports suggested that US-Iran talks scheduled for today were called off. The gains were eventually erased after Iran’s foreign minister said the talks were still on. Given the low probabilities of a

JOLTS job openings 6.542m vs 7.200m expected US weekly initial jobless claims 231K vs 212K expected US January Challenger layoffs 108.435k vs 35.553k prior ECB leaves deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% as widely expected in February decision ECB’s Lagarde: Stronger euro adds to external challenges Anthropic releases Opus 4.6, highlights financial analyses ability, software stocks

Summary: The RBI is expected to hold rates steady at its 10:00 a.m. IST decision, with inflation pressures contained and tariff risks easing. Recent budget measures to support manufacturing and exports, alongside a trade deal with the US, have improved the policy backdrop. Attention is shifting from rates to liquidity conditions, with banks pushing for

Modern traders face rising costs and tighter capital demands, so many now turn to performance-based funding. These evaluation models reward discipline, reduce personal risk and offer a clearer path for anyone aiming to trade at a professional level. Traders have seen the limits of relying on personal savings or bank loans, especially when markets move

The RBI held rates and its neutral stance as expected, signalling confidence in domestic growth while flagging rising external headwinds. The Reserve Bank of India held policy steady as expected, with the MPC unanimously keeping the repo rate at 5.25%. SDF (standing facility rate) rate, which is the floor of the monetary policy corridor, unchanged

For some context, the French trade deficit is still on recovery mode after having hit its highest point in 2022 amid the whole Russia-Ukraine conflict. That drove up import prices for energy by almost double compared to 2021, resulting in a trade deficit of €161.7. As such, the narrowing to a deficit of €69.2 billion

Prior +0.8% At the same time, we’re getting German trade figures released as per the following: December trade balance €17.1 billion vs €14.1 billion expected Prior €13.1 billion Exports +4.0% m/m Prior -2.5% Imports +1.4% m/m Prior +0.8% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Japan Household Spending -2.9% m/m (expected -1.9%, prior +6.2%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Kazaks is one to say that a “big and rapid” strengthening in the euro could warrant a policy response by the ECB. And that is something that will stand out among the recent remarks, which includes ECB president Lagarde’s one yesterday. In her press conference, Lagarde mentioned that “a stronger euro could bring inflation down

Masu’s comments reinforce a more hawkish tilt at the BoJ, keeping April hike expectations alive as yen weakness sharpens inflation risks. Summary: BoJ board member Kazuyuki Masu called for timely rate hikes to prevent underlying inflation from overshooting the 2% target. Masu said underlying inflation is still below target but “drawing very close”, with deflationary

Russian crude discounts to China have hit record levels as sellers chase demand amid uncertainty over India’s future imports. Summary: Discounts on Russian crude exports to China have widened to record levels as sellers cut prices to retain demand amid the risk of losing Indian buyers. The move follows a US–India trade agreement that includes

CME raises initial margin on its Comex 100 Gold futures to 9% from 8% CME raises initial margin on its Comex 5000 silver futures to 18% from 15% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BOJ is not behind the curve in dealing with inflation It is obvious that we should not raise rates too quickly in a way that derails the economic recovery I’m not saying that food prices are rising in a way that warrants immediate policy action Not thinking of a particular pace in raising rates Don’t

At a glance: Amazon Q4 2026 results were mixed but solid, with a slight EPS miss offset by a clear top-line beat. EPS came in at $1.95 vs $1.96 expected, while net sales rose to $213.39bn, ahead of the $211.49bn consensus. Operating income ($24.98bn) and margin (11.7%) were effectively in line with expectations, signalling continued

BTC up around 4% while ETH up just a little more that that. Crypto has seen epic selling. BTC was circa 125K in October 2025. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I think the important thing to remember about the White House is that the Secretary of State is Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants and a Floridian. There is absolutely no love for Communist Cuba in Florida or the diaspora. In all likelihood, the Venezuelan regime was likely allowed to hold onto power in

CME’s margin hike is the latest sign volatility is still driving the metals tape, lifting the cost of leverage just as positioning is being forced lighter. Summary: CME has lifted initial margin requirements again for key precious metals contracts, raising the cash required to hold positions. COMEX 100 gold futures initial margin is set to

Analysts say gold’s pullback has not shaken its structural support, with central bank demand and macro fundamentals still underpinning the medium-term outlook. The note this is all from (in summary) is from earlier this week. Gold has since dropped more but the points made are still well worth reading. Summary: Analysts argue the latest pullback

Japan’s weak December household spending underscores inflation’s bite on consumers but is unlikely to derail expectations for BOJ tightening later this year. Summary: Japan’s December household spending fell sharply, badly undershooting expectations both month-on-month and year-on-year. The data suggest inflation pressure is biting into real household incomes, weighing on consumption late in 2025. Analysts see

Anthropic is on a roll this month. Their plug-ins look like a major disruption to software stocks and now they’re out with an update as Opus 4.5 gets updated to 4.6. The first thing they highlighted was its ability to do financial analysis. “Opus 4.6 can also apply its improved abilities to a range of

Everyone who has been in markets long enough has held an asset that looks like this. It’s not fun. Maybe you’re an autistic, unfeeling robot but if you’re not, it’s brutal. Losing money in financial markets is a sure way to make you feel like an idiot. As the losses mount, you lose sleep and

Sector Overview The stock market is displaying a vivid patchwork of reds and greens today, signaling mixed performances across various sectors. Technology, notably, is experiencing substantial fluctuations. Big names like Google (GOOG) have taken a hit, decreasing by a significant 7.24%. Similarly, Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) have suffered declines of 4.39% and 2.20% respectively,

Growth driven by services, notably in IT and communications Manufacturing is resilient Food inflation increased Construction momentum picking up Government spending should strengthen demand Indications of underlying inflation have changed little in recent months and remain consistent with costs Forward looking indicators and surveys point to a continued moderation in labor costs Most measures of

China’s central bank leaned on longer-dated liquidity tools to smooth funding conditions ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Summary: PBoC injected liquidity via both 7-day and 14-day reverse repos Use of 14-day RRs is unusual (not too unusual though!) and notable Move likely linked to upcoming Lunar New Year holiday cash demand Signals focus

Headlines: Precious metals hold losses after the plunge in Asia trading earlier BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in February meeting decision BOE governor Bailey says there should be scope for some further easing of policy USDJPY continues to surge towards the intervention level; Japanese officials look hopeless Bitcoin teeters towards $70,000 mark as

We last heard from Macklem in the BOC decision last Wednesday. Here are his latest comments: Restructuring of the Canadian economy and pick-up in productivity will take years Transition to new economy could be more painful than we’d like Canada needs to lean into structural change to avoid worst-case scenario It is hard to differentiate

Deposit rate left at 2.00% Main refinancing rate left at 2.15% Marginal lending facility left at 2.40% Rate decision statement here The market was pricing 99% probability of no change, so there’s nothing surprising here. There is just 6 bps of easing priced in by year-end, so the ECB is expected to remain on hold

The headline here is from a Scotia report on Google’s earnings. “If Google’s stock can’t rally on this print, it’s tough to see any other names working in this tape.” GOOG stock is down 2.7% at the moment, albeit that’s a nice improvement from the 5% decline earlier. There is some improvement elsewhere but I’m

Bitcoin is at the worst levels in 15 months as it breaks below $67K for the first time since October 2024. It’s part of a swan dive since $90K on January 28. That’s a harsh fall in a very short period of time. Since October 6 when Bitcoin hit $126K, it’s down 48% in the

The precious metal has plunged by over 12% on the day and well off the highs from the bounce in the past two days of around $92. The drop now sees silver drop back to around $76 and the technicals highlight the move rather well. After the sharp pullback from last week, it was always

Prior +5.6%; revised to +5.7% That’s a huge beat on estimates as German manufacturing orders surged once again in December, after a big jump in November last year as well. A lot of that is to do with a massive increase in large orders though. If you strip that out of the report, new orders

That will at least keep things interesting on the economic calendar in the session ahead. The BOE decision will be up first at 1200 GMT with a 7-2 vote in favour of keeping the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% expected. That will be followed up by BOE governor Bailey’s press conference at 1230 GMT. The

Prior was 7.146 million (revised to 6.928m) Hires 5,293K vs 5,144K prior Separations 5,251K vs 5,144K prior Quits 3,248K vs 3,193K prior Layoffs and discharges 1,775K vs 1,701K prior This is a terrible reading along with a bad revision. Couple it with ISM employment, ADP, initial jobless claims and Challenger layoffs and it’s a consistently

Everyone loves the AI productivity narrative, but Goldman Sachs is asking the tough question: when does this become a labor market problem? According to a note from strategist Lee Coppersmith, the transition from a productivity story to a labor story is now underway. While the headline jobs numbers have held up so far, the underlying

Sydney, Australia, 5 February 2026 —Amid heightened volatility in global precious metals markets ,VT Markets has proven the strength of its trading infrastructure, maintaining stable execution and uninterrupted access during periods of intense market stress. During the recent market volatility, VT Markets recorded USD1.5 trillion in gold trading volume in January, underscoring strong client engagement

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold interest rates steady today with the policy rate to remain at 2.00%. The central bank is seen maintaining the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach in the statement. We won’t get macroeconomic projections at this meeting, so the focus will be on the press conference and Lagarde’s comments

I think the moves were just the new volatility in fearful, thin markets. But, if you want some news, this earlier: China’s gold consumption in 2025 fell 3.57% to 950.096 metric tons, the state-backed gold association said on Thursday. Gold output using domestic raw materials climbed 1.09% year on year to 381.339 metric tons, the

The meeting decision today is likely to be a non-event. And if so, the ECB will have done their job well. The central bank won’t be making any changes to key interest rates and the statement language should be left untouched as well. As such, that leaves just ECB president Lagarde’s press conference as the

Prior 40.1 That’s a modest uptick in UK construction activity, with this being the slowest reduction in seven months. All three sub-sectors recorded weaker rates of contraction than those seen in December, helped by a more stable demand environment and reports of a gradual turnaround in sales pipelines. House building (39.3) was the weakest-performing segment

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1800 level. The pair continues to weave in and out of the figure level, so the expiries will provide some interest to keep price action close by once again. That being said, the

Nvidia’s AI chip sales to China remain in limbo as Washington weighs national security safeguards against the risk of pushing buyers toward foreign rivals. Summary: Nvidia’s proposed AI chip sales to China face fresh licensing conditions ByteDance deal hinges on US national security safeguards Nvidia pushing back on commercially impractical KYC requirements Trump administration broadly

The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to hold the Bank Rate steady at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote split (Dhingra and Taylor to dissent in favour of a 25 bps cut). The guidance is expected to remain mostly unchanged and the focus will be mainly on individual members’ views and the agents’ pay

Prior was 209K Four week moving average 212K vs 206.2K prior Continuing claims 1844K vs 1847K expected This report wasn’t delayed by the US government shutdown but the JOLTS report was. It was initially scheduled for Tuesday but has been rescheduled for 10 am ET today. Non-farm payrolls was pushed back until next Wednesday, Feb

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will be speaking in Miami on her economic and policy outlook. Cook has tended to align with the Fed’s consensus, data-dependent approach rather than staking out an overtly hawkish or dovish position. On rate decisions, she has usually voted with the centre of the Committee. Cook has been firm

Prior 3.75% Bank rate vote 5-4 vs 7-2 expected Breeden, Dhingra, Ramsden, Taylor voted for a 25 bps rate cut “All is going well, there should be scope for some further reduction in the bank rate this year” But this does not mean that there is expectation to cut the bank rate at any particular

The main message today is one of good news Disinflation is on track and ahead of schedule compared to what we expected in November Not currently facing a situation in which monetary policy is being hit by big new shocks The risk from greater inflation persistence has become less pronounced Upside risk to inflation has

Oil prices swung sharply as Iran and the US played diplomatic phone tag, with reports of cancelled talks driving gains before confirmation of Friday talks in Oman sent crude back down. Posting this a catch up! Summary: Oil prices whipsawed on conflicting signals around Iran–US talks Crude jumped on reports Friday talks were off, then

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar continues to rebound after the strong selloff experienced in the last couple of weeks of January. The greenback remains supported by improving US data and strong PMIs potentially hinting to stronger economic activity going forward. If the data continues to come out strong, traders will have to pare back

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar continues to rebound against the major currencies after the strong selloff experienced in the last couple of weeks of January. The greenback remains supported by improving US data and strong PMIs potentially hinting to stronger economic activity going forward. If the data continues to come out strong, traders will

US-based employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January 2026, and that is up ~118% compared to the same month last year. Similar to how 2025 reflected a trend of softening labour market conditions and increasing layoffs, expect more of the same in 2026. That especially with the tech sector also likely to come under pressure

It’s rough out there for cryptocurrencies as the drop this week is made to look worse on the charts. Bitcoin already broke below its 100-week moving average last week, the first time that has happened since 2023. And adding insult to injury yesterday is when the selloff also took out key support from the March

The rollercoaster ride continues as the volatile selling is not quite over yet. Precious metals looked on course for a modest recovery in the past few sessions before being dealt a slight setback in US trading the day before. Gold failed to hold a firm break above $5,000 while silver dipped back under $90 to

The German construction PMI records 44.7 in January, significantly lower from the 50.3 print in December last year. The fall marks a solid drop in activity, which follows the first growth in almost four years in the month before. As such, that’s a major setback to the hopeful showing in December. A further decrease in

11.5x More Interest in ‘Why Is Bitcoin Crashing?’ Search interest around ‘why is Bitcoin crashing’ has surged by 11.5x in just a week, again as crypto market continues to slide and those that have tried to buy the dip, get stopped out again, or worse – liquadated. Why is bitcoin crashing then? While headlines often

Fed Governor Cook signalled a clear bias against near-term rate cuts, saying inflation risks remain skewed to the upside despite a stabilised labour market. Summary: Fed Governor Cook says inflation risks remain skewed to the upside Signals no support for near-term rate cuts without clearer disinflation Labour market seen as stable and broadly balanced Tariff-driven

Anthropic is out with a quartet of ads that they’re planning to air for the Superbowl and they’re devastating. The four themes are: deception, violation, trechery and betrayal but they all speak to the same thing: OpenAI launching ads. Or maybe not just OpenAI but other LLMs as well. There’s no doubt the world’s biggest

Fed Governor Cook Q&A now, signalled patience is warranted, saying policy is mildly restrictive and inflation progress remains insufficient to justify any near-term move. Earlier from Cook, from prepared remarks: Fed’s Cook warns inflation risks remain tilted higher Summary: Cook reinforces “wait and see” stance amid inflation uncertainty Says policy is mildly restrictive and appropriate

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.1% Retail sales +1.3% vs +1.6% y/y expected Prior +2.3%; revised to +2.4% That’s a slightly more disappointing end to the year for euro area retail sales activity. But overall in 2025, the annual average level of retail trade volume is seen increasing by 2.3% compared with 2024. As for the

Standard Chartered trimmed its 2026 Solana target but kept a bullish long-term view, arguing the network is shifting from memecoin speculation toward stablecoin-driven micropayments. The BTC plunge may mess with this forecasts: Bitcoin wipes out all the gains from the Trump election win, falls below $75,000 It’s the worst day of the year in the

Bloomberg says China’s “national team” is increasingly used to manage equity volatility as Beijing leans on stocks to support confidence, fund tech and offset property weakness. Bloomberg outlined how China’s “national team” is used to smooth equity swings Beijing wants a steadier “slow bull” to support confidence and fund tech The state can lean on

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlights will be the BoE and ECB rate decisions. The Bank of England is expected to hold the Bank Rate steady at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote split (although there’s also a strong consensus for a 7-2 split). The guidance in the statement will likely remain unchanged

Earlier: China targets unified domestic market to boost consumption and services demand The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9450 Injects 118.5bn yuan in 7day RRs @ 1.4% and also 300 bn yuan via 14day (Lunar New Year holidays begin February 15) This article

January US ISM services index 53.8 vs 53.5 expected January US ADP employment +22K vs +48K expected Plans for US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman on Friday are back on US reschedules non-farm payrolls for Wednesday Trump glows about his relationship with China and Xi EIA weekly crude oil inventories -3455K vs +489K expected Markets: Gold

The meeting decision today is widely expected to be an uneventful one. So if the ECB plays their cards right, that is precisely what is going to happen. And that can be viewed as a successful outcome in terms of managing market expectations and any reactions for today. The bottom line is that the central

Oil prices are falling after Iran’s foreign minister said talks will take place in Oman. That was followed by confirmation from Axios, which said that talks were put back on “after several Arab and Muslim leaders urgently lobbied the Trump administration on Wednesday afternoon not to follow through on threats to walk away,” A US

Sterling is firmer into Thursday’s BoE decision as stronger UK data nudges markets to delay rate-cut bets, with the vote split and guidance the key tells. Summary: Sterling firmed to a five-month high vs the euro as markets lean toward a BoE hold BoE is widely expected to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% Stronger

Crypto ICYMI – Standard Chartered cuts Solana 2026 target but keeps bullish long view Why Is Bitcoin Crashing? Technical Analysis Shows Sellers Still in Control Precious metals slammed, silver plummeted. Was it this news out of China? Silver takes a nosedive as dip buyers are dealt a setback India shares seen higher on trade deal

I’m not sure why the calendar is not updating, I’ve popped in the numbers: Trade data is not too much of a focus right now. Imports lower is not a positive sign for the economy. Exports up is! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.