A year ago, when Micron reported Q3 FY2025 results, it posted revenue of $9.30B and non-GAAP EPS of $1.91 per share. The stock was trading around ~$120-130/share at that time.
The price has since moved to a all-time high at $1213.56 reached on Monday’s trade. The current price is trading at $1043 down $8.50 on the day. Looking at the table below, earnings and revenues have been growing at an exponential pace.
Looking at the revenues, they went from $9.3 billion in June 2025 to $23.86 billion in the last quarterly report (up 156%). The estimate for this quarter is $35.85 billion, or a year on year gain of 285%.
Looking at earnings-per-share, the rise is even more impressive. EPS back in June 2025 was $1.91. Last quarter, the EPS came in at $12.20 up to 539% from June 2025. The estimate for the current quarter is for $20.83, rise of 991% from a year ago levels.
Wow!
Looking at the changes in the Revenues, EPS and the stock price, shows that at the estimates, revenues are up 285%, EPS are up $991%, but the stock price is up only 721%.
The gap between EPS (+991%) and stock (+721%) is the core valuation argument — earnings have outrun the stock price, meaning the P/E has actually compressed over the past year despite the massive rally. That has traders and analysts thinking that there is room to roam.
Bulls are nearly unanimous (38 of 43 analysts), clustered between $1,200 and $1,750 for the price target. Now the price did reach $1213. Below are some of the analysts who see the price greater than $1200.
All the bulls anchored the reasoning on the theme that memory has permanently shifted from cyclical commodity to AI infrastructure commodity with hyper growth expected. .
Bears — Goldman and HSBC — base their bearish case on one word: cycle. Admittedly, they’ve been wrong for a year, but the asymmetry is worth noting: if the bulls are right, upside is ~33% from here. If the bears are right, downside is ~60%.
Tonight’s guidance will be key. If the trajectory can continue at the torrid pace, there is room to roam even though the price is up 721% from a year ago.
If the numbers show some slowing, traders might worry more.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
