The Japanese yen has risen sharply across the board, especially against the US dollar, in a suspected intervention. Earlier in the session, we got a report citing sources saying that Japanese officials will stop signalling intervention risks and start focusing on targeting speculators.
This led to a rally in the Japanese yen as traders started to unwind their bearish positions. The momentum picked up in the last 10 minutes though and it’s not clear whether that was an intervention or just more specs running to the exit.
What’s clear is that the fundamentals are still pointing toward a lower JPY unless Japanese inflation starts surprising to the upside bringing forward rate hike expectations or the US data starts to surprise to the downside leading to a dovish repricing.
In the short-term, the threat of interventions without early warnings could keep the JPY supported, especially if the US data comes in line or worse than expected. Upside surprises in the US NFP, and especially in the US CPI, will likely take the USD/JPY pair to new highs even if there’s risk of intervention.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
