EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, the main highlights will be the French and German CPI reports. French CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.0% vs 2.4% prior, while the HICP Y/Y is seen at 2.3% vs 2.8% prior. The German CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs 2.6% prior, while the HICP Y/Y is seen at 2.5% vs 2.7% prior.
We got a Reuters report this morning citing sources saying that recent inflation developments have taken pressure off the ECB for a move in July, although there is still a case to be made if the June numbers are “nasty”.
The Eurozone CPI report comes out tomorrow but given that German and French CPI contribute the most to the Eurozone CPI, traders will start positioning into tomorrow’s release if the data today surprises to the upside as markets will increase the odds for a July hike. As of now, traders are pricing in 34% chance of a move in July.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we get the US Job Openings and Consumer Confidence data. Job Openings are expected at 7.295M vs 7.618M prior. Openings have normalised to pre-covid levels and more recently started to increase.
Some of the recent boost might have been caused by the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In any case, the US labour market has been improving considerably since 2025 and it’s not a source of concern for the Fed anymore as the focus shifted to inflation.
The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 94.4 vs 93.1. The expected improvement is due to the end of the US-Iran war and the easing in energy prices. This is unlikely to be a market-moving release.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
- 07:40 GMT/03:40 ET – ECB’s Vujcic (neutral – voter)
- 08:40 GMT/04:40 ET – ECB’s Elderson (neutral – voter)
- 09:40 GMT/05:40 ET – BoE’s Breeden (neutral – voter)
- 10:15 GMT/06:15 ET – ECB’s Lane (neutral – voter)
- 11:30 GMT/07:30 ET – ECB’s Lane (neutral – voter)
- 12:00 GMT/08:00 ET – ECB’s Cipollone (neutral – voter)
- 13:30 GMT/09:30 ET – ECB’s Lane (neutral – voter)
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
