The USD is little changed vs the major currencies to kickstart the North American trading day as the FX market remains paralyzed by the fluid situation in the Middle East . IN the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective and outline the bias, the risk levels, and the targets.
Below is changes of the major pairs to start the session.
- EURUSD:1.1427 ▲ +0.0013 (+0.11%)
- USDJPY:162.46 ▼ -0.12 (-0.07%)
- GBPUSD:1.3390 ▲ +0.0004 (+0.03%)
- USDCHF:0.8074 ▼ -0.0006 (-0.07%)
- USDCAD:1.4178 ▲ +0.0007 (+0.05%)
- AUDUSD:0.6933 ▲ +0.0005 (+0.07%)
- NZDUSD:0.5733 ▲ +0.0034 (+0.60%)
The one exception is the NZDUSD which has moved up 0.60% in trading today with followthru buying after the rate hike on Wednesday. The pair has moved above the high from last Friday at 0.5726. The next target comes in at the midpoint of the last move down at 0.5744 (see chart below).
IN the middle east, the US military launched another round of strikes against Iran late Wednesday night, with CENTCOM saying they’re intended to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial oil tankers earlier this week. The US says it hit around 90 targets overnight into Thursday, after roughly 80 the night before — mostly along Iran’s southern coast, though some strikes reached further inland, including parts of Tehran. Iran’s Health Ministry reports 14 killed and 78 wounded over the two days. Iran also says the US struck a railway bridge northeast of Tehran, a rare hit on civilian infrastructure, disrupting train travel to Mashhad where Khamenei’s funeral culminates today.
Meanwhile,Iran says it attacked US bases and strategic centers in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar after the second night of American strikes, and the Revolutionary Guards warned attacks would expand to other American bases in the region if the US keeps retaliating.
Oil prices are trading up marginally at $73.95 up $0.43 or 0.60%. In other commodities, gold is trading up $31 or 0.76% at $4111. Silver is trading up $0.85 or 1.47% at $59.09. The price of bitcoin is fairly steady at $62,742.
US stocks are trading higher with the futures implying
- Dow industrial average up 39 points points
- S&P up 12.29 points
- NASDAQ index up 264 points
In the US Debt market, yields continue to tick higher:
- 2 year yield 4.201%, +0.5 basis points.
- 5year yield 4.320%, + 0.9 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.583%, +1.6 basis points
- 30 year yield 5.089%, +2.5 basis points
In other news, the ECB minutes struck a hawkish tone, with policymakers expressing concern that inflation will remain above the 2% target well into next year and that core inflation is likely to stay above target throughout the forecast horizon. Officials unanimously saw upside risks to inflation, citing persistent energy-related price pressures, rising inflation expectations, and broader second-round effects. While the labor market remains resilient with unemployment near historic lows, members noted that AI adoption could eventually reduce labor demand. At the same time, the ECB acknowledged growing downside risks to economic growth, warning that weaker domestic demand, softer investment and consumption, and longer-term structural challenges could weigh on the euro area economy even as it becomes more resilient to energy shocks
ECB policymaker José Luis Escriva said the central bank is closely monitoring developments in the Middle East but will not react to every geopolitical event, instead focusing on whether higher oil prices create lasting inflation pressures through second-round effects. While those inflation effects have not yet emerged, he warned markets may be underestimating the impact of reduced oil supply. Escriva also said the Eurozone economy remains resilient, supported by stronger-than-expected demand, and reiterated that policy decisions will continue to be made meeting-by-meeting based on incoming data. Following the latest US-Iran escalation, markets briefly increased the probability of a July ECB rate hike to 40%, before easing back to 36% as tensions moderated, though elevated oil prices continue to support a more hawkish policy outlook.
- US initial jobless claims will be released at 8:30 AM ET with expectations of 218K versus 215K last week. Continuing claims are expected at 1.815 million versus 1.814 million last week.
- Existing home sales will be released at 10 AM ET with expectations of 4.20 million annualized pace versus 41 7 million last month
- The US treasury will auction off 30 year bonds at 1 PM
This article was written by fl932d6e52a19643278e0f123bca7198f5 at investinglive.com.
