The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on August 14 is very much ‘live’.
decision due at 2pm New Zealand time which is 0200 GMT which is 2200 US Eastern time on the 13th
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to keep its key cash rate at 5.50% at next Wednesday’s meeting. So says a majority, but not by many. As for market pricing, interest rate futures suggest an 85% chance of a rate cut next week and around 90 basis points of cuts by year-end
Some considerations for the RBNZ include:
inflation has dropped to 3.3%, the lowest in three years but still above the Bank’s target rangeconcerns over economic growth and rising unemployment
Comment from ANZ:
expects no immediate cutbelieves the Bank will signal a quicker easing of rates due to the worsening economic outlook”We expect a cut in November, with the risk skewed towards an earlier move”
Other banks views:
ASB and BNZ are predicting a cut next weekKiwibank, and Westpac expect it later in the year
Median forecasts indicate a rate drop to 5.00% by the end of the year
RBNZ could lower rates by an additional 125 basis points in 2025, bringing the official cash rate to 3.75% by the end of 2025
Yesterday we had some news for the RBNZ, and for those looking for rate cut next week:
New Zealand 2-year inflation expectations have dropped to 2.03% (prior2.3%)
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
