Fundamental
Overview
Tonight, the PBoC announced lots of easing measures ranging from short to long term interest rates. This
was the catalyst for the copper rally. Things are looking better and better for
the market as we’ve also got a 50 bps cut from the Fed last week.
Central bank easing
generally leads the manufacturing cycle, so we can expect global growth to pick
up. All these reasons should be bullish for the market and support prices in
the next months.
Moreover, as a reminder, the
positioning in crude oil is at record lows and the sentiment is very bearish. These
factors can generally offer great contrarian opportunities.
Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is struggling to break above the key 71.67 resistance. The buyers will need the price to
break above the resistance to start targeting the major trendline around the 76 handle. The sellers,
on the other hand, will likely step in again with a defined risk above the
resistance to position for a drop into the 65 handle.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we created a range between the 68.50 support and the 71.67 resistance.
The bias remains skewed to the upside but until we get a breakout, the market participants
will likely keep on playing the range.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see the choppy price action as the market continues to test the resistance.
There’s not much else to add here as traders will wait for a breakout on either
side to get things going. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have the US Consumer Confidence report. On Thursday, we get the
latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US
PCE.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
