Inflation to remain a bit bumpy due to energy. We expect wage growth remains highest year and rather bumpyData today is the first indication that we have reached a turning point.Relatively strong consumption data in Germany and France give some hope for a turnaroundGeopolitical risks have increased significantly.Major worry is protectionism, in light of US election.Expect more frequent supply-side shocks, which will have impact on inflation.
Looking at the economic data released earlier today:
German Prelim CPI m/m
Actual: 0.4% (BEAT Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.0%)
French Consumer Spending m/m
Actual: 0.1% (MET Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.4%)
French Flash GDP q/q
Actual: 0.4% (BEAT Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.2%)
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
Actual: 1.8% (BEAT Forecast: 1.7%, Previous: 1.5%)
Spanish Flash GDP q/q
Actual: 0.8% (BEAT Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 0.8%)
German Unemployment Change
Actual: 27K (MISSED Forecast: 15K, Previous: 19K)
Italian Prelim GDP q/q
Actual: 0.0% (MISSED Forecast: 0.2%,Previous: 0.2%)
German Prelim GDP q/q
Actual: 0.2% (BEAT Forecast: -0.1%, Previous: -0.3%)
EU Prelim Flash GDP q/q
Actual: 0.4% (BEAT Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.2%)
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
