Rate cuts by year-end
Fed: 42 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 119 bps
ECB: 23 bps (91% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 121 bps
BoE: 30 bps (80% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 94 bps
BoC: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 114 bps
RBA: 5 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 52 bps
RBNZ: 54 bps (84% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/16% for a 75 bps cut)
2025: 152 bps
SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 70 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
BoJ: 8 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 36 bps
*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
