Deutsche Bank flags rising risks to December Fed rate cut, signals extended policy pauseECB vice president Luis de Guindos is speaking on FridayChina official PMI data due this weekend – manufacturing and services expansion expectedTokyo inflation acceleration – recapping the yen supportive data published earlierThe potential for a December Federal Reserve rate cut cited for gold price bouncePBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1877 (vs. estimate at 7.2244)Japan will provide up to 100bn yen support for semiconductors and moreUSD losses continue – USD/JPY under 150.70Australian October 2024 Private Sector Credit +0.6% m/m (expected +0.5%)Reforms afoot at the Reserve Bank of Australia could complicate rate cut outlookJapan October Industrial Output +3.0% m/m (exp +3.9%) Retail sales +1.6% y/y (exp +2.2%)USD/JPY towards 151.10 – the drop began before the CPI data officially publishedTokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%)More on this revised RBNZ forecast from ANZ now expect the RBNZ to cut by 50bp in FebruaryANZ now expect the RBNZ to cut by 50bp in February (revised from 25pb cut)ANZ revise RBA forecast – now expect first cut in May (from February )Q1 2025 outlook: inflation pressures will rise, Fed likely to stop cutting rates earlierICYMI – RBA Gov Bullock ruled out a rate cutHappy Thanksgiving to all our American readersNew Zealand November consumer confidence jumps to 99.8 (prior 91.2)Trade ideas thread – Friday, 29 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
USD/JPY
traded to under 150.00 following November inflation data from Tokyo.
The data is in the post above, but the highlights:
consumer
prices excluding fresh food (referred to to as the core rate) for the
Tokyo metropolitan area accelerated for the first time in 3 months
energy
prices increased due to the effects of government energy subsidies
expiring (however there is a new support measure being rolled in from
January)service
prices, closely watched by the Bank of Japan, rose 0.9%, a little
faster than October’s 0.8% increase
The
higher readings encouraged the view that the Bank of Japan will hike
at its December 18-19 meeting and the yen rocketed higher against the
USD and crosses. USD/JPY fell, briefly, to lows under 150.00. Its
back just above there as I update.
Other
data from Japan were not quite so positive (but other data is taking a back
seat to inflation data):
industrial output and retail sales were both
disappointing.
Apart
from yen, other major FX traded in small ranges only, with a generally
slightly weaker USD.
Note
that over the weekend China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
will publish November official PMIs (preview in points above).
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
