China’s bond market is screaming the “D” word. “D” as in depression.US dollar reaction on Fed hints at slowing the pace of interest-rate cuts may be mutedAustralia regulator pursuing Binance Australia Derivatives re consumer protection failuresBOJ is expected to hold its policy rate at 0.25% in its December 18-19 meeting – previewICYMI – Switzerland has slashed economic growth forecastsBank of America’s latest global fund manager survey – super bullish sentimentSouth Korea Finance Minister Choi – will manage the economy as stably as possibleUBS sees gold extending gains into 2025, forecasts $2,900/oz price targetPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1880 (vs. estimate at 7.2838)UK pay growth steady at 4% but expected to slow in 2025National Australia Bank predicts an RBA interest rate cut in May 2025 (February questions)Japan November exports +3.8% y/y (expected +2.8%) imports -3.8% y/y (expected +1.0%)Australia Leading Index: Three quarters of components now giving positive growth signalsAustralian government forecasts ballooning debtNissan and Honda are said to be in talks to set up a holding company‘Spy drones’ from China likely wreaking havoc over US, House foreign affairs chair claimsICYMI – China promised massive stimulus yesterday (will it work this time?)BoA bullish US stocks despite “boiling geopolitical instability”, waning US fiscal healthFed insider says FOMC cut today, but then “a much more cautious tone about further cuts”Oil – private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw much greater than expectedNew Zealand data: Q3 Current Account 10.6bn NZD (expected -10.5bn)Is Milei rewriting economic theory?US stocks close lower. Dow down for the 9th consecutive dayForexlive Americas FX news wrap: US retail sales boosted by autosTrade ideas thread – Wednesday, 18 December, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
AUD,
NZD and CAD were further losers here during the session, remaining
under pressure from weak China demand and a strong US dollar. AUD/USD
hit its lowest since October 2023 while the kiwi $ traded down to its
lowest since October 2022. The only fresh news of note was from
Australia, where the government has forecast widening deficits ahead,
and surging debt.
USD/JPY
ticked back up, to highs just short of 153.80. The Bank of Japan
Statement is due on Thursday (expected in the 0230 – 0330 GMT time
window, which is 2130 – 2230 US Eastern time). The Bank is expected
to leave rates unchanged. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is expected to
convey hawkish signals in his following press conference (0630 GMT /
0130 US Eastern time).
Ahead
of the BoJ tomorrow is, of course, the Federal Reserve later on
Wednesday. The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is
expected to cut Fed Funds by 25bp and to indicate a slower pace of
rate cuts ahead. There is more in the previews in the points above.
***
Elsewhere:
Nissan’s stock surged the most in at least fifty years on talk of a merger with Honda Bitcoin pulled back further
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
