We have a very busy day ahead on the data front. In the European session, there won’t be that much as we just get the Eurozone Q1 GDP (2nd estimate) and the Eurozone Employment Change data. Both of them are old news and rarely market moving releases.
In the American session, we have lots of data but the main highlights include the US PPI, US Jobless Claims and US Retail Sales. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 3.1% vs. 3.3% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.3% vs. -0.1% prior. I think the focus switched back to inflation so watch out for surprises.
The US Initial Claims are expected at 229K vs. 228K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1890K vs. 1879K prior. The US Jobless
Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.
They haven’t been market moving for several months because the data never surprised. Initial Claims remain below the cycle high at 260K. We will likely need a spike above that level to trigger a market reaction. Some analysts are suggesting we could see higher readings due to some seasonal patterns in the next weeks but as long as we stay below that 260K level, it should be fine.
The US Retail Sales M/M is expected at 0.0% vs. 1.5% prior, while the ex-Autos measure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.6% prior. The Control Group is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.4% prior. I don’t really care about retail sales data myself because it’s a volatile data set. Goldman Sachs expects core retail sales to rise in April as consumers frontloaded purchases ahead of impending tariffs.
Central bank speakers:
- 06:00 GMT – ECB’s Cipollone (dove – voter)
- 06:50 GMT – ECB’s Elderson (neutral – voter)
- 12:40 GMT/08:40 ET – Fed Chair Powell (neutral – voter)
- 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET – BoE’s Dhingra (uber dove – voter)
- 18:05 GMT/14:05 ET – Fed’s Barr (dove – voter)
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
