- Prior was +1.5%
Details:
- Ex-autos +0.1% vs +0.3% expected
- Prior ex autos +0.6%
- Ex autos and gas +0.2% vs +0.9% prior
- Control group -0.2% vs +0.3% expected
- Prior control +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)
- Retail sales y/y vs +4.91% prior
The control group is the key metric in this report and it was a disappointment. I wouldn’t read too much into it though as it came after a strong month.
Some notable parts of the report
- Food services and drinking places +0.8% (there is high consumer sensitivity here)
- Clothing +0.9% (tariff front running?)
- Building materials and garden +0.9% (good sign on housing)
- Furniture and home furnishings +1.4% (again, good for housing)
- Motor vehicles +0.9% (tariff frontrunning?)
- Grocery stores +0.1%
The only real weakness here is in grocery stores so overall I’d say this report is a strong endorsement of the health of the consumer even after the tariff war kicked off. Some of that could be tariff front-running so we’ll see if it holds up but it’s a good start.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
