The USD is hgher to start the trading day – and week for North American traders – after the Memorial Day holiday on Monday. The move to the upside is being helped by the flow of funds back into the US after the weekend news that Pres. Trump would not start the “recommended” tariffs on EU imports (50%) on June 1, but will start them on July 9th instead. So there is a “reprieve of execution” for which gives traders a reason to buy treasuries and stocks today. The Dow is up over 570 points. the Nasdaq is up over 330 points to start the new day. However, who knows what lurks behind the next door.
IN the video, I shift the focus from the fundamental to the technicals. The technicals take a view from the perspective of the price action caused by the random news, and as such helps to define bias defining levels, risk defining levels, and target on where the price action may be going. As such, they create a roadmap for trader in a sea of fundamental uncertainty.
The central bankers of the world are also uncertain. Today:
BOJ Governor Ueda highlighted that although inflation is nearing Japan’s 2% target, uncertainty remains elevated due to global trade policy shifts and persistent supply-side shocks—particularly in food prices. He emphasized downside risks to economic activity, especially into 2025–2026, and noted the need to remain flexible with monetary policy. Underlying inflation is close to 2%, but with high volatility in food prices, caution is needed. Ueda also warned that headline vs. core inflation divergence, driven by supply shocks, may challenge central banks globally.
Fed’s Kashkari noted there’s ongoing debate within the FOMC about whether to overlook the inflationary effects of new tariffs. He personally finds the case against looking through such inflation more persuasive, supporting the idea of holding interest rates steady until the tariff outlook becomes clearer.
ECB’s Holzmann, known as the most hawkish policymaker, called for a pause in rate cuts until at least September due to ongoing trade tensions. He argued that further rate cuts now would have little impact on Eurozone economic activity. He sees the neutral rate between 2.5% and 3.0% and noted that several ECB officials share his skepticism toward additional cuts.
US durable goods for April will be released at 8:30 AM with the expectations -7.8% versus 7.5% last month. Later at 9 AM, the Case Shiller Home data for March will be released with expectations of 0.3%. The US consumer confidence for May will be released at 10 AM with expectations of 87.0 versus 86.0 last month.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
