The latest GDP growth for Q2 rises to 4.6% from 3.8%. In your own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 4.6 percent on June 2, up from 3.8 percent on May 30. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.3 percent and -1.4 percent, respectively, to 4.0 percent and 0.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 5. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
Needless to say the GDP estimate has shown a big increase over the last week or so.
Remember, however, that last quarter growth fell -0.2% with the trade a large negative. Below are the contributors to the -0.2% negative growth in the 1Q:
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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): +0.8 percentage points
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Gross Private Domestic Investment (GPDI): +4.0 percentage points
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Net Exports (Exports minus Imports): −4.9 percentage points
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Government Consumption Expenditures (GCE): −0.1 percentage points
The -4.9% net exports was influenced by gold and trade data from front loading imports ballooning the trade deficit. Last week, the trade deficit was nearly halved from the previous month. As a result, net exports will be a big contributor. Consumption was also weaker last quarter.
GDP is a quarter on quarter measurement that gets annualized. So if you get 1% gain from the prior quarter, that implies near 4% GDP annualized number. There can be volatility as a result – especially if you have things like tariffs forcing businesses to load up on imports.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
