Headlines:
- Traders pare back their dovish bets on the Fed after the positive NFP report
- Trump says countries have to start paying tariffs on 1 August
- More on Trump saying he’ll begin sending tariff letters on Friday
- China issues final ruling on EU brandy probe, to impose duties up to 34.9%
- OPEC+ meeting has been moved to Saturday 5th of July due to Ashura holiday
- ECB’s Lagarde: We will do whatever we must do to reach inflation target
- ECB’s Villeroy: Euro appreciation has a clear disinflationary effect
- Eurozone May PPI -0.6% vs -0.5% m/m expected
- Italy May retail sales -0.4% vs -0.7% prior
- Germany May industrial orders -1.4% vs -0.1% m/m expected
- Germany June construction PMI 44.8 vs 44.4 prior
- UK June construction PMI 48.8 vs 48.4 expected
Markets:
- JPY leads, AUD lags on the day
- European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.6%
- Gold up 0.3% to $3,336.22
- WTI crude down 0.9% to $66.42
- Bitcoin down 0.8% to $109,100
As we gear towards the long weekend in the US, markets in general are also taking a bit of a breather for the most part. It was quiet in European trading today with little in terms of anything to work with.
Trump was up late yesterday, announcing that he will be sending letters to about 10 to 12 countries today on higher tariffs to start with. That will continue on through to next week. Those tariffs are to go into effect from 1 August though, so there is still time between now and then for things to change.
But as the trade focus returns, risk sentiment is seen slipping back with Wall Street also set to be out of action until next week. European indices are down across the board with French stocks leading declines after China confirmed higher duties on French cognac makers, even if some of the bigger names might be spared.
In FX, the dollar is giving back much of its gains following the stronger US non-farm payrolls data from yesterday. EUR/USD is back up around 1.1775 while USD/JPY is down 0.4% to 144.30 levels on the day. USD/CHF is also seen down 0.2% to 0.7930 currently.
Against the commodity currencies, the dollar isn’t doing all too much with the changes there being relatively light amid narrower ranges. USD/CAD is up 0.1% to 1.3590 while AUD/USD is down 0.1% to 0.6560 on the day.
All in all, it points to the dollar’s strength yesterday as not really changing the bigger picture by much. As we look to next week, the focus will turn back to trade headlines and we’ll have to see how the dollar hangs in there again after having been pressured consistently in the months before when markets have kept their attention on the US administration’s policy incoherence and unpredictability.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
