Goldman Sachs says OPEC+ decision to start gradually unwinding the 1.65 mb/d of cuts likely primarily reflects that OECD commercial stocks remain low
- says it keeps its Brent/WTI price forecast unchanged for 2025, close to the forwards, and for the 2026 average at $56/$52
- “Risks to our 2025–2026 price forecast are two-sided but skewed modestly to the upside”
- says expect slightly larger surplus in 2026 as upgrades to supply in Americas outweigh downgrade to Russia supply and upgrade to global demand
- revises up its 2026 oil surplus forecast to 1.9 mb/d (vs. 1.7MB/d prior)
- Full 1.65 mb/d unwind is plausible, we assume group will leverage its flexibility to pause quota increases from Jan 2026 under our assumption that OECD commercial stocks start rising noticeably in 2025q4
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
