- Prior month 7.227M
- JOLTs job openings 7.670M vs 7.150M estimate
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October hires were little changed, holding at 5.1 million.
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The hire rate remained steady at 3.2%.
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No significant hiring shifts occurred across any major industries
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In October, total separations were little changed at 5.1 million and a 3.2% rate.
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Total separations fell in health care & social assistance (-111,000) and the federal government (-34,000).
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Quits in October were little changed at 2.9 million with a 1.8% rate.
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Quits were down 276,000 over the year.
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Quits decreased in:
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Accommodation & food services (-136,000)
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Health care & social assistance (-114,000)
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Federal government (-25,000)
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Federal government quits hit a series high of 46,000 in September.
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Quits increased in:
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Arts, entertainment & recreation (+38,000)
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Information (+21,000)
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Job openings moving higher is generally a positive sign for the labor market, suggesting that employers still want to hire.
However, the quits rate falling to its lowest level since 2020 tells a different story. Quits typically rise when workers feel confident they can easily find another job; their decline signals anxiety and caution beneath the surface. This contrast highlights a job market that looks healthy on the demand side but shows waning worker confidence.
The jobs picture to me is muddy. Initial jobless claims dropped below 200K last week, a level usually associated with strong labor conditions, though the Thanksgiving holiday makes the seasonal adjustment less reliable. Today’s ADP report also moved back into positive territory, reversing recent weakness from a negative monthly reading. Together, the data point to an uptick in employment.
What will the Fed say tomorrow?
The data point to hawkish cut.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
