There are reports of a massive US military build up in the Middle East and now this:
The WSJ reports that the White House is considering rolling out the Venezuela playbook on Iran. US officials have discussed whether to seize additional tankers involved in transporting Iranian oil to pressure Tehran but have held off so far, according to unnamed US officials.
Part of the reason for holding off is fear of a jump in oil prices. The US has already seized several tankers serving Venezuela and doing it to Iran would be an act of war.
Iran could respond itself by seizing tankers carrying oil from U.S. allies in the region or even by mining the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices have risen about 30 cents on the report, climbing to $64.50 in the US.
It’s hard to imagine we can get away from some sort of US-Iran conflict as the US takes an increasingly-hostile posture. Trump may feel his success in Venezuela offers somewhat of a blueprint or at least a longer leash. At the same time, a core tenet of MAGA was avoiding foreign wars so he may be fearful of an escalation that would necessitate a prolonged engagement or troops on the ground.
I would estimate there is a $3-5 premium already embedded in oil based on the escalation and I suspect that’s vulnerable in almost any situation. Like this report highlights, Trump isn’t inclined to do anything to boost oil prices so he will likely limit the conflict to that end, likely relying on air attacks on military, suspected nuclear sites or traditional infrastructure.
For now, both sides appear to be talking but the US has taken a maximalist position that Iran must limit its number of traditional missiles. That’s almost impossible for Iran to agree to.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
