Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are posting solid gains today, with the S&P up 0.85% and the NASDAQ higher by 1.25%. After recent consolidation and downside probes, buyers are stepping back in — but key technical levels will determine whether this bounce turns into something more durable.
NASDAQ: Key Levels Define Control
The NASDAQ’s low yesterday stalled near the upper boundary of a prior swing area between 21,898 and 22,256. That zone had previously acted as support, and once again buyers leaned against it. Just beneath that range sits the rising 200-day moving average at 21,830.37, adding another layer of technical support.
Downside Risk
For sellers to regain meaningful control, they would need to:
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Break back below the 21,898–22,256 swing area
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And more importantly, get below the 200-day MA at 21,830
A sustained move under those levels would shift the bias more clearly to the downside and open the door for a deeper correction.
Upside Resistance
On the topside, the next hurdle is the flattening 100-day moving average at 23,166.70. That level is critical. The index previously moved above that MA but failed, which helped set up the downside move into Friday and early this week.
If buyers are to take firmer control, they need to:
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Break and stay above 23,166
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Show sustained momentum beyond that moving average
Until that happens, rallies may still face technical headwinds.
S&P 500: Structure Remains More Bullish
The S&P technical picture is notably stronger. Yesterday’s low dipped briefly below the rising 100-day moving average at 6,817.13, but sellers could not sustain momentum. Price found support within a defined swing area between 6,764.66 and 6,789.05.
Downside Risk
For sellers to shift the tone:
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Price would need to get and stay below the 100-day MA (6,817)
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And break through the 6,764.66 swing low
Absent that, buyers retain control of the broader structure.
Upside Target
The next major target sits at the all-time high of 7,002.28. After reaching that peak on January 28, subsequent rallies have stalled just shy of the level (near 6,993).
A clean break and sustained move above 7,002 would mark a significant technical development and confirm a renewed bullish leg higher.
Summary Bias
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NASDAQ: Neutral-to-bullish while holding above the 21,898–22,256 swing area and especially the 200-day MA (21,830). More bullish above the 100-day MA at 23,166.
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S&P 500: Structurally more bullish. Bias remains positive while price stays above 6,817 and the 6,764 support zone. A break above 7,002 would confirm renewed upside momentum.
In short, the S&P remains technically stronger, while the NASDAQ still needs to reclaim its 100-day moving average to fully shift control back to the buyers.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
