Monetary policy / interest rates
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We are probably about 1% away from neutral.
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Around 1% of rate cuts are appropriate this year.
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It is appropriate to cut rates at the March meeting.
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Would prefer continuing quarter-point cuts until the Fed reaches neutral, then reassess policy.
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The Fed should accommodate the AI-driven jobs transition with easier monetary policy.
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Does not believe current credit issues warrant a change in monetary policy.
Inflation outlook
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Evidence that the Iran conflict will feed into core inflation is quite limited.
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Markets do not appear concerned about long-term inflation expectations.
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If housing inflation decelerates as expected, the Fed could undershoot the 2% inflation target.
Geopolitical impact (Iran conflict)
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Too early to have firm views about the economic impact of the Iran conflict.
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The situation differs from the 2022 Ukraine invasion because monetary and fiscal policy were more expansionary at that time.
Labor market / employment
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There is a two-year labor market trend that should not be rejected based on one or two months of data.
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Layoffs at Block may indicate what could be coming, but it is only one company.
Other
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Has not spoken with Trump since resigning as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.
Stephen Miran is a Federal Reserve Governor and a close economic ally of President Trump, known for his staunchly dovish bias. Having previously served as Trump’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Miran has consistently advocated for aggressive interest rate cuts to align with the administration’s pro-growth agenda. His relationship with Trump is deeply integrated; he was appointed to fill a vacancy in late 2025 and briefly drew scrutiny for holding his White House post simultaneously with his Fed seat. Although his formal term expired in early 2026, he remains a key figure on the Board in a “holdover” capacity, serving as a primary voice for the President’s economic vision within the central bank.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
