- Prior month 7.1
Details from the NY Fed
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New orders: 6.4 versus 5.8 last month , little changed, indicating a modest increase in demand.
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Shipments: -6.9 versus -1.0 last month, down 6 points, showing declining shipments.
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Unfilled orders: 10.8 versus 9.1 last month, up 2 points, suggesting backlogs increased.
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Delivery times: 13.7 versus 4.0 last month, up 10 points, indicating longer delivery times.
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Inventories: 6.9 versus 7.1 last month. Increased, pointing to higher stock levels at manufacturers.
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Supply availability: -3.9, slightly worse than the prior month.
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Employment: 5.8 versus a 4.0 last month, up 2 points, signaling modest job growth.
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Average workweek: 1.9 versus 2.1 last month, little changed, indicating slightly longer hours.
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Prices paid (input costs): 36.6 versus 49.1 last month, down 13 points, showing slower cost inflation but still elevated.
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Prices received: 21.4 versus 22.2 last month, little changed, meaning selling price increases remain steady.
Component changes (March vs February)
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Up: 4 components — New orders, Unfilled orders, Delivery times, Employment
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Down: 5 components — Shipments, Inventories, Supply availability, Average workweek, Prices paid
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Little changed: 1 component — Prices received
Overview
The March Empire State Manufacturing components paint a mixed picture for New York manufacturing, but lower than expectations. Demand indicators showed modest improvement, with new orders rising slightly and unfilled orders increasing, suggesting some buildup in backlogs. However, shipments declined notably, indicating that actual production or deliveries softened during the month. On the supply side, delivery times lengthened and supply availability deteriorated slightly, hinting at lingering supply-chain frictions.
Labor market indicators were marginally positive, with employment increasing modestly while the average workweek was little changed. Meanwhile, inflation pressures eased somewhat, as the prices paid index fell sharply, though input costs remain elevated overall. Selling price increases were largely steady.
Overall, the components suggest stable but uneven manufacturing conditions, with demand holding up modestly, production softer, labor stable, and cost pressures easing somewhat, but the data was lower MoM and worse than the expectations. .
6-month forward details from the survey.
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Future business outlook: 31.0 versus 34.7 last month, firms remain optimistic about future conditions.
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Capital spending: 21.6 versus 18.2 last month, up 3 points to a multi-year high, indicating stronger investment plans.
Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed said:
“Manufacturing activity held steady in New York
State in March. Delivery times lengthened and supply
availability worsened slightly. Firms remained
optimistic about the outlook.”
The New York Fed Manufacturing Index (officially known as the Empire State Manufacturing Survey) is a monthly economic indicator that gauges the health of the manufacturing sector in New York State.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
