This is from Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence at hearings today:
“The IC assesses the regime in Iran appears to be intact, but largely degraded due to attacks on its leadership and military capabilities. Its conventional military power projection capabilities have largely been destroyed, leaving limited options… Even if the regime remains intact, the IC assesses that internal tensions are likely to increase as economic as Iran’s economy worsens. Even so, Iran and its proxies continue to attack U.S. and allied interests in the Middle East. The IC assesses that if a hostile regime survives, it will likely seek to begin a years long effort to rebuild its military missiles and UAV forces.”
Separately, Axios is out with a report:
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Axios citing a White House official: Israel will try to assassinate the new Iran leader and they are much more interested in that than we are.
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Axios on a White House official: Israel has other targets and we know that.
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Axios citing U.S. officials: Trump’s main targets are to destroy Iran’s missile and nuclear program, its navy, and the funding of its proxies.
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Axios citing US officials: Trump will view regime change as an additional gain but intends to end the war once his main objectives are achieved.
Trump and administration officials are continuing to fall back on the ‘destruction of military capability’ goals and I tend to think they will stick to that. What’s less clear is what happens when Trump declares ‘mission accomplished’. Does Iran stop strikes on Hormuz? Is there some sort of peace process? Does Israel continue to kill Iran’s leaders? Does Russia continue to help Iran?
I find this whole setup a difficult one to create a path for lasting peace. Today’s strikes on energy infrastructure are a bizarre escalation that takes us far from peace and risks a long-term rebuild of energy infrastructure throughout the region.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
