- UAE warns Hormuz disruption is “economic terrorism” as tensions rise and rise
- WSJ: China sees opportunity as Trump’s Taiwan stance raises uncertainty
- China EV exports jump 120% in February as global demand accelerates
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9056 (vs. estimate at 6.9108)
- WSJ report that Trump targets swift end to Iran war while ramping up military pressure
- China’s COSCO resumes Gulf shipping, signalling uneven reopening of Hormuz routes
- Oil rises as US escalation risk builds despite Trump ceasefire rhetoric
- Trump speaking, says Iran is negotiating and want a deal
- Big gold news ICYMI – Russia’s Putin signs order to limit gold exports
- Trump-Xi meeting now set for May after delay tied to Iran conflict
- RBA warns Middle East conflict may lift inflation and hit growth outlook
- NAB: Softer CPI unlikely to deter RBA, May hike to 4.35% still expected
- Barclays: ECB set to hike as energy shock hits Europe, Fed likely to stay on hold
- US says two-thirds of Iran’s arms facilities destroyed in ongoing strikes
- Venezuela oil output rises to 1.1 mln bpd as sector recovery gains traction
- Trump may announce Iran ceasefire even WITHOUT a deal, Israeli media reports
- Morgan Stanley warns dollar rally may be bull trap amid growth risks
- investingLive Americas FX news wrap 25 Mar: Markets are hoping for peace, but not sure.
In summary:
- Oil edges higher as geopolitical risk steadily builds
- Conflicting US-Iran messaging keeps uncertainty elevated
- Iran denies talks, US insists negotiations underway
- US claims major degradation of Iran’s military capability
- Israeli airstrikes continue, Iran hits regional targets
- Trump pushes for quick end but sets hard deadline
- Ground operation risk rising (Kharg Island / Hormuz focus)
- Gold and FX largely steady amid cautious positioning
Oil prices continued to edge higher, with markets gradually rebuilding a geopolitical risk premium as tensions in the US-Iran conflict show signs of further escalation rather than resolution.
Messaging around potential negotiations remained highly inconsistent. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi again denied that talks with the US are taking place, while acknowledging that messages are being exchanged via intermediaries, stressing this “does not mean negotiation.” In contrast, the White House maintained that Tehran is seeking an exit ramp, while President Trump said Iran is negotiating and wants a deal but is reluctant to say so publicly. Trump also added that “no one in Iran wants to be Supreme Leader right now,” underscoring pressure on the regime.
At the same time, the military backdrop continues to intensify. The US says it has significantly degraded Iran’s capabilities, with CENTCOM noting over 10,000 targets struck and roughly two-thirds of Iran’s arms production infrastructure destroyed. Israeli forces also carried out a fresh wave of “extensive” airstrikes targeting regime infrastructure, while Iran continued attacks across the Gulf region.
Despite Trump signalling a desire to avoid a prolonged conflict, with reports suggesting he wants the war concluded within weeks, the near-term trajectory appears to be moving in the opposite direction. His five-day deadline expires Friday night, and indications are building that preparations for a potential ground operation are advancing.
Markets are increasingly focused on the risk of a targeted move on key strategic assets such as Kharg Island or efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz, both of which would mark a significant escalation with direct implications for global energy supply.
Against this backdrop, gold and major FX pairs traded largely steady, reflecting cautious positioning as investors await clearer direction.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
