Canada is closed today for the Easter Monday holiday, but U.S. markets remain open and active. Equity futures are pointing to a mixed start, with the Dow modestly lower, the S&P 500 slightly higher, and the NASDAQ leading the way with gains of around 100 points. Meanwhile, U.S. yields have rotated lower after an early uptick, with the 10-year now down roughly 1.5 basis points after being higher by a similar amount at the start of the North American session. That shift in yields is helping to shape the tone across FX markets.
In the USDCAD, the price is trading at new session lows after failing to build on last week’s highs during the Asian-Pacific session. That failure to extend higher opened the door for sellers, and the momentum has since tilted more decisively to the downside. In the early European session, the pair broke below a key swing area between 1.3924 and 1.3937—a level that had acted as a floor going back to September 2025 on the 4-hour chart. The inability to hold above that zone has shifted the short-term bias more firmly in favor of sellers.
The downside momentum has continued with a break below the 100-hour moving average (near 1.3917). This level held as support late last week after the pair briefly dipped below it on Wednesday before rebounding into Thursday and Friday. Moving back below it today is a negative technical development and signals that sellers are regaining control—at least in the near term.
However, there is still work to do for sellers if they want to extend the move. The next key target comes in at the 200-hour moving average near 1.3891. This level has proven to be a key barometer in recent weeks. Back on March 23, the price briefly moved below it but failed to generate follow-through, quickly snapping back higher. Earlier in March, the pair used that same moving average as a base before launching its broader upside trend. As a result, a clean break and sustained move below the 200-hour MA would be needed to give sellers greater confidence and signal a more meaningful shift in control.
If that level gives way, attention turns to the next downside targets, including last week’s low near 1.3868 and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 23 low at 1.3516. These represent key downside checkpoints that would need to be broken to reinforce a more bearish bias.
For now, the bias has tilted modestly to the downside, but the roadmap remains clear: sellers are gaining traction, yet they still need to break and stay below key support levels to fully take control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
