There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.
The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 and 1.1700 levels. The dollar has opened with a gap higher today after US-Iran talks collapsed over the weekend. So, that is still going to be the key driver of trading sentiment in the day ahead. That especially if oil prices continue to jump higher while risk trades falter as the optimism from last week continues to fade.
The market reaction so far can be characterised as “it could have been worse”. However, it is still early days and we might yet see things get uglier through the week. That especially with oil price futures moving closer to the May contract expiry next week, with there still being a notable gap to the physical market.
But circling back to the expiries, the ones at 1.1650 could help to limit some downside price extension in European morning trade. That alongside the 100-hour moving average at 1.1661 currently. Meanwhile, the expiries at the 1.1700 level should help to place a ceiling on price action so long as markets continue to react negatively to US-Iran developments.
As mentioned above though, dollar sentiment and the broader market mood will be bigger factors influencing price action this week. So, I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on the impact on the expiries.
In any case, there’s also one for USD/CAD at the 1.3900 level today. It doesn’t tie much to any technical significance, with the pair now looking to bounce back after the losses from last week. The 200-hour moving average at 1.3885 will be one to watch, with a push above that allowing for buyers to seize back near-term control.
That will be a testing point with the dollar trying to recover back from the drop last week. And in the absence of more positive geopolitical news, the path of least resistance this week will be to lean towards that direction.
For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
