Crude oil futures are racing higher, up roughly $5 or 5% on the day, and pushing into a key decision zone. The move to the upside has been supported by reports that the Trump administration is speaking to oil companies about a extended blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that could last for months.
The rally has brought price right up toward a swing/remembered area between $105.53 and $106.86. So far, the high has reached $105.25—just shy of that lower boundary. That keeps the market knocking on the door of a critical ceiling.
A break above that zone would open the door to the extreme highs from earlier this year—$117.63 in April and $119.48 in March.
This is where the battle is.
Sellers can lean against this swing area with stops just above—risk defined, risk limited—looking for a rotation back lower. On the downside, the first target comes in at the April 28 high of $101.85, followed by the natural psychological level at $100.00. Below that, the rising 100-hour moving average at $97.39 becomes the next key support target if downside momentum builds.
From the buyer’s perspective, the trend remains firmly in their control. The move higher accelerated after price broke back above the 100-hour moving average on April 22 near $88.74. Since then, corrections have been shallow and the price has remained comfortably above the rising 100-hour MA—a classic sign of sustained upside momentum.
Bias / Risk / Targets:
- Bias: Bullish. ALthough approaching resistance, momentum favors buyers
- Risk: Rejection at $105.53–$106.86 opens a rotation lower
- Upside targets: Break above $106.86 → $117.63 → $119.48
- Downside targets: $101.85 → $100.00 → $97.39 (100-hour MA)
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
