The USD is higher but little changed vs most of the major currencies. It is trading above and below unchanged vs the GBP, and up vs the EUR and the JPY by about 0.13% to start the North American session.
Over the weekend, the U.S. carried out “self-defense” strikes on Iranian radar and drone command-and-control sites, saying the action was a response to Iran shooting down an American MQ-1 drone. Iran retaliated with its own strikes, and large protests broke out in Tehran as demonstrators gathered at Revolution Square to condemn the U.S. and Israeli attacks. Kuwait also intercepted hostile missiles and drones as the violence rippled across the region.
On the diplomatic side, peace negotiations remained stalled as President Trump sent back the draft ceasefire deal demanding tougher terms — specifically stronger language on Iran’s nuclear commitments and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This came just days after Trump had publicly declared the deal “largely finalized,” and the reversal frustrated mediators and regional allies who had been pressing both sides to hold the line and avoid a return to full-scale combat.
The EURUSD has seen a choppy, back-and-forth session after Friday’s bullish move above the 200-day moving average at 1.16808 and the broken 38.2% retracement level. Buyers have struggled to build on that breakout, leading to a pullback that has taken the pair back toward key near-term support. The low price today reached 1.1642, putting the focus on the 100-hour moving average at 1.16378 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.16287. Those moving averages represent the next important downside targets and a break below them would give sellers more control.
On the topside, the pair faces a resistance zone between 1.16469 and 1.16669. Buyers need to push back above and stay above that area to regain momentum and shift the focus back toward Friday’s highs and the 200-day moving average. Until then, the EURUSD remains trapped between key support and resistance levels, with traders looking for the next catalyst to determine the next directional move.
The technical story for the USDJPY is defined by support at the 100 hour MA at 159.355 and the 200 hour MA at 159.174. On Friday, sellers took the pair below both with a break of the 200 hour MA by a few pips, but like the EURUSD failure, the USDJPY also failed on the break. That MA (along with the 100 hour MA) remains a key support target. On the topside, the swing area between 159.70 and 159.96 are the next upside targets to get to and through.
The GBPUSD like the EURUSD, has seen up and down price action today. ON the downside the low reached 1.3446 and found support near the 100 and 200 hour MAs near 1.3439 to 1.3443. Those MAs and the 200 day MA at 1.34208 are key downside targets to get to and through to increase the selling bias.
On the topside, the 100 day MA at 1.34749 remains a key target to get to and through. The high reached 1.3476 today – just above that MA, but backed off. Getting and staying above is more bullish.
The greenback is the strongest vs the NZD (although it is a holiday in New Zealand today and higher stock prices). The NZDUSD is down -0.56% on the day. Tee fall comes after stretching above the high from May at 0.58899 on Friday to the highest level since March 2 with a rise to 0.5993, but momentum failed and the price moved below the old high into the close of the week. Today, the price moved lower in the Asian session and has recently traded at the session lows as traders push back to the downside off of the failure.
Looking at other markets, the US stocks are higher in pre-market trading with the:
- Dow up 235 points
- S&P up 24 points
- Nasdaq is up 85 points
In the US debt market, the US yields are mixed with the shorter end up and the longer end (30 year) lower.
- 2 year trading above 4.00% at 4.0369% or 2.3 basis points
- 10 year is trading at 4.461% up 0.8 basis points
- 30 year trading at 4.981% down -0.11 basis points. Staying below the 5.00% level keeps the downside the bias in control
The price of crude oil moved to a low of $86.35 on Friday, and bounced. Today the low has come in at $88.35 but is back above the $90 currently at $90.20. THe 100 hour MA is at $90.29 with the price trading above and below that MA target and bias defining level. Move above and stay above is more bullish but buyers are being tested by sellers near the MA level currently. Traders are awaiting the next shove. PS on the downside the 50% of the move up from the December 2025 low comes in at $87.29. Below that, and traders will start to eye the 100 day MA at $83.67.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
