Inflation moving in the right direction, a cut is likely in Q4Has pencilled in four cuts for 2025Wants to be ‘absolutely certain’ inflation will return to 2% before an initial cut that should be seen as the first in a series, that is the reason for patienceShares of goods rising 5% or more has fallen below 20%Inflation remains chief concern, businesses say they see no cliff ahead for the jobs marketCan achieve 2% inflation with a job market that remains tight by historical standardsremains confidence that shelter inflation will ‘fall back into line’GDP and jobs market data point to an ‘orderly deceleration’ in activity that will balance supply and demand, lower inflation
Picture Jerome Powell delivering a rate cut in Q4 and saying that it’s the start of a series. The market certainly wouldn’t dislike that Fed funds are priced at 4.12% for October 2025. That’s a tad lower than Bostic is forecasting. Note that Bostic is also in line with the median in the dot plot.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
