There are still lags to policy transmission that are playing outOpen to the idea that rate hikes are not constraining the economy as much as the Fed thinksThat is given the ‘remarkable’ strength in the economy that they are seeingServices, shelter price-setters still have room to push prices higherWill proceed ‘deliberately’ on policy
He definitely doesn’t sound like someone who is ready to lean towards cutting rates. If the recent trend in the data keeps up, we might see traders push back the Fed market pricing once again going into the July meeting. Currently, the odds of a September move are at ~70% with the first full 25 bps rate cut priced in for November. In total, traders are seeing ~45 bps of rate cuts for the remainder of this year.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
