Goldman’s forecast of sustained central bank buying at 50 tonnes a month through 2026, easing to 40 tonnes in 2027, provides a durable structural floor for gold prices even as the monthly pace moderates from earlier peaks. The record share of central banks signalling intent to raise reserves adds a demand backstory that materially limits downside risk. China’s estimated 24-tonne contribution in April warrants particular attention given the opacity of Beijing’s official reserve reporting; any acceleration or deceleration in Chinese purchasing could move prices more sharply than the aggregate figures imply.
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Goldman Sachs estimates central banks bought 59 tonnes of gold in April, with China accounting for 24 tonnes, and forecasts 50 tonnes/month in 2026 and 40 in 2027.
Summary:
- Global central bank gold purchases totalled 59 tonnes in April on Goldman’s nowcast, with China estimated to have contributed 24 tonnes
- The monthly buying pace has moderated to around 50 tonnes on both three-month and 12-month moving average bases
- Goldman views the diversification trend as structural rather than cyclical
- A World Gold Council survey of 76 central banks found a record 45% plan to increase their own gold reserves over the next 12 months
- Around 90% of respondents expect global central bank gold holdings to rise, with the remainder anticipating broadly stable levels
- Goldman forecasts central bank accumulation of 50 tonnes a month in 2026, easing to 40 tonnes a month in 2027
Global central banks purchased an estimated 59 tonnes of gold in April, with China alone accounting for around 24 tonnes, Goldman Sachs said in a research note that described the broader shift toward gold in official reserves as structural rather than cyclical.
The figures, drawn from Goldman’s proprietary nowcast model, show the monthly pace of buying has moderated to around 50 tonnes on both a three-month seasonally adjusted and 12-month moving average basis. Despite the softer pace compared with earlier peaks, the bank sees no reason to revise its structural outlook, forecasting continued central bank accumulation of 50 tonnes a month through 2026 before easing to 40 tonnes a month in 2027.
A separate World Gold Council survey of 76 central banks, conducted between February and May, lends weight to that view. A record 45% of respondents said they expect to increase their own gold reserves over the next 12 months, the highest reading in the survey’s history. Around 90% anticipated that global central bank gold holdings would rise over the period, with the remainder expecting broadly stable levels. No respondent expected a decline.
The results underscore a growing conviction among reserve managers that gold’s role in official portfolios is expanding, partly in response to geopolitical uncertainty and a broader reassessment of dollar-denominated asset risk. China’s estimated contribution to April buying is notable given the strategic significance of its reserve management decisions, though official data from Beijing on gold holdings can lag considerably, making real-time tracking difficult.
Goldman’s forecasts imply that central bank demand will remain one of the most consistent structural supports for gold prices over the next two years, even as monthly figures fluctuate. The combination of record survey intent and sustained buying projections points to a market in which official sector demand is unlikely to fade quickly, even if the pace continues to edge lower from recent highs.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
