For now, markets are taking in the calm and it will need some time in gauging the supposed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As things stand, the situation remains that the waterway is tightly controlled by Iran, as reported earlier here. But in terms of ship tracking data, there are some improvements at least compared to the weeks before.
Through Monday and Tuesday, there is an estimated number of 30-40 vessels crossing the strait for each day. That at least according to the likes of Kpler, ASXMarine, and Windward AI.
And so far, there are at least seven Qatari LNG tankers making their way through the strait with a couple of big tankers and commercial vessels involved. However, the Strait of Hormuz tracker did note zero outbound crude oil tanker exits (with AIS) on Tuesday.
For the most part, the only oil tankers that are doing the crossing this week all belong to Iran. That as sanctions have been lifted. Surprise, surprise. Not.
So, it doesn’t really matter whether or not there will be tolls along the strait. The fact remains that passage is still very much tightly controlled and that is the only thing that counts. There is essentially still no free movement. And certainly not anywhere near what Trump claims it to be:
“Yesterday, 19 million barrels of oil flowed out of the Strait of Hormuz, a very beautiful place.. That’s the most oil in the history of the strait. You’ve never seen anything like it. It’s called an oil gush and most importantly, I did it for one reason – 99% for this – Iran will never have a nuclear weapon and they’ve agreed to that. Now we’re leaving Iran with no navy, no airforce, no anti-aircraft, no missile capability, no nuclear programme. And we’re getting along quite well.”
Well, can’t blame him for keeping up appearances. It’s all just to keep the illusion alive and to keep kicking the can down the road.
As mentioned before, Stage 3 looks very much done and dusted. We’re now moving on with Stage 4/5:
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
