The Canadian dollar is in focus in early North American trade today with the June jobs report teed up.
The consensus — as it alwasy seems to be — is +10K but Canadian employment numbers are wildly volatile. The prior reading was +87.8K, which was the strongest reading since December 2024. You can get a sense of the choppiness in the data from the chart.
USD/CAD is trading down 13 pips to 1.4152 today. I spoke with Reuters yesterday about the loonie and was on BNN Monday making the case for a tactical bounce. Right now, the war and USMCA are clouding everything for the loonie but the latest Business Outlook Survey from the BOC highlighted pent-up and growing business investment that will ultimately bear fruit.
In today’s number I’ll be looking at wage indication and any sign of acceleration. I’m also watching the participation rate and how it’s opening a CAD-positive gap over the United States.
The report is due at the bottom of the hour at 8:30 am ET. The consensus on the unemployment rate is 6.6%, unchanged from May.
This article was written by flc97fe4880a4b454993821fe0b770a597 at investinglive.com.
