FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Oil prices rallied on Friday as traders hedged into
the weekend risk amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
Both sides continue to exchange strikes, but the
catalyst for the latest surge was a Washington Post report, citing a US
official, saying that the US is
planning for a wider war and
that the Pentagon is increasing the number of military aircraft in the Middle
East.
We’ve seen this kind of military buildup back in February
before the US-Iran war broke out, so the risk in the short-term remains
elevated and this is going to keep oil prices underpinned. Without a clear
de-escalation the downside will remain limited.
CRUDE OIL
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil finally broke out of the recent consolidation at the 78.00
support and it’s now approaching the major downward trendline around the 87.00
handle. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a
defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop back into the 78.00
support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into the 97.00 handle next.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we have
an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can
expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep
pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to extend the pullback into the 78.00 support next.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we have
another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe.
The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep targeting new
highs, while the sellers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the
next trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
On Thursday,
we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the
week with the Flash US PMIs. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
