FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
The S&P 500 has finally broken out of the range and extended the gains
into new record highs following positive US-Iran developments. In fact, the
market opened with a positive gap on Monday after Trump called off the planned weekend
strikes on Iran.
On Tuesday, Qatari mediators said that the language for a possible US-Iran
agreement had been drafted and the momentum then gathered pace when US Treasury
Secretary Bessent confirmed that an Iran deal could have come as soon as yesterday
and would have included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The market kept
on surging on easing inflation concerns and reduced Fed tightening risk.
The gains started to get trimmed late yesterday probably because the anticipated timeline for the deal passed without
an announcement. Nevertheless, the hopes for a deal will likely keep the market
supported for now unless we get another escalation.
The next test will come next week with the release of the US CPI report.
The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole
Symposium.
A hot report will likely trigger a selloff
in the short-term, with traders increasing rate hike bets. A soft report, on
the other hand, should reduce further the risk of Fed tightening and give the
S&P 500 another boost.
S&P 500 TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On
the daily chart, we can see the S&P 500 broke above the 7,640 resistance and extended the gains
into the 7,800 level before pulling back a bit. We might have an ascending
channel here and the price got rejected around the top trendline. The sellers
will likely continue to step in around these levels with a defined risk above
the recent high to position for a drop into the bottom trendline. The buyers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the
bullish bets into new highs.
S&P 500
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On
the 4 hour chart, we have an
upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can
expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position
for a rally into new record highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking below the trendline and the 7,640 support to increase
the bearish bets into the lower bound of the channel around the 7,350 level.
S&P 500 TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as from a risk management perspective the buyers will
have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline, while the sellers will
need a break below the trendline and the support to open the door for new lows.
The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today, we get the latest
US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP
report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
