- US July NFIB small business optimism index 99.8 vs 97.5 expected
- Another cargo ship reportedly struck by the Houthis in the Red Sea
- UK stats office to only decide in July next year on plausibility of transition to improved labour market data
- Italy trade surplus widens to €4.2 billion in June as exports accelerate
- The S&P 500 rally stalls as US-Iran deal gets delayed and the focus shifts to the US CPI report
- Yen buying likely to stay more muted for the time being – MUFG
- Gold extends the rally after the soft NFP, but the US CPI could wipe out all the gains
- Singapore doubles 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% on tech cycle upgrade
- Oil price prediction: Crude holds above $82 as bulls target a breakout past $82.55
- What are the main events for today?
- FX option expiries for 11 August 10am New York cut
- RBA governor Bullock: We did not discuss a rate cut at this meeting, only a rate hike or to hold
- Bitcoin analysis shows the crypto king holds near $64k as order flow improves, but $65k remains the real test
- RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August monetary policy meeting, as expected
- Heads up: RBA monetary policy decision at the bottom of the hour
It’s been a relatively calm session with limited data and news flow. The highlight was the RBA’s rate decision where the central bank held the Cash Rate steady at 4.35% as widely expected. The central bank has also released the updated macroeconomic forecasts where inflation was revised lower and unemployment higher. The Cash Rate assumption for 2027 has also been revised lower to indicate potentially just one more rate hike ahead if needed.
RBA Governor Bullock reiterated their hawkish stance and stressed that the Board had not discussed a rate cut at this meeting, only a rate hike or a hold. She also added that a rate hike is still in front of their mind suggesting that the bar for an additional rate hike remains relatively low.
The US NFIB Small Optimism Index rose to 99.8 in July compared to 97.4 in the prior month, moving the index above the 52-year average of 98.0 and reaching the highest level since August 2025. The July increase was broad-based, with eight of the index’s 10 components improving, while two declined. The strongest contribution came from hiring plans, pointing to a renewed willingness among small businesses to expand their workforces. There was also improvement in plans to make capital expenditure, although uncertainty remains elevated.
On the geopolitical front, the Qatari foreign minister spokesperson said that negotiations between Iran and Oman are now in an advanced stage and there was positive feedback from both sides. The New York Times yesterday reported that Iran talks with Oman on shipping routes in the Hormuz strait were separate from discussions to fully reopen the waterway. Iran insists that the strait will remain closed until the US agrees to Iran’s demands.
For background, Iran’s demands include never threatening Iran with any language or insult the sanctities of the nation, ending the war and aggression against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq forever, lifting the naval blockade and withdraw its military forces from around Iran, paying the damages of the two wars of aggression and imposition on Iran, lifting the cruel and illegal sanctions against the Iranian nation, unconditionally releasing the frozen and stolen assets of the Iranian people. That’s peanuts…
In the markets, the price action has been mostly rangebound as traders await the US CPI report due tomorrow. We saw some action in the Australian dollar, with a drop on the rate decision and a recovery during Bullock’s press conference. Oil prices have also saw a notable decline following the Qatari foreign minister spokesperson’s remarks and the news of Pakistani’s interior minister arriving in Tehran for talks.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
