The NZDUSD has been stuck in a narrow 49-pip trading range over the last seven trading days, highlighting a market that has seen plenty of intraday and day-to-day price action but very little net progress.
The broader move had been more bullish following the June 26 low, but that momentum has transitioned into a more neutral, consolidative phase. Evidence of that balance can be seen in the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, which have converged near 0.5878–0.58799. The sideways price action has allowed those moving averages to catch up with the market, and they now serve as the key short-term barometers for buyers and sellers.
The 100-hour moving average comes in at 0.58799, while the 200-hour moving average is just below at 0.5878. Trading above the 100-hour MA gives buyers a modest advantage. Conversely, a move below the 200-hour MA — and staying below — would tilt the short-term bias more in favor of sellers.
For now, however, the bigger story remains the range. Traders are looking toward the extremes at 0.58587 on the downside and 0.59066 on the upside for the next breakout and, importantly, momentum away from the recent consolidation.
A break below 0.58587 would give sellers more control and have traders looking toward the 50% midpoint at 0.58092 as a potential downside target.
On the topside, a break above 0.59066 would shift the bias more firmly in favor of buyers. That would put swing levels near 0.5918 and 0.5928 in play, followed by another swing target near 0.5967.
Until one of the range extremes is broken, the NZDUSD remains stuck in the mud, with the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages defining the battle between buyers and sellers.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
