A brief summary of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand preview from ANZ, Anz expect the RBNZ to hold rates at the August 14 meeting, but signal potential cut later this year
ANZ expects RBNZ to keep OCR at 5.50% next weekBank sees potential for RBNZ to signal OCR cut later in 2024Recent data points to slowing economy and solid disinflation progressANZ puts 10-15% odds on RBNZ switching to easing bias at this meetingNon-tradable inflation still high at 5.4% y/y vs RBNZ’s 4.1% expectationQ2 labor market data stronger than RBNZ expected overallMarkets pricing in 89bp of cuts by November 2024 and 222bp by November 2025ANZ warns of potential market disappointment if RBNZ holds steadyBank sees upside risks for NZD on any repricing of rate cut expectations
Key takeaway: While recent data supports earlier rate cuts, ANZ thinks RBNZ will likely wait for more evidence before easing policy. Markets appear overly dovish heading into the meeting.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
