The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for GDP has worsened to -3.8% from -2.8%. Adjusting for imports and exports of gold the growth is forecast at -1.4 percent. In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -3.7 percent on April 1, down from -2.8 percent on March 28. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -1.4 percent. After this morning’s construction spending report from the US Census Bureau and incorporation of the available March data into the models’ dynamic factor model, including manufacturing data from Institute for Supply Management and measures of consumer attitudes from two surveys, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s forecasts of first-quarter real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth declined from 1.5 percent to 0.4 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 3. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
